shark_attack begins a bellowing, chest-pounding self-congratulation for his last-night pick that KRY would indeed rally today.

(sure dude. that's mature)

You saved the best news for last, Bill. Cheers.

Ah yes, the oh so human body. I tend to forget how human it is. Take care.

Bill:
the photo of yourself and colleagues which you posted yesterday...

you look terrific!

you're a role model and an inspiration! I'm going to town today (Huntsville) to get myself some Absolut. The spirits/cranberry concoction is a staple of mine; but I use a generic brand...so I intend to adjust that aspect of my diet.

Regards,

Joey

Anyone of the mind that PMs need a breather before continuing upwards? I'm looking to enter some MORE but wanting to time it intelligently.

Almost bought SLW at 13.5 price and missed out because of some quick upwards movements in the past 2 days. Now I'm hesitant.

Venezuela catering to the Chinese? Preparing for future Chinese investment in VZ?

http://tinyurl.com/2sxzph

Fazeli—My 2 cents worth--Have long positions in SLW, but not thinking of adding at this point with RSIs across the board >70.

Somewhat speculative when you consider a foreign court, but established some smaller EGO positions in some accounts. Selling appears overdone and based on prior research reports here and elsewhere on EGO, believe risk/reward worth a shot, but do your own DD.

Two hours of swimming! An half an hr is my workout followed by deep water stretching of about 10 minutes. Very efficient, but more than that? In this two hours does this include poolside activities such as martini's or reviewing the lunch menu? Wellness center does resonate with me. The quality of yoga esque trainers has never been as deep and wide. My wife does her "practice" every morning. Without it for her,I'd be in real trouble. Personally, I desperately need to get out to my friend's farm. Detaching from the usual routine and replacing with the tranquil AND social contact is the best drug I know.

BMO initiated coverage of WGDFF at Outperform today. Stock hitting a new high at US$ 2.85. Light volume though.

Re sailing,..I keep trying to post this...I wonder if key words are triggering???

Bill - you *do* look fantastic in your pictures. I am so happy to hear of your healthy regimen, and the effects it is already having on you. I know you have at least one clinician ready to assist with work on the holistic health centre. Is it possible to reliably do web hosting based in the Bahamas? (I know you mentioned the ISP was down for 2 hours recently. I guess you could have a primary host in Bahamas and mirror sites elsewhere... )

From ETF TRENDS
(more demand for gold ahead???)
"
Despite Japan's ETFs' low performance, the country continues to embrace ETFs. The Osaka Securities Exchange recently announced it will launch a new ETF in August. The new gold price-linked ETF aims to give retail investors better access to the gold market and will track a yen-based gold price index, according to Reuters.

Could the new ETF be the golden ticket Japan has been waiting for?"

ALOHA !!

Good one Bill ... I truly believe most people have no idea of the huge stressors they live under on a daily basis simply because they aclimate to their environment. Pretty soon living in a big city with all its major perils becomes a normal way to live. We are a reflection of our environment. One thing is for sure is that "stress kills" ...

Prior to moving to Hawaii I was sick(flu, cold, etc)four or five times a year that would drag on for weeks. That was close to seven years ago and I have not been sick once since then. Just getting rid of my two hour commute did wonders for my outlook on life ... not to mention my life expectancy! Insurance actuaries show that living in Hawaii increases you life span by four years compared to living in other US states. I can certainly attest to lower stress, which I believe translates to a longer life.

When I see your photos with the emerald green and azure waters of the Bahamas I say to myself ... "I know those waters ... I see them everyday ... Thank God for that!" It is only when you experience bad health that you realize what is most important in life! Financially speaking "bad health" accounts for the greatest majority of bankruptcies here in the USA. Go to any bankruptcy hearing in any bankruptcy court in the USA and you will quickly understand this. I won't even mention lost work hours due to illness. Seems US businesses would consider that when they chose a location for their headquarters. With modern communications I don't see there is an advantage to locate offices in big cities any more. If I were head of a major corporation in the USA I would start considering moving to rural areas where real estate is cheaper and living/commuting is far easier. Must be some sort of status thing... New York-Paris-London-Hong Kong-Sydney-Hilo !!!

I have personal experience as my cousin who is in his fifties died of lung cancer and he never smoked, but he did live his entire life in Los Angeles. That was one of the big reasons I moved out of Orange County in the 1980s. I love how many people will spend thousands of dollars every year on health food and jogging all the while breathing in carcinogens of the big city lifestyle and accepting the Russian roulette of commuting and the high density population blight! I always get backlash for saying that ... I know "Thats where the jobs are ..." Is that it or is it that people insist on living LARGE and refuse to downsize their "image"? I think a lot of it is psychological in that people get addicted to the drama and distractions of big city life. To each his or her own ... There are better choices out there ... You are an example of that Bill! Congratulations on your excellent choice ...

WGDFF ticking right along. Multi year high today. Glad I loaded up prior to the last NR. Assays due soon. More trucks delivered etc.

Bill do you intend to take a position in Western at some point?

Watching WGI today and I feel like a CNBC Reporter - "Come on WGI $3.00(CDN), you can do it". All I need is a ticker across my PC with a countdown and I'd fit right in!

jasper,
All these "gold-linked" securities are extremely gold-negative. This Japanese ETF is just another example.

Another egregious example is the new TOCOM "mini-gold" future. It is right up there with the COMEX "mini-gold" as a blatantly anti-gold "gold product." Investors going long these kinds of investments are cutting their own throats, financially speaking.

I'll have more information on this soon.

kaimu,
You are so right, as usual (well, maybe except for that Molycor doubling in a month thing, but I won't mention that :-) )

The NY Times just did a cover article on 'healthy' people getting lung problems here in NYC. One of the finest new parks in the city runs along the Hudson, connecting Battery Park with Upper Manhattan. It's truly marvelous. It also features a bike/jogging path a few feet from the West Side Highway. Regular exercisers are developing serious lung problems.

I agree with you that companies should locate elsewhere. Population shifts to urban areas aside, I had read that there is a trend to locate companies (banks and law firms and a few other excepted) out of the city, while at the same time more HQs are in the city. So there are larger numbers of company presences here, but fewer people in each office. The big cheeses feel a need to be here where the 'action' is. Truth is, it is a very different life here for the very wealthy. If your lux condo and your high end health club have air filtering systems, and you can escape to the Hamptons or elsewhere on weekends, and leave the peons like me to suck the fumes, you don't develop lung problems. And if you get around town in a car service, you won't develop ear problems from the crazy loud subway system, etc.

I really don't understand why so many companies need to be here when elsewhere you can get land, educated, healthier people (especially psychologically speaking!) and other resources much cheaper and pay far, far lower taxes.

I can't wait to leave to go just about anywhere. Except Jersey, where all the local companies want to stuff their back office minions. But for now it is what it is, and I am where I am, for a few reasons. But if anyone needs an email guy in Idaho, Vancouver, the Bahamas, or just about anywhere in South America, I know a good one!

And lastly, Bill, I started to write a post yesterday comparing your picture in the banner to the picture with your friends. It's like two different guys. Truthfully I used to worry about all you were doing and your health. Now I don't, so much. It's like night and day. I wonder if your family notices, also?

regards, all,

Mike
NYC

GOLD is where it is at!

Gold broke through resistance at 670 and it looks like it is going past 700 in the next couple of weeks. As for oil. I am thinking that it double tops at 79.86 or a few points higher in the next 6 weeks.

on sailing,
I deeply miss my sailing days. When the main sail was pulled snug, the boat thrust forward, and all the sights and sounds of land fade...a golden moment. If I may go further back in time, the first and last time I was in the Bahamas I was 12 yrs old. My family went there to the Grand Bahama Jack Tar resort.

ALOHA !!

LR GROUP UPDATE

Back in Feb I mentioned the LR GROUP(Larry Reaugh) mining/explorer incubator as a smaller version of the HD(Hunter Dickinson) GROUP. There are five companies in the LR GROUP.

Adanac Moly-AUA 125%
MolyCor Gold-MOR 75%
Goldrea-GOR 5%
Roucher Deboule-RDH 360%
Tribune Uranium-TCB 35%

Combined they are up 120% ...

I have not bought into Goldrea just due to the China risk factor! I feel a crumbling US Dollar will bring on repercussions from angry large holders of US Dollars, which China is one and so is Venezuela! Am I off base? Time will tell ... but not my hard-earned cash!

ALOHA !

MikeNYC ... The month is not up yet!

UNG-third shot at 43 in a week...may require "news" for it to take off...
WGDFF-paring back on the analyst upgrade...
still debating ultrashorts, at this point looking at SRS and staying away from the broad indices/indexes (when did they start saying "dived" instead of "dove"?)...

TA gurus I use have these targets:
1600-1625 s&p
14200-14500 for dow...not far away.

I don't use them per se for stock pics but guidance is not bad, lean strong conservative.

Is a blow off going on?
698 next stop?
Of the last three rally runs, the first two took almost exactly 8 weeks, the last one took about 6 weeks. In this fourth one, we're about 3 weeks old. Quite exciting.

Mike NYC

Can you post the link to the NYT article that you referenced? I couldn't find it. Thanks

2nd_ave, can you explain paring back on an analyst upgrade? Isn't that a good sign?

Mike
NYC

Are the shorts throwing in the towel?
Are a few rain makers ganging up on the shorts?

AdamG, found it on the International Herald Tribune site. I wonder if the Times carried it but somehow doesn't have it on their site because it's an IHT story? I have noticed the same story being carried on both sites pretty often. Anyway, it deals with pollution and exercise in general, not with a NY focus. But I know I saw some NY elements when I read it originally. Maybe a sidebar or one of the other papers picked it up and rewrote it as a NY story.

Anyway, here it is. The physiological elements of sucking exhaust while working out are there, even if it doesn't have the NY focus. Dunno if that is what you wanted. I like the picture. Jogger with an inhaler while an 18-wheeler rumbles by. Nice.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/12/news/air.php

Anyone care to make a wag at target for .xau?
(177)

ahem

quality of life/where to live issues discussed today. Cannot (though I should) resist a plug for the hometown.

"The Rochester Region was recently ranked #1 for Overall Quality of Life among metros with a population of more than 1 million. Source: Expansion Management, May/June 2007"

We have Canada geese.

Now that Kodak has gone down the tubes (locally, anyway)air quality is much improved. Fed up with paying taxes, they actually dynamited some buildings where all of our dads used to work!

mike-no cause for alarm...i always think of analyst upgrades as occasion for previously uncommitted buyers to jump in, which can then temporarily cause a price spike, allowing you to sell into it and reload again after it drops...not saying it's going to happen this time...

Aussieontop:

Please, can we revisit your post from last night...notably, the following:

"By using RSI Stochastics and waiting for the trend to show signs of reversal, you can set very close stops on entry followed by trailing stops as the price moves up to create a very attractive risk reward ratio.

I am also playing with the idea of selling a half position at any movement above the purchase price equal to the stop loss so that risk is reduced to Zero (unless there is a gap down or significant slippage)."

Q1. Re "selling a half position at any movement above the purchase price equal to the stop loss"...assume for example, your pp is $40, with a stop loss at $38...do I understand you to mean that you would sell a half position at $42?
Q2. How do you set your stop?
Q3(a),(b) You set a close stop on entry...how close? Do you expand the stop as the share price rises, or maintain a fixed stop?

Regards

Joey

GOOG missed and is already down 40 after hours. The spinmasters have their work cut out for them saving GOOG, AMZN, BIDU, EBAY, etc before morning. "Must contain . . . must contain." Weak stocks coming up on Q2 earnings--like RSH--should get a thrashing too. Could the whole market tank for a bit?

Oil forecast from CIBC World Markets. Lots of good stuff on production/demand growth, etc.

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/sjul07.pdf

Shark:
Good call on KRY. But did you day trade it?

Jasper & Joey,

The starting point for me was to use David's charts that are posted on the blog every day to identify the stocks with RSI D/W/M < 30 and then use yahoo and Stockharts to for my setups.

I mainly buy stocks based on fundumentals or rumours but want to get better than that. I took Bill's advice and read "Welcome to my Trading Room" and "Entries & Exits" both by Alexander Elder. Both excellent and highly recomended books.

I wanted to see what would happen if I mechanically traded a system based on Bills guidelines. By paper trading and taking bits and pieces that appealed to me out of the books, I tried a number of different ideas for stops and exits. Most of them did reasonable well even though by mechanically following the system I entered trades I felt very uncomfortable with.

I found that I could keep a very tight stop to reduce my losses significantly in the losing trades without compromising the gains.

Using Bill's advice, we look for RSI D/W/M < 30. Then we wait for the trend to reverse as identified by the Daily RSI7 going above 30 as well as the Fast Stochastics to go above 20. Then the next day I put in a buy order if the SP goes above the previous days high and set a stop just below the previous days low which is usually only 1-3% for the Cara 100 stocks depending on volatility that day.

This way if you are correct you are in with the trend and you follow up with a trailing stop. I have not determined the best trailing stop that suits me best yet but I like the idea of a 2*ATR trailing stop and expanding it to 3*ATR & 4 ATR as the SP rises.

you may be interested in the following link

http://www.pro-fundity.com/archedits/080400b.html

or

http://www.trading-plan.com/money_stoploss_volatility.html

Take a look at HOV. There is no way I would enter this stock right now, but I learnt a hell of a lot about my rules by paper trading it. You learn from your mistakes which leads to a better trading plan.

1st lesson was to make sure you wait until the trend is reversed before you buy stock. By waiting until RSI and Stochastics reversed, prevented me from entering the trade while it kept tracking down.

2nd lesson was that it is best to keep a very tight stop. If you are wrong on the short term trend. you are stopped out very early. I used to worry about this aspect because I did not want to get stopped out and then have the trend reverse again and miss out on the run up. But by settin close stops, if you get stopped out then in most cases I looked at, the RSI drops below 30 again and you can sit back and wait for another buy signal.

When I looked back over some of the other trades, this method seems to cut my losses significantly with little effect on the gains.
I just find this more appealing than setting a 6% or 8% stop.

With reference to

Q1. Re "selling a half position at any movement above the purchase price equal to the stop loss"...assume for example, your pp is $40, with a stop loss at $38...do I understand you to mean that you would sell a half position at $42?

The answer is yes

Please note that these observations were taken from a very small number of trades and so I am still cautious and I expect to continuously optimise the my trading plans as I gain experience. But my overall goal is to keep it failry simple and concentrate on end of day trading rather than interday trading.

Actually I didn't trade it. I have come to the conclusion this this whole KRY business is impeding my progress as a trader (I only really started this fairly recently after reading for years). Trading isn't about permits and bizarre banana republic governments....I am looking for methodologies that are repeatable and transferrable...