Bill Cara: Cara’s Daily Commentary, Tues., July 3, 2007, 7:56 AM

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July 3, 2007

Cara’s Daily Commentary, Tues., July 3, 2007, 7:56 AM

Market Chat

Not even Crude Oil prices above $71 could stop the Dow from achieving a triple-digit gain yesterday. It goes to show what can happen when bond yields fall. Can you imagine what will happen if, as and when both bond yields and oil prices fall?

Well actually I can’t. That’s because Energy sector stocks, which play a major role in broad market moves, will start to fall. So, rather than having to guess, traders would simply like to know if 65-75 is the new price range for the Crude Oil. A flat $70/bbl would suffice as a confidence builder.

Also, if the Fed starts to drop rates, that would be seen as the recognition of economic problems, and a forthcoming slowing in corporate incomes, and further lowering of the USD, which would not be confidence inspiring.

Therefore, just a flat 5.0 pct yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note would also be confidence inspiring.

What the market needs is confidence. With it, prices will lift. Without it, sag.

Speaking of confidence and Administrations, I see that Exxon (XOM) is negotiating with Venezuela over compensation. They are simply asking of Hugo Chavez the same fairness that Scooter Libby has received from Pres. Bush. (LOL)

For confidence in this blog, the Cara community can look to the Trader Wizard who gave you Western Goldfields five short months ago, Jan. 30-07. Yesterday, WGDF lifted +4.5 pct to US$2.57. It was very strong. The shares did not trade in Canada (Canada Day).

Do you recall how I introduced Western Goldfields to you? I had just returned from a Robbie Burns Day lunch with Ray Threkeld, the CEO, and said I liked it a lot. Here is what I had to say.

The stock trades on the Toronto Exchange (WGI) ($2.35) and in the USOTC market (WGDF) (US$1.96). I would expect a full U.S. exchange listing soon.

Until I get a better feel for the company, I will set a 12-month Price Target (PT) of C$4.00 (US$3.50). Should gold prices move higher, I will not hesitate to set a higher PT. This one is worthy of looking into. I will follow it closely here in the blog.

That’s a gain of +31.1 pct in five months. Not bad, I’d say. Wait til the California, Arizona and Nevada stockbrokers get their heads around it! Moreover, an AMEX listing is just days away. The stock is going higher.

At least I didn’t give you Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). That would have been deflating.

I said I didn’t understand this less than dynamic duo called Govt Sponsored Agencies (GSA). Actually, I didn’t understand how they could stay at their cycle peaks, with all the silly talk on Wall Street they would be privatized because their assets were "undervalued". (LOL)

The truth behind this scam was that both Fannie and Freddie had been stuffed with about $10 billion in dubious mortgage paper, courtesy of Wall Street, and the latter wanted to hide their actions from Washington legislators for the longest time possible.

Well the fox is out of the ground cover now. The two stocks have been in free-fall as legislators have Wall Street cornered up a tree with nowhere to hide.

Yesterday, because of the drop in yields, FNM gained +2.0 pct, and FRE was up +1.5 pct. But Fannie started to stumble in mid-June and Freddie has been weak since late May. I feel there is more to come as and when public hearings are held in Washington to investigate the quality of their assets.

Freddie has been the gentleman here and taken the lead in the journey south. The lady appears to be next.

International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar

US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

The DJIA gained +1.0 pct on the day. The rally, however, started late in the afternoon on Friday, after a significant pull-back at 2:45pm, followed by a sling-shot final hour close to the 1H07. Yesterday opened strong and kept right on climbing, ending the session just two points off the high.

The Dow Utilities and the REITs, and obviously the US Treasury Bonds, were extremely strong, which means that interest yields were down and the Fed was pumping. Oil stocks, gold, goldminers, base metals and the metal miners were flying too. I wouldn’t be short this market.

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The NASDAQ Composite lifted +1.1 pct.

The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

This data is supplied every day by the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc.

Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 gainers. Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List gainers.

Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 losers. Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List losers.

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the previous session.

After I recently added Millicom Int’l Cellular (MICC) to the Cara 100 (on March 28-07 at $77.33), I was hoping it would pull back and give a good entry point, but it kept on climbing, and is now (after yesterday’s +5.2 pct move to $96.40) up about +24.7 pct (not bad for three months!)

NetEase.com made a terrific gain of +6.5 pct today after the Board decided to spend $120 million in the next year to buy back stock. For such a small company, that is quite a feat.

On the loser’s side, Hovnanian (HOV) is scraping the bottom. Yesterday, Smith Barney cut their 12-month Price Target from $38 to $17. The stock closed at $16.21.

The last two months has been a disaster for shareholders who stayed long. Remember I was saying get out at the top 24 months ago, and have been looking for an entry point down at these levels. Every day there is a spike down, it pays to write some puts, although it never looks good at the cycle bottom.

Yes, Citi yesterday threw in the towel on the House-builders. That means we are getting close to the bottom there.

Bear Stearns dropped their 12-month PT on Starbucks (SBUX) from 47 to 35. Baker & Co {RAGN} added SBUX to their Growth Recommended List, with a PT of 36. The stock closed at $26.05. We are getting close to a bottom there too.

Dell (DELL) hit a 52-week high today ($28.977).

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes in the previous session. This is a good list to watch anytime markets start trending in the extreme. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes. That btw is called Money Flow.

NTES, I already mentioned, has declared a large buy-back of shares. Today’s volume was +222 pct the average.

In Focus

Smith Barney says “Excelon (EXC) stock should trade up into potential Illinois settlement announcement. Downside limited." EXC, a utility service holding company, operating through its subsidiaries of Exelon Generation, Commonwealth Edison Company, and PECO Energy Company, was strong yesterday.

Costco (COST) was upgraded from Neutral to Buy by Goldman Sachs.

Other Recent Wall Street upgrades

Other Recent Wall Street downgrades

There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website is updated later in the morning.

The majority o the US House-Builders were downgraded today by Citigroup: HOV+TOL+RYL+PHM+LEN+KBH+DHI. That will help wash out the group, and help the long-term oriented traders pick off some good prices over the next several months.

Here is the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks

Here, from “Chris”, are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30:

RSI > 70 (12 of 18)

RSI < 30 (6)

Here, from “David” in upper New York State, are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for the previous session.

Global Equity Markets Review

Here’s the closing data of the Asia-Pacific equity markets..

All green arrows today!

Here’s the chart of the Japanese Nikkei 225..

The Nikkei Dow ended flat today, but almost set a cycle high near the open.

Here’s the chart of the Shanghai equity market..

Shanghai gained +63 points (+1.65 pct) today,

Here’s the chart of the Bombay India Sensex 30 index..

The Indian equity market (BSE 30) was up (again) +142 points (+1.0 pct). It has been a solid three days.

Here’s the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

Stocks are strong in Europe today (as of 7:39 am ET). You might say the traders liked what they saw yesterday in NY.

Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold at 7:39am ET today is 656.8. The big move up happened yesterday morning.

“I like what I see.”

Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.

At 7:41am ET this morning, the Spot silver (AG) was 12.60. The big gain was yesterday morning.

Yes, “I like what I see”. I continue to believe and say, “I think this (recent pull-back) (was) another buying opportunity.”

Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.

This morning at 7:43am ET, Spot platinum is up to 1280.

I continue to write, “I remain positive despite all the screaming around me.”

Here is the Recent Spot Platinum chart.

Palladium (at 7:44am ET) is at 365, whish is flat over yesterday.

I still think “We need to see a 372 floor before PD will lift”…. And “I continue to believe we will be looking at 380+ in the next week or two.”

Here is the Recent Spot Palladium chart.

Precious Metals Stocks Review

Here are the Daily and Weekly Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily and Weekly US Goldminers Index plus important PDF chart:

Did you see how that technical break-down in the Goldminers turned out to be a Bear Trap. Hahaha. I told you I didn’t believe that oh-so-timely pull-back! The market was deliberate in its move to shake out the weak hands. I continue to believe that once the 143-144 level for $XAU is taken out, the goldminer prices will rally hard over the Summer.

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Daily and Weekly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

ABX NEM GG GFI KGC AU HMY AUY BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

The South African goldminer labor issue may be ending. The miners have been offered a +6 pct wage hike. That ought to help Gold Fields (GFI).

(Cara 100) Teck-Cominco (TCK), which is a broad based miner, also known for gold, has today arranged to buy out Aur Resources.

All the miners and goldminers look ready to soar.

I think there is at least +25 pct gain left in Western Goldfields (WGDF, TSX:WGI) this summer.

Community Chat

I am working on developing an e-store for books, reports, conferences, travel and so forth. The technology is now in place. I need to put the business processes in place, and that will require writing introductions, legalese and all.

The e-store will actually be on the TraderWizard.com site, keeping the BillCara.com site free.

Today and tomorrow I have lots of running around to do, so I may be missing a lot of the anticipated action in markets. Tomorrow, I will have a proper photo taken, which is an upside, I think. (LOL)

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 3, 2007 07:56:08 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary

Discourse

Moin from Germany,

the guy from Citigroup who is covering the builders is one of the dumbest out there.

He was still bullish even after the builder slashed forecast after forecast almost on a monthly basis.

One of his arguments were last year that pe´s were still cheap (lol!) today there are no earnings left.

Then he switched to cheap because they are close to book value (lol!). With Billions of impairments and write downs alone in the first half of 2007.......

What a clown!

But maybe a good sign and a contrary indicator....

Disclosure: Short several builder

Posted by: jmf at July 3, 2007 8:18 AM [link]

And what did I do when prompted on WGDF?
I bought and bought.....
when it pulled back to $1.81, buy, buy, buy.

Stayed at 1.93, buy!
1.99? Buy on pull backs to 1.91-1.93!

Lately? On pull backs to 2.22-2.26.
I think those days are gone, BUT, I wouldn't fail to buy the pull backs on this one!

Thank You Bill!

Posted by: Craig at July 3, 2007 8:34 AM [link]

Message to anyone who invested in WGDF...You really owe Bill big time! This is the metaphorical equivalent of Bill loading his rifle, heading up into the mountains, shooting a deer, strapping it to the hood of his 1975 station wagon, driving to your house and dragging the meat to your doorstep. Seriously. Making money in stocks isn't supposed to be easy, and you should be grateful. I am waiting for AMEX listing so that I can get involved and hopefully, steal a few venison steaks from you!

Posted by: shark_attack at July 3, 2007 8:38 AM [link]

BTW, received a big glossy promo publication from Rob McEwan yesterday in the mail.

It appears he knows how to promote and hype and has good timing.

Posted by: Craig at July 3, 2007 8:40 AM [link]

C.Note-GFI pre-market ask 1.5% below yesterday's close...so you can now buy back what you sold pre-market yesterday (lol)...i really don't know what happens with this stock in extended hours trading, but it's good for a little pocket change..

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 3, 2007 8:53 AM [link]

While discussing WFMI a while ago someone mentioned a small food co.

Was it B&G foods? BGS? It got coverage and two upgrades this AM.

CAT was downgraded. This one is interesting....

Posted by: Craig at July 3, 2007 8:56 AM [link]

WGDF: Bill, thanks. My only LT holdings are now KRY/BMD/WGDF...the "bear trap" took me out of GDX both Friday (ST positions) and Monday (LT). Will have to think about repositioning now.

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 3, 2007 8:57 AM [link]

..actually the more painful 'loss' was getting out of uxg at 5.54 last week..another version of the bear trap..

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 3, 2007 9:00 AM [link]

Bill, you have my thanks, too, for WGDF. It is the best performer for me this year.

As for HOV, consider this:

"At the end of the first quarter, Hovnanian had stockholder equity of $1.86 billion and long-term debt of $2.67 billion. The amounts to a 1.4 debt-to-equity ratio, one of the highest in the industry."

Full article by Nicholas Yulico: http://tinyurl.com/2kg6bj

The article notes that Dan Oppenheim believes HOV's book value will drop another 20%.

It's also tempting to believe that now that Citi's perma-bull Steven Kim has now cut his ratings on this sector that this must the a good time to buy. I'll resist that temptation myself.

That said, I agree with Yulico that the class of this sector is MDC Holdings (MDC).

Posted by: number2son at July 3, 2007 9:30 AM [link]

I would like to tag along a bit on jmf's post.

UBS downgraded CAT this morning. Now, I happen to think that is wrong because I believe the durables number last week was a blip (another reason to get that notebook Leisa recommends).

But, that raises the question of what to think of analysts. Is there any place that tracks their recommendations and scores them. To some degree these rating changes are self fulfilling prophecies, but that is only in the short term. One of the few times I watched Cramer, he was berating some analyst or two that downgraded stocks that went up significantly after their downgrade.

The fact that some guy has an MBA and works for UBS doesn't necessarily make him any more accurate than the shoe shine boy. All the fancy numbers in the world are useless if the gut (or the premise)is wrong.

Any thoughts?

Rick

Posted by: RickC at July 3, 2007 9:32 AM [link]

got stopped out even this morning, it didn't work. Time to pop a beer and celebrate the 4th (yes, I know it's 10 am and it's only the 3rd)

Posted by: shark_attack at July 3, 2007 10:03 AM [link]

GRS/gammon is still selling with above average volume but hitting support that goes back to nov 06.
I find it hard to see that it's trading with the others post bad news priced in. Then again it could be a sleeper. Raised my position mildly. Ready to sell if it breaks support.

Posted by: jasper at July 3, 2007 10:04 AM [link]

Rick:

According to Bloomberg News: UBS analyst "Bleustein is the top-ranked Caterpillar analyst out of 14 surveyed on earnings accuracy, according to Starmine.com."

So...
1. He may be the best of a tainted lot; and
2. Starmine.com is one source of analyst evaluations.

Posted by: RobBoss at July 3, 2007 10:06 AM [link]

Moin Rick,

i usually only take notice when one of the top analyst with a good track record in the sector is taking action.

But in 99 percent it is better to ignore them....

After listening to dozens of awful conference calls ( especially from New Century, Countrywide, WCI, Novastar Financial, H&R Block, Indymac etc) and seeing no downgrades and very few challenging questions i´ve lost every respect for these guys.

Posted by: jmf at July 3, 2007 10:07 AM [link]

tck is selling on high volume....i guess no one likes an acquirer....

WGDF...what can I say, 31% gain but still has to catch up to uxg at 37%...ohh, that one too is a bill cara mention!

Posted by: jasper at July 3, 2007 10:18 AM [link]

A close blood relative of mine was a sell-side analyst at an HBB firm, and I hope no one considers me to be transgressing the norms of familial discourse but I gotta say, plainly, and in language the censors will approve of, sell-side analysts are so full of shale they have it coming out of their eyeballs, PLAIN AND SIMPLE BRO.

Posted by: shark_attack at July 3, 2007 10:20 AM [link]

leisa has a great story about buying TNH a year ago around 20, getting scared out, and now seeing it at 125...not saying it will apply to any of the small caps we are now holding...but i for one will need to think things thru a little more before selling...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 3, 2007 11:16 AM [link]

Happy 4th (and Canada Day on 1st) to everyone. I enjoy reading this board, although I'm just pretty much a lurker. I don't think I'm smart enough for much more that that! I only do straight up trading, no shorting, margin trading, options, etc...all over my head. But, I am learning a lot here. NT

Posted by: NT at July 3, 2007 12:55 PM [link]

THE FIGHT FOR COMPETITIVE CURRENCIES
I already mentioned this, and I really think that the competition for "cheap" currencies is going to be a real war. The French prime minister already said that the eurozone "should not be the only area in the world where the currency is not put at the service of growth".
Next week there will be a meeting of eurozone finance ministers. I think it will be the starting gun for the race. Well, gold will love this!

Posted by: Lelik at July 3, 2007 1:05 PM [link]

I too am basically a lurker. I faithfully read this blog daily but do not feel knowledgeable enough to post much. I am just learning about technical analysis and appreciate Bill and the others insights. Currently holding KRY, RBY, UXG, PMNHF, WGDF. Happy 1st and 4th to all!!! Hoping KRY gets permit soon :)

Posted by: jc173 at July 3, 2007 1:40 PM [link]

There be trouble in them thar hil....beaches! Wonder if Kudlow and the other faces will ignore this:

http://tinyurl.com/2y8ntb

As one of the Nation's most vibrant States, if it is slowing down then what does that tend to lead one to believe is going on in say the Rust Belt States?

As I have tilled the soil and tended livestock in my day, when Nature provides you with signals & signs, you pay attention and prepare. When the Monopoly Money funding all this M&A runs out, will the CNBC's of the world have us eat cake?

Posted by: redclaydawg at July 3, 2007 1:42 PM [link]

Can Kudlow ignore signs of slowdown in FL? Of COURSE he can!

As Paul Simon wrote in his (great) tune The Boxer, "a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest ... "

Posted by: Jock at July 3, 2007 4:12 PM [link]

Later today, the Kontera advertising code will be removed, and these pages will once again be clean in appearance. The concept was interesting, but in the end was of little appeal to me. Thank you for your patience.

Tomorrow I will have a new head shot taken by a photographer. It will, I hope, be an improvement.

In three months time, I shall have another one done. I hope to then be 30 pounds lighter.

As you know, the bridge between hope and reality is a tough one to cross.

Posted by: Bill Cara at July 3, 2007 5:17 PM [link]

Congrats on the WGDF, everyone. If only there were an equivalent on the US exchanges. The 54/rt on Scottrade kills a tiny guy like me and my account and trading level is too small for IB. If only I could get up to that level, I think the knowledge I've gained here and elsewhere would really pay off.

Although I guess with this one, even the smallest of trades, even a couple hundred shares would have covered the $54 nut pretty easily. Shoulda...

Well, E-Trade will get it down to 44/rt in July. Perhaps I move over there. Or perhaps I work collecting cans extra hard this weekend (just kidding.)

But when my CaraMicro100's blow up and I'm not along for the ride, I think I will...well, I'll be extra happy if anyone does well with these little, oily gems, is what I'll do!

Bill, when I used to look at such things, I think the word on the street was that Kontera didn't yield much revenue.

Perhaps a rotating banner or a pillar display ad would work better. And the revenue would be much more consistent.

Good luck on the 30 pounds. I should join you in a challenge. I think I need extra fitness for the extra-hard level of work I'm about to take on and energy I will need. My birthday is this month and it usually involves a huge fried chicken dinner at my folks house. So maybe after that I'll join you on the treadmill.

Regards all, and happy Independence, wherever you are,

Mike
NYC

Posted by: MikeNYC at July 3, 2007 6:06 PM [link]

Mike,
WGDF IS available on the pink sheets in the U.S. so you CAN buy it. WGDF is the U.S. symbol.

You should get in on it before it gets listed on the AMEX.

Happy holiday to everyone.

Posted by: Craig at July 3, 2007 6:23 PM [link]

Mike,

The Kontera was a test. I didn't have revenue goals at all. In any case, as soon as I do a system re-build the double blue lines will be history.

As for the weight challenge, I'll set up something -- a Cara Community Weight Watchers Club.

I hate to admit, but my weight is 233 (per the doctor, up 1 lb in exactly 12 months). In 2000 I got it down through 45-min per day heavy exercise to 185 (my college graduation weight) -- from about 230, at that point. But 185 was too much weight loss, and I didn't feel the best.

I need to be around 200-205, so that is my goal. I think I can do it in three months, with a heavy exercise program, plus the heat and humidity of Nassau in the Summer.

My blood sugar is (newly) borderline problematic, but my heart/pulse etc is excellent. In the mid-90's, while in the Bahamas for a few years, my weight was a constant 200. It's a physically more active lifestyle there.

Posted by: Bill Cara at July 3, 2007 6:47 PM [link]

KRY, WGDF.BB:
I have been trying for a few trading days to pick up more shares but it does not come to me. I have 2K of KRY and 3K of WGDF. I want another 2K of KRY and another 7K of WGDF. Craig said to load up at 2.25 but I was trying for 2.10. I will wait for a pullback to 2.44 at this point; at prior resistance. KRY at 4.01. LOL stk

Posted by: stktrader at July 3, 2007 7:03 PM [link]

Mike-agree with Craig..I'm only being charged the usual 8 bucks to trade WGDF with Fidelity..

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 3, 2007 7:26 PM [link]

Just watched an interesting news piece on the BBC about China's expanding mineral mining in Africa. It is booming, increasing 50% a year.

I went to the BBC website and found a write-up for anyone interested.

http://tinyurl.com/37vooh

Posted by: Seamus at July 3, 2007 7:29 PM [link]

Mark Hulbert out with a new opinion from Richard Russell on gold vs large-cap stocks: http://tinyurl.com/2o32qh

Excerpt:

"[Russell] is now recommending that investors allocate any new monies to stocks rather than to gold. This will come as something of a shock to gold's defenders, since Russell for several years now has been favoring gold over equities. But, on the basis of his technical analysis of gold and stocks' relative strength, Russell has changed his mind."

He's not recommending that anyone sell gold positions they have, but advocates putting new money into DIA (or something similar)...I'll have to think this one over...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 3, 2007 7:48 PM [link]

Some people have mused lately about the difficulty of trading OTC shares with the big name brokers like Scottrade/Etrade/etc for $50-60 a roundtrip.

Though Interactive Brokers (IB) does require a healthy minimum ($5000 USD I think someone mentioned), its pricing for trades are extremely cheaper at $1 for US stocks ($2 USD R/T) and $2 CAD for Canadian stocks ($4 CAD RT).

If you are paying $54 RT on a trade that is assumedly less than than this $5000 minimum, you have already committed to paying a commission of over 1%. On purchase of $2000 in equities, you would have committed to paying a commission of over 2.5%. How can anyone afford to be down that much on an initial investment?

Contrarily if I buy $2000 of equities in an IB account, the premium would be 1/10th of 1%. (at $2 RT). There is a $10/month minimum on an IB account, but if you do at least a few trades it is all put towards your commissions. Plus I think the prepared tax statements (1099, etc) they provide for free are worth most of that annual minimum anyways.

Just food for thought. I switched to IB 2 years ago and have had absolutely no complaints in my experience. (In full disclosure, I also own IBKR shares)

Posted by: BillySundance at July 3, 2007 7:57 PM [link]

I tried to repurchase KRY at the close but my $4.13 bid wasn't hit, one more penny would have done it, let history record, should Hugo's rubber stamp be wielded.
Now as I study the chart, I have to agree with the above comment about adding at 4. Until the 20 day is breached upsides and it holds, the risk is, well, more to the downside. Barring permit receipt on the Fourth (and for you all I hope it does happen then) I fully expect to wake up on thursday morning and to be able to buy this stock cheaper than today's close. And if not, maybe it will finally find some legs. Now whether my clicker-finger is still working by Thursday morning, right, well, we'll just have to see.

HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is still more or less the greatest country in the world, despite the best efforts of Washington politicians (Quebec girls notwithsanding...that accent is sooooooooo sexxxxxxy they are like a beautiful furry nation of their own).

Posted by: shark_attack at July 3, 2007 8:22 PM [link]

Thanks for the info Billy,
There really is no problem trading otc with Scottrade, it's all $7 in and out.

However, it is good to get info on IB and how they operate too. Sounds like the fees are relatively low. I don't know any that don't offer 1099's, I think that's the law. Is that what you mean?

Posted by: Craig at July 3, 2007 8:45 PM [link]

Craig -

Schwab sent the IRS a 1099 with different numbers than the 2006 gain/loss report they sent me, and Schwab still haven't sorted it out. If IB generates reports that agree with each other, that's significant.

Bill -

I'd expect the way to take off weight (beyond lowering calories in) is to add muscle, since muscle tissue consumes energy when it's working, AND when it's at rest. Since the largest muscles are the thighs, I'd expect biking hard and swimming with a kicboard would get best initial results.

All -

On Nightly Business Report I heard Fannie Mae's chief economist admit that mortgage defaults (and the sub-prime debt crisis) will peak over a year from now (after the coming adjustable-mortage resets). What candor! Arrest him!

There's no way "the decider" is going to commute THIS guy's sentence !

Posted by: Jock at July 3, 2007 9:15 PM [link]

I'm at Fidelity, fwiw, and have come to like their access to research reports and their trading platform...which has been much more reliable and user friendly over the years.

I'm starting to very selectively sample some their ipo's. One source that I value recommends a current one:MF Global
Ltd. I'll attempt to participate and request a few hundred shares.

Tommorrow I will ride my "comfort" bicycle early a.m.

Posted by: jasper at July 3, 2007 10:26 PM [link]

2nd_ave, Craig, thanks. I admit I was at work and hadn't logged in to verify before I whined. Scottrade does require a call-in for some OTC stocks, so I need to check on this one. If I'm good to go at the 7 or 9 dollar rate, I'm in.

BillySundance, you are completely correct and I'm getting over to IB as soon as possible. There's just too much going on in the Canadian arena to not be there, and at a decent price. And with the treading guidance here and things I'm learning on my own, it could really help me to get somewhere.

Yes, there is a minimum. But so what? At 10/months for IB, one Scottrade R/T "trade" covers 5.5 months of IB minimum! I would guess that everyone here can find that many opportunities in the Great White North, especially with Bill feeding us dollars in the form of situations like WGDF.

And based on the fact that I have heard almost NO ONE have anything but praise for IB, you probably made a smart move picking some up.

As far as getting in shape goes, I just don't like how sluggish and unhealthy I feel. I have planned a LOT of things to do in life RIGHT NOW, and I want to get closer to peak and not let myself down. Jock is right - lifting is a powerful way to get there. But I've decided.. You guys inspired me. Tomorrow I resume my currently suspended "walk every street in Manhattan" trek.

shark, we are on the same wavelength. That accent cuts both ways, though. I still remember one little Montreal sweetie making a joke about her name being the same as some player, "Valerie" She saw my blank look, gave me a raised eyebrow and said "Eh?! You don't follow ze 'ockey? What kind of man are you?" Ouch!!!

We made up later.

Independence, everyone!
(and a little social equity on top, please.)