Cameco

Lots of bad press about this Cara 100 company and some particularly strong language from Canada's nuclear regulatory agency, saying they have lost faith in management.

http://tinyurl.com/2xfy26

I'm curious whether this sets up a buying opportunity or if it's more profound and could lead to this company being dropped from the Cara 100. I suspect the latter could be possible given that a trashing by the regulatory agency is more than a media bashing.

Moin from Germany,

i think the M&A activity will slow very soon.

At least we will see a much higher stock component leading to lower fire power down the road.

Here is an interesting number from Bloomberg

Sales of the securities -- used to pool bonds, loans and their derivatives into new debt -- dwindled to $3.7 billion in the U.S. this month from $42 billion in June, analysts at New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. said yesterday.

The market is ``virtually shut,'' the bank said in a July 13 report.

Buyout groups rely on CDOs for 60 percent of the loans to finance U.S. acquisitions, according to JPMorgan.

Morning all:

Happy that Bill is slacking off somewhat (rejuvenating) and I appreciate those of you taking up this "slack" with your discourse.

http://tinyurl.com/1w56

Article on the profound effect of the Sovereign Wealth Funds' growing reserves by Tony Allison of Financial Sense Online; he opines that this wealth (trillions and trillions....) will be applied to basic metals investments and, as a hedge against the dollar, gold.

Also, it appears that GS has begun reducing its open short positions in gold on TOCOM; net open contracts short have gone down from 25K to about 16K in the last 2 weeks.

Dollar carry trade anyone? :-)

I think Cameco is going to struggle over the next few months, but am a holder for now and buyer on weakness. The huge thing they have going for them is the increase in uranium prices. Based on next year's estimate's, their P/E drops to 14 and over the next few years, their long term contracts at uranium prices under $20 will be renegotiated at much higher prices, so earnings will grow further. Add to that the uplift they will get when Cigar Lake comes on and I think you see strong growth over the next few years.

On the supply /demand side, their is a lot of committed nuclear power plants on the books and, even though a lot of money is chasing nuclear projects, they are a lot harder to bring on than say a copper mine, so the supply side will be constrained as this growth occurs and helps hold up prices.

Two stories of interest today:

1) So. African miners reject wage increase offer. This should weigh on GFI, AU and HMY today. C'mon, folks, with gold at this price you can't afford a 10% pay increase?

2) CFC reported weaker-than-expected earnings. Selling off in pre-market.

Moin again,

Countrywide is tanking pre-market.....

Ugly numbers.... time for them to announce another debt fueled buyback to delay the plunge to new lows.......too bad that this time they wont get the financing.....

Schadenfreude!

Disclosure: KBW Mortgage Finance Index (including Countrywide)

Brokers are breaking dn, higher rates??

http://tinyurl.com/28dtmg

this could be an interesting day...but one to watch from the sidelines...

nat'l gas futures moving into the 5's...

Good Morning People!

The summer swoon, methinks it may be on. I love the word Schadenfreude! It's something all people do, but that the Germans have a word for. It is to "take pleasure in other people's misery." I never am happy when others are losing money. Only when they lose at golf...to me!

ccj - without fundamental reasons for being dropped from Cara 100, buy in point is when the downtrend line is broken to upside with stops in place. Simple.

US DOLLAR 7 HANDLE! Significant gut check time. Expect bounce but will 80 hold? If not, POG at $700 plus soon.

adding to UNG...

Can POG go up with increased cost of recovering gold in s. africa? Current increase labor offer by "the man" is 7.5%, while labor wants 15% plus I imagine things related to safety and benefits.

Eyes on the USD today, tomorrow, all summer. Agree with g034 as "gut check time" is here. If you have PM positions, you know from Bill the importance.

Among currencies, Japanese yen has been holding up the USD. It has been trading vs, USD in the 122 range, even reaching 123. Now at 120.5. Believe it may possibly be sub prime related move vs. USD.

BOJ meets in August and may raise rates a half point. Japanese Tankan business survey in August may influence. If yen strengthens, could move quickly as Japanese investors return to Japan and hedgies unwind. Key words are "may" and "if", but I like the potential. Do your own DD. Disclosure: Long FXY.

Re: CCJ FWIW, Schwab had a report early this morning advising analysts consensus annual earnings estimate increased from 1.91 to 1.98. No position.

g034 - As usual, your comment makes sense and is perfectly in line with Bill's guidance. I am disappointed by the all too frequent comments by posters who thank Bill for his guidance, and then post their "buys" that are based on "gut feel", etc.

Money is made and kept by making only systematic disciplined trades, and like everyone else, I have to keep reminding myself of that fact every day.
spot

Preservation of capital should be kept in especially keen focus today. In addition to the CFC implosion (which has been a long time coming, btw), what has caught my attention is the pullback in credit availability for share buybacks and LBO activity.

And while home builders are hitting new 52-week lows today, Ryland (RYL) and Centex (CTX) are next to report, followed shortly thereafter by Meritage (MTH) and Beazer (BZH). I've been suprised at how sharply all these stocks have fallen. That said, I was thinking the same about MTH and BZH when they were trading 25% higher.

I'm sure others have noted that HOV has now fallen over 20% since the bogus Buffet buyout rumor was floated and below its pre-rumor price.

Centex looks like the only one in the group with a lot more room to fall. We'll know after the close today if that will happen sooner rather than later.

P.S. FWIW, I'm short CTX and TOL.

Re: CCJ, Cameco looks to be in the muck for the next little while. Cigar Lake could be many years coming. Also, the Centerra situation isn't helping. Uranium prices are under fire and even Paladin (PDN.T) (the goto uranium guy if you don't like Cameco) is getting beaten up. I can't paddle upstream on this one. Bullish long-term.

Sorry for the serial posts this morning, but I just wanted to emphasize spot and g034's point about disciplined trading. I just closed a trade in TXN that I put on only a few days ago without checking whether or not it had reported earnings. I looked at the nice flat chart and thought it would make for a good calendar call spread.

Well, that was a mistake. Today the stock is down sharply on poor earnings. I closed the trade at a loss. The spread helped ease the pain, but I wasn't about to prolong my mistake on hope that the stock would recover.

number2son,
Fortunately, I don't hold any homebuilders. Unfortunately, I own some USG and it's deep underwater. Buffett liked it at a higher price. What do you think? The RSI is under 30.

ccj may find support along 200 dma which is roughly the levels of former (spring 2006) highs. If CNBC has negative stories on CCJ in the coming days, history points to a buying opportunity. We shall see how things play out, but the trendlines will tell me what the market thinks.

RE:
"Can POG go up with increased cost of recovering gold in s. africa? Current increase labor offer by "the man" is 7.5%, while labor wants 15% plus I imagine things related to safety and benefits.

Posted by: jasper at July 24, 2007 10:01 AM"

- POG will go up due to slowing production due to labor issues, if they occur. The relative price action of s. african miners (to others) will be weak due to increased costs to s. african mining companies that others don't have to bear. Also, if energy prices zoom here, mining costs will increase putting downward pressure on miner earnings if POG is flat - if that is the case, royalty copanies make the most sense...just something to think about. IMO, if I am understanding you correctly. Hope that helps.

LEND in free fall.

Fred, I don't follow USG but I would be very cautious about any company involved in the home building industry right now.

Last year, home builders hit a bottom around this time and rallied through the end of the year. I doubt the same will happen again this year as their is no real hope for a near term recovery.

Spot,
From what I can see this list is composed of all levels of experience, from professionals to beginners and everything in-between.

Many people post their ideas or thinking in order to get feedback from those who may know more or who might question why this person is thinking of taking some action.

Since I'm one of the beginners I find your comment a bit intimidating, but since I'm...uh, old, I'm sure enough of myself to say so.

I'm thinking it might be better to offer to help than to impede beginners from asking for help (directly or indirectly) by posting their thoughts.

If they already made a purchase and post it, maybe we could ask why so we either learn something or get to help the community.

I know that I get all kinds of ideas here by listening to others, but I do my own DD before I act. I sure appreciate the help and I like to help others if I can.

number2son
the homebuilders are close to a bottom. that means that they will probably go sideways for another 6 months and build a base from which they will rise up.
Its possible that we get 20% swings up and down initially, during this base building period.
However, the sector will be dead money for a nice period of time. The only trade possible, i think, will be to sell volatility.
Why bottom? The sector is broadly trading below book value. The book value has not stabilized yet, and that's why a rally is not imminent. If and when book value stabilizes, these stocks will begin to rise.
There's nothing to say that book value cannot deteriorate further. It can. That's why you cannot completely rule out another 10% or so decline.

Spot,
I am gulity of posting my gut feelings about stocks, but it is not a 'buy' call, just trying to get other's opinions on my thoughts.

Many times reponse to my postings by others helped me rethink my own trade decisions.

I get a lot of valuable ideas from Craig, 2nd_ave, jasper and others and I hope they don't get discouraged.

Spot, I have to disagree with your comment "Money is made and kept by making only systematic disciplined trades". I also thank Bill for introducing me to a new science that strengthens my trading kit. However, in my journey I have learned that most every achievement requires a mix of art, science and luck. I value the science of trading that Bill teaches and it helps me to question my prospective trading decisions. Still my trades are based on experience and art. It's lovely when everything fits nicely in little boxes but, sometimes I just have to fly without a net and I do just fine.

QQQQs closed this morning's gap, but the A/D line is still horribly underwater. I put my faith in the A/D line, but the rally from the lows sure has me wondering some times. I suspect we'll break Friday's lows before the close and stay there.

spot - I agree with your statement on disciplne.

"Gut check time" = emotions.

Dealing with emotions appropriately is learned through experience. Some highly experienced traders (see Bill's crystal ball) will "feel" like this is a good time for a certain action. IMO, that "feeling" comes because the trader has "seen this before" and intuitively recognizes it and takes action. For the most part though, I have found that trading against my emotions makes me more money. For example; when I am confident and greedily watching my well timed trade work for me, I know that it is getting close to the time to close out the position. Or when the price of a security falls to accumulation zone and I feel fearful of buying as I watch the price fall, it is probably time to buy. Waiting for the trendline break at those times as my "tell" keeps my emotions out of the trade. For example, in June when the POG dropped and many were calling for lower gold prices ($600 or lower), worry crept in but POG was around 200dma for support and RSI 7 was close to 30 - buy on downtrend line break to the upside - or at the very least, don't bail on the position. If anyone can learn from that, your trading will improve.

All red on the TSX, NYSE and Nasdaq. I'm afraid to pull the trigger on anything.

Alex Elder, one of my favorite trading gurus, says no trader is entitled to follow his/her intuition till he/she has traded profitably for a year using strict rules.

Because only then will you have an "educated" intuition ... .Makes sense, doesn't ...

All:
I don't want to turn this into a Spot bash...I want his help if he see's me doing something stupid! Same with g034!

I've done better amongst you guys *because* you keep me more disciplined.

I, for one, won't be a bit put off if you tell me you think I'm goofing up. It's been working great so far.

AA, I agree entirely with your view on the home builders.

For the record, I got burned badly last year when I thought these stocks wouldn't rally. I'm not expecting the same will happen again as there isn't a believable catalyst in the offing -- last year, it was conceivable the housing market might rebound in the Fall. And there were plenty of shills in the financial media ready to tell you so.

The Spring and Summer selling seasons, plus the mortgage industry blow up put things in an entirely different perspective. And all the hypsters have ran for the tall grass.

At best, these stocks will trade sideways.

Cognition or emotion?. Which one IS the general regardless of which one SHOULD be. For me, if I was an apprentice to the wizard, my imagination says that the wizard would constantly be talking to my emotions so that I can learn and implement the (cognitive) strategy.

Are you guys watching XAU?

Thoughts? Do we find the mean or?

xau weekly chart, almost every rsi over 70, like now, streaks down to 50 or lower. xau did come close to all time high close last week. Personally, been raising cash over last number of days but no pm's on sale block. At this point, feel/believe that I would have trouble picking re-entry. Perhaps I'm overstating belief that pog will move higher and that extremes on gold price have not yet been reached. So, I will just live with expectation that xau will streak down and bounce. A move up on the usd is what will kill chances of a bounce. Can/will the fed raise rates to do that? Will foreign banks raise rates? No, no...i think. What do others think about risk of deep correction of xau?

With respect to the home builders/ housing sector: Adjustable Rate Mortgage resets peak about January 08. This blends into the concept that the builders may bottom out in six months. It would not surprise me if resets peak as builder’s bottom.

Remember when Alan Greenspan said in February 2004 that Americans’ preference for long-term, fixed-rate mortgages means many are paying more than necessary for their houses and suggested consumers would benefit if lenders offered more alternatives.

Well, it looks like sub-prime borrowers are about to become victims of the law of unintended consequences. Thank you, Mr. Chairman Greenspan for your sage advice on ARMS.

Is BAC on the Cara global 100? I have it on my list, but I'm not sure my list is current. According the QCharts the daily, weekly, monthly RSI's are 20/20/28. So, it looks like accumulation zone potential, but the chart doesn't look so great.
Maybe g034's comments on trendline breaks are a good idea.

dlt

Okay, here's my take...
WGDFF is down but on low vol. and no real sellers.
I have a buy at 2.88 and it's @2.875 and no go yet.

SLW decent MACD and stoch and RSI is in 60's. In light of USD weakness I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt so far. It's not hurting THAT bad yet. Maybe buying a bit on further weakness.

XAU hasn't found itself yet.

Good correction though....

Jasper - Who knows? NOBODY. FT column yesterday maintained Benanke has lost confidence in his models, on the heels of bankers losing confidence in theirs! - All I can try to do is have a clear reading on where things are now, a sense of forces and trends at work, then take low-risk bets with stops in place!

That's how I regard Bill's concept of cycle trading for Cara100's. When RSI7 M/W/D come below 30, then the daily RSI recovers, probability is high that a proven leader will have bottomed in his cycle, and his stock price will do well over the next couple of years.

No guarantees, though. I've recently been stopped out of both WFMI and SBUX - with small losses !

BTW, Kudo's to our ultrashort friends!

Likely the only green on the screen...

In my opinion, it is very easy to become excited and overanxious when the PM's, especially gold, are on the rise. I remember when preparing a presentation on this issue for a class that I had quotelist open for about a month straight on my computer, quoting the gold price to my roommate every chance I could, laughing hysterically when it rose, and shrugging nonchalantly when it fell, listing ten reasons why it should not be happening...mesmerized by the green and red.
I've recently established many of the positions I have hoped for and took my eyes off the 'tape', limited my news/business intake to a couple 2 minute radio excerpts, checked my homepage (billcara.com) a little less, around 3 times a day, and focused, or at least tried to focus on more pressing issues. It has helped. But I am not a day-trader and I'm glad I learned that right away. I don't mind being underwater in positions I have faith in for the long run. At first it drove me crazy, but now I think patience is key for the mid-long term 'investor/gambler'.
Thank you all for your great insights.

The subprime problem has become a credit problem. Looks like the catalyst turning the market trend. Correction or more than that?

In the AG arena, sold SFD on my mental stop for a small profit.

Gold is actually up $2.20 today, but you wouldn't know it from the action of the gold stocks.

Most of the hit today is due to the overall market hit. Assuming we get a bounce in the morning, would expect the gold stocks to rebound even more so.

I having fairly massive computer problems, so I'm a little tied up, but I just wanted to pop in to make a suggestion. Anyone who is interested in homebuilders should just do what I have done - set up a Google News Alert or Comprehensive Alert for "foreclosures" and another one for "homebuilders."

I know: It's only anecdotal, "wall st ain't main st.," etc., etc. But from what I can see there is absolutely NO slowdown in the wave of bad news from this sector. A few days of these alerts constantly pouring into your mailbox, one after the other, from all over the country, and you'll quickly lose interest in catching these falling knives.

One last thought, and it's only my personal befuddlement and opinion, and I say it with all due respect: Why even bother looking at these things? As far as I can figure maybe it's just to try to call an absolute bottom, to catch the fast money on the initial pop back up or something. I just don't get it. Not just here, but on a lot of blogs and articles, it seems there is a desire to be the smartest guy in the room and get in at the absolute bottom and be 'the one who called the rally in homebuilders' etc. There's about ten million other items to trade, things that actually show signs of life, instead of showing just long, agonizing death throes. What's the fascination here?

I just don't think we are even close to finishing up the bloodbath in housing. I think we are just starting. Unless you want to just get shares now, throw them in the closet, forget about them, and not worry about how much further they fall and then in 3 or 4 years talk about how cheaply you got HOV 'back in '07,' why even bother?

Just thinking out loud. Maybe I'm wrong.

Oh yeah, it's worse: I'm just now starting to see articles regarding foreclosure increases here in NYC, the last bastion of Real Estate craziness. It's the outer boroughs, where at least some 'real people' remain. Manhattan is a whole different place which is buoyed by banking and everything that leaches off banking (raising hand here) and is also one of those places whose pricing is sort of partially set on an international scale. There are plenty of SWEET pads that sit empty for most of the year until someone flies in for a few days from Hong Kong, London, Sao Paolo, Mexico City or wherever.

But the fact that there are foreclosures finally just starting to happen here, and continuing strongly elsewhere, is not a good sign for this sector. Or maybe I'm missing something.

Mike
NYC

For those interested in earnings strangles, AMZN is today. I bought a P70-C75 strangle this AM, currently this is quite out of balance, will see what it ends up tomorrow. If you remember last quarter's earnings, AMZN OTM call holders were rewarded with over 100X their money. It is an interesting play but do your DD.

Glad I have held onto my SDS these past 4 weeks, the banks and brokers have been really weak, and no matter how much they try to contain the CDS, CDO, CMO stuff not everybody is going to play along, there will always be some that will bail out before the others do!
As far as overseas funds entering the equity markets in the U.S. and bolstering them, the majority of this money is smart money, they are not going to enter a market that is teetering.

XAU looks to be bottoming on the 5 min/intraday chart. Mid 30's RSI and stoch up, MACD at bottom, turning up.

GLD seems to be holding....

I'm nibbling at GDX here. Any detractors? Go for it!!!

My apologies to any who felt offended, or intimidated, by my earlier post. That was not my intent. My remarks my opinion that G034 offers a fine example of "tradesmanship" and community responsibility when he reminds us of Bill's guidance to both wait for a move into the "zone" AND waiting for an indication of trend change such as might be given by a cross of the RSI "zone" line in the direction of the desired trade (and yes, I do know that he has said more than just that).

G034, as I understand it, recommends waiting also for a trend line reversal before acting on a trade. I have used some variations on that theme, plus others, and have learned much to my chagrin that no system works if it isn't followed with discipline. Without a system, it's just luck in finding a market that is moving in the direction you want to go.

I believe I am correct in remembering that the originator of the famous "Turtle" system emphasized trading in the direction of the trend and trading with discipline both in and out. His aproach made lots of money for his adherents.

One last remark on a topic that hasn't been discussed a lot is that each trader must decide what time frame he/she wishes to trade. Waiting for a drop into the monthly RSI "zone" will drive a "day trader" crazy, and vice versa; so, one must be careful to judge what time frames the poster is coming from before getting too excited.

jmho
Spot

So ya know this is interesting, we are starting to see these guys show there hands. Markets down, $ down and Gold GEST CAPPED.

Right or Wrong: Bernanke is more worried about inflation than anything else and does not want to see $700 gold again

jasper-hope you took a little off yesterday or have a plan in place to protect your gains..

re trading on "gut feelings-" anyone who trades entirely on discipline has more control than i do...i've done well trading both ways (and don't necessarily see a contradiction in thanking bill for one insight while simultaneously using a "conflicting" style...trading is an art, right-if it becomes a science, let a programmer take over)...it can also be more "fun" trading on instinct, and can sometimes teach you a little about yourself and the markets...

in any case...it was "good" to finally see a sharp correction...let's see how we handle it...

Spot - the Turtle rules were freely published by one of the originals. Just Google Original Turtle Rules or something like that. I've got a copy at home. It's an interesting read.

Mike
NYC

btw, other than adding to UNG, did no trading today...lacking conviction in market direction, it just seemed prudent to leave the BMD/KRY position alone until i'm clear on what i want to do...at this point, my outlook has not changed on either position...

spot, I agree with you on the need for discipline.
Certianly feeling the pain of trading on gut feeling now! Yesterday I bought MER and Sold SDS. Ouch!
DUG is the only green for me today.

Example:
There was no way in hell that I knew what was coming today, but when I saw it start to turn I "felt" we were finally going to see the correction we all heard was coming. I took profits on everything except WGDFF which I tried to add to to no avail.
I watched the XAU and SLW charts and re-entered a small position in GDX at about a minute before close. I added to SLW at around 14 and we'll see if the XAU tells the SLW tale tomorrow.

Once I knew about Countrywide I shorted XLF. Since I didn't know how financials would really fare I didn't use the limited liquidity SKF. Too bad!

2nd, I added a smidgen to Mom's BMD at 3.41.

I sold her SBUX this AM at a tidy profit as well as EGLE and GFI before it got ugly.

Emotion? I don't think so but it could be. I was following my #1 rule. Don't lose $$$. And #2 is: Don't let a winning trade turn into a losing trade. Preserve capital.

If this market and trend were as strong as the noggins want us to believe, I would hold small losses no problem, but Bill's commentary the last few days has me feeling more cautious with an itchy sell finger. Especially since the last few weeks have been so good. I felt the need to lock it in. I may regret it all tomorrow.....but today I have my $$$.

2nd,
Raised almost 20% cash...half on trailing stop losses that did protect profits. After doing a little more chart reading today, in hindsight friday would have been a lovely day to just go all in cash considering the excellent gains. 10.6 %ytd at close. Gave up about 3 pts over last three trading days. Will xau find a floor soon?

Then there are the (serious) reports of George Soros always exiting a position if his back hurt. He had quite an intelligent back in his trading days !

Beat the market today. I was only down 2% (LOL). Down 5% over last 3 trading days. Trading volume has been very small in my stocks. Not divesting anything. I've been accumulating VAL and WHY. I think I'm the only person in North America doing so.

Fred -

If I may ask, what's the story on WHY? Google finance doesn't say much; doesn't even list a web page ..

Jock,
WHY is one of the penny dreadfuls which Bill brought to our attention for consideration when it was trading at 56 cents. I've now invested about 2% of my portfolio in it as "mad" money. Attached is the link to their website. whyresources.com

I'll try the link again. whyresources.com

WHY is West High Yield Resources. I am not recommending a buy.

All-

Sorry I have been absent. I do not have much time for the markets these days. I told Bill my visits here would be very sparse.

In late 2006 I designed my own "hedge fund". It's basically a portfolio of EXTREMELY non-correlated assets. It has a diversification metric of 77% and an autocorrelation coefficient that is negative. For those of you who follow such things you will recognize that this portfolio of 20 positions is highly diversified to say the least. It is ALL STOCK.

So far it has been performing like a charm and I intend to leave it alone. Even today I had a good result, though down.

I hope everyone caught the miners breakout above 144 (XAU). If you trade by g034s rules you did. And if you found the bellcow (my rules) during the recent decline you did even better. :)

I wish everone "good luck and good trading". I will check in again when I can.

New RSI7 (Short-term) data and miscellaneous junkola up at my site..."the land of the 300" on a good day...plus a few cheap shots (standard fare).

Best,

Ron

Jock, that's too funny about Soros, but may contain a germ of truth. I'm on the West Coast and a long time back I used to check the weather in New York as a possible factor to gauge the sentiment of traders during the day.

MarkM, glad to see you pop your head in today. I was thinking of you when I saw the QQQQs rally this morning with the A/D line so deeply underwater and non-confirming. My gut and my experience told me the rally was a fake, but my head kept saying "Don't fight the tape!"

jasper-fwiw, this from Todd Harrison's column today:

"Note how both gold and the gold shares are firm across the board despite the weak equity market thus far this morning. Whenever the gold shares diverge like this from the equity market, it's often the beginning of a fairly powerful multi-day move." Professor Lance Lewis on today's Buzz.

MikeNYC,

You said "I'm just now starting to see articles regarding foreclosure increases here in NYC, the last bastion of Real Estate craziness."
Let me say as a former Upper East Sider and someone who's been a frequent visitor to NYC since the early '70's, that it wasn't always this way. I remember gunshots on the Upper West side in the 70's. I saw garbage stacked in huge piles during the strike. I saw the graffitti everywhere, saw whores, pimps and drug dealers and addicts, not to mention street gangs. My grandmother paid 147 dollars a month stabilized in the late 70's for a one bedroom on west 75th and CPW. The city went broke, crime went nuts, and the city was a harsh place during the Koch and Dinkins years. Friends of mine bought apartments off Tomkins square park for back taxes in the early 90's. My ex and I paid 950 a month for a huge studio on E. 87th and East End in the late 90's. For that rent, it doesn't pay to buy.
Now what's happened is, the real estate gnomes have converted and sold off much rental stock, and that process is accelerating. They're selling those apartments at record prices to people who, by reason of technological progress, increasingly don't need to be in any particular place at all. That's one of the ironies of the recent housing boom, the fact that as it unfolded, the notion of location was becoming less and less important. I was on the roof at work watching the buildings burn and fall that terrible day, and I saw the crowds swarming north on Broadway, literally running for their lives.
For me at least, never was the same. And just as the ink dries on the latest 40 million dollar townhouse deal, just as Bloomberg's latest scheme to make New York less interesting kicks in, just as the laws of location fly completely out the window and the guy in Boston or in Bighamton or in Bangalore can compete with the New Yorker, just then, New York real estate prices will begin the long, slow decline that is their destiny, adjusted for inflation. And I don't need to tell you what a dirty bomb or a leak at Indian Point would do to the city. It would make 911 look like a warm-up drill.

Chris

congrats on the AMZN bnuy Si02. Looks like you will be sitting with a pretty profit in the AM.

SiO2-nice move...

Thx, still need to see what happens tomorrow because I did not rebalance in the afternoon. The calls on AMZN were handsomely rewarded for quite a long time last quarter so I will likely not be selling them right away.
I am following 4 "top picks" for tomorrow, will try to post sometime during the day. I followed about 100 companies last earnings season in a spreadsheet model.

Somebody mentioned Technology and I have a theory: Technology is going to move because of Vista... A new operating system means more of a need for memory, speed, etc. in order to run efficiently; thus a need for people/companies to upgrade their systems. And why stop there? Once you need a new system, why not upgrade your software? Makes sence to me. I think technology should have a good run for the next couple quarters.

Hello all,

All those long lines of first-day Apple iPhone buyers didn't immediately pay off as expected for the device's service provider, AT&T, but the company on Tuesday still reported better-than-expected earnings, aided by strong wireless growth.

According to StockCharts, the $Dollar ($USD) has dropped into the "zone" now for Monthly, Weekly, and Daily RSI's. Guess you all knew that because $USD has bounced overnight. Of course, when do we ever stop trying to accumulate dollars? -LOL
spot