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June 19, 2007
Western Goldfields (WGI), rising star, Tues., June 19, 2007, 10:45 AM
The annual general meeting of Western Goldfields (TSX:WGI and OTCBB: WGDF) is underway as I write. Most of these slides were pulled from the AGM presentation. I think the story is compelling, particularly the slide below called “Enterprise Value per Reserve Oz: Valuation Comparables”.
Pretty soon, the stock will be AMEX listed, and also on the radar screens of all the major Wall St and Bay St broker-dealer analysts. If they choose to get on board early, you will see mostly BUY ratings.
You can beat the rush. But then, you knew I have believed that all along.
This week, with the first load taken from the Western Mesquite Mine in Southern California the pre-production has begun, and the AGM being held this morning at the TSX Auditorium is the kick-off to heavy promotion.
Here are the slides. I am sure the Company will have them up on their website soon.
First, however, here are the stock price and volume Daily and Weekly data charts.
















No position.
Subsequent TSX:WGI chart taken within minutes of the previous upload of the blog entry.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 19, 2007 10:45:33 AM | Category: Gold
Discourse
I rarely buy stocks on the recommendations of others unless I conduct my own due diligence. Due to the great profiling here of KRY and WGDF, I had something on my radar screen to consider. I took a position in KRY and I closed it with a 30% gain. There were things about the company that for my investment strategy I did not feel comfortable with. I was fine foregoing further gain. It was not a large position, but a large position in a small account! I then bought some WGDF. I have a 17% gain so far. Again, small position but a large position in a small account--so returns are good on that pocket of money.
I've appreciated the profiling of this sector, for it is not one that I have much experience with. It's nice to have a few names to DD, and make decisions that make sense for my time horizon and risk profile.
Thank you Bill and others for highlighting these names.
Bill,
This is to complement my comment from last week.
The CPI tracks Non-durable Goods consumption
very closely, as yo can see in the chart.
Consumption behavior is changing. For the first time in decades,despite a strong rise in Wages since the 2001 recession, the Duable Goods consumption is declining relative to Personal Consumption.
Posted by: Will Rahal
at
June 19, 2007 12:17 PM [link]
Thanks for the info Bill. It looks like this stock could really hit one out of the park. I also think that it looks like gold will close above $670 by early next week as the $650 support held.
Posted by: darvas
at
June 19, 2007 4:56 PM [link]
Congrats to 2nd Ave on BMD
Contract was a winner.
June 15 COT gold report shows commercials net short
position dropped 28% ! Looks like we have some
upside in the old shiny coming.
Bill try some cayenne powder on your sinus.
Kaimu must be rockin with those earthquakes nearby.
Hope all is OK in paradies!
Posted by: Stokbot
at
June 19, 2007 6:04 PM [link]
Jim Jubak has as very interesting column on the rotting bond market. As I read it I immediately thought of this blog and how the finacial health or lack of it is becoming more widely apparent.
What really bothers me is that many large institutions really don't understand their situation.
Posted by: stocon
at
June 19, 2007 6:05 PM [link]
Hello Bill and Others,
What multiple could one use to estimate a mid tier gold stock price using cash flow per share and what multiple for earnings per share in a gold bull market?
Just having fun guesstimating WGDF numbers.
Tom
Posted by: golden7
at
June 19, 2007 9:46 PM [link]
golden7, that's a great question. I think multiples change over time. Tomorrow I look at this in more detail.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
June 19, 2007 9:58 PM [link]
Company website displays the following analysts as having initiated coverage on Western Goldfields:
Barry Allan
Research Capital
barry.allan@researchcapital.com
Gary Baschuk
Clarus Securities Inc.
gbaschuk@clarussecurities.com
Catherine Gignac
Wellington West Capital Markets Inc.
cgignac@wwcm.com
Trevor Turnbull
Scotia Capital Inc.
trevor_turnbull@scotiacapital.com
12-month targets supplied back in January by Research Capital and Clarus:
Western Goldfields Rated New `Buy' at Research Capital :WGI CN
January 11, 2007 15:13 EST -- Western Goldfields Inc. (WGI CN) was rated new ``buy'' in new coverage by analyst Barry D Allan at Research Capital Corp.. The price target is C$3.85 per share.
Western Goldfields Rated New `Buy' at Clarus Securities :WGI CN
January 11, 2007 11:03 EST -- Western Goldfields Inc. (WGI CN) was rated new ``buy'' in new coverage by analyst Gary Baschuk at Clarus Securities. The 12-month price target is C$3.40 per share.
Research Capital and Wellington West have an underwriting relationship with WFI/WGDF...I have no information on whether Clarus Securities or Scotia Capital have any relationship with the company beyond analyst coverage...given the target prices were arrived at prior to term loan and announcement of early production, might expect the targets to be revised upward...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 19, 2007 10:49 PM [link]
..make that WGI/WGDF..
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 19, 2007 10:52 PM [link]
thanks, stokbot
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 19, 2007 10:55 PM [link]
Scotia's target for WGI.TO is $3.15 with the risk rating of caution warranted ( highest possible risk)
Posted by: Pierre
at
June 20, 2007 8:33 AM [link]
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I also like their hedging strategy. It provided necessary financing while not giving away the store.
If the stock trades above $2 for next month in the U.S., it will move to the AMEX. Management expects this will increase exposure and liquidity for the stock.
I added to my holdings today. I have more in reserve if the stock pulls back.
Posted by: number2son
at
June 19, 2007 11:21 AM [link]