The subject is Jim Ballsilie of Research In Motion (RIMM/RIM) who, you may know, I think has a less than straight forward way of doing business.

This feature sports section article in the Toronto Star this weekend tells you all you need to know about the human being behind the BlackBerry. Because of his arrogance in assuming he is bigger than the National Hockey League, bigger than life apparently, his money couldn’t buy two hockey teams in recent months, and it clearly didn’t impress this Star sports writer either.

When I am making decisions to support or not support a company, I look to the personal make-up of its Chairman and Chief Executive. I want to know how these people treat other people. I need to know if they believe in social equity or if they are the type of person who might work in darkened boardrooms to foist one over on us.

I walk only on the ground I feel most comfortable. Over the years, if you do the same, you will find it pays off.

You might recall how for many months two years ago I said that I would not support Boeing (BA) as long as Harry Stonecipher was at the helm. After it became an issue at his Board of how he treated women, and was dismissed, the present CEO James McNerney was parachuted in from 3M (MMM). Immediately I switched MMM for BA in the Cara 100. My confidence in the company’s new leadership was well rewarded.

You might not think this is a big issue, but it is. PR can take a company only so far. As you recall, I was mocking Stonecipher’s weekly record-breaking numbers for news releases. All vim and vigor for a while, but eventually the truth came out.

Qualitative assessments of a public company are just as important as the quantitative ones. Goodwill translates into higher share prices, lower cost of capital, happier employees, and ultimately better decisions, higher profits and more rapid asset growth, of a corporation.

Because of substantial bought-and-paid-for PR support of many of these companies, we, the owners and managers of capital, tend not to see beyond the veneer that is intended for us. We must look deeper because there are usually reasons why facts are hidden from us. I believe in transparency in capital markets, and in the notion that ‘sunlight is the best disinfectant’.

I hope you do as well.

Coming to light presently is the shameful practice of Wall Street in securitizing loans (sold to us owners and managers of capital) that are supposed to be asset backed, but in fact, when fully exposed, are backed by what can only be described as dubious assets. Like the corporate back-dating of options, we have been duped.

When does the nonsense end?

Corporate behavior is one thing, but the very principal foundation of the financial services industry – their principles – of always treating the customer fairly, always ahead of their own interests, “full, true and plain disclosure” and all, we now see is a worthless con.

Wall Street today is scrambling to throw a blanket over this truth. At some point, however, I believe that Very Important People will be going to prison over this fiasco, and the denouement may finally be a complete re-examination of the entire industry by legislators in all the economically powerful countries.

Scoff at my words today, if you will. Just wait until the global Bear market hits. This will turn ugly.

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: Mixed markets at best. Everybody is looking to see if there might be a debt market fall-out, which could raise interest rates.

U.S. Equities : The broad US market indexes were marginally stronger this week. All in all, the results were not remarkable. There was a lot of chatter about Research In Motion BlackBerry actual sales and revenue growth and the presumption the same would happen to Apple because of the iPhone or Apple Phone that hit the market this week.

Dow 30 : The DJIA moved from 13360 to 13408. Nothing much. It’s still a little lower than the close of 13424 three weeks ago. The market is still nervous: there were 18 Dow components up, 11 down and 1 flat.

U.S. Sector ETFs: This week there were 5 ETF’s up and 5 down. It was a rather unremarkable week except that T (+6.8 pct) and GM (+6.0 pct) seemed to be used to hold up the Dow 30 index.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #9 (-1.4 pct); Higher $WTIC didn’t help once again
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #10 (-1.5 pct); Lots of profit-taking
20: Industrials (XLI): #5 (+0.1 pct); Not much action until Friday
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #6 (-0.13 pct); Nike still afoot
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #3 (+0.22 pct); Not much happening
35: Healthcare (IYH): #4 (+0.13 pct); Another break-down on Friday
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #8 (-0.7 pct); Tough day Friday
45: Tech (SMH chips): #7 (-0.6 pct); Fri. ruined the week
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #2 (+0.4 pct); T (+6.8 pct), but VZ (-1.1 pct). Wow!
55: Utilities (XLU): #1 (+1.8 pct); From #10 to #1 means bonds rallied

Bonds: Traders moved more into Bonds this week. The yields dropped -4 to -13 basis points, more for the long bond. The slope of the yield curve lessened. I think it was an unremarkable week for bonds, however.

Commodities: $CRB was modestly higher. The reason was Crude Oil. Equity markets need for the $WTIC to drop before the prices can soar again.

Oil & Gas: This week, $WTIC lifted a further +1.54/bbl. I am still “wondering if a new inflation reality will lift it to a 65-75 range, which would be consistent with the $USD that I believe is ready to fall”.

Gold: $GOLD had a bad week, losing -6.10/oz (-0.93 pct) to 650.90, and $XAU (135.95) was down -2.3 pct W/W after being down -1.1 pct a week ago. However, two weeks ago, $XAU jumped up +4.0 pct. I still think it’s a case of “Lots of talk, but little action.”

Goldminers: The $XAU took more profits, but I think the selling could be over now as traders have seen that the Euro has had a strong three weeks against the USD.

Forex: The $USD dropped -0.52 pct, following a week where the loss was -0.61 pct. So the $USD is now at 81.92. Could a $USD in the 70’s be far off?

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International Economics Review

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week

Friday’s report on US Personal Income & Outlays for May (data released

Thursday’s report on Final 1Q07 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Wednesday’s report on US Durable Goods Orders for May

Monday’s report on US Existing Home Sales for May

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed the week at 13408.6, up +0.37 pct from 13360.3, but it was a nervous see-saw week.

There is a lot of technical support in the 12750-12800 area (May-June-07 trading). There is even more support down at about the 12050 level of March-07.

As I pointed out a week ago, “if you have been watching the Momentum indicators (RSI and MACD on these pages), you will have noted they have given an Intermediate and Short-term time horizon Sell Alert, as the Daily and then the Weekly RSI-7 dropped below 70. Traders who use that time frame have taken some profits, particularly in the interest rate sensitive area (Utilities, REITs, Financials) and moved into T-Bills and short-term bonds, which offer competitive returns but much less risk.”

This week, they moved back into Bonds, and out of commodity-related stocks as well as Financials and Techs. Who knows what is likely to happen next week? But, for those who are mindful of watching the RSI charts on the Weekly price data series for the major indexes, you will note a breakdown that occurs about once a year only.

So, “in the bigger picture, I feel that long-term oriented traders have to recognize that any DJIA trading in the 11’s (below 12000) would be significant. A primary Bear market, on a fundamental basis, using today’s US interest rate, commodity price and econ datapoints, would have to take the DJIA down to below 10,000, possibly down below 9000.”

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

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Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.

Five of the ten sector ETF’s I follow here were up or down this week – depending on whether you see the glass half full or empty. But, over two weeks, the glass is clearly empty. All ten sectors are down.

Table 1 is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	39.50	0.23	0.59%	1.80%	-2.32%	-5.07%	7.28%	-1.52%	7.57%	22.67%
IYZ	33.83	0.03	0.09%	0.39%	-0.85%	-2.06%	14.06%	8.67%	14.10%	33.66%
XLP	27.05	0.03	0.11%	0.22%	-1.60%	-3.05%	2.93%	1.77%	3.60%	11.32%
IYH	69.54	-0.33	-0.47%	0.13%	-2.65%	-4.14%	4.63%	4.27%	4.71%	15.90%
XLI	39.04	0.14	0.36%	0.10%	-0.96%	-0.61%	10.81%	9.60%	11.51%	15.37%
XLY	39.33	0.05	0.13%	-0.13%	-1.26%	-2.48%	2.10%	3.69%	2.53%	17.86%
SMH	38.05	-0.29	-0.76%	-0.60%	-0.50%	2.89%	13.35%	13.31%	12.91%	15.06%
XLF	36.18	-0.20	-0.55%	-0.71%	-3.39%	-4.84%	-2.00%	1.83%	-1.52%	11.56%
XLE	68.99	0.24	0.35%	-1.39%	-2.80%	0.10%	21.93%	12.88%	17.67%	21.98%
XLB	40.43	0.18	0.45%	-1.46%	-1.63%	-2.11%	16.82%	6.45%	15.85%	26.54%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

ExxonMobil (XOM) and ChevronTexaco (CVX), the two biggest US oil companies (and Cara 100 companies as well) were hammered a week ago Friday. CVX, which was down -2.0 pct that day was up +3.3 pct this week. XOM, which dropped -4.0 pt on Friday a week ago was up +1.7 pct this week.

A week ago, $WTIC was up +0.71 (to 69.14/bbl), and this week the beat kept going, +1.54/bbl (+2.23 pct). But XLE dropped -1.4 pct to 68.99, which was the second worst performer this week, despite a gain on Friday.

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Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
STO	31.01	0.80	2.65%	5.08%	6.64%	10.04%	20.71%	11.79%	17.82%	7.23%
CVX	84.24	0.06	0.07%	3.30%	1.29%	2.44%	18.70%	12.39%	14.57%	34.89%
TOT	80.98	1.26	1.58%	3.04%	2.83%	6.47%	14.10%	15.62%	12.60%	26.24%
XOM	83.88	0.28	0.33%	1.65%	-2.40%	-0.40%	13.18%	10.02%	9.46%	34.49%
SU	89.92	1.48	1.67%	0.16%	-1.68%	1.42%	21.66%	16.67%	13.95%	12.01%
CEO	113.69	0.63	0.56%	0.00%	3.80%	17.62%	20.60%	27.87%	20.14%	40.72%
PBR	121.27	0.10	0.08%	-0.19%	-0.16%	9.05%	21.68%	19.69%	17.75%	37.98%
IMO	46.44	0.30	0.65%	-0.41%	-1.61%	-2.31%	30.23%	23.41%	26.09%	29.68%
ECA	61.45	0.50	0.82%	-6.18%	-6.47%	-1.48%	35.53%	19.88%	33.73%	16.03%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

Statoil (STO) jumped +5.1 pct W/W, but Canada’s EnCana dropped -6.2 pct.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) was this week’s worst performer, losing -1.46 pct W/W to 40.43. It was relatively strong a week ago.

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GGB	25.72	0.10	0.39%	3.46%	1.98%	7.75%	56.64%	43.53%	60.75%	72.85%
TS	48.96	-0.01	-0.02%	1.51%	0.53%	-1.79%	0.91%	4.93%	-1.86%	22.43%
AA	40.53	1.23	3.13%	1.32%	-2.57%	-2.24%	38.19%	20.34%	35.05%	27.05%
RTP	306.12	3.09	1.02%	0.89%	-0.74%	3.30%	49.99%	35.63%	44.06%	45.63%
BHP	59.75	0.50	0.84%	0.47%	3.25%	10.77%	53.72%	23.65%	50.31%	41.12%
PKX	120.00	1.56	1.32%	-0.83%	-7.41%	-2.12%	51.08%	12.28%	45.16%	77.65%
RIO	44.55	0.54	1.23%	-1.37%	-5.11%	-5.25%	54.58%	20.34%	49.80%	88.77%
MT	62.40	-0.25	-0.40%	-3.12%	-2.91%	-1.53%	52.94%	17.47%	47.94%	93.07%
NUE	58.65	0.46	0.79%	-4.73%	-6.93%	-15.31%	7.61%	-11.28%	7.30%	6.91%
TCK	42.50	0.09	0.21%	-5.49%	-8.58%	-0.47%	-38.63%	-39.42%	-43.60%	-27.97%

There was more profit-taking in this sector this week! Yamana (AUY -12.2 pct), Kinross (KGC -7.7 pct), Teck (TCK -5.5 pct), Goldfields (GFI -4.9 pct), Nucor (NUE -4.7 pct) and Mittal (MT -3.1 pct) were softest. Meridian Gold (MDG +6.6 pct on a take-over bid) and Gerdau Steel (GGB +3.5 pct) were strongest.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Industrials (XLI) gained just +0.10 W/W to close at 39.04. Friday was up +0.36 pct to make that happen.

Honeywell (HON), which suffered a loss of -5.4 pct the prior week, was strongest (but not strong) at +1.1 pct W/W. Along with the miners, Caterpillar (CAT -3.2 pct W/W) took a hit.

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Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HON	56.28	-0.10	-0.18%	1.08%	-4.40%	-4.29%	24.79%	22.51%	24.40%	40.84%
ABB	22.60	0.14	0.62%	0.94%	1.57%	3.96%	26.82%	31.55%	25.70%	79.08%
FDX	110.97	-1.40	-1.25%	0.92%	-0.36%	-0.29%	1.09%	3.04%	2.16%	-5.15%
MMM	86.79	-0.06	-0.07%	0.42%	-1.00%	-1.85%	10.90%	14.06%	11.37%	6.95%
BA	96.16	1.00	1.05%	0.25%	-2.03%	-3.68%	7.84%	7.13%	8.24%	15.86%
GE	38.28	0.16	0.42%	0.10%	0.42%	2.22%	0.82%	7.68%	2.88%	15.06%
UTX	70.93	-0.16	-0.23%	-0.63%	-1.50%	0.21%	12.93%	9.14%	13.45%	12.07%
ERJ	48.21	-0.16	-0.33%	-0.99%	-6.26%	-0.35%	18.22%	7.49%	16.36%	35.04%
CAT	78.30	-0.79	-1.00%	-3.21%	-3.46%	0.20%	28.02%	18.30%	27.67%	5.24%

Fedex (FDX) reained +0.92 pct W/W, but got hammered down -1.25 pct on Friday.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) did diddly, losing -0.13 pct (5 cents) W/W to close at 39.33.

A week ago, I wrote, “The big story continues to be Starbucks (SBUX). Do you recall the Starbucks executives going from one TV network to another for months on end? Now they don’t want to talk. The beans have been spilled. A tough grind ahead, so says their bean counter. Ahh, but that is always the best time to buy the stock, when it’s being thrown out with the dishwater, which in the case of Starbucks is not a pretty picture. Is this one going to turn out like Krispy Kreme? I hardly think so."

This week, SBUX brewed a gain of +2.7 pct, but the fastest runner was who else but Nike (NKE +10.1 pct), based on terrific operating results.

Brunswick Corp (BC -3.4 pct W/W) saw some profit-taking.

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NKE	58.29	0.00	0.00%	10.08%	9.12%	2.82%	19.37%	11.05%	17.73%	43.96%
SBUX	26.24	-0.21	-0.79%	2.74%	-5.51%	-9.92%	-25.56%	-16.25%	-25.92%	-30.89%
TM	125.88	1.21	0.97%	2.32%	0.34%	2.39%	-6.96%	-3.13%	-6.28%	23.13%
EBAY	32.18	0.22	0.69%	1.32%	0.44%	-0.28%	6.66%	-2.60%	7.02%	9.98%
DIS	34.14	0.29	0.86%	0.00%	-0.76%	-3.12%	-0.18%	-0.73%	-0.38%	14.26%
JCP	72.38	-0.54	-0.74%	-0.81%	-4.36%	-11.72%	-7.28%	-10.94%	-6.44%	6.93%
CCL	48.77	0.23	0.47%	-1.12%	-1.89%	-3.50%	-4.28%	4.01%	-0.57%	18.75%
WHR	111.20	-1.35	-1.20%	-1.58%	-3.05%	-0.17%	31.35%	31.61%	33.94%	34.94%
BC	32.63	-0.32	-0.97%	-3.40%	-3.46%	-6.24%	2.22%	3.29%	2.29%	0.87%

Ahh, this week, Toyota Lexus was up +2.3 pct, and Gold and Platinum were down -0.9 pct and -2.0 pct respectively. “The hedge works!”

Isn’t this fun?

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +0.22 pct W/W to close at $27.05, but I don’t want to talk about a gain of six cents.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MO	70.14	0.22	0.31%	2.84%	-0.75%	-2.34%	8.04%	7.25%	8.90%	26.49%
ABV	70.00	0.62	0.89%	1.46%	-6.34%	-1.00%	42.57%	28.82%	43.44%	72.54%
KO	52.31	-0.32	-0.61%	1.34%	1.42%	-0.93%	7.68%	8.73%	8.41%	21.48%
WMT	48.11	-0.10	-0.21%	0.59%	-2.49%	-2.75%	1.18%	2.98%	4.18%	-1.23%
PG	61.19	-0.17	-0.28%	0.26%	-2.21%	-3.61%	-5.19%	-3.27%	-4.79%	7.37%
WFMI	38.30	-0.19	-0.49%	0.00%	-3.43%	-8.09%	-15.79%	-13.47%	-18.39%	-40.45%
PEP	64.85	-0.40	-0.61%	-0.02%	-2.74%	-5.60%	3.40%	1.98%	3.68%	8.99%
BUD	52.16	0.42	0.81%	-0.55%	-1.38%	-3.43%	5.97%	3.99%	6.02%	14.06%
DEO	83.31	0.11	0.13%	-0.87%	-2.87%	-3.15%	4.75%	3.98%	5.04%	24.08%
WAG	43.54	0.01	0.02%	-3.24%	-1.63%	-3.52%	-5.49%	-5.76%	-5.12%	-3.82%

I heard a Talking Head at the end of the week espousing the virtues of sin, and claimed his favorite was Altria (MO), which just happened to be up this week +2.8 pct. Walgreen (WAG -3.2 pct) dropped a bit.

If my barber is right, maybe next week that TH will have a new favorite.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The IYH healthcare ETF gained a bit (9 cents), up +0.13 pct W/W to close at 69.54. It was a loser -0.5 pct on Friday.

Do you recall last week me saying, “IYH had been up for seven consecutive Fridays, and I was saying, “The drugmakers and healthcare providers must be happy seeing those legislators go home for the weekends.” But this Friday was different, which just goes to prove that you can only flip a coin seven times in a row and call it before you fail.” Well, back to coin flipping.

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JNJ	61.62	0.12	0.20%	1.47%	-1.83%	-2.82%	-7.20%	2.12%	-6.66%	2.89%
NVS	56.07	0.10	0.18%	1.12%	0.20%	-0.44%	-3.56%	-1.44%	-2.39%	4.98%
DNA	75.66	0.03	0.04%	1.11%	-1.74%	-4.83%	-7.51%	-7.31%	-6.74%	-5.58%
GSK	52.37	-0.08	-0.15%	1.04%	-0.72%	2.13%	-2.68%	-4.00%	-0.74%	-4.71%
PFE	25.57	-0.06	-0.23%	0.75%	-3.40%	-7.62%	-2.74%	0.63%	-1.27%	10.03%
AET	49.40	-0.45	-0.90%	0.59%	-1.65%	-7.26%	15.21%	13.69%	14.40%	25.89%
BMY	31.56	-0.07	-0.22%	0.51%	2.60%	3.54%	19.64%	13.08%	19.91%	22.80%
BMET	45.72	0.12	0.26%	0.48%	0.40%	4.07%	10.25%	7.60%	10.78%	43.41%
UNH	51.14	-0.96	-1.84%	-0.31%	-3.33%	-7.37%	-2.72%	-3.22%	-4.82%	13.62%
AMGN	55.29	-0.02	-0.04%	-1.20%	-6.34%	-2.90%	-19.17%	-0.97%	-19.06%	-15.07%

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was up +1.5 pct and Amgen (AMGN -1.2 pct) went down, in a quiet week.

Do you think this could become universal? (LOL)

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) lost -0.71 pct W/W to close at 36.18. Friday was another disaster -0.55 pct, although not as bad as the previous Friday.

People are still asking, “How solid is my bank?”

Maybe they ought to be asking which high-yield debt laden fund goes under next week?

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Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HBC	91.77	-0.33	-0.36%	-0.55%	-0.85%	-1.53%	-1.29%	4.86%	0.13%	4.82%
JPM	48.45	-0.51	-1.04%	-0.55%	-4.17%	-6.65%	0.79%	-0.10%	0.31%	13.52%
CS	70.96	0.38	0.54%	-0.82%	-3.81%	-7.36%	1.21%	-1.88%	1.59%	0.00%
MS	83.88	-1.00	-1.18%	-0.85%	-5.20%	-2.54%	2.77%	6.95%	3.01%	34.12%
UBS	60.01	0.52	0.87%	-1.06%	-3.94%	-7.73%	-2.25%	0.79%	-0.53%	10.74%
MER	83.58	-2.44	-2.84%	-1.07%	-7.37%	-10.42%	-10.71%	2.54%	-10.23%	19.26%
LEH	75.80	-0.12	-0.16%	-1.07%	-4.14%	0.76%	-3.60%	7.81%	-2.97%	17.37%
DB	144.74	1.12	0.78%	-1.34%	-3.09%	-4.99%	6.95%	8.48%	8.63%	30.75%
C	51.29	-0.52	-1.00%	-2.14%	-4.98%	-5.91%	-7.17%	-0.21%	-7.92%	4.97%
GS	216.75	-2.21	-1.01%	-2.54%	-4.17%	-6.05%	7.99%	4.61%	8.73%	42.41%

All these Financials were down this week. Do you recall a couple weeks ago when I pointed out that if after six months the Financial sector was underwater there would be serious problems ahead for the capital markets? Well, don’t look now, but it is July 1, and look at the YTD performance of the leading Financial companies in the world. On average, they are underwater, pulled down by Merrill Lynch (MER -10.7 pct YTD) and Citigroup (C -7.2 pct YTD).

Only Goldman Sachs (+8.0 pct YTD) and Deutsche Bank (DB +7.0 pct YTD) are holding up.

But in the past four weeks, GS and DB are down -6.1 pct and -5.0 pct respectively.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Last week I wrote, “SMH was rolling up hill (+1.33 pct approx.), but then came Friday. And the echoes of “We are the champions; we are the champions… of them all” were all around us as the music stopped. On Friday, SMH fell -1.47 pct. We’ll have to wait until this week to see if the chips can rise from the dip… We were the champions… of them all! And we rocked you!”

This week the Cara Crystal Ball proved to be a good tool (better than coin flipping!). SMH dropped from #1 to #7, as it dropped -0.60 pct, led by a loss of -0.76 pct on this Friday.

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Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CSCO	27.85	0.00	0.00%	3.45%	1.68%	3.69%	0.40%	9.52%	1.90%	39.88%
SNDK	48.94	0.30	0.62%	2.17%	5.47%	15.04%	17.31%	11.68%	13.73%	-6.55%
ORCL	19.71	-0.14	-0.71%	1.65%	-0.76%	0.25%	12.56%	8.54%	14.99%	33.72%
SAP	51.07	0.06	0.12%	1.13%	4.59%	4.12%	-4.00%	14.43%	-3.82%	-2.41%
QCOM	43.39	-0.07	-0.16%	0.93%	1.78%	1.45%	15.83%	2.70%	14.82%	7.03%
ADSK	47.08	-0.69	-1.44%	0.90%	4.62%	4.86%	16.07%	26.73%	16.22%	36.58%
INTC	23.74	-0.18	-0.75%	0.17%	-2.06%	6.17%	16.66%	24.36%	17.23%	22.88%
CTSH	75.00	-1.60	-2.09%	-1.22%	-5.09%	-3.98%	-3.55%	-16.38%	-2.67%	11.26%
INFY	50.38	-1.05	-2.04%	-1.51%	-5.50%	1.18%	-9.75%	0.44%	-7.66%	34.38%
ADBE	40.15	-0.27	-0.67%	-1.69%	-6.08%	-9.84%	0.58%	-3.32%	-2.31%	32.07%

SanDisk (SNK) is still a good story in this area, up +2.2 pct, after being up +3.2 pct the prior week, and a very solid five weeks of rock’m, sock’m. Over 4 weeks, SNDK is up +15.0 pct.

Cisco (CSCO +3.5 pct W/W) was also strong.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) gained +0.39 pct W/W to close at 33.83 (a very lucky number in China, given that some of us are gamblers).

The biggest of the Big Bells, T (+6.8 pct) reversed the previous week’s loss of -3.6 pct. VZ was not so fortunate, going down -3.2 pct.

But as I have been saying for a couple weeks, “This Telco sector story is still all about M&A within a relatively few companies, many of which you and I would consider to be dogs, but which Humungous Private Equity Corp wants to control for a while.”

This week it was Canada’s leading dog, BCE that led the M&A game. US HPEG too. Do they know what they are buying?

Several months ago, I called the accts dept at Canada’s Ma Bell (the primary BCE asset) to complain I was being dunned for a bill that is paid before time every month. The clerk passed me to a manager who promptly slammed the phone on my ear.

That act put a new spin on the expression, ‘losing assets down the elevator each night’ because it prompted me immediately to remove all business (following which I never received a bill or a collection call of any kind) from BCE.

“Dogs, my friends. It’s time to jump. Start looking for small, technologically innovative, zero-debt companies… Yes, I do believe in this sector, but just not in humungous debt and massive legacy systems.”

And, I’ll add, lousy management.

I think in the late 90’s, when young people realized these telco’s were dead from the ankles up and would never be offering staff stock options (ones that would ever pay off in any case), they departed for “greener” pastures. All that is left is for HPEC to clean up the manure.

But given that those companies were already loaded in debt, what pray tell can HPEC add to the mix? All I can see happening is that there are humungous loans (increased debt) to buy back shares and pay out higher dividends. When the money going out doesn’t equal the operating money coming in, that’s called a Return Of Capital. Beware these slick operators. They may not give us acceptable telco service but they apparently know how to con the majority of the owners and managers of capital.

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) finally turned around. From performer #10 to this week’s #1.

XLU gained +1.80 pct W/W to close at 39.50, after dropping -4.06 pct the previous week.

That’s a tip-off that the Bond market was in recovery mode this week.

The problem is that, with inflation and bad debts and dubious collateral for these debts, I believe interest rates cannot sink too far. That means the Bonds cannot rally too far either.

Long-term (for a year or so, at least), I wouldn’t touch XLU with a 10-year Bond yield! (LOL). Actually, we could see some major change occur here after the equity market Bull starts to open wounds on Wall Street and the “G”-team invoke their powers to cut bond yields (by having the Fed buy up HB&B’s bonds).

Some people are calling that one, ‘Plunge Protection’.

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Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

A week ago I wrote, “The US Bond market stopped dropping at the short end, but otherwise the week was unremarkable. The Lehman 20-year+ bond ETF (TLT) gained +0.04 pct W/W to 83.72 (three cents is better than nothing, especially if it’s copper). But, yet again, the big story was Friday as bond prices popped (and yields dropped). The $USB gained +0.24 pct on the day, closing at 106.38, and TLT jumped +0.52 pct. So, on Fridays the bonds are being goosed.“

Students, did we learn anything?

This week, TLT (Lehman 20+ year Bonds) jumped +1.80 pct, and Friday’s gain (+1.10 pct) was a lot of that action. How about the TIPs (inflation-protected Treasury’s), which gained +0.52 pct W/W, but the gain on Friday was +0.60 pct!

So the Bond rally continues. The bad news is that it cannot continue for long unless the equity market goes down the can, forcing the Fed to cut rates or flood more liquidity into the system.

Heaven forbid the latter if HPEC doesn’t have more M&A deals lined up. Some of that excess money just might find its way into gold and platinum.

Depending on the data source (I use Yahoo Finance, which in turn uses ValuBond, which is quite different than Bloomberg, which is what professional traders use), the yields on the 30, 10, 5 and 2 year US Treasury paper at the close of the week were 5.10 (-13 basis points), 5.01 (-10 bp), 4.91 (-8 bp), and 4.85 (-4 bp) pct respectively.

That is an impressive two-week performance.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Interactive Daily data charts:

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US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.65	4.61	4.56	4.66
6 Month	4.71	4.71	4.73	4.75
2 Year	4.85	4.92	4.89	4.86
3 Year	4.87	4.95	4.94	4.82
5 Year	4.91	4.98	4.99	4.80
10 Year	5.01	5.08	5.11	4.85
30 Year	5.10	5.18	5.23	4.98

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.75	3.74	3.78	3.66
2yr AAA	3.71	3.71	3.75	3.63
2yr A	3.72	3.74	3.82	3.67
5yr AAA	3.82	3.83	3.89	3.70
5yr AA	3.87	3.88	3.89	3.72
5yr A	2.13	2.20	2.23	3.74
10yr AAA	4.04	4.02	4.07	3.84
10yr AA	4.11	4.11	4.14	3.83
10yr A	4.25	4.23	4.28	4.11
20yr AAA	4.63	4.69	4.73	4.42
20yr AA	4.51	4.50	4.68	4.31
20yr A	4.66	4.68	4.73	4.30

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.22	5.30	5.25	5.23
2yr A	5.32	5.39	5.36	5.31
5yr AAA	5.46	5.53	5.52	5.33
5yr AA	5.55	5.62	5.62	5.37
5yr A	5.60	5.70	5.68	5.43
10yr AAA	5.81	5.84	5.86	5.67
10yr AA	5.86	5.91	5.95	5.59
10yr A	5.95	5.98	6.00	5.68
20yr AAA	6.18	6.21	6.24	5.95
20yr AA	6.15	6.20	6.25	5.93
20yr A	6.32	6.35	6.37	6.09

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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A week ago I wrote, “It will be interesting to see if the Fed and HB&B can hold the bond market here, or even rally it a bit, to hold equity prices from collapsing. I think they can, but I am not in the room and hence I am, like you, out of the deal.”

Two weekends ago, I wrote, “On Thursday, we got a short-term Buy Alert on Bonds, as the RSI-7 Daily popped up across the 30 line. It is now 39.3. Meanwhile the Weekly and Monthly RSI-7 data is 18.8 and 32.1… The Fed has nowhere to turn here. I’m waiting for capital to flow out of T-Bills into Gold, should the Fed not drop rates. The spread between the Fed rate and the market rate for T-Bills is ridiculously large. I cannot see that continuing.”

We’ll the bond prices lifted a bit more (you can check the RSI), and the T-Bill yields narrowed a bit closer to the Fed rate (nobody expected the FOMC to drop the rate this past week, did they?), but the Precious Metals were held down. And stepped on. Ouch.

But, really, nothing to be concerned about yet. At least the Oil guys in the White House have let West Texas Intermediate Crude jump up to a seriously high $70.68/bbl.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	85.23	0.93	1.10%	1.80%	1.84%	-0.42%	-4.31%	-3.64%	-3.62%	1.97%
IEF	81.07	0.40	0.50%	0.78%	1.06%	-0.06%	-1.95%	-2.55%	-1.66%	1.25%
TIP	98.98	0.59	0.60%	0.52%	0.96%	0.13%	-0.25%	-2.06%	0.18%	-0.06%
AGG	98.40	0.23	0.23%	0.33%	0.52%	-0.23%	-1.51%	-1.94%	-1.30%	0.97%
SHY	80.16	0.16	0.20%	0.23%	0.44%	0.53%	0.15%	-0.39%	0.25%	0.68%
FNM	65.33	-0.20	-0.31%	-1.02%	-4.97%	1.49%	9.14%	18.37%	10.00%	35.37%
CFC	36.35	0.05	0.14%	-2.23%	-5.41%	-6.56%	-13.68%	7.39%	-14.37%	-4.52%
FRE	60.70	-0.09	-0.15%	-2.52%	-6.62%	-9.52%	-10.59%	1.47%	-10.60%	6.30%

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A week ago I wrote, “Fannie (FNM -4.0 pct), Freddie (FRE -4.2 pct) and Countrywide (CFC -3.3 pct) were a disaster this week as traders are starting to worry about things like F-MBS (Funny Money Backed Securities) (LOL) and credit swaps that might go bad.”

This week, Fannie (FNM -1.0 pct), Freddie (FRE -2.5 pct) and Countrywide (CFC -2.2 pct) continued to sell off.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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$CRB closed at 315.74, up +0.99 (+0.31 pct) on the week. But the big gain was Friday (+0.95 pct), and it was due to Crude Oil ($WTIC was up +1.60 pct on Friday).

I still think the stage is set for rising commodity prices, and a weaker dollar that will be blamed on (who else!) China. End of story.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Aug-07 Crude Oil chart.

The $WTIC price is now 70.68, up +2.2 pct from 69.14, up from 68.54, which was up from 64.76 a week before that, and 65.08 the week before that. Do you see a trend here?

More importantly, do you see that technical analysis is largely a task in trying to determine the timing of that trend reversal as well of course to stay on the right side of that trend.

The $WTIC 50-Day Moving Average (from StockCharts) is now 65.80 and the 200-Day MA is 61.69. Hence the current price (70.68) is well over technical support, and possibly pulling up the trading range from 55-65 to 65-75.

Except for the change of the current numbers, I wrote that before. Some people say I’m a good coin flipper. (LOL)

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

This week, $GOLD dropped -6.10/oz to close at 650.90. On my June 9 WIR, I reported $GOLD was 650.30, so we’re making headway. (LOL)

The 50-day MA is now 667.80 and the 200-day MA is 642.52, so the (i) the important 200-day MA technical support held, and (ii) the current price (650.90) is still somewhere between short-term bearish and long-term bullish.

But, “I still believe that this Summer the 698.00 cycle high on the Weekly data is the next to go, and after that the 730.40 cycle high of May 2006 will be next.” Like a coiled spring. Watch it snap one day.

Spot gold chart for the week

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER had a bad week. A week ago. Then it lost -0.22/oz. This week, $SILVER had a terrible week, dopping -0.55/0z (-4.2 pct) to close at 12.47.

And now the skeptics are pointing to a Point & Figure Chart break-down!

Well I do admit that the P&F can be a meaningful indicator, but today there are precious metal ETF’s (the securitization of real wealth, except this time backed by debt that can be called in a heartbeat by vested interests who want the price to plunge like a waterfall, particularly at times when technical support levels are at hand).

So I am not so quick to jump off that cliff with the waterfall these days. Now I want to stop for a moment to listen to my common sense, which in this case is telling me that if inflation was a problem a week ago it probably is today. Otherwise, why would the majority of the world’s central banks be raising their rates?

And what will happen when they continue to raise those rates, and the Fed (being strung up by a worsening debt crisis) cannot? Of course, the precious metals will lift.

It’s just a matter of time.

Sure we have to protect our capital today, but we don’t have to be stupid about it.

The 50-day MA for $SILVER is 13.27 and the 200-day MA at 13.02, so the current price at 13.47 is now bearish both short-term and long-term. We have to respect that, but we can also have our finger poised to hit the Buy button too.

Yes, “I still think the 14.22 previous cycle high price of the Daily data series will be taken out, but maybe not in June, and then the Feb cycle high of 14.885 is next, probably July-August.” You heard that from me when gold and silver were under siege the past three weeks… Last week I added, “I do admit that for Silver, I have concerns. Silver usually leads.”

This week turned out to be a tough one, as I had figured. But $SILVER can turn on a Dime. Get it?

Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive 60-minute data

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT futures have dropped to 1286.50 from last week’s 1313.00, but actually up from 1285.50 two weeks ago.

The 50-day MA is 1306.87 and the 200-day MA is 1207.73, so the current 1286.50 price is short-term bearish and long-term bullish.

As you know, “I think the 1354.20 cycle high price for Platinum that was set in early May will be taken out before August. The PM Bull is still running, I believe.” Although hammered this week for silver, platinum and palladium (but not so much for gold, and not for copper at all) there is no change to my outlook.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL has been bullish since early October (290.88). It had been a little soft, but regained some color this week.

This week, $PALL dropped -13.12 (-3.44 pct) to close at 368.55. The 50-day MA is 373.97 and the 200-day MA is 346.81.

Two weekends ago I wrote, “The 50-day MA support did not hold recently. As you know, “Based on my PM group analysis, I still anticipate prices ahead, but I have to be cautious at this point.”

Let’s face it; it’s been a tough two weeks.

As for $PALL I have written, “I think the 390.45 cycle high of April will be taken out, maybe not in June, but in July. Possibly the 410.89 cycle high of May 2006 will be surpassed in August. Yes, I continue to believe the PM Bull is running.”

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER gained +6.70 (+1.98 pct W/W) to close at 345.05.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is 345.62 and the 200-day MA is 315.38, so there is long-term technical support at this level, and the price is currently at the short-term MA technical resistance.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MDG	27.58	0.03	0.11%	6.57%	5.07%	3.33%	4.91%	10.45%	-0.76%	-12.39%
BVN	37.46	0.60	1.63%	5.25%	7.09%	8.90%	35.68%	26.30%	33.50%	42.00%
AEM	36.50	0.61	1.70%	0.58%	-0.68%	-3.64%	-6.22%	1.02%	-11.49%	14.64%
LIHRY	40.75	0.34	0.84%	0.02%	-10.54%	-7.20%	23.37%	0.00%	0.00%	2.77%
NEM	39.06	0.39	1.01%	-0.81%	-3.39%	-6.13%	-11.63%	-8.07%	-13.49%	-25.16%
ABX	29.07	0.28	0.97%	-2.29%	-0.24%	-1.22%	-2.55%	0.76%	-5.31%	-0.72%
GG	23.69	0.20	0.85%	-3.03%	-4.59%	-3.58%	-13.35%	-2.27%	-16.70%	-19.50%
GFI	15.70	0.07	0.45%	-4.85%	-4.27%	-10.23%	-14.35%	-13.93%	-16.84%	-30.22%
KGC	11.68	0.19	1.65%	-7.67%	-11.31%	-14.43%	2.28%	-14.31%	-1.68%	13.07%
AUY	11.12	-0.01	-0.09%	-12.16%	-14.40%	-20.68%	-9.81%	-22.40%	-15.63%	17.18%

This week, $XAU dropped -3.22 (-2.31 pct) to close at 135.95.

The 50-day MA (138.41) and 200-day MA (137.08) are close, but higher than the current price, which is a negative.

As I say, “Let’s keep it simple. Gold production is falling. Inflation, though possibly mild, is growing constantly. Fiat money is growing much more rapidly than real (enonomic) wealth, ie, where effective rates of return are obtained based on the risk involved. Unless central banks sell their gold holdings, the price is going higher. Why make it more complicated than that?”

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

After seven consecutive weeks of gains for the $USD, I wrote here two weekends ago, “The question is, can the $USD ride with the Paulson Pride army, or will economic fundamentals pull them down. In other words, as Central Banks around the world raise rates, can the US fail to do the same in order to keep the $USD on a roll up the mountain? I don’t think so, (and) I feel we shall get an answer this Summer.”

Voila. It’s Summer. A week ago (summer’s first week), the $USD closed at 82.35, a loss of 50 cents (-0.61 pct W/W). This week, $USD dropped -043 (-0.52 pct) to close at 81.92.

Can anyone say 70 cent Dollars? Soon.

The $USD 50-Day MA is now 82.19, and the 200-Day MA is 83.90, so the current price (81.92) is now bearish short-term and for the long-term oriented trader.

Here is the chart of the end of the week trading.

The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week.

M3 continues to grow at an excessive rate. Like a Banana Republic, someone wrote.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro (priced in USD) had a third straight winning week, which usually means a winner for the PM group.

$XEU gained +0.48 pct W/W, closing Friday at 135.30. There was a strong gain (+0.61 pct a week ago, and one of (+0.55 pct) the Friday before that, so that means eleven very strong sessions in a row.

The $XEU 50-Day MA is 134.90, and the 200-Day MA is 131.34, so the current price (135.30) is now bullish, short-term and long.

As I wrote in this space two weeks ago, “I think there will be some short-term bullishness ahead.” If I could only get the PM thing down, I’d be a happier camper.

Give me time.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The British Pound gained +0.41 pct W/W to close at 200.69. A week ago the gain was +2.32 (+1.17 pct W/W), and I said “Wow!” Are people that happy Prime Minister Tony Blair is taking his act to the Middle East?

Btw, I liked his portrayal (and that of his wife) in the Oscar winning movie The Queen.

The $XBP 50-Day MA is 198.71, and the 200-Day MA is 194.80, so the current price (200.69) is bullish.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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The Japanese Yen $XJY had an infrequent gain this week, going up +0.57 pct to close at 81.21.

The Yen 50-Day MA is 82.44, and the 200-Day MA is 83.93, so the current price (81.21) is still quite bearish.

Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar $CDW had another gain this week, going up +0.72 pct W/W to close at 94.21.

The $CDW 50-Day MA is 92.12, and the 200-Day MA is 88.22, so the current price (94.21) is a “hot” one.

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International Equity Markets Review

The equity markets in India and China were up a little, and down a little, respectively. But it was not a week of major change.

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Paciic stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

The Nikkei Dow may be at a double top (see 18215 in Feb-07 as well) from where it has peaked, and now about to start the winding road south. This week, the Nikkei dropped from 18188 to 18138. Not much. Early in the week was weak, and the second half was strong.

The Mar-07 16600 support level is the critical one to watch this summer.

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Surprise is what the composite index ought to be called! I wrote that a week ago. This week it was up and down like a see-saw.

A week ago I wrote, “Maybe we should be seeking answers from the more stable Hong Kong market instead? The Hang Seng set a new record high on Friday at 22052 (21999.9 close). Does anybody recall the April 2003 low of 8331.9? I think there is support at 21000, 18700 and ultimately 17300 (the May-06 global scare). But that would be -21.4 pct lower than today! ...At the least, profits should be protected.”

This week the Hang Seng closed at 21772.

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

A week ago I wrote, “The Indian economy is flourishing. The major IPO’s are being rolled out. At a close Friday of 14467, the Bombay 30 Sensex index is not far off the intra-day record 14723.9 (week of Feb 5-07). But the index has been struggling for five weeks to challenge that Feb high. “

This week, the BSE 30 closed at 14650. The intra-day high on Friday was 14663.25. Closer.

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Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

The Footsie recovered a bit this week, closing at 6607.9.

A week ago I wrote, “The 6567.4 Friday close seems to be supported technically in the 6400-6500 April and June levels. However, the real underpinning of the FTSE appears to be the 6000 level of March-07.”

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Like the Toronto Exchange index, there was a strong Wed-Fri component to the Sao Paulo Bovespa.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	43.65	0.61	1.42%	2.90%	4.93%	0.81%	-3.73%	10.06%	-4.90%	-8.53%
EWU	25.54	0.12	0.47%	1.27%	-0.20%	-0.27%	8.45%	5.98%	9.10%	22.38%
IEV	116.98	0.74	0.64%	1.07%	-0.36%	-1.24%	10.78%	8.34%	11.44%	29.49%
EWJ	14.55	0.18	1.25%	1.04%	-0.61%	-0.89%	2.46%	-0.82%	2.39%	7.54%
QQQQ	47.60	0.08	0.17%	0.66%	-0.27%	0.34%	10.08%	9.25%	10.29%	22.18%
EWZ	61.31	0.35	0.57%	0.44%	-2.15%	0.18%	31.28%	24.31%	30.86%	58.83%
EWC	29.86	0.11	0.37%	0.10%	-2.35%	-1.97%	20.89%	13.88%	17.93%	26.79%
FXI	128.80	-0.72	-0.56%	0.08%	4.95%	12.47%	10.65%	23.56%	15.57%	66.84%
SPY	150.43	0.05	0.03%	-0.08%	-1.72%	-2.37%	6.41%	5.96%	6.22%	18.20%
TRF	66.86	0.21	0.32%	-0.33%	-3.37%	0.62%	-24.49%	-5.54%	-23.41%	-2.11%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan’s EWJ (which is a USD-denominated NYSE-traded ETF) gained +1.04 pct W/W to close at 14.55. The big move happened Friday (+1.25 pct!) That means NY is forecasting a huge up move in the Nikkei Dow on Monday.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

The EWU (UK market ETF trading in the US in USD) gained +1.27pct W/W to close at 25.54.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

The Canadian ETF that trades in the US as EWC (priced in USD) gained +0.10 pct on the week, to close at 29.86. That’s three cents to the good. The TSX index however moved down from 13986.0 to 13906.6. The difference was in the Loonie, which gained +0.72 pct.

Traders who buy stocks in foreign markets must always be conscious of the forex trends and cycles.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA gained +0.37pct, the S&P 500 gained +0.05 pct, and the NASDAQ Composite gained +0.55 pct on the week. The Russell 2000 small cap index was off (again, but not so bad) -0.13 pct.

DJIA (interactive) chart

A dozen NYSE DJIA stocks to watch.

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

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A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
T	41.50	0.76	1.87%	6.82%	3.03%	2.39%	18.74%	5.95%	16.08%	49.82%
GM	37.80	-0.35	-0.92%	6.60%	9.06%	23.93%	28.35%	22.37%	23.05%	37.76%
MO	70.14	0.22	0.31%	2.84%	-0.75%	-2.34%	8.04%	7.25%	8.90%	26.49%
MRK	49.80	-0.68	-1.35%	2.57%	-1.83%	-4.49%	13.13%	13.31%	14.22%	38.76%
XOM	83.88	0.28	0.33%	1.65%	-2.40%	-0.40%	13.18%	10.02%	9.46%	34.49%
JNJ	61.62	0.12	0.20%	1.47%	-1.83%	-2.82%	-7.20%	2.12%	-6.66%	2.89%
KO	52.31	-0.32	-0.61%	1.34%	1.42%	-0.93%	7.68%	8.73%	8.41%	21.48%
AA	40.53	1.23	3.13%	1.32%	-2.57%	-2.24%	38.19%	20.34%	35.05%	27.05%
HON	56.28	-0.10	-0.18%	1.08%	-4.40%	-4.29%	24.79%	22.51%	24.40%	40.84%
IBM	105.25	-0.70	-0.66%	0.78%	0.15%	-1.21%	8.20%	11.29%	8.34%	35.65%
PFE	25.57	-0.06	-0.23%	0.75%	-3.40%	-7.62%	-2.74%	0.63%	-1.27%	10.03%
MCD	50.76	-0.09	-0.18%	0.67%	-2.70%	-0.37%	15.71%	13.13%	14.50%	51.25%
WMT	48.11	-0.10	-0.21%	0.59%	-2.49%	-2.75%	1.18%	2.98%	4.18%	-1.23%
MMM	86.79	-0.06	-0.07%	0.42%	-1.00%	-1.85%	10.90%	14.06%	11.37%	6.95%
PG	61.19	-0.17	-0.28%	0.26%	-2.21%	-3.61%	-5.19%	-3.27%	-4.79%	7.37%
BA	96.16	1.00	1.05%	0.25%	-2.03%	-3.68%	7.84%	7.13%	8.24%	15.86%
INTC	23.74	-0.18	-0.75%	0.17%	-2.06%	6.17%	16.66%	24.36%	17.23%	22.88%
GE	38.28	0.16	0.42%	0.10%	0.42%	2.22%	0.82%	7.68%	2.88%	15.06%
DIS	34.14	0.29	0.86%	0.00%	-0.76%	-3.12%	-0.18%	-0.73%	-0.38%	14.26%
HD	39.35	-0.17	-0.43%	-0.03%	3.69%	0.36%	-4.19%	6.87%	-2.02%	7.93%
MSFT	29.47	-0.36	-1.21%	-0.07%	-3.35%	-3.66%	-1.31%	6.20%	-1.31%	25.56%
JPM	48.45	-0.51	-1.04%	-0.55%	-4.17%	-6.65%	0.79%	-0.10%	0.31%	13.52%
UTX	70.93	-0.16	-0.23%	-0.63%	-1.50%	0.21%	12.93%	9.14%	13.45%	12.07%
AXP	61.18	-0.04	-0.07%	-0.99%	-4.06%	-5.98%	1.36%	8.36%	0.84%	13.53%
VZ	41.17	0.10	0.24%	-1.10%	-4.23%	-4.28%	8.86%	9.58%	10.55%	23.63%
HPQ	44.62	0.01	0.02%	-1.24%	-2.38%	-2.60%	7.21%	11.55%	8.33%	39.31%
AIG	70.03	-0.42	-0.60%	-1.71%	-3.46%	-3.61%	-2.94%	4.21%	-2.27%	18.15%
C	51.29	-0.52	-1.00%	-2.14%	-4.98%	-5.91%	-7.17%	-0.21%	-7.92%	4.97%
DD	50.84	-0.09	-0.18%	-2.79%	-1.22%	-4.26%	3.67%	2.96%	4.37%	22.42%
CAT	78.30	-0.79	-1.00%	-3.21%	-3.46%	0.20%	28.02%	18.30%	27.67%	5.24%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

The reports from Value Line this week are on the two big telephone companies of America, AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ).

(T: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]

(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Chart of T:

My perspective is that T has been a high-risk buy this week after it became obvious that the Fed would not raise rates. So the high dividend of AT&T can better compete against bond yields.

But with a Monthly RSI-7 at 85.1 and a Daily RSI-7 now up to 72.0, I wouldn’t stick around too long. Total Return is an important concept that includes share performance in addition to dividend yield. If you believe that (i) the Bond market is going to rally hard, and (ii) the M&A game in the Telco sector is going to continue for a while, then it makes sense to hold T and hope the trend continues. But time marches on. I really don’t see the Bond market rallying hard for long. Only after the Fed starts to cut rates do I see significant improvement.

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]

(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Chart of VZ:

My perspective is pretty much the same as for AT&T. There are many traders who bought into the Verizon is Better story, but clearly the share performance and (until quite recently) the dividend yield has favored T.

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Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report May. 4: next one is due Aug. 3)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 22: next one is due Sep. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May. 4: next one is due Aug. 3)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 15: next one is due Sep. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Apr. 6: next one is due Jul. 6)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 8: next one is due Sep. 7)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Apr. 6: next one is due Jul. 6)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 29: next one is due Sep. 28)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 11: next one is due Aug 10)

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Wrap up:

There are continuing changes to the websites. The TraderWizard.com site went ‘live’ this past week. Every week or two now you will see more.

I expect to start getting out the Research reports (conditionally) by the end of July. The Community will have to register a viable e-mail address to get them, plus a commitment not to re-publish them on the Web.

What I am expecting of course is that the Community will read them and start to discuss the important points on this website.

Btw, I had to delay my departure to Nassau by six days. Next Saturday, I shall combine the Saturday Report with the Week In Review, without much commentary, as I will have just an hour to do it before heading to the airport.

Then I intend to take a few days off before starting up the Daily Commentary and Discourse. Life is unfolding as it should. Things are good.

Happy Canada Day, and Happy Independence Day!

By now, you know that wherever we are in the world, we connect somehow. It’s a small Web.

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