Can you hear the sound of one hand clapping?

This week, the equity markets of North America and Europe suffered major losses. That is not to say these losses cannot be recouped and then some, in the weeks ahead. But serious people must ask themselves, is it worth taking the risk to be long a shaky market?

Are you happy with the economic returns or are you counting on price speculation (driven by taking on more debt) to get you off the hook from earlier loans? That is the question.

Are we not pretty much at a similar point today in equity markets where in the summer of 2005 I opined the residential real estate market was? By that I mean in mid-year 2005, investors in residential houses were accepting of 2 pct cash-on-cash returns. I said at the time, that was not an acceptable return.

Real estate investors disregarded cash and bond markets that would have paid higher financial returns because they had been led to believe that housing prices (not house value) would lift. So they were accepting a net +2 pct cash return on rent as well as seeking say a +10 pct annual price increase (out of thin air) for a +12 pct total return.

But then they hit the reality wall, after these real estate investors realized their tenants could not pay more, and their fellow investors had been bidding up real estate prices by securing Liar Loans, and that financial institutions had been syndicating those loans they knew were Liar loans (ie, selling them) to clients who they figured were too stupid to know better the asset quality they were buying.

What a musical chairs game. All driven by greed. And presently the music has stopped. Can you hear the silence?

Are you reading about the number of failed financial institutions that HB&B had to step into the market to buy in order to inspire a degree of confidence? That clean-up process will go on until some of those HB&B units cease to believe they can hold the line on trader confidence.

We are starting to see evidence that the line in the sand may have been set this week. Merrill Lynch (MER) pulled the plug on $800 million of Bear Stearns hedge funds, and proceeded to sell off these so-called asset-backed securities. In response, I am guessing Bear Stearns has been selling off its holdings of MER, which just happened to nose-dive this week (-6.4 pct).

And Morgan Stanley (MS) just reported a truly humungous quarter, but still got stung, dropping -4.4 pct W/W. Yes, can you hear the sound of one hand clapping? The silence is deafening.

The thing is that nobody knows how bad the syndicated asset-backed securities market is. Bankers and traders have been relying too much on credit market derivatives (swaps), but these can fail, and as they unwind, there could be major Funds and major Banks fail. Nobody (and I mean nobody) today can predict how bad the fall-out of some of these failures could be, or the impact that would have on market confidence.

I really have to laugh at bloggers, analysts and Talking Heads who say they know more than the next person.

Nobody knows. Not even Bo Bernanke.

Other than pointing you to a book by veteran Wall St institutional salesman Michael Panzner (“Financial Armageddon”), which makes no numerical forecasts of any kind, which, btw Michael, is the intelligent approach, we just have to figure it out on our own that bad things are likely to happen to good people in the next year or two. For that, you can blame just about anybody as long as the names Bush, Cheney, Rice, Bernanke, Paulson, Humungous Bank & Broker and Humungous Private Equity Corp are on the list.

And before Bush, Cheney, Rice, Bernanke, Paulson et al, there were others to blame.

The US financial system is out of control because money is being printed at an alarming rate to finance a series of military actions, homeland security actions, hurricane recovery actions, political pork, dubious tax policies, and an unbending effort by the politically powerful to help Friends & Family associates get theirs, while the getting is good. Unfortunately, this money is being created out of debt, which is not being repaid via the only sound way, which is through growth in real economic wealth.

Today, regrettably, the debt is being rolled up into more debt, and then into more debt. The great facilitator – the biggest con game I have seen in 40 years – is the Return of Capital game (ie, the debt-facilitated share buy-backs and increased dividends that exceed free cash flow of these corporations). This is not about return on capital, but of capital, and the majority of you are being fooled.

I have been trying to draw you a picture the past couple weeks; it is like rolling a snowball – increasing in mass all the time – up a mountain. At some point, perhaps soon, perhaps in the Fall, or maybe even next year, when the music starts up again, those traders (mostly Humungous Private Equity Corp) who are in debt up to their eyeballs, and have conned others into joining them, will say enough is enough.

And then, poof! Asset prices will drop, but unfortunately those bankers will come knocking on the door demanding payment. And many accounts will not be able to pay, and like Merrill Lynch did this week to Bear Stearns, those assets will be auctioned off – at fire sale prices. And asset prices will sink even lower, causing even more auctions. And as financial institutions start to fail, the credit ring fails, and those credit swaps don’t hold up.

All I can see is that Messrs Bernanke and Paulson are in a pickle here, and there will be a massive amount of money being printed to stave off a financial system crisis. Ergo my continuing belief in gold.

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: Despite a soft Shanghai market (-1.0 pct W/W), clearly there was capital flowing into Japan (+1.21 pct), India (+2.15 pct) and Hong Kong markets this week. Hong Kong and India in particular look strong, probably due to the massive IPO’s happening there. Meanwhile capital was being sucked out of North America and Europe – this week at least.

U.S. Equities : The broad US market indexes turned weak, down from -1.44 pct to -2.05 pct across the major indexes. The weak Utilities (-4.1 pct, which is a tip-off that income-oriented capital was switching to bonds), Financials (-2.7 pct) and Healthcare (-2.8 pct) led the rout this week. On Friday, traders were aggressively selling those stocks as well as Semiconductors (down -1.5 pct on the day).

Dow 30 : The DJIA moved from 13639 back to 13360, which is a little lower than the close of 13424 two weeks ago. The market is nervous: there were 25 Dow components down, just like two weeks ago. One week ago, there were 22 up, which was almost as good as the 25 up of three weeks ago. So, June has been a see-saw month, which helps the day traders, and makes an emotional wreck for the rest.

U.S. Sector ETFs: Last weekend I wrote, “A week ago ten of 10 US sector ETF’s were down. This week only Cons. Staples (XLP) dropped, but only by two cents (-0.07 pct). It was almost like two weeks ago when 10 of 10 gained. Quite a see-saw, but rotation has clearly been favoring the Energy, Materials and Industrials segment.” This week everything but Semiconductors (+0.10 pct, which is almost flat) was down, and the Semi’s got hammered (-1.5 pct) Friday. The ones holding the market from crashing are still Energy, Materials and Industrials. However, this week saw leading industrial company Honeywell (HON -5.4 pct) take a huge hit.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #6 (-1.4 pct); Higher $WTIC didn’t help XOM/CVX
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #2 (-0.2 pct); Lots of profit-taking
20: Industrials (XLI): #3 (-1.1 pct); Boeing BA may have peaked
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #4 (-1.1 pct); CCL & EBAY >+2 pct; SBUX story all neg
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #7 (-1.8 pct); ABV (-7.7 pct) profit taking
35: Healthcare (IYH): #9 (-2.8 pct); AMGN profit taking & Pfizer in disarray
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #8 (-2.7 pct); Losers led by Merrill Lynch (MER -6.4 pct)
45: Tech (SMH chips): #1 (+0.1 pct); 3 week rally stopped on Fri
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #5 (-1.2 pct); T (-3.6 pct)& VZ (-3.2 pct); ouch!
55: Utilities (XLU): #10 (-4.1 pct); “Recovery rally or dead cat bounce?” Do you recall?

Bonds: Traders moved some money out of cash and short-term bonds and went into the short end of the US bond market this week. The slope of the yield curve lessened. I think it was an unremarkable week for bonds, however.

Commodities: A week ago, $CRB was strong. This week, not so – despite a firm oil price. $CRB dropped -4.55 (-1.4 pct W/W). Markets are nervous, undecided about oil, which has a huge inventory on hand, but also high prices. A refinery issue perhaps? (LOL) Yes! Should oil ($WTIC) drop into low 60’s, the US and European equity markets will zip once again.

Oil & Gas: This week, $WTIC lifted a further +0.60/bbl (after jumping +3.78/bbl the week before. I am still “wondering if a new inflation reality will lift it to a 65-75 range, which would be consistent with the $USD that I believe is ready to fall”. That is not to say there won’t be a new test of the 65 level (and probably lower) before moving higher at the first sign of storms brewing off the US east coast in Sept.

Gold: After a week in which $GOLD gained +4.83/oz (to 655.13) and $XAU (140.77) was up +4.0 pct, this week, $GOLD lifted again (+1.83/oz) to 657.00, while $XAU dropped -1.60 (-1.1 pct) to 139.17. Lots of talk, but little action.

Goldminers: The $XAU dipped as traders took profits. But the miners were down a fraction of what happened in the broad market. For example Financials (XLF) dropped -2.70 pct W/W while the $XAU was down just -1.14 pct.

Forex: Last weekend I wrote, “The $USD did even less this week, but, once again, it did strengthen. …I think that next week, we’ll see the $USD start to weaken and the Canadian Loonie join the Euro higher. I’m not so sure about the Pound.” Well after eight weeks of a strengthening $USD, it finally dropped (-0.61 pct), and the Euro (+0.61 pct) and Pound (+1.17 pct) were very strong. The Cdn Dollar did fall a bit (-0.17 pct W/W), but had a huge lift (+0.56 pct) on Friday.

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International Economics Review

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week

Econoday report on the US Housing Starts for May

Mon. June 25: report to come on US Existing Home Sales for May

Wed. June 27 report to come on US Durable Goods Orders for May

Thurs. June 28 report to come on Final 1Q07 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Fri. June 29 report to come on US Personal Income & Outlays for May

Yes, next week has more important econ news coming from the US than last week’s calendar. The spin has already begun. Check out DJ MarketWatch.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), or Dow 30 index as it is popularly called, closed the week at 13360.3 (-2.05 pct), which was worse than the drubbing that the NASDAQ Composite took (-1.44 pct W/W).

There is a lot of technical support in the 12750-12800 area (May-June-07 trading). There is even more support down at about the 12050 level of March-07.

If you have been watching the Momentum indicators (RSI and MACD on these pages), you will have noted they have given an Intermediate and Short-term time horizon Sell Alert, as the Daily and then the Weekly RSI-7 dropped below 70. Traders who use that time frame have taken some profits, particularly in the interest rate sensitive area (Utilities, REITs, Financials) and moved into T-Bills and short-term bonds, which offer competitive returns but much less risk.

In the bigger picture, I feel that long-term oriented traders have to recognize that any DJIA trading in the 11’s (below 12000) would be significant. A primary Bear market, on a fundamental basis, using today’s US interest rate, commodity price and econ datapoints, would have to take the DJIA down to below 10,000, possibly down below 9000.

The pendulum is swinging. A natural reversion to the mean would add to the negativism that is building today.

This is not a happy story except that none of us knows when the final chapter begins or if it has even been written yet. That’s why markets are fascinating.

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

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Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.

Ten of the ten sector ETF’s I follow here were DOWN this week.

Table 1 is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SMH	38.28	-0.57	-1.47%	0.10%	4.25%	6.13%	14.03%	11.44%	14.99%	16.49%
XLB	41.03	0.02	0.05%	-0.17%	1.56%	3.17%	18.55%	7.80%	18.96%	33.74%
XLI	39.00	-0.38	-0.96%	-1.07%	0.91%	1.91%	10.70%	7.88%	11.40%	17.65%
XLY	39.38	-0.27	-0.68%	-1.13%	0.05%	-0.38%	2.23%	1.99%	3.01%	19.66%
IYZ	33.70	-0.28	-0.82%	-1.23%	-1.20%	0.21%	13.62%	7.56%	15.89%	35.67%
XLE	69.96	-0.44	-0.63%	-1.44%	3.00%	4.81%	23.65%	16.76%	19.41%	33.97%
XLP	26.99	-0.21	-0.77%	-1.82%	-1.89%	-1.32%	2.70%	0.97%	3.53%	12.88%
XLF	36.44	-0.56	-1.51%	-2.70%	-2.04%	-2.88%	-1.30%	0.77%	-0.30%	14.48%
IYH	69.45	-0.97	-1.38%	-2.77%	-1.91%	-3.74%	4.50%	2.65%	4.85%	16.47%
XLU	38.80	-0.66	-1.67%	-4.06%	-1.22%	-5.55%	5.38%	-2.17%	6.10%	22.71%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

ExxonMobil (XOM) and ChevronTexaco (CVX), the two biggest US oil companies (and Cara 100 companies as well) were hammered on Friday. XOM dropped -4.0 pct and CVX was down -2.0 pct on the day.

Last weekend, I wrote, “It is not likely that XLE can continue to lift at a +4.5 pct W/W pace. But, if it should just stay even, then I believe that gold will be the next to lift.”

Meanwhile, $WTIC was up +0.71 (to 69.14/bbl), so profits were being taken.

XLE, with Friday’s drop, ended the week 6th best ETF performer of my ten. XLE (-1.44 pct) closed at 69.96.

Worse than that were the interest rate-sensitives (XLU, XLF) and defensive Consumers ( Staples XLP and Healthcare IYH). That is the front end of the train. When the train reaches Cassandra’s Crossing, if the bridge doesn’t hold up, these are the ones that go off the track first.

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Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CEO	113.69	-3.26	-2.79%	3.80%	8.32%	24.16%	20.60%	36.48%	29.18%	50.90%
STO	29.51	-0.34	-1.14%	1.48%	7.35%	6.65%	14.87%	11.48%	12.33%	15.05%
PBR	121.50	-1.69	-1.37%	0.03%	10.92%	14.60%	21.91%	28.48%	23.82%	52.24%
TOT	78.59	-0.76	-0.96%	-0.20%	5.57%	4.86%	10.74%	15.44%	11.54%	27.89%
ECA	65.50	-0.27	-0.41%	-0.30%	4.27%	8.95%	44.46%	32.24%	39.72%	33.78%
IMO	46.63	-0.13	-0.28%	-1.21%	0.32%	1.66%	30.76%	28.07%	30.65%	40.37%
SU	89.78	-0.71	-0.78%	-1.84%	2.65%	5.15%	21.47%	23.87%	15.24%	25.76%
CVX	81.55	-1.30	-1.57%	-1.95%	1.07%	1.98%	14.91%	11.82%	12.13%	39.02%
XOM	82.52	-1.78	-2.11%	-3.98%	-0.19%	0.29%	11.35%	10.97%	9.43%	42.35%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

China’s CNOOC (CEO) has enjoyed a wild ride: +3.8 pct this week after buying a huge resource in the Western Cdn oil sands – a no-brainer at these oil prices; +8.3 pct over 2 weeks and +24.2 pct over 4 weeks.

Successful traders buy the rumor, sell on the news.

XOM (-4.0 pct) and CVX (-2.0 pct) were hammered.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) lost -0.17 pct W/W to 41.03. Dropping seven cents in a week that saw the Dow plunge -279 points was relatively a joy.

Again on Friday, there was a tiny glimmer of strength – XLB was the only ETF in my list that stayed above water, though barely.

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BHP	59.47	-0.92	-1.52%	2.76%	6.62%	19.90%	53.00%	26.18%	53.39%	45.69%
MT	64.41	-1.90	-2.87%	0.22%	4.39%	12.17%	57.87%	23.58%	54.50%	104.80%
TS	48.23	-0.28	-0.58%	-0.97%	2.62%	4.24%	-0.60%	10.67%	-3.29%	36.36%
GGB	24.86	-0.66	-2.59%	-1.43%	6.70%	18.89%	51.40%	38.65%	56.75%	86.36%
RTP	303.43	-5.17	-1.68%	-1.61%	7.74%	8.96%	48.67%	35.46%	46.78%	48.10%
NUE	61.56	-0.70	-1.12%	-2.32%	-7.58%	-3.68%	12.95%	-4.85%	11.58%	23.79%
TCK	44.97	-0.20	-0.44%	-3.27%	4.97%	16.23%	-35.06%	-34.77%	-37.55%	0.00%
RIO	45.17	-0.84	-1.83%	-3.79%	1.69%	7.22%	56.73%	22.25%	54.59%	102.10%
AA	40.00	-0.34	-0.84%	-3.85%	0.86%	-0.52%	36.38%	18.73%	36.80%	33.38%
PKX	121.00	-3.75	-3.01%	-6.64%	-2.87%	7.27%	52.34%	19.68%	46.49%	101.16%

There was a lot of profit taking in this sector this week!

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Industrials (XLI) lost -1.07 pct this week to close at 39.00.

This group has been very strong this month, but this week, Honeywell (HON) suffered a loss of -5.4 pct.

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Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABB	22.39	-0.01	-0.04%	0.63%	5.41%	7.49%	25.65%	27.72%	28.31%	83.68%
GE	38.24	-0.56	-1.44%	0.31%	2.47%	2.30%	0.71%	6.79%	1.78%	15.04%
CAT	80.90	-0.57	-0.70%	-0.26%	3.03%	7.25%	32.28%	21.58%	33.52%	11.93%
UTX	71.38	-0.57	-0.79%	-0.87%	1.64%	4.57%	13.64%	8.02%	14.10%	15.33%
FDX	109.96	-0.96	-0.87%	-1.27%	0.51%	3.81%	0.17%	-0.61%	2.32%	-3.10%
MMM	86.43	-0.98	-1.12%	-1.41%	0.57%	-0.83%	10.44%	11.12%	10.31%	8.59%
BA	95.92	-1.28	-1.32%	-2.27%	-2.31%	-1.54%	7.57%	5.91%	8.07%	14.11%
ERJ	48.69	-1.58	-3.14%	-5.33%	2.44%	5.21%	19.40%	8.68%	20.22%	39.55%
HON	55.68	-0.70	-1.24%	-5.42%	-2.96%	-0.55%	23.46%	17.02%	24.76%	42.40%

If the economy is so hot, why is Fedex (FDX) down -3.1 pct over 52 weeks. I guess their customers are recoiling at the fuel surcharges.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) lost -1.13 pct W/W to close at 39.38.

Yes, there were a couple notable exceptions to the downdraft, like Brunswick Corp (BC -0.06 pct, which we’ll call flat on the week), and Carnival Cruise (CCL) and Ebay (EBAY), both up +2.0 pct on Friday, against the grain, but there were a lot of losers here.

The big story continues to be Starbucks (SBUX). Do you recall the Starbucks executives going from one TV network to another for months on end? Now they don’t want to talk. The beans have been spilled. A tough grind ahead, so says their bean counter.

Ahh, but that is always the best time to buy the stock, when it’s being thrown out with the dishwater, which in the case of Starbucks is not a pretty picture. Is this one going to turn out like Krispy Kreme? I hardly think so. As a lifestyle thing we had to get off that donut habit, but good (bordering on great) coffee and stores that serve as socially acceptable meeting places is not to be spurned for long. Starbucks will recover, and stay in the Cara 100, and the stock (SBUX) will trade much higher than present levels ($25.54, down -8.03 pct W/W) in the years ahead, I do believe.

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BC	33.78	-0.12	-0.35%	-0.06%	0.24%	-1.03%	5.83%	5.63%	6.93%	0.18%
DIS	34.14	-0.05	-0.15%	-0.76%	-0.18%	-4.74%	-0.18%	-3.37%	-0.06%	16.60%
CCL	49.32	0.99	2.05%	-0.78%	0.65%	-0.50%	-3.20%	3.09%	0.92%	20.44%
EBAY	31.76	0.63	2.02%	-0.87%	1.08%	-2.90%	5.27%	-1.85%	5.10%	5.83%
NKE	52.95	-0.63	-1.18%	-0.88%	-0.02%	-2.79%	8.44%	-2.49%	5.96%	26.25%
WHR	112.98	-1.79	-1.56%	-1.50%	1.94%	1.62%	33.45%	29.67%	38.27%	40.64%
TM	123.02	-1.97	-1.58%	-1.94%	-1.15%	2.24%	-9.08%	-7.36%	-6.74%	21.97%
JCP	72.97	-0.57	-0.78%	-3.58%	-6.81%	-7.48%	-6.52%	-10.41%	-8.29%	7.82%
SBUX	25.54	-0.72	-2.74%	-8.03%	-7.70%	-9.78%	-27.55%	-19.28%	-28.72%	-29.23%

Ahh, this week, Toyota Lexus was down and Gold and Platinum were up. The hedge works!

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was down -1.82 pct W/W to close at $26.99.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WAG	45.00	0.15	0.33%	1.67%	1.56%	0.92%	-2.32%	-5.00%	-3.60%	3.21%
KO	51.62	-0.47	-0.90%	0.08%	-0.10%	0.74%	6.26%	6.98%	6.70%	20.41%
BUD	52.45	-0.65	-1.22%	-0.83%	-0.29%	2.28%	6.56%	3.05%	7.26%	15.27%
DEO	84.04	-0.17	-0.20%	-2.02%	1.42%	-1.32%	5.67%	6.72%	7.26%	25.00%
PG	61.03	-0.85	-1.37%	-2.46%	-3.23%	-2.93%	-5.44%	-4.42%	-4.34%	9.27%
PEP	64.86	-1.02	-1.55%	-2.73%	-2.63%	-5.24%	3.41%	1.17%	2.79%	8.06%
WMT	47.83	-0.56	-1.16%	-3.06%	-4.49%	2.53%	0.59%	-0.37%	5.03%	-1.34%
WFMI	38.30	-0.05	-0.13%	-3.43%	-2.59%	-5.41%	-15.79%	-12.84%	-19.67%	-38.35%
MO	68.20	-0.38	-0.55%	-3.50%	-2.99%	-3.22%	5.05%	5.49%	7.18%	25.83%
ABV	68.99	-1.25	-1.78%	-7.69%	1.07%	6.19%	40.51%	28.95%	41.43%	78.73%

Two weeks ago I wrote, “Companhia de Bebidas Das Americas (AMBEV) (ABV) lost -3.4 pct this week, but is still up +5.1 pct over 2 weeks, +11.7 pct over 4 weeks, and +39.0 pct YTD. Party time in Brazil was interrupted this week. We’ll have to keep an eye on it.” Then a week ago, I added, “Well, ABV was the big story this week, rocketing up +9.5 pct. So, Party On! This stock is up +52.22 pct YTD and we’re still in the first half. Nothing else in this sector – on my Watchlist – is up over +10 pct YTD.”

Parties in Brazil can start and stop on a dime. Have you noticed? Must be the Latin blood.

This week, ABV plunged -7.7 pct. The Party stopped. Apparently.

Old worry-warts ought to stay away from this market. When the music stops, your arthritic fingers might miss that Sell button, and your heart might give out.

Just a warning, mind you. If you are going to get out on the Brazilian dance floor, you better be in good enough shape to do a couple flips.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Speaking of health, the IYH healthcare ETF was beaten up this week. IYH dropped -2.77 pct W/W to close at 69.45. Ouch.

IYH had been up for seven consecutive Fridays, and I was saying, “The drugmakers and healthcare providers must be happy seeing those legislators go home for the weekends.”

But this Friday was different, which just goes to prove that you can only flip a coin seven times in a row and call it before you fail.

This Friday IYH dropped -1.38 pct, and even at that there were three other of my ten ETF’s that couldn’t measure, comparatively speaking: SMH (-1.47 pct), XLF (-1.51 pct) and XLU (-1.67 pct) were Friday’s worst losers.

They all need new drugs, apparently.

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BMY	31.40	-0.62	-1.94%	2.08%	7.28%	4.56%	19.03%	12.99%	20.77%	22.51%
BMET	45.50	-0.02	-0.04%	-0.09%	0.02%	4.31%	9.72%	7.16%	11.06%	29.30%
NVS	55.45	0.29	0.53%	-0.91%	0.65%	-1.12%	-4.63%	-2.86%	-3.88%	6.04%
GSK	51.83	-0.42	-0.80%	-1.74%	0.50%	-1.45%	-3.68%	-6.58%	-1.07%	-4.72%
AET	49.11	-0.26	-0.53%	-2.23%	-6.01%	-4.83%	14.53%	7.63%	13.50%	22.01%
DNA	74.83	-1.14	-1.50%	-2.82%	-2.78%	-3.62%	-8.52%	-12.25%	-6.87%	-2.69%
UNH	51.30	-0.47	-0.91%	-3.02%	-4.42%	-5.37%	-2.42%	-7.88%	-4.02%	15.46%
JNJ	60.73	-1.38	-2.22%	-3.25%	-2.25%	-4.33%	-8.54%	-0.21%	-7.49%	-0.74%
PFE	25.38	-0.54	-2.08%	-4.12%	-4.30%	-6.96%	-3.46%	-1.59%	-2.27%	12.05%
AMGN	55.96	-1.31	-2.29%	-5.20%	-2.46%	2.55%	-18.19%	-7.46%	-18.56%	-13.87%

Merck (MRK -4.30 pct) and Pfizer (PFE -4.12 pct W/W) were the 2nd and the 3rd worst losers in the whole Dow 30 this week.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) lost -2.70 pct W/W to close at 36.44. Friday was a disaster -1.51 pct. Six sessions headed south now. People are talking, “How solid is my bank?”

One HB&B grabs $800 million from another HB&B. Hey, that’s not like when Eliot Spitzer would grab serious coin like that. These guys are not supposed to be saying, “I looked at the enemy, and it is us!”

Not even spectacular results at Morgan Stanley (MS) could keep the stock from crashing (-4.4 pct), including a loss on Friday of -3.08 pct. Do you think that maybe Bear Stearns was selling MS as well as MER in order to raise a few billion to plug the dike?

Tell me, how many fingers does a Bear have anyway? And, can you count on a claw to do the job on a leaky dike?

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Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HBC	92.28	-1.12	-1.20%	-0.30%	-0.27%	-0.26%	-0.74%	4.70%	1.52%	6.47%
GS	222.40	-4.50	-1.98%	-1.68%	-1.18%	-1.45%	10.80%	5.86%	12.27%	49.96%
DB	146.70	-3.02	-2.02%	-1.77%	2.12%	-4.85%	8.39%	10.10%	11.20%	37.39%
C	52.41	-1.25	-2.33%	-2.91%	-1.73%	-4.59%	-5.14%	1.10%	-3.92%	8.80%
UBS	60.65	-0.90	-1.46%	-2.91%	-1.48%	-4.05%	-1.21%	1.46%	2.62%	14.54%
CS	71.55	-1.98	-2.69%	-3.01%	-0.93%	-4.06%	2.05%	-3.25%	3.77%	0.00%
LEH	76.62	-2.62	-3.31%	-3.10%	3.28%	4.56%	-2.56%	4.72%	-0.31%	21.14%
JPM	48.72	-1.12	-2.25%	-3.64%	-3.35%	-5.56%	1.35%	0.52%	1.78%	18.63%
MS	84.60	-2.69	-3.08%	-4.39%	-2.87%	0.17%	3.65%	4.28%	6.15%	40.98%
MER	84.48	-2.82	-3.23%	-6.37%	-4.84%	-8.78%	-9.75%	-0.66%	-7.04%	24.44%

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Last weekend I wrote, “The Semiconductors (SMH) gained +2.89 pct a week ago Friday. This week, SMH gained +4.14 pct, including +2.11 pct on Friday. I see that Goldman Sachs has upped their confidence in Intel (INTC +11.0 pct), and Micron (MU) was given a Strong Buy rating at Raymond James… So the chips are moving away from the dip, which the equity rally sorely needs. (But), when this sector flames out, I suspect the obese woman will be singing the market anthem. After you hear a chorus of “We are the champions,” I trust you’ll head to the exit before the crowd. You’ll want to beat the traffic.”

This week, SMH was rolling up hill (+1.33 pct approx.), but then came Friday. And the echoes of “We are the champions; we are the champions… of them all” were all around us as the music stopped.

On Friday, SMH fell -1.47 pct. We’ll have to wait until this week to see if the chips can rise from the dip.

We were the champions… of them all! And we rocked you!

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Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ADSK	46.66	-0.51	-1.08%	3.69%	5.61%	4.29%	15.04%	19.79%	16.53%	33.58%
SAP	50.50	-0.55	-1.08%	3.42%	3.25%	7.24%	-5.08%	9.12%	-3.20%	-1.56%
SNDK	47.90	-0.64	-1.32%	3.23%	8.32%	14.05%	14.81%	10.11%	13.97%	-8.22%
QCOM	42.99	-0.57	-1.31%	0.84%	2.67%	-1.38%	14.76%	-0.83%	13.70%	3.89%
CSCO	26.92	-0.40	-1.46%	-1.72%	1.66%	5.98%	-2.96%	2.09%	-0.04%	36.72%
INTC	23.70	-0.59	-2.43%	-2.23%	8.57%	7.87%	16.46%	23.70%	18.03%	29.86%
ORCL	19.39	-0.29	-1.47%	-2.37%	1.73%	3.41%	10.74%	4.87%	13.33%	35.31%
CTSH	75.93	-0.57	-0.75%	-3.91%	0.61%	1.32%	-2.35%	-18.35%	-0.17%	17.16%
INFY	51.15	-0.64	-1.24%	-4.05%	2.88%	5.33%	-8.37%	-4.29%	-3.36%	42.76%
ADBE	40.84	-0.69	-1.66%	-4.47%	-5.11%	-2.74%	2.30%	-4.74%	0.22%	32.64%

SanDisk (SNK) is still the story in this area, up +3.2 pct this week, and a very solid four weeks of rock’m, sock’m.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) dropped -1.23 pct W/W.

The biggest of the Big Bells, T (-3.6 pct W/W and -0.69 pct on the previous Friday) and VZ (-3.2 pct W/W and -0.53 pct on the previous Friday) were kind of a drag on the big lie being told by Humungous Private Equity Corp in this space.

But as I have been saying for a couple weeks, “This Telco sector story is still all about M&A within a relatively few companies, many of which you and I would consider to be dogs, but which Humungous Private Equity Corp wants to control for a while.”

Dogs, my friends. It’s time to jump. Start looking for small, technologically innovative, zero-debt companies.

If you want to go tiny, tiny, my nephew David’s Voices.com was on CNN, and if you believe CNN is the most trusted news source in our world, then Voices.com has a great future.

And, despite that being an obvious plug for a private company – my nephew’s private equity – I am sure my brother is the happier for it.

Yes, I do believe in this sector, but just not in humungous debt and massive legacy systems.

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) had another big hit, dropping -4.06 pct W/W to close Friday at 38.80.

That is a tip-off that traders are seeking high returns elsewhere. I just don’t know where.

Maybe it’s true that risk is being priced into this market. Do you think maybe some of these utility companies are holding funny paper – the stuff we once ignorantly called Chinese Money?

Something is up because the share prices in this sector have been getting trashed for a while now, and the TXU cover story had been masking it until I saw what was going on and pointed it out to you.

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Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

The US Bond market stopped dropping at the short end, but otherwise the week was unremarkable.

The Lehman 20-year+ bond ETF (TLT) gained +0.04 pct W/W to 83.72 (three cents is better than nothing, especially if it’s copper).

But, yet again, the big story was Friday as bond prices popped (and yields dropped). The $USB gained +0.24 pct on the day, closing at 106.38, and TLT jumped +0.52 pct.

So, on Friday’s the bonds are being goosed. It seems that traders don’t want to be in equities over the weekend.

But they also don’t want to be in cash as T-Bill yields rallied +19 basis points this week.

Last weekend I wrote, “A six-week rally here will lift equities, lift gold, and push down the $USD. If markets get very frothy this summer, look to the penny stock promoters to be on the phone or sending you faxes and e-mails. (LOL)”

The bonds, the USD, the gold and platinum bullion are now pulling their end.

Depending on the data source (I use Yahoo Finance, which in turn uses ValuBond, which is quite different than Bloomberg, which is what professional traders use), the yields on the 30, 10, 5 and 2 year US Treasury paper at the close of the week were 5.23 (unchanged), 5.11 (-3 bp), 4.99 (-7 bp), and 4.89 (-11 bp) pct respectively.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Interactive Daily data charts:

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US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.56	4.54	4.37	4.73
6 Month	4.73	4.74	4.64	4.77
2 Year	4.89	4.95	5.00	4.81
3 Year	4.94	5.00	5.03	4.76
5 Year	4.99	5.05	5.06	4.75
10 Year	5.11	5.17	5.14	4.83
30 Year	5.23	5.28	5.23	4.98

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.78	3.76	3.77	3.69
2yr AAA	3.75	3.75	3.74	3.59
2yr A	3.82	3.87	3.78	3.65
5yr AAA	3.89	3.86	3.90	3.65
5yr AA	3.89	3.89	3.93	3.66
5yr A	2.23	1.36	1.67	3.75
10yr AAA	4.07	4.05	4.09	3.80
10yr AA	4.14	4.17	4.12	3.78
10yr A	4.28	4.26	4.36	4.08
20yr AAA	4.73	4.71	4.71	4.38
20yr AA	4.68	4.66	4.67	4.26
20yr A	4.73	4.73	4.76	4.44

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.25	5.30	5.35	5.18
2yr A	5.36	5.40	5.43	5.27
5yr AAA	5.52	5.57	5.59	5.29
5yr AA	5.62	5.68	5.67	5.33
5yr A	5.68	5.73	5.71	5.38
10yr AAA	5.86	5.90	5.83	5.75
10yr AA	5.95	6.00	5.93	5.58
10yr A	6.00	6.04	5.97	5.67
20yr AAA	6.24	6.29	6.29	5.94
20yr AA	6.25	6.28	6.14	5.93
20yr A	6.37	6.43	6.43	6.08

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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It will be interesting to see if the Fed and HB&B can hold the bond market here, or even rally it a bit, to hold equity prices from collapsing. I think they can, but I am not in the room and hence I am, like you, out of the deal.

I’d like to be a fly on that wall.

That reminds me, where has the Shanghai Fly buzzed off to?

Last weekend, I wrote, “On Thursday, we got a short-term Buy Alert on Bonds, as the RSI-7 Daily popped up across the 30 line. It is now 39.3. Meanwhile the Weekly and Monthly RSI-7 data is 18.8 and 32.1. You know what that meant for gold. Yes, I have written, “The gold players have been watching, watching, watching… and waiting to pounce. The moment those bond prices rebound (and yields come down), traders’ fingers will be all over the Gold buy button as well as the Bonds buy button.” The Fed has nowhere to turn here. I’m waiting for capital to flow out of T-Bills into Gold, should the Fed not drop rates. The spread between the Fed rate and the market rate for T-Bills is ridiculously large. I cannot see that continuing.”

We’ll the bond prices lifted a bit, and the T-Bill yields narrowed a bit closer to the Fed rate (nobody expects the FOMC to drop the rate this week, do they?), and some of the Precious Metals were a little stronger, this week.

But, really, nothing remarkable yet.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TIP	98.47	0.40	0.41%	0.44%	0.33%	-1.17%	-0.77%	-2.57%	-0.89%	-0.27%
IEF	80.44	0.23	0.29%	0.27%	0.17%	-1.91%	-2.71%	-3.48%	-3.21%	0.70%
SHY	79.98	0.08	0.10%	0.21%	0.31%	-0.14%	-0.07%	-0.55%	-0.37%	0.63%
AGG	98.08	0.23	0.24%	0.19%	0.38%	-1.34%	-1.83%	-2.41%	-2.42%	0.94%
TLT	83.72	0.43	0.52%	0.04%	-0.32%	-3.29%	-6.01%	-5.94%	-6.34%	0.14%
CFC	37.18	-0.74	-1.95%	-3.25%	-2.95%	-7.05%	-11.71%	2.20%	-10.11%	0.30%
FNM	66.00	-1.33	-1.98%	-4.00%	2.56%	1.93%	10.26%	16.30%	10.59%	40.22%
FRE	62.27	-0.45	-0.72%	-4.20%	-3.65%	-6.19%	-8.28%	0.05%	-8.41%	8.81%

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Fannie (FNM -4.00 pct), Freddie (FRE -4.2 pct) and Countrywide (CFC -3.25 pct) were a disaster this week as traders are starting to worry about things like F-MBS (Funny Money Backed Securities) (LOL) and credit swaps that might go bad.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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$CRB closed at 314.75, down -1.42 pct on the week.

I still think the stage is set for rising commodity prices, and a weaker dollar that will be blamed on (who else!) China. End of story.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Aug-07 Crude Oil chart.

The $WTIC price is now 69.14, up from 68.54, which was up from 64.76 a week before that, and 65.08 the week before that.

The $WTIC 50-Day Moving Average (from StockCharts) is now 65.36 and the 200-Day MA is 61.59. Hence the current price (69.14) is well over technical support, and possibly pulling up the trading range from 55-65 to 65-75.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

This week, $GOLD gained +1.83/oz to close at 657.00. A week ago, it gained +4.83/oz to close at 655.13.

The 50-day MA is now 672.05 and the 200-day MA is 642.07, so the (i) the important 200-day MA technical support held, and (ii) the current price (657.00) is somewhere between short-term bearish and long-term bullish.

But, “I still believe that this Summer the 698.00 cycle high on the Weekly data is the next to go, and after that the 730.40 cycle high of May 2006 will be next.”

Spot gold chart for the week

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER had a bad week. It lost -0.22/oz to close at 13.02.

The 50-day MA is 13.42 and the 200-day MA at 12.99, so the current price at 13.02 is still between a bearish short-term and a bullish long-term picture, although barely so.

Then again, “I still think the 14.22 previous cycle high price of the Daily data series will be taken out, but maybe not in June, and then the Feb cycle high of 14.885 is next, probably July-August.” You heard that from me when gold and silver were under siege the past two weeks.

I do admit that for Silver, I have concerns. Silver usually leads.

Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive 60-minute data

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT futures are now at 1313.00, up from 1285.50.

I am not too happy with the data quality at StockCharts.com this weekend, though, so I will not get too deep into it.

The 50-day MA is 1307.88 and the 200-day MA is 1206.93, so the current 1313.00 price is bullish.

As you know, “I think the 1354.20 cycle high price for Platinum that was set in early May will be taken out before August. The PM Bull is still running, I believe.” No change there.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL has been bullish since early October (290.88). It had been a little soft, but regained some color this week.

This week, $PALL gained +10.83 to close at 381.67. The 50-day MA is 375.12 and the 200-day MA is 346.12.

Last weekend I wrote, “The 50-day MA support did not hold recently. As you know, “Based on my PM group analysis, I still anticipate prices ahead, but I have to be cautious at this point.” I feel a bit better this week because of the action of silver, copper, and the Euro.”

Well, silver and copper didn’t help, but gold, platinum and the Euro did.

As you know, “I think the 390.45 cycle high of April will be taken out, maybe not in June, but in July. Possibly the 410.89 cycle high of May 2006 will be surpassed in August. Yes, I continue to believe the PM Bull is running.” I am close to being right.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER dropped -0.65, which was a blip, to close at 338.35.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is 347.68 and the 200-day MA is 315.75, so there is long-term technical support at this level, although the short-term MA represents technical resistance.

Prices over the past month have been quite volatile, and continue so. I have very little confidence in the London Metals Exchange. I figure that when a single HB&B holds the available supply of a metal, funny things can happen. And they do.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABX	29.75	0.17	0.57%	2.09%	5.05%	2.59%	-0.27%	2.27%	-0.50%	6.71%
BVN	35.59	-0.95	-2.60%	1.74%	5.77%	11.50%	28.90%	19.83%	32.06%	35.63%
GFI	16.50	-0.18	-1.08%	0.61%	2.68%	-4.35%	-9.98%	-9.19%	-10.81%	-18.92%
LIHRY	40.75	0.34	0.84%	0.02%	-10.54%	-7.20%	23.37%	0.00%	0.00%	2.77%
AEM	36.29	-0.57	-1.55%	-1.25%	1.91%	7.05%	-6.76%	-5.17%	-9.55%	21.66%
MDG	25.88	-0.07	-0.27%	-1.41%	2.50%	4.73%	-1.56%	3.11%	-4.54%	-11.34%
GG	24.43	0.03	0.12%	-1.61%	2.13%	8.63%	-10.64%	0.41%	-10.05%	-10.35%
AUY	12.66	-0.09	-0.71%	-2.54%	-2.99%	-0.71%	2.68%	-13.23%	0.96%	38.66%
NEM	39.38	-0.57	-1.43%	-2.60%	-1.30%	-0.18%	-10.90%	-9.49%	-12.53%	-20.46%
KGC	12.65	-0.16	-1.25%	-3.95%	-1.25%	-1.02%	10.77%	-9.77%	11.26%	29.74%

This week, $XAU dropped -1.60 to close at 139.17.

The 50-day MA (139.51) and 200-day MA (137.19) are close to the current price.

As I say, “Let’s keep it simple. Gold production is falling. Inflation, though possibly mild, is growing constantly. Fiat money is growing much more rapidly than real (enonomic) wealth, ie, where effective rates of return are obtained based on the risk involved. Unless central banks sell their gold holdings, the price is going higher. Why make it more complicated than that?”

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

After seven consecutive weeks of gains for the $USD, I wrote here last weekend, “The question is, can the $USD ride with the Paulson Pride army, or will economic fundamentals pull them down. In other words, as Central Banks around the world raise rates, can the US fail to do the same in order to keep the $USD on a roll up the mountain? I don’t think so, (and) I feel we shall get an answer this Summer.”

Voila. The $USD closed at 82.35, a loss of 50 cents (-0.61 pct W/W).

The $USD 50-Day MA is now 82.15, and the 200-Day MA is 83.99, so the current price (82.35) is barely bullish short-term and definitely bearish for the long-term oriented trader.

Here is the chart of the end of the week trading.

The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week.

M3 continues to grow at an excessive rate. Like a Banana Republic, someone wrote.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro (priced in USD) had another winning week. $XEU gained +0.61 pct W/W, closing Friday at 134.65. There was a strong gain (+0.58 pct) on Friday, so that means six strong sessions in a row.

The $XEU 50-Day MA is 135.00, and the 200-Day MA is 131.16, so the current price (134.65) is moderately short-term bearish, and long-term very bullish.

As I wrote in this space a week ago, “I think there will be some short-term bullishness ahead.”

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The British Pound gained +2.32 (+1.17 pct W/W) to close at 199.88. Wow!

The $XBP 50-Day MA is 198.68, and the 200-Day MA is 194.49, so the current price (199.88) is bullish.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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The Japanese Yen $XJY lost again this week. “It has been doing a lot of that recently.”

This week it lost -0.32 pct W/W, closing at 80.75, “so the Yen Carry Trade appears to still be alive and well. Strange isn’t it that whenever the US Treasury bonds need a lift, the answer seems to come from Japan? Do you think maybe the Treasury and the Fed are borrowing cheap Yen and investing in America? Isn’t that a way to offload some of America’s imported inflation (from China) to what is still the world’s second strongest economy?”

As you know, “I continue to believe that Yen weakness underlies my concern for the Japanese equity market and that the Nikkei Dow is going to crater at some point, and when those Japanese loans get cut off and the BoJ steps back in to support the Nikkei, that will be the death knell of many of the other global markets that have been cranked up via the expansion of debt.”

The Yen 50-Day MA is 82.73, and the 200-Day MA is 84.04, so the current price (80.75) is remarkably bearish.

Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar $CDW took another small loss this week, losing -0.16 (-0.17 pct W/W) to close down at 93.54.

There had been many consecutive weeks of mostly large gains against the $USD, which put Canadian in-bound tourism on the brink (the parking lots in Niagara Falls casinos are near empty) and the domestic manufacturing is being pulled back by US head offices.

The $CDW 50-Day MA is 91.59, and the 200-Day MA is 88.12, so the current price (93.54) is still a “hot” one.

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International Equity Markets Review

Clearly, the IPO business in Hong Kong and India was enthusiastic, and prices there lifted. But equity traders in North America and Europe are concerned that if corporate finance deals (IPO’s and M&A) don’t continue to hype the market, the long-running primary Bull might be over. So this week, we are going to be watching technical support levels, given that Mo (momentum indicators like RSI and MACD) weakened.

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Paciic stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

The Nikkei Dow may be at a double top (see 18215 in Feb-07 as well) from where it has peaked, and now about to start the winding road south.

The Mar-07 16600 support level is the critical one to watch this summer.

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Surprise is what the composite index ought to be called!

Maybe we should be seeking answers from the more stable Hong Kong market instead? The Hang Seng set a new record high on Friday at 22052 (21999.9 close). Does anybody recall the April 2003 low of 8331.9? I think there is support at 21000, 18700 and ultimately 17300 (the May-06 global scare). But that would be -21.4 pct lower than today!

At the least, profits should be protected.

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

The Indian economy is flourishing. The major IPO’s are being rolled out. At a close Friday of 14467, the Bombay 30 Sensex index is not far off the intra-day record 14723.9 (week of Feb 5-07).

But the index has been struggling for five weeks to challenge that Feb high.

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Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

I am glad to have not walked in the shoes of the London Footsie this week. Lots of pain (-2.45 pct). That would be the equivalent of a -334 point Dow loss on the week. Ouch!.

The 6567.4 Friday close seems to be supported technically in the 6400-6500 April and June levels. However, the real underpinning of the FTSE appears to be the 6000 level of March-07.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FXI	128.70	-1.23	-0.95%	4.86%	11.24%	17.02%	10.57%	26.10%	24.00%	79.87%
IFN	42.42	-0.57	-1.33%	1.97%	1.48%	2.54%	-6.44%	4.41%	-9.74%	-4.74%
QQQQ	47.29	-0.45	-0.94%	-0.92%	0.81%	2.45%	9.37%	6.85%	10.16%	23.83%
IEV	115.74	-1.35	-1.15%	-1.41%	0.82%	0.12%	9.60%	7.30%	11.93%	32.43%
EWU	25.22	-0.31	-1.21%	-1.45%	0.80%	0.28%	7.09%	5.17%	9.08%	24.24%
EWJ	14.40	-0.19	-1.30%	-1.64%	-1.84%	0.49%	1.41%	-3.23%	1.91%	10.77%
SPY	150.55	-1.40	-0.92%	-1.65%	-0.32%	-0.39%	6.49%	5.15%	6.96%	20.96%
EWC	29.83	-0.22	-0.73%	-2.45%	0.61%	1.29%	20.77%	14.60%	19.18%	32.11%
EWZ	61.04	-1.30	-2.09%	-2.59%	4.88%	8.77%	30.71%	25.31%	34.33%	71.41%
TRF	67.08	-1.60	-2.33%	-3.05%	4.85%	2.32%	-24.25%	-4.73%	-26.52%	8.33%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan’s EWJ (which is a USD-denominated NYSE-traded ETF) lost -0.24 (-1.6 pct W/W) to close at 14.40. The big crunch happened Friday.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

The EWU (UK market ETF trading in the US in USD) lost -1.5 pct to close at 25.22.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

The Canadian ETF that trades in the US as EWC (priced in USD) lost -2.5 pct on the week, to close at 29.83.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA dropped -2.05 pct, the S&P 500 dropped -1.98 pct, and the NASDAQ Composite was down –1.44 pct on the week. The Russell 2000 small cap index was off -1.58 pct.

DJIA (interactive) chart

A dozen NYSE DJIA stocks to watch.

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HD	39.36	-0.59	-1.48%	3.72%	3.72%	1.05%	-4.16%	2.69%	1.21%	7.89%
GM	35.46	-0.50	-1.39%	2.31%	14.39%	16.38%	20.41%	16.95%	20.53%	30.03%
DD	52.30	0.05	0.10%	1.61%	2.29%	1.87%	6.65%	1.85%	7.68%	25.24%
GE	38.24	-0.56	-1.44%	0.31%	2.47%	2.30%	0.71%	6.79%	1.78%	15.04%
KO	51.62	-0.47	-0.90%	0.08%	-0.10%	0.74%	6.26%	6.98%	6.70%	20.41%
CAT	80.90	-0.57	-0.70%	-0.26%	3.03%	7.25%	32.28%	21.58%	33.52%	11.93%
IBM	104.44	-2.16	-2.03%	-0.62%	1.33%	0.47%	7.37%	9.72%	9.65%	35.30%
DIS	34.14	-0.05	-0.15%	-0.76%	-0.18%	-4.74%	-0.18%	-3.37%	-0.06%	16.60%
UTX	71.38	-0.57	-0.79%	-0.87%	1.64%	4.57%	13.64%	8.02%	14.10%	15.33%
HPQ	45.18	-0.32	-0.70%	-1.16%	-1.31%	-0.48%	8.55%	11.69%	11.20%	37.03%
MMM	86.43	-0.98	-1.12%	-1.41%	0.57%	-0.83%	10.44%	11.12%	10.31%	8.59%
AIG	71.25	-0.80	-1.11%	-1.78%	-0.39%	-0.41%	-1.25%	4.46%	-0.59%	20.01%
INTC	23.70	-0.59	-2.43%	-2.23%	8.57%	7.87%	16.46%	23.70%	18.03%	29.86%
BA	95.92	-1.28	-1.32%	-2.27%	-2.31%	-1.54%	7.57%	5.91%	8.07%	14.11%
PG	61.03	-0.85	-1.37%	-2.46%	-3.23%	-2.93%	-5.44%	-4.42%	-4.34%	9.27%
C	52.41	-1.25	-2.33%	-2.91%	-1.73%	-4.59%	-5.14%	1.10%	-3.92%	8.80%
WMT	47.83	-0.56	-1.16%	-3.06%	-4.49%	2.53%	0.59%	-0.37%	5.03%	-1.34%
AXP	61.79	-0.87	-1.39%	-3.10%	-1.98%	-3.48%	2.37%	7.57%	1.54%	17.14%
VZ	41.63	-0.81	-1.91%	-3.16%	-3.34%	-2.14%	10.07%	9.52%	13.90%	27.15%
JNJ	60.73	-1.38	-2.22%	-3.25%	-2.25%	-4.33%	-8.54%	-0.21%	-7.49%	-0.74%
MSFT	29.49	-0.73	-2.42%	-3.28%	-1.86%	-2.25%	-1.24%	4.32%	-0.51%	28.89%
MCD	50.42	-0.65	-1.27%	-3.35%	-1.93%	-1.06%	14.93%	13.33%	15.72%	54.90%
MO	68.20	-0.38	-0.55%	-3.50%	-2.99%	-3.22%	5.05%	5.49%	7.18%	25.83%
T	38.85	-0.74	-1.87%	-3.55%	-3.50%	-3.88%	11.16%	-0.66%	11.06%	42.36%
JPM	48.72	-1.12	-2.25%	-3.64%	-3.35%	-5.56%	1.35%	0.52%	1.78%	18.63%
AA	40.00	-0.34	-0.84%	-3.85%	0.86%	-0.52%	36.38%	18.73%	36.80%	33.38%
XOM	82.52	-1.78	-2.11%	-3.98%	-0.19%	0.29%	11.35%	10.97%	9.43%	42.35%
PFE	25.38	-0.54	-2.08%	-4.12%	-4.30%	-6.96%	-3.46%	-1.59%	-2.27%	12.05%
MRK	48.55	-0.75	-1.52%	-4.30%	-3.17%	-9.67%	10.29%	9.92%	13.36%	37.73%
HON	55.68	-0.70	-1.24%	-5.42%	-2.96%	-0.55%	23.46%	17.02%	24.76%	42.40%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]

(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 22: next one is due Sep. 21)

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Chart of BA:

Unfortunately, I do not have time for any analysis of BA today.

My perspective in the bigger picture is that the stock is now on the decline, having been “perfectly priced” for too long.

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Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report May. 4: next one is due Aug. 3)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 30: next one is due Jun. 29)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 22: next one is due Sep. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May. 4: next one is due Aug. 3)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 15: next one is due Sep. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Apr. 6: next one is due Jul. 6)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 8: next one is due Sep. 7)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Apr. 6: next one is due Jul. 6)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 30: next one is due Jun. 29)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 11: next one is due Aug 10)

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Wrap up:

There will be some more changes made to the websites. Hopefully, the TraderWizard.com site will go up today.

I wish I had more time, but other things are happening. Like a life. (LOL)

I know that wherever you are in the world, we are connected somehow. It’s a small Web.

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