Anyone have any info on (cara 100) GOL? I see that TAM had an air crash a week or so ago and the stock has taken a nosedive... Some of the stuff I have been reading suggests that maybe the airports and air safety commission of the country is in question. However, it doesn't seem like it should affect GOL this much (over 10% decrease since the crash).
Anyone have any thoughts about whether this is developing into a good entry point? I am thinking about nibbling around here, maybe hope for a dip to 26 or so

When the miners pull back, they really pull out all the stops... I don't think I'll ever get used to seeing 5% drops (i.e. PAAS, HL, MDG) oe even 4% drops in a day on no real news... cycles are cycles... what goes up too quickly must cool down, but the rate in PM stocks is nerve-racking.

KRY is getting destroyed... any news on that silly permit? none have crossed my wires.

KRY buzz thoughts ???

http://gold.seekingalpha.com/article/42268

Some reasons why one person at least feels that penny stock trading can be profitable and fun too.
Tuesday, July 24th, 2007

The Greatest Stock Market...
By James West

The TSX Venture Exchange is the greatest stock market on earth, in terms of appreciation and performance.

Since 2002, the TSX Venture has appreciated in value in excess of 218%, outperforming every other major stock exchange on earth by a factor ranging from two to ten.

Last year, the combined TSX Group, which includes the TSX Venture, TSX, and NEX exchanges, traded in excess of $1 trillion in transaction value.

TSX Venture listed companies were the beneficiaries of over CA$1 billion in the month of June, bringing the total amount raised for 2007 to almost $6 billion. That's a billion dollars every month.

One of the greatest realities about the TSX Venture Exchange is its incompatibility with the requirements of huge institutional brokerage firms, which regularly compete with their clientele to extract profit from the equities they recommend.

TSX Venture issuers typically have two things in common:

1. Low share issuance: Most of these companies are funded and organized as start-ups. They don't come out of the chute with two or three hundred million shares. This means that the big banks can't acquire a sufficiently large position to redistribute to their thousands of account holders, charging a commission on each transaction. In turn, this means that you, the individual investor, armed merely with an online discount brokerage account and a good advisory newsletter, can sidestep the marketing ballyhoo and misleading, grand, sweeping generalizations of the major brokerages, and trade for yourself. It's not only profitable (when done correctly), but it's a hell of a lot of fun.

2. Low share price: The massive public relations and "perception management" machine that is the mainstream media is controlled by its shareholders--the major investment banks and financial institutions. That's why there is so much negative publicity about "penny" stocks, and it is also why many major brokerage firms (Edward Jones, for example) prohibit their brokers from buying or selling any stock under $5 for their clients. They cite the "high risk" and "unsuitability" of these low-priced companies in their literature, and instead put their clients' money into blue chip corporations like Enron and Tyco.

The major brokerages work on commission structures. That means a percentage of each transaction. So if MEGAcorp wants to raise $200 million at $25 a share, and VENTUREcorp wants to raise $5 million at $0.50 a share, guess which company is a more suitable risk for the investment bank's clients?

It certainly won't be VENTUREcorp, whose total commission yield (assuming a 7% commission) is only $350,000. Why bother with VENTUREcorp when MEGAcorp's transaction will deliver (even assuming a reduced commission of 5%in view of the sheer size of the transaction) $10,000,000?

Plus, what about the commission when the shares are redistributed to client accounts?

There's far more to be made from the distribution of 8 million $25 dollar shares than there is from the distribution of 10 million shares at $0.50 a share.

So you can see why the major investment banks have a very strong incentive to find penny stocks "dangerous" and "high risk."

Let's face it--any investing is high risk.

As Mark Twain once said, the only sure-fire way to double your money is to take a $100 bill out of your pocket, fold it in half, and put it back.

Hulbert: from a contrarian viewpoint, not quite ready for the Big Drop

http://tinyurl.com/2khj2u

I wish to address stocon,

Regarding KRY, you supply a link to "Granting of permits for gold exploitation on south Venezuela is being assessed at leisure, because the economic benefit is lower than potential environmental damages."

Ånd you still have questions? I headed for the hills on this one at some point after I realized that, all respect to the gentleman, Gordon Thomson and crew are a bunch of *overly-optomistic-gents*, at best. At worst, I'd love to see these guys investigated for fraud, which is, what I believe their collective press releases MAY, not is, but MAY amount to.

This stock is a really big joke. Even if the permit were received, the import of your link is, so what? What big investor is going to trust VZ? how's nobody sound?

I love you guys, and I love Bill, and it pains me to say this, but anyone still in this thing deserves what they are getting, in the sense that, these markets don't reward blind allegiance and blatant risky stupidity. If this is too harsh, I apologize in advance. This is not an investment, it's a quagmire, and only my mother's repeated humiliation of me on this point got me off the KRY bandwagon (yes, I listen to my mum)

i realize how dumb I'll look if the permit comes, but i doubt it. i really doubt it

The sell off in the miners today is fugly.

Now Chris...it's just a peice of paper. It doesn't even have a mother, you can't hold it against the stock. They do what they do.

It was totally specualtive from the start.

I offed it on the lift it got last week at a small loss. Such is speculation.....

How is everyone doing? Crapola so far, eh?

No worries, sooner or later we'll get the gold plate special. I locked in some $$$ yesterday but there isn't much hiding from today.

shark_attack, at what point did you lose sight of the fact that KRY was speculative? I think you made a good choice getting away from this stock -- when you become emotional you lose objectivity.

KRY is teaching everyone who bought recently on expectations that the final permit was forthcoming that nothing is a sure bet. No doubt. But it's also an object lesson in how markets can trade purely on emotion.

All:
I'm watching a 7 day/5 min XAU chart...looks to be finding a bottom here... RSI 29 + and rising.

Don't know if it's temporary. Watching GDX.

Seems to me that the problem with PM stocks lately has been that when we get a bigger than usual drop in the market like yesterday, they track the market down. Then, when the PPT leaps into action and strengthens the dollar like today, they again go down. So, one either has the stomach for it, or one doesn't. Long KRY, and living on pepto. ;-)

M.-

Thx Shark and you may be right, but jeez if it was that easy and you just did everything you read then there would not be any marky. I love how these guys claim they sold when the virtual permit came out .

"Crystallex (KRY) May 21st $5.08. Closed June 15th $4.55. Change -10%.

When Crystallex announced their “virtual permit” on June 14th we closed our position." ????

They had left their customers in deep hole for quite awhile if I'm reading this right

Added to WGDFF at $2.80.

I'm still not trusting the XAU.

stocon, et al, re: KRY story: Please note the story's source: "anonymous." In my opinion, when someone hides behind "anonymous," there is something else afoot besides benign intentions for the good of the shareholders.

I don't disagree with either of you. But then again, there's speculative, and there's SPECULATIVE. We know which category this one's in. I was enjoying trading KRY too. But when that GRZ story came out it frankly undercut the whole raison d'etre for the premit

Clearly the speculative miners are "being repriced" today, (to use the common parlance) based on the slowdown effect of the bad earnings earlier this week (not amazon) combined with the housing debacle I've been telling everyone will get MUCH WORSE before better. It all adds up to no growth, which equals less inflationary pressure. Remember folks, gold stocks are stocks first, and gold second.

Finally, does anyone have any knowledge/interest in Seabridge Gold or GMO, General Idaho? Both have been awesome, and GMO may be buyable here.

I remember this guy asked us the day of the virtual permit if he should sell or hold, and if you remember, even in the glow of optimism that day, there was subtle disagreement on that point. I actually added to a position, but I didn't feel right, and I even mentioned after a few days' slippage that I might have "drunk the koolaid", which I had. I suggested to the guy that whether he sold or held then depended on him, his outlook, his goals etc. That was indeed the right answer. By the way I got my pro sis out of a huge Hecla position at 9.05 Not bad, huh?

Chris

writersblock

I am wondering if the the fed may raise rates and is finally throwing the financials and the bath water out the window to support the dollar. Higher rates is bad for everyone including PMs, but we may be beginning to pay the piper.

Good one Chris!

Imagine my surprise (and pure luck) when I sold dear old Mom's EGLE at 25.80 and reloaded at 23.40 and woke up to today's 17.50% jump. I offed it then and there and it's down 7%. Again, luck. And my back feels fine!

Since the rest of my port is getting it's butt kicked today....

writersblock

anonymous is taking his info from these guys
I remember the Koolaid line definitely quoteable you didn't get that from writersblock?

http://gold.seekingalpha.com/article/42005

XAU is rebounding but GDX lags it...does anyone have a better US traded index or am I overlooking an opportunity to play the lag?

stocon, look at the story again. "Those guys," i.e., seeking alpha, are reporting "anonymous'" claim, not the other way around, an action that gave me pause with regards to seeking alpha. Always two sides to anything, and I'm glad they're reporting it, but to feature "anonymous" like that is making them look not much better than a Yahoo board, in my opinion.

I wouldn't be too concerned about the pullback in the miners as yet - unless your timeframe is quite short and you're much better at quick in and outs than I am. Longer term the charts look fine and the pain of the last couple of days is just a small blip compared to the run-up they've had the last few weeks/months.

Looks like some profit taking (can't blame people after the run-up they've had), but agree with Bill that there is still a lot more upside here.

KRY:
Just added more at 3.78
(I don't mind getting what I deserve.)

Until Bill changes his opinion on the stock or a decision on the permit comes, or a 10% gain I am ready to hold.

Chas -

Brazil has had a crisis in aviation, ever since the mid-air collision of a GOL airliner with a private jet last Sept. Delays and flight cancellations galore with strikes by air traffic controllers who claim their equipment is out-dated and pay too low.

I believe the spillover from the TAM crash into GOL stock is related to fears that Brazilians will simply cut out most voluntary travel until order is restored, and hassles removed. Also, an international pilots group recently stated they did not feel safe flying into Brazil under today's conditions. Specifically, Congonhas AP in Sao Paulo, where the TAM crash occured, is the country's busiest airport. The runway is too short. The airport is surrounded by heavily urbanized neighborhoods. Any safety cutbacks at Congonhas directly affect TAM's and GOL's traffic, and therefore revenues.

Another bit of background is that air traffic control has always been handled by the Air Force in Brazil. A huge radar system centered in the Amazon (and oriented largely towards drug interdiction and national security, and built incidentally by Raytheon) has mal-functioned, and caused airport delays across the country. Lula's government has been known for management incompetence, which has further angered the public in this case.

STILL, at the end of the day, these problems will be fixed. Brazil has great strengths in IT, management and technology. (Don't forget Embraer is the 4th largest aviation manufacturer in the world, supplying excellent commmuter jets to many airlines globally.)

Another factor is that Brazil is an immense country, larger than the continental US, with still poor roads. So, aviation is vital to the country's functioning. I believe TAM and GOL will be HUGE growth stocks over the next 25 years.

Is this the proper entry point? Beware of falling knives. And wait till they base, and turn back up, viewing - as Bill says - RSI7's, MACD, etc. In this case you might also follow headlines looking for changes in the running of airport control in Brazil. This will reassure the flying public, and probably preceed any major gains in TAM and GOL stock.

Money manager Jordan sees big brokerage stocks as a timely trade.

http://tinyurl.com/3yajn2

Interesting in hearing other opinions on big brokerage stocks.

Anyone look at weekly xau chart vs .spx, with rsi indicator for xau? When I worried that last week was a blow off (up) my focus was too narrow. I just looked at historical data of gld and may have mistakenly alleviated my anxiety. As a group on the whole, I'm surprised that there's not more kicking of the big picture tires, instead of the specs. Perhaps we rely too much on Bill. Personally, in the camp of bb's post. I dodged the bear trap prior. Big sigh wondering if I will regret my strategy now.

Jasper,
I can tell you that some of the fund managers (I get a market letter from a well known manager) are telling their readers to get into gold and the large miners based on the long base. I think that's sufficiently vague enough that I'm not spilling any beans.

I received my letter last night after market close and I must admit it added some confidence in light of the selling.

Now I see XAU is bouncing back a bit.

Jogyp,

I'm fairly sure one of those three things will eventually happen. And I do hope you get the permit today.

Chas -

Re GOL, BBC reports that brazil's defense minister (who supervises civilian air traffic) has been fired. That's a first step in restoring public confidence, and possibly a reason why GOL and TAM have bounced backa bit today ...

Craig,
The story of good volume on the senior miners last week is indeed an indication of mutual fund participation. Technically,though, the move up is likely to snap (14-30%) the miners down. A dispassionate trader would mock anyone holding,as in "how predictable." Bill's understanding of the forces at work trumped point and figure predictions, but he has warned about profit taking. If we hold last week's open by Friday's close...3% lower from here...I will breathe easier.

Hey Bill

I actually have changed my theories on Penny stocks and I would totally suggest staying away from penny stocks in general: UNLESS there is real value being created in a particular company. Real value needs to be distinguished from potental value. Most penny stocks say they have a product/service with potental value (that is how they get you to invest in them) but unless they are creating real value fund managers will never be interested in investing in them; and 90% Plus of all investments are being handled by a fund of some sort or another.
This is the difference in todays Bull market verses previous bull markets. After the tech collapse of 2000, investors got slaughtered and became cynical of the markets: but over time they saw that many mutual funds, managed the tech slaughter fine; and after losing 90% of their portfolio to MM's (Market Makers) and the like, that shorted tech stocks to nothing in many cases, the average investor stopped investing on their own.

Given these factors: I, for the most part, have turned my focus on looking for Blue Chips that are growing their Profits. Now that does not mean I don't invest in Pennies, but just that I am very cautious when investing in Penny stocks.

I recently bought options on IOM (Iomega) on the NYSE and feel that it is a very good investment at this point and with earnings due out soon I am expecting this stock move higher and to double within 6 monthes.

A couple of Penny stocks I like are: NPLA on the NAZDAQ; PNN (Pennine Petroleum)on the Toronto Venture Exchange (which I think will have a 100-300 Percent move in the next 8 weeks); and ISE on the Toronto Stock Exchange; this last one has a 16 cent book value and is growing earnings which I think will be about 2 cents a year this year (its a 10 Cent stock that can be bought for 12 cents today and their is a big block at 15 that I believe will look like a steal in 6 months from now) as well the CEO owns 76% of the outstanding float.

While I use to just look at charts to view insider buying trends: I now look deeper into a companies business to confirm the trend I am seeing, to ensure it appears solidly consistant with what I am seeing; before I make a Buy or sell on a stock.

As for my trading stratagies: seeing that fund managers make the majority of stock trades, my charting techniques no longer have the success that they once had; that does not render them useless, just far less reliable then previously was the case.

If anyone has charting software that enables you to chart Earnings Per Share, and/or to chart growth on a quarter over quarter bases; please post it on this form, or message me with it: petsaw1@yahoo.ca, it would be very much appreciated. Currently I use Vector Vest software for this service. I would be interested in knowing of any comparable services to compare apples with apples.

If you decide to take Vector Vest up on their 5 week $10.00 trial offer please mention me as your referal as it will save me $59.95 as I would recieve a free month service. P.S. Once you sign up for your 5 week trial offer you will recieve a book written by BART DILIDDO which is a must read for any serious investor Dr. Diliddo is also the founder of Vector Vest and is an extremely smart man, with some very wise investment advice. The book alone is well worth your ten dollar investment, even if you do not continue to use vector Vest after your trial subscription.

Referal: Peter Sawrie
www.vectorvest.com
1-888-658-7638

Jock,

Thanks for the response re:GOL. Guess I should stop bottom fishing and wait till the RSI goes above 30, but it's oh so tempting right here...

fwiw, this issue is being discussed at the board where i have a subscription service. A better TA person than myself posts:

"look at the gaps on GDX 60 min and daily, there are gaps everywhere, they will eventually get filled, so far the 60 min HUI only retraced 38.2%, I am neither bullish nor bearish towards PMs, if the train is truly leaving, we have plenty of time catching it

ALOHA !!

Okay ... Here it is ... As I had said the USDX is being defended at its 35 year support level 80. DUH !!!! I still have seen no confirmation of a breakdown of that support. It is in the best interest of three of the largest economies on the planet to keep the USDX UP ... What three? The US, China and Japan ... Bank Of Japan is a notorious USDX manipulator and to a lesser degree(only because they are relatively new)so is China. Yet neither countries central banks can compete with the biggest manipulator and ring master the US FED !!! Who benefits from a USD crash except a bunch of gold bugs and dollar shorts? Who has the most physical and paper gold on hand to quash a gold rally? Who has a printing press to goose the markets?

That said ... the markets will eventually overpower the US FED like Bill says and if you look at a five year gold chart you can see they are losing the battle. To my mind that has not changed any ... US fundamentals are still weak! And yes the USDX has been at 80 before within the last five years and has been up in the high 90s too! Yet POG goes up ... That is the trend ... a bull trend!

KRY ... I never bought in because I used to live in Venezuela and my Father did major oil projects there with Chevron and always warned me about business in Venezuela. My philosophy is ... why add extra country risk if you don't have to, which is why I am not in any China or Russia stocks either. The geopolitics of this era just don't make me all that warm and fuzzy. If the USA ever has to confront China I am not sure I want to own any stocks based there. Attacking Iran would indirectly be confronting China and also Russia! Thats just how the World is aligned politically which would not favor US corporations or US allies. War is not good for business unless you are a defense contractor or in commodities. We are at War ... as our President has said many times!

PM Shares ... Look if you are familiar and comfortable with a PM company's fundamentals and their geologies then you stay pat and buy the dips. Not too long ago I was in the midst of a 40% one day selloff in Geologix-GIX and I was buying at the lows. The weak hands will sell becuase they have not done their due diligence and 9 times out 10 they bought the stock because someone else they perceive as more knowledgable recommended it. That's Warren Buffet's number one NO-NO! Don't buy a stock unless you know it and the business they're in. Just yesterday PMI GOLD-PMV sold off some 14% on volume around 300,000 yet UBS bought some 200,000 shares. I did not sell any ... In fact I have recently bought 200,000 shares in a Private Placement(PP).

If you have been in this market since 2001 you would have seen a lot worse than today! Try a POG down day of $30USD!

All intended to shake out the weak hands ... AND IT WORKS!

A/D line is deteriorating again and the TICK and TIKQ are weak. I think we're in for a bumpy afternoon.

JogyP

this guy too says they are bullet proof

http://tinyurl.com/2ng962

CHARTING EPS

Peter,
I so much agree with your conclusions re trading penny stocks. yes you can make money trading the "penny dreadfuls", but the money gained "disappears" just as fast. one big problem with tsx-v also is that you can forget the bid-ask prices you see quoted on your screen - you can almost NEVER get fills on those prices.

I also so agree with your conclusion to trade blue chips, and possibly using options to do it, (i think deep ITM long lived options are best value)- with some way to hedge your greater risk with options, & with stock too, for that matter,

THERE is a charting outfit that graphs eps.
http://www.bestchoicesoftware.com/
there is a demo download at their site.
but their software & data are so much more expensive than vector vest. I do not use either one - but i know they exist..............

g'luck

KRY babies --

Hugo doesn't follow our priorities, or timetable. Nor does Mr. Market.

KRY and GRZ have found LOTS of gold. Hugo needs to create employment. He wants credibility internationally. I'll be damned surprised if a non-US major doesn't take them out ...

Remember, only US companies turned down his new terms on oil development. The Europeans stayed in. He has compensated relatively fairly for the telco and electric co. he nationalized.

We have to be patient. No sense complaining or KRY-ing !

Five separate excellent articles on gold today at minyanville.com. All positive on gold except one that posits that gold will decline with all other assets in a correction.

Re: KRY; I am still holding at a profit waiting for the permit and resource recalculation. If they have indeed paid the bond then they should get the permit. God knows why it is taking so long.

This stock has been subject to intense manipulation. An anonymous poster begging you to sell might be seen as a buy signal. Why does this person want anonymity anyway?

"KRY babies?"

That's nice.

Anyway, here's a little bit of news. I wonder if they'll try to take the Ferrari. Personally, I think the guy should never be allowed to trade OPM again, ever. Let him mortgage the chateau and the fancy wheels and learn to manage risk responsibly, starting with his own cash.

Amaranth trader charged in natural gas price manipulation case

WASHINGTON: Collapsed hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC and its former chief energy trader were charged Wednesday with manipulating natural gas markets last year.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it filed a civil complaint in federal court against Amaranth and Brian Hunter. Amaranth collapsed and lost some $6 billion (€4.34 billion) last year after making bad bets on natural gas trades.

The government alleged that Amaranth and Hunter attempted to manipulate natural gas futures prices as the March and May contracts for last year were about to expire.

Spokespeople for both Hunter and Amaranth were not immediately available for comment.

Earlier this week, Hunter sought a restraining order against the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, arguing that the agency exceeded its power by trying to bring an enforcement action against him.

Hunter is starting a new hedge fund based in Alberta, Canada called Solengo Capital Advisors and said government action will "irreversibly damage both (Hunter's) personal reputation and the viability of Solengo, such that Solengo will cease to exist."

If anyone is interested in earnings strangles, today I have bought LSI, AAPL and FFIV. I copied my model as of around 1:30PM today on the site below, also added the result of AMZN from yesterday. Model uses $1k investment as a reference.

http://tinyurl.com/22lxt4

AAPL and LSI are the best theoretical plays (smallest move required to break even). You may gain big, as with AMZN, but you may also lose 100% of the invested funds, so do your DD please, and the above compilation has no guarantees of accuracy. All these companies gave good returns last quarter. Not sure about AKAM yet.

Just for your curiosity! Thanks.

MikeNYC

Same old for the last 6.5 yrs. I've become numb and consider this stuff the norm.

sometimes it's neither discipline nor vibes that lead you to buy or sell..for lack of a better term, it's common sense..bought gold on bill's breakout call at XAU 143/44, but after a 6-7% move why not make at least partial sales? that said, for LT gold bugs, it's just another dip in the road up, and they've all been big potholes..

also agree with kaimu's sentiment on not getting into something until you think out how you're going to handle the downside

apology accepted, chris LOL

nibbled on some UNG at 38.25, will buy some dips for the net two .50 cent increments downward if it heads that way, but really just hoping to head up up up!
I still am hoping for no hurricanes though, my grandparents are old and in Florida!

easier said than done 2nd ave, after the first decision, there's the second decision, and if one keeps doing that, a lot more round trips that leave open opportunity for zigging and zagging. missing one big move may be the meat of the move en total. i'll wager those that trade less, to some degree, have better yr to yr averages...with the exception of those relatively few computer driven, tweaked as needed, algorithm programs. personally, have a diversified basket and the slippage was a barrier. having said that, it would have been reasonable to trade an extreme oscillator reading. something to learn from.

Lots of red in the PMs, but nice to see the moves off the lows. Sell-off in the agriculture area also, but it's a different "dance" than the PMs.

Low nat gas prices are beneficial to fertilizer stocks as nat gas makes up for the majority of their production expense. With that in mind (and realizing hurricane season is upon us), picked up some TRA again.

Jock, thanks for the Brazilian update.

Seamus, I also picked up TRA and POT.TO.

Doesn't KKR's and Chrylser's inability to sell their debt send a signal to the FED that interest rates are too low?

Hey, DROOD, don't make it bad ...

Just noticed that the former DROOY (S. Africa's 4th largest gold miner) has changed its symbol, and seeming done a 10/1 reverse split.

I traded it profitably in its previous incarnation. Anybody else out there following DROOD?

Bill, First off, I would like to thank you for sharing your knowledge and experience with us all. My passion for the markets grows every day and I have dedicated my life to it. I have been involved in the markets for 5 years now by way of researching and trading for a very small private equity fund owned by a friend. I am 28 and I live and Vancouver and have been actively searching for a positon at a trading firm or bank with no luck. I do not have a degree but am considering getting a bachelor of economics/commerce or a Derivatives Market Specialist designation through the CSC as I feel this will open some doors. I was wondering what your advice may be on this. My main focus has been on US and CDN equites and options and I feel I have learned more online than what I would have learned at any school but the firms I apply at don't see it that way. I am open to any opinions from anyone else on this wonderful forum and appreciate any thoughts or suggestions as well. Thanks

One last thing about KRY: isn't a traders axiom to sell hope and buy despair? Where once I saw some hope I now see a lot of dispair with this stock.

Hello Cap’n Bill and the Cara Community Posters from Whidbey island in north Puget Sound.
Thanks Bill for putting this up every day. As it was later this morning due to your connectivity issues and hopefully a more relaxed approach, I experienced a few moments of “ ohoh, what happens now? What if today is as bad as yesterday and I don’t get to read the posters reactions!” I did my morning readings and when I tried again….you were here. Thanks.
I do not think if I had not been reading and slowly absorbing street sense here for 18 mos. I would have had the guts to sell my WYE holding on the bad news yesterday morning. That left all the principle and me with some profit.
Thanks to all the posters…even those who seem exasperated by my/our wrong reasoning for buying or selling. I came to the web to learn how to control my portfolio. Through DD I found this website and by faithfully reading, following most of the links sometimes leaving me very far afield, my time here is now having an effect. I will admit I bought SBUX before it showed a true chart indication of bottom and turn around. That caused me to wait a little too long before adding on its latest dip. Better many small mistakes that a few big ones. More better is many small gains than a killing. I am in the green on KRY, WGDFF, GLD and even on SBUX and GFI. So thank all of you as you had a hand in edumacating me.
Now for the dumb question of the week. Can I purchase XAU or is it only an index of a group of stocks?
If that’s too basic to deserve a response, would some of you option players (no offense meant, just for lack of a better term) describe the decisions of pricing and spread. Also please include the most basic discussions of the mechanics of your trade…..whether you phone it in, online, what sites you reference. If I keep true to form I will study options a good long while before I even try. Thanks in advance.
Peace
Gray

KRY:
I still have a GTC order to buy 2K at 3.65. Maybe tomorrow. But I think that I will cancel the GTC ahead of the open in case it opens or goes lower on the open. Then buy. GTC on 3K WGDFF at 2.45. Own KRY and WGDFF. I feel comfortable with KRY. That is because the company is Canadian and not a US company. Hugo doesn't hate everyone and the added income and employment to his nation is of benefit.

won't get fooled again? i think we're on our way back over 14K...it just wasn't going to happen without a correction...

n2son-remember those pictures Bill used to post of the Canada goose? Now they're on your side of the Bay... http://tinyurl.com/3bbghw

To Kaimu (and) or Bill,

First off, I love to read your comments.
Regarding your latest post on junior mining(pmv.v), I have a few questions to ask if you don't mind.
- How do you get in on a private placement? As a private investor,
do you need to be a registered existing shareholder to apply? Are there minimum requirements on the investment in the financing?
-What is the advantage of taking part in a private placement? I know you get shares + warrants but I have often noticed that after a private placement the price of the stock trades down to the level of the financing and beyond, even with taking in account the warrants you get. Warrants let you postpone an investment and due to the time factor gives an opportunity to evaluate the company for the next year(s).So is the time factor the major advantage in taking part in a private placement?
- Do you get afterwards special treatment by the company, in questions being answered "off the record".All shareholders are created equal, but are they treated equal? If you can comment on that question, I understand.
- How do you handle "the games" some of the underwriters of the private placement play , such as shorting in advance of the financing. I know trading is Darwinian but never the less, their actions hurt shareholders who already own the stock. Lately I heard Jim Puplava on the same subject and he claims that kind of action is illegal.
Thanks for reading and looking forward to your answer.

An inquiring mind from "Old Europe".

Yep, 2nd_Ave, those geese are everywhere hereabouts. I believe a few of them dropped right on top of my head today ...

Or maybe it was the market? It's getting hard to tell the difference lately. ;)

chas:

Bought UNG today @$38.05. Will look to add to position after it hits ~$41 and pulls back.

"All shareholders are created equal, but are they treated equal? If you can comment on that question, I understand."

should read: can't understand

"All shareholders are created equal, but are they treated equal? If you can comment on that question, I understand."

should read: can't comment

I am getting a little ashamed.

2nd ave: i detect that you are gaining the advantage of emotional distance. Me, a little defensive these days.

Opened small UNG position, closed large IEF with decent profit, thinking of going short treasuries but need more guts.
As far as KRY goes my pure guess is that Chavez guys are quietly talking to potential bidders for KRY from VZ-neutral/friendly countries and that permit will be issued only if and when an aquisition deal is prearranged with someone they are comfortable with.
Still hold small long position.

jasper-emotional distance depends on your perspective...for someone who analyzes his holdings and moves as carefully as you, i am certain that every one of your positions will in time play out as planned, just not necessarily when you expect/wish...we all stumble, would be very surprised if you fall...

If true occam, (and it sounds right) that scenario somewhat impinges on the value of this permit, not that that's not already factored in.

I couldn't contain myself and bought some GSS, which I liked last week but didn't buy, today at $3.90

I'm probably early, but we'll see.

Bill, EXCELLENT call when you said gold would have to move up if the miners were going to rally, and that's all anyone needed to know to trade the miners this week.

And thanks to Kaimu too for last Friday calling the drop in gold this week.

photogray @ 6:26 pm re xau options/ spreads

http://www.optionsxpress.com/quote_option_chain.asp?SESSIONID=0&IsSubmited=true

you can check call options prices here.

suggest you jot down the quotes for a few spreads & follow them on paper. i think you may be a little disappointed to see the index move up (if & when it does) but the spread won't widen & give you a profit. i think you may be a little disappointed to see that you may have to wait for expiration for that, even though xau may continue to move up.

http://www.optionsxpress.com/quote_option_chain.asp?SESSIONID=0&IsSubmited=true

Gray,
$XAU is the Philly gold and silver miners index.
The US miner ETF is GDX.

You can find this in the WIR along with charts or links.

We used the breakout of the XAU to buy GDX (or the individual miners).

Good luck from the South Sound.

Fred,
Since you are accumulating, what are your thoughts on today's WHY news?

Mike
NYC

Mike,
The only news that I'm aware of today is the WHY purchase of a land claim for peanuts plus a percentage of future revenue if there is any. WHY has accumulated a number tracts of land recently paying comparable terms. It's just land until you drill it and find something.

Mike,
There are three things that I like about WHY. The first is that Bill likes it. The second is that the last private placement was $2 million at 65 cents. The third is that the stock price bounces around between 52 and 62 cents. It usually has a wide buy/ask gap (52/57) which you can catch with small trades. The daily volume is puny, as are my holdings of it.

Breadth continued to weaken yesterday (and stands below March low levels)even as the Indices were rallying on the backs of the energy spike. All of my indicators have rolled over and are flashing a big warning sign. They are taking this higher on fewer and fewer shares, a classic sign of a major top if it continues. New lows have exploded to the upside and are being matched tit for tat by new highs.