Bill Cara: Cara’s Daily Commentary, Thurs., July 26, 2007, 9:00 AM

« Cara’s Daily Commentary, Wed., July 25, 2007, 10:05 AM | Main | Cara’s Daily Commentary, Fri., July 27, 2007, 12:20 AM »

July 26, 2007

Cara’s Daily Commentary, Thurs., July 26, 2007, 9:00 AM

Market Chat

Traders are nervous, and it is not about earnings as much as it is concern for the US credit market, and the likelihood that widespread failures will lead to a rise in interest rates reflective not of an expanding economy or inflation or speculation, but simply elevated risk of capital markets failure.

Few people in the industry want to talk about this.

Yesterday, on a wildly fluctuating trading day that saw the DJIA move up and down triple digits before closing the session +68 points higher, there were some surprises that indicate traders have funds and want to push prices higher. Amazon (AMZN) jumped +25 pct, for example.

Banks, insurance, and brokers finished down on decreases in mortgage applications; the Mortgage Bankers Association reported refinancing applications fell last week along with purchase applications and the average interest rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

Energy stocks outperformed the market as Crude Oil ($WTIC) added more than $2 on a significant drop in crude inventories; crude stockpiles fell 1.1 million barrels, distillates rose by 1.5 million barrels, and gasoline stock piles increased by 800,000 barrels for the week ended July 20.

US Treasury yields hit multi-year lows, as the Fed is trying desperately to stabilize the market. Treasury prices moved off intra-day highs after stocks recovered.

The $USD retained gains, forcing Comex gold down again, as warned here.

The 2Q profit of (Cara 100) Boeing (BA +$3.43) lifted to $1.05 billion on revenues of $17.03 billion. The stock set an intra-day high (the only one yesterday in the Cara 100 to do so) at $107.83.

Foreign markets closed mostly lower as European stocks were hurt by Volvo's falling 2Q profit report.

The equity market is presently, I feel, at a crossroads due to the sub-prime debt fiasco.

“Ed” sent the following letter this morning, which serves to outline the concern by a debt markets expert that the US financial system is under siege. Ed is not the only such expert who sends me an outline of concerns.

The debt markets never lie - particularly the stuff (poorly structured high yield and leverage loans) masquerating as equity.

Bottom line? We have a crisis in confidence driven by the absence of controls in subprime land and spreading quite decisively to the corporate cdo/clo land where bids have (surprise surprise) evaporated...

I am not able to get on the board but perhaps you could convey that the credit markets have snapped. There is no bid for the Chrysler second lien paper and little demand for KKR's Boot's Pharmacy deal...

The lack of confidence in market gatekeepers such as Moody's and S&P as well as knowledge that portfolios have yet to be "marked" has caused the contagion to spread despite what Paulson says...

Confidence is falling quickly. /ED

We’ll have to be careful not to chase equities here, and be quick to take profits on Sell Alerts. Also, we have to be watchful over Money Flow, which can be observed for the Cara 100 stocks in one of the Knobias tables below. Yesterday there was extreme rotation underway as you can easily see from this table.

The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

This data is supplied every day by the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc.

Here are the previous session Cara 100 gainers.

Here are previous session Cara 100 losers.

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the previous session.

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes in the previous session. Anytime markets start trending in the extreme, it pays to watch the change of price times volume (ie, Money Flow) of the individual stocks that are moving the market.

You are looking for the individual companies, the industries and the sectors, which are the areas of interest of the capital managers at that point. It is your job to stay on the right side of trend.

In Focus

If I have the time, I insert, into the interactive chart at billcara2.com, the stock symbols of the companies for which Wall Street broker-dealers have issued ratings. I’ll look for their Point of Cycle (ie, relationship to Accumulation or Distribution Zone and whether trending up or down) before deciding whether and how much of a boost or drag that analyst report could have on the stock, industry and sector. You see, a ratings change from a Sell-side analyst comes with a story. Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) tells that story to thousands of Buy-side accounts simultaneously. The result could be a change in the trend and cycle of the share price. It’s your job to (i) spot the change, (ii) understand the cause, and (iii) determine the implications for your portfolio.

My book “Lessons from the Trader Wizard,” which will be published by ISI Publications in October, will explain these factors.

Here is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

Here, from “Chris,” using BillCara2.com data that is unsmoothed, unlike David’s data from Worden, are the charts of up to a dozen stocks with RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from Monday:

RSI > 70 (4)

RSI < 30 (12 of 21)

Here are the Cara 100 stocks trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7, sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for Monday.

International Economics Review

The important US economic reports are starting to come now. On Friday, economists are expecting a major jump in GDP, but there may be reasons not to get too excited that the economic woes of the US are over!

Government spending (and need to fund deficits) and failures in the sub-prime credit markets that wipe out assets of we owners and managers of capital are serious concerns today. A stronger economy will re-build assets and also help raise tax revenues of govt, but that takes time to happen.

In the interim, traders need so see promise in order to remain confident. I suspect they will soon get tired of the waiting, and the monthly reporting of economic data and news from Iraq and Afghanistan will ultimately take its toll.

US Economic Calendar for next week

Econoday Weekly International Report

International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

DJIA (interactive) chart

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closing up +68 points to 13785,

Nothing has changed in the market’s rising trend and cycle, despite Friday’s and Tuesday’s smack downs. The DJIA is down about -200 points only over the past five days since its record high, but is still up almost 300 points for the month.

There is a lot of technical support in the 12750-12800 area (May-June-07 trading). There is even more support down at about the 12050 level of March-07. However, if these levels are broken, at the same time interest rates on the 10-year US Treasury rise up through say 5.25 pct, I suspect there will be a dramatic sell-off. Always focused on risk before reward, I (and you) need to avoid the big pull-backs, and we need to be positioned (long in the best value-priced stocks of the highest quality companies) to take advantage of the rallies. That means we have to be rotating out of the past winners and into what we believe will be the next winners from our portfolio watchlist.

There is a rhythm to prices. As markets ebb and flow, we try to catch the waves that best serve our objective in maintaining and then growing the value of our portfolio.

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

These exchange indexes were mixed today.

Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

The Nikkei 225 lost -156 points to close at 17702. That is a two-day loss of -300 points.

The Mar-07 16600 support level for the Nikkei 225 of the very important Japanese market is the critical one to watch this summer. It seems (at 17702) to be far off, which simply means the higher we go, the higher we need to raise the protective stops.

I set mental stops no worse than -8 pct from the cycle high, which, in the case of the Nikkei 225 index just happens to be near the 16600 technical support level. If violated, I would be out.

Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index . Note the phenomenal 12-month run. Eventually, when the Bear returns, I expect that Singapore, a small trading city-nation, will be one of those equity markets where the damage is obvious from the beginning.

Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai was up +22.5 to 4346.5.

The Shanghai Fly reports today as follows:

Bill,

Not sure if the news has hit the wires yet, we (China) will allow insurance companies to invest up to 15% of their assets internationally, which rounds up to about 300 billion yuan ($40 billion).

I'm sure you've heard of the latest GDP and CPI numbers. Economy appears to be overheating, the theory that this will slow down post-Olympics seems to have some merit.

For now, it appears the markets are undaunted, rising while the numbers suggest higher rates and more tightening from the financial authorities. (A few days ago, they raised deposit rates again, and cut the tax on interest from the bank from 20% to 5%.)

Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .

Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

The BSE 30 Sensex index was up +77 points to 15776, but did not touch Tuesday’s intra-day high.

Download Astaire Weekly Report on India (dated July 24) courtesy of Deepak Lalwani.

Europe>

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

On Tuesday, I wrote: “The FTSE is down -79 at 7:10am ET to 6566. This is looking ominous, perhaps.” Yesterday I added, “I’ll say!!!” Then the FTSE proceded to fall -79 points to 6376.

It is very important to me that the first line of technical support for the UK equity market has been broken. London is perhaps the most sophisticated fixed income market in the world, and possibly traders there are troubled greatly by the breakdown in the US credit markets.

There is technical support in the 6400-6500 April and June levels. However, the real underpinning of the FTSE appears to be the 6000 level of March-07.

As I warned at much higher levels, “Should the FTSE drop to 6500 I would be out and would then expect a test of 6000.” Today we are at 6384 (8:25am ET).

Watching the trends and cycles of UK-listed stocks in their morning session is necessary to help do your daily set-up for North American listed stocks. With ADRs and all, many of these companies have inter-listed stocks, and also increasingly every company’s business is becoming global in scope. As capital markets do not operate in a vacuum, traders have to be aware of (i) what is happening to prices in other markets (ii) the causes of those price changes, and (iii) the potential impact on your portfolio.

Bonds & Yields Review

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Traders of bonds and stocks are nervous that rates/yields might rally here, but so far it is the bond prices that are in an upswing.

US Dollar Review

Here is the chart of the end of the week trading.

The trade-weighted USD has rocketed up to 80.693 at this point, Thursday morning. Yes, “It appears the Fed/Treasury has intervened to avert a collapse. Plunge Protection Team at work. Traders beware.”

Commodities Review

Interactive Charts of the CRB Commodities Index:

$CRB Index

The index level is presently 319.14, helped by yesterday’s spike in oil prices.

Oil Review

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Here is the e-miNY Sept-07 Crude Oil chart.

This morning the e-mini September contracts are at 76.95, spiking sharply higher on a significant drop in crude inventories.

Gold & Precious Metals Review

Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.

Gold (spot) is at 671.30, down 5.50 at 8:32am ET.

It is still “Onwards and upwards to 750 this quarter, I believe” but traders have to recognize that the Fed cannot permit gold to rocket out of control. They need to support the USD, and other central banks are in that action too.

I did acknowledge my concerns here three days ago.

Earlier this week I said to be careful not to chase stocks here as the Precious Metal group has already had a big run up in the past month. I feel it needs spot prices for gold and silver to move up a bit here before the stocks will lift again. Once again, this is not a forecast that prices are going down longer-term, but only that the risk is growing.

All the time, longer-term, I am weighing today’s risk versus tomorrow’s potential reward. Moreover, I am always trying to assess where prices are with respect to trends and cycles, and the causes of that.

Since nobody on the Sell-side is likely to tell me, and I am trading in competition with the Buy-side (ie, to out-perform the market indexes), I have to look for leading indicators (bellwethers) of probable future price motion.

As to the overall market and gold specifically, the gold trend and cycle is a known lagging indicator of a broad-based Bull market. In a Bull fight, the Bear takes down the paper-backed securities first (credit market based interest-sensitive stocks) because they are the weakest storehouses of value. Next to come are the stocks of the companies that hold assets comprised of brand and patents and so forth because these companies have products and services people always need and use to some degree through thick or thin. Finally comes the commodity-based producing companies, which because of their control of the supply-demand economics can stay stronger longer. The strongest of course is the goldminer producing companies because gold is real money – a permanent storehouse of value. So, when the Gold Bear arrives on the scene, it is almost always a case of having desert to end the meal. By then, the rest of the market has already been consumed.

In the current market cycle, US Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chief Bernanke have managed to support the financials longer (in their price trend and cycle) than most of their predecessors. But, in the end, the free market will prevail over intervention because the free market is based on natural law, where ultimately human nature will drive people to do what they are going to do in any event, with the passage of time.

So the focus on gold, unfortunately, means the market is quite late in its long-term cycle.

After a market pull-back through a complete Bear cycle, the Financials will be the seeds that first sprout as drivers of the next Bull. That happens because Bear markets send interest rates (ie, the price of money) down. We then borrow that money to build economically productive assets (ie, wealth); and the Bull then thrives and the Bear dies.

As I say, there is a rhythm to all prices. The market is a dance. Gold is the last one out on the dance floor before the music stops.

Usually. (LOL)

For this week though, this is not the free market at work. It’s the Plunge Protection Team, plus short-term oriented profit takers. There will soon be a time to buy the dip.

Community Chat

No, I have not slacked off here in paradise. I actually got a lot of business done this week.

Having completed the manuscript for “Lessons from the Trader Wizard,” I decided on a new venture, to become, in addition to my other responsibilities, the Managing Director and investor in a Guyana gold operation called West Point Ventures Ltd (BVI), until now owned exclusively by a large insurance company, but not yet operated.

In private hands, West Point had invested several million dollars in acquiring claims for large scale mining, plus 31 miles of the most productive placer mining concessions along the Mazaruni River deep in the rain forest interior, close to Venezuela. Diamonds and gold have been mined in the area for two hundred years.

The mines and dredge operations have until recently always been small and undercapitalized. Today there are several Canadian mining and exploration operations in Guyana, including IAMgold's Omai Mines (NYSE:IAG, TSX:IMG), Guyana Goldfields (TSX:GUY), Aranka Gold (TSX.V:ARK), and ValGold (TSX.V:VAL), among others. The excitement among those groups for their prospects in Guyana is obvious.

The Guiana Shield, stretching from Central America to Africa, is internationally known as one of the world’s most productive areas for precious metals and diamonds. The epicenter is known to be in Venezuela, within about 200 miles of the West Point property, where all the Canadian operators are working.

Mining professionals have always believed that the physically challenging interior of Guyana holds the most promise for major new gold discoveries in the world. Recent changes in government and the development of some interior roads and airstrips alongside the rivers of the rainforest has served to open up the country somewhat to minerals exploration. The West Point-owned dredge is by far the largest and most modern in the country, and is featured in the Guyana Geology and Mines Commission brochure.

When the insurance company’s manager showed me their purchase and plans for development, I expressed my interest, but only if the company would agree to have me finance additional dredges and to acquire export licenses, a gold buying operation from the country’s 100 or so small mining operators, and a charter for a gold bullion bank in the capital city of Georgetown.

This week, I agreed to acquire a large number of shares in West Point from the insurance company, and be appointed a Director as well as Managing Director of the Company. Plans are now being made for a group of us to visit Guyana to attend a mining conference there in August. Following that, I will be preparing private placement offering documents in a Cayman Islands investment fund I am involved with.

Yes, I enjoy trading and everything about it, but I have always loved gold trading and gold mining operations. I am certain to want to write a book about this new chapter in my life.

Just thinking about it makes me happy. Have a good day.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 26, 2007 09:00:38 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary

Discourse

Bill,

I want to post two links to some very compelling court transcripts regarding the battle between public companies and Wall Street. Some of the commentary by Wall street's legal team is disturbing to read.

I would suggest that your readers take the time to make a copy of these transcripts and read them at their leisure. The Senate Banking has increased their concerns over these issues and will be holding a hearing on this matter - Time TBD. I do understand that a Senate Banking hearing on the Status of Capital Markets will take place Tuesday with the SEC called to testify (not yet posted on site)

http://investigatethesec.com/20070725O.htm

http://investigatethesec.com/20070530X.pdf

Posted by: Patchie at July 26, 2007 9:13 AM [link]

Moin,

nice number from Fitch

A report by the rating agency published on Thursday predicts that more than half of the $1,300bn leveraged loans market in the US will need to be refinanced in the next three years.

Time to hire staff for the distressed debt division.......

Posted by: jmf at July 26, 2007 9:17 AM [link]

could be a good day for scaling into miners...watching xau 148...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 9:19 AM [link]

Wanted to make sure everyone saw the comments from MarkM posted this morning as they were in yesterday's blog, but are relevant to today's trading given MarkM's calls on the market this year (copied below)...

Breadth continued to weaken yesterday (and stands below March low levels)even as the Indices were rallying on the backs of the energy spike. All of my indicators have rolled over and are flashing a big warning sign. They are taking this higher on fewer and fewer shares, a classic sign of a major top if it continues. New lows have exploded to the upside and are being matched tit for tat by new highs.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 26, 2007 6:35 AM

Posted by: bb at July 26, 2007 9:20 AM [link]

yes, i read markm's comments when futures were still mixed (naz was still positive)...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 9:25 AM [link]

"On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closing up +68 points to 13785,

Nothing has changed in the market’s rising trend and cycle, despite Friday’s and Tuesday’s smack downs. The DJIA is down about -200 points only over the past five days since its record high, but is still up almost 300 points for the month."

I have to respectfully disagree Bill. The markets internals have deteriorated significantly as the averages have risen. Fewer and fewer stocks are supporting this rise. For proof, one can just riff through the Market Breadth indicators at Stockcharts if one doesn't have access to another service. On some measures, the market is weaker than at the March lows. Breadth is at very critical levels. In this respect , Colin Twiggs analyses, while somewhat useful, completely fail to give the whole picture. Candlesticks do not capture what is going on here.

Just my humble opinion.

Posted by: MarkM at July 26, 2007 9:27 AM [link]

Re: MU Someone is buying a ton of it this morning at 13.00, lower than the close, but higher than one would think panic sellers would be willing to take. Due to the director's resignation, perhaps? Anyone know what's up with this?

M.-

Posted by: writersblock at July 26, 2007 9:27 AM [link]

GDX-scaling in here...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 9:45 AM [link]

SLV looks good here...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 9:47 AM [link]

Sorry for the double post, folks. I thought it was important to share.

To give you a flavor of what I am talking about, I am pulling together some of the charts (free source) below:

NYSE Bullish %

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPNYA&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p00000704543

NYSE Summation Index

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p99275867836

NYSE New Lows

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYLOW&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p03529668250

NYSE New Highs-New Lows

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p83657031226

Until recently, the NYSE Adv/Dec line was okay. It is curling over as well.

The market will stabilize if and when breadth improves.

Good luck and good trading.

Posted by: MarkM at July 26, 2007 9:47 AM [link]

...as do UXG/WGDFF...could say something about KRY, but since i own a sizable position, it's unprintable LOL

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 9:49 AM [link]

Akamai is being slaughtered on analyst downgrades over shrinking margins. Currently down 18%. Long AKAM long-term.

Posted by: Fred at July 26, 2007 9:50 AM [link]

A hideous thing happened today. GSS, which I was a stupid idiot to buy yesterday, was rising off it's morning lows when I accidentally entered a market sell order using Scottrade's website, costing me a bundle. This is the second goshdarn time this happened to me. I think I'm going fishing.

Posted by: shark_attack at July 26, 2007 9:58 AM [link]

I am expecting/hoping help from the PPT to end us in green today!

Posted by: JogyP at July 26, 2007 9:59 AM [link]

long gdx/slv/uxg/wgdff...plan to hang onto the wgdff, will hold everything else overnight only if xau closes >=151...

bmd-added a short-term position at 3.32...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 10:04 AM [link]

Dear XXX:

I am in receipt of the material you sent to me on naked short selling and the actions of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to curb its practice. As you may know, the Senate Banking Committee, of which I am a senior member, has scheduled a hearing on Tuesday, July 31, 2007 entitled "The State of the Securities Markets" with SEC Chairman Chris Cox testifying before the Committee.

I will keep your concerns in mind during this hearing and as this issue is debated in Committee and on the Senate floor.

Sincerely,

Michael B. Enzi

United States Senator

MBE:jdh

Posted by: Patchie at July 26, 2007 10:06 AM [link]

2nd, thx for the support yesterday, i continued to raise cash, now about 30%, tempted to buy gdx as well, as you scale in, look at .xau weekly with rsi/7. It just about never bounces off 50 after a signfificant spike in the index. 50dma's of major indices, too, are looking more vulnerable. The dips have been a great way to score but it's a tug between anticipate and over-anticipate. Personally, can't even bear to look at account loss this week. On watchlist too many in red 4-5% each....and xau related.

Posted by: jasper at July 26, 2007 10:12 AM [link]

Alright you guys, cheer up! This is a sale day.

We have to have more ICE! You aren't losing money, you are gaining opportunity.

2nd, were you calm cool and collected enough this AM to get into GDX with a 30 handle?
LOL! I missed it. I was hiding under my desk.

I'm looking at SLW at yesterday's 13.38.
Holding WGDFF as painful as it is. It doesn't stay down long.

I missed openings in GME amd GDX. Dang.

Hang in there guys. Don't look at the balance, it isn't healthy.

Posted by: Craig at July 26, 2007 10:30 AM [link]

I like the metaphor "...there is a rhythm to all prices. The market is a dance. Gold is the last one out on the dance floor before the music stops. Usually. (LOL)". That creates a visual picture for me that won't soon be forgotten.

Life in general seems like a dance, too.

I'm a novice in reading charts, but India's BSE 30 Sensex index chart looks rather bipolar with it's ups & downs in a short period of time.

This is all an education for me.

Posted by: NT at July 26, 2007 10:31 AM [link]

Hi Bill,

I am again unable to do much posting today but will check from time to time. Credit markets are shut. Closed. The equity markets have followed. Liquidity is a funny thing. Here today and gone tomorrow. High beta stocks will continue to get rocked.

There are many margin discussiosn going on at levered CDO firms in NYC and London, That is one reason why market is trading so poorly.

Posted by: Noodle at July 26, 2007 10:32 AM [link]

MarkM - Thanks for your comments which always add perspective to what's going on. I certainly agree that the "tide might be ebbing and starting to flow out for all ships", as indicated by bredth, BUT the $VIX is spiking up and the rule to "buy the spikes" works until it doesn't. Admittedly, that is a thin limb on which to hang hopes.
spot

Posted by: spot at July 26, 2007 10:32 AM [link]

BTU/peabody has plans to turn coal into natural gas. State of KY is going to offer some major tax incentives. Any energy buffs know how new this endeavor is for the industry?

Posted by: jasper at July 26, 2007 10:39 AM [link]

spot-

You are right. It works til it doesn't. I would rather buy the dips though (and have)when the internals are sound. This time around I'll pass.

Posted by: MarkM at July 26, 2007 10:40 AM [link]

Yen is below 120 . . . don't know if this is a short term reversal or the making of a strong move . . We'll see if it holds below 120 . . also noticed my tell, the JPY strengthened vs. NZD despite Reserve Bank of NZ raising rates 25 BPS. Long FXY.

Posted by: Seamus at July 26, 2007 10:41 AM [link]

What's going on WGI / WGDFF???

A sudden hard hit!

Posted by: Fazeli at July 26, 2007 10:41 AM [link]

I just read an interesting article on the "gold carry trade", something I knew nothing about. Basically, it allows CBs to dump huge amounts of gold into the market without accounting for it. Around 2900 tons in 2005. The article was in the daily email from Moneyweek Magazine, but was originally printed in Whiskey and Gunpowder. Here is the url for the Moneyweek version:

www.moneyweek.com/file/32734/the-gold-carry-trade.html

They are predicting that when this carrytrade ends, the price of gold will skyrocket. And the market will eventually cause this--similar to what Bill has been saying about the market prevailing in the longterm, despite CB interventions

Posted by: aucourant at July 26, 2007 10:50 AM [link]

Yen short term carry trade rules the markets. See chart at link below.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FXY&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5EDJI

Posted by: johngeorge at July 26, 2007 11:07 AM [link]

Just musing. I do believe the credit market contagion is more than just the sub prime market fiasco. As Noodle reported credit markets are “shut”. BTW, thanks for your valued insights Noodle.

That said, yesterday I heard a snippet from a hedge fund interview where the director/operator said he turned down HB&B on the Cerebus/Chrysler buy-out debt financing. He claimed most the hedgies did this because they didn’t want to take the risk even though they had the money.

I hit me that this hedge fund manager who runs more than one fund had an interest in turning this down than just for the risk factor. Most of these hedge funds are behind benchmarks like the S&P 500 (up @ 9% prior to today) and have to catch up. What are they doing to catch up? Hedge funds have the largest short interest on the market. By turning these financing offers, liquidity dries up and the equity markets go down.

Posted by: Seamus at July 26, 2007 11:18 AM [link]

Bought 2K KRY at 3.59. GTC on WGDFF. 3K @ 2.45.

Posted by: stktrader at July 26, 2007 11:32 AM [link]

I will buy 1K KRY later in the day if it manages to hold the 3.5 price point.

Looking to buy into SLW, UXG, and WGI, and GFI as well.

XAU has fallen below support at 148, but not by much, if it doesn't hold, aren't we likely headed for the 142-143 range?

Posted by: Fazeli at July 26, 2007 11:38 AM [link]

Anyone with fidelity use their stock screen? To calm my nerves, and taking a cue from Bill about hi quality companies. Here's the screen that yielded five tickers. I was looking to id large cap, growth with hx of good financial health.

TEVA/drugs;GFI/mining;CSX/rails;DHR/machinery;UNP/rails

With a little less stringent criteria, surprising number of rails;on a 10yr chart the rails are underperformers, DHR quite impressive long term

Market Cap.: Greater than or Equal to 7000, Price/Book Ratio: Lowest 80%, Price/Cash Flow Ratio: Lowest 80%, Price/Sales Ratio: Lowest 80%, Book Value Growth (5-Yr Avg.): Highest 60%, EPS Growth: 5-Yr Hist.: Highest 60%, EPS Growth (Proj. 5 Yr): Highest 40%, Oper. Margin (5-Year Avg.): Highest 40%, Cap. Spending Growth (5 Yr): Highest 60%, Debt to Capital: Lowest 60%, Divd. Growth Rate (5-Yr Avg.): Highest 40%, Ret. on Sales: Highest 40%

Posted by: jasper at July 26, 2007 11:45 AM [link]

Akamai (AKAM) is down 25% today. From today you now need a 33% return just to get even. Is it possible that that money could be redeployed for a better opportunity?

Just Thinking.

Posted by: Telestar3d at July 26, 2007 11:47 AM [link]

Earnings strangles updated from yesterday at the same site (http://tinyurl.com/22lxt4). AAPL and particularly AKAM big winners. BAIDU was in there too, but the premiums were too high (a la Google). Last post on this. Thanks.

Posted by: SiO2 at July 26, 2007 11:54 AM [link]

Once all the dirt settles, it looks like the home builders, mortgage, home related stocks will be the place to be.... When the dirt settles!.

Dab

Posted by: dabonenose at July 26, 2007 12:00 PM [link]

I sure could use a Krispy Kreame donut right now. Or 6!!!

Posted by: stktrader at July 26, 2007 12:01 PM [link]

Most amazing stat of the day. With the Dow down over 200 points the TRIN is under 1 at .85. No matter how you spin this market action, this does NOT appear to be capitulation even with the VIX taking out the 20 level. Financials are leading the way lower and I am getting the same feedback noodle is; trading in the CDO market has completely ground to a halt. My guess is traders are holding their breath hoping things don't careen out of control because nobody is able to unload inventory. Risk has been repriced and liquidity is sparse. The PPT will try to hold the market together at 1485 or so on the SPX, but if this area fails look for a panic sell off. Hard to imagine the market rallies until Goldman Sachs tests the 190 level (currently 195.34).

Posted by: optionoracle at July 26, 2007 12:11 PM [link]

Jogy,

Yesterday you wrote that you hold till a 10% gain, till Bill changes his mind, or till the permit comes. I should have had the presence of mind to ask, does that mean you have no stop loss strategy?

I think KRY is a buy at 3.26, which is where I think it may be going today. The stock is being repriced to reflect that fact that they're never getting this permit (ha ha)

Posted by: shark_attack at July 26, 2007 12:12 PM [link]

Jogy,

Yesterday you wrote that you hold till a 10% gain, till Bill changes his mind, or till the permit comes. I should have had the presence of mind to ask, what's your stop loss strategy?

I will buy A LITTLE at 3.26, which is where I think it's going IF the market continues it's decline this afternoon. The stock is being repriced to reflect that fact that they're never getting this permit (Ha Ha...that's a joke, son. Really, I'm kidding. really.)

Posted by: shark_attack at July 26, 2007 12:14 PM [link]

I gave up on everything approx a week and a half ago,,,,,100% cash till I see something encouraging,,,lol. Of course the value of my cash has gone down with the dollar, but not as fast as my stock holdings were.

I have seen this up a 100, down a 100 pts action signal a mkt change of direction before, so am waiting for direction to confirm, including gold.

Dab

Posted by: dabonenose at July 26, 2007 12:14 PM [link]

I'll repeat from my own observation of the intra-day market: capitulation has NOT occured yet. And given the intra-day A/D line(currently at -2734, a level I can't recall) on the NYSE, I'm surprised we aren't lower.

Posted by: omphalos at July 26, 2007 12:20 PM [link]

Patchie,

That is very encouraging that progress is being made and the problem is being acknowledged/responses given by those in high levels of government. I 'signed' the petition a while back. Congratulations on that.

Bill, patiently waiting for the Trader Wizard book.
I should be finished 'empire of debt' by then. unfortunately, i cannot finish more than about 15 pgs before falling asleep, literally! Due to exhaustion, of course. I listened to an interview with the CEO of Valgold not so long ago and the story and his enthusiasm were very indicative of future success in the region.

Posted by: Eric at July 26, 2007 12:23 PM [link]

Chris,
In the case of KRY, I don't have a stop loss strategy based on price.

If it comes to 3.25 today I will be buying more. It's in my IRA account and I have time to wait it out.

Posted by: JogyP at July 26, 2007 12:24 PM [link]

Geez, guys, beware of falling knives! I won't buy NUTHIN' till it stops falling, bases, and looks up ...

Posted by: Jock at July 26, 2007 12:28 PM [link]

Jock,
If prices hit ones buy point why wait. One just keeps on pushing ones buy point to a level that one never gets in. I have been in GTC on KRY and WGDFF for a while. The price point got hit today on KRY and I am 10 cents away from WGDFF on 3K shares.

Posted by: stktrader at July 26, 2007 12:37 PM [link]

Intervention is certainly effective. PPT on deck...somewhere in another galaxy.

Posted by: jasper at July 26, 2007 12:39 PM [link]

Yen just breached below 119 . . .if this continues you'll see some more hedge fund unwinding of carry trade and more downside . .

Dumb luck as yesterday sold 80% of KRY holding for a nice profit . . . of course the permit may now come, but I'm OK with my much smaller position.

Posted by: Seamus at July 26, 2007 12:42 PM [link]

What a plunge... Nearing the 300 point DOW drop! 62 on the NASDAQ??? With the recent trading activity, bonds selling off, sub-prime being on the front pages of every newspaper, and earnings being mixed... definitely falling knives!

Posted by: Fazeli at July 26, 2007 12:43 PM [link]

MarkM:
thank you for the chart links for the Market Breadth lesson. New territory for me...
I created a new Chartlist, called Mark's Market Breadth. For additional drama, I commend the P&F Charts for $NYHL, $NYLOW and $NYSI - the longest tails I've ever seen!
Before reading this blog, I thought P&F might be a Ben & Jerry's flavour - like, say, pistachio and fudge; but now that I know better, I've acquired and am presently reading Dorsey's book about Point&Figure Charting - hence, this present interest in tails.
Regards
Joey

Posted by: joey at July 26, 2007 12:44 PM [link]

The true tratiors are, as the eloquent and much respected (by me) Kaimu informs us, the Washington politicians who, since the '63 'coupe when Kennedy was killed and the presidency "hijacked" by the pentagon, most acutely, Washington's, been presiding over a declining dollar, and a declining economic base, and ultimately, a declining standard of living, which is kicking in, oh, just about now. The price blowoff in real estate, and now in stocks, doesn't auger well.

That said, there's a lot of opportunity gonna come out of this, short term. But it's prudent to, when catching falling knives, at least know where the 200 sma is, long term support, etc.
I used to catch knives when I lived with my ex so I'm very used to this sort of thing.
Now I'm not a macroeconomist, but this seems to me to not be a correction, but some kind of end of cycle blowoff. End of easy money, end of LBO's, stocks losing, all that.

Posted by: shark_attack at July 26, 2007 1:01 PM [link]

PPT is out....4.80% on the TYT

USD is down, yen up.

I'm with Jock, I'm not in a buying mode. I may be testing my stops on a few holdings.

Posted by: Craig at July 26, 2007 1:09 PM [link]

Hi Everyone,

I am not able to post much today. I posted through Bill yesterday. Essentially we have a spreading credit contagion fueled by a weakening consumer sector, outrageously poorly structured LBO paper, and levered vehicles that are now being forced to mark to market. In NYC there is growing fear among the dealers. Managers of levered CDO's and CLO's are being asked to post most collateral or in order to compensate for diminshed equity value in the vehicles sell collateral and pay off debt to bring vehicles into compliance.

It is a crisis of confidence. Sand selling begets more selling.

There are simply very few bids for leveraged finance paper of any sort. Routinely paper is being marked down 2-3 points per day. Investors and lenders are very nervous and demanding mor collateral and that is causing the contagion globally.

CDOs and CLOs account for 70% of the paper used to fund buyouts. These are huge huge numbers. Much of this paper as we have discussed in the past is very poorly structured in terms of rates and covenants.

Now the piper is being paid. But remember these are the early innings. It is the leveraged vehicles that take all of this buyout debt and then further lever it AGAIN 5 or 10 or 15 to 1. The dollars are insanely big. And few regulators were watching. A repricing of risk in these vehicles has enormous implications for asset values globally.

Flight to quality and cash.

Best to all...

Posted by: Noodle at July 26, 2007 1:29 PM [link]

Here is a thought (or two).

In observation. There is a credit crunch out there and this has been discussed with frequency on this board. Today we are witness to a correction in the western equity markets.

I believe that the correction is needed however have no idea when it will bottom out. 3-5% or 5-8% or 8-12% correction? Who knows.

This might be an ignorant question or statement but looking at the bond market today. The 10 year is hovering around 4.8%.
That is amazing because during the week of July 2nd through 6th it was trading at/around 5.2%.

Compare that to the dow at 13.55k at the beginning of that week and finished at 13.62k.

Here are some of my thoughts. Publicly it has been said that some of these LBOs may be in danger because of one reason or another but we seem to think it is because the money isn't as cheap when the first inked the deal.

Isn't strange or is it possible that now the money is cheaper to borrower? Pump some news, make some phone calls to friends and family and bingo (Johny) we have cheaper money. The market corrects some and begins to reload to new unforseen all time highs later on this year with cheaper ("friendly" corrected) bond rates. (what does this do to our beloved/hated dollar? can't imagine it, just means PM is looking great)

Then again we could be on to something that we all have been discussing and the carpet is being pulled from underneath all of us and the sky is falling. The sad part is that I have read about it here at this site for weeks/months and NEVER SOLD. Wish i would of sold two days ago. Who knew, then again it could be a correction.

I love this website and thanks to everyone sharing their thoughts and information. This has been the best site for unbiased market information on the internet. In 12 months I have learned more from this site than my undergrade,grad and general websites for investing (ie talking heads).

Thank you.

Norm

Posted by: norm at July 26, 2007 1:37 PM [link]

UNG-related: from the Financial Post yesterday:

North American natural gas inventories are building toward last year's glut level but at an even faster rate, dimming hopes Canadian producers, drillers and oilfield service companies, hit hard by soft prices, will see a significant rebound by fall or winter.

Weak natural gas demand and robust supply helped fill U.S.-based stockpiles to about 3.45 billion cubic feet by the end of October last year -- a modern-day storage record.

The result was a major meltdown in natural gas prices last September, and in Canada it meant the continuation of a pullpack in spending among producers.
[...]
"It could be well into 2008 before we see any kind of sustained uptick in natural gas prices," Mr. King said on a day natural gas prices at major trading hubs in Alberta and on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to levels not seen since December.

Posted by: SiO2 at July 26, 2007 1:37 PM [link]

I just got stopped out of 1K holdings in KRY @ 3.38... pretty crappy loss, could this be a manufactured shakeout?

Posted by: Fazeli at July 26, 2007 1:38 PM [link]

KRY:
3.41 was a support zone with stops below that most likely at 3.39 I suspect. 3.36 and it may move lower quickly.

Posted by: stktrader at July 26, 2007 1:50 PM [link]

Well my SDS is up smartly today!

Hmm so it appears that
1. Gold is still getting capped
2. High Beta stuff like KRY is getting thrown out with the bathwater
3. Maybe, just maybe since inflation expectations are not as well anchored as Ben would like them that a "little" dis-inflationary move just might be tolerated.
4. Short term MINERS will suffer! (yes that means some of my holdings too)
5. ? The big question will we see gold and the miners whipsaw with a very much hoped for flight to quality OR will a brief disinflationary scenario and flight to bonds keep the pain with us for a while?

Posted by: agaunv at July 26, 2007 1:51 PM [link]

HOLD OFF ON THAT 325 KRY BUY POINT..THIS THING'S FALLING TOO FAR TOO FAST, MAY BLOW THROUGH 325 LEVEL. UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

Posted by: shark_attack at July 26, 2007 1:59 PM [link]

FAZELLI, YOU SHOULD BE THANKING YOUR STOPS, AND WISHING YOU'D KILLED THIS TRADE EARLIER.

Posted by: shark_attack at July 26, 2007 2:08 PM [link]

All:
Everything on my screen except TNH is down over 4% or more....however GLD seems o be holding down under 2% (1.9% right now).

Seems to be stronger VS USD even in this fugly BS. XAU got hit with the ugly stick too.

So I'm watching the S&P support and XAU.
That TYT yield sure is being ignored! 4.78%!!!

Posted by: Craig at July 26, 2007 2:09 PM [link]

s_a:

I'm definitely wishing I had terminated earlier. I had a stop set at 3.60 but canceled it because I knew I wouldn't be in front of the computer early this morning, and didn't want erratic trading to stop me out. I should have trusted my instincts.

At the moment, a little bounce off of 3.28 to 3.34!

Posted by: Fazeli at July 26, 2007 2:13 PM [link]

I bow to those that were in cash, or worse, so to speak, and short...and did not exploit the opportunity to gloat. Personally, glad to have what cash I do have. Opportunities will arise, and actually xau is not down that much when looking at a weekly chart. Still above 50dma....unlike many other indices. margin of about 13%. Yikes that's what scares me.

Posted by: jasper at July 26, 2007 2:16 PM [link]

someone's lifting KRY here... it's going the opposite direction of DOW.

Silver miners are especially hard hit. HL, PAAS, SLW, SSRI are all -6%

Posted by: Fazeli at July 26, 2007 2:20 PM [link]

On the bright side, if there is one, the DJIND chart says the dips are still being bought, though I'm not seeing any of it on my screens.

M.-

Posted by: writersblock at July 26, 2007 2:20 PM [link]

Seamus, take a look at SDA. Reports today.

Posted by: SiO2 at July 26, 2007 2:24 PM [link]

Wow, DOW hit -400

Posted by: dabonenose at July 26, 2007 2:24 PM [link]

Norm,

At some point we got to pay the piper, what better time time than when dow makes 14000.
Lord only knows how much funny money needs to be written off and how long that will take to wash through. At the same time you gotta defend the dollar, so I think maybe a double top at best and the fed has to tighten at some point to restore credibility. Low rates strictly a flight to quality. How many funds have to raise cash to replace these cdos who knows. Merrill wants its money and no one wants bx. And they want to blame it all on sub prime and the housing bust.That's normal biz cycle this cdo stuff is the real BS

Posted by: stocon at July 26, 2007 2:25 PM [link]

LOL, Jasper,,I was short too early and got stopped out on that DOW up 200++ last week. Would be green now though, but in cash for now.

Posted by: dabonenose at July 26, 2007 2:29 PM [link]

KRY looks shakey. I see their story being the same as before: get the permit and move ahead... If they haven't been lying about the process, and indeed it's just a matter of receiving the permit after having posted the guarantee bond, then it's a waiting game.

But with a loss of nearly 20% value in the past 2 days, it's hard to see where this thing is headed. The permit can come any day...

Posted by: Fazeli at July 26, 2007 2:36 PM [link]

Going right to Bill's support area - pronto

high 12000s-12050

Posted by: stocon at July 26, 2007 2:36 PM [link]

Stocon,

I appreciate your comments and agree with you. This "correction" is healthy.
Take the past 100 business days, how many were advancing vs. decling? Gotta take profits sometime.

Fazeli: Agreed permit can come at any time! Would of been nice at $4 instead of current levels either way we just need a permit to come.

My employment ends tomorrow. I wish i could of rolled the 401k to an IRA before today's action. that is how the cookie crumbles!

Posted by: norm at July 26, 2007 2:53 PM [link]

Can someone tell me what's going on with the 10 yr notes? I've got a 1090 strike Sept. call and the thing is rocketing. Why would what's happening today lead to that? It had started to show signs of life the past few days, but today it's popping like crazy.

Mike
NYC

Posted by: MikeNYC at July 26, 2007 2:54 PM [link]

..so it's the Big One

...and now we know there is no correlation between the broad market and UNG...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 2:56 PM [link]

Mike flight to quality

Posted by: stocon at July 26, 2007 3:02 PM [link]

Mike flight to quality

Where's the plunge guys?

Posted by: stocon at July 26, 2007 3:04 PM [link]

VIX up 24%

Posted by: stocon at July 26, 2007 3:06 PM [link]

JogyP,

I see only one green on my screen today (apart from the VIX). It's IBKR. It's been going down between one and five percent everyday. The one day the market crashes, it's up! This is one sick stock!

Posted by: jragusa at July 26, 2007 3:08 PM [link]

Well kids I stopped out of partial positions in almost all holdings. Mucho cash....

My port only goes down 5% before I pull the cord.
Lost some $$$ the last couple days. Glad I took what I did a few days ago but I'm still down.

Best to preserve capital and have the funds to re-enter when and if the house of cards stops falling.

Very best of luck to everyone. Be careful.
Once I saw we were flirting with negative 400 pts I decided cash is good.

I'm holding partials of the PM's and miners.

I must sheepishly admit to taking some profit on 25% of my WGDFF. (2500 shares).

When it bases and Jock looks up, I'll follow him!

Posted by: Craig at July 26, 2007 3:08 PM [link]

sure no one wants to hear this, but buying a few things into this frenzy...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 3:14 PM [link]

Good buying opportunity in oil stocks today? Crude hit 77 but rising gas inventory and so-so XOM numbers, combined with everything getting thrown out with the bathwater in the crapfest we've got out there means all of them are getting whacked badly.

Posted by: GTT at July 26, 2007 3:17 PM [link]

2nd_ave

Good timing as usual... SLW was at 12.9 briefly... now at 13.42, so that's pretty wild... could have made some serious cash trading that sucker.

Who's got some advice on re-buying into KRY after being stopped out?

Posted by: Fazeli at July 26, 2007 3:21 PM [link]

Si02 Thx for the heads up. Picked up some more TRA with the turn back up.

Schwab trading window having problems today (reminds me of '87 when everyone tried to call in at the same time).

Posted by: Seamus at July 26, 2007 3:24 PM [link]

Well Seamus, I picked up SDA, and TRA Dec calls today.

Posted by: SiO2 at July 26, 2007 3:30 PM [link]

KRY now has big time resistance at 3.70 see how it acts there should get clobbered if not buy it when it becomes support.

Posted by: stocon at July 26, 2007 3:31 PM [link]

Seamus,
TRA down over 8%, is that right? Yeow.

TNH was up after a week or so of pulling back.

Posted by: Craig at July 26, 2007 3:40 PM [link]

Hedge fund in Australia (dont have a name) quit allowing redemptions last night. Many hedge funds today getting margin calls. That is one reason for the sell off in energy today as that market is very liquid and there have been profits to take.

Posted by: johngeorge at July 26, 2007 3:44 PM [link]

fazeli-didn't have time to watch slw...just added to my opening positions (gdx/slv/uxg/wgdff/bmd)...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 3:50 PM [link]

I like it 2nd_ave. Bought SLW, PVX, and NXG today.

Posted by: johngeorge at July 26, 2007 3:51 PM [link]

...thoughts now are to sell into the next wave up, and i'll be happy with 2-3% (which may even be friday), then catch another wave down...but i admit to often trading (for lack of a better term) on karma, and i'll make that decision when it happens...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 3:55 PM [link]

The following are Bloomberg's Breaking News headlines. Which of these things is different from the rest?

A) Stocks Tumble Worldwide, Treasuries Rally as Investors Turn Away From Risk
B) Goldman, Lehman, Bear Stearns Bond Risk Surges, Swaps Show; Shares Decline
C) Paulson Says Subprime-Mortgage Collapse Doesn't Threaten Economic Growth
D) U.S. New-Home Sales Slide; Durable Goods Orders Drop, Signaling Slowdown
E) Volatility Index Rises to Highest in 13 Months as Stocks Plunge Worldwide

If you answered (C) you would be correct!

Posted by: Fred at July 26, 2007 4:02 PM [link]

Hello all,

I've been a lurker on this board for some time and appreciate the many insightful comments. I thought I'd share some news I received from Investor Relations at WGDFF. According to them, in order to be listed on AMEX, the share price needed to be above $2.00 for 30 consecutive days. Today (7/26) is day 30. The company was allowed to submit its application for listing after being above $2.00 for 21 days so it submitted its application last week. No word on how long it will take for the application to be approved. The company said it would issue a PR soon with an update.

Posted by: petew at July 26, 2007 4:02 PM [link]

xau closes at 147 and change, holding overnight anyway...one advantage of karma over discipline...and we'll find out tomorrow which one worked better LOL..

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 4:04 PM [link]

Craig Yes, dipped my toe back into TRA yesterday after taking 25-30% profit 2 weeks ago. With today's downdraft, they announced great 2nd Qtr results, nat gas costs low and I believe hedged, so I added today, mostly below 24. Instead of a toe, I now have part of my leg in it.

Re: TNH--also announced great earnings and I thought I read right before the open that they announced a $3 distribution per share. No position.

Si02 again thx for the heads-up. Picked up some SDA also and see it has now bounced up. Good luck!

Yen with big one day move for a currency. Usually will fall back a bit, but with carry trade impications and the hedgies all over it, who knows. Long FXY.

Posted by: Seamus at July 26, 2007 4:22 PM [link]

2nd (Dude) You crack me up! LOL!

If Karma starts working you will need to start "Karma Traders".

I, for one, hope it provides stunning results.

See you all in the AM....I'm worn out after today.

Posted by: Craig at July 26, 2007 4:27 PM [link]

For those with a longer term focus, some of the water ETFs look appealing, but do your own DD. Just missed out at the close on CGW which has more of an international focus.

Posted by: Seamus at July 26, 2007 4:27 PM [link]

Thank You Seamus.
Nice profit.

We'll see what tomorrow brings.
I've got the ferts on my screen!

I should have *seen* TNH at around $110 but let it go. No huevos on this one. Very volatile.
It seems to routinely make 7-10% moves.

Posted by: Craig at July 26, 2007 4:39 PM [link]

Seamus:
PHO is a core holding, and I added PIO for just the reason you mention...any reason why you chose CGW over PIO?

Posted by: jasper at July 26, 2007 6:15 PM [link]

Another dreadful day for the PMs. And even though I'm diversified and hedged, this was one of the worst days of the year for me.

The KRY permit saga is now a tiresome joke, no doubt. It would not only be ironic for the permit to get finalized tomorrow or the next days, but also terrible in terms of the stock price. After today's battering, I expect a lot of longs would jump at the chance to escape with their skins intact.

Better for the stock to settle down a bit and then the permit to arrive after it builds a new base. But, as everyone should know by now, this market never goes strictly according to plan.

Posted by: number2son at July 26, 2007 6:25 PM [link]

SDA should be good tomorrow. Earnings rose sharply in the second quarter on stronger poultry sales abroad. Net profit was 109.3 million reais ($56.6 million) versus 17.6 million reais in the previous-year period.

"Gross operating revenue totaled 2.3 billion reais, a gain of 29.7 percent over the same period last year and 6.7 percent from the first quarter.

International demand for poultry grew sharply as concerns about the avian influenza diminished, Sadia said in a statement.

Even though the local currency appreciated 9.4 percent against the U.S. dollar from a year earlier, export revenues in the second quarter rose by 45 percent year-on-year to 1.1 billion reais"

Posted by: SiO2 at July 26, 2007 6:53 PM [link]

All my diligent attention to fundamentals, technicals and risk/reward ratios couldn't save me from taking a terrible beating today (down 4%). So, in a fit of defiance I bought another 2K of KRY (help me!) LOL.

Posted by: Fred at July 26, 2007 7:09 PM [link]

craig-karma is one of those things that only works when unencumbered...as soon as i start involving OPM, it's going away...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 7:20 PM [link]

#2son
KRY has dangled the permit carrot in front of investors for 3 years come next month (AUG)
Don't hold your breath....

Posted by: bigwad at July 26, 2007 7:37 PM [link]

I'm sure we all noticed a turn at just about 1500 hours. All that was falling in the PMs and elsewhere suddenly reversed and got some (albeit, not so hot) buying, but it did show some buying interest.
I don't think this is a one way street, and I am not yet ready to play it that way... though the past few days had me thinking very hard about doubling down on SFK and SRS. They have performed well as hedges, giving me more confidence in the Ultra shares ability to do what they say they will do. I like them and will use them in the future, particlarly in restricted (IRA, Roth) accounts, but right now they seem extended.
It seems to me that we are now going through the raise cash, sell everything phase of this correction. If I am right there will be a bounce that will offer opportunities to sell long positions and comfortably get short.
If I am wrong, there will be no bounce and it will be too late short term to buy the short ETFs.
Either way, I am holding my long PMs based on fundamentals and also insurance.
Godd luck to all.

Posted by: Rigdon at July 26, 2007 8:04 PM [link]

Yen carry trade if it comes undone - thoughts on the best ways to profit outside of owning yen or inverse our markets here? thanks much pondering as this appears to be unfolding

http://www.rightsideadvisors.com/feed/commentary.aspx?Path=/rsa/commentary/blog/20070726_120715_msg.html

Posted by: moon at July 26, 2007 8:34 PM [link]

Excerpt from MarketWatch:

"Outflows in U.S. mutual funds on Tuesday hit an estimated $5.5 billion, according to TrimTabs Investment Research.

That would amount to the second-biggest outflow of the year, according to the data tracking firm. Only a $6.5 billion outflow on Feb. 27 was greater.

"Fear and ignorance seem to be gripping retail investors these days," said Charles Biderman, chief executive of Santa Rosa, Calif.-based TrimTabs on Thursday, pointing to ongoing concerns about subprime lending and slumping housing markets.

"There's no credit risk; no bank is going to lose money on this subprime fear," he added. "Income-tax collections are strong, and you don't have a housing collapse when wage income and job growth are surging."

Full story: http://tinyurl.com/yoposw

I view the outflow as a positive.

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 9:04 PM [link]

Mark Hulbert on today's drop: "A pause that refreshes" http://tinyurl.com/2ht6d3

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 9:16 PM [link]

...that link didn't work too well > you can find the Hulbert video on marketwatch.com...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 26, 2007 9:18 PM [link]

Hey 2nd ave, we're buddies, right? So as your friend, I have to speak up and say, that marketwatch story is just plain suspect. No bank will be hurt by subprime? We can say that even before we know the full extent of the problem? No we can't.

And as far as wage and income growth surging, they're not, but remember, wages and income will slow along with the economy under the scenario I'm referencing.

This is a complete panic by individual investors? Is that who sold the 23 million shares of Goldman Sucks today? Was it joe nobody selling 23 million GS? Or was it Goldman's own, and a bunch of overpaid fund managers panicking out of GS today? I bet a lot of Brooks Brother's suits are going to the cleaners this weekend.

I'm not saying the market's going down or up. I'm saying, with japan down 400 right now, we don't know yet.

Keep yer powder dry

Posted by: shark_attack at July 26, 2007 9:43 PM [link]

Here is a Standard& Poor Article on Subprime from march 2007

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.article/3,1,1,0,1148442756196.html

Key Points;

For Big U.S. Brokerages, Subprime Woes Aren't Hurting Profits

"Remember What Happened The Last Time?
A little history can help keep things in perspective, as the subprime market has been through this before only to surge again in popularity. In the 1990s, a large number of mortgage finance companies grew their subprime portfolios aggressively. Between 1995 and 2000, the value of outstanding subprime loans expanded to $308 billion in 2000 from $91 billion in 1995.

But in 1998, the default of Russia and the liquidation of Long Term Capital Management, among other things, contributed to a liquidity crisis. Many subprime mortgage lenders, which had already been experiencing rising delinquencies and defaults, had difficulty raising financing for their activities, and a large number of these firms filed for bankruptcy in the ensuing years. Then, as now, the U.S. brokerage industry provided financing for the sector and underwrote securitizations of subprime mortgages. Although the brokers experienced losses on subprime exposures, their performance in other sectors had a far greater effect on earnings-–the same dynamic we saw at work in this week's earnings reports."

Posted by: JogyP at July 26, 2007 10:30 PM [link]

I for one could care less about the housing fiasco in the states. While I think it may play havic on the markets short term, this play is and has been for the last 5 plus years strickly a dollar play.

Follow the dollar on a quarter by quarter bases and you will with great certainty know the direction of the stock market in the U.S.A.

This quarter we should see earnings rise very moderately and if the first 6 plus weeks (with the exception of the last few days) is any indication of how the rest of the quarter plays out; then next quarter should see the market fly to new heights.

Sure, stay away from the financials that have mortgage exposure in the U.S., as the housing market which should not see bottom until the end of 2008. But buy companies that have a large part of their growth outside the U.S.A.

Personally I covered a couple shorts today and went long (maybe a little prematurely; as I think tomorrow the market may open weak and then rally off its low open) on two penny Stocks today, that have great growth stories and I expect to make a killing on.

Today, if not tomorrow morning, may be a great entry point on DRYS as this stock looks like it may have a another $25 in it by the time options expire in August.

The Vector Vest Value line has fallen very slightly (a sign that the correction is not fundamentally based) over the last few days. THIS IS A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKETS: NOT THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE BULL MARKET.

FOLLOW THE DOLLAR; IT TELLS THE STORY. Sure its fallen slightly in the last couple days, but unless it finds a way to erase the DEBT AND DEFICIT any time soon, this rise in the stock market is not anywhere near over.

That leads me to one last point: ARE AMERICANS STUPID? Do you really buy the B.S. being sold to you: that the years under Bush have been prosperous? Your dollar buys a third of what it bought, since Bush came into power.

Do you think you are richer now then when Bush fist came into power? As a Canadian my Dollar has risen over 33% and the stock market index has risen in Canada more then your Dow Jones index has risen in the same time period. So in essence as a Canadian I am 33% better off then an American (financially). WHICH IN ESSENCE MEANS THAT AMERICIANS HAVE LOST 33% of your FINANCIAL EQUITY. And if you think it is only that me as a Canadian who has done better then you as an American; then you haven't looked at your currency in comparison to the world.

AMERICANS HAVE LOST REAL WEALTH AGAINST MOST MAJOR CURRENCIES IN THE WORLD. Now I admit that it is the cost of war, but when I hear these ignorant idiots on CNBC defend the Bush policies as being responsible for the economic boom under George W. Bush I am amazed at the stupidity of these people: who think they have half a brain.

Against the rest of the world (who are gaining wealth at a way faster clip than the USA) the Americans are getting poorer; EXCEPT FOR THE TOP 2% of the US POPULATION; that own the AMERICAN PEOPLE, THROUGH THE NEWSPAPERS AND TV STATIONS LIKE CNBC. WHICH LIE TO THE AMERICAN SHEEP, THAT ARE BEING FED BY THE FOLLOWERS OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY; giving the super wealthy tax breaks, while they devalue the US Dollar making slaves of the American people; by doing so.

GIVE ME A DOLLAR WORTH A MILLION US DOLLARS AND I MAKE YOU THE AMERICAN PEOPLE MY SLAVES.

Your weak dollar buys you a job: My strong dollar buys me all your companies, AND MAKES ME YOUR MASTER.

Posted by: Peter at July 26, 2007 10:56 PM [link]

jasper re: water ETFs

No real reason as both CGW and PIO both have global similarities. CGW has more assets, daily volume, and focuses more on bigger companies. Fees are similar: CGW 0.65% and PIO 0.75%.

CGW appears more concentrated and I do like SZE and VE holdings which make up a larger % of total portfolio than PIO. On the other hand, PIO has a higher % with Hyflux out of Singapore which I follow.

Right now: Hang Seng down 425, Nikkei down 410, but Shanghai (God bless'em) is up 6.

Good night and good luck!

Posted by: Seamus at July 26, 2007 11:32 PM [link]

"GIVE ME A DOLLAR WORTH A MILLION US DOLLARS AND I MAKE YOU THE AMERICAN PEOPLE MY SLAVES."

Peter, you seem a little tense. Have you considered Valium? Maybe Xanax?

Posted by: Klingon288 at July 26, 2007 11:38 PM [link]

Klingon288; I am making a point...

I heard for years, politicions in Canada say how a weak dollar was good for our economy. I am just saying that a weak dollar depreciates your dollar's buying power and weakens your capitals value.

In essence it enslaves you to Countries with a stronger dollar value.

Don't miss the forest for the trees: I make some valid points to make people aware of the lies being propagated through the media; so that the eyes of those whom the media would try and deceive, would be open.

Posted by: Peter at July 27, 2007 12:13 AM [link]

Who's got some advice on re-buying into KRY after being stopped out?

Posted by: Fazeli at July 26, 2007 3:21 PM

The intensity of the post-crash recovery in this stock was, all things considered, quite strong. Of course, all depends on the direction of tomorrow's market overall, so discerning what that's going to be is key. If gold is up and futures are up and all is happy, then KRY is kind of hanging right on the 200 sma right here (price is actually below the 200, but marginally so).
Volume today, if not precisely climactic, certainly was healthier than in past sessions. I'd have rather seen it do 20 million but hey, there's always tomorrow. Finally, the 200 WEEK is around 3.2 and has been supportive during most thick and thin.
The Crystallex investor must have icewater in his veins and a heart of steel from all the abuse this shareholder's taken.
Maybe it'll rally from right here. I was kind of shell-shocked today and really should have picked a little off the bottom, but I missed the whistle.

Stocks I like better than KRY are GMO at 6.50 if it gets there for a moment and GSS on a 3.50 retest or a decisive change of mood

Posted by: shark_attack at July 27, 2007 1:10 AM [link]

Chris,

There is a saying out there. "what does not kill you will only make you stronger". If you are a KRY investor this has to be a motto to stick by. Me personaly may be a little overweight in the stock. After putting in hours and hours of DD i believe it will be a winner.

A crystal ball would be nice though... sell in mid 4's and buy back today wow. Over the past year many have allowed times like these to sell on weakness (to protect assests) but unfortunately buy back on good news at a higher price. Because of this website and knowledge from all the great contributors I have learned so much.

Essentially if you are in KRY right now your in... could of realized a gain or not. Either way the market is very strange and unpredictable but anyways what stock was a winner today besides apple and ford? Sure there were more but there weren't many.

This pain will make the iron stomach become a steel stomach. Hopefully the steel will turn into las cristinas gold!

Those are my thoughts. Hopefully they are correct for the longs but they could be WRONG TOO! Good luck!

Posted by: norm at July 27, 2007 1:21 AM [link]

Chris,

There is a saying out there. "what does not kill you will only make you stronger". If you are a KRY investor this has to be a motto to stick by. Me personaly may be a little overweight in the stock. After putting in hours and hours of DD i believe it will be a winner.

A crystal ball would be nice though... sell in mid 4's and buy back today wow. Over the past year many have allowed times like these to sell on weakness (to protect assests) but unfortunately buy back on good news at a higher price. Because of this website and knowledge from all the great contributors I have learned so much.

Essentially if you are in KRY right now your in... could of realized a gain or not. Either way the market is very strange and unpredictable but anyways what stock was a winner today besides apple and ford? Sure there were more but there weren't many.

This pain will make the iron stomach become a steel stomach. Hopefully the steel will turn into las cristinas gold!

Those are my thoughts. Hopefully they are correct for the longs but they could be WRONG TOO! Good luck!

Posted by: norm at July 27, 2007 1:21 AM [link]

Well now it gets REAL INTERESTING doesn't it? The charts say we have a couple of possibilities here and the fundamentals say they are all in play. First, we could be rolling over into a secular bear. Second, we could be headed toward a "normal" 10% correction (we already have this in many, many stocks). Or third, the extreme oversold levels here and the "buying interest" (hee, hee, hee) at 3PM yesterday means the floor is in.

If this were February and my charts were as they were back then as far as market internals go, I'd be a dip buyer for sure. But they aren't. THEY SUCK. But frankly, on a ST basis they can't get much worse, especially new lows which are off the charts. To my eye, without the strength in some individual names, we'd have a 10% correction already in the indices. That is why this could be the biggest stealth correction of all time. Something to think about.

Why could this be the beginning of a secular bear? Because the fundamental psychology of the markets just did a big reversal. Whereas we had good ol' bid under it from M&A activity, sotck bubacks, leverage etc, that has dried up. Total constipation. Risk is being re-priced. We will be asked to believe that the ~5% drop (less) in the averages did the job. Do you belive it? If yes, then buy. If no, then wait.

We will very likely retest those lows on the SP500 and the 1460 area, maybe as early as Monday. Maybe today. If it takes a couple of weeks to do it then that would be a healthier base. If it holds then that is indicative that the secular bear is not here and the correction is over. If it doesn't then the deeper correction is still in play as well.

So no market calls for MarkM today, not that yesterday's warning was one. Leisa assures me I have no idea what the market is going to do, anyway. Keeps my very large ego in check. ;) I pointed out what I did because I thought RISK WAS EXTREMELY HIGH. My system does not call for buying dips and falling knives in this environment, unless you have a Piss Away account. Doesn't mean you can't do it, or that I am right, but that perhaps maybe just maybe you wanted to have a peek at some things I had been looking at, that's all.

Good luck and good trading.

Posted by: MarkM at July 27, 2007 7:49 AM [link]

Print version of Hulbert's video: http://tinyurl.com/yqz5yj

chris-i don't necessarily agree with the views i provide links to, but it's good to know what's out there, and i provide links only to sources that i respect or have had a good track record...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 27, 2007 7:59 AM [link]

Re all the comments about handling losses: I don't have icewater in my veins nor an iron stomach. I'm a pretty sensitive guy...and paradoxically that has allowed me enough painful experiences to learn what works best, which is to isolate the emotional aspect and immediately work on handling the loss. (For some reason, this reminds me of a Dear Abby column I read back in the eighties, where a 46-year-old woman was debating whether to enroll in college because she would be fifty by the time she graduated...the very appropriate response: "In four years you'll be 50...you can be 50 with a college degree, or you can be 50 still wishing you had one.") So you have a loss...at the end of the day, you can be sitting there having done nothing about it, or you can feel better having taken steps to deal with it.

Specific actions you might take include selling immediately, swapping out of one position into another, adding, or deciding to make no changes. What's often worked for me during broad market drops where I'm holding is either selling one basket in order to enter what's become a more attractive one, or selling a stock in order to amp up my position by buying calls. I also have no problem changing my outlook entirely and clearing the table. Any decision you make trumps indecision. So ignoring the pain of a loss has nothing to do with icewater...it's just the most efficient way to handle the situation...i can always hit the bars later LOL...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 27, 2007 8:12 AM [link]

..let me rephrase that: i have neither icewater in my veins nor an iron stomach...;)

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 27, 2007 8:13 AM [link]

Thanks MarkM for your comments. Your thoughts always come across as well-considered and focused. And I absolutely find value in looking into your various sources and tools.

Posted by: manx928 at July 27, 2007 8:19 AM [link]

..a counterpoint to Hulbert: James DePorre's headline says it all: "Don't Rely on Hope. The market is shifting. Don't get left behind."

I have great respect for this guy also...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 27, 2007 8:20 AM [link]

...didn't mean leave out MarkM...just read his post, and needless to say I have great respect for his calls...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 27, 2007 8:22 AM [link]

I'm with Mark but take a look at the TYT. 4.75% The PPT is pumping the USD.
No worries, the USD can't be pumped up, it's a girly dollar.

And they say time travel is impossible.
Nay nay. We were just transported back to February.

I'm watching S&P levels. That is what forced my stops yesterday.
Be careful everyone. The market seems to want to draw buyers in. Beware traps.

Posted by: Craig at July 27, 2007 8:35 AM [link]

Well, well, well. While I was typing (I am the two-fingered variety and it takes me a LOT of time to compose) the futes just did a humongous reversal. So strap it on and Cowboy Up. I have a tough time believing that we will do a retake of February where we gapped it down and then did a huge reversal and clear sailing ahead. Is that the playbook or is there something ominous in these waters?

Need to hold 1460 area and spring off it. That will be my key.

Ah, I see it now on my ticker. GDP falls short of expectations. Very weak Consumer Spending in the GDP report. Sorry for the running commentary.

Posted by: MarkM at July 27, 2007 8:36 AM [link]

No no, keep it coming Mark!

We need it. Has anyone noticed (I'm sure Bill has) how the number of posts skyrockets in times like this?

That is a good thing.

Posted by: Craig at July 27, 2007 8:39 AM [link]

Keep an eye on the 10 year yield. Up from 4.74% earlier this AM to 4.81% now on Bloomberg.

I'm also watching the XAU and gold and silver futures which are down....

We lost over $.40 on silver in about two days.

Posted by: Craig at July 27, 2007 9:24 AM [link]

feels like a stand-off right now..

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 27, 2007 10:00 AM [link]

$BPSPX,$NYHL,$BPNYA,$NYSI,$BPMATE,$AMHL,
$NAHL,$BPNDX,$NASI,$BPCOMPQ

(tiny url keeps this post from working)

Markm, an earlier post of yours on internal charts had me go back to a bookmark which was routine for me in the past. So many pieces to try to use as the tea leaves. Shifting sands, etc. Anyway, above link I found convenient for a quick look. It was my way of trying to determine percentage of equities to have exposed. If you have a suggested list of stockchart internals to make into a glancing chart I'd be interested. In hindsight, with the bulls pushing against resistance last week, an allocation to an ultrashort would have made sense as a hedge to dampen a harsh downside. I keep overlooking that choice, perhaps because when I have used them they can hurt too. Cash may be the better hedge? I'll be tempted to use my 30% cash, now, on those ultralongs. So many choices. So many poisons.

Posted by: jasper at July 27, 2007 10:03 AM [link]

picking up a little GFI...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 27, 2007 10:08 AM [link]

Technically, the damage is done and although we could rally 500 points on the Dow in the next few days, this market has all the signs of a major top. The internals suck, as Mark has pointed out: A/D line, Highs/Lows, Money Flow, et al.

Things ALWAYS get choppy and confusing at tops -- that's what they're supposed to do, otherwise everyone would run for the exits at the same time and there'd be no one left holding the bag.

Posted by: omphalos at July 27, 2007 10:19 AM [link]

jasper-i'm going to be selling into strength...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at July 27, 2007 10:22 AM [link]

Broker dealers and financials are either starting to base or the pros are faking us amateurs.

SLW is off the floor so far.

I'm not a chaser of the general mkt but perhaps PM's and miners in small bites at the right price.

Posted by: Craig at July 27, 2007 10:25 AM [link]

Thing is, the 200 day is not sitting resistance on kry at 3.60. I think this is why the rally was just turned away there. A decisive breach of the 3.60 level will be necessary for price improvement to continue.

Posted by: shark_attack at July 27, 2007 10:31 AM [link]

IS resistance at 3.60. (IS) not (is not)

Posted by: shark_attack at July 27, 2007 10:32 AM [link]

I see Seamus is doing well with TRA.
Me too.
I got in at 23.86, I'm happy so far. Very volatile.

Posted by: Craig at July 27, 2007 10:33 AM [link]

This is where I would pull out the trap door if I were running the February scenario. I'd drive it down real quick to this mornings lows and beyond to catch all the stops and clear everyone out.

Posted by: MarkM at July 27, 2007 10:51 AM [link]

Mark, you must have some experience in Spain running with the bulls. Right on que.
We'll see how far down they push it.

Posted by: Craig at July 27, 2007 10:59 AM [link]

You have to think like a SOB. It helps if that isn't far off the mark. ;)

Posted by: MarkM at July 27, 2007 11:11 AM [link]

2nd ave.... ...if your thought is more serious downside...quite plausible considering that 200dma's and longer term UT lines have not been breached. Transports look quite vulnerable to a long drop on a 4 yr chart. And, margin calls are still going out. wild card is the extreme p/c ratio which some sentiment tea leave readers say are never high at the beginning of a bear mkt. I may sell my transports, and return long if bounce, retracement, then back to bullish longterm trend.

Posted by: jasper at July 27, 2007 11:13 AM [link]

Hmmm, I should be okay then....LOL!

Posted by: Craig at July 27, 2007 11:19 AM [link]

Yesterday I tried to add comments later in the day, but the network here failed. Then this morning after 18 minutes of downloading mail and getting today's report started, it failed again.

Which goes to show that even in paradise not everything is perfect.

I hope to be back soon.

Posted by: Bill Cara at July 27, 2007 11:48 AM [link]

Pete or anyone else can you explain this please:

FOLLOW THE DOLLAR; IT TELLS THE STORY. Sure its fallen slightly in the last couple days, but unless it finds a way to erase the DEBT AND DEFICIT any time soon, this rise in the stock market is not anywhere near over.

thx Sto

Posted by: stocon at July 27, 2007 11:55 AM [link]

XLF just broke an intra-day Head and Shoulders....

Posted by: omphalos at July 27, 2007 11:56 AM [link]

I have been keeping an eye on MPEL. After a swift short covering binge from 11.40ish to 14.20ish a couple weeks ago, MPEL went on a big losing streak - 9 down days in a row into today.

After gapping lower yesterday, it seems to have begun basing and from a TA perspective, and looks like it could be good for a short-term trade if the markets can succesfully retest yesteradays lows.

Posted by: BillySundance at July 27, 2007 11:57 AM [link]

KRY:
I think that the individuals that are involved in this stock at the moment are trading on the fundamentals and not on the technicals. Although technicals are important, the fundamental permit story will drive this stock. It is just a matter as to whether one wants to be a part of that story.

Posted by: stktrader at July 27, 2007 11:59 AM [link]

So anybody willing to provide an upside target for SDS? Do we reach the March highs here?

Posted by: agaunv at July 27, 2007 12:00 PM [link]

Made a few pennies on the KRY "bounce". Now it's time to wait for gold to move back and that other thing to happen (if it ever does ;).

I bought MSFT today. My own personal flight to quality as I believe Vista will be a strong contributor through the end of the year.

All the same, I hedged my position by selling calls.

Posted by: number2son at July 27, 2007 12:03 PM [link]

I'm heading out soon . . . on the road . . .

Cute . . . Paulson all over the tube at the White House stressing a strong dollar . . . finger in the dyke . . Think the line on the S&P is at 1463.70, so let's call it 1460 like MarkM suggests. Looks like the trap door is open to catch the stops.

Craig, I sense you're a shorter term trader than me (right now this market benefits the ST trader), so I'd be careful with TRA.
Good luck.

Posted by: Seamus at July 27, 2007 12:05 PM [link]

FYI:
Bill just posted Cara’s Daily Commentary for July 27, 2007.
Please post any new comments here
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2007/07/caras_daily_commentary_fri_jul_3.html#more

Posted by: JogyP at July 27, 2007 12:28 PM [link]

Stocon its easy... the world economy is growing and U.S. corporations that are listed on the U.S. Stock Exchanges own assets all over the world: thus as long as the U.S. dollar is falling, the value of the assets of the U.S. corporations own outside the U.S. are growing not only from normal growth, but also from the growth of the currencies that are rising against U.S. currency.

YOU CAN'T LOSE BY FOLLOWING THE U.S. Dollar as long as the worlds economies are growing.

Posted by: Peter at July 27, 2007 2:14 PM [link]

Post a comment

Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

URL:
Remember me? YesNo

Discourse: