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July 28, 2007
Week in Review #30 (2007-07-28)
This week, traders are wondering if in fact the long-term trend has changed from positive to bearish. Is anybody surprised?
Last weekend, I wrote: “My main concern is that the hyped excesses of today’s market will soon be replaced by the opposite picture. Today’s sell-off is the sign of a nervous market, despite a rising bond market (lower yields), which should have been a help.”
After the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) moved to a record high just over 14000, there has been a sharp pullback of about -5 pct. Traders are left wondering if the new trading range will be from that high (14000) down -8 pct to the area of technical support at 12750-12800 (May-June 2007 trading), or worse.
Despite prognostications of everybody from grandparents to teenagers, nobody knows yet if the Dow 12800 is going to be penetrated, and, if so, if or when the present selling wave will take the DJIA down to technical support at about the 12050 level of March 2007.
That’s the thing about Bear markets; nobody knows when they happen until after they happen – as defined by a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Are we there yet? Not by the charts, we are not.
Are those traders who say they know prepared to back up their Bear market call by betting the farm? I doubt it.
In fact, the Bulls will say that a five or six percent market correction is very healthy in equity markets, and technical analysts must admit that these happen frequently. Moreover, the Bulls will point to this week’s data that shows the US GDP growing at a highly satisfactory annual rate of +3.4 pct, which is sufficient to support the very healthy global economic growth rate.
In addition, the Bulls will say this latest pullback is a normal market correction where they are rotating sector weightings, ie, taking profits from long-running advancers and putting back the proceeds into stocks that are more value priced, and into bonds that will protect portfolios from a future decline in rates equity prices.
The point is there are always two sides to a market. The market is a barometer of human emotion. Unfortunately, too many of us play “Doctor” rather than focus on what is important, which is our own portfolio.
At the end of the day (which never comes by the way because trading is a continuous process), traders have to do only a couple things in order to operate a successful portfolio. They must (i) find, buy and continuously add to long positions in the shares of high-quality companies, and (ii) work at constantly lowering the cost base of portfolio holdings, and raising the dividend/interest income of that portfolio.
Therefore, rather than focus on the major market indexes, it is a trader’s job to manage a portfolio, which I do by a discipline called the Market Cycle Model and Trading Oscillator for a watchlist of high quality stocks I refer to as the Cara 100 (a US 100, an Americas 100, a UK/Europe 100, an Asia-Pacific 100, an Emerging Market 100, a Microcap 100, and so forth).
To keep it simple, where markets are in a trading range (which is most of the time), I use Relative Strength Index (RSI indicator) analysis to set what I call the Accumulation Zone and the Distribution Zone, which are levels of trading activity where I would be a buyer or a seller. Then I use a combination of RSI and Stochastic Oscillators on a combination of different periods (Monthly-Weekly-Daily-Hourly) of the price data for each stock in the Cara 100 watchlist.
The essence of what I am doing is using a protocol to help me buy low and sell high the shares of companies that are financially strong, have management I respect for their track record and their values, and where the operating performance of the company is leading its peer group.
Nowhere in all of that is the need to call tops and bottoms of markets. If, as is happening at the present time, there is a concern that the long-term trend of market prices is possibly changing from Bull to Bear, or net positive to net negative, then, for my outlook and decisions, I add to my technical indicators that are momentum based (RSI and STO) a trend indicator called MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence).
Already you can see that there is as much art as science to the process of portfolio management. To become good at art and science takes learning, practice, time and focus. That’s often a disappointment to young people. The good news is that the process is simple and straightforward. It’s not nearly as difficult as learning how to become an accomplished musician, rocket scientist, or professional athlete. Anybody can do it.
You have heard this discussion from me many times, but I repeat it here because I fear you are being distracted by the emotion of the marketplace, and you need to stick to facts. Regarding emotion – it’s true the market is a game that plays people – I have a rule: “Whenever you feel uncomfortable, get out.” What could be simpler?
However, this is not a time to quit.
Trading is a process that exploits the rise and fall of market prices. If you are confused, then you have not yet captured the essence of trading, which is to buy low and sell high, or, if you wish, to sell high and buy low. You haven’t yet learned a simple trading discipline like the one I use. You probably are listening too much to other people, and not putting enough time and focus into your own portfolio.
I hope you look upon the market as a trading laboratory – a place to study price change, economics, human behavior and self-introspection. Just think, if prices didn’t rise and fall, we would not have this opportunity.
As to the details of Friday’s action in markets, selling near the closing bell in New York forced the Dow down more than 200 points as stocks disregarded promising GDP growth data to focus on credit crunch concerns.
Merck (MRK -3.6 pct), General Motors (GM -3.4 pct), Exxon (XOM -3.0 pct), Caterpillar (CAT -2.9 pct), and American Express (AXP -2.8 pct) slumped most while JP Morgan (JPM +0.3 pct) and Proctor & Gamble (PG +0.4 pct) were the sole positive Dow components on the day.
Amgen (AMGN) pulled back after reporting 2Q higher earnings but slowing sales. ITT Corp (ITT) also moved down despite reporting a +52 pct increase in earnings on $2.22 billion in revenues.
Asset allocation movement, and sector rotation within equities, is driving changes in the stock and Treasury markets. 10-year note and 30-year bond prices moved higher on safe-haven buying, and the $USD advanced against the Euro, Pound Stirling, and Swiss Franc.
Crude Oil and Natural Gas prices heated up on the 2Q increase in US GDP growth, apparently. New confidence in oil demand from the GDP data has $WTIC trading over $77/bbl, up +$2.06.
The House Ways and Means Committee approved legislation that will effectively raise federal tobacco taxes and cut Medicare payments to insurers; President Bush will likely veto such a bill.
A real fly in the ointment is that European markets have been unable to hold off the downward bias of US markets; the DAX and FTSE 100 both closed lower.
I believe the US equity market levels will hold here, but there is a predominant negative bias, and next week will be a test.
The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch
Here are the Friday session Cara 100 gainers.
Here are Cara 100 losers.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Friday session.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes, ie, Money Flow, especially when markets start trending.
Key Stocks plus Cara 100 In Focus
The folks at KNOBIAS, Inc provided the Cara 100 watchlists.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .
Here are the charts of up to a dozen stocks with RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from Friday: Please note that there were zero above 70 on the Daily RSI-7 data, but 62 of 100 below 30. That is the most extreme daily reading (positive or negative) since I started to blog in April 2004.
(When available), here are the Cara 100 stocks trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for Friday:
“Chris,” used BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike the data from Worden used by “David”.
Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review
The “impulse system” considers price “inertia” versus a moving average, and price “momentum” via the rate at which shorter moving averages are converging or diverging. Applied weekly to major industry groups, this gives a sense of market internals. When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up for the week, the reading is green; when both decline, it is red.
“Jock” reports:
Weekly Impulse ReportAlex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (at what rate are 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages now converging or diverging).
When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.
This week saw 19 industries “net RED” compared to last week’s 10 net GREEN. During the Feb-March pullback, the tally never exceeded 6 industries “net red”. Market internals have not been as negative as this all year. Only the week ending March 23 saw a larger weekly swing (in that case from 6 net red to 28 net green).
Major industry chart:
After 3 weeks of “green”, the gold and silver “sub-industry groups” both turned red. They were both in the bottom 10 of 208 sub-industry groups in the stock market.Of the Cara 100 components, 9 are green (last week: 36), 54 red (last week: 22).
Cara 100 “Greens”
Cara 100 “Reds”
Components of major indices, on a weekly basis, were green/red:DJIA – 3/15 (last week: 10/8)
Dow65 (indu&transport&utility) – 4/39 (last week: 26/10)
SP500 – 47/347 (last week: 134/188)
NDX – 24/48 (last week: 42/19)
RUT – 120/1495 (last week: 597/714).
The following major indices themselves are red on their weekly charts: DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq Comp, Russell 2000, and Wiltshire 4500. After 4 weeks in the red, the dollar index turned neutral.
/Jock
International Economics Review
Econoday Weekly International Report
US Economic Calendar for next week
US Equity Markets Review
The DJIA has taken a battering this week, but so far, the pullback is a normal one, which is not the case for the FTSE 100 index of the UK market, in itself a concern for the US market.
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Sector ETF Summary
The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)
15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)
30 (consumer staples: XLP)
35 (healthcare: IYH)
40 (financial: XLF)
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)
50 (telecom: IYZ)
55 (utilities: XLU)
Individual Sector ETF Review
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:
XLE Weekly data:
XLE Daily data:
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:
XLB Weekly data:
XLB Daily data:
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:
XLI Weekly data:
XLI Daily data:
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:
XLY Weekly data:
XLY Daily data:
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:
XLP Weekly data:
XLP Daily data:
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data:
IYH Weekly data:
IYH Daily data:
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLF Monthly data:
XLF Weekly data:
XLF Daily data:
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)
Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SMH Monthly data:
SMH Weekly data:
SMH Daily data:
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)
Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYZ Monthly data:
IYZ Weekly data:
IYZ Daily data:
Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)
Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLU Monthly data:
XLU Weekly data:
XLU Daily data:
Bonds & Yields Review
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.
Interest rates and bond yields.
Interactive Daily data charts:
Table 10: Bond Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 4.70 | 4.76 | 4.82 | 4.64 |
| 6 Month | 4.73 | 4.76 | 4.81 | 4.74 |
| 2 Year | 4.50 | 4.55 | 4.76 | 4.90 |
| 3 Year | 4.48 | 4.53 | 4.78 | 4.93 |
| 5 Year | 4.55 | 4.60 | 4.84 | 4.96 |
| 10 Year | 4.76 | 4.78 | 4.95 | 5.08 |
| 30 Year | 4.93 | 4.95 | 5.06 | 5.19 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.67 | 3.71 | 3.78 | 3.80 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.64 | 3.65 | 3.70 | 3.71 |
| 2yr A | 3.65 | 3.67 | 3.68 | 3.76 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.80 | 3.87 |
| 5yr AA | 3.83 | 3.78 | 3.82 | 3.90 |
| 5yr A | 4.10 | 4.12 | 3.92 | 2.31 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.93 | 3.95 | 4.02 | 4.06 |
| 10yr AA | 3.98 | 3.99 | 4.02 | 4.15 |
| 10yr A | 4.02 | 3.93 | 4.11 | 4.27 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.54 | 4.55 | 4.55 | 4.72 |
| 20yr AA | 4.41 | 4.45 | 4.49 | 4.54 |
| 20yr A | 4.16 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 4.70 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 5.04 | 5.07 | 5.21 | 5.29 |
| 2yr A | 5.15 | 5.14 | 5.27 | 5.37 |
| 5yr AAA | 5.22 | 5.21 | 5.41 | 5.52 |
| 5yr AA | 5.39 | 5.41 | 5.57 | 5.61 |
| 5yr A | 5.60 | 5.60 | 5.59 | 5.66 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.86 | 5.86 | 5.85 | 5.85 |
| 10yr AA | 5.87 | 5.88 | 5.93 | 5.94 |
| 10yr A | 5.98 | 5.95 | 6.06 | 5.99 |
| 20yr AAA | 6.07 | 6.09 | 6.20 | 6.23 |
| 20yr AA | 6.18 | 6.20 | 6.22 | 6.22 |
| 20yr A | 6.21 | 6.23 | 6.33 | 6.37 |
Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts
SHY Monthly data series chart:
IEF Monthly data series chart:
TLT Monthly data series chart:
AGG Monthly data series chart:
LQD Monthly data series chart:
TIP Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
SHY Weekly data series chart:
IEF Weekly data series chart:
TLT Weekly data series chart:
AGG Weekly data series chart:
LQD Weekly data series chart:
TIP Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
These markets have been burdened more by the fallout of the “Liar Loan” fiasco than by interest rates. In fact, lower rates will not help these companies if they hold asset-backed securities of dubious quality.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
As and when commodity price levels increase (eg, $CRB), the driver is either (i) economic demand that is outstripping supply, or (ii) the $USD pricing mechanism for the commodity, which if the item must be imported to the US becomes more costly.
Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:
Oil Review
As the $USD has broadly declined, the price of oil on the world market has increased. Also, there are major OPEC producers today that require payment in Yen and Euro, which serves to push the $USD down in price. In addition, the very high rate of growth of the major emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, China and India) is placing greater demand on oil production, and hence price.
Consequently, the price of European Brent and US West Texas Intermediate Crude are at record-high levels. Alternatives (uranium, hydrogen, solar and wind) are being sought, but the global infrastructure still places greatest emphasis on oil.
Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:
Gold & Precious Metals Review
As long as there is a major expenditure by governments on war (the US is spending $12 billion a month on Iraq and Afghanistan alone), then the value of fiat currency, ie, paper money, will trend lower. Gold is priced in $USD, so as the USD falls relative to other currencies, the price of Gold, all other things being equal, will rise.
However, profit taking in the normal course, credit tightening by banks, and central bank sales (to help boost the $USD) have combined to hold back the price of Gold and the other precious metals from moving to new highs like Crude Oil.
One of the reasons is that Gold is a storehouse of value, with less utility than oil, which is a consumable product. So, Gold has greater investment value, which subjects its price to the vagaries of broad market influences and price cycles more so than say Oil.
Unless the fundamental picture changes, which would be the case as a new Bull market in equities is taking shape, which would favor the purchase of interest-sensitive and economy sensitive stocks, or where cash ought best be allocated to projects building economic wealth (real returns far higher than inflation), or where the war theater has been wound down (alleviating pressures on govt deficit and inflation), then I will stick to buying Gold on market pullbacks.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.
Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Spot platinum chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
As I say, “Let’s keep it simple. Gold production is falling. Inflation, though possibly mild, is growing constantly. Fiat money is growing much more rapidly than real (enonomic) wealth, ie, where effective rates of return are obtained based on the risk involved. Unless central banks sell their gold holdings, the price is going higher. Why make it more complicated than that?”
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:
The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Weekly data:
GDX Daily data:
The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:
Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week’s trading.
The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week.
M3 continues to grow at an excessive rate.
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
Weekly British Pound Index:
Daily British Pound Index:
Weekly Japanese Yen Index:
Daily Japanese Yen Index:
Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:
Daily Canadian Dollar Index:
International Equity Markets Review
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.
Table 13: International equities ETF perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:
Canada’s equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
US Equity Markets Review
A dozen NYSE DJIA stocks to watch.
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.
Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
Value Line Report(s) this past Friday
The reports from Value Line this week are on Caterpillar (CAT), Honeywell (HON), and United Technologies (UTX).
These three are all high quality US industrial companies, but I rate United Technologies at the top. It is one of the Cara Global Best 100 Companies.
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)
The Dow 30 Company links
Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)
Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report May. 4: next one is due Aug. 3)
American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)
American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)
AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)
Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 22: next one is due Sep. 21)
Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)
Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)
Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May. 4: next one is due Aug. 3)
Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)
Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)
ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 15: next one is due Sep. 14)
General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)
General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)
Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)
Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)
Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)
IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)
Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 13: next one is due Oct. 13)
Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)
JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)
McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 8: next one is due Sep. 7)
3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)
Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)
Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)
Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 20: next one is due Oct. 19)
Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jul. 6: next one is due Oct. 6)
United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 27: next one is due Oct. 26)
Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)
Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 11: next one is due Aug 10)
Wrap up:
What I try to accomplish with this blog, and in my upcoming book, is to show you how to get your heads around the full scope of the aspects of capital markets that are important, and to be able to think in logical terms. Your job is to make better decisions on matters of importance to you and not to the salesperson who is selling you, or the guru you are following. It’s your life; your responsibility; and your interests that matter.
In my case, I have redefined my priorities, which is to move to a new society where I intend to enjoy life more. Some people call this place paradise, but it is not perfect.
My move will take time, and in the meantime, due to much less connectivity than what I had been used to, I am not tuned to markets as much, nor am I thinking about them or writing about them as much.
But in a month or so, that will change and I shall return pretty much as before.
I might add here is a note that in October, after my son’s wedding, I shall return to Nassau where I will be open for business. By then I expect to have a license from the Securities Commission of The Bahamas to advise portfolio accounts.
You know, some of my greatest joys (and the occasional disappointment) has been in meeting new people through this blog. The experience has been like building an extended family, people of every race, religion and sexual orientation, from about 140 countries, all of us trying to find another key that will open up doors to our success and happiness. I consider that friendship more important than business matters at this point in my life.
Yes, my friends, whether there are 1,000 or 100,000 of you, or more, that is at least 1,000 more friends than I had before. And, it is a comforting thought to know we are all in this together, and that wherever we are in the world, the Web connects us.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 28, 2007 10:14:39 AM | Category: Cara Week in Review
Discourse
Bill - Sorry to hear about all the problems with internet service. Thought you might like to know that there might be a "fixerupper" coming available on Palm Beach - just a few miles West of you and the internet almost always works - gg! Needs some work but 3 acres of prime property, and perhaps you might already know the Canadian owners, but leave your money in the Bahamas, of course. Just joking.
Posted by: spot ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
July 28, 2007 11:17 AM [link]
The Internet usually is reliable here. But 6 weeks ago, Cable Bahamas started having problems.
Then four weeks ago, the hotel I checked into sold to Ritz-Carlton and cut all the main services until R-C takes control. I will resolve this issue soon though.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
July 28, 2007 11:21 AM [link]
Dear Bill,
Thanks for the great read, It sounds as if your new priorities, for your new situation in the Bahamas are working out to your liking. I find it interesting that you feel that the US markets will hold here. But with the contagion spreading in the Capital markets, don't you think there's going to be a snowballing effect on downward preasure to markets worldwide, sooner rather than later?
Posted by: BruceThomas at
July 28, 2007 11:55 AM [link]
Bill,
I follow economic series and express them differently than other analysts. I know your like to look at the Capital Goods side of the equation. I have been waiting for a stronger rebound in Non-Defense Capital Goods ex Aircraft (as % of Durable Goods) and it just isn not happening quickly enough. As you Know NDCGxA is a proxy for Business Investment. Does this bother you?
You can see the chart in my website.
"Business Investment: Flat"
www.wrahal.blogspot.com
Posted by: Will Rahal at
July 28, 2007 12:32 PM [link]
On the process of being a lay investor reminds me of my avid golfing days. I loved the practice range. For me never work. To read about a different swing thoughts or to receive a lesson was like sampling a new wine with new possibilities. The conflict was between enjoying the stimulation but having to choose between competing philosophies of what makes for the most effective and repeatable golf swing. I did end up with a much admired swing but my penchant for experimentation did interfere with good scoring. As for investing, I am feeling the angst of being more on the wrong side of the trade than the right. Kind of lecturing myself this morning. I can not let one view tug against another view to the point of immobility or regret for action taken. I have to discipline my focus so it translates into managing my portfolio. Bill's weekend commentary shows valuable insight. Reminds me of what I think was one of best teaching golf books ever written. Common mistakes. The writer understood the struggle to get better.
Posted by: jasper at
July 28, 2007 1:37 PM [link]
Here's a naive question. How can I participate in select private share placements of Canadian junior PMs? I use BMO Investorline and Qtrade for my trading and they don't offer these opportunities.
Posted by: Fred at
July 28, 2007 2:37 PM [link]
Thank you Bill. For the folks investing in Palladium, Nissan said yesterday it has developed a catalyst for gasoline cars that halves the use of precious metal to clean tail-pipe emissions, promising big cost savings amid high commodity prices. Nissan employed nano-technology to prevent clustering of the fine metal particles present in catalysts under high temperature conditions. The technology will debut in a vehicle launch in the second half of the business year ending in March 2009.
Autocatalysts are by far the largest user of palladium, converting over 90 percent of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and oxides of nitrogen produced in the exhaust from gasoline engines into carbon dioxide, nitrogen and water vapor.
Posted by: SiO2 at
July 28, 2007 2:56 PM [link]
1. I'm trying to look at the 'Why' for more things. Today's 'Why?' Why did the XLP fare less worse than the rest of the sector ETFs on Friday? Is it because staples are something we all buy no matter what? Or was there some component that had a good day, even as everything tanked? That's rhetorical, as I'll be digging in myself, but thoughts are appreciated.
2. Followed Bill's link to the M3 numbers. After a slight decrease in the rate of increase, out of control-ness seems to be back on course. I'd say 'scary' but it's approaching numbness. No wonder 'they' slam gold over and over again,locking it into 666 for months now. How high, really, can M3 go, and at what rate of increase, before something really bad happens?
3. No more just 'scanning' these sector rotation analyses. I've got to understand them more deeply. That starts with knowing all the companies/symbols. I've printed the Cara 100 Symbol lists and they are next to my desk at work. Give me a week or two and I'll have them cold. I'm doing the same thing with the ETF's. I don't know if my poor brain will get as far as actually memorizing the contents of the various ETFs, but if I can disgorge from my brain some of the useless junk it holds, maybe I can cram some of that in there, too.
In addition to realizing the power of hard, focused work researching individual companies, I've come to realize that sector rotation is key. We all like to play long with the big bull - but sector rotation is like your own little mini-bull to ride along with.
I still think a ton of hard work, and a little luck, researching and identifying undervalued equities is extremely key, and perhaps even THE key to achieving wealth in the markets, but money flow is the oxygen our equities breath.
Identifying that quality undervalued company is the holy grail, isn't it? One of my crazily undervalued Micro 100 research projects was up 5%, on results, over Thur-Friday.
3. I need to understand the pricing mechanisms of the bond markets better. Does anyone have a reco on a decent primer? Not baby talk, but a decent, thorough explanation of bonds, both govt and company issued debt. Thanks, in advance.
4. "Manipulation on Trial: Economic Analysis and the Hunt Silver case" (Williams, Cambridge U. Press) is a great dissection of that case and commodity market manipulation in general. Reading this, though not easy, gives me a great perspective on how fuzzily manipulation is defined in the commodity market law. That said, if Hunter has done what they say he did, he's screwed. You can't sell that massively into a single delivery month, right at the end of the trading period, while holding a larger short interest. Period.
Much as I am enjoying this forensic case analysis, I'm looking forward to reading the more narrative journalistic accounts of the Hunt case.
(The book also pierces the veil, though unintentionally, on how the commercial shorts have the silver market under their thumbs. It seems to imply Englehard, as a COMEX board member, may have been/may be, a large short interest holder, and acted, as a COMEX board member, to counter the Hunts. Wouldn't that be counter to the best interests of Englehard shareholders, who presumably would like a higher price?
By the way, the plaintiff in the hunt case was a silver producer advised my Merril to go short silver. So much wrong in that one sentence, in my opinion.)
5. For a break and a few laughs, " 'Round Ireland With A Fridge" is a great read. I think I laughed on almost every page.
Thanks Bill, as usual. Looking forward to what next month will bring on billcara.com
Regards,
Mike
NYC
PS Fred - call Sprott. They handle a lot of private placements. Maybe they can help you. But they won't be on QTrade, as they are 'private!'
Posted by: MikeNYC at
July 28, 2007 3:01 PM [link]
Thanks Mike.
Posted by: Fred at
July 28, 2007 3:13 PM [link]
MikeNYC - This link might have some of what you are looking for on Bonds, but that is such a broad subject:
spot
Posted by: spot at
July 28, 2007 4:30 PM [link]
Mike NYC -
Of 186 consumer discretionary (non-durables) in MG major industry group, only 22 were positive for the week. 8 were down over 20%. 18 had "green" impulse readings, while 165 were "red".
Why? damned if I know ...
Mike NYC -
PS: 3 consumer staples stox had a GREAT day Friday, all trendy shoe companies: PXG up 16%, DECK up 14%, CROX up 10% -- while RCKY (another shoe company) was down 26% !!!
You can't think about this stuff TOO hard!
New RSI data and miscellaneous up at my site.
I hope to have a special commentary up tomorrow concerning the CDO mess from Conor's Weekly Roundup.
Where is the market going from here?
In real dollar terms the overall Stock Market in the U.S. fell from 31.36 to 29.38; that is the average price of over 8000 stocks.
While it has taken out all kinds of technical lows, we haven't seen this type of overall fall since the period from May 9th 2006 to June 13th 2006 when the average was at 27.82 and then proceeded to fall to 24.74 over that 24 Business Day period of time.
I looked at the DJIA chart and we could see another 600 points shaved off the DJIA which may mean we are only half the way through this correction.
If you own good quality stocks, with good growing earnings, there is no need to panic.
Personaly I would be looking to cover shorts and go long if the market falls 300-400 more points.
I would suggest that this is in no way the end of the bull market, as the Vector Vest Value line has only fallen 51 cents over the same 6 day period mentioned above.
It was on November 16th that the VV Value line first broke to the up side above 32.36 to play in the range it has held for the last 8 months peaking at 34.17 a $1.81 spread.
During this same period (mentioned above) the price of the Vector Vest Price line bottom was 27.73 while it peaked at 31.44 a $3.71 spread.
So we see that the value line of the VV Composite has played in a narrower range than the price line. And the price started to get closer to the Value line.
Over the last 5 years, the price of the VV Composite has normally played at about a $3.50 discount to the Value line; and as of Friday we have a $3.58 difference in the two lines. So in essence what we have done is corrected to the aveage price in these two lines, with this correction.
The market is in no worse shape then it ever has been, but if the stocks continue to fall they will be able to be bought at a discount to regular normal prices from here on in.
IT IS TIME TO BUY THE MARKET FROM HERE ON, IF THE MARKET CONTINUES TO FALL.
Posted by: Peter at
July 28, 2007 6:50 PM [link]
Thanks Jock.
I didn't say that part was going to be hard, just that I wanted to open up the ETF and see what was holding it up. Thanks for doing that. But fundamental research sure is hard, if you are thorough. Hard or not, I have personally seen how it can shine a light on real value.
As an aside, I see these Crocs shoes on the subway fairly often. Man, are they ugly. How do you have a shred of self-respect and dress yourself like that when you get up in the morning? I think it's a fad and as soon as summer fades, some shorts are going to make an awful lot of money on CROX. This is clearly a trend or a fad.
Peter, can you define "regular" and "normal" in terms of prices?
And wouldn't buying as a market shifts down in it's trading range due to an economy-wide credit deflation ensure you have just obtained very poor entry points in your trades, quality companies or not? Isn't it possible the air is being let out of the balloon? Quality or no, wouldn't it be better if there were some signs of a bottom before buying the market?
Mike
NYC
Posted by: MikeNYC at
July 28, 2007 7:13 PM [link]
Hey Mike
The normal prices I refer to is the price to value that the overall 8000+ stocks are trading at. The value of all these stocks is a complicated algorithm that Vector Vest uses to determine what a stocks value is given; Growth, EPS, the Bond Rate, etc.
So when I say regular normal prices I refer to the average "Vector Vest Value" of all the 8000+ stocks vs. the average price of those same stocks.
I hope that helps you.
Peter
Posted by: Peter at
July 28, 2007 9:27 PM [link]
I'm with Peter on not panicking. A bit of perspective may help. In the SHORT TERM I'm looking at the similarity to Oct. of '89 when the UAL (known as Allegis back then) takeout deal fell through. Then, the big funds were forced to sell whatever they could to cover their margin calls, resulting in a 7% drop in the indexes in one day! I understand that what's going on today has much bigger econ. ramifications, and it's always sketchy to make comparisons to other times, but the indexes back in '89 look like today, within a week of the top. Even if this is THE top, it could take several weeks to a couple of months to play out
Posted by: PK at
July 28, 2007 10:17 PM [link]
The difference between Oct 89 and Today is that the corporations today are highly leveraged outside the U.S. and we have a growing global economy.
But yes the Stock Market did bounce back after the (socalled) crash of 89 rather quickly.
What is of interest to me is that from January of 1991 until January of 2000 the DJIA gained over 350% in value during that 9 year period. And with the world Economies heating up, I am surprized that people are so paranoid (I say this for dramatic effect) because the market has had a pullback.
Look the stock market has not even doubled from its lows in 2000 to its highs, at this point, in July of 2007. RELAX: The world economies are just starting this growth cycle... We are only in the 3rd inning of a nine inning game here.
NOW IS THE TIME TO BE LOOKING FOR GOOD GROWTH STOCKS INTERNATIONALY, NOT SELLING THE FARM.
Hey PK: I know your on my side, this is to make my point even stronger for people that are running for the hills or thinking or it.
Peter
Posted by: Peter at
July 29, 2007 1:00 AM [link]
All this noise from the mkts is possibly just a set-up for the fall/winter run.
Tech seems to me to be the place to be for the next two years(IMO).
I use a roughly 10 year cycle for business which would put the next recession in 2011ish.
Once the techs get overheated in 2009, I expect real estate to start coming back(or already to have started).
After this current pullback, I will be looking for break-outs above trend line formations.
JMHO,,,Dab
Posted by: dabonenose at
July 29, 2007 10:56 AM [link]
With housing prices continuing to drop and adjustable mortgage rates resetting upward to market values over the next months/years, it's hard to see how American consumers will not pull back in their spending, with a consequent slowing of the economy and all that that implies for imports and the world economy.
I have a hard time seeing the next recession in 2011. 2008 seems more likely.
Posted by: JonEB at
July 29, 2007 12:06 PM [link]
I remember, some years back, posts on various boards in which investers were advised to notify their Brokers that the stocks that were owned by those investers were NOT to be loaned out to others for the purpose of "short selling". As we all know here, in order to short sell a stock you have to "borrow" it from the owner in order to sell it and then later return it after buying it back for a profit. The above mentioned advice said in essence that without this notice to your Broker, he would be lending your stock out for the result that someone would be taking part in driving the price of your investment down against you.
Now, I read the snip below (link for full article below), and my first reaction is: These greedy B's (banks/brokers/bastards - you choose) found ways to take value from your homes (with your neighbors worthless mortgage that he should never have had to begin with), found ways to take cash from your pension fund (with sales of CDO's, etc, to those pension funds), and NOW, they are taking the value of your stock shares which are held by your pension and lending them out to be short sold against you thus driving the share price down.
I don't mean to rant, but DAMN! Who is paying these pension guys under the table?
PIonline.com
Quote:
... Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage, Goldman Sachs & Co. and Bear Stearns Cos. Inc., all in New York, have the dominant share of prime brokerage business, Mr. Kiefer said. Smaller prime brokers are trying to gain access to more exclusive relationships with securities lenders to boost their book of business and compete with the major prime brokers for hedge fund clientele and traditional managers that are using shorting for the first time with 130/30 strategies. ...
... “There’s a pure volume demand on securities to short. … Big pension funds are filling that void right now,” added Steven Lambdin, assistant director of equities for the $33 billion Retirement Systems of Alabama, Montgomery.
The Alabama fund made about $10.5 million in securities lending revenue for its fiscal year ended Sept. 30, and Mr. Lambdin says the fund will make at least 20% more this year. The plan has $20 billion is available to lend, with $3.2 billion out on loan.
The $82 billion Ohio Public Employees Retirement System, Columbus, is also seeing gains, to $38 million in 2006, up 31% from $29 million in 2005, said Jerry May, securities lending and cash manager.
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, Sacramento, raked in $150 million from securities lending for the year ended March 31, an increase of $21 million, or 16%, from the year before.
Posted by: spot at
July 29, 2007 1:31 PM [link]
"...and NOW, they are taking the value of your stock shares which are held by your pension and lending them out to be short sold against you thus driving the share price down."
spot-hopefully, we have been getting it all back and then some during the massive short squeezes the past few months...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
July 29, 2007 2:44 PM [link]
Over the last week, I saw some of my profits from the gold miners evaporate as the price of gold fell and the market went down even more. However, oil has remained high for some time and continues to remain high. I also think it's likely we're in for a hurricane at some point this summer which affects oil in this hemisphere (e.g. the gulf). Finally there is the usual geopolitical mess which may intensify as the US is likely to end its commitment to the status quo in Iraq this fall. This may further destabilize the region. I have confidence that our dysfunctional politics will not produce a well considered plan. You can add the declining dollar to this list. As Bill mentioned, oil is now in a higher trading range. All of this adds up to higher profits for oil companies. I looked at Bill's charts and couldn't help but notice that every oil producer is down between 5.25% and 14.25% over the last two weeks. It struck me that this might be a safe and profitable place to benefit from last week's debacle without taking a lot of risk. Unless everyone uses a lot less oil and the price goes down (which the world hasn't in some time), the market can go down but these companies will do very well. On a separate note, I want to thank all of the regular posters this last week. Your contribution is even more valuable at times like these.
Posted by: Simon A at
July 29, 2007 3:15 PM [link]
for anyone planning to visit the napa valley and doesn't want to get ripped off...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
July 29, 2007 5:36 PM [link]
I am interested in hearing comments on the yen carry trade. It seems to me that is a big aspect to why the markets turned south this week. Everything was "words and comments". But the yen did gain in value this week, and did so dramatically. It lead the markets down.
I am sad (but not surprised) that more financial Talking heads are not brining this up. I know folks here have spoken of it many times.
I watched the yen rise and lead the markets down this week. Anyone have any ideas/comments when/if the yen will stop rising?
Thanks!
SoccerMatt
Posted by: SoccerMatt at
July 29, 2007 6:03 PM [link]
Hey SoccerMatt,
I heard David Goldberg being interviewed by Tom Keene on Bloomberg who said there was a 92% correlation this week between the Yen carry trade and the S&P 500. Somethimg that he had never seen before. He felt that as this unwinds (worldwide)and the Yen Is repatriated from around the world it could have a significant effect (BAD) on US markets.
Posted by: BruceThomas at
July 29, 2007 6:40 PM [link]
Correction: David Goldman, Sorry about that.
Posted by: BruceThomas at
July 29, 2007 7:16 PM [link]
2nd, $150 for a Merlot? Gaah! Imagine Paul Giacometti's reaction to that!
Posted by: number2son at
July 29, 2007 7:32 PM [link]
We are very oversold ST and the market is ripe for a snap back rally. That doesn't mean one happens here but since 2004 these levels of oversold have provided the type of floor leading to market gains over the intermediate term. This happened in 2004, twice in 2005 and in June/July 2006. The February/March (2007)selloff didn't reach these extremes.
What I would urge is that everyone needs to map out their game plan AND STICK WITH IT. What do you do if the market continues to sell off? What do you do on any snap back rally? What are you looking for to convince you the waters are safe or that we are headed to hell in a handbasket? Are you a buyer of certain sectors and certain stocks at these levels or a little lower? Are banks now a value? REITs?
For myself, I will be using every tool at my disposal. And every hour of available time I have. It's that critical right now. I don't for a minute believe anyone when they try to tell me this has been a "typical correction" and point to its size (~6%). Why? It was swift and brutal with some of the worst internals I can recall. It was accompanied by the element I have been saying for two years could kill this bull: a change in liquidity (credit) and investor psychology. Anyone who blindly bought Thursday's dip got their rear ends handed to them as a result. And there were many. So it is NOT like February's drop nor those in 2006, 2005 or 2004.
TECHNICALLY, damage has been done but not enough to change the bullish posture of the LT charts. So yes, until proven otherwise, the bull is still alive and kickin'. Looking deeper though, the divergences were and remain HUGE. Part of the market has collapsed. I believe 17% of NYSE stocks hit 52wk lows at one point on TH. On another meaaasure it was 25%. That is OMG stuff. That is Crash Warning type of behavior. I kid you not.
FUNDAMENTALLY, we have evidence of weakening consumer demand. We have a weaker economy to look forward to. Housing is now a big drag. A much dimished GDP seems baked in the cake now for 3Q. Jobs are okay. If they turn down that will be bad news indeed. The credit markets appear to be a shambles but who really knows how far this goes? Noodles reports give great pause. Overall, I'd say we are at yellow light stage about to turn red.
The big change seems to be investor PSYCHOLOGY. No one believes the talking heads and Paulson when they blather on about containment. All news is being sold, good or bad. Risk is being repriced. The mood is nervous to fearful. That either means the time has come to buy because fear has overrun fundamentals or it means the selloff has just begun because we are starting an extended period where what is going on behind the curtains is revealed to all through the markets discounting mechanism.
So MarkM is watching this very carefully indeed. I was a buyer of the Spring selloff. I am NOT buying this thing. Not yet. I need to see a LOT more. I need to see a rally on improving internals. I would like to see a retest and a hold of lows wherever those may come. I would like to see how market participants react to news. I would like to see evidence that risk appetite has returned. I would llike to see some leadership. If I see all that, I will buy. Until then I sit on my hands watching and waiting, with my moves thought out and orders lined up. That's the game plan.
Posted by: MarkM at
July 29, 2007 7:54 PM [link]
MarkM:
I appreciate your post.
regards
joey
Posted by: joey at
July 29, 2007 8:22 PM [link]
Peter - where is your logic? With today's commissions, it doesn't cost much to hop off the train, then hop back on when the market stabilizes and starts upwards. In the meantime, buying is like catching a falling knife. You're BOUND to cut yourself ...
Thanks, MarkM.
Posted by: mrmockbird at
July 29, 2007 9:08 PM [link]
Jasper,
The greatest self help book ever written about golf is Jack Nicklaus's Golf My Way. None better.
Mike,
Asking why is only going to get you in more trouble. I have found that it's the what, not the why, that make you money trading. The why just confuses you and the more imaginitive you are, the worse the problem is. Why is for suckers. What is for us.
Posted by: shark_attack at
July 29, 2007 9:34 PM [link]
markm-glad you'll be around this week...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
July 29, 2007 9:40 PM [link]
Shark,
Do you think that applies to fundamental research? Is it not valuable?
Are you saying trading should be solely based on technical factors, price action, etc?
I guess if I see everything down and something up, I want to know what is causing that one thing to hold up.
I'm in a mode of absorbing as much knowledge as possible. But there are limits and you're right that sometimes it can be too much. In addition to learning, learning how and what to learn is something I need to do as well.
Mike
NYC
Posted by: MikeNYC at
July 29, 2007 10:03 PM [link]
Nikkei down - a little.
Gold up - a little.
Shanghai up - again.
I think multiply what MarkM said times ten million. My guess is Monday morning everyone is walking on tender feet, looking around like crazy trying to figure out what the heck is going to happen next.
And anyone who believed that 'containment' pablum is fooling themselves, to be kind about it.
Wouldn't this be a time to make sure you have a short list of high value companies and some cash, just in case things plummet and something valuable gets truly cheap?
Mike
NYC
Posted by: MikeNYC at
July 29, 2007 10:24 PM [link]
Regarding private placements in junior minors: a while ago I heard some guy on BNN recomment Longview Capital Partnerts (LV.V), which seems to be a sort of venture capital/incubator for junior resource companies (including plenty of junior minors).
I've been keeping an eye on it and watched it go from about $1.80 to $1.05. Seems like an interesting company, and looking at their holdings and balance sheet, seems like it might be an undervalued company. But I don't know enough about this type of business model to say if it would be a wise investment.
Anybody have any insight into this type of company?
thx
Posted by: proudPapa at
July 29, 2007 11:41 PM [link]
Terrific post, MarkM. Thank you for taking the time to write it.
Posted by: GemmaStar at
July 30, 2007 12:29 AM [link]
Platinum limit down in Tokyo. What's up with that?
Posted by: MikeNYC at
July 30, 2007 12:42 AM [link]
Hey Jock
I am talking about holding good stable stocks with earnigs that are growing; not that KRY junk.
Oops I know I'm in trouble now, as a lot of people have bought CRYSTALLEX.
The management of CRYSTALLEX has a interesting history, that I would rather not be associated with. And the property they hold in Venesuala was once held by Vannessa Ventures and is being arbitrated on.
I am talking about not selling companies like KO PEP CRDN PTR CAM FWLT SID PCU PCP SII NKE ATI CPA and I could go on and on. These are companies with growing earnings.
I am saying, that if you are in stocks like these; relax don't sell: As they are good stocks that need not be concerned with what happens over the short term.
Now if you are playing stocks that are overvalued, sure this correction may only be half over (although I don't believe we will see any more of a drop then that).
If you can't afford to see your stocks fall again like they have fallen over the last week or so, then you might want to sell.
Personally I like to buy stocks with real value and exceptional growth: So I am not worried about this correction, because I like the stocks I have invested in.
Posted by: Peter at
July 30, 2007 12:56 AM [link]
Thanks for the post MarkM. Great advice.
Posted by: Fazeli at
July 30, 2007 1:22 AM [link]
Peter - Stocks with real value and exceptional growth also trade up and trade down. Bill's main concept in this blog is that there is an "accumulation zone" and a "distribution zone" for his 100 best stocks.
Sometimes the market pays up for solid earnings growth and sometimes it doesn't. Did you continue holding all your stocks from 3/00 to 10/02?
Jock
The time for me to accumilate a stock is when it is in a turnaround stage. A good example of this is IOM, which I bought recently as earnings are breaking out. A couple other very good examples of this are EGLF and SNTKY that I also recently bought.
As for what I did in 2000: My stratagy has totally changed since then. I would not trade the stocks that I bought and sold back then (for the most part).
You go ahead and trade your stocks. Listening to market sentament as is being projected from this blog, this may be the perfect time to buy.
I have seen the buy/sell ratios from previous historical charts and the negitive energy/FEAR being projected from people right now is what you want, if your going to change directions in a market.
I recall the 10 year bond rate a couple weeks ago reaching 5.30 and everyone thought the 10 year bond was going to the moon... hmmm Now its down to 4.76 and everyone was wrong. I happened to think the 10 year had peaked after looking at a few charts.
Now having looked at a number of charts, I have stated my position on this market. Once everyone is going in one direction, there comes a point when you want to go against the crowd. Now I am thinking that the powers that be, might want to milk this fear a little more and take advatage of it in a bigger way: Thus I am anticipating the market falling even more. But if the market turns, it would catch everyone off gaurd. So I wouldn't be surpised if the potential anticipated drop doesn't occur (as people are waiting for the drop to materialize: that doesn't).
If I had to put a number on the chances of this market falling another 300-600 points, I would say it is about 80%. So I am anticipating it. But as I said before: "I dont think we will see much more then 600 points more taken off the DJIA from this point".
As I have stated before: The global economy is growing, and the US dollar has fallen over 33% against most major currencies in the last 5-7 years. So the stock market has risen about 50% if you take out the currency depreciation from the increase in assets of the US Corporations, listed on the stock exchanges, since the markets lows of October 2002. Considering the 350% gain, in the 9 year period, the DJIA had from Jan 1991-2000 I would hardly say the market is overheated and due for a serious long-term fall.
Unless you are suggesting the global economy is in serious trouble? I think you would be making a big mistake to believe that the United States has the ability to turn the Global economy into a world wide recession. Actually if it wasn't for the Global economy; the U.S. would be in the worst recession since the GREAT DEPRESSION: and maybe heading for the worst recession ever.
Once you rap your head around this, you see that this bull market has very long legs ahead of it: BUT SELL IF YOU WANT.
I am confident in 6 monthes from now, the DJIA will be closer to 15000 then 13000 or even 14000 for that matter.
Posted by: Peter at
July 30, 2007 2:37 AM [link]
From the VectorVest website(http://www.vectorvest.com/):
"Dear Investor:
Imagine it. A computerized stock selecting system with an astounding 99.26% rate of success! And it’s so easy to use that even a beginner can quickly find stocks that could bring you triple-digit profits.
Why? Because VectorVest is based on 28 years of research, 14 years of historical data and a computer algorithm so complex it accounts for every important variable that affects a stock’s price. Plus it can provide you with an in depth stock analysis of over 13,500 companies, from the pink sheets to blue chips.
Yet this system is so easy you can find winning stocks in less than 20 seconds. (With programming features to help you make quick profits, invest for the long term, or sell stocks short). So that’s why I’m making you a very special no-risk offer. Click here to try VectorVest for a Risk-Free 5-Week Trial."
Peter, is this the same VectorVest system that you have talked about in your posts? Is this the same system from Dr. Bart A. DiLiddo, PhD that says stocks are a buy here because, per your post above, the "Vector Vest Value Line" and the "VectorVest Composite" have "merely corrected to average price in the two lines" and so "IT IS TIME TO BUY THE MARKET FROM HERE ON, IF THE MARKET CONTINUES TO FALL."?
Or is there a different VectorVest?
Posted by: MarkM at
July 30, 2007 6:30 AM [link]
Consistent with what I said earlier, here's a link from Morse from Lehman (on Bloomberg)regarding rising oil prices. He predicts an even higher range for in the next 12 months:
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/BBRECON/vDbLmvSVLFYc.mp3
Posted by: Simon A at
July 30, 2007 8:04 AM [link]
Peter,
No offence, but what the heck does it matter where stocks are 6 months from now? Seriously, I read so much.....stuff....on here that makes me laugh. Tell me where stocks are 6 days from now and I'm interested. 6 months? The info is useless. Simply useless. In fact, the biggest Wall street insider copout is when they issue the 'ol 6-8 month outlook. It actually means...get this...it means they have NO IDEA WHERE THE MARKET'S GOING.
Now get back to the drawing board and tell us where the markets will be in 6 days, and I'm interested. In 6 months we may all be in the Bahamas! I apologize for the ascerbic tone, but this 6 month outlook stuff makes me laugh.
Posted by: shark_attack at
July 30, 2007 8:16 AM [link]
from this morning's Glbe and Mail market blog:
In another sign of the U.S. housing and mortgage crisis, American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. has melted down some 44 per cent before the opening bell on Monday.
The mortgage lender says its banks were demanding that it put up more cash after it was forced to write down the value of its mortgage and security portfolios.
American Home Mortgage relies on short-term bank financing to temporarily fund home loans it makes. It then bundles those loans into bonds and sells them investors, using the bond sales proceeds to pay back the banks.
The stock is changing hands at $5.85 (U.S.), down from Friday’s NYSE close of $10.47, when it slumped to a 52-week week
Posted by: joey at
July 30, 2007 9:05 AM [link]
Bill,
Thank you for another insightful WIR.
Mark M,
I'm glad you are here on the "mainland" and sharing your thoughts here. Professional no-nonsense comments keep me coming back and with Bill having internet difficulties your guidance is greatly appreciated.
Sarah-Hadassah
Posted by: SH at
July 30, 2007 9:27 AM [link]
I believe that the reason you see platinum down is the announcement by Nissan that they've come up with a way to reduce the amount of platinum required in catalytic converters by half, which, if successful, puts a large dent in the demand side of this market.
Posted by: bb at
July 30, 2007 9:28 AM [link]
Peter,
I appreciate your commentary, even though Sharkie may not think it is apropos. In fact, I care about where stocks are even 6 YEARS from now! Here's hoping mine are still in the green :)
Posted by: chas at
July 30, 2007 9:35 AM [link]
Hey Mark
Yes its the same Vector Vest. It is one of the most thorough (thus powerful) anilitical tools I have seen, to evaluate stocks and the market in general.
In order to evaluate their software properly you have to get the trial account and learn to use the tools in the charting tools they provide.
There is a series of tutorials that will help you learn how to use the software, to get the most out of it, under the Vector Vest University section; which you should use to get familure with the software.
Posted by: Peter at
July 30, 2007 9:36 AM [link]
Re: VectorVest
I've been trialing this system for the last two weeks and can't say I'm too impressed as yet. I'm disturbed by a system that assigns a "value" to Alcan of $168 and calls it a strong buy at it's current price of $102, when it's pretty much a done deal that this stock is going to be taken out by Rio Tinto at a price of $101. I'd say Rio Tinto's "value" is more accurate and meaningful than that put on it by VectorVest. How the hell do you make money on a stock by buying it at $102 and then having it taken off you at $101?!? Yes, I'm sure there's some speculative premium in the stock currently, with the faint hope that the takeover bid will be upped; and yes, there may be a dividend payable before cashout, but c'mon ... if that's one of VectorVest's top picks, they're not impressing me so far.
Posted by: manx928 at
July 30, 2007 9:46 AM [link]
UNG up almost 3% at the open...taking profits here for now...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
July 30, 2007 9:46 AM [link]
2nd,
Congrats on UNG!
Posted by: Fred at
July 30, 2007 9:50 AM [link]
"Anyone who blindly bought Thursday's dip got their rear ends handed to them as a result. And there were many. So it is NOT like February's drop nor those in 2006, 2005 or 2004."
MarkM, It's hard to argue against your crystal ball based on its history, IMO one could still profit from Thursday's lows in the next few days.
Posted by: JogyP at
July 30, 2007 10:00 AM [link]
Hey Manx
Forget about using it for buy/sell recommendations because it does that buy timing a stocks direction. Personally I don't use it at all like that.
If you like analizing info/data this software is for you; because you can search for stocks using very indepth search criteria. If that is not your game this is not your software.
Posted by: Peter at
July 30, 2007 10:03 AM [link]
Two fairly interesting KRY related things happened this weekend. Firstly, Cramer, on Friday's show, blessed KRY as a "speculation" but put a casual 3 dollar price target on it. Secondly, there's a bizarre story out of VZ regarding a possible coupe de etat and KRY backers who may have been involved
www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=75045
Posted by: shark_attack at
July 30, 2007 10:07 AM [link]
STO opened up 2.5%.
Posted by: Simon A at
July 30, 2007 10:13 AM [link]
JogyP-
Not disagreeing with you.
"We are very oversold ST and the market is ripe for a snap back rally. That doesn't mean one happens here but since 2004 these levels of oversold have provided the type of floor leading to market gains over the intermediate term."
They are wrestling over direction here this morning, aren't they? The action is okay but you'd rather see tech and financials leading the way not energy. Broader market is stronger than the indices right now.
Posted by: MarkM at
July 30, 2007 10:14 AM [link]
Peter,
Don't you find VectorVest kind of pricey for an analytical tool? I don't really know, because I'm knew enough to this that I'm still exploring and using free stuff for the most part.
I've had a similar reaction to things like AlphaTrade, which provides some good streaming quotes, etc., but I'm not convinced they offer much more than I would get by switching to E-Trade with enough money in my account to qualify for free or discounted services and tools.
Posted by: manx928 at
July 30, 2007 10:32 AM [link]
After publishing Saturday, the Starbucks network went down for the weekend, so I could not make typos, etc. Today, I am working from Camp Hywel on Cable Beach for the day, so I'll get lots done. Tomorrow I'll be at Camp Julian for the day, and get even more done. The hotel under new management had the ISP in on the weekend, and that service may be up on Wednesday. Hopefully by the end of the week, I will have my own residence to camp out at. :-)
Posted by: Bill Cara at
July 30, 2007 10:41 AM [link]
Cheers, Bill!
It will be good to see you back but don't work too hard! A relaxed coach is much easier to listen to than an overworked one ;)
Posted by: chas at
July 30, 2007 10:45 AM [link]
IBKR:
I was thinking about this when I added IBKR last week, but then Barrons came out and said it.
"Turmoil may help Interactive Brokers shares"
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2936496420070729?rpc=44
Posted by: JogyP at
July 30, 2007 10:59 AM [link]
This market is like me...manic depressive
Posted by: shark_attack at
July 30, 2007 11:11 AM [link]
What longs want here is a nice slow build and a good finish. Good action out of the financials and maybe real estate would be nice.
Tells: BKX, XBD, GOOG, AAPL.
I'll comment after the close. I'm taking the girls to the children's library.
Posted by: MarkM at
July 30, 2007 11:19 AM [link]
To be able to chart things like EPS and Sales Growth, is a very useful tool for me. I stress charting as oppose to me having to look through each and every stock to find these numbers manually.
The fact that I can use an analitical tool, and pull-up stocks with certain growth patterns, and get the ones I am looking for in minutes, as oppose to days by having to do it manually, is worth every penny to me; and much more.
As well to have a tool that gives me a value line that I can I can compare to other stocks in that sector in minutes is also very helpful.
Next, To be able to do searches using these criteria and more, makes this tool extremely worth while.
I haven't found a better tool, that I can use, to seek-out stocks using these or other important criteria.
Is it worth $60 a month to find a stock that has a breakout in its real value, that hasn't been implemented into its stock price? To me it is.
Posted by: Peter at
July 30, 2007 11:24 AM [link]
Glad I held on to my MPEL after the 9-day downfall from hell that was inflicted on this stock ended last week.
The company announced they are issuing convertible bonds to raise cash to buy back ADR shares this morning and wham, right back up.
Posted by: BillySundance at
July 30, 2007 11:36 AM [link]
6 months ahead seems too speculative, but 6 weeks ahead could be actionable...
Posted by: northvan at
July 30, 2007 11:38 AM [link]
2nd, nice trade, nice profit taking. fwiw, over weekend i see that gold is going to be on the radar as having more relative strength...moving up the list of asset classes. Even with possibility of rate hike, a weak dollar picture still seems to have consensus and this would support gold. Ok, I already have that one covered.
IMF raised global growth. No wonder china etfs are still the big gorrilla. One would think this is the highest risk...but so far highest returns, with low drawdown. Another benefit of the weak dollar, therefore, would be multinationals like cara 100's GE and UTX. I would think it would be fine to go outside the u.s. for these megacaps too? Any thoughts on this concept?
Posted by: jasper at
July 30, 2007 11:39 AM [link]
Peter,
If you don't mind sharing with us, what is your average yearly return with your new investment strategy using vectorvest.
Do you have the "astounding 99.26% rate of success" vectorvest claims?
Posted by: JogyP at
July 30, 2007 11:40 AM [link]
Every year that ends in 7 since 1827 has had a major stock market panic, most notably 100 years ago in 1907 - rich man's panic, 1947 and 1987. 1997 also saw a 20% decline before the public knew about the Asian financial crisis.
This market is dependent on debt and leverage. No one knows how much leverage is being used and how many margin calls are being made. Once we get momentum to the downside valuations are not going to matter much IMO. You sell what you can not what you want. Human emotion is a major factor in stock prices and the emotional pendulum is swinging from complacency towards fear, but we are not there yet. Peter indicates sentiment is highly negative but I don't see that. I think most players still think this is a healthy <10% correction, nothing more. A bounce today is very important for stalling the downside momentum.
I'm nearly fully hedged. If Friday's lows don't hold today, the selling accelerates, and my tells go negative I will sell some of my longs to go net short in the short term.
Posted by: moab at
July 30, 2007 11:42 AM [link]
One of the things that may be weighing on Yamana Gold, and I say MAY, because I'm not an expert on this stuff, but the weekly AUY made a very inauspicious candle pattern called "falling three methods" the last 5 weeks. Now, this may be a simple re-test of the 11 lows, but I'm not sure. Any expert candle maven out there want to help us on this one?
For its part, GSS is dithering just above the 200 day (where it better stay) and is showing signs of life. It's buyable on a close above that moving average.
Posted by: shark_attack at
July 30, 2007 11:47 AM [link]
Regarding market prediction tools with an impressive track record, if you read German (although you can use the site without knowing German since much is in English), check out www.timepatternanalyis.de. I found this site through Colin Twiggs who was working with the author, Klaus Singer, to develope a better recession predicting tool than the Wright model. Singer has a lot of sophistication on the mathematical side and is happy to communicate in English. Access to his site costs 52 euros per month. I'm really impressed with his analyis and his honesty. He also writes a very informative weekly email. I find his approach more satisfying than standard technical analysis which at times seems like voodoo (just my two cents--no offense intended... There is a nice discussion of generating head and shoulders etc in Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", cf. also Mandelbrot's book "The Misbehavior of Markets").
Posted by: aucourant at
July 30, 2007 11:51 AM [link]
Hi Guys,
Not too bad a day so far. Offed some of my ultras at a profit this AM then rode the little bump.
For Americans, on Bill's notion of buying dividend paying equities at bargain prices, I urge you to check out PGH Pengrowth energy Trust, which just announced it's Canadian DRIP program is now available to Yanks.
The div is around 17% and the reinvest is at a 5% discount, plus you can buy $900 USD of stock at 5% discount per month as well.
Such as deal if you think oil is in short supply.
And it's on sale right now.......like everything else.
When they take the piano player in with the hookers I'm buying the piano.
Posted by: Craig at
July 30, 2007 11:56 AM [link]
I have only used the free trial version so far but I have found a site called www.stockfetcher.com that has an interesting stock screen methodology. There are also forums to compare and discuss different filters. I haven't used it to base any trading on specifically yet but I do find it to be a unique resource from the others I have found. Opinions welcome.
Posted by: BillySundance at
July 30, 2007 12:14 PM [link]
JogyP
I just starting using Vector Vest within the last 2 months. Again I strickly use it to find my own stocks using its search tools adding in my own criteria.
Give me 6 months to continue using the program the way I am and I will post my success/failure in January 08 using their software.
I will say this: I used it to find/buy IOM $5.00 Dec. Call options at 25 cents. I am anticipating a very large return on this investment.
Vector Vest is not for everyone: Personally I don't think most people could benifit from it, the way I do. It will only work for you if you like finding patterns that play out, and it will take time for you to understand how you need to use it, to make it work for you. In no way will it provide you with stocks to buy, unless you are willing to do the work and put in the time to look for patters that play out, the majority of the time. As well, you should want to look into the financials to see the story of were the company may be going. If that sounds to complicated for you; then I would not bother with Vector Vest; personally.
Those of you that know, you will do all that is possible (and I stress: "ALL" that is possible (it will be work to learn how to be successful using VV's tools)) to take advantage of information that can give you an advantage, should find Vector Vests unisearch tool a very advantageous tool in your hands.
Posted by: Peter at
July 30, 2007 12:22 PM [link]
FWIW. I have no special knowledge concerning the mining exploration group that many here like. Nonetheless, I have been wary of the group for some time because these companies have little or no income and rely instead on the funds they are able to raise from credit lines and stock sales. I assume (which means that I do not know) that these companies are dependent on the continued availability of easy credit. If so, I do not understand why, in the absence of easy creidt, they will not be in for a great deal of difficulty the financing their exploration and takeover dreams, unless of course the price of gold really skyrockets. However, for the foreseeable future, a skyrocketing gold price does not appear to be a reality. If that is the case, shouldn't the price of the explorers decline further?
Posted by: lessmore at
July 30, 2007 12:31 PM [link]
Moab,
You're right about Friday's lows...they need to hold, or it's lookout beeeeeeeeeellllllllllllooooooowwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: shark_attack at
July 30, 2007 12:52 PM [link]
Bill has a new post up.
Posted by: writersblock at
July 30, 2007 1:00 PM [link]
jasper-glad to see the miners held at the opening lows and are now much higher...for some reason, still think you should be using this spike to build your cash position....
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
July 30, 2007 1:04 PM [link]
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always enjoy reading the daily summary,
thanks for the great work,
dr. cosa
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July 28, 2007 10:28 AM [link]