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Global Market Summary

International Equities: The international markets were shaky. Traders are concerned that a ‘sea change’ might be underway. That depends on your time frame. I think global traders still have many weeks yet before walking the plank.

U.S. Equities : The broad US market indexes were split into a two-part week. Tuesday through Thursday was a nightmare for the Bulls. There was a strong recovery Friday that still couldn’t push the indexes into positive ground.

Dow 30 : The DJIA moved from 13,668 down to 13424. Aweek ago there were 25 components up. This week there were 25 down. But on Friday only MRK and DIS were down.

U.S. Sector ETFs: Ten of 10 US sector ETF’s were down this week. On Friday, 10 of 10 gained. Quite a mix-up as far as rotation goes

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #4 (-0.7 pct); $WTIC headed lower
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #7 (-2.2 pct); Steel, metals and gold are down
20: Industrials (XLI): #5 (-1.6 pct); Mixed with some good happening here
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #9 (-2.4 pct); Mostly negative
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #3 (-1.4 pct); WMT still a good story
35: Healthcare (IYH): #8 (-2.4 pct); Mostly soft
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #6 (-2.2 pct); European banks fared poorly
45: Tech (SMH chips): #1 (-0.7 pct); Best of a bad lot
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #2 (-1.2 pct); T & VZ not helping
55: Utilities (XLU): #10 (-5.6 pct); a disaster for Utility Bulls

Bonds: US Bonds were hurt again, but modestly so. The Talking Heads and media personalities yattered away all week about this lousy bond market. It wasn’t that bad.

Commodities: $CRB may have crashed in price this week thanks to an inside heist by HB&B, but the values are still there, and I believe the selling was overdone. $CRB dropped -2.04 pct on Friday to pull the week down -2.10 pct.

Oil & Gas: Crude oil dropped from 65.08 to 64.76. No big deal although the media will claim otherwise.

Gold: $GOLD was hammered -26.60 (-3.9 pct) and the goldminers index ($XAU) was down -4.9 pct. Mostly this happened in one day – Friday --. Nest week will be different.

Goldminers: The $XAU hasn’t moved much over two weeks, but scared traders are agog over Friday.

Forex: The $USD did little this week, but it did strengthen, along with the Yen, and the Euro and Pound weakened. Friday was a reversal of that.

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar for next week.

Econoday Weekly International Report.

Econoday report on the US International Trade Balance.

Econoday report on June 7 policy announcement of the Bank of England.

Econoday report on June 6 policy announcement by the European Central Bank.

Econoday report on June 5 on the US Non-Manufacturing ISM Survey.

Econoday report on June 5 on the April US Factory Orders.

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Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.

Ten of the ten sector ETF’s I follow here were DOWN this week. A week ago, all ten were up, and I wrote, “It was a very strong week, largely on the strength of Wednesday afternoon’s rally following release of the FOMC Minutes of the May 9 meeting. We got back to a normal sector rotation this week.” What a difference a week makes.

But a trading week usually has five days. And along came Friday and all ten of my sector ETF’s were UP. So where are we?

Where we are is that some traders are saying, “We can’t time markets,” and that is a pile of rubbish. Would you rather just turn your capital over to the Sell-side, and let them have their way with you?

I suggest that people who talk silliness either do not yet understand capital markets or they don’t have a grip on themselves. For that reason, and thinking ahead fearing I would hear such talk, I decided to step up to the plate and, once again, try to use the market as a laboratory where I can teach and some people can learn.

On Friday morning, following three solidly down days, and with no signs of a reversal in sight, I wrote,

“Is there a sea change in capital markets underway today? Yes, but not in the way most people think when they look at red arrows popping up all over computer monitors. That is a temporary, and fleeting phenomenon, which will be shortly resolved by even higher prices of stocks and bonds… I am writing this today because I believe the equity and debt markets will soon recover this recent piece of nastiness that followed a crack in the Shanghai stock market to begin the week, just like what happened a couple months ago… I sat back and looked at what’s happened to put the stock market into the position it’s in today. In five weeks, yields on the US Treasury 30, 10, 5 and 2 year debt instruments (are up +27 basis points, +33bp, +38bp, and +38 bp). That shock to the US bond market is being attributed to inflation fears. But five weeks ago, the Commodity Index ($CRB) closed the week at 311.24, and yesterday it was 313.92, which is hardly earth-shattering. At the same time $GOLD has moved from 689.70 DOWN to 665.20. Crude Oil ($WTIC) has moved up from 61.93 to 66.93, but there has been an escalation of exogenous military and weather events that has aided that increase. Moreover, the US economic data has not recently registered any Richter Scale readings on the inflation front. So, there is nothing about inflation that I can see in the past five weeks to cause bond yields to rally and prices to fall to such an extent. In addition, following the significant breakdown in US stock prices yesterday, there was no panic in the Asia-Pacific markets, and Europe this morning is weak but not overly so at this point.”

And sure enough, later on Friday, traders started to get a grip. Crude oil dropped -3.24 pct, Gold dropped -2.24 pct and the Commodities Index dropped -2.04 pct IN A SINGLE DAY. And the US broad market moved up like it was being elevated by some Supreme Being.

Now I don’t want to get into religion or politics here, but when traders in a thoroughly agitated market see the four major market indexes of the US (NASDAQ, S&P500, DJIA and Russell 2000) move up +1.27 pct, +1.14 pct, +1.18 pct, and +1.21 pct in a day – how conveniently consistent – they figure the books are being cooked.

And they are, which is what I have been saying for years. Markets move when the Gnomes and HB&B want them to move, for reasons they have agreed to in quiet boardrooms and secure phones. There is no transparency in capital markets when the biggest players, including the Treasury Secretary and the Fed Chairman, are pulling the strings without disclosing their intent or their rationale.

Does this mean that We The People cannot use the capital markets to our advantage in protecting and building our wealth? Not at all. In fact, because we individually have so relatively little wealth, we do not have the problem that movers and shakers have. We can counter every move that large capital pools make. But, first we have to stop listening to their Talking Heads and stick to prices.

It is a simple theorem in markets that prices revert to the mean. So, when price motion becomes extreme in one direction or another, we can use tools like Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Departure Analysis (my words for MACD) to tell us when the price cycles are reaching maximum amplitude, statistically speaking. All then we need to understand is that, because traders are statistically segmented along the risk scale from very conservative to high risk-taking, there are different cycles at work, which we can track by using monthly, weekly and daily price series in our numerical analysis.

And that is all I try to say. Market timing is, like my color blindness, a matter of degree. Like I happen to be the worst case of color blindness of well over 20,000 records in my local medical center, but can still see color (and hence can drive a car), you don’t have to be 100 pct accurate in your market timing to adequately manage your wealth. In fact, statistically speaking, you will never be 100 pct accurate. If you can be just 60 pct or 66 pct accurate and manage to keep your average losses smaller than your average gains, you will outperform (an educated guess) probably 95 pct to 98 pct of all professional capital managers.

Has nobody ever explained this to you or do you just not believe it? If it is the latter, I’ll give you proof. The fact is that capital markets are not rocket science. And even if you think so, how can you explain that in 1969 the first humans to walk on the moon were put there with computers that were 64k – not MB but just 64 kilobytes -- of CPU.

Isn’t it laughable that with 2 MB of dual-core CPU today, some people seem to think they cannot calculate the simplest of mathematics?

Pick good quality companies and buy their shares only at the cycle bottoms and sell only at the cycle tops; avoid debt, which often forces you to sell at a disadvantage; and trade within you emotional and financial resources and needs. It is that simple.

No amount of spin by Talking Heads, or manipulation by movers and shakers, or exogenous events like weather, should ever take you off your wealth management plan. As I say, from Tuesday to Thursday this past week was nothing but a blip on the radar screen. We had another one a couple months ago. Maybe we’ll have another one in a month or two.

And if you follow my traders Rule #1, which says if you ever feel uncomfortable with capital at risk, you close the position, you will avoid financial loss and heartache. You may miss the top 5 or 6 pct of a cycle – at tops and bottoms – but you will consistently outperform the large majority of people who call themselves wealth management experts.

So let’s see what the market ended up the week doing.

Table 1 is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SMH	36.72	1.03	2.89%	-0.70%	1.80%	-2.13%	9.38%	7.90%	7.40%	11.95%
IYZ	34.11	0.55	1.64%	-1.24%	1.43%	4.50%	15.00%	13.02%	17.50%	36.39%
XLP	27.51	0.21	0.77%	-1.40%	0.59%	1.40%	4.68%	5.24%	5.52%	15.64%
XLE	67.92	0.28	0.41%	-1.45%	1.75%	6.54%	20.04%	17.81%	12.69%	27.14%
XLI	38.65	0.59	1.55%	-1.60%	0.99%	1.98%	9.71%	9.58%	9.46%	16.70%
XLF	37.20	0.41	1.11%	-2.16%	-0.85%	-0.40%	0.76%	3.97%	2.73%	13.41%
XLB	40.40	0.76	1.92%	-2.18%	1.58%	2.67%	16.73%	9.54%	13.64%	30.96%
IYH	70.80	0.50	0.71%	-2.40%	-1.87%	-0.45%	6.53%	6.53%	6.90%	16.26%
XLY	39.36	0.43	1.10%	-2.41%	-0.43%	0.56%	2.18%	3.09%	2.98%	18.48%
XLU	39.28	0.33	0.85%	-5.60%	-4.38%	-6.48%	6.68%	2.69%	6.83%	21.99%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

XLE had a terrific Friday (+2.89 pct), but still closed down a dollar (-0.70 pct W/W) at 67.92.

Crude Oil on the NYMEX (WTI) dropped even more, closing at 64.76/bbl, down -2.04 pct on Friday and -2.10 pct W/W.

So, when the Gnomes and HB&B wanted some market relief they pulled down the oil price on Friday. No big deal. They had their Talking Heads say that fighting in the Middle East and Nigeria appeared to be calmer, the weather somewhat better, fewer hurricanes likely to make landfall, shorter driving trips planned this Summer, bigger inventor builds than anticipated, yada, yada. It’s all nonsense folks. It’s just their perverted way of selling the deal.

I learned a long time ago that every con artist needs an element of truth in the pitch to gain some credibility in order to hold the audience for the eventual sting.

Perhaps America’s most trusted figure in the past century, Walter Cronkite, was asked by his CNBC host on the NYSE floor a couple years ago what advice he might have for broadcast journalists today. He replied, “Stick to the facts.” That was a warning to mass media that has been taken over by people with axes to grind.

“Just the Facts, ma’am” – Sargent Friday (Dragnet, 1950’s).

A week ago I wrote, “CEO +5.6 pct, PBR +4.9 pct, and SU +3.8 pct are indicative of the rush into international oil stocks.” This week, CEO jumped +8.8 pct (including +2.0 pct Friday), PBR lost -1.5 pct W/W but was up +2.7 pct on Friday, and SU dropped -1.4 pct, but gained +0.8 pct on Friday. ECA also gained +0.7 pct this week, after a rally Friday of +1.0 pct.

Mostly, other than China National Offshore Oil (CEO), not much is happening. There is a lot of political intrigue going on in Canada, with Exxon (XOM) and it’s 70 pct controlled Canadian sub Imperial Oil (IMO) in a fencing match with the federal government about how much the Canadian taxpayer ought to pay for those companies to build a major new pipeline. The govt has countered with the word that maybe other companies ought to step up to the plate.

This situation shows that no matter how many billions these companies earn in profits in a week or a month, and hundreds of millions of dollars they pay to retiring managers, their arrogance still drives them to pressure govt into taking from the taxpayers their hard-earned money to stuff more into the corporate coffers. The mind boggles.

In any event both XOM and IMO are Cara Global Best 100 companies. Traders cannot doubt their financial strength, consistency and operating metrics. If govt wants to continue to transfer the people’s capital to the wealthy Gnomes, that’s the People’s loss.

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Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CEO	104.96	2.09	2.03%	8.59%	14.62%	21.23%	11.34%	28.00%	18.41%	44.79%
ECA	62.82	0.59	0.95%	0.72%	4.49%	11.56%	38.55%	32.31%	18.98%	30.90%
SU	87.46	0.70	0.81%	-1.35%	2.44%	6.65%	18.33%	23.36%	10.36%	17.87%
PBR	109.54	2.92	2.74%	-1.50%	3.32%	10.31%	9.91%	22.67%	11.53%	35.82%
XOM	82.68	0.72	0.88%	-1.83%	0.49%	4.14%	11.56%	15.07%	9.51%	38.79%
CVX	80.69	0.49	0.61%	-1.87%	0.90%	3.20%	13.70%	17.86%	10.79%	39.46%
TOT	74.44	0.42	0.57%	-2.13%	-0.68%	0.76%	4.89%	12.57%	4.45%	21.28%
IMO	46.48	0.69	1.51%	-2.23%	1.33%	16.96%	30.34%	31.63%	20.73%	34.57%
STO	27.49	0.23	0.84%	-2.45%	-0.65%	-1.01%	7.01%	8.19%	1.07%	1.81%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) dropped -2.2 pct W/W to 40.40, but gained +1.9 pct on Friday.

A week ago, I wrote about XLB, “This week gold moved up +2.34 pct and silver +5.69 pct. The big moves in the mid/large cap golds were AEM +11.7 pct, AUY +10.0 pct and GG +9.3 pct. The biggest movers were the steelers and base metals. GGB +14.2 pct, RIO +11.6 pct, TCK +10.4 pct, BHP +8.8 pct, PKX +8.7 pct, NUE +8.4 pct… well, you get the point.”

Let’s run the same numbers this week, to get an idea of the real damage. AEM -6.0 pct, AUY -6.9 pct, GG -2.7 pct, GGB -2.4 pct, RIO -5.5 pct, TCK +0.3 pct, BHP +3.4 pct, PKX +1.6 pct, and NUE -3.8 pct. Big disappointment, right? Not actually.

Over two weeks, the data reads: AEM +5.0 pct, AUY +2.4 pct, GG +6.4 pct, GGB +11.4 pct, RIO +5.4 pct, TCK +10.7 pct, BHP +12.5 pct, PKX +10.4 pct, and NUE +4.2 pct.

That is a pretty spectacular two-week move. In two years holding US govt bonds, you can’t earn that. My point however is that traders cannot focus on a three-day period like Tuesday-Thursday of this week. You have to average prices out. That’s precisely why we use RSI and MACD. It helps keep our sanity when interventionists are determined to pull our chain.

Now when market trends change from positive to negative or vice versa, the analysis of RSI and MACD and technical indicators helps us make that assessment. More than any other task, it’s Job One to stay on the right side of trend. That one step will help us make 60 pct to 66 pct or more of winning trades, and also help us to make our average winners bigger than our average losers.

So use the trend and cycle analysis of the price series, and buy only the shares of these good quality companies, and you will soon lose interest in what the Talking Heads and media personalities are frothing at the mouth about.

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BHP	55.78	1.02	1.86%	3.41%	12.46%	8.39%	43.50%	30.45%	37.29%	41.47%
PKX	124.57	4.36	3.63%	1.61%	10.43%	10.41%	56.83%	25.98%	58.00%	110.60%
TCK	42.84	1.06	2.54%	0.33%	10.73%	-48.07%	-38.14%	-36.45%	-43.47%	0.00%
GGB	23.30	0.86	3.83%	-2.39%	11.43%	13.99%	41.90%	39.69%	42.42%	70.70%
MT	61.70	1.30	2.15%	-2.64%	7.45%	12.16%	51.23%	17.52%	45.35%	102.96%
NUE	66.61	1.81	2.79%	-3.81%	4.22%	2.79%	22.22%	5.53%	1.62%	36.22%
AA	39.66	0.73	1.88%	-4.34%	-1.37%	5.39%	35.22%	22.07%	27.48%	31.89%
RTP	281.64	5.25	1.90%	-4.96%	1.13%	0.23%	37.99%	33.18%	30.75%	43.77%
RIO	44.42	1.27	2.94%	-5.53%	5.44%	2.33%	54.13%	29.54%	51.81%	108.35%
TS	47.00	0.71	1.53%	-5.72%	1.58%	8.05%	-3.13%	5.62%	0.90%	35.68%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Industrials (XLI) dropped -1.60 pct this week but were up +2.64 pct a week ago. The XLI also lifted +1.55 pct on Friday to close the week at 38.65.

Yes, Fedex (FDX) dropped -1.70 pct, but over two weeks is up +3.3 pct. Yes, Brazil’s Embraer (ERJ) dropped 1.8 pct, but over two weeks is up +2.7 pct. Yes, Swiss ABB was down -2.3 pct, but over two weeks is up +2.0 pct.

And Caterpillar (CAT) is up +4.1 pct over two weeks, and Honeywell (HON) is up +2.5 pct over two weeks.

So there are stocks still on the move to higher ground here. In fact 8 of the 10 that I monitor are up, and only GE (-0.16 pct) and MMM (-1.4 pct) are down over two weeks, and not by enough to concern me than the US equity market is headed south, yet.

Soon, as I say, but in my opinion, not quite yet.

Actually, the US Military-Industrial complex is not the place to be looking for leadership in a new Bull market. Like the Oils, Metals and Gold, these are the laggards in the usual sector rotation. The Financials, Consumers and Techs are the usual leaders both down and back up. So far, on that front, the Utilities (part of the Financials) is the one showing me the most concern. But I’ll get to that analysis in a few minutes.

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Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CAT	78.52	1.21	1.57%	0.49%	4.10%	6.38%	28.38%	22.10%	23.85%	17.39%
GE	37.32	0.56	1.52%	-0.35%	-0.16%	1.47%	-1.71%	8.33%	5.81%	7.95%
UTX	70.23	1.36	1.97%	-0.78%	2.89%	3.25%	11.81%	8.78%	8.51%	16.45%
BA	98.19	1.35	1.39%	-1.64%	0.79%	5.81%	10.12%	10.46%	8.94%	20.94%
FDX	109.40	2.00	1.86%	-1.70%	3.29%	2.01%	-0.34%	-3.69%	-5.12%	1.52%
ERJ	47.53	-0.07	-0.15%	-1.76%	2.70%	1.13%	16.55%	4.74%	14.61%	39.71%
ABB	21.24	0.34	1.63%	-2.30%	1.97%	8.59%	19.19%	25.53%	25.16%	92.04%
HON	57.38	0.98	1.74%	-2.41%	2.48%	0.91%	27.23%	21.29%	35.08%	47.51%
MMM	85.94	1.06	1.25%	-2.82%	-1.39%	1.52%	9.81%	15.32%	9.39%	5.13%

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) dropped -2.41 pct W/W to close at 39.36.

That was #9 performer (second worst), and Healthcare (another consumer segment) was #8 of 10. But Consumer Staples was #3.

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TM	124.45	1.32	1.07%	1.23%	3.43%	6.55%	-8.02%	-7.43%	2.02%	22.62%
WHR	110.83	3.19	2.96%	-0.50%	-0.31%	-0.48%	30.91%	24.78%	29.11%	31.16%
EBAY	31.42	0.81	2.65%	-2.63%	-3.94%	-7.21%	4.14%	1.29%	-1.04%	0.64%
DIS	34.20	-0.06	-0.18%	-2.95%	-4.58%	-4.17%	0.00%	-1.41%	-0.55%	14.50%
CCL	49.00	0.07	0.14%	-3.05%	-1.15%	1.81%	-3.83%	5.95%	3.62%	31.02%
BC	33.70	0.60	1.81%	-3.16%	-1.26%	1.91%	5.58%	1.41%	3.53%	-3.38%
JCP	78.30	0.51	0.66%	-4.50%	-0.72%	1.95%	0.31%	-3.17%	1.78%	20.29%
SBUX	27.67	0.23	0.84%	-5.01%	-2.26%	-6.33%	-21.50%	-9.87%	-24.03%	-23.65%
NKE	52.96	-1.14	-2.11%	-6.58%	-2.77%	-0.66%	8.46%	1.26%	9.15%	31.32%

A week ago, I wrote, “NKE (+4.1 pct) keeps running. And the upscale market keeps JC Penny (JCP) rolling (4.0 pct).” Well this week, NKE dropped -6.6 pct (down -2.8 pct over 2 weeks on a HB&B downgrade), and JCP was down -4.5 pct (-0.7 pct over 2 weeks).

Toyota Lexus (TM) was up +1.1 pct on Friday (on a HB&B upgrade), taking the stock to a gain of +1.2 pct over 1 week, +3.4 pct over 2 weeks, and +6.6 pct over 4 weeks. But, if you check, you’ll see the $USD was rallying over this time.

If, as and when you see the $USD dip again (and gold rise), you can guess that the wealthy are selling dollars and their Lexus in order to buy precious metals. Not always true, but it is a good pairs trade.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was down 1.40 pct W/W to close at $27.51.

Wal-Mart is still on a roll. A week ago I wrote, “WMT had quite a month on Friday (+3.9 pct), ending the week up +6.1 pct.”

This week WMT gained +1.23 pct to close at $50.08. Recall the many skeptics out there when WMT was in the Cara Accumulation Zone and the Talking Heads were bashing this company (and I just kept counterpunching back).

Yes, WMT has a long way back before shareholders are remotely happy, but now that half of Wall Street has issued a ratings improvements, the shares are walking north (up +7.4 pct over 2 weeks).

Companhia de Bebidas Das Americas (AMBEV) (ABV) lost -3.4 pct this week, but is still up +5.1 pct over 2 weeks, +11.7 pct over 4 weeks, and +39.0 pct YTD. Party time in Brazil was interrupted this week. We’ll have to keep an eye on it.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WMT	50.08	0.32	0.64%	1.23%	7.35%	4.88%	5.32%	4.59%	8.05%	5.88%
PG	63.07	0.75	1.20%	-0.65%	0.32%	2.57%	-2.28%	1.22%	-1.28%	15.22%
WAG	44.31	0.36	0.82%	-1.82%	-0.63%	-0.36%	-3.82%	-0.69%	1.56%	5.95%
MO	70.30	0.75	1.08%	-2.12%	-0.24%	3.32%	8.29%	8.98%	10.43%	31.40%
KO	51.67	0.29	0.56%	-2.14%	0.84%	-1.54%	6.36%	9.59%	5.64%	19.08%
BUD	52.60	0.27	0.52%	-2.61%	2.57%	5.47%	6.87%	5.58%	10.04%	16.66%
PEP	66.61	0.26	0.39%	-3.04%	-2.69%	0.39%	6.20%	5.65%	5.28%	10.78%
ABV	68.26	2.10	3.17%	-3.46%	5.06%	11.66%	39.02%	32.52%	43.61%	72.03%
DEO	82.86	0.10	0.12%	-3.67%	-2.70%	-1.11%	4.19%	8.50%	6.99%	23.21%
WFMI	39.32	0.33	0.85%	-5.64%	-2.89%	-4.45%	-13.54%	-14.97%	-19.56%	-39.82%

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The IYH healthcare ETF was down -2.40 pct W/W to close at 70.80.

IYH has been up for six consecutive Fridays. The drugmakers and healthcare providers must be happy seeing those legislators go home for the weekends.

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BMET	45.49	-0.07	-0.15%	3.55%	4.29%	5.15%	9.69%	7.87%	14.01%	28.72%
AMGN	57.37	0.73	1.29%	0.76%	5.13%	0.07%	-16.13%	-7.72%	-17.95%	-16.14%
GSK	51.57	0.23	0.45%	0.57%	-1.94%	-8.60%	-4.16%	-7.30%	-1.81%	-6.91%
AET	52.25	0.85	1.65%	-1.91%	1.26%	5.11%	21.85%	18.64%	23.29%	28.13%
JNJ	62.13	0.13	0.21%	-2.02%	-2.13%	-0.59%	-6.43%	0.66%	-5.79%	0.93%
NVS	55.09	-0.23	-0.42%	-2.18%	-1.77%	-3.32%	-5.25%	-2.84%	-4.51%	1.81%
UNH	53.67	0.31	0.58%	-2.79%	-1.00%	1.23%	2.09%	0.64%	7.53%	16.04%
DNA	76.97	2.07	2.76%	-3.18%	-0.86%	-3.26%	-5.90%	-5.14%	-7.70%	-2.19%
BMY	29.27	0.10	0.34%	-3.97%	-2.53%	-2.04%	10.96%	7.77%	15.46%	15.92%
PFE	26.52	0.23	0.87%	-4.19%	-2.79%	-1.04%	0.87%	4.37%	5.36%	11.15%

A week ago, I wrote, “The story remains GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Amgen (AMGN).” Yes, even this week AMGN (+0.8 pct) and GSK (+0.6 pct) were gainers in a losing sector, and Biomet (BMET), an old favorite until Humungous Private Equity Corp decided to whet its appetite, was up +3.6 pct.

The story for me this week was catching Genentech (DNA) in a free-fall as I decided to include the company in the Cara Global Best 100 on Friday. I did that at 2:15pm ET Friday, not at the cycle bottom at the close of Thursday, but close nonetheless. I have now missed almost two years of Bear phase for DNA. No professional buyer of Genentech stock going back to May 2005 is in at a lower price.

If you check the metrics and financial strength of this company, you will see a shining performance. The Cara 100 lists are not my attempt to time the market. These are just watchlists. However, I know that too many of you misconstrue my intentions, so I must be careful not to add a new corporate selection when it is in a Distribution Zone.

Even at the end of the day on Friday, the RSI-7 for DNA is 34.7 / 31.7 / 44.9, which takes me back to 2H2002 since seeing RSI so low. That is another reason I was happy to put Genentech into the Cara 100 on Friday.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) dropped -2.16 pct to close at 37.20. Three big European banks were hammered: Deutsch Bank (DB) -5.7 pct; Credit Suisse (CS) -5.7 pct; and UBS (UBS) -5.4 pct. Merrill Lynch (MER) dropped -4.8 pct W/W. On my monitor, only Morgan Stanley (MS) was up on the week (+1.2 pct), thanks to a Friday gain of +2.8 pct.

YTD, other than the “G-Team’s” Goldman Sachs (GS) (+12.1 pct), most of the Financials that I refer to as HB&B (Humungous Bank & Broker) are not performing well. Evenly weighted, my list of ten, most heavily capitalized, top-quality US, UK and European components of HB&B are up on average just +1.84 pct YTD, and the year is almost half over. That is another sign of a toppy market. Should the average of these big banks and brokers go negative over the most recent six-month period; that would be a time to move your portfolio to the sidelines.

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Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MS	87.10	2.37	2.80%	1.20%	3.13%	3.22%	6.71%	15.50%	10.80%	47.68%
HBC	92.53	0.93	1.02%	-0.72%	0.01%	-0.52%	-0.47%	5.05%	2.58%	7.73%
LEH	74.19	0.90	1.23%	-1.38%	1.24%	-1.12%	-5.65%	-2.06%	-3.69%	12.92%
C	53.33	0.81	1.54%	-2.16%	-2.91%	0.24%	-3.48%	5.60%	2.85%	6.77%
GS	225.06	5.01	2.28%	-2.45%	-0.27%	0.88%	12.13%	12.56%