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July 16, 2007

Cara’s Daily Commentary, Mon., July 16, 2007, 2:45 PM

Market Chat

I will try to make a report here, but my system is jammed.

International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar for today and the week

Econoday Weekly International Report

International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

DJIA (interactive) chart

At 2:30pm ET today, the DJIA is up +40.5 points. At least a week ago, I mentioned this was not a market I wold be short.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed the week at 13907, up +500 points from 13408 just two (short) weeks ago.

There is a lot of technical support in the 12750-12800 area (May-June-07 trading). There is even more support down at about the 12050 level of March-07.


NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Japan’s Nikkei 225 was closed, and India’s Sensex up a bit, but other markets were weak, especially Shanghai.

Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

The Nikkei Dow was strong last Friday, gaining +255 (+1.42 pct) to close at 18239, well above technical support.

The Mar-07 16600 support level is the critical one to watch this summer. It seems to be getting far off, which means the higher we go, the higher we need to raise the protective stops.

I set mental stops no worse than -8 pct from the cycle high, which, in the case of the Nikkei 225 index just happens to be above 16600 now. If violated, I would be out.

In the case of the Nikkei 225, I wouldn’t be around to see 16600 if that were to happen.

Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

The Shanghai Composite was down -92.5 points (-2.4 pct) in today’s session.

Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .



Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

The Sensex index was up a bit today, whereas the other exchanges in the region were down. Indian equities are trading at an all-time record high on the index.

Europe>

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

Like many markets, the Footsie had been very strong. There is technical support in the 6400-6500 April and June levels. However, the real underpinning of the FTSE appears to be the 6000 level of March-07.”

Should the FTSE drop to 6500 I would be out and would then expect a test of 6000.



The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

This data is supplied every day by the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc.

Here are the Friday session’s Cara 100 gainers.

Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 losers.

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the previous session.


Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes in the previous session. This is a good list to watch anytime markets start trending in the extreme. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes. That btw is called Money Flow.

In Focus

Industry “Impulse” Review

Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (versus their 26 week moving average) and their “momentum” (via the rate at which two moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is green; when both decline, it is red. Applied weekly to major industry groups and indices by “Jock” of St. Louis, this gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

This week – like last week – saw 28 industries green, and none red. There were neutral readings only for consumer durables, insurance, and real estate:

Of the Cara 100’s 64 are green, and 12 are red. Teck-Cominco (TCK) does not appear below, but is also green.

Cara 100 “Greens”

Cara 100 “Reds”


Components of major industries, on weekly basis, were (green/red):

DJIA -- 18/3;
Dow65 (indu&transport&utility) -- 40/4;
SP500 -- 218/96;
NDX -- 58/15;
RUT -- 597/714.

The following major indices are green on their weekly charts: Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq Comp, NDX, CRB, Russell 2000, and the Wiltshire 4500. By contrast, the $USD index, however, is RED!

… /Jock

Here is the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks

Here, from “Chris” (in Indianapolis) – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which David takes from Worden (using Welles Wilder calculations), are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30:

Today there are 46 above 70 and zero below 30, courtesy of yesterday’s rally.
RSI > 70 (12 of 46)

RSI < 30 (0)

Here, from “David” in upper New York State, are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for the Friday session.

Bonds & Yields Review

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.




US Dollar Review

Here is the chart of the end of the week trading.

I have been asking rhetorically, “When do we see a trade-weighted USD in the 70’s?” Soon, my friends. It’s at 80.53 at this point.

Commodities Review

$CRB Index

I have said here repeatedly that when the $CRB rises above 320, the Fed will try to step in – if they can.

It’s now at 320.68, down a lot on the day.

Oil prices are headed higher because (as I have been saying) OPEC won’t accept USD made up from twenty wooden nickels. The lower the USD falls, the higher the oil price will rise, other factors being equal.

This morning the e-mini Aug contracts are at 74.025, not much changed on the day.

Here is the e-miNY Aug-07 Crude Oil chart.



Gold & Precious Metals Review

Gold is off -0.43 pct on the day, in erratic trading.

Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.

Community Chat

My e-mail system here is jammed with 17 MB of data and over 400 messages. That means it will take time Saturday to release the log jam. Sorry.

Architect Michael Wong breezed into Nassau yesterday for a brief visit. We met at the British Colonial Hilton that he redeveloped with a Canadian developer after I introduced him to the project about ten years ago. The hotel concierge took the photos, which was a little blurry so I included both.


Today he is jetting off to a Family Island in The Bahamas called Andros with a local developer, and then returning in the evening for dinner with Julian Francis and I. Our lunch at Cove at Atlantis was set back.

There is a lot happening here, and schedules change in a heartbeat.

Anyway, we would like to do several projects here, with Michael as architect. I intend to establish a Bahamas Development Fund for that purpose. The BDF Board will be exemplary.

Michael will be back in Toronto for a few days before departing on Friday for China. In addition to being architect for a number of venues associated with the Summer Games of 2008, he is involved in a massive convention center project in the mainland China city of Zhuhai, which adjoins Macau (and its casinos), a few miles from Hong Kong. The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge is under construction, which will further open the gaming-convention-trade center market.

Should anybody doubt the economic power of that region, Michael tells me that (i) the first hotel in the new Zhuhai convention-trade center complex will have 10,000 rooms, and (ii) there are, by govt count, about four million manufacturing companies located within 100 kilometres of Zhuhai, each doing at least $5 million in annual sales. I’ll have to check the numbers. In any event, these manufacturers will be exhibiting their products at the trade mart to international buyers who will stay on for vacations and so forth.

I do believe that the tri-city area of HK-Zhuhai-Macau will become the world’s biggest center of trade, commerce and entertainment. When I compare the relentless, unwavering pounding of Chinese entrepreneurship combined with the country’s planned development to the dysfunctional US system and economy in disarray, where the leadership is misleading and failing its people, I shake my head in awe.

The issue, at least in my mind, is clear: the American capitalist/financier has lost confidence in the domestic political process and no longer believes the US is a land of opportunity comparable to China, India, Canada and Mexico. Capital is flowing out of America and into those other economies, in pursuit of higher returns. As the USD becomes relatively weaker than other currencies, the cost of imports to US producers and consumers is rising.

The thing that traders have to understand is that this breakdown is a systematic process, unfolding in a series of waves. Presently, the USD is in a down-dip that is, frankly, alarming to Americans who know the need for a strong Dollar. The media is building the hype that is causing hysteria, really. This will be followed by a period where the USD recovers somewhat, and that is when the Wall Street and Washington story-tellers have their kick at the can (eg, “the USD is the greatest story never told” kind of entertaining nonsense).

All is fair in love and war, as they say, but traders have to dig beneath the superficiality of today’s reportage and appreciate that, unless the serious problems of the times are solved (see the list in Michael Panzner’s Financial Armageddon), the American Dream will die. The
American capitalist/financier/politician who is in a position of control will continue to get his/hers from the system and move that wealth offshore to the developing economies, the new “new world”.

America’s middle class will become a lower class. Economic crime will expand; the fortress walls around planned (“segregated”) residential communities and office complexes will grow higher. The social system will break down under cost burdens.

So, my point is that this weakening of America is coming from within; it is systematic, and evolving, like a child’s slinky toy bouncing down the stairs or, more realistically, like a Bear market phase where price cycles reach lower highs and lower lows until the bottom is reached, in exhaustion.

The hard part for all of us to accept is that, for historical reasons, Americans are the most optimistic people on this earth. Never say die attitude. But, like a cancer patient who refuses the essential treatment, which is to eradicate the cause, there will be no ultimate recovery. Eventually, the patient will die, all hope being taken away. For strong-spirited Americans, then, that is going to be a long and slow death.

When faced with similar issues in the past century, Great Britain required the help of its allies. Latin American dictators were overthrown. Unfortunately, America will put committees and academians to work to study the problem, and Congress will debate it ad nauseum. The most capable financier/capitalists will have moved on. The ugly result will be inevitable, but it is the journey that causes the suffering. Death becomes a relief.

We all have within us as individuals the power to achieve enormous goals, if realistic; but as a society, we have failed to do this because we have grown up to understand that life isn’t fair. People among us who have the power to do so have used it in their self-interest. A few people have exploited the many.

So those of us ‘in the many’ who actually care about social equity have to step up to lead the way. In a minuscule way in the context of the big picture, I have tried to do my share to help others. I have given – I am giving – all that I can. There are limits to what any one of us can do. We all must pitch in.

For me, I intend to return to the usual routine after I move into a regular home and office here in Nassau, which will take time. I will then create the Bahamas Development Fund because I know that such a vehicle could raise over a billion dollars for investment in real property backed assets that will generate satisfactory cash flow. As this country grows under the new Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham, it will need infrastructure of every type, which I intend to help fund.

I can make a difference here, as I did ten years ago when Ingraham’s govt at the time asked me to help resolve a problem with the old British Colonial Hotel. Through my initiative, within a year over $100 million flowed here behind the architectural work of Michael Wong.

In the total scheme of Michael’s international work, a billion dollars is not huge, but it will make a world of difference here, and I intend to make it happen. This is a land of opportunity.

The US presents a different picture as so much wealth has transferred out, leaving domestic prices held up mostly by inflation. There is never a good reason to lose all hope, however. Yet Americans will have to follow the British example of keeping a stiff upper lip if they have any chance of resolving their weighty issues. I believe they face a tough decade ahead.

Repetition is occasionally necessary: the problems and solutions for America are well laid out in Michael Panzner’s book. In content terms, it is a heavy book; but the bright side is that the issues of “Financial Armageddon” can be addressed by the blue print he provides.

I hope his countrymen take the Panzner book seriously.

And when you come to read mine in October, you can recall this photo, where I am slaving away under the hot Bahamas sun (LOL).

In my own way, the material is every bit as important.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 16, 2007 02:43:53 PM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary

Discourse

Bill

At your leasure, please post pictures of some "Bahaman Geese."

Posted by: tom sheepngoats [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 16, 2007 3:31 PM [link]

Uh oh. I sent Bill a big file. I think I'm in trouble.

Sorry, everybody.

Thanks for the scary words of warning, Bill. It's a little bit depressing, but all I can do is keep trying to improve my little corner of the world and try not to make things worse for everyone else. And get my Irish citizenship processed. I don't want to be the last guy out if the US goes down the drain.

Hopefully a nice night tonight at the ballpark with a buddy, a few beers and the Jays spanking the Yankees will make me feel a little little better.

Mike
NYC

Posted by: MikeNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 16, 2007 3:46 PM [link]

I see that Western Goldfields symbol changed today to WGDFF.OB. Would that be any indication of an imminent listing on AMEX?? I added to my position today. Any insights on this?

Posted by: jc173 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 16, 2007 3:57 PM [link]

Dear Bill,

I can see that within the forseeable future, you are going to be a very important man in the Bahamas, and I am hoping you can help get me tee times!

More darkly, when you state:

"The hard part for all of us to accept is that, for historical reasons, Americans are the most optimistic people on this earth. Never say die attitude. But, like a cancer patient who refuses the essential treatment, which is to eradicate the cause, there will be no ultimate recovery. Eventually, the patient will die, all hope being taken away. For strong-spirited Americans, then, that is going to be a long and slow death."

It's not that I disagree, merely that I feel i should state that Americans have never really been offered a meaningful, politically viable choice. Since the '63 coupe, the various arms of government here have been tied, and the checks and balances have been thrown out of balance. Voters have been offered false choices by irrelevent politicians who merely pretend to represent them.

Chris

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 16, 2007 5:14 PM [link]

WGDFF:
It changed its corporate location from Idaho to Ontario. That is why the symbol changed.

Posted by: stktrader [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 16, 2007 5:23 PM [link]

wgdf-wgdff can apply for listing on the AMEX by the end of July if the share price remains above 2.00 according to the company.

Posted by: RonK [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 16, 2007 5:54 PM [link]

Re the American psyche: An attitude adjustment is in order, but I don't think it's anything the average American can't handle. People are capable of serious change when not caught up in the mindless hype they're blasted with every day. There is a leadership void. When someone with the right combination of intellect, integrity and insight comes along at the right time (ie, when we're ready to hear what needs to be done and the sacrifices needed to do it), I'm prepared to bet we do it. I have a brother who has lived and worked in HK since the early nineties. He has a beautiful home in Repulse Bay, travels frequently to the Mainland and the Middle East on business, and likes to vacation in Spain and Italy. But when he retires, it's going to be in the States. In spite of Mike's comments above, I don't think most of us are even close to thinking about leaving. I've read parts of Panzner's book more than once. Responsible heads will prevail, and the American citizen will come through. How did we get through the last two World Wars and the Great Depression, for crying out loud...

Back to more mundane matters: it would take a stronger constitution than I have to go short right now, but I can't help thinking the ultimate opportunity is drawing near. The question is how to play it. I don't think it's going to be buy and hold...you would almost have to play the stair-step down a little at a time to avoid getting stopped out. BMD: if you didn't get in today, maybe tomorrow...think I mentioned Jarding bought 25K shares in the open US market July 11 @ $3.76USD, but will also point out that Abercrombie sold 10K shares July 12 @ $4.01CDN...KRY: still holding, but let's face it, we're all getting tired of talking about it...WGDFF: Bill did say you could leave this one alone for a couple of years and not worry about it, which is what I plan to do...GFI: glad to see it finally getting some respect...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 16, 2007 8:53 PM [link]

johojo-excerpts of neal stephenson's books look good-do you have a recommendation for first to read?

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 16, 2007 10:16 PM [link]

i have started reading Quicksilver, enjoying it a lot - thanks for the rec johojo!

Posted by: chas [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 16, 2007 10:20 PM [link]

the ultimate pet peeve-where can one find clean public restrooms:

http://tinyurl.com/2remg9

if i had to move to another country, i guess it would be singapore...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 16, 2007 10:47 PM [link]

2nd_ave,

The chronological order of the Neal Stephenson novels I mentioned is "Quicksilver", "The Confusion", "The System of the World", and "Cryptonomicon", spanning the 17th century through World War II and the contemporary data-enthralled era.

Stephenson wrote "Cryptonomicon" first (and I read it first) but "Quicksilver" is the chronological starting point. When I read them again (and I know I will), I'll begin with "Quicksilver".

It's an uncommonly rich and illuminating series! Enjoy!

Posted by: johojo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 12:30 AM [link]

I have a question for bill or anyone else.

I am in the licensing stage of becoming a financial advisor. I have just started to read this site and I am a bit dismayed by the actions of our country's finacial and political leadership. Am I coming into this profession at the wrong time?

I am not trying to hijack this thread but I do not know where else to post this question in the hopes of getting an honest answer in return.

I would also like to know how many of you are locals to the US. As traders aware of the possibilities and opportunities in countries like China do you feel like you are trapped in the US? Do you think there are enough oportunities locally to prosper in times like these?

Posted by: mebea [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 12:32 AM [link]

July 17: looks like we rally today..i think a DJIA 14,000+ close is in the cards...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 8:59 AM [link]

mebea-i think the best time for a young guy to get into a profession is when things are totally messed up...we need people like you asking the right kinds of questions. i'm not in the financial sector, but i recall the gloom hanging over the mba classes of 1987-91...yet it was an ideal time to get in on the ground floor of many investment banking firms. my younger brother, who ended up in the financial sector, gradutated with a law degree around that time, took an opportunity to break into the M&A field with a US company in HK...and has now succeeded beyond his wildest dreams. turmoil=opportunity...as bill likes to quote, may you live in interesting times...hope you stick it out..

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 9:07 AM [link]

2nd,
I bought SDS yesterday expecting a pullback after DOW touches 14,000. It looks like I may have been a bit early.

GRS: It appears GRS may have turned yesterday after hitting a low of 12 the day before.

Posted by: JogyP [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 9:21 AM [link]

Check out the charts of GRZ 2.5 months before they got their permit, compared to KRY the past 2.5 months. Almost identical... pretty neat to see, hopefully it continues to follow the pattern

Posted by: chas [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 9:40 AM [link]

Regarding GRS, I see an encouraging divergence in the MACD on the weekly chart. I so bought a bit this a.m.

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 10:23 AM [link]

JogyP,
You probably want to key in on the S&P instead of the DOW.

Traders don't make much of the round number but the 2000 S&P record level will be watched.

I think we get our correction after we hit that high.

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 10:42 AM [link]

Can anyone suggest a service which will provide me with real-time streaming of quotes (real time alerts would be nice too)for my stock watchlist of 50 to 100 TSX Venture companies? Thanks.

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 11:00 AM [link]

Fred,

A buddy has me looking at Alphatrade. He likes it, but I can't comment first-hand yet, as I haven't had the chance to take a good look at it.

Posted by: manx928 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 11:08 AM [link]

I don't think there's ever a really fantastic time to become a financial advisor. It's strange, but as a salesman, you most probably can make tons more money selling something less tangible and more scammy, unless you're at one of the top shops. I was a stockbroker once, and it was the dumbest, most mindless and worst paying sales job I ever did have.

Chris

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 11:26 AM [link]

Blow up? Or Blow Off?
http://tinyurl.com/28wep9

Posted by: johojo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 11:36 AM [link]

2nd,
Are you a buyer of BMD here?

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 12:04 PM [link]

craig-i know joel jarding liked it @ 3.76USD, so it can't be a bad time...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 12:09 PM [link]

Can anyone explain the sharp continuing sell-off, beyond the analyst downgrade the other day, in Eldorado Gold (EGO)?
I have them on my watchlist based on a BMO report published on this site as a producer with "Greatest estimated increase in production" AND "Greatest projected increase in EPS 2006-2009". Has there been bad news I am unaware of?

Posted by: Nick K [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 12:31 PM [link]

Nick K ... I wouldn't be buying EGO here myself as the market overreaction is ongoing. But that's what it is if this issue in Turkey is merely transient. An overreaction. I'm watching and waiting for volume to subside, signaling the sellers are exhausted.

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 12:35 PM [link]

http://tinyurl.com/2eco4a
Ron Paul for President!
A speech of Ron Paul before the U.S. House of Representatives. I'm from Italy... and I'd love a politician here who could speak (and act) this way. Really impressive. The ideas about wars and monetary system are very close to what I read here from Bill and other mates. We need more people like him and Bill!

Posted by: Lelik [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 12:36 PM [link]

Nick K,

Eldorado has had its mine in Turkey shut down by the government "temporarily" pending resolution of a legal claim against it by another company.

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 12:38 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

Bill ... love the photos and your projects ... I love seeing a truly happy human being reveling in his happiness!

In other words ... shock of shocks ... Empires do collapse! This is a historical fact. I beleieve they collapse even faster when the Empire dujour engages in military actions to bolster control and fortify a false image of power.

Once again I would love to see the State Of Hawaii become the Switzerhamas Of The Pacific! With a 5000 mile "moat" Hawaii begs neutrality but like all Americans businesses and residents of Hawaii can see no further than the welfare teat of the US government. So long as Americans perceive the "free ride" will continue not much will change politically or economically. Given that the US Dollar is the World's reserve currency I find it amazing that most Americans have no rudimentary understanding of what "money" is or more importantly "is suppose to be"! The USA has abandoned fiscal responsibility for many decades now and truly does not deserve reserve currency status. The political elite here in the USA have destroyed the long term future of all Americans for the sake of selfish short term financial and political gains. In a sense so has the US voter. Loyalty to the two party aristocracy(Rep & Dem)is sorely misplaced and has proven to be our downfall.

As I have posted here many times in the past I made my lifestyle play many years ago by opting out iof suburbia and into agriculture and farm life. Financially I abandoned the US Dollar in 2000 and all printable "paper" currencies in favor of "real money" ... Back to basics for me! Eat what you grow and save gold not paper. My next move is to diversify outside the USA, which I have already begun.

The "War On Terror" ... probably the most absurd war ever created next to the "War On Drugs" ... do we only go to war against "nouns" now? ... Its looking as if these "wars" will finally have the same corrosive effect as the Vietnam War did on the US Dollar in the 1970's. Back then an Australian Dollar was worth more than a US Dollar. All good for Lockheed and General Dynamics but not much good for our "youth" or our future! I believe it was your island neighbor to the South ... Jimmy Cliff ... who said "respect the youth" ... In America we don't!

I am spending time with my nephews here until August, one is 16 and the other is 21 ... Time to debunk all the school junk they learned so they could pass tests! When do schools start teaching "real world" skills? Not a single grad from any US school knows that their own worst enemy is their own government!

jc173 ... Since Western Goldfields moved to Canada the added "F" indicates a foreign corp.

mebea ... I would be very cautious of being a public "financial advisor". You are in the "OPM CLUB" ... Other People's Money Club ... I believe there will be unpleasant repercussions when the house of cards collapses!

When my Father passed away last September I flew to Houston, Texas to pay my last respects and help my Mother decipher the financial maze he left her. She lives in a small town outside of Houston called Conroe. Last time I was there, some twelve years ago, there were more local banks, but now it seems the only banks in town are Chase, BofA and Wells Fargo all huge HB&B. I went into Chase and BofA and was greeted by all these 20 somethings "financial advisors" with their suits and gold watches and framed "financial advisor" certificates trying to convince me to keep all their funds in their bank and diversify into the latest equity or ETF ... this and that! I felt like I was in a Vegas casino and was being plied with all sorts of "drinks" by HB&B shills! Very "scripted" except the pandering compliments! That sort of "advising" is all about the sell side and I would be very skeptical. There is an agenda afoot and it isn't about making the little guy rich! When it goes bad(not if)the only phrase that comes to my mind is "tar and feathers" and something about a "rail"! You're signing onto the front lines of a financial war. Just beware and don't corrupt your maorales. The fact that you are asking questions here on this blog indicates you still possess some ... That's my biased take as an exceedingly brief client ...

Posted by: kaimu [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 12:41 PM [link]

Valgold (VAL) is on sale.

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 12:47 PM [link]

2nd,
New lows for UNG.

Are you and Leisa still bottom fishing for NG?

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 1:08 PM [link]

Kaimu's right,
It's the new millenium version of "Turn on, tune in, drop out".

Turn on the computer, tune in to Bill to hear the truth, and drop out of the welfare state.

Kaimu vs Leary. Who knew?

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 1:14 PM [link]

craig-have been in and out of UNG, last purchase was at yesterday's lows, which has now been taken out...not planning to add any at this time...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 1:30 PM [link]

clarification: i'm still holding the UNG i bought yesterday, and if i weren't, i'd be buying..

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 1:41 PM [link]

Afternoon People,

Tomorrow marks the one month anniversary of Crystallex taking the "very final step" to secure their permit to build. I have gotten to the point where I can't bring myself to buy it, so that probably means it's about to rip.

EGO is dead in the water. I lost change on this one too, betting on the hammer pattern the day of the drop. When it didn't go up the next day, I sold. That was good. Problem here is, this news is super-bad and is really weighing. Today there was a fakeout turnaround in the morning, let's see what the aftn brings.

Bill...Cheers! Think of me at cocktail time!

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 2:02 PM [link]

Thank you stktrader, Ronk and kaimu for you responses to my question re: WDGFF.

Lelik

I just received some lit on Ron Paul from an aunt in Las Vegas who attended a rally. She was also impressed but said the mainstream media does or will not give him much press. We do need a change....

Posted by: jc173 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 2:04 PM [link]

Number2 & Fred:

Thank you!

Posted by: Nick K [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 2:04 PM [link]

Thank you stktrader, Ronk and kaimu for you responses to my question re: WDGFF.

Lelik

I just received some lit on Ron Paul from an aunt in Las Vegas who attended a rally. She was also impressed but said the mainstream media does or will not give him much press. We do need a change....

Posted by: jc173 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 2:05 PM [link]

Thanks Kaimu and 2nd!

The reason I'm here and reading the content and discussion on this site is that I want to bring value to the people I work with. I would rather work in a financial planner aspect. I believe you create a better business by keeping people's money safe and ensuring a comfortable retirement than by functioing strictly as a broker.

I'm grateful a site like this exists.

Thanks

Posted by: mebea [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 2:39 PM [link]

Re: Kaimu's comment: "ALOHA !! Bill ... love the photos and your projects ... I love seeing a truly happy human being reveling in his happiness!"

Anyone who's watched or seen footage of Leonard Bernstein conducting an orchestra or playing the piano can appreciate what it's like to watch someone who has found his calling. That's why I enjoy reading Bill's commentary..

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 3:02 PM [link]

Chris,
EGO dead? Volume suggests yes but how could all of them know what's actually behind the headlines. My fantasies are scaring me but i'm still holding. When Bill is in a position to offer premium services, I would trust his better informed decision, and not soon enough.

Bill's GE is moving when so many people had given up on this company. I have 950 shares since 2003. It's been frustrating. I doubt anything is too different only that the big money men want this thing to catchup?

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 3:04 PM [link]

SPAM filter needed.
Any suggestions for outlook express? I'm getting flooded. Block send rule list ain't working.

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 3:12 PM [link]

Long NG via option spread. Not trading in and out - it was very cheap to buy and I'm going to ride it through hurricane season with an exit point of around 9 on the underlying.

Now all we need is a Cat 4 or two.

Mike
NYC

Posted by: MikeNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 3:19 PM [link]

jasper,

For handling spam I prefer "Mailwasher Pro". You can actually filter the spam before it ever leaves the server, giving a range of control and reliability I find unmatched in any other product. It's available for Windows, Mac OS X and Linux and is reasonably priced.

I know this sounds like a sales pitch, but it's because it works so much better for me than anything else I've tried. This past weekend a condo association website I manage was flooded by spammers. Mailwasher Pro allowed me to quickly size up the source of the problem and bounce emails back to the senders without ever having to bring the spam onto my personal workstation.

Mailwasher Pro is available from Firetrust: http://tinyurl.com/2bknx2

Posted by: johojo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 3:35 PM [link]

EGO does seem to have fallen into a bit of a black hole. Sell and re-buy after a bottom is made

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 3:43 PM [link]

To Fred:
I've used both stockwatch.com and globeinvestor gold at globeinvestor.com though I haven't used the real time at globeinvestor.

Jasper:
In the past, like johojo I found Mailwasher Pro worked well. However, since changing to Gmail, I haven't had to use any spam software at all as Gmail looks after it.

Posted by: bobj [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 3:50 PM [link]

manx98 -

I'd also love to hear what you learn about the best streaming quotes and trading solutions for TSX-V stocks.

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 3:57 PM [link]

Manx98 and BobJ,

Thanks for your suggestions regarding streaming quote service providers. I'll check them out. I currently use the free Globe Investor delayed quote service for Canadian stocks and the free Morningstar.com portfolio for delayed NYSE and Nasdaq watchlist quotes.

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 4:20 PM [link]

I hope you are not really wishing for a CAT 4.
It will go up for the same reasons Bill mentions, the 20 wooden nickels.

Posted by: SiO2 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 4:32 PM [link]

re:Mailwasher Pro

I went to the site and it look similar to what is now available on o.e.: it has to learn from the emails that I tell it to block...if so, these spam guys have way too many random combinations to keep something novel.... and each time i see incoming email while at the computer I'm likely to have to attend to it.

Ideally, i load something that makes no sign of incoming spam and just learns on its own without my help.....Does this spam blocker do that? If so, I'm ordering it today.

Anyone use Thunderbird as their email software? Thinking of that as an alternative.

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 4:43 PM [link]

jasper -

I have used thunderbird and found it to be a very good email program. support is through forums, which I found hard to navegate. But a solid email program. It's open source and free .

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 5:38 PM [link]

I used Thunderbird in the past and it was a great improvement over OE. I would suggest you look at Gmail. The spam still comes in, but Gmail automatically puts it in a Spam folder. I probably only get 2 spam emails a week in my inbox and don't remember ever looking through the spam folder and seeing an email that shouldn't have been classed as spam. I don't even look through the spam folder now, just hit "delete all spam". I also didn't have to do anything to "teach" it what to classify as spam. The major advantages though are no limits on number of emails and the storage limit is 2800 MB!

Posted by: bobj [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 6:13 PM [link]

Shark,
With the -3.5 on the Bollinger Bands on KRY at 3.69, the 200 day EMA at 3.73, and the last low at 3.63, I think that putting in an order tomorrow at 3.65 is a good bet for the low of the period. I will be there for 2K shares tomorrow. I think that will be the blow off bottom prior to notice to begin production. stk

Posted by: stktrader [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 6:22 PM [link]

Hmmm, looks like some financials, BSC, and mortgage companies, C, are having "issues" in after hours.

Posted by: agaunv [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 6:47 PM [link]

JogyP-your ultra-shorts look pretty good at the moment...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 7:13 PM [link]

Yeah I expect my SDS to be up smartly tomorrow too!

[kinda down at the moment, no worries though, just a different play on buy and hold :-)]

Posted by: agaunv [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 7:26 PM [link]

Is there a way for individual investor to get into MBS CDO market directly or via proxy ? While being negative on RE in general I think ABX.HE for AAA and possibly AA grades overshoot on the downside and would like to add a small long position correlated with AAA MBS CDOs.

Posted by: occam_razor [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 8:10 PM [link]

Regarding Mebea's inquiry....I feel if one can "advise" in some form of independent manner, there will be enormous opportunities dealing with all those boomers who come to realize their pensions/IRA's (not to mention their Soc. Security being taken away) aren't close to being enough. Well-thought-out secular themes (energy, defense, health care/biotech, PM's, maybe select foreign CD's thru Everbank) CAN work. I'm certainly not saying these are the themes that will ultimately work, but no matter how bad things will get, I do believe "there's always a bull market somewhere". After all, didn't gold do pretty well during the Great Depression? Again, these millions of people will need a lot of hand-holding for those who "exploit" it in a responsible way.

Posted by: PK [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 8:38 PM [link]

It took Bear Stearns more than 2 weeks to calculate that their 2 troubled hedge funds are now worth almost zero. I'll bet BS knew much earlier.

Posted by: mrmockbird [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 9:13 PM [link]

It took Bear Stearns more than 2 weeks to calculate that their 2 troubled hedge funds are now worth almost zero. I'll bet BS knew much earlier.

Posted by: mrmockbird [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 9:15 PM [link]

The investment landscape looks both delightfully/deceptively simple and treacherous. Everyday seems that way. How long can the bull be so many places? I confess I miss Bill's commentary. I have to have a daily fix. Is this a bad addiction?

re spam..it's "pdf spam"....evidentally the most aggrssive version ever.

I have trend micro and am trying to use its spam filter...just cranked it up to "max"...however, at risk of missing legit mail. Anyone have experience with trend micro for filtering spam?

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 9:25 PM [link]

STKTRADER:

I don't use the fancy moving averages, and the 200 simple is sitting at what, $3.55? I'd be happier buying it there. And in fact, a plunge into the lower 3's would be most welcome. I want this stock at the right price, which is no longer 4 bucks.

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 9:42 PM [link]

Ultrashort Financials (SKF) is going to have a very good day tomorrow and the next few days with the BSC story.
I am glad I got out of LEH at 2:59:39 PM CST today.
KRY: I am loosing patience, but determined to hold until some news about permit comes out.

BMD: Added some at 3.63 today.
Still holding onto SDS and DUG.

Posted by: JogyP [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 17, 2007 11:07 PM [link]

DX has a 79 handle. So here we have it.


Mar 08 79.98
June 08 79.790


Yen is popping. At 7 PM EST the near month Yen contract surged from .8252 to .8270 on massive volume. It's now up to .8272 and climbing.

Are carry traders sweating?

Today's chart of the DX on the NYBOT electronic looks really dirty, especially when you look at the volume. Looks like there was intense buying starting about 8:30 AM. The conspiracy theorist in me says that was a doomed effort to push it back above and keep it above 80.350. Who in their right mind is legitimately going long the DX on day like today?

At _exactly_ 2 PM the volume dropped to just above nothing and the thing summarily went into the crapper, falling from 80.375 to 80.150 over the next 8 hours.

I wonder how many kinds of intervention we'll see overnight and tomorrow? The Japanese authorities seem to love screwing with their markets even more than the US govt.

Will CNBC even mention it (the 79?)

Will Bill surface to comment on it?

Will gold actually reflect the market or will the cash market get bombed by selling when NY opens?

Will WGDFFFFF make a move tomorrow?

Will I get my Cat 4 before summer ends?

Interesting times...

Mike
NYC

PS jogyp - that makes sense to me - trading KRY seems crazy right now, all due respect to everyone trading it. Since the permit-granting 'pop' will greatly exceed the variations in price we are seeing, and there is risk of it not happening, in my mind it's: Allocate risk capital, sit back and wait for the lottery to come in, and do trading based on other stuff, like the broad money flows Bill lays out for us every day. Just my unasked for .02. Or did it just drop to .0175? Good luck and have a cigar for me when the permit comes in. You too shark. You guys deserve it after all this stress. And guaranteed you guys know more about trading than me, so take my ill-informed opinions for what they are - just some guy in the Net spouting off about not-my-business :-) But I'm rooting for you KRY guys.

Posted by: MikeNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 18, 2007 12:25 AM [link]

80.08, near month DX (NYBOT.)

.8281 near month Yen.

Posted by: MikeNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 18, 2007 1:29 AM [link]

Even in paradise, things are not perfect. Problems with (i) my laptop and (ii) local Internet, kept me from blogging yesterday, but things might be resolved this morning. Hopefully. Thankfully.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 18, 2007 7:17 AM [link]

Ah yes, Island Time, eh Bill?

The coconut telegraph is NOT broadband.

You'll likely end up with a satellite system and a generator once you're settled. Like me. It's the island thing. I can relate to the connection but I hope the laptop is alright. Make sure you back it up!

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 18, 2007 8:17 AM [link]

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