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July 12, 2007
Cara’s Daily Commentary, Thursday, July 12, 2007, 8:26 AM
Market Chat
Yes, we live in interesting times. The confidence in the US currency has fallen to a serious low, but the equity market in the US was strong yesterday, testing session highs at the close.
Of course, I was not around to “enjoy” it. At that time I was in meetings along Cable Beach.
As for the US market, all three of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up about +0.5 pct on the day. There was strength across the board.
But for the US bond market there is a repricing of risk. The 2-year note dropped -3/32 to yield 4.899 pct and the 10-year note dropped -16/32, lifting the yield to +5.094 pct.
After the US Dept of Energy announced reductions in Crude inventories, the Crude Oil contracts dropped -0.34/bbl to 72.47. Gasoline and distillate inventories were up as well as oil refinery capacity.
Gold has sidetracked since mid-day Tuesday, despite the depreciating USD, finishing down -$2.30 yesterday, but looking better early this morning.
$USD depreciation continued as the Euro traded near all-time highs. In addition, the British Pound reached 26-year highs against the USD. Today, the US Commerce Dept reports on the trade imbalance. Consensus expectations have the US deficit growing to -$59.4 billion in May, an increase from April’s -$58.5 billion. The Treasury today issues the monthly federal-budget statement.
Also reporting today are Marriott International and Yum! Brands.
Yesterday’s market gainers were Steel, Railroads, Nonferrous Metals, Mobile Telecommunications, and Trucking. Consumer Finance, Gold Mining, Recreational Services, Oil Equipment & Services, and Automobiles lagged.
Top performing ETFs include Market Vectors ETF Tr (SLX: +2.11 pct) and Healthshares Inc (HHU: +2.01 pct).
There is clearly an undercurrent of concern over subprime debt. Edward, who has been trying to keep you informed in the (usually open) discourse section, reports: "Let me know if I can provide you with any insight from the LBO, high yield or stressed/special situation perspective. To say that the credit markets are jittery is an understatement. Bonds and second lien bank debt are off anywhere from 4-7 points depending on the name. Sentiment at partner meetings for global hedge funds and levered credit opportunities funds have gone from backslapping and high fiving to ridicule and disbelief. Disgorgement usually follows. (But) All of this is normal."
As the world turns, my time and focus is on other matters. Other than some communications issues, I am getting things done. All is well.
International Economics Review
US Economic Calendar for today and the week
Econoday Weekly International Report
International Equity Markets Review
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
There is a lot of technical support in the 12750-12800 area (May-June-07 trading). There is even more support down at about the 12050 level of March-07.
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Like equity markets around the globe last week, there was a cycle peak reached at the close on Friday at the Sao Paulo Bovespa.
Rather than attribute the ills of the capital markets to the US subprime debt problem, which admittedly is a crisis for the owners of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) as the quality of the underlying security may have been misrepresented to them, let’s just face up to the fact there is a money crisis.
Money, you see, is just a bookkeeping phenomenon that is materialized when somebody takes on a debt. So when financial people including bankers tell you ‘the world is awash in liquidity’ the liquidity is money and the money is debt.
At the wrap-up today, I will tell you a personal story about the money of this country, The Bahamas.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
The Nikkei Dow was weak, dropping -0.36 pct to close at 17,984, but well above technical support.
The Mar-07 16600 support level is the critical one to watch this summer. It seems to be getting far off, which means the higher we go, the more we need to use protective stops.
I set mental stops no worse than -8 pct from the cycle high, often -6 pct, and occasionally -3 pct if I am quite knowledgeable of the trading patterns. If violated, I would be out.
In the case of the Nikkei 225, I wouldn’t be around to see 16600 if that were to happen.
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
The Shanghai Composite was strong in today’s session.
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
The Sensex index was very strong in today’s session, closing near an all-time record high.
Europe>
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.
Like many markets, the Footsie had been very strong. There is technical support in the 6400-6500 April and June levels. However, the real underpinning of the FTSE appears to be the 6000 level of March-07.”
The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch
This data is supplied every day by the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc.
Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 gainers.
Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 losers.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the previous session.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes in the previous session. This is a good list to watch anytime markets start trending in the extreme. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes. That btw is called Money Flow.
Here is the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks
Here, from “Chris”, are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30:
Using data from “Chris” (in Indianapolis) – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which he takes from Worden (using Welles Wilder calculations), the Cara 100 Company stocks that are below 30 on the Daily RSI-7 are as follows:
Here, from “David” in upper New York State, are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for the previous session.
Bonds & Yields Review
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Dollar Review
Here is the chart of the end of the week trading.
I have been asking rhetorically, “When do we see a trade-weighted USD in the 70’s?” Soon, my friends.
Commodities Review
I have said here repeatedly that when the $CRB rises above 320, the Fed will try to step in – if they can. This is like sticking a finger in the dike. At some point, the levee will break.
Oil prices are headed higher because (as I have been saying) OPEC won’t accept USD made up from twenty wooden nickels. The lower the USD falls, the higher the oil price will rise, other factors being equal.
Here is the e-miNY Aug-07 Crude Oil chart.

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Gold, like oil, will move higher as confidence in the USD breaks down.
Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.
Community Chat
Yesterday I told you I was going to meet with my business associate Julian Francis who on Thursday was appointed Chairman of the BTC Bahamas, which is the country's telephone and telecommunication system. That is a part-time government appointment. Since telecommunications is the country’s biggest problem/opportunity right now, Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham picked the right man for the job.
If you use the search window on my home page to google “Julian Francis”, you will see that I have written about him before. For about nine of the past dozen years, Julian had another government appointment.
In my intro today, I said I had a story about the money of The Bahamas. All in the face of the paper money here you can read the words “These notes are legal tender under the Central Bank of the Bahamas Act 2000 for the payment of any amount”. Signed Julian W. Francis.
Yes, Julian was Governor of the Central Bank. On his watch, I believe this country never had a single financial crisis.
What is remarkable is that the fiscal system in place does not include an Income Tax Act. What that means is that the country’s need for revenue to pay for education, health and social services, roads, security and so forth, is raised in other ways, mostly customs duties, stamp taxes on the transfer of real property, direct charges for the use of airports and sea ports, and so forth.
The system here works. The country has an excellent credit rating, and the Bahamian Dollar is at par with the USD, and freely exchangeable here.
But, you know, the G-7 nations, which all impose a heavy income tax structure on their people, and who do not (except for Canada, at present) enjoy the benefits of a balanced budget (due of course to over-spending by government), resent this fiscal system of The Bahamas. Why? Because some of their people come here to take advantage of it, which is like saying that other countries, were illicit drugs are sourced, are responsible for the habits of their people.
But we all know that some of their corporations also go offshore to build manufacturing plants and to transfer jobs abroad where there are advantages to do so.
I could go on but the point is that the leaders of the G-7 nations (all political stripes) do not want to take responsibility for their own actions. They want to stand united in the making of policies that lead to deficits and also to the intervention into the lives of peoples in other sovereign nations. And that is wrong.
Moreover, the actions and deportment of the leaders in all facets of society, whether it be government, business, education, religion, whatever, serve as role models for their people. Presently, the leaders of the G-7 nations are failing their people, and they lack accountability and transparency. And that is wrong.
In closing, I want to address the reason I decided to come here to live and work on a permanent basis. It is the people. As in all society there are issues that need resolving, but the people are wonderful. In the sense of a true democracy, the people here debate everything, so I feel right at home. But there is business and investment opportunity here like say Florida and California fifty years ago.
Sitting around poolside, in my own space, thinking of these things, I thought about the essence of my life before I retired, and certainly, before I started to blog. Yes, I care a lot about people and social equity, but mostly I am a dream merchant, a deal maker, story teller. I make things happen. I am not a happy retiree.
So, I have come here to do deals, direct investments, engage in trading, and through that, and my interaction with the people and lifestyle here, to enjoy myself. That freedom I decided I would seek while still at an age I could do it.
I am going to dedicate this blog and my upcoming book to the pursuit of personal freedom, both for others and for myself. Yesterday, my first day in business meetings here, I laid the groundwork for establishing the vehicle to accomplish that goal. Actually, the legal structures are already in place by a responsible party with whom, in addition to Julian, I shall associate.
The structures are in place for me to quickly establish a Trader Wizard group of Funds for those individuals, families, organizations and associations who are able to meet a minimum investment of $100,000. Below that figure, I will be setting up an electronic advisory service for individual owners and managers of securities accounts with their local brokers. But in the case of the latter, I will remain only an advisor and will not be receiving or managing funds.
In terms of the Trader Wizard Funds, I plan to offer several:
• Cara 100 Large Cap and ETF
• Cara 100 Microcap
• Cara 100 Speculative
• Cara 100 Fixed Income
• Cara 100 Precious Metal Bullion
• Cara 100 Precious Metal Securities
• Bahamas Real Property Income Trust
• A non-listed (private) Guyana gold producing operation (as Chairman)
Except for the Bahamas Development Fund, in all cases I have already laid the groundwork. The systems are in place, and in the BillCara.com blog I will continue to write about the results and so forth, as well as capital markets and social equity.
The TraderWizard.com site will be offering an inexpensive publication service for each topic, each of which will be directly linked to a sub-fund. BillCara.com will remain completely free and also non-commercial unless I decide to run some information banners about my various business involvements.
This plan has taken probably 12 years of thinking and organizing in parts, so what is happening now is that I am pulling all the strings together. This is more fun than work.
Decompression therapy.
Another day in paradise.
It is amazing to me, however, that I received close to ten letters this morning pointing out that my discourse section has been missing for three days.
In a few days, I hope to start an editorial board from the readership, and these people will volunteer to oversee the appropriateness of the reader comments and discourse. I’ll get that going asap. I know some of you are suffering “withdrawal pains” as someone put it.
Onwards and upwards. It’s a favorite saying of mine. It is also the motto of The Bahamas.
Wherever we are in this world, the web and our shared interests will connect us.
And watching me create and publish this report are the tourists, locals and staff at the East Bay Starbucks in Nassau. Isn't it amazing what can be done in an hour?
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 12, 2007 08:26:48 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary
