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August 23, 2007

Cara’s Thursday Report, Aug. 23, 2007, 9:12 AM

Market Chat

One of my biggest complaints is that the sell-side has the playing field tilted in their direction. After the close yesterday, Bank of America bought a $2 billion convertible preferred share stake in Countrywide Financial (CFC), which they say was a bid to bolster the confidence of creditors and investors in the mortgage lender, something I had advocated.

Why did they announce this major event yesterday after-hours? Well, last night CFC surged +19 pct. Who benefited more than Wall Street and their best clients, Friends & Family?

While the public was largely frozen in short positions and/or unable to get in on the action until this morning after CNBC over-hyped the situation, further inflaming emotions before the market open.

That is an insult. The same thing happened ten years ago in the hours before I made a formal presentation to the chairs of all of Canada’s securities commissions. They were either deaf or too busy in the service of the sell-side to rock the boat.

That time was the after-hours announcement of accounting problems/fraud in Cendant, a major corporation listed on the NYSE. I stood at the speaker’s podium, in an over-crowded auditorium at the Ontario Securities Commission and pointed to each of the commissioners in order, asking them if they had a chance to sell their shares overnight as the stock plunged in half? I told them I couldn’t, and I didn’t think any of them could either. But the stock volume set an all-time record overnight before opening at 11am on the NYSE where it set another record.

How pathetic that the sell-side and their best clients, Friends & Family, got in on the market action while the rest of us were frozen out. This sucks big time. There is no conceivable reason why that announcement could have not been made fifteen minutes before the open with a 15-minute “no trading” window to facilitate full and proper disclosure to all the market.

Yesterday and earlier today, we saw the expected buying wave in equity markets across the world. Today will see more in the US and Americas.

Wednesday’s rally was spurred on by rumors of TD Ameritrade (AMTD +4.9 pct) and E*Trade Financial (ETFC -2.1 pct) holding merger discussions. Ameritrade CEO Joe Moglia, who was a college football coach for 16 years, knows how to whip the emotions of the disenhearted. He was all over the media during the day saying he couldn’t say anything. (LOL)

Volatility dropped sharply as the CBOE Volatility Index was down -9.4 pct. The DJIA (+145.27), S&P 500 (+16.95), and Nasdaq Composite (+31.50) closed up strongly.

Basic Materials (XLB), specifically chemicals, paper, steel, and nonferrous metals, led the rally. Goldminers were strong too. Aussie company BHP Billiton (BHP) reported record annual earnings of US$13.42 billion, which helped.

Meanwhile the Financials (XLF) sold off into the rally midday before recovering near the close. Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and Wachovia (WB) announced they borrowed $500 million each from the Federal Reserve's discount window. And they say they did it "for America". (LOL)

I don’t see how anybody can think that Fed rate cuts or discount window use encouragement is a good thing longer term. These things only happen when the Fed sees problems. In the short run, there are boosts to the market, but longer-term, the prices usually fall for fundamental reasons.

House-builder Toll Brothers (TOL: +5.0 pct) announced 3Q net fell -85 pct to $26.5 million. Traders anticipated higher losses.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgages to refinance existing loans fell -6.4 pct in the week ended Aug. 17, and the volume of applications for mortgage loans decreased by -5.5 pct W/W.

In the energy markets, the US Energy Department inventory guestimate of Crude Oil surprised analysts with an increase for the first time in seven weeks, up 1.9 million barrels. However, vehicle gasoline inventory dropped -5.7 million bbls to 196.2 million. Distillate inventories increased +1.3 million bbls to 129 million, while refinery utilization fell to 91.6 pct of capacity from 91.8 pct last week. Nymex Crude Oil turned negative after the release of this inventory data.

As equity prices lifted during the day, US treasury prices pulled back, sending yields higher, but the short-term paper is still over-bought and must correct more.

The USD moved higher against the Yen. So, reduced fears of Fed interest rate cuts now, as expected, have traders returning to the Carry Trade (ie, borrowing yen at relatively low interest rates to purchase higher-yielding currency and stocks and bonds denominated in non-Yen currency).

Yesterday, European shares traded higher on BHP's record earnings report. The FTSE lifted +1.81 pct and the DAX closed up +1.02 pct.

Today, these markets are strong, and pre-market open US equity futures are strong as well.


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar

Another excellent Economic Calendar is provided by BMONesbittBurns.

Econoday Weekly International Report


The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

Here are the Wednesday session Cara 100 gainers.


Here are Cara 100 losers from Wednesday.


Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Wednesday session.


Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes.

Starting last Friday, the VIX has gone quiet. Now money flow is starting to move back into equities, particularly the higher beta sectors, industry groups and stocks.


Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus


I am appreciative to the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc for providing the Cara 100 summaries.


Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

RSI > 70 (2)

RSI < 30 (2) TGP is also < 30 but the chart is incorrect.

Here are the Cara 100 stocks trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for yesterday:

Moody’s (MCO) dropped into the Accumulation Zone, which I pointed out yesterday. Then the stock traded up +2.0 pct. The Daily RSI-7 is at 27.3.

A BUY ALERT would be signalled as soon as there is any strength in the Daily that would take the RSI-7 up over 30.

“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”.


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

The DJIA lifted to 13236. It has the feel to me to be good for a further rally of 250 to 750 points. Markets will start trading within a range again, and will not trend higher to new levels, as I see it.

This is a time where we have to stick to our plan, and watch the RSI-7 and MACD indicators of the price data.


NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The Nasdaq Composite lifted again yesterday, and will likely move up again today.



International Equity Markets Review


Asia-Pacific

The indexes across Asia-Pacific equity markets were up, some strongly. India was down a bit, however.

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

The Nikkei Dow was strongly up (+2.54 pct) to 16316.

Yesterday I said, “Traders should watch (i) the Dollar: Yen trade; (ii) the EWJ (Japan ETF that trades in USD in NY); and (iii) the key Japanese stocks and ADRs that trade on the NYSE to determine how the Nikkei 225 is likely to open tomorrow. The recent Yen strength has really hurt the Japanese exporters, including the auto manufacturers. As I wrote last Thursday, I would be bottom-fishing the top quality auto makers, if, as, and when the Yen weakens, which it has now with the Bank Of Japan liquidity injections, and a return (for now at least) of the Carry Trade.”

That all happened on cue.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Today, Singapore was up again +1.49 pct to 3371.

Indonesia lifted strongly a second straight day (+2.65 pct after being up +3.51 pct), closing at 2117.7.


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

The Shanghai Composite gained +1.05 pct today to 5032.5, which is a fresh all-time closing record high. The People’s Bank of China raised rates again earlier this week, and inflation is a problem there, but traders are happy that stocks are lifting.

The Shanghai Composite has rocketed from 1000 to 5000 in just over 24 months. Pegging the Yuan to the declining USD has really helped.

Isn’t it something that the talk two years ago was that the Shanghai market would always be terrible because all those inefficient state-run companies would hold China back? Hmmm. Where are the critics today?

In any case, you can go back to the archives at that time and see how positive I was on China and how I wrote up several great Chinese companies.

When it happens, the end of the Carry Trade and the strengthening of the Yen will hurt China because imports from Japan (and from other neighboring countries) will be more costly. A some point, either raised interest rates or a too weak Yuan will force the Chinese authorities to release the peg to the USD – at least much faster than they have been.


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .

The Hong Kong market rocketed +2.77 pct after the prior day’s +2.84 pct to close at 22967. That’s called a moon-moon shot. (LOL). An attempt to break the recent cycle high will be made within a month, I believe.


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Today, the Bombay Stock Exchange BSE 30 Sensex index lost -0.59 pct to 14164.

I believe a new attempt at an all-time closing record high will be made over the next month.

I continue to like HDB and IBN. The panic sell-off a week ago in those bank stocks set up a terrific buying opportunity, but also shows how volatile the Indian market can be.


Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

The All Ordinaries index of Australia rocketed +2.54 pct today, most at the open, to close at 6150.


Europe>

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


There is a broad rally today (8:59am ET) across Europe.

Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

The FTSE is up +0.57 pct to 6231 today in mid session.


US Dollar Review

Here is the chart of the recent trading.

The trade-weighted USD is down sharply (about a half point) at 81.096 this morning (8:30am ET).


Oil Review

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Here is the e-miNY Oct-07 Crude Oil chart.

It is presently (about 9:00am) at 70.05.

Previously I wrote, “The response to Hurricane Dean and the simultaneous broad market sell-off in the US caused Energy to sell down to over-sold levels. I think there will be a recovery here over the next month, to put Crude Oil into the low to mid 70’s.”


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.

Spot gold is presently (about 8:50am) at 663.30, up over 5.00 from the same time yesterday. The $USD is sharply down. I expect that will help boost the PM prices.

Yesterday I wrote, “As I say, “Soon to rally”. In fact, there will not be a continuation of higher broad equity market prices without higher prices for the gold metal and the goldminer stocks. I am short-term bullish.”


Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.

Spot silver is stronger today (9:05am ET), presently at 11.79, down from 11.87 earlier, but well up from yesterday morning. I think spot silver will move higher today as the $USD stays weak.

Yesterday, I wrote, “Room to grow. Time to buy the silve

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on August 23, 2007 09:12:38 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary