Hey Bill

For the most part Gold is acting as a currency as most commodities are and as long as the U.S. Dollar keeps falling Gold should keep rising.

Looking at your gold charts on Saturday show that Gold is getting ready for its next leg up. I am looking for Gold to take out new highs by early next year.

Moin from Germany,

I´m shocked.... :-)

Looks like overnight nobody wants to finance a multi billion $ buyback with junk debt

Expedia cuts planned buy-back size (79 percent!) due to lack of financing

Expedia, Inc announced today that it is amending its tender offer to purchase shares of the Company's common stock to reduce the maximum number of shares that the Company is offering to purchase to 25,000,000 shares, due to the lack of available financing, on terms satisfactory to the Company, as a result of current conditions in the credit markets

The company's debt would have climbed to $4.07 billion from $500 million if it repurchased all 116.7 million shares at the maximum proposed price of $30 each, according to a regulatory filing June 29.

Bill,
I have a finding that mihgt spell trouble ahead,
compatible with your time frame of a market top.
If you take the 6-month CPI(5%) and subtract the 18-month CPI(3%) you get 2%. This difference was higher only in 1987 and 1979. On both time the Fed took action.
See "CPI: Terrible Twos"
www.wrahal.blogspot.com

HMY..s.africa mine is up alongside etf/eza...while xau is down. fwiw, a subscription service highlighted hmy from a technical pt of view as having a favorable entry for those wanting exposure to pm or miner stocks. Among juniors they highlighted: ssri,tie, ano, mmg, and azk... Some of these tickers have recent downgrades. The latter two...look more interesting: Metalline and Aurizon. But, I know nothing about fundamentals...just no news of recent downgrades here.

Someone here was buying UNG last week, any idea what is going on with it? Looking for an entry point. Thanks.

I'm traveling in Europe, but read here every day as I try never to miss Bill's commentary. Bill, one thing I've been wondering about is the relation of the dollar to the euro to gold. If the dollar tanks, people say gold will skyrocket because gold is priced in dollars. However, I would assume that the Euro would not move as aggressively higher as gold. Is it possible that gold will not reach for the sky in euros even if it goes crazy in dollars? Pardon my confusion, but I'm trying to determine whether the three way relationship between gold, dollar, and euro is linear. Or to put it another way, can the dollar/euro ratio act as a brake on gold, rendering ridiculous those who think only in dollar terms and predict overly high prices of gold (clearly Bill, you are not in that camp).
I hope this is not too befuddled.

Whew!
I'm nibbling at slw on pullbacks and got into a small position in Clean Energy (CLNE, nasq) a T. Boone Pickens IPO on Friday AM. Pickens is in China selling NG and NG conversion. Up 12% + today.

Good thing because Fred was right on UNG which sucked big time this AM! Discretion is the better part of valor Fred!

And WGDFF was at 2.99 this AM!!! Yikes. I'm for letting this one run, run, run.

I'm no expert but I'm only interested in gold in USD, as that is what I'm going to turn gold into at the gold top. The gold top should be the USD bottom, the time to buy the USD and interest rate sensitive equities.

All: please correct me if I'm wrong here....

IMO Euros (or any other fiat currency)only matter for their influence on the USD and carry trades.

The euro can act as a brake on gold if it falls which would likely push USD higher (and gold lower).

Is there not some 'irony' that the Market 'wants' rate cuts at the HIGHS?

Just wondering, how greedy can you be?

Sasol has been up over 4%. Technology that earns carbon credits may be worth something. Any leading companies that do so on a n.american exchange? Thinking of the cara micro asset class. I looked; couldn't find any. Did see one in UK.Econergy. Econergy is defining a new world of power – how it is sourced, produced, managed and delivered. Our multi-disciplinary approach is cutting-edge and unrivaled in the industry. Econergy has been instrumental in shaping the world of clean energy for almost 15 years.

Econergy is in Action. Since raising $100 million on the AIM of the London Stock Exchange in February 2006, Econergy has a hydroelectric project in operation in Bolivia, another under construction in Brazil, and six renewable energy projects in development in Central and South America.

Econergy is Local and Global. Through its investments in clean energy projects in Latin America, Econergy is bringing clean energy to local communities and generating Carbon Credits for sale internationally.

Econergy is Diversification. Econergy is investing in renewable energy projects, including wind, hydro, geothermal, solar, biomass, alternative fuels, waste heat recovery, technology upgrades, fuel conversions, as well as the manufacture and/or distribution of alternative fuels, such a

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, July 23, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Sasol (SSL) has become the first company globally to register a nitrous oxide (N2O) abatement project using secondary catalyst technology to convert the greenhouse gas N2O into harmless nitrogen and oxygen gases. The project is expected to earn significant income through sales of the resulting carbon credits. A share of these carbon credits will be invested to benefit local community-based sustainable development projects.

LOL! There's a limit?

I am getting a gut feelig that the fincancial sector which so far underperformed the general market is the next to rally. Decent volume today on the upside.

Interested in hearing others view on the HB&B stocks.

SDS: got out today with a small profit.
MS: Still holding, MER: added today

Craig,
You've peaked my interest in UNG: Do you know how the NAV is determined? Does UNG hold a portfolio of U.S. NG producers or is it based on a derivative of the NG price? Thanks.

It's based on near month NYMEX futures exp. Fred.
A 6 mo. low today.

jogyP,
Technically, the sector has not yet broken up trend. For me, not the worth the risk. Next bounce could be a bummer.

I'd rather have a global bank and own WBK in the cara100. Got stopped out this a.m. of IBN. Bill's stocks don't get enuf attention here. Well, we'll wait for the micros. Don't understand the traders here. So many run ups on quality companies and sector etfs that a patient, hands off the sell button, just slightly above average picker would have 20% ytd gain, or is that too mediocre?

Thanks Craig. I'm very bullish on NG over the long-term. I'm currently doing my due diligence on Duvernay Oil (DDV.T). It's one of Canada's premier midcaps in NG and is growing rapidly and selling at a significant discount to the bought deals over the last year and a half. I think (not sure) that DDV is a staple in many of the better resource mutual funds here. I'm looking at it for my personal pension portfolio.

Fred,
I don't know how they compare but some of the oil trust/limited partnerships pay big dividends and have large NG holdings or mainly drill for it. And, ahem, if you're Canadian, they have drips that might work for you.

I've done well with the divs over time with PGH, PWI, PDS, etc. even with the tax which Americans can write-off. I think it's Primewest that has large American holdings in Colorado, Wyoming, etc in oil shale.

ALOHA !!

Will Rahall ... Which version of the CPI are you using? Version #3 in 1987 or version #10 now? The CPI is an ever shifting weighted standard of measure that can never be pinned down. Like the DOW components and every thing else Wall Street measures there is no stability and therefore nothing truly reliable in the long term! The hallmark of a corrupt fiat currency ...

Bill ... I still believe other countries central banks will not sit idly by as the USD falls below 80 level and wrecks havoc on their export dependant GDPs. China and Japan will intervene with the US FED. Question remains when and by how much? Only Goldman Sachs knows that answer ...

ON DEBT ...
Whenever the US Stock markets collapse there will be a rush to the US Dollar. From a foreigners perspective who is invested in the DOW they are paid in US Dollars when they exit their positions, which they convert.

What about Americans who measure their debt in $trillion USD? When I sell a stock on ETrade I get a USD. No matter what you do with your hard-earned money in your lifetime there are certain needs that every human has ever since the caveman days ... mainly, FOOD, WATER, CLOTHING and SHELTER, not necessarily in that order. I have those bases covered here in Hawaii even if we have a huge GREAT DEPRESSION where SafeWay shuts down and power goes off ... If you have invested in too much margin and debt then you will need to service that debt in US Dollars. You can not eat your 401k or KRY or a Maple Leaf so you must sell to service debt both short term and long term. When the US markets become unstable and everyone realizes that the collapse is here the knee jerk response will be to sell in such volume as to protect "needs" for the present and the future. Do you sell enough GE or GOOG just for one months house payment or do you sell enough for a year or five years or to get out of debt 100%? Rising costs to survive already have people in debt nervous as does the falling value of their safety net ... real estate, imagine what a collapse in the stock market would cause. Simply put most people's incomes are not rising as fast as price inflation! Unlike 1929 though, this time with a truly global connection via computers and the internet any knee jerk response to service debt will make 1929 look like Romper Room! Obviously the FED and all the rest of the global central banks know this, hence daily PPT interventions. There is no safe fiat currency and when there is no safe money that means no safe stock market or real estate truly exists. Once again that is a major hallmark of corrupt fiat currencies.

All taxes, especially property taxes will go up no matter what the stock market does. We have way more overhead than our less sophisticated caveman ancestors did! I just got my annual property tax bill ... for a business, a home with oceanview, five acres 1.5 miles from the coast ... $350USD! It went up by $22USD, a 6.5% increase !!! If you cannot pay your property taxes what happens? No safety there ...

My point is that any public perception of a stock market crash will drive selling to a frenzy due to $trillionUSD debt loads! Both retail and commercial debt are over-extended ... a true reflection of our bloated US government debt and obligations ... the USSA !!

What is debt? Anybody ever hear of the court case First National Bank of Montgomery vs. Daly (1969)?

thank you kaimu:
here is a link to the case you mentioned..

http://boards.safesearching.com/showthread.php?t=44446

OMG! Kaimu, how can RE be so spendy in Hawa'ii yet have such low property taxes?

My land is far less yet my taxes are 4X what you pay.

I just received my new appraisal....up 80%.

BTW, all that "liquidity" we're supposedly awash in? ...THAT's debt.

UNG-SiO2, nat'l gas futures are just volatile...if you want an 80% potential upside, then you live with downside action...

Started a position in PAL today. The stock price broke a short-term downtrend line on pretty good volume last week and has pulled back to test that line on lighter volume. Keeping a fairly tight stop. Wondering if anyone here trades this stock. I'm a long-time lurker on this board and hold many positions in common with other traders here. I'm grateful for Bill's commentary and the contributions of all the regulars. In the metals I'm long GLD, KGC, GSS, MFN, WGDFF (thanks especially for this one, Bill), KRY, SLW, PAAS, and now PAL.

re: financials - took a position in SKF recently at 68, has been profitable, considered exiting due to same reasoning as JogyP but tightened up my stop instead. My rethought reasoning is all this mortgage origination and securitization was immensely profitable for financials. Even if they are not holding any bad MBS or derivatives at all, this is still a big revenue stream for which they have no replacement.

bigo
Yes, I have traded PAL in the past for some good results. It is a relatively easy, mainstream way to play Paladium with not many other options that I know of (always open to new ideas... hint, hint y' ll).
Appears to be a pretty good time to take a position circa $10.
I keep a core postion and added today... before i read your post.
Long term chart looks like it might be putting in a double bottom, but it must stay north of $9.79.
Fundamentals for all rare metals seem strong, but it does fly around, so you need conviction.

re: PAL
Thanks, Rigdon. The other palladium stock I've been considering is Stillwater Mining, and it's tempting on current weakness but there is some uncertainty around their production levels this year and I'd like to see the chart show some strength to the upside before putting money to work there. PAL had a solid production update last week and I also think the chart looks better with last week's break of the downtrendline and nearby support. Thanks again.

ticker: Stillwater Mining (SWC)

bego
Just checking to see if I am still approved.

OK
I have no interest in SWC here.
Even though it is down 3% today there was a negative cross over on the daily MA on July 14.
Long term chart still below 40 MA and daily not looking that appetizing.
Poor accumulation even on dips, though a little late buying today.
I see this as a weak stock in a strong sector.
Better opportunities exist: check out TGB,ASK, GBN etc.

Of course, I could be terribly wrong.
This whole move in PMs could be yet another fake out, smacked down by our buddies in power, but... something tells me that this is different.
When the big cap PMs move first it tells me that the big $ is taking a postion.
They don't buy the juniors... until it is kill city.
I sensed this happening last week. Anyone else get that feeling?

As long as skepticism remains about the move in gold, I think we have a chance to head higher. Still struggling with the concept of contrarian moves in the market. Any move that looks too easy (including the one I made in UNG) has a good chance of going against you and shaking you out before it makes that easy move (which has now, of course, turned into a difficult move). The market rewards risk, but the risk is sometimes better defined as doing what is most difficult emotionally or logically. Hence all the trading rules (keep positions small, cut losses quickly, ride winning positions)...if you think about it, the reason we NEED these rules is that they are difficult for the average person to follow...

UNG-anyone holding should consider selling covered calls...even after today's drubbing, Aug 45 at 1.95, Oct 45 @ 3.00...how about Jan 40 @ 6.40?

BMD-I continue to believe a new trading range with a 4 handle will appear shortly.

As for the DJIA, if I were betting (in this case I'm not), I think it closes the week above 14K.

2nd,

UNG looks attractive considering the recent price drop. But is this something Jock would call a "Falling knife"?
No one seems to be positive on Natural gas now.

-----
"While natural gas supplies are below levels at this time last year, they are growing rapidly and could hit records next month, said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Ill., in a research note.

That's partly due to a cooler summer that is reducing demand for gas. The combination of high supplies and low demand could send prices much lower in time for the winter heating season.

"This market appears poised for additional price lows," Ritterbusch said.
----
Another article on Natural gas from Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNbPH7xryVvs&refer=home

Flash Traffic//

Independence Hub went into production last week in Gulf of Mex. Production to reach 2-billion cu ft by year end. Roughly 2% of US production.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/07/20/business/NA-FIN-US-Gulf-Independence-Hub.php