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July 13, 2007
Cara’s Daily Commentary, Fri., July 13, 2007, 8:06 AM
Market Chat
The $41 billion acquisition of Canada’s Alcan Aluminum (AL) by Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) clearly set the tone yesterday.
This was not the usual Private Equity monster deal. Instead, this was the global mining oligopoly getting even more powerful, which is to say that metals prices are likely to remain very high for many years. That’s inspiring.
The DJIA posted its best day of 2007. Treasury yields moved higher on the 2-year and 10-year note, and 30-year bond. The depreciation of the dollar continued as the Euro and Pound reached record heights. As expected, there was a run up in precious metals.
Wal-Mart (WMT) lifted +2.5 pct after same store sales beat expectations, and Intel (INTC), up +5.5 pct after Banc of America Securities raised its 12-month price target to $29.
Aluminum, Industrial Suppliers, Consumer Finance, and Platinum, Gold and Silver led the Bulls. Hotels, down -0.79 pct was the market laggard on this big day.
Today (Friday 13th) is one the superstitious looks to avoid.
International Economics Review
US Economic Calendar for today and the week
Econoday Weekly International Report
International Equity Markets Review
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Yesterday was a remarkable day in North American equity markets. The DJIA closed at 13861, just off the session high, which was a 2007 high.
There is a lot of technical support in the 12800 area (May-June-07 trading), which is about -8 pct below the present level. I would be inclined to have stops at that level, or higher.
There is even more support down at about the 12050 level of March-07. I suspect that when the present liquidity conditions are tightened, there will be a rush to the sidelines that could take the market down significantly – to the 12000 level as a minimum, and ultimately to below 10000.
That hardly seems likely today as traders are looking at blue sky. But, there is a credit bubble and a Japanese Carry Trade issue that could unwind this rally and send prices down sharply.
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Shanghai was flat, but other markets were strong.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
The Nikkei Dow was strong, gaining +255 (+1.42 pct) to close at 18239, well above technical support.
The Mar-07 16600 support level is the critical one to watch this summer. It seems to be getting far off, which means the higher we go, the higher we need to raise the protective stops.
I set mental stops no worse than -8 pct from the cycle high, which, in the case of the Nikkei 225 index just happens to be above 16600 now. If violated, I would be out.
In the case of the Nikkei 225, I wouldn’t be around to see 16600 if that were to happen.
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
The Shanghai Composite was flat in today’s session.
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Heng Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
The Sensex index was flat after being very strong in yesterday’s session, closing near an all-time record high.
Europe>
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.
Like many markets, the Footsie had been very strong. There is technical support in the 6400-6500 April and June levels. However, the real underpinning of the FTSE appears to be the 6000 level of March-07.”
Should the FTSE drop to 6500 I would be out and would then expect a test of 6000.
At 7:25am ET today, the FTSE is strong.
The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch
This data is supplied every day by the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc.
Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 gainers.
Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 losers.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the previous session.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes in the previous session. This is a good list to watch anytime markets start trending in the extreme. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes. That btw is called Money Flow.
Here is the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks
Here, from “Chris” (in Indianapolis) – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which David takes from Worden (using Welles Wilder calculations), are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30:
Today there are 46 above 70 and zero below 30, courtesy of yesterday’s rally.
RSI > 70 (12 of 46)
RSI < 30 (0)
Here, from “David” in upper New York State, are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for the previous session.
Bonds & Yields Review
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.
US Dollar Review
Here is the chart of the end of the week trading.
I have been asking rhetorically, “When do we see a trade-weighted USD in the 70’s?” Soon, my friends. It’s at 80.66 at this point.
Commodities Review
I have said here repeatedly that when the $CRB rises above 320, the Fed will try to step in – if they can.
It’s now at 322.96.
This is like sticking a finger in the dike. At some point, the levee will break.
Oil prices are headed higher because (as I have been saying) OPEC won’t accept USD made up from twenty wooden nickels. The lower the USD falls, the higher the oil price will rise, other factors being equal.
This morning the e-mini Aug contracts are at 72.60. Oil came down sharply during mid-day.
Here is the e-miNY Aug-07 Crude Oil chart.
Gold & Precious Metals Review
“Gold… will move higher as confidence in the USD breaks down.” It’s now up to $668, but has not yet broken out.
Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.
Community Chat
Yesterday, I addressed the reason I decided to come to Bahamas to live and work on a permanent basis. In addition to my love for the people here, where I feel right at home, there is business and investment opportunity like say Florida and California fifty years ago.
So, yes, I have come here to do deals, direct investments, engage in trading, and through that, and my interaction with the people and lifestyle, to enjoy myself to the maximum.
The weather has been fabulous all week. My only regret (other than lacking Internet service here at the Nassau Harbour Club) is that I cannot depart for the Exumas on one of these yachts.
Here are some new friends on Dolphin Dancer leaving for Staniel Cay – perhaps my favorite place on earth.
Yesterday’s major arrival was a brand new, sleek 98-foot Italian masterpiece.
Capt Rick tells me that there is quickly growing gap between the rich and the not-so-rich, and that his 80-foot Hatteras, once considered a large yacht, is now “strictly entry level”.
Correction to an earlier blog: this week’s Independence Day was #34 (not a different number I gave). Also, the sign out front of the Nassau Harbour Club was not removed; it was just 100 pct hidden by landscaping. Now the bushes have been cut back, I can see the sign – if I stand 20 feet in front and look directly at it!
Marketing the NHC never has been a priority it seems.
As for me, I am about to hit the road running. I am already connecting to the requisite legal structures for me to establish a Trader Wizard group of Funds for those who are able to meet a minimum investment of $100,000 and complete the requisite account opening documents. I will likely begin in August to start marketing.
In terms of the timed offering of the Trader Wizard Funds, the following is a loosely tentative schedule, which I will further work on next week:
• Non-listed Guyana gold bullion producing Limited Partnership (in August)
• Bahamas Real Property Limited Partnership (preliminary outline by Aug. 30)
• Cara 100 Microcap Fund (by Aug. 30)
• Cara 100 Speculative Fund (by Sept. 15)
• Cara 100 Fixed Income Fund (by Sept. 15)
• Cara 100 Precious Metal Securities Fund (by Sept. 15)
• Cara 100 Precious Metal Bullion Fund (by Oct. 15)
• Cara 100 Large Cap and ETF Fund (by Oct. 15)
Essentially the type of client I will be seeking here in The Bahamas are those who seek to go offshore for asset protection, estate planning and wealth management services from me. The vehicle in place to receive funds is fully registered and legally compliant, which is the reason I can get started so quickly.
For accounts below 100,000, including all accounts that will remain onshore, I shall try for October 15 to make available an electronic advisory service for individual owners and managers of securities accounts who have funds on deposit with their own local brokers. The user platform has been designed and implemented, but there needs to be a database built for managing it at my end.
For all onshore accounts, I will remain only an advisor -- subject to approval of SCB registration here for Cara Trading Advisors (Bahamas) Ltd -- and will not be receiving or managing those funds in The Bahamas. I will offer this service subject to conditions, including cancellation by either party on one month’s notice.
There are securities rules and regulations both here and elsewhere that I must adhere to, which will be the ultimate determinant of the timing. I also need to hire a head trader, which again requires meeting certain rules and regs.
Trading will occur first in those Funds I can manage most easily. Where my full concentration is required on minute-to-minute market action, I will not be set up here before October 15 (again subject to regulatory approval).
TraderWizard.com will be offering all readers an inexpensive monthly publication for each Sub-Fund. Karl Leutenegger and I expect to have the initial Cara Microcap 100 Report available in early September. Collaborators to the Cara 100 Microcap Report will be compensated accordingly. The Report will not be consistent with the trading I intend to do using my own resources.
The tentative date for publication of the “Lessons From the Trader Wizard” book is the week following Oct. 15. Discounted pre-sales will cease August 30.
BillCara.com will remain completely free and non-commercial unless I decide to run information banners about my various business involvements. Of course, I am open to sponsorship from certain financial service companies I use because I need to hire staff and pay for servers and all.
This is a lot of planning on my part, but I do know that wherever we are in this world, it is the Web and our shared interests and values that connect us.
In a few days, I hope to be able to re-start the reader comments and discourse. Bear with me as I get my feet on the ground here in The Bahamas. It’s hard you know – too much time with my feet in the pool.
Somebody has complained that I edited their comments. That, to my knowledge, did not happen in this case. Very few comments have I edited or deleted for all the thousands that have been submitted. I’ll look into this later.
My remark about an Editorial Board is simple. There will be some people I select to direct e-mail to an associate who will then go in and take appropriate action. Until the new MT Blog Publishing software 4.0 comes out of beta, that will have to be the system because I have almost zero time to manage the comments/discourse here, and I simply will not accept the personal responsibility for the actions of some people who intend to do me harm on this blog. Trust me there are some. End of discussion.
But let this be known. I do not edit comments of the regular and most popular commenters here.
Anyway I am here, and at the very least I am getting into shape, and feeling more relaxed. Here, you see, I am having lunch at poolside – a glass of Absolut-Cranberry and a side of (fat-free) granola. Holistic health.
Another day in paradise. The Nassau Harbour Club is actually quite inexpensive; certainly no Ocean Club or Atlantis, but it meets my needs for now. (LOL)
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 13, 2007 08:06:10 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary
Discourse
back on? beautiful..XAU broke 143 exactly a week ago, and i hope all of you went along for the ride. discipline called for paring back yesterday, but i see it stair-stepping from here.
Posted by: 2nd_ave ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
July 13, 2007 9:03 AM [link]
BMD-did anyone notice joel jarding bought 25K shares in the open mkt at $3.76US on thursday? this one's a keeper.
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
July 13, 2007 9:04 AM [link]
Dear Bill,
Congratulations on a successful move. I think the picture of your feet says it all.
I took some positions in Eldorado Gold yesterday during the pile-out after the turkish mine was ordered shut. I'm not so much betting on the Turkish courst systems as I am that this baby will climb the proverbial "wall of worry" and at least re-visit the 20 day sma.
Regarding Crystallex, this latest press release out of VZ threw me for a loop, and I think the pessimistic view on this is the right one. Basically, VZ implied that Gold Reserve's build-permit in no way guaranteed receipt of the exploitation permit, and that environmental considerations may be trumping financial ones vis a vis mining in VZ (no pun). GRZ actually rose yesterday. Absurd. I've really lost touch with these two, and am probably only going to buy on scary drops or after permit receipt if the price doesn't move much.
Finally, you have no idea how much I've missed you guys!
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
July 13, 2007 9:30 AM [link]
Moin from Germany,
great pictures...especially the third!
U.S. Retail Sales Fell More Than Forecast in June
Retail sales in the U.S. fell in June by the most in almost two years, raising concern near- record gasoline prices and falling home values are taking a bigger toll on consumers than economists forecast.
The 0.9 percent decrease followed a revised 1.5 percent gain the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Purchases excluding automobiles unexpectedly fell 0.4 percent, the most since September.
Hey, posters, any thoughts on WFMI? My first thought was what is the CEO doing that we don't know.
Posted by: mrmockbird at
July 13, 2007 9:53 AM [link]
I bought wfmi just before the announcement, and it does worry me that whole foods has a history of being aggressive toward wild oats. they routinely set up shop wherever oats build a store and it's done real close to choke off revenue. In the store that I shop it also disappoints me that they sell plants that can not survive in our climate zone and my wife and I both feel that their baking goods have loss some quality and reliability over the three years shopping there. I bought at 39.5 and wondering if their integrity is on a slippery slope. Once you loose it, very very hard to get it back. On the flip side, I doubt that another mkt can replace and meet my ideals.
Posted by: jasper at
July 13, 2007 10:12 AM [link]
I sold my WFMI ahead of the news, and I am glad of it even though the market doesn't seem to care much about the character of the company's CEO.
The great day in tech yesterday has me intrigued. I bought some AMAT just ahead of its move. And MU -- another of Bill's great calls -- is in a nice steady uptrend now. And like many others, I wish I had bought INTC earlier in the year when it was still under $20.
I've been playing calendar MSFT calls recently and earning some nice profit on the premium. I'll have to rethink that strategy if the stock breaks hard ahead of next week's earnings.
Finally, I've noted that home builder stocks are getting pulled up along with the general market. Last year, I would have been shorting more at this point. Now I'm going to wait -- these stocks were very oversold technically and due for a bounce. But I don't believe for an instant the housing market has bottomed.
Posted by: number2son at
July 13, 2007 10:34 AM [link]
Moin again,
here comes a move that isn´t really surprising...
Iran Asks Japan to Pay Yen for All Oil, Starting Immediately
Iran asked Japanese refiners to switch to the yen to pay for all crude oil purchases, to counter the risk that U.S. dollar transfers may be frozen by increased sanctions.
Iran wants yen-based transactions ``for any/all of your forthcoming Iranian crude oil liftings,'' according to a letter sent to Japanese refiners that was signed by Ali A. Arshi, general manager of crude oil marketing and exports in Tehran at the National Iranian Oil Co. The request is for all shipments ``effective immediately,'' according to the letter, dated July 10 and obtained by Bloomberg News.
At stake are payments from Japanese refiners to Iran that rose 12 percent last year to 1.24 trillion yen ($10.1 billion), according to the finance ministry in Tokyo. Iran is Japan's third- largest oil supplier, behind Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Oh, the discourse section back again!!
I missed it so muhh during the last 4-5 days.
Bill, glad to see that you reached there safe and getting well settled.
Posted by: JogyP at
July 13, 2007 11:09 AM [link]
retail sales - June saw the largest drop in two years, but hey, 'consumer sentiment' is up. Does that mean people are buying less, but are happy about it?
Personally my own spending is pared back to the bone (my wardrobe shows it :-) ) to focus completely on debt servicing. Looking for freedom, man.
WFMI - where does this guy get the time to play around on bulletin boards all day? Doesn't he have a company to run? Isn't the share price languishing? The (lack of) maturity level is striking. Retail food is a brutal, low margin operation with lots of competition. Let up your focus and it's 'game over.'
KRY - do you guys playing this one ever get the feeling like you are being jerked around a bit? VZ can shut down a massive communications group in a day, but the permit is a "yes, no , maybe, not so fast, etc.," process dragging on for months? I suspect VZ/Chavez could sell this mine tomorrow with one phone call to Madam Wu and be very happy about it on many levels. Feels like a dice roll to me - not that that's bad, but I still think it feels like gambling.
#2son - Housing may be oversold (does that term even apply when shares fall through a trap door?) but there's gotta be an easier way to make a buck than play in that mess. I'm curious what kind of signals you would need to see to get in - my Google News alert for the term "foreclosures" is still going off left and right, dragging in stories of sustained and increases in foreclosure rates in many, many markets. Look at this latest lame, and doomed, effort in MA to stall foreclosures.
I went diving in Belize, to the Blue Hole. There's a moment where you go over the edge and it's just blue-black below you, sharks circling above you, thousands of feet of nothing, death waiting down there - truly "the Abyss." That's what the US housing sector feels like to me.
Welcome back, Bill. Looking forward to see what the next year brings.
Regards, all,
Mike
NYC
Posted by: MikeNYC at
July 13, 2007 11:19 AM [link]
Dear Bill, Hello everyone,
Am so glad we can listen to each other again! Thank you all for your generosity.
Thank you Bill for sharing your Blue Sky. (picture)
Posted by: moneygenie at
July 13, 2007 11:20 AM [link]
Chris,
Can you post a link regarding the VZ news about GRZ. I was trying to figure out the reason for the drop in the last 2 days, and I even added more at 5.4.
Posted by: JogyP at
July 13, 2007 11:24 AM [link]
Regarding KRY and GRZ, I rather see this as just another shakeout. KRY has been gradually walked down this week, on low volume.
As always, the stock will move on news. But in the meantime, posts on this forum and (if you dare) the Yahoo board, the sentiment is clearly negative and growing more so by the hour. That sentiment becomes more intense as other stocks in the sector and broader market register large gains.
Indeed, it it weren't for EGO's collapse yesterday, KRY would have been the worst performer on my list of mining stocks.
Certainly this remains a roll of the dice, but one that is calculated and not governed by mere chance.
Posted by: number2son at
July 13, 2007 11:38 AM [link]
Congrats on a successful move, sounds like everything is coming together nicely for you. Must admit, I'm quite envious. I'd have no problems making a similar move if an opportunity presented itself, but my wife can't handle the big insects so I guess mosquitos will have to suffice :)
Can't remember who first recommended this book, The Great Wave (http://tinyurl.com/33hr53) but I'd like to re-recommend it. I've only read the first 100 pages or so thus far, but considering it was written over a decade ago, it's eerie seeing the parallels between today and inflationary cycles in the 13th and 16th centuries: growing rich-poor gap, increasing commodities/property/rents, stagnating/falling real wages, govt deficits and currency debasement.
Good to have discourse section back, and glad you weren't as absent as you had previously alluded to!
Posted by: proudPapa at
July 13, 2007 12:04 PM [link]
GRS:
Going down almost every day on low volume.
Now at the lows of the day at $12.13.
Just wondering anyone has an opinion on the GRS at these levels.
Posted by: JogyP at
July 13, 2007 12:05 PM [link]
JogyP:
I like GRS. I've owned it since 08/05. I added to my position after May earnings disappointment. Their Ocampo mine is ramping up to full production. I am surprised by its continued weakness. My gut says to add more but I already own a bunch. This "strategy" has gotten me into trouble in the past... But then, it sure looks like a bargain.
Posted by: tyro_mon at
July 13, 2007 12:30 PM [link]
Hi Bill,
Glad to see your island universe is unfolding as it should. Perhaps when the book royalties start flowing in you can leverage them into a Hatteras of your own and use it to ferry the faithful over from Pier 66 for a little B&B ( Bahamas & Business ). Sounds like a tax write-off in the making!
Posted by: TerryC at
July 13, 2007 12:41 PM [link]
does anyone know when wgdf will be amex listed?
Posted by: Hallvardo at
July 13, 2007 12:41 PM [link]
Re WGDF on AMEX: Probably about the time when Friends & Family dump their 35 cent shares acquired last year. Read your A/R & apply due dilligence.
Posted by: TerryC at
July 13, 2007 12:49 PM [link]
Just like Bill said...
"Iran Asks Japan to Pay Yen for Oil, Start Immediately"
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awYHprN5i52c&refer=home
Posted by: BUstudent at
July 13, 2007 1:06 PM [link]
Re: the Yen move - it's a double blow.
Not only does it knock a leg out from under the petro-buck, but anything that helps push the Yen out of the cellar has to have the carry-traders sweating bullets. Last thing those guys want is more expensive yen on the unwind, no?
Posted by: MikeNYC at
July 13, 2007 1:29 PM [link]
wfmi got slammed on cnbc....for too much increasing competition. I have sampled many of these stores, and none to date to my surprise, meets the standards of whole food. Quality of customer service is not there. Prices are actually higher on many everyday products at the competitors. Just last night on Bravo..top chef...at Fresh Markets the competing chefs could not get fresh scallops...only frozen ones. I have my concerns about whole foods but nothing, yet, comes close. Any other "foodies" out there have a thought on this?
Posted by: jasper at
July 13, 2007 1:31 PM [link]
KRY,GRZ and expropriation ...
1st, it's GREAT to have commentary back ..
I don't think Chavez would just grab KRY/GRZ assets. He paid for the telco, and Caracas Electric. I didn't read much complaint on the price. He is negotiating price with XOM and COP. Gold mining doesn't have the strategic importance of the above industries, and in my view, won't be taken.
Chavez has big exposure in US with CITGO, a company with $32 billion annual revenues (not to mention banking relations, etc.) He wants to have his fun bashing Bush, but does not want to a risk a Cuban-style blocade. That would hurt his people big-time.
Also, when I was getting permits in VZ (for telecom) the process was equally opaque, delay-ridden, and frustrating. That's just VZ bureaucracy, IMHO.
Bill,
Thanks for turning on comments. It seemed to help my portfolio somehow.
In terms of WFMI, is it possible that the CEO's outbursts on chat rooms could endanger the Oats buyout, which is causing the increase in price? Or is it just the index funds carrying it higher?
Or maybe it's the fact that I'd rather eat frozen scallops and overpriced milk than cardboard.
"It's more of an embarrassment than an issue of profound ethical and legal consequence," says Eric Dezenhall, a crisis communications consultant. "It shows a degree of obsessiveness that's a little disturbing."
Maybe he should join Bill's blog. :)
I don't understand why WFMI's institutional holders don't simply push out the CEO/founder. Corp. "governance" is still as disgusting as ever.
Even if they're a-moral, do they and the directors think it HELPS the brand to keep a CEO with creepy, weird, vindictive and possibly illegal habits? Should we still trust that his organic foods are truly organic?
Surely, there are top-rate executives in-house longing to restore WFMI's image and get their shot to grow the company to the next level.
Sorry I don't "do" links, I'm too dumb, but it's in that VHEADLINE publication you get it when you search on google.
http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=74618
And yes, Mike...You're right. It seems like a bad fairy tale. It's Jack and the Beanstalk meets The Wizard of OZ, with a little "Boy who Cried Wolf" thrown in for added measure.
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
July 13, 2007 2:42 PM [link]
Excellent article in Minyanville describing the current inflation without inflation environment:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=13354
Inflation would be 10% today if calculated in the same way as in the 1980's!
Posted by: moab at
July 13, 2007 3:43 PM [link]
Mark Hulbert on the lack of irrational exuberance in the market: http://tinyurl.com/24zyna
I agree that there seems to be a suspicious lack of bullish sentiment right now, which may give the broad market another month or two of upward momentum. Gold and oil may move up on "fundamentals," but I think the market moves up simply because there is too much money side-lined right now...if the DJIA starts adding 100 points a week, would that be enough to draw you in...that's pretty much what you want if you're a bear, 'cause you just can't short right now...as much as I hate to think this way, going long (even DDM/QLD/SSO in place of DXD/QID/SDS), is probably the smart play right now...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
July 13, 2007 6:43 PM [link]
Crude oil puts:
Soon I think that it will be a good time to buy puts on Crude Oil. The February 60 puts expire mid January and cost 1,170.00 usd. I will wait for the next move up to 75-78 to buy, maybe for around 850-900/option.
KRY/WGDF:
I have a GTC on WGDF at 2.45 for 3K shares and I am looking for another 2K of KRY at 3.92. stk
Posted by: stktrader at
July 13, 2007 7:10 PM [link]
..and then there's the flip side of the coin, from Todd Harrison: http://tinyurl.com/2aotk5
Check out the comparison of the following two DJIA charts: 1983-1987, 2003-2007...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
July 13, 2007 7:25 PM [link]
There is one thing that confuses me about those bullish on gold due to the falling dollar and high oil prices (despite the fact that the central banks manipulate the market in the other direction). Why not just sell the dollar or buy oil instead? Central bank manipulations have less effect on these markets? Is it simply the coiled spring aspect of a market held down artificially that people are looking for?
Posted by: TennesseeTrader at
July 14, 2007 12:02 AM [link]
TennesseeTrader:
I think markets for the dollar and for oil are manipulated as well.
The US talks up the dollar while printing money. Asian finance officials (today Japan) hint at new investment funds to gradually reduce their dollar holdings.
OPEC hawks talk up oil prices, and try to restrict production, while Saudis and the US government try to keep a lid on prices. I guess you pick your poison ...
Jock, There is no doubt that Fed monetary policy by definition influences the dollar, and I probably wasn't as clear as I should have been in my initial post. I was merely pointing out that the gold market seems to be in a very reactive mode to the dollar and then the banks come in and unnaturally suppress the price (and seem to have successfully kept things at bay for a period of time). There are different dynamics involved, and the banks have not shown the same ability to prop up the dollar (as can be readily seen by the precipitous decline in the dollar).
Posted by: TennesseeTrader at
July 14, 2007 1:18 AM [link]
Congrats on the move, Bill, and thank goodness the discourse section is back!
EJ
Posted by: EJStockman at
July 14, 2007 7:24 AM [link]
These are the month to month changes in the non-durables price index for the last three months...
+1.1 +.7 +1.3 total +3.1 percent. If annualized, inflation rate is over 12% for nondurables, ie, food and gas, if it continues.
Table 9
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm
Posted by: JIM at
July 14, 2007 7:31 AM [link]
Posted by: JIM at
July 14, 2007 7:39 AM [link]
I am interested in looking into ways to invest in potential food inflation, fertilizer, farm equipment, etc. going forward. This is a very new area for me, especially fertilizers. Are there any good analysis of the fertilizer area available for public study that we could share here?
Thanks
Posted by: BRC at
July 14, 2007 7:54 AM [link]
Well, if I can't be in the islands, at least the weather is glorious here in Boston today.
For the Cara 'Mind Melders' (a weak play on Cara-mel)...I've put up some RSI7 monthly data and charts on my site. As always, best to all.
Ron
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Glad to see the discourse section back again. Learn a lot from all of the conversation which goes on here!
Posted by: bb![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
July 13, 2007 8:56 AM [link]