This was a monster week for the Bulls, especially in Basic Materials (XLB +3.9 pct W/W) and to a lesser extent Energy (XLE +3.3 pct W/W). In fact many resource stocks in the Cara 100 ripped. How about GGB +14.2 pct, RIO +11.6 pct, TCK +10.4 pct, BHP +8.8 pct, PKX +8.7 pct, NUE +8.4 pct, SU 3.8 pct, ECA +3.7 pct and IMO +3.6 pct. All W/W.

As one of the readers said, “I’m feeling a little better now.” Tell me about it.

This was also looking until Wednesday afternoon like a week where the US equity market was going to move apart from most international markets. Then along came the FOMC Minutes of the Fed meeting of May 9. Immediately, the US broad market was pulled higher in catch up mode with the international exchanges.

I don’t see how the US Bull is ever going to catch the one in Brazil or China. If we go back to 2004 when I made my appearance as the Trader Wizard, readers were asking why I would pick so many stocks in the Cara 100 – over one-eighth -- from those places.

In the past 30 months, I’ll bet the stocks of those 13 companies are up +100 pct or more, but whose counting anyway?

Actually… in 29 months, the gain is +150.1 pct. For Brazil the gain is +175.9 pct.

With dividends, the Total Return is much higher.

I was thinking about Brazil a lot on Friday. Some of you know that the Cara Micro-cap 100 project is being headed by a Swiss ex-pat in Brazil and that I’m working with him daily to come up with a list of 100 companies with a cap of between $100 million and $1 billion that I and my Team Micro think have a chance of having the share price run 5x in 3 to 5 years.

In addition to that, I was watching AmBev (Companhia de Bebidas) (ABV) rocket up by a stunning +4.3 pct ON FRIDAY and +8.8 pct on the week, and it hit me between the eyes. Why do I go on and on about the Brazilian beer maker. It’s not the beer, stupid, it’s Brazil!

So dress me in a costume (not a clown suit), fill me up with the stuff AmBev makes and point me to Carnival.

But, in case you are missing what’s happening these days, the Bull is not just in the Emerging Markets. How about Europe, which started to rocket ahead around March 15?

March 15? So what was I saying back then.

Well in WIR#10 (March 10) I called for a rally back to the 50 day MA only. Then in WIR #11 (March 17), I had the following to say:

This week was one of the most fascinating in capital markets for many years, and yesterday was a day of television that I believe must have left the world agog. Yes, we live in interesting times.

CNN aired an interview of Donald Trump by lead anchor Wolf Blitzer where Trump called President Bush, "probably the worst president in the history of the United States," adding that former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was a "disaster".

And, about the Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, “… a lovely woman but she never makes a deal. She doesn't make deals. She waves. She gets off the plane, she waves. She sits down with some dictator, 45 degree angle. They do the camera shot. She waves again. She gets back on the plane. She waves. No deal ever happens.”

About the White house, Trump says, "I don't know what's going on. I just know they got us into a mess, the likes of which this country has probably never seen. It's one of the great catastrophes of all time."

The world is watching. ...

My concern is that many of you will obsess over the negatives that proliferate in Bear markets, which may cause you to miss the buying opportunities that will, in time, appear.

Just remember the expression, “Things are never that good, and they are never that bad.” As we move forward in time, there is a constant reversion to the mean. If you remain objective and independent in your thinking, you’ll be able to see all that.

So, I figured something was going on. I called a rally, and I didn’t want to get caught up in all the negatives, and yet I can’t forget 2000-2002.

That’s the way it goes sometimes. You realize that late-Bull market rallies is where a lot of money is made, but you also have to have your finger close to the Sell button.

About the story that Humungous Private Equity Corp is going to propel this equity market well beyond a moon-shot because of this and that, I heard the same with Long Term Capital Management.

Just remember, wherever there is plenty of ointment around, there is always a fly close by.

Ointment btw is that viscous semisolid preparation being spread around the Sell button – just so you might miss it on the way by. Be careful with these stories of capital managers with impressive positions. They have a vested interest to hold their positions until the last moment – and then they simply have too much capital in the market to pull out. I see this every few years, where the track record of these people after the Bear cycle plays out is less than inspiring.

That doesn’t make them bad traders; just traders with a very difficult job. For some reason the media likes to focus on those people – mostly when the Bull has reached an old age and some olé’s are needed to inspire it.

Bravo, shouted the cheering section.

Right before that final frenzy.

This week, I intend to get into a piece of nonsense I will refer to as the BY Fiasco. Oil traders know the BY as the spread between the ICE Brent and the NYMEX WTI. In simple terms, it is the difference between the price of oil in Europe versus the US.

The bottom line is that I believe the US Admin and Fed are conspiring to keep the price of West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude oil lower than it should be. That skews the inflation data in the favor of these politicos who want to impress traders that inflation is not a serious problem, that interest rates do not have to rise, that equity prices should expand and, last but not least, CPI-indexed Social Security payments can be lowered.

I believe this is a fraud. Moreover, when the Admin/Fed want to kill the Bull, all they need do is start buying more oil for the so-called Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which will push the price into the 70’s, above the Brent (as it should be), which will cause the Fed to say, “We need to raise rates to head off the inflation-push caused by oil” and voila. Dead Bull.

But not before Friends & Family clear their inventory of stocks, and load up on puts.

I mean why else would people spend several hundred million dollars to get elected to a job paying a couple hundred grand? It’s called ‘management control’ – otherwise known as an opportunity to ‘get theirs’.

And when the equity market finally goes into the can, the Fed can slash their benchmark rate and tell you it was over the economy, stupid.

It’s all so predictable. Maybe Disney should take the next Pirates sequel to Washington. Do you think?

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: The international markets were strong. But the foreign ETF’s that trade in the US in USD were much stronger than the actual moves on those foreign exchanges. And since the $USD didn’t move much either way this week, I think you ought to be suspicious.

U.S. Equities : The broad US market indexes enjoyed a terrific 4-day holiday week. In fact, the NASDAQ jumped all the way from 2557 to 2614. There was a two-hour flourish on Wednesday afternoon that put a lot of the zip in the numbers. At the end week, the NASDAQ was up +2.2 pct, the S&P 500 up +1.4 pct, the DJIA up +1.2 pct and the Russell small cap 2000 up +2.8 pct. Those four days made for a pretty good month.

Dow 30 : The DJIA moved from 13,507 to 13,668. Lots of movement here, but I expect the broad market to sidetrack through the Summer. I think the FOMC story is going to get stale as interest rates rise, and drivers shun the fuel pumps this summer.

U.S. Sector ETFs: Ten of 10 US sector ETF’s were up this week. On Friday, 9 of 10 gained. Only Utilities (XLU) took a hit on the day.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #2 (+3.3 pct); $WTIC headed higher this summer
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #1 (+3.9 pct); Steel, metals and gold are up
20: Industrials (XLI): #4 (+2.6 pct); This strength is not just America
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #6 (+2.0 pct); Stuff on sale
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #7 (+2.0 pct); WMT up +3.9 pct Fri. (+6.1 pct W/W)
35: Healthcare (IYH): #10 (+0.5 pct); AMGN bounce
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #8 (+1.3 pct); The Swiss banks did well
45: Tech (SMH chips): #5 (+2.5 pct); ADBE, CSCO, ORCL all strong
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #3 (+2.7 pct); T & VZ were hurt Fri w/o M&A
55: Utilities (XLU): #9 (+1.3 pct); Friday was a losing day

Bonds: US Bonds were smashed again. At least there is now an upward sloping yield curve. But isn’t that due to a rush to cash and from bonds to commodities. The rally in yields of +6 to +9 bp, when combined with the changes of a week ago, amount to the same horror show (+11 bp to +15 bp lift) of two weeks ago. The Bond Bulls are trying to look at things on the bright side. At least the pain is lessening. And we might be getting oversold on bonds. I am looking for a relief rally soon.

Commodities: A week ago I wrote, “$CRB was losing all week, until Friday’s gain of +1.2 pct, closing the week flat.” This week, the Friday rally was +0.85 pct, leaving $CRB up +0.33 pct W/W. Nobody wants to go home short commodities for the weekend, it seems.

Oil & Gas: Crude oil lifted from 64.38 last Friday to 65.05 this Friday. Maybe we ought to start quoting ICE Brent as the new global benchmark?

Gold: Two weeks ago I wrote, “Metals and precious metals got hammered again this week, but not to worry; help is on the way. On Friday, the cavalry started to climb the hill. This is no Light Brigade.” Just to spite me, the “G” Team managed to smash $GOLD last week to 655.85. But they cannot hold back global buying demand forever. This week $GOLD rallied to 676.90, probably on its way to 700-plus, soon.

Goldminers: A week ago, I told you not to put your trust in the weekly data that stated $XAU had dropped -0.7 pct that week. I said, “Maybe the cycle is bottoming? Do you think? A week ago, Friday, $XAU and GDX lifted +1.3 pct and +2.0 pct respectively. So, over the past six sessions, the goldminers have actually lifted.” YES. This week $XAU lifted a lot more, up +4.9 pct.

Forex: The $USD dropped from 82.36 to 82.32 this week. But the Euro also dropped (from 134.52 to 134.38) and so did the Pound (198.46 to 198.19) as did the Yen (82.16 to 81.92). So what’s up? Was this week just a rush into Canadian Loonies (+1.8 pct) ahead of the gold-filled (+2.3 pct) Stanley Cup? Or was the Yuan also stronger as Madam Wu and Dr Xiao were suggesting? Actually the Yuan was flat this week, and even spiked weaker for a few hours on Thursday, likely to help support the $USD.

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar for next week.

Econoday Weekly International Report.

Econoday report on US Q1 GDP.

Econoday report on May 30 FOMC Minutes of May 9 meeting. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for June 27-28, 2007.

Econoday report on US Consumer Confidence for May.

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Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.

Ten of the ten sector ETF’s I follow here were UP this week. It was a very strong week, largely on the strength of Wednesday afternoon’s rally following release of the FOMC Minutes of the May 9 meeting.

We got back to a normal sector rotation this week. Telco’s (#3 down from #1) were stronger than typical because of M&A deals and rumors, but Energy, Materials and Industrials were performers #1, #2, and #4. The Consumer Discretionary (#6), Staples (#7) and Financials (#8) followed in order with only Semi-conductors (#5) jumping the queue, again on the basis of deal talk and/or pre-deal positioning. Utilities were bumped from #10 to #9 by Healthcare, which dropped because of GlaxoSmithKline again (-10.6 pct over two weeks).

Table 1 is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLB	41.30	0.40	0.98%	3.85%	2.92%	5.76%	19.33%	11.44%	18.95%	27.08%
XLE	68.92	0.77	1.13%	3.25%	3.25%	6.52%	21.81%	21.51%	13.50%	23.73%
IYZ	34.54	0.01	0.03%	2.71%	3.82%	5.92%	16.45%	13.39%	21.32%	35.98%
XLI	39.28	0.15	0.38%	2.64%	2.34%	3.53%	11.50%	11.31%	12.49%	14.55%
SMH	36.98	0.27	0.74%	2.52%	-0.32%	-0.24%	10.16%	8.26%	8.70%	6.82%
XLY	40.33	0.31	0.77%	2.02%	2.46%	2.33%	4.70%	5.96%	7.18%	18.48%
XLP	27.90	0.15	0.54%	2.01%	1.49%	1.82%	6.16%	6.08%	9.28%	16.20%
XLF	38.02	0.15	0.40%	1.33%	0.88%	1.14%	2.98%	5.88%	7.46%	15.00%
XLU	41.61	-0.17	-0.41%	1.29%	-2.32%	-1.33%	13.01%	7.66%	13.32%	29.42%
IYH	72.54	0.22	0.30%	0.54%	1.14%	0.83%	9.15%	9.02%	9.88%	18.26%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

XLE had a terrific week (+3.25 pct), closing at 68.92.

Crude Oil on the NYMEX (WTI) rallied a bit, but the European Brent on ICE was very strong.

CEO +5.6 pct, PBR +4.9 pct, and SU +3.8 pct are indicative of the rush into international oil stocks.

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Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CEO	96.66	2.62	2.79%	5.56%	6.49%	8.75%	2.54%	21.52%	10.44%	26.63%
PBR	111.21	3.05	2.82%	4.90%	4.29%	8.34%	11.59%	24.72%	18.43%	26.00%
SU	88.66	1.48	1.70%	3.84%	2.97%	8.11%	19.96%	26.08%	12.17%	8.43%
ECA	62.37	0.97	1.58%	3.74%	1.09%	13.52%	37.56%	29.16%	17.79%	21.37%
IMO	47.54	0.98	2.10%	3.64%	7.31%	22.84%	33.31%	37.00%	26.17%	27.76%
CVX	82.23	0.74	0.91%	2.83%	0.95%	3.36%	15.87%	21.64%	12.47%	37.10%
XOM	84.22	1.05	1.26%	2.36%	2.96%	4.39%	13.64%	18.64%	9.09%	37.82%
STO	28.18	0.88	3.22%	1.84%	3.49%	-3.59%	9.69%	9.06%	0.97%	-4.25%
TOT	76.06	0.61	0.81%	1.48%	2.63%	0.81%	7.17%	14.69%	7.75%	16.16%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) was the #1 performer this week, gaining +3.85 pct to close at 41.30.

A week ago, I wrote, “Gold keeps getting hammered down(-6.15/oz this week). But that’s the thing with gold. It’s malleable, and recovers quickly. Particularly when inflation and speculation (and therefore interest rates) are on the rise. Somebody asked me why it is that I believe the c.bankers are the culprits in whacking gold. I replied that the World Gold Council data tell you all you need to know. If governments didn’t sell, the price of gold would be through the roof because demand would far exceed the supply.”

This week the European Central Bank stated that gold sales would be put off for several months. Ergo: $GOLD up +15.50 this week.

I also wrote last week, “Speaking of real estate, which many of you are this weekend, we all know that a c.banker is a motivated seller of gold. So what do smart people do when they see a motivated seller selling? The buyers stand aside and let the prices drop. Then they step in and buy more of the stuff. Unlike residential real estate from these levels, I believe we will see a 100 pct to 250 pct move in gold within maybe eight to ten years. And when gold goes higher, OPEC will withhold their oil from the market because why take wooden nickels? These oil producing nations want to get paid either in gold or in higher prices of the depreciating currencies. Then interest rates will soar and all that debt that has been building in the past five years at geometric rates of growth will implode. Creditors will simply be unable to pay their debts. But real estate and gold without encumbrances will always have value. So, what I’m saying is that Basic Materials and Energy are still the places to be for the long-term until govts can figure a way to put a stop to debt expansion that is not linked directly to wealth creation.”

This week gold moved up +2.34 pct and silver +5.69 pct. The big moves in the mid/large cap golds were AEM +11.7 pct, AUY +10.0 pct and GG +9.3 pct.

But the biggest movers in XLB were the steelers and base metals. GGB +14.2 pct, RIO +11.6 pct, TCK +10.4 pct, BHP +8.8 pct, PKX +8.7 pct, NUE +8.4 pct… well, you get the point.

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GGB	23.87	1.13	4.97%	14.16%	8.11%	15.04%	45.37%	41.58%	53.41%	63.49%
RIO	47.02	1.57	3.45%	11.61%	4.58%	9.94%	63.15%	40.36%	70.49%	100.00%
TCK	42.70	0.46	1.09%	10.36%	5.46%	-46.79%	-38.34%	-39.03%	-43.51%	0.00%
MT	63.37	3.38	5.63%	10.36%	9.92%	16.25%	55.32%	21.28%	56.78%	87.49%
BHP	53.94	1.30	2.47%	8.75%	6.54%	7.82%	38.77%	27.52%	31.91%	26.71%
PKX	122.60	3.30	2.77%	8.69%	9.56%	14.15%	54.35%	34.08%	54.68%	86.61%
NUE	69.25	1.71	2.53%	8.36%	5.32%	5.73%	27.06%	13.86%	18.09%	29.73%
TS	49.85	0.20	0.40%	7.74%	9.06%	5.55%	2.74%	11.22%	9.51%	33.61%
RTP	296.34	3.39	1.16%	6.41%	6.58%	16.83%	45.19%	40.11%	38.06%	36.35%
AA	41.46	0.18	0.44%	3.11%	5.90%	18.25%	41.36%	24.69%	34.31%	27.30%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Industrials (XLI) were up +2.64 pct to 39.28 this week. One story was Fedex (FDX), which rallied +5.1 pct. But the rally also took the international industrials higher: Brazil’s Embraer (ERJ +4.5 pct) was flying, and Swiss ABB was up +4.4 pct after gaining +3.0 pct a week ago.

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Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FDX	111.29	-0.33	-0.30%	5.07%	3.79%	1.78%	1.38%	-2.51%	-3.12%	-0.05%
HON	58.80	0.89	1.54%	5.02%	1.00%	5.00%	30.38%	27.30%	37.35%	41.65%
ERJ	48.38	-0.10	-0.21%	4.54%	2.91%	0.06%	18.64%	7.37%	18.93%	39.58%
ABB	21.74	0.27	1.26%	4.37%	8.16%	8.48%	22.00%	31.12%	33.29%	72.81%
UTX	70.78	0.23	0.33%	3.69%	2.03%	4.20%	12.69%	8.69%	10.84%	11.99%
CAT	78.14	-0.44	-0.56%	3.59%	4.41%	6.52%	27.76%	22.28%	27.70%	6.62%
BA	99.83	-0.76	-0.76%	2.47%	3.14%	6.37%	11.95%	13.64%	11.48%	19.36%
MMM	88.43	0.47	0.53%	1.47%	2.03%	5.19%	13.00%	20.05%	10.57%	4.64%
GE	37.45	-0.13	-0.35%	0.19%	2.52%	0.29%	-1.37%	7.00%	6.15%	8.39%

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) gained +2.02 pct W/W to close at 40.33.

Apparently We the People have both jobs and money to spend.

Econoday report on US Jobs.

Econoday report on US Personal Income and Outlays.

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NKE	56.69	-0.06	-0.11%	4.08%	7.06%	6.40%	16.10%	7.67%	16.17%	39.25%
JCP	81.99	1.51	1.88%	3.96%	2.82%	3.54%	5.03%	2.55%	7.42%	26.55%
SBUX	29.13	0.32	1.11%	2.90%	2.32%	-7.87%	-17.36%	-4.15%	-16.98%	-19.55%
TM	122.94	2.18	1.81%	2.18%	1.19%	2.11%	-9.14%	-6.35%	2.45%	13.16%
BC	34.80	0.37	1.07%	1.96%	2.75%	5.65%	9.02%	6.19%	9.95%	-3.76%
CCL	50.54	0.10	0.20%	1.96%	6.49%	4.96%	-0.80%	9.66%	7.33%	26.00%
WHR	111.39	-0.26	-0.23%	0.19%	-1.55%	-1.27%	31.57%	26.06%	31.59%	23.42%
EBAY	32.27	-0.29	-0.89%	-1.35%	-2.15%	-6.79%	6.96%	1.06%	2.90%	-2.45%
DIS	35.24	-0.20	-0.56%	-1.67%	-2.08%	-1.26%	3.04%	2.47%	6.50%	15.09%

NKE (+4.1 pct) keeps running. And the upscale market keeps JC Penny (JCP) rolling (4.0 pct).

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +2.01 pct W/W to close at $27.90.

Wal-Mart had quite a month on Friday (+3.9 pct), ending the week up +6.1 pct.

ABV did them one better. Friday’s gain was +4.3 pct, making it +8.8 pct W/W.

No, these are not TSX.V penny stocks.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	70.71	2.91	4.29%	8.83%	7.51%	13.63%	44.01%	43.34%	53.72%	65.17%
WMT	49.47	1.87	3.93%	6.05%	5.01%	2.30%	4.04%	3.30%	7.85%	2.23%
BUD	54.01	0.67	1.26%	5.32%	8.72%	7.38%	9.73%	10.18%	13.39%	17.44%
KO	52.80	-0.19	-0.36%	3.04%	1.15%	-0.21%	8.69%	13.50%	13.38%	20.22%
WFMI	41.67	0.57	1.39%	2.91%	5.41%	-8.03%	-8.38%	-11.25%	-13.33%	-36.86%
MO	71.82	0.72	1.01%	1.92%	3.04%	2.94%	10.63%	13.46%	13.93%	32.17%
WAG	45.13	0.00	0.00%	1.21%	-0.46%	1.30%	-2.04%	1.12%	12.07%	11.16%
DEO	86.02	0.63	0.74%	1.01%	2.16%	1.05%	8.16%	10.28%	10.78%	28.70%
PG	63.48	-0.07	-0.11%	0.97%	0.17%	2.39%	-1.64%	-0.31%	1.26%	16.52%
PEP	68.70	0.37	0.54%	0.37%	0.31%	2.07%	9.53%	8.31%	10.88%	12.44%

Last week I wrote, “A week ago, Companhia de Bebidas Das Americas (AMBEV) (ABV) rocketed to $67.42. This week it lost almost -$2.00. Yes, Brazil’s AmBev (ABV) had really been on a rip -- up +10.7 pct a week ago. Since it’s a beer company, I suggested we might refer to it as a rip roaring drunk. No moderation there.”

Yes, as I wrote earlier, ABV rocketed +8.8 pct this week. Moderation needed.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The IYH healthcare ETF was up +0.54 pct W/W, after being up +0.30 pct on Friday, to close at 72.54.

Last week I wrote, “A week ago, Friday (+0.73 pct) was a also good day, just like the Friday before that. Hmmm.” Are we seeing a pattern here, or is the market truly a Random Walk? (LOL)

Btw, the prof who wrote that piece of comedy was once a senior advisor to the US Admin. I’ll bet he had the White House in stitches.

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AMGN	56.94	0.49	0.87%	4.34%	6.07%	-10.91%	-16.75%	-7.70%	-17.86%	-17.23%
AET	53.27	0.34	0.64%	3.24%	1.35%	10.70%	24.23%	18.77%	28.86%	32.81%
DNA	79.50	-0.27	-0.34%	2.40%	2.63%	-2.51%	-2.81%	-4.89%	-3.88%	-3.76%
UNH	55.21	0.44	0.80%	1.84%	2.91%	3.80%	5.02%	4.68%	13.07%	20.76%
BMY	30.48	0.17	0.56%	1.50%	0.89%	3.89%	15.54%	14.41%	22.71%	21.19%
PFE	27.68	0.19	0.69%	1.47%	1.17%	3.01%	5.29%	10.54%	-0.65%	15.82%
BMET	43.93	0.31	0.71%	0.71%	1.10%	1.27%	5.93%	3.78%	15.85%	22.74%
NVS	56.32	0.14	0.25%	0.43%	-1.49%	-2.95%	-3.13%	2.21%	-2.61%	1.22%
JNJ	63.41	0.14	0.22%	-0.11%	1.07%	-1.41%	-4.50%	1.54%	-3.88%	4.55%
GSK	51.28	-0.90	-1.72%	-2.49%	-10.58%	-10.72%	-4.70%	-8.22%	-4.56%	-8.40%

The story remains GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Amgen (AMGN). Merck (MRK) dropped -3.0 pct, which was the worst performance this week in the Dow 30 by far. Even Disney’s Pirates could only steal -1.67 pct.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) gained +1.33 pct to close at 38.02, which was 8th best performer out of 10 again this week.

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Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UBS	65.04	-0.20	-0.31%	2.90%	2.51%	2.54%	5.95%	10.71%	9.37%	13.13%
CS	76.60	0.67	0.88%	2.71%	1.44%	-1.26%	9.26%	9.88%	15.07%	0.00%
LEH	75.23	1.85	2.52%	2.66%	3.14%	-0.56%	-4.32%	2.72%	2.56%	11.42%
GS	230.71	-0.11	-0.05%	2.23%	1.46%	4.13%	14.94%	15.55%	18.62%	50.25%
MS	86.07	1.03	1.21%	1.91%	2.26%	0.93%	5.45%	14.62%	14.35%	42.08%
MER	93.30	0.57	0.61%	0.75%	1.19%	1.11%	-0.33%	11.42%	7.51%	28.51%
HBC	93.20	0.16	0.17%	0.73%	-0.11%	-1.23%	0.25%	7.25%	0.50%	6.62%
JPM	51.90	0.07	0.14%	0.60%	-1.26%	-1.52%	7.97%	5.49%	12.80%	19.09%
C	54.51	0.02	0.04%	-0.76%	-0.53%	1.04%	-1.34%	6.71%	10.39%	9.39%
DB	152.34	0.24	0.16%	-1.19%	-2.32%	-1.44%	12.56%	16.72%	18.15%	30.62%

Swiss bankers UBS (+2.9 pct) and CS (+2.7 pct) were my winners. The Germans (DB -1.2 pct) didn’t fare so well.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The Semiconductors (SMH) gained +2.52 pct W/W to close at 36.98.

Software was very strong with ORCL +4.9 pct and SAP +4.2 pct leading the way. CSCO gained +5.8 pct and ADBE was up +6.1 pct.

Adobe has put together a string of nice weeks.

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Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ADBE	44.53	0.47	1.07%	6.05%	4.97%	8.08%	11.55%	13.42%	13.63%	55.05%
CSCO	26.86	-0.06	-0.22%	5.75%	2.21%	-3.03%	-3.17%	3.91%	0.90%	31.02%
ORCL	19.66	0.28	1.44%	4.85%	3.20%	3.36%	12.28%	17.23%	4.69%	38.26%
CTSH	78.11	-0.45	-0.57%	4.23%	1.68%	-7.16%	0.45%	-12.60%	-2.14%	25.88%
SAP	49.05	1.31	2.74%	4.16%	6.70%	2.96%	-7.80%	3.22%	-4.57%	-8.45%
INFY	49.79	0.54	1.10%	2.53%	-2.62%	-7.35%	-10.80%	-8.37%	-6.04%	39.78%
INTC	22.36	0.18	0.81%	1.78%	0.58%	2.85%	9.88%	14.20%	7.19%	23.95%
SNDK	42.54	-1.01	-2.32%	1.29%	-3.47%	-2.83%	1.97%	14.94%	-4.55%	-22.98%
ADSK	44.90	-0.55	-1.21%	0.36%	3.70%	8.11%	10.70%	11.36%	9.91%	19.54%
QCOM	42.77	-0.18	-0.42%	-1.88%	-4.57%	-3.41%	14.18%	6.66%	17.95%	-9.10%

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) gained +2.71 pct W/W to close at 34.54, which was done in three days as Monday was a holiday and Friday was flat.

The biggest of the Big Bells, T (+0.3 pct W/W but -2.0 pct on Friday) and VZ (+1.1 pct W/W but -1.2 pct on Friday) did not lead the way again this week.

This Telco sector story is all about M&A within a relatively few companies, many of which you and I would consider to be dogs but which Humungous Private Equity Corp wants to control for a while.

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

A week ago, I wrote: “Time Warner Telecom (TWTC +3.61 pct), BCE (BCE +2.75 pct), Cincinnati Bell (CBB +2.66 pct), and Qwest Communications (Q +1.42 pct) all kept the full-court press on for the Gnomes and HB&B.”

This week’s scorecard reads: TWTC +5.01 pct, BCE +2.27 pct, and CBB +2.94 pct)… just in case you are watching.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) had a loss of -0.41 pct on Friday, to close at 41.61, up +1.29 pct W/W.

A very few are pulling up the rest.

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Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

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A week ago I wrote, “Did you see how M&A story-laden WMB was trying to hold the fort while the Gnomes were dumping piles of the other stuff. You need to stick to quality companies. Very very few in this group. And if you are there for the dividend yield, think also about the concept “Total Return”. Getting whacked doesn’t do much for your TR.”

This week WMB gained +3.4 pct. For some reason it has a PE close to 60. Williams Companies, last time I looked, was not into rocket science.

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Bonds & Yields Review

The US Bond market dropped again this week. Broken record.

Ah, but at least there is now an upward sloping yield curve. The rally in yields of +6 to +9 bp, when combined with the changes of a week ago, amount to the same horror show (+11 bp to +15 bp lift) of two weeks ago.

For the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds, the yields gained +6, +9, +13, and +12 basis points (bp). You can add that to the rally in yields of a week ago (+4, +6, +6, and +3 bp) and the one the week before that (+11, +13, +15, and +11 bp) and you can see why the Bond Bulls are screaming mad at their sales people. The yields are now respectively 5.04 pct, 4.93 pct, 4.90 pct and 4.95 pct.

I recall how I wrote in these pages that the Bond King Bill Gross was telling his flock via CNBC that a 4.50 pct yield on the 10-year would look mighty good for a long time.

You didn’t know Gross was a rapper. Good is bad, I guess. All I know is that the Bond Bull has been castrated.

The spread between the 2-year and 3-month Treasuries is now +33 bp, up from +12 bp in a week. It’s now +42 bp between the 30-year T-Bond and the short T-Bill, up from +27 a week ago and +6 five weeks ago.

The slope is looking better as the capex story strengthens, but the threat is elsewhere now. The whole curve is rising.

The TLT continues to get hammered, dropping -1.13 pct W/W, including -0.91 pct on Friday, to close at 85.59.

TLT was at almost 92 at year-end 2006, so long bond investors (ie, those who hold to maturity) have taken a serious beating this past few months. Some hedgies must be in tough!

I keep writing that same paragraph every week. It can get worse. But, I do admit, the charts are getting close to the Accumulation Zone.

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Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Interactive Daily data charts:

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US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.62	4.55	4.71	4.73
6 Month	4.75	4.73	4.74	4.79
2 Year	4.95	4.89	4.83	4.62
3 Year	4.91	4.85	4.78	4.55
5 Year	4.90	4.83	4.77	4.53
10 Year	4.93	4.87	4.84	4.62
30 Year	5.04	4.99	4.98	4.80

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.67	3.63	3.66	3.65
2yr AAA	3.66	3.60	3.61	3.57
2yr A	3.66	3.65	3.65	3.61
5yr AAA	3.74	3.69	3.69	3.57
5yr AA	3.77	3.71	3.67	3.58
5yr A	3.76	3.74	3.74	3.71
10yr AAA	3.86	3.84	3.83	3.72
10yr AA	3.86	3.83	3.80	3.69
10yr A	4.14	4.11	4.10	3.99
20yr AAA	4.42	4.40	4.38	4.33
20yr AA	4.42	4.31	4.29	4.52
20yr A	4.29	4.18	4.27	4.22

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.31	5.26	5.19	5.00
2yr A	5.38	5.34	5.28	5.07
5yr AAA	5.40	5.35	5.29	5.03
5yr AA	5.47	5.40	5.32	5.10
5yr A	5.52	5.46	5.41	5.12
10yr AAA	5.71	5.68	5.79	5.27
10yr AA	5.68	5.62	5.58	5.36
10yr A	5.74	5.71	5.71	5.48
20yr AAA	6.01	5.93	5.97	5.77
20yr AA	5.98	5.93	5.92	5.75
20yr A	6.15	6.07	6.11	5.91

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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I suspect there will be a return of the Bond Bulls this year. The Relative Strength Index RSI-7 on the Monthly data series is getting down close to 30 (and the yields are over 70). This is the time when it pays to consider switching to bonds as an asset class that might outperform equities.

My thinking is that Bonds have a bit more work on the downside. The downside, however, is limited because yields can rise only so high in the US before America shuts down. In most cycles, those yields would be much higher, but this time around many of those jobs are not the highest paying ones. I think there are many PhD’s working minimal jobs to help ends meet and to get some health insurance coverage.

In any event, the economic problems the Administration does not want to address are widespread. Higher energy, food and mortgage costs will break the budget of many Americans this time around.

So we are in kind of a transitioning phase where bonds will become more attractive than stocks for a while. After stocks start to fall, the Fed will drop the interest rates and bonds will start to rally. But the momentum of falling stock prices will linger, and that is the time it will pay to be out of stocks and into bonds.

Then at the bottom of the long cycle for stock prices, it will be an appropriate time to switch back from bonds and into equities.

Traders who don’t review all these charts every week cannot get a feel for the price motion. You will have an even more difficult time to make such decisions.

For sure some CNBC talking head is not going to tell you what to do.

Now, if you go to the Weekly data charts below, you will see that for three weeks, US Bonds have been hammered. The Fed is in a pickle here. They have to tighten up because they fear the metals and oil (and gold of course) might soar. But they can’t tighten too much.

So, the gold players have been watching, watching, watching… and waiting to pounce. The moment those bond prices rebound (and yields come down), traders’ fingers will be all over the Gold buy button as well as the Bonds buy button.

Now this is where it gets tricky. As the gold price rallies above 700, 720, 740… the Fed has to step back in and tighten again (ie, raise the bond yields by selling bonds back to HB&B, which by the rules has to use their dollars (otherwise set aside for speculation) to buy those ugly bonds. That also removes HB&B as bond buyers in the open market, which means then that both bonds and gold will pull back a bit.

This is the dance I talk about. The motion is back and forth. Bullish, bearish, bullish, bearish. Once you catch on to the phenomenon, it’s like breathing. Occasionally, you get punched in the stomach by some market interventionist, which makes you scream, but after a while you start to play the game like Rocky. I’m already up to Rocky forty-something (LOL).

If you happen to be managing $10 billion, or more, it is not a fun game. But if you happen to be one of the Little People who has a clue, the whole business of personal wealth management can be as intellectually satisfying as pretty much anything.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FRE	67.09	0.30	0.45%	1.07%	-0.13%	0.60%	-1.18%	5.67%	0.24%	10.60%
SHY	79.74	-0.33	-0.41%	-0.44%	-0.47%	-0.41%	-0.37%	-0.60%	-0.71%	0.18%
FNM	64.37	0.45	0.70%	-0.59%	2.19%	5.35%	7.53%	14.05%	13.27%	25.14%
AGG	98.63	-0.59	-0.59%	-0.78%	-1.11%	-1.31%	-1.28%	-1.80%	-2.21%	1.14%
TIP	98.85	-0.78	-0.78%	-0.79%	-1.08%	-1.82%	-0.38%	-1.99%	-2.56%	-0.37%
IEF	81.12	-0.68	-0.83%	-1.09%	-1.58%	-1.99%	-1.89%	-2.63%	-3.36%	1.06%
TLT	85.59	-0.79	-0.91%	-1.13%	-2.19%	-3.00%	-3.91%	-4.62%	-6.38%	2.25%
CFC	38.90	-0.04	-0.10%	-2.75%	-5.83%	3.10%	-7.62%	3.90%	-2.68%	-1.54%

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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I have been pondering starting a Fixed Income component to this WIR, and maybe an inexpensive premium report. I recognize that many of you are not day traders, or even stock traders. You have most of your investable assets in real estate and marketable fixed-income securities. I cannot help re the real estate investing, but maybe I can come up with a Cara 100 for high income. I’ll be meeting somebody on Monday who might help.

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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A week ago, Friday, $CRB closed at 313.10. But there was a rally that day (+1.18 pct), and this week the rally continued (+0.33 pct W/W) after Friday (+0.85 pct) to close at 314.12.

$CRB is above the 50-day MA (312.66) and 200-day MA (309.24) lines, so that’s where the technical support lies.

Despite down trending lines, I have been saying, “The $CRB trend lines appear to be reversing course, with the 50-Day MA crossing up through the 200-Day MA. That’s good for the Commodity Bulls who have been hoping for higher commodity prices and some renewed $USD weakness.“

I have been thinking that the recent cycle high for $CRB of 316.77 for the Daily and 319.11 for the Weekly data series will likely be taken out in June. In fact, I think we’ll see a rally past November’s high of 322.56 before the end of July.

I do not believe the Commodity Bull is dead. I simply think that too much capital flowed out of commodities since March 2006 and into equities, particularly equities in commodity-rich countries like Brazil, Russia, Canada, Australia and the like. But those share prices are now very dear, and it might be the case where traders switch back to the underlying commodities at this point, especially as the broad equity market has had such a huge run up.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

A week ago I wrote, “$WTIC conveniently lost -1.60/bbl (-2.42 pct) to close at 64.38.” The operative word was ‘conveniently’. Does anybody trust the NYMEX Crude Oil price anymore?

The US Administration, I believe, has so screwed with the US oil inventory data and with their purchases for so-called Strategic Petroleum Reserves that the WTI price is now just a number at the end of the Administration’s chain. How pathetic is that?

Earlier this year, I questioned why European Brent was trading at a high premium on the InterContinental Exchange (ICE). Usually Brent trades at a discount of about $1, or possibly a little more, due to the extra costs to ship oil from the Middle East and Nigeria to the US versus Europe.

Because of the continuous arbitrage that exists between Brent and ICE, the spread ought to be narrow. However, the spread is now a premium and that premium is $4 to $5, which is ridiculous.

But that’s what happens when interventionists attack the free capital market with impugnity – in the interests of government policy. Big Brother 2007.

This is not just a situation caused by the US Administration. Strategic Petroleum Reserves exist in Europe too. When the EU Administration wants to depress the Euro, why not buy more Brent? Why not sell gold to buy Brent?

Independent traders ought to be fed up by now.

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Here is a chart of the spread between Brent (ICE) and WTI (NYMEX), which is a contract traded as BY. The spread is currently the widest in history.

You might wish to read up on the tiny town of Cushing OK. Wiki attributes the “low” oil price to the shutdown of a Valero (VLO) refinery. My chart tells me Valero doesn’t need any help solving problems.

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In any case, the $WTIC price is now 65.08, up from last Friday’s 64.38 (but down over 5 days by -0.12).

The $WTIC 50-Day Moving Average (from StockCharts) is now 64.33 and the 200-Day MA is 61.84. Hence the current price (65.08) is sitting atop technical support.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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The e-miNY June-07 Crude Oil contracts were weak from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday noon, but closed strongly.

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

A week ago I wrote, “$GOLD was hammered down further this week, -6.15 (-0.93 pct) to 655.85. As I say, “It seems to have found a friend in the 200-day MA though.” For $GOLD, the 50-day MA is now at 674.45 and the more important 200-day MA is at 638.35. “So while a plunging $GOLD dropped through the 50-day MA, which is a bearish sign, there is hope yet.” I wrote that a week ago, but my hopes are still alive. I really do not see a primary trend reversal in the gold Bull market. “

June Gold on NYMEX had a recovery at the end of the week, ie, from Thursday morning (ET) on through Friday.

Much like the previous week.

$GOLD closed at 676.90, up 15.50 (+2.34 pct) W/W. The 50-day MA is 675.34 and the 200-day MA is 639.14, so the current price is once again bullish.

The 698.00 cycle high on the Weekly data is the next to go, and after that the 730.40 cycle high of May 2006 will be next, I feel. I think that price will be challenged in July.

Early in January I thought it would be within 100 days from then. It did reach 698 from 606, but was knocked down by c.bankers selling gold.

Spot gold chart for the week

From Wednesday noon (ET) at about 652, spot Gold rallied to close to 671 at the Friday close.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER gained +5.69 pct W/W to close at 13.74, which was a gain of +0.74.

The 50-day MA is 13.49 and the 200-day MA at 12.93, so the current price at 13.74 is back in its technically Bullish long-term pattern.

I think the 14.22 previous cycle high price of the Daily data series will be taken out in June and then the Feb cycle high of 14.885 is next, probably July.

And that my friends is new high ground for many many years. The last melt-up didn’t reach the blow-off point until Silver hit $50. I’m not suggesting that this time around, but who really knows.

The one thing I do know is that no professional trader worth his/her salt ever sets price targets for a trade. For research purposes is a different matter. But, trading prices is not research. And it is not telling stories, either.

Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive 60-minute data

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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A week ago, I wrote, “This week, the $PLAT Bears won another round, taking -37.70 out of the contract (-2.84 pct) to close at 1290.00. I’m noticing a hedge now between Platinum and other PM’s. The 50-day MA is 1291.23 and the 200-day MA is 1202.03, so the current 1290 price is marginally underwater re the 50-day MA. The $PLAT Bulls are hoping this line holds.”

It held. $PLAT closed up +19.20 (+1.50 pct W/W) at 1299.40. That was a nice move from Tuesday noon (ET).

The 50-day MA is 1294.76 and the 200-day MA is 1202.40, so the current 1299.40 price is once again bullish.

I think the 1354.20 cycle high price for Platinum that was set in early May will be taken out before August. The PM Bull is running.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL has been bullish since early October (290.88). It was again this week.

This week, $PALL gained +4.81 (+1.30 pct) to close at 375.89. The 50-day MA is 370.77 and the 200-day MA is 343.62.

A week ago I wrote, “The 50-day MA support appears to be holding.” It did hold. Higher prices ahead, I believe for all the PM group.

How much higher is an interesting discussion, but not too important.

For interest sake, I think the 390.45 cycle high of April will be taken out in June and possibly the 410.89 cycle high of May 2006 will be surpassed before August. Yes, the PM Bull is running.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER rallied +8.45 (+2.54 pct W/W) to close at 340.50.

The 50-day MA is 344.17 and the 200-day MA is 316.19, so there is technical support at this level and the price appears to have returned to rally mode.

As I wrote in this space two weeks ago, when the price was getting hammered, “That is quite a Sell button somebody owns. Yes, I hear China doesn’t need more copper. (NOT!)”

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AEM	37.88	1.52	4.18%	11.74%	10.12%	5.08%	-2.67%	-0.99%	-12.80%	12.77%
AUY	14.02	0.57	4.24%	9.96%	5.10%	-1.89%	13.71%	-0.85%	9.11%	40.76%
GG	24.57	0.48	1.99%	9.25%	6.13%	-0.65%	-10.13%	-5.93%	-19.86%	-18.40%
MDG	26.69	1.04	4.05%	8.01%	7.45%	2.77%	1.52%	-1.04%	-11.89%	-14.97%
BVN	34.40	0.87	2.59%	7.77%	5.42%	1.15%	24.59%	26.28%	21.64%	29.57%
KGC	13.65	0.31	2.32%	6.81%	5.90%	-2.22%	19.53%	1.26%	9.99%	24.09%
NEM	41.61	0.93	2.29%	5.48%	6.50%	-0.69%	-5.86%	-6.56%	-11.17%	-19.47%
ABX	29.43	0.30	1.03%	1.48%	-0.07%	-2.97%	-1.34%	0.55%	-5.67%	-3.92%
GFI	17.49	0.17	0.98%	1.39%	2.88%	-3.90%	-4.58%	2.40%	-8.09%	-17.89%
LIHRY	40.75	0.34	0.84%	0.02%	-10.54%	-7.20%	23.37%	0.00%	0.00%	2.77%

This week $XAU gained +6.62 (+4.87 pct W/W) to close at 142.42. The 50-day MA (140.02) and 200-day MA (137.70) are now below the current price, which is bullish.

When the indicators were bearish “any way you look at it”, I was writing, “But I am a Bear for punishment. Ahh yes, I still await the Summer Rally. I mistakenly thought I saw it starting two weeks ago Friday. But, then came the c.bankers to the G-8, followed by Madam Wu with promises of spending billions in America. What a marvelous spark to the $USD. It almost has a Rocky 99 element to it. Sly, where are you? Miners, as I say, are hard rock people. No weak-willed c.banker is going to convince them that $USD are more valuable. Now, you miners, if you look at the ground carefully, you will see that in the past six sessions $XAU has actually lifted (more than my spirits).”

Ah, silver has been floating like a butterfly, stinging like a bee. I wouldn’t want to be short. I hear Fleck has an army.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The $USD closed at 82.32, a loss of -0.04 (-0.05 pct W/W).

The $USD 50-Day MA is now 82.26, and the 200-Day MA is 84.17, so the current price (82.32) is technically bullish.

That’s what happened “after four straight weeks of gains with all these c.banker threats and announcements.”

Here is the chart of the end of the week trading. Some spikes up and down, but in the end not much movement.

The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week.

M3 continues to grow at an excessive rate.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro (priced in USD) had another losing week, going down -0.10 pct W/W, closing Friday at 134.38. The whole loss happened on Friday.

The $XEU 50-Day MA is 134.88, and the 200-Day MA is 130.71, so the current price (134.52) is bullish, but barely. Its trying to hang at the 50-day MA support level.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The British Pound lost -0.27 (-0.14 pct W/W) to close at 198.19.

The $XBP 50-Day MA is 198.28, and the 200-Day MA is 193.82, so the current price (198.19) is right at the 50-day MA.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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The Japanese Yen $XJY lost -0.29 pct, closing at 81.92. The loss on Friday was -0.23 pct. I continue to believe the Yen weakness “underlies my concern for the Japanese equity market.”

The 50-Day MA is 83.58, and the 200-Day MA is 84.35, so the current price (81.92) is “extremely bearish, and in need of help. Is the exporting industry there that bad off? I continue to say, “this is a function, I think, of the Japanese Administration and central bank trying to help domestic exporters (but) I also think that it could be that the carry trade will be coming to a close soon as the BoJ may start to raise rates. Something to consider as the end of the carry trade will mean a big negative for global stock prices, I think. Maybe the Carry Trade unwinding process doesn’t start until 3Q?” But that’s just a few weeks away? And we are late, not early, in the game.”

Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar $CDW had yet another monster week, gaining +1.76 pct to close at 94.19, up from 92.56.

I wrote a week ago, “If only this was an economy-based success. NOT! This reaching for parity with the $USD has a lot to do with foreigners buying IMO, AA, and the like.” Now I’m not so sure. Stocks are going crazy and (unlike the US) Johnny Canuck has plenty of Loonies to buy new cars.

The $CDW 50-Day MA is 89.41, and the 200-Day MA is 87.81, so the current price (94.19) is technically so bullish you could call it a “white hot” Dollar.

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International Equities Review

A week ago I wrote, “Some interesting observations. We all know that the USD-denominated and HB&B-traded foreign country ETF’s are not identical to the foreign country stock exchange indexes, right? But, you’d think they might be moving in the same direction. NOT always. This week, the Toronto Exchange Composite Index dropped from 14105.34 to 14024.07, but the EWC increased from 29.69 to 29.80. Could the holiday period have affected that? Well the Chinese FXI dropped from 114.84 to 112.08 while the Shanghai Composite rallied from 4030.26 to 4179.78. So, I don’t know. Maybe somebody has a better perspective.”

I’ve been watching this.

This week, the USD-denominated EWC was up +2.21 pct W/W. The TSX Composite Index in $CAD rallied +0.68 pct. The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) gained +1.76 pct.

Asia-Pacific indices (Interactive link)

Here’s how the week closed for the Asia-Pacific markets.

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European indices (Interactive link)

Here’s how the week closed for the bourses of Europe.

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Americas indices (Interactive link)

Here’s how the week closed for the Americas markets.

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Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWZ	61.20	1.94	3.27%	9.05%	5.97%	12.29%	31.05%	34.71%	39.34%	58.96%
IFN	43.30	0.01	0.02%	4.67%	3.24%	3.10%	-4.50%	11.60%	-8.92%	-11.18%
FXI	114.52	2.17	1.93%	4.13%	-0.91%	4.63%	-1.62%	18.48%	21.64%	54.78%
EWC	30.46	0.36	1.20%	3.43%	3.57%	8.09%	23.32%	20.68%	18.85%	25.35%
QQQQ	47.44	0.03	0.06%	2.77%	2.40%	1.82%	9.71%	9.97%	9.08%	19.38%
IEV	118.45	0.87	0.74%	2.47%	2.29%	2.60%	12.17%	14.53%	14.42%	29.58%
EWJ	14.68	0.05	0.34%	2.44%	2.73%	2.09%	3.38%	-0.07%	6.15%	4.41%
SPY	154.08	0.68	0.44%	1.95%	1.84%	2.48%	8.99%	9.66%	9.88%	19.69%
EWU	25.61	0.23	0.91%	1.83%	1.51%	1.75%	8.75%	11.88%	8.89%	22.42%
TRF	66.45	-2.30	-3.35%	1.36%	-1.31%	-5.07%	-24.96%	-3.56%	-16.16%	-9.52%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan’s EWJ (which is a USD-denominated NYSE-traded ETF) gained +2.59 pct W/W to close at 14.68.

The Nikkei 225 closed at 17,958.88, up +2.73 pct W/W from 17,481.2. The Yen lost -0.29 pct W/W.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The EWU (UK market ETF trading in the US in USD) gained +1.11 pct, including a gain on Friday of +0.91 pct to close at 25.61.

The FTSE gained +1.62 pct from 6570.50 to close at 6676.70. The Pound lost -0.14 pct.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

EWC (priced in USD) gained +2.21 pct on the week to close at 30.46, including a gain on Friday of +1.20 pct.

As I say, the Beaver never had it so good.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The broad US market indexes enjoyed a good holiday week. In fact, the NASDAQ jumped all the way from 2557 to 2614. There was a two-hour flourish on Wednesday afternoon that put a lot of the zip in the numbers. At the end week, the NASDAQ was up +2.2 pct, the S&P 500 up +1.4 pct, the DJIA up +1.2 pct and the Russell small cap 2000 up +2.8 pct.

Those four days made for a pretty good month. At the end of the week, the NASDAQ was up +2.2 pct, the S&P 500 up +1.4 pct, the DJIA up +1.2 pct and the Russell small cap 2000 up +2.8 pct.

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Dow 30 : The DJIA moved from 13,507 to 13,668. Lots of movement here, but I expect the broad market to sidetrack through the Summer. I think the FOMC story is going to get stale as interest rates rise, and drivers shun the fuel pumps this summer.

But, I have to admit, I am not, like Paulson, calling the shots.

DJIA (interactive) chart

A dozen NYSE DJIA stocks to watch.

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

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A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WMT	49.47	1.87	3.93%	6.05%	5.01%	2.30%	4.04%	3.30%	7.85%	2.23%
HON	58.80	0.89	1.54%	5.02%	1.00%	5.00%	30.38%	27.30%	37.35%	41.65%
UTX	70.78	0.23	0.33%	3.69%	2.03%	4.20%	12.69%	8.69%	10.84%	11.99%
CAT	78.14	-0.44	-0.56%	3.59%	4.41%	6.52%	27.76%	22.28%	27.70%	6.62%
DD	53.10	0.78	1.49%	3.43%	2.29%	4.36%	8.28%	4.38%	14.32%	23.89%
AA	41.46	0.18	0.44%	3.11%	5.90%	18.25%	41.36%	24.69%	34.31%	27.30%
KO	52.80	-0.19	-0.36%	3.04%	1.15%	-0.21%	8.69%	13.50%	13.38%	20.22%
IBM	106.54	-0.06	-0.06%	2.49%	1.17%	3.64%	9.53%	15.47%	16.76%	32.04%
BA	99.83	-0.76	-0.76%	2.47%	3.14%	6.37%	11.95%	13.64%	11.48%	19.36%
XOM	84.22	1.05	1.26%	2.36%	2.96%	4.39%	13.64%	18.64%	9.09%	37.82%
MO	71.82	0.72	1.01%	1.92%	3.04%	2.94%	10.63%	13.46%	13.93%	32.17%
INTC	22.36	0.18	0.81%	1.78%	0.58%	2.85%	9.88%	14.20%	7.19%	23.95%
AXP	65.07	0.09	0.14%	1.64%	2.38%	2.54%	7.80%	15.07%	11.14%	18.78%
AIG	72.65	0.31	0.43%	1.55%	0.62%	2.83%	0.69%	7.77%	4.13%	18.77%
MMM	88.43	0.47	0.53%	1.47%	2.03%	5.19%	13.00%	20.05%	10.57%	4.64%
PFE	27.68	0.19	0.69%	1.47%	1.17%	3.01%	5.29%	10.54%	-0.65%	15.82%
MSFT	30.59	-0.10	-0.33%	1.39%	-1.26%	-1.23%	2.44%	8.90%	5.12%	34.05%
VZ	43.01	-0.52	-1.19%	1.10%	2.06%	4.72%	13.72%	15.93%	24.16%	34.57%
PG	63.48	-0.07	-0.11%	0.97%	0.17%	2.39%	-1.64%	-0.31%	1.26%	16.52%
HPQ	45.81	0.10	0.22%	0.90%	2.09%	6.96%	10.07%	17.67%	16.15%	41.26%
HD	39.21	0.34	0.87%	0.67%	2.38%	0.38%	-4.53%	-0.61%	0.85%	1.71%
JPM	51.90	0.07	0.14%	0.60%	-1.26%	-1.52%	7.97%	5.49%	12.80%	19.09%
T	40.53	-0.81	-1.96%	0.27%	-1.77%	4.19%	15.97%	10.41%	19.21%	50.61%
GE	37.45	-0.13	-0.35%	0.19%	2.52%	0.29%	-1.37%	7.00%	6.15%	8.39%
GM	30.50	0.51	1.70%	0.10%	-3.45%	-0.62%	3.57%	-3.30%	2.73%	13.38%
MCD	50.95	0.40	0.79%	-0.02%	-2.51%	2.08%	16.14%	15.53%	21.08%	51.28%
JNJ	63.41	0.14	0.22%	-0.11%	1.07%	-1.41%	-4.50%	1.54%	-3.88%	4.55%
C	54.51	0.02	0.04%	-0.76%	-0.53%	1.04%	-1.34%	6.71%	10.39%	9.39%
DIS	35.24	-0.20	-0.56%	-1.67%	-2.08%	-1.26%	3.04%	2.47%	6.50%	15.09%
MRK	52.14	-0.31	-0.59%	-3.00%	-0.61%	1.14%	18.45%	18.53%	15.71%	54.26%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Dow 30 Report(s) published on Friday

General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]

(GM: Value Line Report Jun. 1)

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Johnson and Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]

(JNJ: Value Line Report Jun. 1) Note that JNJ is the stock of a Cara 100 company.

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Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report May. 4: next one is due Aug. 3)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 30: next one is due Jun. 29)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 23: next one is due Jun. 22)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May. 4: next one is due Aug. 3)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 16: next one is due Jun. 15)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Apr. 6: next one is due Jul. 6)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Jun. 1: next one is due Aug. 31)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 9: next one is due Jun. 8)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 18: next one is due Aug. 17)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 25: next one is due Aug. 24)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Apr. 6: next one is due Jul. 6)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 30: next one is due Jun. 29)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 11: next one is due Aug 10)

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Wrap up:

I find it interesting how traders of stock prices can dismiss the fundamental, technical and economic data today in favor of a highly subjective bully pulpit report from the FOMC in order to gather enthusiasm to bid prices even higher.

There is no question that the market is going higher. On Friday this week, seventeen of the Cara Global Best 100 companies had share prices that set intra-day 52-week highs.

Good traders accept that and go with it. That doesn’t mean to say they believe the rally is a sustainable trend. It just means we have a trending market where elevated risks must be dealt with.

In a rising market, we do that by moving up the stops and, after extreme moves, buying puts and writing calls, to hedge against portfolio losses. If our stock is called away at extreme prices on the upside, we should not be concerned to go to cash. There is nothing wrong with holding cash for relatively short periods, say one to two years. Very seldom over 40 years have I experienced periods in the market where cash would constitute the major portfolio holding for longer than one year.

On the other hand, in a falling market, after extreme moves, we buy calls and write puts. If stock is put to us at extreme prices on the downside, we will enjoy the comfort of knowing that our cost base is lower than that of 99 pct or more of active traders.

At the end of the day, if we stick with long positions in the shares of quality companies, adding to these share positions when the prices cycle through the bottom of a bear phase, we will enjoy a solid portfolio growth.

And when we speculate about the activities of central bankers, gnomes and politicians, what we are doing is assessing risk to our wealth preservation and growth plans.

There are people out there who would belittle this approach. Ignore them. They happen to be selling something. They might be saying, “Look at me, I have a nice website or the products and services I offer are better than others.”

That is all noise, which if you let it distract you from the task at hand, you will likely fail at that task unless you happen to be lucky. Luck however is not a plan.

There are also people out there, including in our community, who are learning about markets, learning about themselves and how to trade those markets. Depending on your level of patience and understanding, you can choose to either help them or ignore them. But don’t let them discourage you, or take you off your plan because when they speak, they speak for themselves and not you or I. They may even be doing what you and I often do, that we must do, which is to try to assess risk.

Just remember, as the owner or manager of capital, your primary mission is to lose no capital.

Consider, if you will, the physician’s Hippocratic Oath, which reads in part, “To please no one will I prescribe a deadly drug nor give advice which may cause his death.”

For those of you on the sell-side, the parallels are obvious. But, for those of us on the buy-side, we could change those words to read, “To please no one will I enter a potentially lethal trade without a measure of protection nor will I accept advice that may cause great harm to my portfolio.”

I have even been thinking of a Blogger’s Oath this week. “To please no one…” Anyway the changes are on the way, hopefully by the end of this week. After reviewing the reviews, I just decided to make fewer. Less is more as the expression goes.

At least that’s what I told “my” people. Well, since I’m not going corporate, you are my people. I was referring to the Cara back office.

Btw, if you don’t want to see banners across the top and bottom, you can do what I see a lot of these days; you can pay me to remove them. And maybe soon you will also be able to buy a cell phone/PDA text-only version of this content. I have been considering doing that after I begin to issue trading alerts, which I’m not going to do until I get registered as a broker-dealer or advisor, possibly October 1.

Have a great week. I know that wherever you are in the world, we are connected somehow. It’s a small Web.

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