Bill,
I commented Saturday on the weakness of the Durable Goods report that came out Thursday.
The news is so dominated by Credit disaster
that Investors are forgetting about the weak
economy.
We have a weak consumer and now disappointing activity in the Investment side.
The last pillar of this economy is job creation.
If the unemployment rate goes up on a year-over-year basis, a recession will follow.
I estimated that a payroll of 143,000 is necessary for the Unemployment rate not to go up.

2nd_ave,

BMD at 3.11 now. Are you a buyer here?

RSH down 13% after earnings. SBUX and MIPS report this week too.

Peter,

Don't you think a 99% success rate is a bit on the high side?

I was wrong on AUY, right on GSS. They're both doing great.

A very depressing day for me. Ingmar Bergman is dead.

I think KRY may get a little rally in here

Mrmockbird: I don't know how or what they base that claim on.

I would suggest that with market volitility their success goes way down. But again, I don't follow their picks. I will now state: "I don't like how they come by them".

Forget about their claims. As I see it, the real value in their technology, is in how it can be used to do searches in eps, growth, Value etc. to find stocks.

ALOHA !!

Just back from Kona and it seems while I was gone there was a DOW thrashing!! Those who wondered if gold and PM miners would also go down in such an environment got their answer! Of course with the help of the PPT gold can never be seen as a "safe harbor"! Gold the anit-fiat competitor to all global currencies. Once again, as in the 1928, the "money spigot" was the stock market so I am sure the rise will resume in the DOW soon. Nothing much changes except names and places! Fundamentally the global markets are riding on "liquidity"(aka: debt) and so too are the currencies. In fact rising prices whether they be stock markets or gas or medicine only mean purchasing power of global currencies are falling ... all paper(debt) weighted against other paper(debt) ... No country has a falling M3. Smart money is rolling over into hard assets that cannot be printed or bundled into worthless infinite debt obligations! Such is the hallmark of fiat where there are no reliable or stable standards and measures. Under such conditions CDOs can easily be disquised as having "virtual" worth, like a dot.com(another debt vehicle of the past). Inflation can be hidden in many ways where the public actuals believes they are getting richer not poorer, which is what BIG government and Wall Street needs in order to peddle their debt machines.

CONSUMER REPORT: While in Kona I spoke with a few deep sea fishing Captains and they say they have never seen the business so bad. Many just packing it in ... Some hoping the Kona International Bill Fishing Tounament starting August 6 will revive things a bit. Kona is rated as one of the cheapest places on Earth, next to Cabo, to go deep sea fishing. Any such downsizing means the bar at the Honokohau Marina will be a little lighter on fish talk! The one that got away ... Bruddah ... Where is deep sea fishing listed on the BLS Labor Reports?

I stick with gold/silver and PM shares because they are the closest thing to real asstes and real money no matter what the DOW or the BSE does! Reality and truth are sorely lacking in our World today ... Sooner than later that will be reflected in the global markets.

global chill . .

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IG31Dj03.html

jogyp-sorry for the late response...not selling is how i would put it...i have a sizable position already, and right now i'm diversifying back into a few other things in the energy sector (tso,rig)...

2nd- thanks, I added some at 3.11.

Looking for a greener end today, especially for tech and financials

kaimu,
This particular consumer has pulled his head so far into his shell I'm practically looking out the back. Not that I'm a proxy for the masses, by any means.

Oh, a second tropical depression forming in the Atlantic/Eastern Caribbean. The first one I've ben keeping an eye for a few days and is off the Bahamas and will likely track out to sea, affecting only shipping lanes. The second, newer one, well, here's Jeff Gammons:

"The new and more impressive tropical disturbance (invest 99L) is located about 900 miles east of the southern Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea. This is looking much better this morning with a increase in deep convection and cyclonic turning structure in the satellite presentation. Some of the computer models bring this new area to hurricane strength in the Caribbean in the coming week. This system will have to be closely monitored for further develop and later down the road if it does develop for any possible threats in the Florida to Gulf coast area’s."

Near month NatGas up .291 so far today. I wonder if this is why?

Mike
NYC

if tech and financials lead a return to the highs from here it will have faked me out completely...i know markets climb on skepticism, but i'm still worried and unlike the last two times i'm hesitant to buy into it...

MikeNYC,

This consumer is such a cheapskate, I crash funeral receptions for the free drinks.

This will be my last post on this board.

I have known Bill for about 15 years, and I recieved a message from him saying someone didn't like my posting style here. And they went on to say I was touting my own services here.

While I take exception to these comments. I will say that Bill can verify, as he has already stated, we met because of my stock picking abilities and co-wrote a stock market newsletter together based on my stock picks. Bill can verify the success of my stock-picks.

I posted here to keep you from making a very grave mistake, from selling off your investments or becoming bearish in the current market. As well, I was beginning to share with you how I currently am finding Blue-chip stocks that are good value, with very good upside potential; which is what Bill asked me to do.

Some people are so filled with their own ego they can't take someone disagreeing with them.

I mentioned you are entitled to sell your investments, but personally I would not be turning bearish on this market; as I STRONGLY believe that is a very big mistake.

Peter

Peter,

Don't let public opinion dissuade you from expressing yourself...I sure as heck don't.

Peter,
We all don't have to necessarily like each other too much. We can still disagree and keep posting our thoughts!

While some of your comments about the dollar may have ticked off people, your opinion is still valuable. Off course you have different writing style than many of the regulars here. It may be a matter of time getting used to it.

Keep posting please.

Peter,

I think the majority of readers here really enjoy hearing your thoughts. The fact that our opinions and experiences are vastly different is really the glue that binds. I hope you decide to post again.

Also, Jogy - thanks for the heads up on BMD, got in at 3.15 and looking great ever since.

Voila...you got your KRY rally

Peter -

You certainly got me thinking. My posts to you have been meant in the vein of: what is your logic? I haven't fully grasped it yet, but hope you'll keep coming back with answers and ideas.

Peter,
I'm with those posting. I want to hear different ideas and what others are thinking and doing. I don't necessarily want to hear about VV, BUT, I DO want to hear your latest buys, sells, and why you are doing what you are doing.

From that info I can track what you are doing and decide if it's something I should also be looking to do.

I have found that's the best way to weed through the various approaches to the market presented here.

For instance, when somebody posts BMD is on sale for 3.11, we have a good idea where they got in and more or less why. We can do our DD, chart it, and see where the general market is heading and if we think this would be an entry for ourselves.

Since we are all using similar tools and no real special software, we all tend to speak the same language. When you showed up speaking VV, maybe it took some of us a little by surprise.

That doesn't mean you shouldn't speak, it just means it might take some of us longer to understand you, your motivations, and what you are saying.

Please, keep posting. We all can learn something from one another.

In the last 6 years or so, when new lows spiked to levels seen last week, the market has bottomed for the time being. Todays' action tells Simpleton that Peter may be on to something.

Oh yeah, Simpleton looking for trendline breaks.

Guess my last comment (week or so ago) on "gut check time" was on the mark. It also was the low in the dollar.

At times like this we need a diversity of views more than ever. If they're presented honestly, and argued with civility, I don't see how anyone can have cause for complaint.

FWIW, I hardly ever see anything here that I don't regard as worthwhile, even (and maybe even especially) if I don't agree with it.

I sent one of those mails to Bill, because I didn't want to start up anything here, and I'll repeat it here so everyone knows where I'm coming from:

Peter, I think you come across with a tone resembling a cross between Cramer and some kind of smart-aleck Yahoo Message board poster. That's what I told Bill, and that I thought it really wasn't helping the discourse here.

You waded in waving loonies around calling Americans some kind of idiots because our moronic leaders are driving the buck into the ground. I didn't vote for these guys and most of us here from the US don't need to be lectured to as if we're somehow complicit in how our currency and country are being buried alive by these criminals. Then you went on to scream about "buy the market on a downward break!!!" The only thing missing was a big red "Buy Buy Buy" button and some sound effects. Then there was the KRY slam. I'm not a fan of that stock either. But there's a better way to get that point across. As was brought up before when someone slammed it, there are people here with serious money at play there, and to them it's no joke. (Though I think if it's money that means that much, that kind of place is not where it should go, so we probably agree there.)

So, that's my point. I didn't want to bring it up here directly as I didn't want to contribute to some kind of slagging back and forth. But a poison pen note booting you off the board wasn't the intent, either.

I think you have sometimes have a dismissive, occasionally rude, and potentially incendiary tone. The fact that most people here don't usually communicate that way is one of the great things about this blog, at least to me.

The advertising complaint is just off-base, in my opinion. If you've got some tool that's great, whatever, post about it. I think someone may have misinterpreted your mentioning some product as an ad, but that's not the way I saw it.

Anyway, you're a better stock picker than me. Almost anyone here is. So stick around. But can't you chill out a little bit?

Regards, all,

Mike
NYC

Good grief. Must we go through THIS again?

I am not sympathetic to the bullish case for equities here. I trade it like I see it. But I can certainly tolerate hearing the bullish view if well reasoned. And if I find views or arguments specious, I ignore them or point out the flaws. As most of you know, I am not exactly a wilting flower.

g034, I have shared the charts with the board that show the historical precedents last Thursday. If not mistaken, I think I even tuned the oscillators for them. The new lows data was even more extreme than 2004, the two lows in 2005, and 2006 according to my data.

Regarding the markets today, the longs got just about exactly what the doctor ordered. Nice build all day with financials coming through. If the close had been stronger it would have been perfect.

And MikeNYC, I appreciate your candor and your willingness to stand up out of your chair. That is tough to do my friend, even in the anonymity of the internet. With that said, I hope that Peter continues posting here.

ALOHA !!

While in Kona I caught MAD MONEY and Cramer was telling his loyal followers to avoid any stocks that are tied directly to interest rates or debt or real estate. He put up a list of his recommended sectors to rotate into and "miners" was on his list. BOOOOOOYAH !!!

The fact of the matter is that the US government cannot afford to have the stock market drop any more. I believe the BLS Labor Reports are as much BS as the CPI and the Oil Reserves and the GDP. What is really happening behind the scenes is labor is crashing and when a worker leaves a company's payroll and signs onto the US government payroll(unemployment and welfare)the US government gets hit with a double whammy. They lose the payroll taxes on that employee as well as income tax and assume the ex-employee as yet another liability to the swelling BIG government teat! When will the BLS start reporting workers who have run out of unemployment benefits and are unemployed on food stamps and welfare or in jail?

All government levels will be experiencing tax revenue shortfalls due to the real estate slump. To have a stock market slump at the same time would spell disaster. To keep tax revenues coming into the US government they need the stock market pumping out taxable profits. They also need to slowly renege on social security benefits and raise excise taxes. Inflationary pressure also hits the US government just as hard as it does Joe SixPack! This is why Wall Street can never allow the twin wars of Iraq and Afghanistan to ever be priced into the stock market or the USDX. To keep the Baby Boomers off US government welfare in 2008 the stock market can never go down otherwise all those 401ks being cashed out for losses would cripple tax revenues even further. My Father always told me the US government does not produce anything other than "hot air" ... never has ... never will! The US government needs tax revenues to always be increasing otherwise it ceases to be relavent. Taxes are the State and Federal government's life blood! Without rising tax revenues all that is left is "printing" ...

It's 1928 all over again ...

jogyp-nice move on BMD...

I appreciate that numerous contributors on this site communicate publicly which stocks they are holding, buying, trading and why. I appreciate even more that this is not a tout board and that the level of discourse is sophisticated and civil. Peter made his point that he values VectorVest. That's cool. I'm not personally interested in VV (and Peter has said it's not for everyone) but I do want to hear what Peter has to say about stocks and the market. PS: I wasn't invited to the party today ... maybe tomorrow!

g034, fully agree. Kaimu also nicely called the USD being heavily defended at 80. Thank you both.

Those on the food producers who bought Thursday, it been quite a remarkable gain on TRA and SDA. Here's some info on SDA from The Motley:

"Sadia, established in Brazil in 1944, is one of the world's leading producers of chilled and frozen poultry and swine products. The company's offerings are winning over a growing number of consumers worldwide and services more than 200 clients, as far away as Europe (which accounts for 25% of revenues) and the Middle East (23%). Export sales grew by more than 45% during the quarter, helped along by a 16.9% price increase that management pushed through.

Back home, Sadia's domestic market share jumped to more than 82% in the second quarter, up from about 72% year over year.

The company's impressive results occurred despite a 9.4% appreciation in the local currency relative to the U.S. dollar. Management cited lessening fears over avian flu as a catalyst for increased demand for its poultry products, whose average export price rose more than 27% year over year. "

Some (myself included) believe that food producers are just in the beginning of their cycle - for years to come. Long SDA, PDA, TRA, DBA.

Si02, kaimu, 80 wasn't just defended. About a week ago or more Antal Fekete called DX < 80 a massive bear trap. Looks like it worked out that way to me. No doubt there were some hurting dollar shorts out there last week.

MarkM:
wanting to learn from you...
from your post this morning - GOOG (up on the day) and AAPL (down) ...
why do you characterize them as 'tells'?
regards
joey

My "The Foods" portfolio also include pot.to, mon, afn-un.to, cresy; they are food-related, not necessarily food producers.

Cognizant to report Wednesday pre market. earnings estimates for 2Q are $500 mill, look for them to beat again $505 to $510. They have beat 10 quarters going forward now. CTSH is a Cara 100 (I think...might have to go back and check that for sure). If the Dow goes south Wednesday, so will CTSH.
I hold a position.

Hmm. Very interesting. NYSE Bullish Percents DECLINED today.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPNYA&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p00000704543

So did the Summation Index:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p99275867836

New lows (NYSE) increased over Friday's levels:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYLOW&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p03529668250

The Adv/Decline Line improved a bit:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p68797664350

Net New Highs-New Lows weakened:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p83657031226

This on a day the Dow was up 93 and the SPX up 15!

The information is always in the DIVERGENCES.

i just don't think the sell-off is done...does anyone know what the short interest is today relative to late February? the shorts put in a floor last time, but i don't think they're around to help us out this time. willing to be wrong...but still think raising cash is the right move...

Many breadth indicators are at very poor levels- that is they have trended lower and are at extreme negative measurements. Some have reached extremes taken on absolute terms while others are at extreme RSI readings. Look at stocks trading above 20, 50 and 200 day moving average as a great example... how often have these levels been reached since 2000, all at the same time? Not often.

These extreme readings have more often than not led to higher markets near term- but certainly not always.

But even in a bear market rallies are usually seen from these extremes in negative breadth, so I would be in the camp that feels this would be a poor time to sell short term... unless you are failing the 'sleep test', in which case action is required to reduce the emotions.

I'd be waiting to see the quality of the rally out and the test before I'd have greater confidence intermediate term.

Short interest ratio NYSE as of 7/20? 8.32.
Short interest ratio NASDAQ as of 7/24? 4.66
Both have risen through 2007 (as have odd lot shorts).

(from sentimentrader.com)

Bank of America (BAC) was mentioned in the newsletter Bill gave us. Looks like it is a good buy if the RSI dips some more then comes back up. Good support at this level as well. Under 10 P/E!

i'd like nothing better than to come up with a reason to buy right now...but there are just too many "buying opportunity" headlines out there today...so to be honest, i think it goes down...but happy to be wrong...

Another day, another lender delivers a news bomb. Today it was MGIC's turn:

http://tinyurl.com/2c4ccs

Shorting these guys has been a pain in the keester. I've been playing hedged short positions profitably, but the downside is that you miss the big moves. But the bigger and scarier downside is that if you ignore this type of thing is the exception and not the rule and that times like this make you take unreasonable risks.

Still short CFC and loving it, baby!

Si02 As we've dicussed here before, the "AG" arena as I call it and "The Foods" as you call it, are in the early stages. One of a number of factors is the growing middle classes of India and China are increasing their food demands and consumption including beef, pork and poultry.

AG watchlist includes not only food producers, but fertilizers, farm equipment, farm land, dairy products and more. Holding some long AG positions.

I was out for most of the day and will also be out most of Tuesday and Wednesday, checking in for short periods. Good luck to all.

Mark, thx for the helpful links. Worthwhile bookMarking. (LOL)

chas To add to your post on BAC, it also has a @ 5.4% dividend. Been staying away from financials for awhile now, but watching the RSI of this one.

ALOHA !!

Watching financial TV and reading the WSJ we have "experts" of all shapes and sizes telling us not to worry everything is "contained"! In the past we had the same "experts" ...

THE EXPERTS SPEAK ...
From 1927 to 1933 ... six years ...

READ ON:
1927--"We will not have any more crashes in our time"---John Maynard Keynes

Jan.12 1928--"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fools paradise,and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future"--
E.Simmons--president New York Stock Exchange

Dec.4 1928--"No congress of the U.S. ever assembled,on surveying the state of the Union,has met with a more pleasing prospect then that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment--and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace,the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding"--Pres.Calvin Coolidge-

Sept.5 1929--"There may be a recession in stock prices,but not anything in the nature of a crash"
---Irving Fisher PHD. Professor of economics-Yale University

Oct.24 1929--"This crash is not going to have much effect on business"--Aurther Reynolds-Chairman Continental Illinois Bank

Oct.25 1929--(Black Friday) "There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday--I have no fear of another comparable decline"--A.W. Loasby--Pres. of the equitable Trust Co.

Nov.1929--"The end of the decline of the stock market will not be long,only a few more days at the most."--Irving Fisher

Dec.1929--"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism--I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring,and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress"--
Andrew W Mellon--U.S.Secretary of the Treasury

May 1930--"While the crash only took place six months ago,I am convinced we have now passed through the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover.There has been no significant bank or industrial failure.That danger too is safely behind us"--President Herbert Hoover

March 9 1933--Executive Order Of The President Of The United States--
"By virtue of the authority vested in me by---The Act of March 9 1933--In which Congress declared a serious emergency exists,I as President do declare that the national emergency still exists;that the continued private hoarding of gold and silver by subjects of the United States poses a grave threat to peace,equal justice,and the well being of the United States;and that appropriate measures must be taken immediately to protect the interests of our people--

All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed,pending action in the due course of law. All sales or purchases of such gold and silver within the borders of the United States and its territories and all foreign exchange transactions or movements of such metals across the border are hereby prohibited--

Your possession of these proscribed metals and/or your maintanence of a safe deposit box to store them is known by the government from bank and insurance records.Therefore be advised that your vault box must remain sealed,and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the "Internal Revenue Service".END

ALOHA !!

We have the BLS JOBS REPORT and then we have this ... Jeez, its hard to know who to believe? NOT!!

US June newspaper help-wanted ads dip to 49-yr low
Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:00AM EDT

More Business & Investing News... NEW YORK, July 26 (Reuters) - The number of help-wanted ads in U.S. newspapers fell in June to a 49-year low, a private research group said on Thursday.

The Conference Board said its gauge measuring help-wanted ad volume was 26 in June, the lowest since July 1958. It was 32 a year earlier.

"Already, there are signs that job advertising volume is edging a little lower -- with very slight decreases in each of the past two months," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the Conference Board, in a statement.

Link: http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSNAT00298720070726

It may be awhile before the USD breaks below 80 and stays there longer than a few nanoseconds, but I still think the yen is the key. BOJ meets end of August and it looks like they might raise rates for the first time in a while. If so, I'd anticipate some unwinding by the hedgies including those who throw out everything when the loans are due.

NZDJPY chart is the tell. Scaled into and still maintaining FXY position. Acknowledge the Fed will resist, but unsure if they'll be able to hold 80 line by end of year. It's my hedge. Conditions can change and if so, I'll change. Just my 2 cents. Good night.

Hulbert update on gold-timing sentiment: http://tinyurl.com/2zxsg6

not what i would call good news...

Re "The Experts Speak:" Well I'm no "expert," but I see a big decline in the market over the next few months (LOL)...

1 month - 1.5 Bil lost.

Is that a lot?

Mike
NYC

Hedge fund Sowood suffers 50 pct loss, to wind down
Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:58PM EDT

By Svea Herbst-Bayliss

BOSTON, July 30 (Reuters) - Hedge fund Sowood Capital told investors on Monday that it would shut down after losing half of its assets on soured bond market bets, becoming the first-high profile fund forced out of business by recent market turmoil.

The Boston-based fund, which managed money for Harvard University and other prominent clients, saw assets dwindle to roughly $1.5 billion from $3.0 billion in less than four weeks.

Its Sowood Alpha Fund Ltd. declined approximately 57 percent during the month, while the Sowood Alpha Fund LP dropped approximately 53 percent, fund manager Jeff Larson wrote to clients late on Monday.

Kaimu -

Could the drop in newspaper help wanted ads be,in part, due to monster.com, craigslist, etc.?

I have found print classified ads to be worthless these days compared to internet-based classified ads ...

Re: Jobs: Monster.com is laying off 800 people. I see help-wanted signs everywhere in the the service industry. Based on that unscientific "survey," I'd tend to believe the low unemployment statistics.

Amendment: There may soon be rising unemployment in the want-ad business. ;-)

futures look good...planning to sell (tso, rig) into it...and looking for opportunities to take the short side...

Here is a link to a brilliant documentary film, "Zeitgeist", that should be viewed by any and all concerned about liberty, economic well-being, and the turmoil of this era. Warning; the film is controversial and seemingly bleak until the final denouement. It's also long, approximately 2 hours. But push on through--it is worth it!

http://tinyurl.com/2zfgcb

Re: Jobs: Monster.com is laying off 800 people

This is probably why:
http://www.craigslist.org/about/job.boards.html

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/08/06/100141309/?postversion=2007072609

Market is looking STRRRRONG today!
Looking to cash in on the rally in Financials.

Re BMD: http://canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=bmd

latest insider trades show sales of 25,000 shares between $3.67CDN and $3.80CDN (approximately $3.30USD and $3.42USD) July 19 and 20...

...can't argue with raising cash today...or should i say, this morning...not feeling confident about this afternoon...

2nd, you're scaring me, your aftn selloff predictions have been prescient. I think the period of tranquility will be just long enough to bring in many new longs prior to the resumption of the drop, if any. The market is, as one of the wizards put it, a device that fools the largest number of participants possible.

Also, using monster.com is the most horrible way to try to get a job. If you've tried it, you know what I mean. And that stupid company shouldn't even HAVE 800 employees. It's a website, for Heaven's sake! Another thing that disgusts me about them is, if your an employer needing to chat you get to talk with American customer service. If, on the other hand, you are a peasant wandering the feifdom looking for work, YOU get to talk to some lady in India reading from a manual.

I read that craigslist is 6 employees that have an office in an old house... genius

Actually, THAT was your KRY rally!

2nd,
Not listening to msm, but my fido screen is green. Relief, so far. If the 70% equities holds, hard part will be deciding what to do with the balance without chasing. Funny how I've gotten sidetracked into stocks when my original plan was half broad etf indices and the other half split between income and more focused etfs. Random Roger Nusbaum has an intersting post this morning about an interview done with the fellow who wrote Black Swan. This is what he does:
90% into t-bills from various countries and then with the other 10%, the amount you can stand to lose, you should just let 'er rip. Just go hog wild.
A successful investor I know has done this for years. He feeds income from bonds that he doesn't need into highly speculative stock. Amazing what that 10 percent did. More than a few years back he put it into qualcom.

DXPE:
It may be a falling knife, down 22% on bad earnings.
I took a small position at 34.4.

jasper-if i were you, i'd be clearing the table on this rally..JMHO

Bill, what is your view on the length and percentage fall in both gold and the XAU once the cycle peak of 2002 and 2007 is completed? Many thanks for your thoughts.

2002 TO 2007

Re: $BPNYA-
I'll add this chart...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=%24BPNYA,P

trend broken...money managed by Dorsey, Wright and those influenced by DWA would be hedged or out or in defensive mode...

regards
joey

I wonder sometimes about the emotional relationship some people have to stocks and/or their own analysis of them. I think some people are too hesitant to sell rally's thinking that if it goes higher, it's a sign of failure or, even worse, an unfixable problem. This is nonsense. The corollary to this is the idea that when prices have fallen a lot, that there is, the amateur thinks, more risk, not less. Only by selling the significant rallys can the active guy or girl get set up to buy the valleys when they come. The way you buy dictates the way you sell, and vice versa, interestingly enough

Exuberant days are sell days. On the other hand there could be upside here, so if you aren't clearing the table you should be resetting your stops tighter or using trailing stops to capture this rebound and protect from the rally running out of gas and taking your profits.

I'm with 2nd. This action seems a little too convenient. I'm suspicious when even Bloomberg has a ticker saying "analysts" say this is a buying opportunity. CNBC must be a blathering pit about now. Happy to not watch it.

BTW, financials are still sucking. XLF is up maybe 1% on whipped air.

Birinyi note yeterday pointing out that the 10-day cum a/d line read of -11,025 was the 3rd worse in their data. Top ten worse:

8/4/98
8/31/98
9/20/02
7/22/02
5/10/04
9/1/98
9/24/01
7/27/07
7/23/02
9/21/01

Avg return 1 month later 6.62%
Negative returns 2 (-8.31 and -2.49)
Positive returns 7

At extremes the NYA vs 50 ema has been helpful-
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nya50r

GS can't hold it's lead, and LEH went negative....

error, sorry.

strike 9/20/02
s/b 9/20/01

2nd,
Appreciate your caution. S&P tested june lows, good chance we go back to 200dma. If we cross that one, a lot of exit plans are designed around it.
On a different note, since you seem to be open to varied commentary, may I suggest William Dirlam's weekly review. Google Moose Index. Besides Bill, I've never read anyone that puts togther TA and world macros as well. Then again, I may find it easy to admire others who pursue the big picture.

2nd, I owe you a drink...

GS went negative by a buck fitty already, this morning looks like it was a selling oppty in financials. LEH was at a high that was 5 percent higher than here.

Turnabout: Fair play?

craig-does that mean you cashed out this morning?

Sold the pop and went short the Russell. I have a nice 65% gain staring at me on the options. ;)

UNG-looking to re-enter if it drops >4%...

Sold:
BMD trade bought yesterday @3.10 sold 3.32
SLW
GDX

Now reloading small holding of SLW @ 13.75, will scale back as it goes down.
Will reload PM's and miners on good dips.

It's fun selling, isn't it?

Yes my friend, and I prefer to buy drinks in the Bahamas!

I'm still in WGDFF, a few shares of SLW and PGH (a Canadian oil trust) with good dividends.

Hold Gammon and GLD in the IRA, a bit underwater, so will stay put there. Had a big runup with a Middleby buy @58 and change and sold over $64 in this rally. I would have liked to have held it, but I think (hope?) it goes on sale again.

Some miners are firming up a bit here, although I don't trust this market at all right now.

Nice move, MarkM.

I've got an eyeball on Parker Drilling (PKD). The stock has sold off while oil reaches new highs. They report earnings tomorrow.

I'm also looking for buying opportunities in tech ... a small fry like HLIT.

I'm also eyeing ESLR and feeling like a contrarian given the poor performance of small caps and the money to be had shorting the index.

My read was that 13500 was going to be met with some selling. It absorbed that nicely.

Gotta go get the girls.

XAU is trying to look strong, but the RSI still looks shakey to me. Stoch is good, MACD positive. I just don't know....

Gold and silver aren't blazing....XAU needs them to run.