Moin from Germany,

have a nice well deserved break!

Not sure if this was already posted

Newmont has eliminated its entire 1.85-million-ounce gold hedge position and said it plans to monetize components of its royalty and equity portfolio in the next 12 months, resulting in the discontinuation of the company's merchant banking segment as a separate unit.

Last month, Newmont spent $578 million to terminate all of its price-capped forward sales contracts. The company will report a pretax loss of roughly $531 million on the early settlement of the contracts, after a $47 million reversal of previously recognized deferred revenue.

"With the elimination of our gold hedge book, we have renewed our commitment to maximizing gold price leverage for our shareholders," CEO Richard O'Brien said in a press release. "In addition, we are focused on delivering improvements in our operating performance and cost structure going forward."

Because of the decision to discontinue the merchant banking business, the carrying value of the division's goodwill is now classified as impaired. Consequently, Newmont expects to record a noncash charge of around $1.7 billion in the second quarter.

I have only recently begun to read your blog and I am very interested in your opinion regarding the funny money guys in hedge funds who build castles on nothing. Given the Bear Stearns debacle, do you think this is the tip of a huge iceberg where valuations of assets have nothing to do with reality? I do, and I think we are heading to an Armageddon scenario. Where does one go to invest when all around him have blinders on. I would appreciate any comments you may have. I am heavily invested overseas and in gold shares but am always looking for new opportunities.

have a safe trip.

*Sales of gold from Eurosystem Central Banks*
Hey, it's not over at all. In the last week of June ECB sold a lot of gold! But didn't they say they were stopping the sales?!?
Here it is the updated list of transactions (that is the result of sales/purchases of gold) in millions of Euro and in tons. The dates in the list are in dd/mm/yy format. The source of the data is official: http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/wfs/2007/html/index.en.html
29/06/2007 transaction -631 / 40,87 t
22/06/2007 transaction -45/ 2,8 t
15/06/2007 transaction -25/ 1,56 t
08/06/2007 transaction -59/ 3,68 t
01/06/2007 transaction -29 / 2 t
25/05/2007 transaction -191 / 11,92 t
18/05/2007 transaction -280 / 17,2 t
11/05/2007 transaction -22 / 1,4 t
04/05/2007 transaction -186 / 11,60 t
27/04/2007 transaction -195 / 12,17 t
20/04/2007 transaction -281 / 17 t
13/04/2007 transaction -31 / 1,91 t
06/04/2007 transaction -189 / 11,8 t
30/03/2007 transaction -273 / 17,04 t
23/03/2007 transaction -189 / 12,17 t
16/03/2007 transaction -256 / 16 t
09/03/2007 transaction -9 / 0,58 t
02/03/2007 transaction -34 / 2,19 t
23/02/2007 transaction -37 / 2,38 t
16/02/2007 transaction -90 / 5,8 t
09/02/2007 transaction -70 / 4,51 t
02/02/2007 transaction -39 / 2,51 t
26/01/2007 transaction -36 / 2,32 t
19/01/2007 transaction -37 / 2,38
12/01/2007 transaction -28 / 1,86 t
05/01/2007 transaction -25 / 1,61 t
29/12/2006 transaction +36 / +1,5
22/12/2006 transaction -41 / 1,24 t
15/12/2006 transaction -410
08/12/2006 transaction -71
01/12/2006 transaction -120
24/11/2006 transaction -106
17/11/2006 transaction -97
10/11/2006 transaction -180
03/11/2006 transaction -101
27/10/2006 transaction -65
20/10/2006 transaction -112
13/10/2006 transaction -15
06/10/2006 transaction -40
29/09/2006 transaction -37

Hulbert update on gold timing sentiment:

http://tinyurl.com/247vvv

Looking better.

Thanks Lelik:

So the transaction of 29/12/2006 is the only purchase?

Here's wishing you a safe journey and restful vacation, Bill. And have no fear, in your absence I'll be on the lookout for more bear traps in those miner charts. ;)

C.Note, well you're "almost" right. More properly the last time that ECB total purchases were more than sales was that time: December 2006...
The Central banks included in ECB are: Austria, Belgium, France, Finland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain.

Hi...Bill;

Just got back from a Red Lake fishing trip and really enjoyed drifting on McNeely Bay with the golf course and all those Goldcorp headframes in the background....The drilling activity in the Red Lake area is in hyperdrive and the smell of that beautiful yellow metal is in the air up there!!!!

Anyway...Bill,please take all the time you need to recharge your jets....We'll need you for the Third period though....;=)

Thanx again for all you do here ....I truly appreciate your help ...Your commentary provides all of us with much clarity in a sea of smoggy obfuscation...

Enjoy your Island retreat Bill...It is well deserved..

Cheers.......DB

Disclosure:I own shares(and or Warrants)in the following companies....

G,PG,WGI,KRY,UXGwts,SEG,CEF,SWY,DOR....SDS

Is it that difficult for US investors to buy Canadian stocks? You mentioned Silvercorp in your comments today. Some here believe they will double their next quarterly earnings, announced in mid-August. Also talk of dividends and a Hong Kong listing. This growing silver producer has flown under the radar for US investors, good to see Bill Cara bring it up in his commentary today.

IBKR - down nearly 20% from it's IPO price. And we thought we were lucky to get allocations on the IPO! After a dissapointing report last quarter, they are warning of more dissapointments to come. Stock is down 8% today.

Is this another example of rampant greed on Wall Street? If I remember right, they doubled the shares for sale for the IPO and priced it at the high end. Only hours after trading commenced, we crashed through the IPO offer price and have never regained it.

Their first earnings report was just weeks after the IPO. I find it unlikely that at the time of the IPO, the company did not know they would miss estimates and the share price would sink.

Or perhaps my judgement is clouded having to endure a 20% loss in a few months.....

Okay, SLW is flying here... the breakout has begun! Knowing that we don't want to exist PM miners / royalty plays, we still have to adhere to the mean revision right? Anyone looking to EXIT SLW here? What's a good way to deal with such breakouts (Daily + Weekly RSI-7 above 70, Daily falling below 70 signaling sell?) Just looking to see how some of you make these plays.

Bill, it will be sad to lose a great Canadian. Somehow, it was always reassuring knowing your just a few km away in Toronto. Funny how such a virtual trust can be established without having ever met someone.

Happy travels.

Holy breakout... 12.90 to 13.17 since I wrote that last comment.

Fazeli,
I guess one's feelings toward SLW depend on the price you bought it at and how long you've held it. I sold my SLW into strength this week for a modest gain. Frankly, I became frustrated being underwater with it and decided that I prefer my tangible silver producers to SLW which is a silver distributor. I might buy SLW again on a major pullback for a trade. Long PAAS and SSO.

xau at 144...looking for an entry point later today

IBKR guided light on revenue but pegged 2Q earnings at $.32-34 while estimates (from a whopping 2 analysts) is at $.33. So I guess the street was looking for an earnings beat.

Considering the lack of analyst coverage, I do not put much credence in the estimates. I think this could be another market moving press release that is used to "flush: out the IPO'ers with little patience and move shares into stronger hands.

I averaged down a bit this morning. New cost basis is $28.39. I am thinking long term here.

Well, something is up with SLW. Volume has surged and the stock has broken through long-term resistance with a vengeance.

This is very painful to watch as I was shaken out of my position immediately before this run. This was a classic amateur trading mistake.

Here's hoping others were more fortunate.

Good Morning Bill/All

Firstly a hearty thank-you to Bill and all those who have kindly shared their thoughts and ideas here on Bill's blog. I don't remember exactly how I came across this blog but I opened an investment account about 2 years ago and must have linked to it while trying to learn about markets and investing.There is an Egyptian saying : " Education is like a boat on the water." Thanks to Bill and the many contributors to this site we can learn to navigate our course as from a boat on the water as opposed to splashing around desperately in the water. Our individual crafts may not all be grand as those of the big swinging dicks but they are swifter and more maneuverable.
Once again thank you Bill and best wishes for a happy , healthful and successful relocation. Looking forward to the resumption of dispatches from your Bahamian headquarters.

Fazeli:

Fred is right, its how long ago you bought and at what profit margin you are happy with. Bill taught me to go for at least the ‘Buffett Standard’ i.e. 26% or more, if you can stand it.

About a year ago I began accumulating SLW for the second go around (I had retired this horse after cashing in earlier in the year) resulting in a $8.399 ASP so selling now makes sense for me and stays well over the ‘BS’ mentioned above.

Further, although target prices are higher, even Bill says $18+ I want to have more cash on the sidelines for buying physical PM I’ve been accumulating from my local coin store.

Hope this helps.

RE: SLW

Bought many shares from 7 to 9 and have held and held and held. I usually sell calls against holdings after a nice break upward. Sold several Sept 15's today @ fifty cents.

Great stock that should be a long term hold for all portfolios.

Figures. I dump a greedy, option hogging, go nowhere pig out of my account (GPR) and it finally makes a big move.

Ah well. I exchanged it for WGDF, so let's see where that goes.

Thanks for the feedback.

I've held SLW through the ups and downs for over a year, never having been agile enough to jump in and out. My buy-in is about 9.8, so I've made a pretty penny or two here, but the question is how to choose a timely point to exit. For example, I had made a great profit yesterday as well, but the daily and weekly charts were hinting at a breakout, and here we are... I'm wondering how experienced traders gauge the extent of such a push and estimate a good time to exit.

cb, selling the covered call options is a decent hedge and if called, still locks in great gains. I'll test it out.

Bill,
When to protect profits with these wonderful positions (uxg,slw, ego, wdgf) is weighing on me.
I'm actually underwater in KGC and GRZ, and more or less flat with GRS and GG. BUT the gains far outweigh any losses.

I think that you've warned us in the past that after the rally, a broad sell off becomes more likely. I'm thinking that xau index is the key. If the breakout from the level you've mentioned occurs, then tech indicators can be applied.

As we go deeper into this rally, in an earlier post you give some guidelines regarding cashflow, but if so inclined I'd be interested in an elaboration...particularly as it might apply to some of the laggards like KGC and GFI. If we look at the ratio of price to cashflow, is there a criterion that would be good to keep in mind?
Thanks.

Bill,
I wish you a safe trip and a restful mini-vacation.
I look forward to the resumption of your posts.
Best.

jasper,

my sense is that this rally will run alot farther than just the next couple of days. the skepticism out there will keep it going.

Hah. So I'm not the only person shaken out of a silver position the day before it moved? Well, it doesn't make me feel better to have company. But I had that thing for a looong time now. It's pretty small so that .20 move isn't going to make me or break me, but it still stinks.

2nd,
Are you buying into the GDX and using UXG to track it?

SLW, I took some profits this AM and will wait for a small 3% or so pullback to re-enter.

I've been in and out with some of this volatility and so far so good. Of course I'm standing in the station right now and the train could leave me high and dry....

Nice pop with MU, UXG, GFI and even GRS is hanging tough. If you were watching GFI was 15.50 in the premkt. 1000 shares would be up $500 or so in two hours. Not bad.

Molycor (MOR) is off to the races, up 17% today. Looks looks Kaimu might be right with this one.

2nd:
Looks like you are right on the rally's strength and the OIH direction yesterday.

Bad day so far for me: On top of the DUG, SDS drop, 10% drop in IBKR.

Added more GFI and GRS.

craig-no pullback in gdx to buy into so far...if we don't get one, plan to jump in anyway...i think we are long overdue for a major rally in the miners..thought about it yesterday with the divergence between gold prices and gdx, shoulda done it then, but if this is the start of a major rally (and the skepticism hulbert mentions should drive it), then it doesn't matter where you jump in on the way up...i think the nem announcement of closing their hedge book in june is another sign of higher prices..

Thanks for the quick response 2nd.

Looks like you are having one of those "giddy" days! Good on ya!

Fred, I think he said "I'll double my money in a month" or something like that. Well, it's 26% today, so far, so he's looking good. Nice to see Cara readers making dough.

MikeNYC, misery does not love company. ;)

What really hurts is that I had a hedged position with calls, and had it going for a long time, riding the range from 10 to 12 more than a few times.

To miss this break out after my long history with the stock is especially painful. Like getting jilted.

I'll get it over it though, and learn a good lesson from it, too. You always have to find the positive in every situation. In this case, learn from a trading mistake so as not to repeat it.

I was impatient. Bought a semi full position of GFI which is already represented in an etf that has served me well: EZA/s.africa.

Anyone following GRZ...in lieu of KRY? GRZ is my smallest and most in the red position.

Just using GDX, for traders, may be a good way to capture volatility with less risk. Wondering if we go into the weekend with the breakout Bill keeps referring to in XAU. I often hear a BO has to be "decidely so." Meaning: good volume and intraday acceleration..and ???? Whatever it is, the positioning and hanging in with this sector is bearing welcome fruit.

2nd,
GDX looks to be softening a bit....

By appointment only at an ultra-private Bahamanian club?

Why does the wedding scene from the Godfather pop into my head?

"Bonasera, Bonasera!"

Corleone: We've known each other many years, but this is the first time you ever came to me for counsel or for help. I can't remember the last time that you invited me to your house for a cup of coffee, even though my wife is godmother to your only child. But let's be frank here. You never wanted my friendship. And uh, you were afraid to be in my debt.
Bonasera: I didn't want to get into trouble.
Corleone: I understand. You found paradise in America, you had a good trade, you made a good living. The police protected you and there were courts of law. And you didn't need a friend like me. But uh, now you come to me and you say - 'Don Corleone, give me justice.' But you don't ask with respect. You don't offer friendship. You don't even think to call me Godfather. Instead, you come into my house on the day my daughter is to be married, and you, uh, ask me to do murder for money.
Bonasera: I ask you for justice.
Corleone: That is not justice. Your daughter is still alive.
Bonasera: Let them suffer then, as she suffers. How much shall I pay you?
Corleone (after standing and turning his back): Bonasera, Bonasera. What have I ever done to make you treat me so disrespectfully? If you'd come to me in friendship, then this scum that ruined your daughter would be suffering this very day. And if by chance an honest man like yourself should make enemies, then they would become my enemies. And then they would fear you.
Bonasera: Be my friend - - Godfather. (The Don shrugs. Bonasera bows toward the Don and kisses the Don's hand.)
Corleone: Good. (The Don puts his hand on Bonasera's shoulder.) Someday, and that day may never come, I'll call upon you to do a service for me. But uh, until that day - accept this justice as a gift on my daughter's wedding day.
Bonasera: Grazie, Godfather.
Corleone: Prego.

Have a great trip Bill. Chill out hard. And no, I don't think you're a crime lord. :-)

Grazie, Bill.

Mike
NYC

Anyone care to share their current holdings in gold miners and why or point me to a review I can read for this novice lurker?
S

In a similar vein as srolaser, I've been searching Bill's site for the three gold penny dreadful's he laid out, but I haven't found them. Does someone have those names?

Regards,

Mike
NYC

SLW -

It has tried to breakout above 12 for 2 years, and has finally done so. So, why not put a stop in just under 12, and see if we can't take the ride ?

I decided to get out of SLW at 13.25 and see if I can re-enter at a lower price. With RSI-7 Daily at 87 and Weekly at 75, I figure there will be a chance to get it back towards the 12.5 region, the prior long-term resistance level.

Some names Bill has mentioned recently are:

WHY.v
SAG.to
KCR.to
PMV.v

These are all fairly illiquid so make sure to let the food digest before you dive in!

Mike NYC:
Think they are (all TSX)
WHY, SAG, KCR

SAG is trading at $.035 - $.04 so can certainly be classed as a penny stock! The stock moves 12.5% with a $.005 move in the stock price.

Miners:
Took a position in GDX @ 40.18.
So far so good.

srolaser, Mike, Bill provided a link to the BMO report a few days ago. Maybe a week? Not too far to go back. It might come up in a site search.

craig-not really finding a good entry point, but it's the strength and persistence of this move that makes me think it's got a ways to go...i'm going to play it medium term and moving a chunk of the 403b into FSAGX (which unfortunately means taking the end of day price)...it's just got the feel of an inflection point..i think we look back in a few weeks and remember july 6..

MikeNYC, nice Godfather reference. Although not a crime lord, I am with you that Bill demands a certain amount of respect. When I met Bill at PDAC, I was kind of at a loss for words, a handshake and a hello was really quite enough.

"And if and when the equity market falls, and these high cash-flow backed securities are thrown out as babies with the bathwater, we rescue the baby."

So the summer rally is yet to come, followed by a smashing of the markets, which equals bargains galore in the right PM's? Does this indicate that you are a buyer the entire way down, when it happens, or will you let it be known to the community when we are close to a floor?

Enjoy the clear blue ocean water, Bill!

Jock,
Wouldn't 12.47 (previous resistance) be support now for SLW?

S, my current miner/gold holdings are: CEF, SLV, SLW, AAUK, UXG, TRE, GFI plus physical.

With respect to timing, gold generally starts bottoming in the July time period and strengthens going into fall, so most pain should be behind us.

As for GFI, over the last two years this has been one of the most frustrating gold stocks to trade, for me. If you like it, I would say buy it and forget about it until this gold bull has run its course or your price objective has been met.

One last point for all of the short term traders out there, selling a stock and have it rally is going to happen all the time to us. It’s just part of the drill. The only thing you can do is if you think something has changed is re-buy the position and act accordingly. IMO, its best if one can devoid oneself of emotion regardless of the movement of one’s portfolio.

San Gold Corporation. symbol SGR on the Toronto Venture Exchange is a small Canadian gold mining company that has now gone into production (50,000 ozs. this year). Located near the town of Bisset in south eastern Manitoba. It is not a penny per se as it is currently trading around $1.25 up from around $1.00 one week ago.

http://tinyurl.com/39zg4o

Disclosure: Long WGI and SGR

2nd,
No, I just took the best dip I could get on a rocket ship chart. It leveled off and dipped a hair and I got into 300 shares. If it goes down I'll buy more. From the strength of my miners I'm comfortable.

I have no regrets on any of my miner buys so far, even KRY which is in hold mode.
WGDF makes up for it. I'm surprised we got above 2.70 so easily. There was a lot of volume though...

Goldman Is Working With Law-Enforcement Officials After Threats
By Christine Harper

July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, said it's working with law-enforcement authorities after letters making threats against the company were sent to U.S. newspapers.

The letters, all mailed from Queens, New York, were received by papers in states including Texas, Indiana, Tennessee and Idaho, the Star-Ledger reported today. The letters said: ``Goldman Sachs. Hundreds will die. We are inside. You cannot stop us,'' according to the New Jersey newspaper, which also received a letter.

``We take any threat to the safety of our people very seriously,'' Goldman spokesman Michael DuVally said in an e- mailed statement. ``We are working closely with the law- enforcement authorities, who tell us they don't believe the threat to be very credible.''

Supervisory special agent Neil Donovan of the FBI's New York press office didn't immediately return a call for comment. Tom Boyle, the U.S. Postal Service's assistant inspector in charge, also didn't immediately respond to a call.

``We have a broad range of security measures in place to counter all likely threats and we're monitoring the situation closely,'' Goldman's DuVally said.

Sorry Bill.
Boy, it didn't take them long....
Suits too? Hmmm. Nice guys.

No worries, have a good flight, don't forget the sunscreen, and enjoy some island time.

I'll be there to see you before long.

UNG-adding here...

Hello Bill........ Thanks for generously sharing your Market Wizardry. Bon Voyage.

Can one of your team make an observation on WFMI. Technically it’s in the accumulation zone with the RSI daily over 30 and weekly and monthly under 30. You have not commented on its position at all. Do you see a negative bias in its action today?

Bill... you can talk to your techie about setting up a password protected Torrent system for sharing of any files you wish to disseminate. This will reduce your bandwidth requirements substantially (since you have a loyal reader base, and each downloader is contributing to the bandwidth required for everyone else to download).

The azure blue beckons Bill with her siren calls and tales of brave Ulysses.

Fazeli:

Just like RGLD, you will be able to sell and re-enter SLW every cycle if you desire, especially the royalty guys. I like RGLD a tad better and it even pays a dividend on a regular basis.

Craig -

you could say 12.47 is support for SLW, or you could say 12.40 where it closed that day. But I'm not traders treat charts with such precision or reverence. For me the overriding story is that, finally SLW has broken 12 and held. The two year ascending triangle it broke out of might mean something - and then again it might NOT ... For me, a pattern persists until it DOESN'T ... no certainties, just "fuzzy math" as bush would say ...

One third of Bill's global 100 are up over 20% and average around 30% YTD! The only one outside of gold stocks I'm holding is MBT...and, of course wish that I was holding others in the top group. STO was a fine candidate under consideration last week and is just one among many with, then, nice entries but I'm going to be patient and feel good about gains so far. Main point is that I think Bill's 100 deserves as much chatter as gold.

WFMI: I still am going on the assertion that the credit crunch is just beginning, and when it finally runs its course, the US consumer will be strangled. That doesn't bode well for pricey joints like WFMI. I think we'll see cheaper, the multiple is still rather high.

Also, don't underestimate the power of anti American sentiment abroad in damaging a retail chain's ability to expand internationally. All of my relatives are in Greece and Italy, and they avoid McDonalds and Starbucks like the plague.

On the positive side for WFMI, the recent food taint scares coming out of China will have lots of people running back to Whole Foods. Plus, we will have a new president soon, hopefully one that can repair our mortgaged international reputation.

jasper, you're absolutely right...i don't think gold is the only thing breaking out today... differences i've noticed with real breakouts: a) you don't really believe them until after the fact, but they appear obvious in the rear view mirror, b) it feels too "expensive" at the beginning to jump in, but in retrospect it was the ideal time, and c) if you miss the first train out, it gets harder and harder to buy a ticket...

bill's been talking about xau 143/144...here it is...is it a fake-out or do you make a move..

Well you know what I'm doing....and look out when it gets past 148.50....

And there I was, as 2nd says, "should I buy here or...?" "If I buy, how big an initial position should I buy?"

I told my usual self to shut up. That bastard loses money!

..i think the reason it gets harder to take the later trains is you keep thinking there will be a better one...when you finally realize you will be left behind, everyone else who has been waiting thinks the same thing, and that's when the earlier passengers disembark and sell you the tickets for the downhill ride...

it would make more sense to zoom out a little and realize that gold and the miners have taken some big hits since february, and xau at 144 is a road sign to better things..

jasper, I can't wait until we can chatter about the Micro100. That's going to be great, and I think, hope, know, there will be some good, if risky, opportunities there. And LOTS to talk about.

Speaking of the Cara100, my work buddy to whom I mentioned RIO at 33 is very happy. I really love this stock and this company.

I think gold is just seductive, so it grabs our attention. I mentioned earlier I had a little success in other futures, but kept coming back to gold futures, where I summarily had my butt kicked. And still kept coming back for more. Part is the mystique, the allure of the metal. But in a more practical vein, I think we all just expect it to explode at some point and it's important to stay in the game for that fine day. So now I'm staying with a little bit of metal and buy/hold shares.

Bill, I assume that publicly available research reports are fair game to be linked to here? If it's freely downloadable, it should be freely linkable, no? The other stuff we should be cool with. In fact, I wish there were some way to 'mark' the reports with a hidden code as they are sent out, so we would know who, if anyone, betrays the trust.

And then that person can "sleep with the fishes."

Regards, all,

Mike
NYC

Exactly.

But then you have to add the positives.
Miners strong.
Technical analysis
Bill saying day after day to watch 144 on the XAU.
SLW going wild.
WGDF killing.
GFI strong today, GRS getting right, UXG doing well.

The MO is up for now.

Fidelity Users: Anybody having problems in the direct trading window with level 2 quotes loading very slowly? This has been going on for a couple of months now, but seems to be getting progressively worse.

Anybody else encountering this type of problem?

TIA

For those of you who use planetary guidence to compliment Bill’s advise and suggestions, please be advised Retrograde Mercury is slowing to stop at our station and goes Direct this coming Monday night. ALLLL….. ABOARD!!!!

C.Note -

Curious that RGLD has been so weak - wish I'd bought it a couple of days ago, when it bounced off support. If they dip, I'll follow you lead. RGLD were just following Franco-Nevada's royalty model. Did you read Bill's material on SLW? Their model is even better, because they can go to gold miners, and base metal miners, and buy their silver. Investors won't let gold miners sell forward their gold, but won't NOTICE if they sell forward a bit of ancillary silver - to lower their cost of gold ...

mike, i think it was an analyst on TSC who used elephant tracks as an analogy...the high volume and persistence that charecterizes institutional buying are unmistakable when you look at a chart...there's going to be time to participate, so i agree with you there's no need to jump in with both feet...simply saying that today feels like a foot print...and the pervasive skepticism feels "right" to me...

jasper-you've mentioned several times your regret at not having gotten more aggressive...i'm certainly not going to put myself in your shoes, but i would point out that you have also expressed interest in having bill manage your account...so assuming bill has been sharing what he would be doing at this point, then i would have to say you "bet the jockey..."

i'm not about to speak for bill, just copying his comments here:

"The recent technical break-down in the Goldminers turned out to be a Bear Trap. The market has been deliberate in its move to shake out the weak hands.

I continue to believe that once the 143-144 level for $XAU is taken out, the goldminer prices will rally hard over the Summer."

Each of us is responsible for deciding whether 143/144 has in fact been "taken out." I'm making an early bet.

That would be 2nd. He's got the karma trade working.

I'm the voodoo and chart type. Oh, and green underwear and shirts. No, I'm not joking.
Not red. Until this thing goes bear and then it's RED.

Don't be silly, no one believes in astrology, that would be like superstition! LOL!

We're closing into strength for the PMs here... GFI, GG, KGC, NEM, AU, PAAS, SSRI... they're all near their intraday highs... SLW has held near its high all day...

The question is what will happen on Monday. We'll see if my selling SLW @ 13.25 was a wise move. XAU is going to close above 145 (likely) or at least near it.

By the way, is anyone out there playing Alamos (AGI)? I had a very small stake in the low 8's which got decimated, and so I closed it out at peak price today.

With such woeful performance, does this stock have the legs to run with the rest of the miners if we have a rampaging bull? or is going to be a CDE or NXG?

Through today I would say I've been aggressive:
commodities,natural resources, basic materials: 45%
emerging: 15%
industrials/aero defense: 12%
biotech: 7%
tech: 10%
consumer staples: 4%
infrastructure: 4%
Cash:3%

2nd...when the going is good, never aggressive enough; when not so good, never defensive enough. an unpleasant mindset to have or live with I might add...the past two days sure have been sweet for me...just hoping that the support is in for xau. I've rebuilt my account 3-4x this year, probably needlessly. Gold stocks have been the only constant.

re whether or not 144 has been taken out, I think it takes another consecutive day. I like to use rsi and cci on weekly data where it dips into oversold, breaks downtrend line of the indicator, and then crosses midpoint. As for a different view, I'll share a quote made earlier today by a human ta guru:
That XAU pattern is getting headwinds due to major support on the Dollar being just below current levels. This is one pattern I do not have much faith in as when you get a strong spike up initially and then a tight coil sets up well below that spike seen back in April the pattern tends to become more erratic and especially in light of the proximity I believe to support on the Dollar.

when the gold breakout finally ends, it will be nem/gg/kgc/slw/gfi 50/40/18/30...does it really matter if you don't time it exactly right...

when the gold breakout finally ends, it will be nem/gg/kgc/slw/gfi 50/40/20/18/30...does it really matter if you don't time it exactly right...

Have a great weekend all.

Bill, be safe and enjoy your break.

We'll meet on the YBR when you're ready.

jasper, the USD, of course, isn't the only driver...i don't mind headwinds, it adds to the skepticism, and every sector that has broken out (SMH, OIH) has had them...you will undoubtedly have more than oppty to reload/add...

http://tinyurl.com/2nhcrp

BNN TV - Carter Braxton Worth, Analyst & Chief Market Technician at Oppenheimer, thinks Crystallex is going "aggressively higher."

51:50 time stamp.

Over in Massachusetts for the weekend along the Cape. Just checked in and like what I see in the miners SLW, WGDF, EGO, AUY, (Long all) as well as STO and TRA (long both). Wow, sorry I missed the day, but like the results. RSIs getting frothy on some and will have to watch more closely next week or set some trailing stops.

Thanks Bill for all your insights. And good luck with the move and set-up!

Think I'll have a cold one! Have a great weekend everyone.

2nd_Ave.....

I'm just logging in here for the first time today. I saw your UNG post and checked my trade today. You must be my psychic twin. I added UNG. My trade executed at ....nee, nee, nee, nee (Twilight Zone Music)....1:41:35 p.m.

leisa, yes, well, any [market] post containing "psychic" or "Twilight Zone" resonates with me right now LOL

Bill's comment about physical gold stirs my anxiety. Half of me says, yeah but these miner shares make me feel good enough and holding actual gold is just too removed from anything i have ever done.

Then the fellow on the other shoulder says, get some information...at least know the most efficient way to acquire gold. So..... I know that this has been posted in the past....suggestions about acquisition welcome. Sure would be nice if Fidelity had a function for this, as easy as ordering a book from amazon.

I have another post (from a fellow investor I think of as less emotional than our collective selves here..) to share about xau's prospect:

For what it's worth, commercial shorts in the gold market have dropped to levels that have signalled bottoms in the past. Also, the monthly chart on GDX (and I would assume XAU) have just given a buy signal. A buy signal occurs about once a year. It may be time for an impulsive move up in gold.

jasper,
www.apmex.com has a great rep for purchasing physical gold. They publish or will provide their buy info as well, and have low buy/sell spreads. They also have low minimum orders, 50 bucks, mail quickly and their customer service is excellent.

Kruggerands are among the lowest premium (most gold for the buck) forms of bullion and are readily recognizable when you want/need to sell.

I've got a sock drawer full of silver (don't tell anyone, OK?) and I wonder if the money wouldn't have been better put into shares, but I enjoy knowing I can put my hands on the metal when I want to. I pretty much stick to Australian 1 oz Lunars for 'fancy bullion' because I like them so much, and Sunshine Minting 1 oz bars for the plain stuff. And a few other silvery oddball items such as have caught my eye. Like my Australian Kilo-bunny.

My phsyical gold level is low, but it's mostly because I can afford to accumulate silver and most gold items are beyond my price level.

Hope that helps.

Mike
NYC

jasper, MikeNYC:

Along with junk US silver coins, one ounce Silver Eagles are also a good PM to physically hold.

Last week, when silver dipped, I bought SE’s from my local coin dealer for $12.30 each. They are minted by the US Government.

Krugerrands continue to have a stigma from the past and will be discounted when you try to sell them.

If you live in the US it’s best to stick with identifiable domestic PM, especially if we reach times of stress.

C.Note: what is the "stigma" associated with Kruggerands?

I think the stigma being referred to is South Africa's history of racist policy. I think the discount is because the K'rand isn't pure gold, I think it's one of those 90 percent deals, or close to.

ALOHA !!

Lots of "green" today ... On Thursday I bought more Continuum-CNU and Geologix-GIX. I am also buying into the PMI GOLD-PMV.V private placement.

Krugs are rated around 91% pure. I prefer Maple Leafs and British Sovereigns. If British Sovereigns are good enough for the US Air Force combat jet pilots TOP GUN then they're good enough for me!

This whole mindset of not wanting to own "real money" is just what the FED wants. You owe it to yourself and your family's future to possess the "real deal"! So you don't mind dragging around a 56 inch flat screen TV but a roll of gold coins is out of the question! Where's the logic? If you've never held a one ounce shiny .9999 fine gold Maple Leaf coin in your hand then your missing out! Its all that's left after 6000 years of mankind that still has any value! The Roman Empire and its Ceasars are gone but its gold coins are not ...

Not much time during market hours lately ... Too many projects, but not nearly the prestigious projects Bill has going on!

Bon Voyage Bill ... All the best on your move! Perhaps the Bahamian government will allow me into the country long enough to visit you at your palacial office complex ... Do I need to bring a bribe? Maybe some chocolate covered macadamia nuts ... HA!

k-rands are the most recognized gold coin, worldwide. They are 92% pure, but they are one ounce of gold, same as an Eagle. The extra metal is copper, which makes them harder and less resistant to scratching. There is no south africa discount. They aren't as pretty as a 99.999 Maple. But I am talking most gold for the buck.

They almost always have the lowest premium over spot and the lowest buy sell spread.

(apmex pricing)
Maples - 13.96 over spot for 20 $15 spread
Eagles - 21.95 over spot for 20 $15 spread
Buffalos - 33 over spot
Krands - 5.95 over spot for 10 $12.95 spread

I've never, ever heard of any gold dealer or purchaser, or seller, having a 'stigma' discount because of a regime that has long since passed. And I've paid a lot of attention.

They aren't as pretty, mainly due to the copper and the ugly old guy. But for the cheapest, most recognized gold coin in the world, and the chapest way to own one ounce of gold, it's krands, pure and simple.

But get a couple of pretty maples, or lunars to ohh and ahh over. I do agree there are prettier bullion coins.

Mike
NYC

Jock:

Sorry for being so tardy in my reply i.e. RGLD/SLW.

Yes I have read the info Bill has placed on the blog about SLW however, I find there are more opportunities to buy and sell for ‘Buffett Standard’ profits with RGLD as opposed to the long wait with SLW and not even a dividend forthcoming for the hassle and the use of your $.

Another thing I’ve noted is when the Fed’s and HB&B do their smack down on PM’s; GG and SLW seem to take a bigger hit then most.

RGLD’s Net Smelter Return Royalty approach works well with just a few personnel to rake in the profits. That may not be called ‘buying forward’ but what it does mean: whatever the mine produces at the smelter or end result, RGLD get a percentage of it.

Finally, for the most part, all this PM is coming from properties located in the USA and primarily Nevada, gives me an additional feeling of security.

Good morning everyone,

Here's a question for our resident mining expert, Jock:

Would you offer an opinion on totally-crushed Apex Silver Mines? (SIL)? Its 1Y analyst target is 11+, now it sits at 2, it's been up to 20; Looks like a bargain here... or not? I could find no readily apparent reason or news related to the crushing. Any idea of what's the catch?