Dear Bill,

You say " I sure hope Crystallex doesn't suffer a tragic ending, but somehow I think that books and movies will be made..."

Bill, they don't make movies about operable, licensed and fully permitted gold mines that do nothing but produce gold, do they? I feel I should ask, then, do you mean to say that your opinion of the KRY scenario has materially changed?

Chris

Moin from Germany,

Hussman has a great quote via James Grant (“Michael Milken, Meet Sewell Avery” 1989)

“The way to wealth in a bull market is debt. The way to oblivion in a bear market is also debt, and nobody rings a bell. Easy access to credit facilitates the marginal transaction. It enlarges the gross national product, expands the debt industry, and creates the rationale for a future relaxation of lending standards. It hefts up prosperity by its bootstraps and makes it something more than it would otherwise be. It produces stupendous fees and underwriting commissions for investment bankers. Good ideas become bad ideas through a competitive process of “Can you top this?” But when the cycle turns, the process must swing into reverse. Marginal transactions, financed by debt, must be unwound through foreclosure or bankruptcy. Asset values, propped up by debt, must fall, and thereby reduce other asset values in a chain reaction.”

Amen

Bill, as a suggestion, instead of posting a seperate "Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat" every day, simply link the commentary to the "discourse." It will be understood that the discourse portion is seperate. The goal should be always simplyfing the web page as much as possible.

From a cultural perspective, "Discourse" and "Chat" are by now disabused in the internet world.

As far as the troublesome ISP is concerned, their equipment is probably somewhat obsolete, depending on how long ago it was installed, and how much investment was put into the network, what type and how its rated.(wireless is still evolving, so if it was intalled prior to 2003, then its old)

Upgrading network equipment requires a complete structural change in the way the entire network is set up. We're talking major infrastructural adjustments, not just minor changes. The ISP may not be able to provide the service you are demanding.

Secondly, it might have something to do where you have your website posted and on what kind of server. This might require a change of host, or access to more bandwidth. But I doubt that.

Here at my home computer, I have experienced no problems accessing your website in terms of speed, so I believe your uplink is the source of the delays. As often as is the case, ISPs cannot deliver on advertised rates of feed.

You might have to live with the delays and plan accordingly, since it would be impossible to gain performance or move to where they have a dedicated optical network, like say, in Sweden.

The story of Sigrit Lothberg:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19832184/

FranSix ... Heja Sverige!

Etrade (ETFC) just getting dumped on recently... I'm excited to nab this one on the cheap

"Heja Sverige!"

Heja, eh?

As an ironic aside, Bill (my apologies to address you directly) it may be that you are bumping up against the limits of the software scripting for your website. That "the boss" of the website is being placed at the "bottom of the qeue."

Respecting how the internet works and arriving at a compromise is always an accepted challenge when working with technology. (I think I sound ridiculous, but oh well.)

Well, the miners are getting crapped on yet again today. Ironic in that the fundamentals for gold remain so strong. Maybe someone with more years of experience with these stocks can correct me, but isn't August usually the best time to be a buyer?

"They don't make movies about operable, licensed and fully permitted gold mines that do nothing but produce gold, do they?"

Gold, 1974, Roger Moore, Susannah York, Ray Milland

BMD catching a bid...
adding to UNG at 38.37...
SLW/GFI/GDX for a trade...

Bill, I'm fine with with everything you said, but I would like to point out that I've been a Crystallex shareholder many, many more times than most of those you refer to narrowly as "shareholders". I may have done 50 round trips in KRY, hoping, as we all do, for a permit. So while I respect your opinion and your right to limit discourse (and do agree generally to do as you ask above), I reject in principle the notion that I somehow do not possess standing to either inquire about or to elocute upon this rich and fascinating subject.

I am a shareholder - strategy was buy and hold till yes or no on permit, nothing has changed in 6 months for me. Still waiting

I'm rolling up my cuffs as it's starting to flow in here..... Rich and fascinating?

It's gossip Chris.

That is not fascinating or rich.

Craig,

This is silly. When I said rich and fascinating, I was not referring to gossip. I have neither referenced gossip nor have I enquired about it, I was asking Bill a question about something he said, that is all.

Is there any more information or speculation about the listing of Western Goldfields on -- the AMEX if I remember correctly.

TIA

anyone else taking a note of the fact that XAU crashed right through support at 142 and that the miner price gains of July have been wiped clean?

This is looking rather ugly and not very reassuring for another summer rally.

"gold" + "ray milland" takes me back to a 1971 Movie of the Week-think it was called River of Gold-

NGAS..6.56 for a trade...

I am a KRY shareholder. I'm waiting for a buyer of the company to step up. Ivanhoe (IVN) worked out quite nicely for me because of the Mongolia risk and my patience. Still, I sold too early after they popped. KRY has me more worried. First, KRY has no Robert Friedland. Second, I look at Aurelian and its price is stuck due to country risk. Even with a KRY permit the Chavez story will live on and the stock price will be constrained. I will cash out when a buyer for the company steps up. So, I'm not a loyal shareholder.

Bill -- I, and a great many others, appreciate the efforts you make to educate and inform us all. I am sorry you continue to experience connectivity and site management issues, but hope earnestly that neither will dissuade you from continuing to serve our community as a whole, as you have done so generously and selflessly to date. In short: Thanks!

Re: KRY. One gets terribly tired of having the negative, and only the negative repeated, first thing Monday morning, no matter how it is couched. Thank you, BIll for reiterating those positives. It is always good to hear both sides of every issue, so perhaps those of us still holding should always speak up and remind ourselves of what they were and are, like chas and Fred did, above. :-)

Re: KRY. One gets terribly tired of having the negative, and only the negative repeated, first thing Monday morning, no matter how it is couched. Thank you, BIll for reiterating those positives. It is always good to hear both sides of every issue, so perhaps those of us still holding should always speak up and remind ourselves of what they were and are, like chas and Fred did, above. :-) Long, KRY.

In the fall of 1966 while taking a cab from the Ithaca airport to start my freshman year at Cornell, I remember the marquee of the State Theater advertising "Tarzan and the Valley of Gold".

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0061067/

Everytime I go long I get sacked. Not any big bucks because I won't allow that to happen. KRY is my only holding underwater; but I also am like chas; a man in waiting. This is a very unique situation for me because I never get underwater in a trading stock. If a stock does not do what I expect, I get out in full. This is a shorters market. Unless I short, I am going to sit on my hands at this point. This could be 2000 all over again. I don't plan on becoming an "investor" in my trading account.

Housing's not doing too well either. I only watch CTX, DHI, HOV, LEN, and PHM... but those 5 are getting hit hard. There seems to be no bottom for them.

“The story [of Gold],” wrote Vincent Canby, “is about an evil plan to control the international price of gold by sabotaging one of [Africa’s] largest gold mines by flooding it with an underground sea. The plan is nicked in the last reel by Roger Moore, standing up to his neck in swirling mineshaft waters….” Should we shareholders view this as a prescient metaphor for the current Venezuelan melodrama? Who’s playing Roger Moore?

Ok guys, let's get this VERY clear. When I have referenced gossip, It's been for the purpose of exploring that stories possible implications on stock price. When I comment on the stock personally, it is almost always from a purely technical, charts/moving averages type perspective.

I am hopeful that you guys want what I want, which is a searching and forthright exploration of all facts that materially alter the perception of value, which, you won't hear any from me, but which can, sometimes, include gossip. The other day fortunes were made in HOV buying on "gossip" which, I'm sure, you wish I had expounded on if it led to your purchase and profitable sale of that stock.

We're either for real, or we're not, eh?

Sorry - don't know how the double post occured, as I wasn't having any trouble with loading the site. I'm so sorry you continue to have those problems, Bill - I've been wrestling with Verizon over big problems with them - I just moved to a better location and the service is worse. I can only imagine how frustrating it is to have such trouble in Paradise! :-) Thank you, Bill, for perservering, and for all you do for us.

OIH/RIG for a trade..

not so sure this is the day to go short...feels too easy and it's a little too negative...

ALOHA !!

number2son ... Yes, perhaps that is why the PM shares are down. Why aren't you buying?

Here is a link to average monthly POG rise since 1971.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/2foa5e

When you talk about "repricing risk" in terms of the stock market and real estate then perhaps you should consider the historical inherent risk of owning fiat currencies, especially the US Dollar and Euro of which the Euro makes up better than 70% of a USDX weighting. I love how fiat monetary systems create this game of "weighting" ... "adjustments" and "modifications" to the assessed values of paper investments. This is exactly how this corrupt money system corrupts investments. Investors have no real sense of value because there is no stable standard to measure value other than credit ratings and "weights", all measures susceptable to manipulation by government and banks the exact two culprits who created "fiat" in the first place. Hummmm ... could there be a connection there? Its VEGAS BABY ... All these casinos(stock markets)with all their various colorful "chips"(fiat money).

When was the last time a US Dollar was actually a US Dollar without "weightings"? When was the last time a US Dollar actually bought a dollars worth of goods and services. I believe that would have to be back in 1913. What a coincidence that was the year the US Federal Reserve was created and it has been downhill for the US Dollar ever since ... IN TERMS OF VALUE! The problem with fiat currencies is that they never hold a constant value over the long term. So long as we live in a World where money is corrupt "repricing risk" will always be the only true long lasting standard of measure! I am not thrilled with the prospects of such risk.

To prove my point here is a chart showing the purchasing power of various fiat currencies in comparison with gold since 1900.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/28e4bv

The only fiat currency that can keep up with gold is the Swiss Franc at .28USD. The Euro, which is an extension of the DeutscheMark isn't even as valuable as a mark was in 1997, prior to becoming the Euro in 1999. I think the Germans would have been better off staying with the Mark! It is the "weighting" with the US Dollar that is causing the Euro to go up in foreign exchange markets.

My point is that we are all making investment decisions based on constantly shifting sands. This is why I am sticking with gold as real money. It is the only investment that makes sense, especially in times when fiat currencies are crumbling. If you apply the guilt by association method then PM shares will also have "value" since they are the only "printing presses" of real money! If you want value without ever having to fear bankruptcy then you have only one choice for your portfolio ... GOLD and SILVER ... I call it monetary insurance! Unlike CDO and CDS and the con artists that issue such fraud monetary metals and for that matter any old industrial metals will always have demand and will never file Chapter 7!

As Bill says there is a rotation out of riskier paper into more stable hard assets like commodities and the monetary metals. Everything has a cycle ... Yet if there is a global fiat monetary collapse then you can forget about such cycles except for maybe the new 100 year fiat monetary cycle which will end in 2013. That marks 100 years of US Federal Reserve monetary control by private bankers! Hummmm, I wonder who has benefitted most from that little socio-economic experiment?

BMD-expect quarterly earnings mid-August..

BMD-expect quarterly earnings mid-August..

According to a recent Barrons article recent volatility is good for IBKR.
ETFC is punished too much for the limited sub prime exposure IMO.

Adding to IBKR and ETFC here.

Hmmm.

All my defensives are up, PG, NZT, JNJ.

Everything else is swirling in the bowl.

XLF is up, I shorted BSC until it bottomed and then bought and sold. Now it's rebounding, but I trust it as far as I can throw Co. headquarters.

I'm holding my SDS until Ben sings his tune. Right now he's the Kenny G of the market though....he only HAS one tune.

Interesting little rotation into big pharma (NVS, GSK,SNY) for no apparent reason. I have a small underwater position in NVS. USG is still getting taken to the cleaners because of housing. I have a small deeply underwater position there. Maybe Warren Buffett will save me. The legendary fund manager Bill Miller has made some significant bets on housing the past year or so. Ouch! How about Mastercard, how far can it fall back? I never did understand its rocket take-off. Still, it's up 160% in the past year. My sympathy to those who bought MA late though. I have no position in MA. What will the headlines read this week? Blame the Chinese? Blame OPEC? Blame greedy gold miners?

Bill, the option premiums on CFC are so high now that I was able to widen the short end of a diagonal put spread at minimal cost. This will pay off well so long as CFC continues its downtrend.

It's telling that the latest CFC press release, which are common now, has not helped the stock. It's almost as if the company is desperate to reassure the markets. And each PR release only seems to confirm that desperation and cause another wave of selling.

As for oil, I mentioned Parker Drilling (PKD) as one to watch last week as it was due to report earnings. The stock has been getting hammered as badly as any other right now and may be setting new 52-week lows if the trend continues.

I'm glad I waited.

I caught an analyst on CNBC before the market discussing oil sector stocks. She noted that they are typically weak this time of year, between the end of driving season and the beginning of winter.

And you have to laugh when you see all the sell-siders claiming this is a good time to buy. They sure as heck haven't shown up in the market as far as I can tell.

The financials are resting before the Fed meeting. This week's Fed statement is going to set the tone for the rest of the year, I think. And I'm not sanguine.

Is anyone finding any bargains in the small caps? I do hold companies like PUDC and CPSL, they are quite oversold but they just can't hold a bid.

As for KRY, I'd close my position right now if I weren't certain that this is the event the Chavez government is waiting for before issuing that damned permit. ;)

jiggstoo-you mean who's playing Ray Milland..we need the POG to go up (lol)...

kaimu ... thanks, I just saw your comment. I'm fully allocated right now in miners, and still learning how to better time my buys.

Hello Bill,

Was wondering where you stand in the great Deflation or Inflation debate?

Also how bad do you see this credit contraction becoming in the macro sense?

Thanx

Vernon

I'm in the top 2 percentile in Motley Fool Caps today (654 out of 33841). Wish I could monetize that!

Craig,
I have talked about IB as an alternative to Scottrade. But I have to say that I have always been happy with Ameritrade. I have never had any problems with them. I was a Datek client before the merger. The cost is 9.99/trade, any amount of shares including TSX, bulletin board. 5%+ interest on idle trading money, full balance. Free level II, QuoteTracker, Advanced Analyzer, etc. The level of customer service is execellent. Someone will answer the phone in under 2 minutes or less. I will be staying there.

LOL!
Take a look at WFMI and SBUX! Too funny.

Let me get this right.....Specialty upper end retail food and coffee are up, drugs (JNJ) up, consumer staples (PG) up, and PM's miners all down. Sure a good deal on some of the miners though. AUY in the low 10's? Geez.
GDX is hurting me, but I have to fight the fear and look for deals.

I won't discuss GRS.... and GFI isn't helping.

Kaimu helps a bit. Aloha! It only hurts when I Aloha.

Thank you StkTrader, That is good to know.

Personal references count. Thanks again.

Shark,
It is obvious that your bias towards KRY is negetive and has been since I think around 4 and change. You were talking about buying in at 3.25 when it was at around 3.50, but then you posted no way when it got close. You have posted buy points for others but not including yourself. I don't have a problem with your posts. I just don't understand why you are not in for at a minimum of 1000 shares just to be a player when news does happen. You have believed in the story in the past. Maybe you got burned. I don't know. Others on the board and lurkers with shares may tire of the reminder that they are in a losing position at this point and don't care to be reminded of their position. It's uncomfortable and for some with small trading accounts that bought into the story from Bill's comments it's ego deflating and rubbing salt in their wounds.

2nd -- You are amazing. UNG now 39.30 and moving up fast!

Gas pipeline sub-industry is down 5.93% today with several operators down 9+%!

Bill, Although I don't consider myself to be knowledgeable enough to contribute regarding trading, I very much enjoy your's and others contributions to this excellent site. I do thought think I can, perhaps, offer an insight regarding connectedness outside the U.S.

Four years ago I moved to Israel, which is certainly not a third world country from a technology perspective (although very much a 3rd world country regarding its politics), I have learned quite a bit about being connected outside the U.S.

When I first got here I signed up with the biggest ISP, Netvision. I was constantly struggling with slow uploads and downloads to U.S. websites. Their tech support kept making excuses and telling me that the speeds I was promised was not to U.S. sites. I couldn't understand what they were saying since electrons travel at the speed of light and speed tests to U.S. sites should be only very mildly effected by the distance.

After years of frustration with Netvision, I couldn't stand it anymore and decided to make a switch to another ISP. Amazingly, my speeds increased dramatically to near-U.S. speeds on my speed tests.

Turns out that the router connections outside the local network are the key to performance and they are ISP dependent. You might consider switching ISP's and see what you can find. It is very unlikely that Bermuda, being the financial capital of the Caribbean, doesn't have some ISP who is up to speed.

Tradesman that posts over at Stockhouse is not our Tradesman. That other guy said he never heard of this site. His posts did not reflect the level of understanding the markets anyway. It was obviously not the same Tradesman.

Re: KRY

I have been a long-time reader of this board as well as a holder of a deeply underwater position in KRY. I've never taken offense to any of Shark's comments and I personally don't feel there's any reason to. His mention of any rumors has almost always been motivated by trying to find out if anyone else had heard anything or had any opinions. Further, I don't think any of us can blame someone for expressing frustration with this story...I know I say much worse about KRY to myself at least once a day. Just my 2 cents.

Re: Number2son

First off, I also hold a position in KRY.

In regards to your comment:

"As for KRY, I'd close my position right now if I weren't certain that this is the event the Chavez government is waiting for before issuing that damned permit. ;)"

I have thought about this as well. Since KRY's stock price is essentially at the mercy of the VZ government, is there anyone that could really stop them from meddling in the stock? Is a situation where the VZ gov't makes KRY look dead in the water only to swoop in and turn the tables on short sellers and make money off KRY's stock? Is there anything preventing this situation?

MGIC is fun today.

All I did was ask Bill if HIS opinion changed. That's ALL I did. That's it.

PAYX shows uncommon strategic acumen by announcing widely their entry in the market to buy stock back under their new $1bn program. Guess what? They are going to pay up if they don't want to lose credibility b/c of the ongoing front-running. Another case of buyback at or above 52-week highs. Nice financially-engineering breakout, but anything more than the usual Friends & Family gift; I doubt it...

JML

Off topic news:

iPhone fully unlocked using sim-cloning
http://tinyurl.com/2le6j8

8/6/2007 11:10:18 AM Monday morning, American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (AHM), a real estate invest trust company, revealed that it filed for Chapter 11 for bankruptcy falling prey to the turmoil witnessed in the home lending sector.

be loath to pick this one up at 7

This was yest but not to be missed. Cramer has a temper tantrum on air (midway) and yells at the top of his lungs criticizing Bernanke, desperately asking him to cut the rates because his friends are losing jobs and going out of business. Wait, i thought he was in business for the little guy?

Sorry forgot the link..

http://tinyurl.com/2gvtae

it is shocking. even for JC standards.

Sorry, getting LEND and AHM confused.

Two reasons for a rally (short term)

1) Market is oversold
2) Oil down 4%

Two reasons GDX won't participate:
1) I own it.
2) I bought more this morning.

Hello all,--

Here's another Long - KRY customer; Too longggg!
I sold on the way up and can't resist picking away on the way down. I'll continue holding my breath. I'm hoping for a larger fish to take over and for Hugo to play nice. I'm also long (Small positions)FCX, GLD, GRZ and RNO. --

I love this blog. I've been following many of the links posted by this community. Being at this only about a year, I'm still on a steep learning curve. Thanks for the posts and comments. They really help. I think? --

I keep trying to get my tiny brain wrapped around this Gold vs USD vs M3 vs the worlds perception and reaction to same. It just seems that at some point gold would be more widely recognized as having more value than ,as Bill might say, wooden nickels. --

Would I be right in saying that if gold is not eventually given it's due in relation to the unreported U.S. M3, then Fort Knox is well on it's way to becoming irrelevant? Well it's still a cool looking building.

Take care,
Rookie

Hi Bill,

What would be your top 5 miners to research. I have been researching quite a few miners lateley. But the more I research them the more confused I get.

Thanks. jfs

Anyone take a look at Harmony Gold today?

Last Trade: 10.98
Trade Time: 1:49PM ET
Change: -2.49 (18.49%)

I can't find a related article to explain the plunge. Not good for the GDX etf though.

On another note, I am contemplating moving some money I have been sitting on in a bond fund into Evergreen's precious metals fund (EKWAX) today:

Current top-10 Holdings (46% assets)

Kinross Gold (Canada) N/A 6.19 N/A
Newcrest Mining Ltd N/A 6.02 N/A
BARRICK GOLD CP ABX 5.77 -4.81
RANDGOLD RES LTD GOLD 5.23 -4.96
GOLD FIELDS LTD ADS GFI 4.84 -16.24
MERIDIAN GOLD INC. MDG 4.45 -0.76
YAMANA GOLD INC AUY 4.09 -15.50
ELDORADO GOLD CORP EGO 3.45 7.96
AGNICO EAGLE MINES AEM 3.34 -11.20
Goldman Sachs ([Wts/Rts]) N/A 3.01 N/A

Harmony announced a bad number and the chief quit today. Which internet you using, anyway?

You know, it's a bit of a chicken/egg thing, but perhaps stocks are being steadied and PM's sold in ADVANCE of Bernanke's chit chat tomorrow as part of a coordinated do-nothing strategy, which is likely to be tomorrow's outcome. Uncle Ben WILL feel your pain, however. Count on him for that.

Okay - found a tiny blurb about HMY's chief leaving in a WSJ market wrap, but no HMY articles on either yahoo or wsj. I guess I'll have to peruse the company website.

Link re HMY CEO and 4th quarter loss
http://tinyurl.com/3ak5am

Anyone jumping into the PMs here?

MarkM mentioned almost 2 weeks ago that he's sitting on the sidelines waiting for some direction... Although I nibbled a bit into WGI and SLW, I'm mostly sitting and waiting for the right PM opportunity.

I'm looking to take additional positions in SLW, PAAS, SSRI, UXG, KGC, and GFI... also interested in IVN, and MNG (Miramar Mining). But I'm waiting and waiting...

TA - Technical Analysis:

First, I want to thank everyone for his or her comments today on the market and re KRY. I am still trying to become a better investor/trader. I welcome any feedback re TA (Technical Analysis) because I "do" want to learn more. It is a wonder to look at MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands and Relative Strength among the list. Thanks Bill, I really did not understand or use RSI before. I am learning. Puts and calls will have to wait for 2008 for me to fully grasp the methods of trading them. I now know how to use puts from Bill's comments. Thanks.

For me TA is like reading 'Tea Leaves'. It takes a lot of work to imagine something from the shapes they take. Sometimes the tea is clear and the leaves make a nice pattern. Other times someone puts milk in it and who knows what the leaves are trying to tell us. The market for me now is like the later. Hard to know what is going on? MarkM told us the market was not feeling well and TA told me the same the last two and a half weeks. What I see does not look good. I am hedged neutral with long gold miners and short the Canadian index. One or the other will be correct. The sell button is close by for the miners and a bit further away for the market short. I am negative short-term on this market. HB&B is lining up something in their playbook. This moving the market up and down daily is giving me a headache. Does anyone know if Program Trading is still around and if it is, how does this game play out? Time will tell were the market goes from here.

KRY(TSX) - Crystallex International Corp - $3.33CDN - Friday August 3 2007 close. TSX closed for holiday August 06 2007

Speculation and Opinion (Mine):

Some holder of this stock is waiting for a takeover. I doubt it. This should be enough to deny a permit. VZ will not want to start over with another Management team again. Hint: take a look at Bill's problems in 'paradise'. Change the words and that is 'us' with our KRY holdings. Throw in the towel. I speculate that either VZ will want a 51% interest or get KRY to line up a (joint) partner that VZ will accept before giving a permit. VZ is not interested in making us rich. What have we done for VZ by holding shares in KRY? Someone has been buying the shares of KRY in this downward move. I like to know if this is a gradual accumulation within a cloud of cover. Also KRY is far removed from the VZ interests of the day. KRY is just a footnote to VZ real issues facing this country.

Based on TA I am still waiting for more data - 4 to 5 days and give consideration to the North American market spin before making any move with this stock. Updating Friday's data to the chart of KRY, I have lowered my target price from $3.19 to $3.12. I feel your pain too. I see that sell signal on my chart and I "Cry". But to be positive I did reduce my holdings on the first signal. When we let emotions take over our trading....

If anyone wants my opinion on ECU - ECU Silver Mining Inc. (Tier2) Toronto Venture, just say the word as I will take the time to write up a review but only on the condition that others weigh in with comments. Or any other stock mentioned in the last 6 months in this Blog. I think writing up TA reports is good training for me.

005 - posted for entertainment value only (when KRY is involved in the story)

Rookie,

I've been pondering the "value of gold" question myself. Value is defined by an exchange agreement between two or more parties. If the world's richest governments no longer want gold then gold has little value anymore. Sure, we've coveted it for centuries but, I assume that initially it was a random choice. Might as well have been sharks teeth. What if gold isn't important anymore? Disclosure: I'm awash in gold mining stocks.

NYUgrad -

Thanks for the link to the JC meltdown...priceless. Apparently, if Ben just knew a few more people like JC, he would know what to do. Hilarious.

Disclosure: I am not a Bernanke fan either....

I am recently long ECU (small amount) as I believe it is building a long base around $2.20 for the next leg higher. What is your opinion BernardF?

Hey there...watch what you say about shark's teeth. btw, I often sit and ponder the value of gold myself. I suspect that it's value is both greater than gold's detractors claim and less than it's adherents believe. Fiat currency abounds, no doubt, but there's so little gold around it that exchanging it isn't really a practical monetary system in a world with however-many-billions of people. Clearly it has value as jewelry, and clearly it has a significant romantic, for lack of a better word, appeal. Fiat currency will be with us forever, and that's sort of ok, so long as everyone believes in it and it's perceived value erodes slowly enough. It's on this final point that emotions enter the pic.
Remember...fiat currency facilitated unprecedented growth, and frankly paradoxically, unprecedented wealth and wealth's distribution.
BTW 2nd ave, do we dre take home a little lend tonite?

GDX probing intraday resistance at 38.59

Fazeli,
I'm also thinking of buying into PMs, but I've tentatively decided to start with XGD-T, the Canadian Global Goldminers ETF, and then add some silver companies - PAA-T and SLW-T. For producing goldminers, do you think that stock-picking is preferable to indexing?
BTW I can see supplementing the above with so-called "emerging" producers and exploration companies.
-- John

Still watching XAU Fazelli.....

Similar list. GFI, SLW, GDX, WGDFF.
Are we stressed anough?
Wishfully Long WFMI, SBUX, PG, NZT, PGH.

Tried shorting BSC again, turned against me so I'm out.
Took profits on my short term BMD trade.

Are we going for another miracle on ice? Kinda looks like we're rallying into Ben.

BernardF,

I used to hold ECU. Right or wrong I chose to divest my ECU at a small profit and go overweight in CNU based on heavy Sprott and AEM ownership positions. I also divested SLW. Nothing against ECU and SLW. I just liked other silver plays better. I also hold PAAS and SSO. That's more than enough silver.

Unless BSC tries to do another CC to re-explain their credit issues, we should have a good day today!

ETFC: short covering rally starting..

Bill, there is nothing worse than moving to a new place and have practically nothing work right. In this case ISP/telephone service/etc. Hope it works out soon cause I know you have a dream. I worry about a high energy guy trying to adapt to a low energy environment. In any case, appreciate what you're doing. Hang in there. NT

The Plunge Protection team is back at it again...

+180 DOW! Interesting.

The junior miners are riskier because they have bigger swings in both directions. I personally like Miramar Mining, but their price action in the past few months has been similar to most others "abysmal" (minus July 07).

I buy WGDFF as WGI on the TSE. I like UXG because of the guy at the helm. PAAS has been super resilient compared to other silver miners in the past week. GFI seems like good value here.

I played WFMI a couple of times and made small profits. I'm thinking PGH / PGF.UN is a good place to be again.

Still hold a small KRY position... hoping to make back the portion of my profits that were lost as it fell after the phantom permit.

GRZ:
Now near pre-permit levels at 4.78.
With a market cap less than $200 million.
Added more at 4.78

A question for Coach Cara

Bill when you have time Could you give us your thoughts to these "Sovereign Wealth Funds"?

I just heard F.E.T.V. (ie:CNBC) talking heads giong on about them as if they are going to be the savior of the credit markets ..."providing a floor for equities".... is how they put it.

Also Big Thaks to Shark_Attack for the Candle Stick lesson from last week. You were right on the money re:3 down method. AUY fell from $10.80 to below 10.25. Still in the AZ looking to add some more to my position.

Dead-cat bounce. A/D *still* underwater, with the DOW up 179 points? Ahhh, something doesn't smell right here, but I'll bet we get another 50 points on the plus side before the close.

Bloomberg article says price of oil is dropping because of sub-prime situation! No inflation, slowing economy and mortgage crisis. Is this a set-up for an interest rate cut?
http://tinyurl.com/3c3m3r

Lots of volatility and no progress often signals a market turning or inflection point. Kudos to those stepping up this morning in front of all the fear and Armageddon talk the past week and weekend.

holding the miners and UNG overnight...
selling OIH/RIG here...
chris-sorry, man...not doing the LEND trade today...that would be asking for trouble!

anyone else starting to think about SDS/DXD?

With Oil down big, what is the catalyst for PM and the Miner's to move up? Anyone?

I'm a bit confused about the discussion of VZ and KRY in reference to 'ownership.' My understanding is that the VZ Corp CVG owns the mine and the KRY has a Mine Operating Agreement (MOA) only. KRY will pay CVG royalities based on the POG. Nothing has changed in this area for years.

This is all clearly documented on the Crystallex web site and these documents can be found using a google site search for pdf's:
http://tinyurl.com/23u4vx

Similar to oil, VZ does not have the infrastructure or expertise to operate a mine, hence the use of outside companies.
Shared ownership of a 'company' could result in an actual loss to CVG, whereas with royality payments CVG gets paid regardless if KRY loses money producing gold. Seems like a good deal for VZ? Am I missing something here?

Catalyst could be a hint of a rate cut.

jogyp-the only "catalyst" i can think of is sentiment...can it get any more negative in the gold sector...wouldn't be surprised to see another Hulbert update coming out with a huge percentage drop in newsletter sentiment...we'll see..

WYNN is up huge after hours from $106 to $120+ range. Unfortunately I do not hold any WYNN, however the news seems to be giving my MPEL a little AH push!

Another miracle, amazing.

Had some fun with SPF today on the rebound.

Nibbled at SLW, a touch more NZT and GDX at today's low.
My guess is Ben stays neutral but talks the market off the ledge....for now.

If NOT, better be ready to cut the cord and let the market jump or give it a push if you're short.

I'm up for a rhum and coke, or as Bill would know it, a boat drink. How's that work? As Bill hinted rum is about $4-$5 a fifth in most island locales, coke probably in the $6 a six pack range. Boat drinks are mainly rum or in the case of Cranberry/Stoli, mainly Stoli.

Here's to ya Bill. Don't get too frustrated with Island Time. Maybe the biz to start is an ISP. Seem's like competition might be in order.
Something the son of an electrician could manage with ease.

marketwatch headline is now "Dow has Best Day in 2007.." http://tinyurl.com/2yrf2n

could be wrong, but wasn't last friday's "Dow has Worst Week in 5 Years.."

which brings us to one of bill's favorite quotes- may you live in interesting times...indeed...

Thanks for the feedback. Now realize that my foot is in my mouth. I need to retract my offer of TA reports. I will wait for Team Cara to get going for review of a stock(s). Getting carried away with the commentary today. It's a holiday in Canada today so I have time during the day to read the Blog. Normally it is late in the evening after Iget home from work when I catch up with what is going on.

Thanks moab and Fred for your comments. Made me realize that I am already own 100% of what I am willing to hold in ECU. Back on June 9th I made a note to myself that $2.20 might be a base and I am still sticking with it. I was planning to double up and hold 200%. I already have 200% in SLW and I am following CNU (no holdings). I may be only willing to hold 25% as CNU trades under a buck. But I do like the Sprott connection.

006

Zeitgeist

Once again I'd like to encourage the readers to watch this movie. It's downloadable for free from

www.zeitgeistmovie.com

The last 40 mins or so deal with what Kaimu refers to as the 'socio-economic experiment' called central banking and fiat currencies.

ALOHA !!

For those of you who ponder what value gold has and how POG or PM shares would perform in a DOW crash here is a link comparing the 1987 crash to 2007. I notice some similarities and we have already had some smaller dry runs ...

Also those who question gold's value have obviously never lived through a currency crisis. Ask any Russian or Argentinian ... Perhaps a Zimbabwian if you could find one! Russia's currency is close to worthless with an YOY M3 at 40%, even compared to the USDX its worthless. How many years could Americans endure a Russian style Katrina monetary collapse? I do not count on the US government for anything, much less saving my 401k. Can an Empire like the USA collapse like Britain or Russia, in modern times like these where we now have i-Phones and high tech money centers like the NYSE?

Link: http://tinyurl.com/36jld8

First few days was a DOW crash of around 18% followed by a further crash down another 14% to 1738 from 2500. A similar rout today would have the DOW looking at 9450! Would the PPT allow such a plunge ... brakes PLEASE! So far ... not! How many billions would the PPT spend to mitigate such a plunge? WOW ... guesses? Even Ben claims he does not know when the PPT meets exactly but thinks its once a month or so! But ... he does admit THEY exist ... thats on Congressional record! Does he even know where they meet? I think he should know ...

First you have to ask yourself do you think the DOW will tank 4000 points in a few days? Well, October is coming soon! I am still holding seven figures in cash! I do not trust the so called "experts" ...

Hallvardo the movie was excellent I recommend it.

Lot of KRY talk recently. I never owned it but am sure glad I own a lot of WGDFF/WGI.to.

Thanks Bill for all you have done regarding Western Goldfields.

Paul Farrell on "Five Lazy Portfolio Strategies" for a market meltdown:

http://tinyurl.com/376wpt

The one I like best? Cash...

Thank you BernardF, Fred, Shark_Attack, TimG, Kaimu, Bill
and the rest for sharing your thoughts on this site. I don't
know where one could get a better education.

TimG and BernardF: Great info on KRY. I looked over 2 of the PDF's
that TimG pointed to. It certainly looks like a Win Win Win deal;KRY, VZ, and Cvg.
My thoughts on a possible change of KRY ownership were partially prompted
by rumor, by the current permit wait beyond GRZ's wait, and Chavez's recent
travel to Russia, Iran and the like. I Just figured it
wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility for Chavez to broker a
deal between KRY and someone he may consider more sympathetic or
useful to him down the road. Maybe a Win, Win, Win, Win situation.

I don't seem to trust things on their face value any more. Trust may have
deteriorated during current Bush/Cheney infestation?

Fred: I'm glad i'm not the only one awash in the Gold Miners.
I'm about to go buy a Wiji board.

shark_attack: Take no offence at Freds comment. If Shark Teeth would have been chosen instead of
Gold, i'm sure the SHRKTH Index would be over $2000 by now.

Kaimu: Thanks for the history and posting the link to the Gold/Dow crash charts.
Great info. I'm jealous of the seven figures cash.

Bill: Thank you, Thank you, Thank you. What an incredible community you've created.

Highest regards,
Rookie

anyone catch that rebound in MBIA?(mbi) up 10% on the recognition that it was the baby that was thrown out with the bathwater?

I promise I won't bring it up again, unless someone actually responds, but any interest in the seasonal rebound in natgas? nabors (nbr) hit the cara accumulation zone on the daily chart RSI(21) <30. I am NOT counting on the weather to make money on this trade, but looking for NG stocks to lead the commodity higher. how about those natgas weighted canadian trusts? nice yields right now. etc.

not that I am unworried about the blood on the streets, but for a trade, I have to follow the market segment in question, and the point of least risk is at the cara accumulation zone. if I am wrong about the trade because the entire market is going straight to hell without passing go, then I will lose a little, but much better to buy here than wait two weeks and miss the early money on the trade. this is my thinking. can you dig it?

NBR-wow, thanks for the AZ alert...i traded this one a few years ago and like the company...