Bill. Remember all our problems as humans started in Paradise. Just hope you don't have an apple for a computer.

Hi Everybody,

I have a few minutes and wanted to provide an update from the trench as it were - hopefully without too many typos and poor grammer which were sprinkled in my post to Bill yesterday. Sorry.

The credit contagion continues unabated. This morning I was in a meeting with a large middle market lender in the US whose executive was exercising MAC clauses on commitments for loans they had committed to. The importance of mentioning this is only the fact the credit crunch is in full force.

In addition to this activity, many hedge funds and levered vehicles (firms that buy debt and equity and then lever it up the wazoooo for return) have had their warehouse lines cancelled outright. That means if they are in the process of raising a levered vehicle and these firms typically ask the dealers for a warehouse facility as a bridge before they receieve permament capital. Thus the vehicles can "get into the market". Those warehouse lines are cancelled and positions purchase with those lines are being dumped.

The money center lenders who in conjunction with the Fed are VERY CONCERNED about the environment and are acting to reduce risk. This will continue to have an impact on global asset prices from stocks to bonds to art to (shudder to think) homes in the Bahamas.....

Be very careful. Have cash and live for another day. It will get better. It always does. We're just not quite at that point yet.

Noodle

Further today the papers have reported that in aggregate Goldman, Morgan, and Lehman are on the hook for $150 billion in aggregate in bridge loans. Please be aware that these bridge loans are not only for secured paper but also include a fair amount of unsecured debt. These numbers do not include Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase or Citi.

Mr. Paulson and Mr. Hormats (head of Goldman Sachs International) are telling us this morning that "there is no problem". I cant imagine any intelligent person actually believing them anymore....

jasper-yes...i'm now out entirely except for UNG/KRY/BMD...if this were Vegas, my chips would be off everything except the pass line + a couple of C&E bets...

i will concede that discipline (selling at the close) trumped karma (holding overnight) for the gold trade, although i was able to take it off the table on the bounce this morning...

"Yesterday morning, in a report replete with continuing warnings and alerts, I inserted the following paragraph on which some of you focused, trying to position me as a Bull.

Nothing has changed in the market’s rising trend and cycle, despite Friday’s and Tuesday’s smack downs. The DJIA is down about -200 points only over the past five days since its record high, but is still up almost 300 points for the month."

"There was a statement from a reader that he was focused on market internals, which I suppose was an inference I wasn’t, which I’m sure amused many of you."

We needn't be coy here Bill. That reader was ME.

I do not recall seeing anything here that said you have to agree with the blog host and if you disagree kindly keep your mouth shut.

I made my comments and showed what I was thinking as a service to your readers. No one "called you out" or acted amused by the fact that my read was proven correct. No one acted amused or even hinted that your morning comments were erroneous or that my amplification of them was anything but helpful.

If you merely found the stage crowded when you returned Bill, I assure you the condition is easily remedied. This is your blog. I do not have to post here, frankly have very little precious time for it, and only did it to give your readership some guidance.

Perhaps your obvious pique is a reminder to me that I need to go back to what I promised to do: raise my two girls. Thanks for the "Ah-ha!" moment.

Best regards,

I'm trying to decide where to position myself right now. I'm keeping all my PM positions because I expect better from them, though I'm starting to get worried about the fact that KRY seems to be the largest at this point. I may have to dump some KRY if I can do so for even a slight profit on a bounce.

I've been holding bearish put spreads on ABK and MBI, but I closed my ABK one today since it had dropped twice what I needed for max profit and I didn't feel like tying up cash there. I might get back into that just because I suspect both companies will see things get much worse.

I have long SBUX and WFMI positions, and while they have been moving pretty wildly, my gut says that they will be improving unless the whole market tanks. I'm also stepping into NFLX right now since they've taken such a hit lately and Blockbuster will have to stop hemorrhaging money soon, so I think Netflix will regain the upper hand in subscribers.

I'm thinking I should add some more puts somewhere so my portfolio gets a little more market-neutral. Right now if I beta-weight my portfolio against the SPY, I have a delta of around 78. I'd love to get that down to zero by being long in strong sectors (PM, for one), and short in weak ones (MBI, ABK are some examples). Any good ideas for short positions out there, so I can make this happen?

jasper-the market's coming back...if it takes the "port" within a few percent of your high for the year, why not sit on the sidelines for awhile...

UNG catching a bid...

Gentlemen,
I'm absolutely positive no harm was meant by either of you.

No harm, no foul.

Come on, it's a big web and we're all connected in some way.

Now be good.....

MarkM-

I think what it comes down to is that you and Bill were looking at different time frames. Yesterday morning, the short term picture looked very weak, but the longer term picture wasn't looking too bad. Remember, he tries to write for people with long term holdings, not day traders, just because he thinks that is where the majority of his readers fall. I know yesterday didn't bother me when it came to my long-term positions -- it was the short ones that were making me nervous.

I didn't get the feeling Bill was upset with you, but he perhaps took offense to the implication that he doesn't consider market internals. You are both great resources, and if you agreed all the time then we wouldn't need you both. ;) I'm personally glad to see you posting again, and I hope you continue to provide a different perspective from our host.

I'm gonna probably jump the gun and take a couple of positions today if the karma's right. KRY at 331 was tempting...

jasper-any move up right now is being met with supply...not to give unwanted advice, but a 5-6% hit to your portfolio can be made up in no time once the market bottoms...

chris-i wouldn't do it (kry)...i think we close at the lows today...

KRY is bouncing around quite a bit. The trading looks almost suspicious to me. Yesterdays push to 3.54 close and then todays plunge and recovery...

I'm still waiting to see if I want to buy my way back into this stock. I may take a smaller position than before.

On another note: HOV November and January PUTS are paying out sweet premiums on $10 strike price. November is paying 0.85! Might get put at 9.15, but a 40% drop from here seems just about as much as you could expect if the housing market continues to trend down.

SDA up about 7% from yesterday.

Oil: I am adding to NXY and holding until October.

As for UNG, I think it may be actually be time to sell if you bought it lower in the last few days. NG glut is not expected to get better until 2008, as per my post yesterday.

MarkM,
Both your analysis and Bill's elaboration of his opinion made excellent sense and will have interested many readers. I agree that Bill sounded a bit defensive, but I know how I feel when my computer/internet is misbehaving, and I can imagine feeling a bit iritable under such circumstances.
Please hang in with the group and continue publishing useful and interesting comments.

(Apologies in advance if this ends up being a duplicate message courtesy of TypeKey.)

jas-if you're looking to rotate into something, take a look at UNG...it's been there and done that, and appears to have no correlation to the market...

Hmmm, according to the news, I *could* have been an astronaut afterall.

Think so? If I were the Plunge People I'd hit the thiner Friday market with a little love at 2:15 and 3:30 to close things up decently this week.

2nd ave,
as an outsider looking in, there can be more objectivity. Curious. Are you identifying the choice of going to 100%cash on a bounce? If that takes me to lets say 4% off my high, and the mkt later does a 10-15% correction, i'd be patting myself on the back as job well done.

MarkM:
Like wow. I had the same reaction. Stress plus other stuff may play a role. NEVER dawned on me that a comparison was inferred. What I did think was that there are so many ways for the blind man to touch the elephant and that I needed to go back to a way that fit my brain: charts. FWIW, I just added one:$ppc 21 day. Danger zones: sudden large drop in pessimism or prolonged narrow volatility when pessimism is moderately low. Just a thought from staring at the chart.

If there was a way to chart bullish percentage of cara 100 or multiple industry groups that would be interesting too.

MarkM,
As others have said before, I also value your postings, as they are concise and insightful. As I occasionally need a 2x4 up the side of the head to pay attention, I actually get more from Bill and others when there is the …for lack of a better word…argument. I learn more by reading postings that define and then redefine your take on what’s happening. Yesterday was stressful for me as I have a small retirement portfolio that I am ….in the local vernacular, repricing risk as I have entered a phase of reduced earnings and can ill afford even the standard 8% stops.
If you can ill afford the time you spent posting…by all means, pay attention to those that matter most. If you are backing away because some old bull (no offense, Bill) snorted at your words, I would have to reevaluate your conviction in those words.
To Bill, thanks for fighting through the roadblocks to get a post out. It’s a testament to your efforts that the posts continued last night into the wee hours and then picked up again in the am today. At 1am pst, I actually wrote a long rant slamming some canuk who was shouting about the stupidity of us americans. I decided that if I continued and went ahead and posted, I would just be proving his point.
Bill you may want to consider elevating MarkM to XO position or sending him a free copy of your book. The discussion back and forth allows the sense of the words to sink in. The net effect of the response by you that I plucked out was….
“The equity market is hurting, but not (yet) broken. Confidence has been shaken, and it will take time to repair.”
I needed to hear that.
Thanks to all posters from beautiful Whidbey Island
Peace
Gray

Well written Gray... I think your words spoke for many others who linger here.

MarkM: fight the urge to get annoyed... if you are truly here to help us learn, then teach with patience and conviction. We're listening...

Bill: thanks indeed for going through all the headaches out in paradise to bring us our daily Cara report. It IS appreciated.

Totally unrelated: where is g034? I miss those posts.

Committee: US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
Title: The State of the Securities Markets
Date: 7/31/07
Time: 9:30 AM
Place: 538 Dirksen Senate Office Building

Publication: Printable Hearing not available at this time


Witnesses

Panel 1
Honorable Christopher Cox , Chairman, Securities and Exchange Commission

Ditto Gray.

jas-100% cash not a bad idea...wife and i are presently down 3.4% from a mere two weeks ago (would be more if not for plays on UNG)...as i posted on leisa's blog last night (and i believe she has gone to 100% cash in at least one of her accounts), few emotions rival that of having plenty of powder during a sharp correction...

With the thought in mind that the PPT is working to keep Treasury rates low (thus prices high and possibly higher yet to come), I checked the "seasonal chart" for Treaury prices and found it is positive for the next few months. I then looked at TLT, TIP, and VBISX (all of which are favorites of mine for longer term swing trades because it is very hard to make money on shorter term trades) - not too shabby, but might be due for a dip here - so they're on my list for disciplined trades.

Hope everyone will sleep well this weekend - I will sleep but I won't be happy - I had a "mental stop" on a swing, core position and then had a "senior moment" of forgetfullness - ouch!
spot

There's always a bull market somewhere.

Thank you Patchie.

I'd like to use a similar format to the democratic "debate" the other day where questions were from Youtube.

Perhaps the answers would be better with better questions?

Mark M,

Please continue to give us your expert insights. I hope you can raise your two girls with all that entails and have a few minutes to
write to this community. It is greatly appreciated.

Sarah-Hadassah

Craig...I have a couple question I am pushing to get asked.

Chairman Cox, The SEC continues to identify publicly that Regulation SHO has been working to reduce/eliminate settlement failures. How then is it that settlement information obtained under the Freedom of Information Act presents evidence that the level of fails today is far greater than it was when Regulation SHO became effective in January 2005? If SHO is working as effectively as the Commission has stated shouldn't the numbers be below the high watermark of January 2005?

Chairman Cox, all indications are that the markets are presently operating at their highest levels relative to short interests and at a time when the settlement failures are also at their highest levels. This is all being achieved as DOW continues to reach peak levels but under tremendous volatility. Is the Coimmission concerned that these metrics are all inter-related and that much of the short interest in the markets are executed into settlement failures and that the market volatility seen is partially associated with covering such failures through market raids? Has the Commission thoroughly investigated how settlement failure close-outs are being executed into the marketplace and is creating unhealthy volatility part of such equation?

Didjya hear Cramer Stop Trading? His buddy Doug Kass assures him the market will close up today. There ya go.

This week is difficult for all, for many reasons.

Let's take the weekend to relax (in all the many ways that we do) and come back at things Monday. I am surely worn down by all the market tensions and my own feeble attempts to understand what is happening and how to hedge if need be.

This remains a great blog with great commenters.

Enjoy your two day holiday. And thanks so much.

Kass is a major BEAR.

If I were going to stop the bleeding, I would get the pschology working as it has previously, that is, to lower treasuries (rates) and then run this old the ramp on Friday to give everyone the weekend to see the lower rates and higher close.

But I don't run the PPT.

Thanks Patchie, I'm sure you have more!

Geez, I need spell check.

psychology.
Run this old bull up the ramp on Friday....

Craig, were you able to get a chance to read the court documents I posted yesterday. Some amazing stuff in those documents. I am actually having a little fun with James Lyons today. His firm has been logging in and out of my site for better than an hour now as I drafted him a memo clairifying securities laws for him.

Not yet but I will over the weekend.

The whole idea of more stocks shorted than in the float should be enough one would think.

But that would be logical. Oh, and honest.

Did some more shopping today.
added BMD, INFY,KRY, GRS

IBKR (1400 shares between 21.72 and 33) is smiling at me after few painful days!

I too said the market internal suck, which I think is putting it a little more emphatically than MarkM did. I further disagree with Bill that this is a "rolling correction", but that's an argument for another time.

Perhaps Bill was only clarifying his thinking vis a vis what some of US said yesterday -- if so, that's a sign of healthy debate and nothing to get touchy about.

Internals still suck, BTW :) We need a positive, CONFIRMING close -- or at least half-hearted attempt at a dead-cat bounce to convince this reader that the market's headed anywhere but lower in the short-term.

Stocon: incase you didn't see my answer I thought I would repost it here for you.

"Pete or anyone else can you explain this please:

FOLLOW THE DOLLAR; IT TELLS THE STORY. Sure its fallen slightly in the last couple days, but unless it finds a way to erase the DEBT AND DEFICIT any time soon, this rise in the stock market is not anywhere near over.

thx Sto"

My Responce:

"Stocon its easy... the world economy is growing and U.S. corporations that are listed on the U.S. Stock Exchanges own assets all over the world: thus as long as the U.S. dollar is falling, the value of the assets of the U.S. corporations own outside the U.S. are growing not only from normal growth, but also from the growth of the currencies that are rising against U.S. currency.

YOU CAN'T LOSE BY FOLLOWING THE U.S. Dollar as long as the worlds economies are growing."

I hope that answers your question.

I know that the readers here typically discuss stock picks and not market issues but I see them all as being very correlated. If what I believe is true, much of the markets volatility is caused by market makers and prime brokerages creating the swings to panic people out to protect their financial liabilities. If a market maker sold naked short and is forced to cover they will create sell side liquidity to move the markets to cover their fails at a profit or at least not at a loss. The similar holds true for Prime Brokers who have allowed clients to illegally sell and the Prime is on the hook for the failure of that clients trade.

If we do not expose this potential no investment is safe regardless of the issuers financials. you could buy today on good news but your purchase creatd a fail that now needs to be covered and such a cover will have to take place below the sale price. Your purchase can only move to a loss for them to cover profitably.

LEND down another 10% today. It was difficult to sell the puts but it's now done. Will not buy again.

RadioShack reports next week, that's another good opportunity.

As for the discussion of a "correction", if I may add my 2c, with the DJIA at 13,000 I'd be concerned with a drop of a couple thousand points. Anything smaller is noise at these nose bleed levels. Just my opinion.

Good call 2nd!

I went ultrashort the S&P at the close(SDS), also SKF and DXD.

A crappy close doesn't portend well for a good monday open and I have no faith in the financials or their mouthpeices.

If I could find the shares I would have shorted IAI too.
THAT is a tell....no shares to short of XLF or IAI. XLF people!!! How big is the float on XLF and no shares to short in Scottrade?

If you are in cash that probably isn't bad either!

We need to renew the red wine review, I'm in need of at least one glass.

These days I pay a lot of attention, prior to buying a stock at a potential bottom, to make darn sure that when it closes it makes a good looking candle pattern. I will often sell the pos if that doesn't set up right. None of my stocks made a real good looking candle upon close, leading me to believe it's possible there's more to come.

Something about some nice dark rum and orange juice, isn't there?

Have a great weekend Bill! Cheers!

Hmmm, good idea Chris. How about Cruzan single barrel Estate, neat?

Ahhhhh. Here's to the list.
Many Thanks to Bill.

It's hard to engineer the famed 3PM Rally when you are on the phone fielding margin calls from YOUR bank.

No takers on the attempted squeeze in the financials. That had to be amusing as all hell to everyone holding the puts.

What a day for the Bears.

Thanks to those who understood what I was trying to do.

They painted the tape and forgot which way was up.
ROFLMAO

Also MarkM & Bill: I am a newbie and completely understand where both of you were coming from.

Bill carefully outlining that yeah there are threats but you have to invest the trends (aka, the fat lady is not on the stage yet)

and MarkM, yes outside price activity there are other salient things to keep in mind (aka she, also, is not on the stage but you can hear her behind the curtains la, la, la, la, la)

I respect both of your opinions, keep them coming.

Oh btw my SDS is up smartly today. It and RYCBX in my 401k are working as a nice hedge (or is that straddle) for my against the ropes miners. I am so glad that I had the guts to by them and next weeks financial calendar aint lookin' so great either.

Steve, Nevada

MarkM,
My only comment in regards to your post yesterday is that you could have gotten your point across with the traders that respect your opinion without calling out Bill or Twigg. I do that at times when I disagree with players in my field of expertise. It only inflames the others opinions. It is confrontational. And that requires that the inflamed respond by "circling the wagons".

I would find your straightjacket on discourse much too restrictive stktrader. I have reviewed my post multiple times to find the confrontational tone. I find none except a rather clearcut disagreement in message. I pointed out the language I found disagreement with then said I had to "respectfully disagree". That's a quote. I then laid out my reasons. If some find this form of argument too much for their sensibilities, I really have no response to that.

Bill,

Thanks for this wonderful forum and have a relaxing weekend.

Best,

Dave

Mark,
One thing that I always noted about "Tradesman" when he was here was the fact that his trading was highly dictated by his view of the internals. He was always talking about the transports and other indices as the backbone for setting up his daily trades. It appears to me that traders like yourself that have moved to that next level bring this type of review into play. That is a transformation I have yet to attain.
Even if you post without names or references, the players that you are directing it towards get the message. But without the counterpoint. You get it, they get it. It's just diplomacy.

my UNG has done well, thanks for guys that pointed it out... one of the few green spots on my screen. The SKF I've been long this week has also done pretty good. I think I'll sell monday morning hopefully a percent or two higher.
As far as KRY goes, my strategy was hold and wait for permit or no permit announcement then sell... Still long, still waiting. Can't bring myself to add though!
I am wondering if I will regret not taking some profits in the miners. I am long GFI and KGC, and could still sell for a nice profit but the 20% I was up a few days ago was even nicer. I am going to watch the XAU/GDX and if it breaks below its 50 day average then sell them. Here's hoping for a bounce off it!

haha guess the GDX already has broken through... I trust the XAU more anyways, especially since it reflects my bias

IMHO, Both the reaction and the counter reaction are overreactions.

Just like the Mr.Market's overreaction this week :)

Selloff continued after the close into the 4:15 bell. That sets up for a nasty overseas reaction come Monday unless Google merges with Apple over the weekend with no debt to finance the deal and Elvis appears to announce it on JWCs show. Also, some hellaciously difficult decisions as to EOM "rebalancing" next week. Nobody wants to show stocks that are off 10-15% in their client accounts and then field the phone calls as to why they are still holding these dogs etc, etc and BTW you said this was a good time to invest. So the bulls sure have their work cut out for them. And as another astute reader pointed out, the economic calendar is stacked against them as well so I am scratching my head as to how they staunch this bleeding.

stktrader, I appreciate your efforts and find your posts valuable. Bottomline, I did what I did for what I thought were very good reasons in a manner I was and am VERY comfortable with. I interrupted my sabbatical to sound the warning as loud as I could. We are now down 500+ points since. And as ooomph has pointed out, THE INTERNALS STILL SUCK.

I find it interesting that the puts on Crude Oil continue to get more expensive in each strike price even as the price of oil goes higher. I have had a buy on Jan 60 puts for a week or so at .75 (750.00 usd). When oil was lower earlier in the week, the puts were .84. Now with oil at higher prices the puts are at .94. I assume that there is fear of lower prices coming. I know there are oil analyst that believe $78 usd oil will be a double top formation.

"They painted the tape and forgot which way was up. ROFLMAO"

agunav, best laugh I've had all day.

FWIW, I was shorting XLF earlier this week via eTrade, and trading at-the-money options. You couldn't give the Aug 33 calls away today.

Bill,

Thanks so much for all your time and effort into 'educating and helping the masses'. I'm a professional and nearing senior management in the mining industry and absolutely beam when you speak about how honest, straight forward and real the mining executives and senior managers are. That is my point of view as well and one of the reasons I'm in this dynamic industry.

I'm VERY new to taking control of my personal investing strategy and I am absolutely delighted by the wealth of knowledge and experience that not only you but your many team mates express in this blog. I relate much of my life experiences to sports and on the practice field there can be scuffles between athletes that are both highly driven to succeed. That's how you and Mark came across to me. I loved it! Here is why:

Guys, the more you hammer certain viewpoints around, the more 'inexperienced' investors like me have a chance to really begin to understand the nuances you take for granted because you live and breathe the material every day.

Bill, if you are going to the PDAC next year, I would like the opportunity to buy you a cup of coffee (or dark run and OJ as one other reader mentioned earlier, NICE!) as thanks for this noble blog.

FYI: I have taken the plunge with a position in WGI. As for KRY, the permitting process can be long and drawn out for what seems no good reason. I do not believe that management would purposely mislead the investor.

Cheers

Rugger

On the blog My 1st Million at 33 (http://www.1stmillionat33.com), he tracks the XAU put/call ratio. He notes that when the put/call ratio spikes over 5, it is good for an extended XAU bull run. In the past year it has only happened 3 times, with this Thursday reaching 7.3. Hopefully things play out like the last two times with one month returns over 20%!

* 6/12/06 XAU put/call ratio = 6.7, 6/13/06 XAU intraday low = 119.11, 7/12/06 XAU intraday high = 150.70, a gain of 26.5%
* 6/26/07 XAU put/call ratio = 5.3, 6/27/07 XAU intraday low = 130.83, 7/20/07 XAU intraday high = 159.14, a gain of 21.6%
* 7/25/07 XAU put/call ratio = 7.3, 7/26/07 XAU intraday low = 144.50, …

bobj-that's exactly the kind of unexpected post that makes this blog such a great resource...thank you.

when things get too positive, someone reminds you it may be time to get negative...and when things get too negative...

Horatio, I loved your post, which made me laugh.

MarkM, so glad to read your comments again. Thank you for making them.

MarkM/All-

Besides Monday's Asian & Euro reaction to our continued decline, many REITs are reporting earnings next week, including Simon Property (SPG) and General Growth Properties(GGP), both down almost 4% today, as well as Dow components Verizon(VZ), Procter & Gamble(PG), and General Motors(GM). Lastly, Friday's July jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is also due and I think those numbers can affect the markets significantly. The bulls have a lot of work to do next week.

Stktrader: since you are looking at Jan. options, have you considered the fact that oil futures are currently in "backwardation" mode, that is, further out months are cheaper than near term? You say "I assume that there is fear of lower prices coming." Evidently you are far from alone in thinking that. I don't know how the Jan. contract has traded this week relative to spot, but that may be the reason.

To expand on the post above re: XAU put/call ratio.
Those charts came from www.smallinvestors.com
They chart the ratios for SPX, XAU, NDX, OEX, and DJX
http://www.smallinvestors.com/SP500/indexoptions.htm
http://www.smallinvestors.com/SP500/indexoptionvalueratios.htm
The second link has more ratios for each stock.

Interesting that in the past week the SPX, XAU, and NDX put/call ratios spiked up but the OEX and DJX didn't.

Then on http://tradermike.net he has a chart of Worden's T2108 (% of NYSE stocks above their 40 day moving averages). It shows an incredible negative divergence between the T2108 and the NYSE composite. But to really muddy the waters, the T2108 is at a level usually seen with bottoms. For those of us without T2108 he gives the symbols for stockcharts.com for % above 50 day ma:
$SPXA50R, $NYA50R, $NAA50R (I couldn't come up with a combination for XAU, HUI or GDX.)

So the XAU (GDX is similar) with this drop has retraced:
38% of the October - July move
50% of the mid March - July move
~50% of the end June - July move
The XGD.TO is not in the same positions presumably because of the Cdn$.

I just thought I would throw out a few more data points for everyone to consider before Monday. lol

Bill: thank you again for your efforts with your great daily comments, in spite of paradise problems!
MarkM and G034 and all: Together with Bill's knowledge and teaching, your efforts for this community is what makes billcara.com the best source for free and clear thinking, with clever ideas and useful directions. I hope you can keep on coming here. The community needs its best minds to win the day against the new Evil Empire (most HB&B + the 0,1% of rich population + rotten governments making away with our resources and money - I'm Italian, so I know what rotten governors means unfortunately).

During this week:
SP500 -4,9% (1 year = +15%)
USO +1,3% (US Oil Fund ETF; 1 year = -20%)
Gold spot -3,4% (approx.)
NZD to Yen = 6,7% (Yen got stronger against a speculative currency after losing more than 20% in the last 2 years).

So what do we have?
1) Finally we had a little repricing.
Even higher asset prices means (for businesses) that does not make sense to expand. The more projects you do, the more money you lose, because the yield is too low. This situation will not help the economy. But...
2) We can change this with inflation. And we have it as we can see from food and oil prices (and wages in Europe and China).
3) Mild price inflation and mild asset deflation can help solve the current unbalanced conditions. God only knows if the change will be soft and slow or very quick and dramatic.
4) The safe haven now could be the Asian currencies more than gold. China and Japan can keep on destroying their currencies, but I think that now this is hurting them too (inflation again, they need raw materials and food at the end of the day!). The quick change of the rate of exchange between Yen and New Zealand Dollar (New Zealand economy is rather sound) shows this trend. Maybe it will change again in short time. But for long time oriented investors, I would feel safer with some money in Asian currencies, and some in gold, just as ultimate resource when the paper money will show some more cracks. It will, at least thanks to more money printing, because the rotten governments have to pay for what they do...

- Housing -
Here there is an interesting point of view about a change in the bankruptcy laws that may stop the slide in real estate values before it "turns into an avalanche that crushes lenders and homeowners alike."
http://tinyurl.com/yrockz

Keep posting, Mark. Your insights are valuable, and your tone is fine.
EJ

Looking at a bunch of stocks this morning and many of them were way up in after hours trading on Friday (according to Yahoo Finance). For example, the DIA was up 1.43%, IWM up 2.18%, XLF up .82%, Mo up 1.24%, etc.

QQQQ and SPY not up that much, but still definately in the green and it's always hard to tell with SPY because of the 4:15 close.

That last half hour drop seemed somewhat artifical, so will be really interesting to see how Monday opens.

Isn't "Freedom of Speech" great !!!!

Even if the mkt's are manipulated,,lol.