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June 3, 2007

Week in Review #22 (2007-06-02)

A week ago, I was reading some guru advice that opined the broad market had turned bearish, and I wrote in the opening paragraph, “I am not yet convinced the Bulls have lost control. Soon maybe, but not quite yet.” My crystal ball at work again.

This was a monster week for the Bulls, especially in Basic Materials (XLB +3.9 pct W/W) and to a lesser extent Energy (XLE +3.3 pct W/W). In fact many resource stocks in the Cara 100 ripped. How about GGB +14.2 pct, RIO +11.6 pct, TCK +10.4 pct, BHP +8.8 pct, PKX +8.7 pct, NUE +8.4 pct, SU 3.8 pct, ECA +3.7 pct and IMO +3.6 pct. All W/W.

As one of the readers said, “I’m feeling a little better now.” Tell me about it.

This was also looking until Wednesday afternoon like a week where the US equity market was going to move apart from most international markets. Then along came the FOMC Minutes of the Fed meeting of May 9. Immediately, the US broad market was pulled higher in catch up mode with the international exchanges.

I don’t see how the US Bull is ever going to catch the one in Brazil or China. If we go back to 2004 when I made my appearance as the Trader Wizard, readers were asking why I would pick so many stocks in the Cara 100 – over one-eighth -- from those places.

In the past 30 months, I’ll bet the stocks of those 13 companies are up +100 pct or more, but whose counting anyway?

Actually… in 29 months, the gain is +150.1 pct. For Brazil the gain is +175.9 pct.



With dividends, the Total Return is much higher.

I was thinking about Brazil a lot on Friday. Some of you know that the Cara Micro-cap 100 project is being headed by a Swiss ex-pat in Brazil and that I’m working with him daily to come up with a list of 100 companies with a cap of between $100 million and $1 billion that I and my Team Micro think have a chance of having the share price run 5x in 3 to 5 years.

In addition to that, I was watching AmBev (Companhia de Bebidas) (ABV) rocket up by a stunning +4.3 pct ON FRIDAY and +8.8 pct on the week, and it hit me between the eyes. Why do I go on and on about the Brazilian beer maker. It’s not the beer, stupid, it’s Brazil!

So dress me in a costume (not a clown suit), fill me up with the stuff AmBev makes and point me to Carnival.

But, in case you are missing what’s happening these days, the Bull is not just in the Emerging Markets. How about Europe, which started to rocket ahead around March 15?



March 15? So what was I saying back then.

Well in WIR#10 (March 10) I called for a rally back to the 50 day MA only. Then in WIR #11 (March 17), I had the following to say:


This week was one of the most fascinating in capital markets for many years, and yesterday was a day of television that I believe must have left the world agog. Yes, we live in interesting times.

CNN aired an interview of Donald Trump by lead anchor Wolf Blitzer where Trump called President Bush, "probably the worst president in the history of the United States," adding that former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was a "disaster".

And, about the Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, “… a lovely woman but she never makes a deal. She doesn't make deals. She waves. She gets off the plane, she waves. She sits down with some dictator, 45 degree angle. They do the camera shot. She waves again. She gets back on the plane. She waves. No deal ever happens.”

About the White house, Trump says, "I don't know what's going on. I just know they got us into a mess, the likes of which this country has probably never seen. It's one of the great catastrophes of all time."

The world is watching. ...

My concern is that many of you will obsess over the negatives that proliferate in Bear markets, which may cause you to miss the buying opportunities that will, in time, appear.

Just remember the expression, “Things are never that good, and they are never that bad.” As we move forward in time, there is a constant reversion to the mean. If you remain objective and independent in your thinking, you’ll be able to see all that.

So, I figured something was going on. I called a rally, and I didn’t want to get caught up in all the negatives, and yet I can’t forget 2000-2002.

That’s the way it goes sometimes. You realize that late-Bull market rallies is where a lot of money is made, but you also have to have your finger close to the Sell button.

About the story that Humungous Private Equity Corp is going to propel this equity market well beyond a moon-shot because of this and that, I heard the same with Long Term Capital Management.

Just remember, wherever there is plenty of ointment around, there is always a fly close by.

Ointment btw is that viscous semisolid preparation being spread around the Sell button – just so you might miss it on the way by. Be careful with these stories of capital managers with impressive positions. They have a vested interest to hold their positions until the last moment – and then they simply have too much capital in the market to pull out. I see this every few years, where the track record of these people after the Bear cycle plays out is less than inspiring.

That doesn’t make them bad traders; just traders with a very difficult job. For some reason the media likes to focus on those people – mostly when the Bull has reached an old age and some olé’s are needed to inspire it.

Bravo, shouted the cheering section.

Right before that final frenzy.

This week, I intend to get into a piece of nonsense I will refer to as the BY Fiasco. Oil traders know the BY as the spread between the ICE Brent and the NYMEX WTI. In simple terms, it is the difference between the price of oil in Europe versus the US.

The bottom line is that I believe the US Admin and Fed are conspiring to keep the price of West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude oil lower than it should be. That skews the inflation data in the favor of these politicos who want to impress traders that inflation is not a serious problem, that interest rates do not have to rise, that equity prices should expand and, last but not least, CPI-indexed Social Security payments can be lowered.

I believe this is a fraud. Moreover, when the Admin/Fed want to kill the Bull, all they need do is start buying more oil for the so-called Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which will push the price into the 70’s, above the Brent (as it should be), which will cause the Fed to say, “We need to raise rates to head off the inflation-push caused by oil” and voila. Dead Bull.

But not before Friends & Family clear their inventory of stocks, and load up on puts.

I mean why else would people spend several hundred million dollars to get elected to a job paying a couple hundred grand? It’s called ‘management control’ – otherwise known as an opportunity to ‘get theirs’.

And when the equity market finally goes into the can, the Fed can slash their benchmark rate and tell you it was over the economy, stupid.

It’s all so predictable. Maybe Disney should take the next Pirates sequel to Washington. Do you think?


Global Market Summary

International Equities: The international markets were strong. But the foreign ETF’s that trade in the US in USD were much stronger than the actual moves on those foreign exchanges. And since the $USD didn’t move much either way this week, I think you ought to be suspicious.

U.S. Equities : The broad US market indexes enjoyed a terrific 4-day holiday week. In fact, the NASDAQ jumped all the way from 2557 to 2614. There was a two-hour flourish on Wednesday afternoon that put a lot of the zip in the numbers. At the end week, the NASDAQ was up +2.2 pct, the S&P 500 up +1.4 pct, the DJIA up +1.2 pct and the Russell small cap 2000 up +2.8 pct. Those four days made for a pretty good month.

Dow 30 : The DJIA moved from 13,507 to 13,668. Lots of movement here, but I expect the broad market to sidetrack through the Summer. I think the FOMC story is going to get stale as interest rates rise, and drivers shun the fuel pumps this summer.

U.S. Sector ETFs: Ten of 10 US sector ETF’s were up this week. On Friday, 9 of 10 gained. Only Utilities (XLU) took a hit on the day.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #2 (+3.3 pct); $WTIC headed higher this summer
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #1 (+3.9 pct); Steel, metals and gold are up
20: Industrials (XLI): #4 (+2.6 pct); This strength is not just America
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #6 (+2.0 pct); Stuff on sale
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #7 (+2.0 pct); WMT up +3.9 pct Fri. (+6.1 pct W/W)
35: Healthcare (IYH): #10 (+0.5 pct); AMGN bounce
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #8 (+1.3 pct); The Swiss banks did well
45: Tech (SMH chips): #5 (+2.5 pct); ADBE, CSCO, ORCL all strong
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #3 (+2.7 pct); T & VZ were hurt Fri w/o M&A
55: Utilities (XLU): #9 (+1.3 pct); Friday was a losing day

Bonds: US Bonds were smashed again. At least there is now an upward sloping yield curve. But isn’t that due to a rush to cash and from bonds to commodities. The rally in yields of +6 to +9 bp, when combined with the changes of a week ago, amount to the same horror show (+11 bp to +15 bp lift) of two weeks ago. The Bond Bulls are trying to look at things on the bright side. At least the pain is lessening. And we might be getting oversold on bonds. I am looking for a relief rally soon.

Commodities: A week ago I wrote, “$CRB was losing all week, until Friday’s gain of +1.2 pct, closing the week flat.” This week, the Friday rally was +0.85 pct, leaving $CRB up +0.33 pct W/W. Nobody wants to go home short commodities for the weekend, it seems.

Oil & Gas: Crude oil lifted from 64.38 last Friday to 65.05 this Friday. Maybe we ought to start quoting ICE Brent as the new global benchmark?

Gold: Two weeks ago I wrote, “Metals and precious metals got hammered again this week, but not to worry; help is on the way. On Friday, the cavalry started to climb the hill. This is no Light Brigade.” Just to spite me, the “G” Team managed to smash $GOLD last week to 655.85. But they cannot hold back global buying demand forever. This week $GOLD rallied to 676.90, probably on its way to 700-plus, soon.

Goldminers: A week ago, I told you not to put your trust in the weekly data that stated $XAU had dropped -0.7 pct that week. I said, “Maybe the cycle is bottoming? Do you think? A week ago, Friday, $XAU and GDX lifted +1.3 pct and +2.0 pct respectively. So, over the past six sessions, the goldminers have actually lifted.” YES. This week $XAU lifted a lot more, up +4.9 pct.

Forex: The $USD dropped from 82.36 to 82.32 this week. But the Euro also dropped (from 134.52 to 134.38) and so did the Pound (198.46 to 198.19) as did the Yen (82.16 to 81.92). So what’s up? Was this week just a rush into Canadian Loonies (+1.8 pct) ahead of the gold-filled (+2.3 pct) Stanley Cup? Or was the Yuan also stronger as Madam Wu and Dr Xiao were suggesting? Actually the Yuan was flat this week, and even spiked weaker for a few hours on Thursday, likely to help support the $USD.


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar for next week.

Econoday Weekly International Report.

Econoday report on US Q1 GDP.

Econoday report on May 30 FOMC Minutes of May 9 meeting. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for June 27-28, 2007.

Econoday report on US Consumer Confidence for May.



Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.

Ten of the ten sector ETF’s I follow here were UP this week. It was a very strong week, largely on the strength of Wednesday afternoon’s rally following release of the FOMC Minutes of the May 9 meeting.

We got back to a normal sector rotation this week. Telco’s (#3 down from #1) were stronger than typical because of M&A deals and rumors, but Energy, Materials and Industrials were performers #1, #2, and #4. The Consumer Discretionary (#6), Staples (#7) and Financials (#8) followed in order with only Semi-conductors (#5) jumping the queue, again on the basis of deal talk and/or pre-deal positioning. Utilities were bumped from #10 to #9 by Healthcare, which dropped because of GlaxoSmithKline again (-10.6 pct over two weeks).

Table 1 is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLB 41.30 0.40 0.98% 3.85% 2.92% 5.76% 19.33% 11.44% 18.95% 27.08%
XLE 68.92 0.77 1.13% 3.25% 3.25% 6.52% 21.81% 21.51% 13.50% 23.73%
IYZ 34.54 0.01 0.03% 2.71% 3.82% 5.92% 16.45% 13.39% 21.32% 35.98%
XLI 39.28 0.15 0.38% 2.64% 2.34% 3.53% 11.50% 11.31% 12.49% 14.55%
SMH 36.98 0.27 0.74% 2.52% -0.32% -0.24% 10.16% 8.26% 8.70% 6.82%
XLY 40.33 0.31 0.77% 2.02% 2.46% 2.33% 4.70% 5.96% 7.18% 18.48%
XLP 27.90 0.15 0.54% 2.01% 1.49% 1.82% 6.16% 6.08% 9.28% 16.20%
XLF 38.02 0.15 0.40% 1.33% 0.88% 1.14% 2.98% 5.88% 7.46% 15.00%
XLU 41.61 -0.17 -0.41% 1.29% -2.32% -1.33% 13.01% 7.66% 13.32% 29.42%
IYH 72.54 0.22 0.30% 0.54% 1.14% 0.83% 9.15% 9.02% 9.88% 18.26%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ

55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU



Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

XLE had a terrific week (+3.25 pct), closing at 68.92.

Crude Oil on the NYMEX (WTI) rallied a bit, but the European Brent on ICE was very strong.

CEO +5.6 pct, PBR +4.9 pct, and SU +3.8 pct are indicative of the rush into international oil stocks.


Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Monthly Data

XLE Weekly data:


XLE Weekly Data

XLE Daily data:

XLE Daily Data

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
CEO 96.66 2.62 2.79% 5.56% 6.49% 8.75% 2.54% 21.52% 10.44% 26.63%
PBR 111.21 3.05 2.82% 4.90% 4.29% 8.34% 11.59% 24.72% 18.43% 26.00%
SU 88.66 1.48 1.70% 3.84% 2.97% 8.11% 19.96% 26.08% 12.17% 8.43%
ECA 62.37 0.97 1.58% 3.74% 1.09% 13.52% 37.56% 29.16% 17.79% 21.37%
IMO 47.54 0.98 2.10% 3.64% 7.31% 22.84% 33.31% 37.00% 26.17% 27.76%
CVX 82.23 0.74 0.91% 2.83% 0.95% 3.36% 15.87% 21.64% 12.47% 37.10%
XOM 84.22 1.05 1.26% 2.36% 2.96% 4.39% 13.64% 18.64% 9.09% 37.82%
STO 28.18 0.88 3.22% 1.84% 3.49% -3.59% 9.69% 9.06% 0.97% -4.25%
TOT 76.06 0.61 0.81% 1.48% 2.63% 0.81% 7.17% 14.69% 7.75% 16.16%


Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada



Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) was the #1 performer this week, gaining +3.85 pct to close at 41.30.

A week ago, I wrote, “Gold keeps getting hammered down(-6.15/oz this week). But that’s the thing with gold. It’s malleable, and recovers quickly. Particularly when inflation and speculation (and therefore interest rates) are on the rise. Somebody asked me why it is that I believe the c.bankers are the culprits in whacking gold. I replied that the World Gold Council data tell you all you need to know. If governments didn’t sell, the price of gold would be through the roof because demand would far exceed the supply.”

This week the European Central Bank stated that gold sales would be put off for several months. Ergo: $GOLD up +15.50 this week.

I also wrote last week, “Speaking of real estate, which many of you are this weekend, we all know that a c.banker is a motivated seller of gold. So what do smart people do when they see a motivated seller selling? The buyers stand aside and let the prices drop. Then they step in and buy more of the stuff. Unlike residential real estate from these levels, I believe we will see a 100 pct to 250 pct move in gold within maybe eight to ten years. And when gold goes higher, OPEC will withhold their oil from the market because why take wooden nickels? These oil producing nations want to get paid either in gold or in higher prices of the depreciating currencies. Then interest rates will soar and all that debt that has been building in the past five years at geometric rates of growth will implode. Creditors will simply be unable to pay their debts. But real estate and gold without encumbrances will always have value. So, what I’m saying is that Basic Materials and Energy are still the places to be for the long-term until govts can figure a way to put a stop to debt expansion that is not linked directly to wealth creation.”

This week gold moved up +2.34 pct and silver +5.69 pct. The big moves in the mid/large cap golds were AEM +11.7 pct, AUY +10.0 pct and GG +9.3 pct.

But the biggest movers in XLB were the steelers and base metals. GGB +14.2 pct, RIO +11.6 pct, TCK +10.4 pct, BHP +8.8 pct, PKX +8.7 pct, NUE +8.4 pct… well, you get the point.

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Monthly Data

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Weekly Data

XLB Daily data:

XLB Daily Data

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
GGB 23.87 1.13 4.97% 14.16% 8.11% 15.04% 45.37% 41.58% 53.41% 63.49%
RIO 47.02 1.57 3.45% 11.61% 4.58% 9.94% 63.15% 40.36% 70.49% 100.00%
TCK 42.70 0.46 1.09% 10.36% 5.46% -46.79% -38.34% -39.03% -43.51% 0.00%
MT 63.37 3.38 5.63% 10.36% 9.92% 16.25% 55.32% 21.28% 56.78% 87.49%
BHP 53.94 1.30 2.47% 8.75% 6.54% 7.82% 38.77% 27.52% 31.91% 26.71%
PKX 122.60 3.30 2.77% 8.69% 9.56% 14.15% 54.35% 34.08% 54.68% 86.61%
NUE 69.25 1.71 2.53% 8.36% 5.32% 5.73% 27.06% 13.86% 18.09% 29.73%
TS 49.85 0.20 0.40% 7.74% 9.06% 5.55% 2.74% 11.22% 9.51% 33.61%
RTP 296.34 3.39 1.16% 6.41% 6.58% 16.83% 45.19% 40.11% 38.06% 36.35%
AA 41.46 0.18 0.44% 3.11% 5.90% 18.25% 41.36% 24.69% 34.31% 27.30%


Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Industrials (XLI) were up +2.64 pct to 39.28 this week. One story was Fedex (FDX), which rallied +5.1 pct. But the rally also took the international industrials higher: Brazil’s Embraer (ERJ +4.5 pct) was flying, and Swiss ABB was up +4.4 pct after gaining +3.0 pct a week ago.


Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:


XLI Monthly data:


XLI Monthly Data


XLI Weekly data:

XLI Weekly Data

XLI Daily data:

XLI Daily Data

Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
FDX 111.29 -0.33 -0.30% 5.07% 3.79% 1.78% 1.38% -2.51% -3.12% -0.05%
HON 58.80 0.89 1.54% 5.02% 1.00% 5.00% 30.38% 27.30% 37.35% 41.65%
ERJ 48.38 -0.10 -0.21% 4.54% 2.91% 0.06% 18.64% 7.37% 18.93% 39.58%
ABB 21.74 0.27 1.26% 4.37% 8.16% 8.48% 22.00% 31.12% 33.29% 72.81%
UTX 70.78 0.23 0.33% 3.69% 2.03% 4.20% 12.69% 8.69% 10.84% 11.99%
CAT 78.14 -0.44 -0.56% 3.59% 4.41% 6.52% 27.76% 22.28% 27.70% 6.62%
BA 99.83 -0.76 -0.76% 2.47% 3.14% 6.37% 11.95% 13.64% 11.48% 19.36%
MMM 88.43 0.47 0.53% 1.47% 2.03% 5.19% 13.00% 20.05% 10.57% 4.64%
GE 37.45 -0.13 -0.35% 0.19% 2.52% 0.29% -1.37% 7.00% 6.15% 8.39%




Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) gained +2.02 pct W/W to close at 40.33.

Apparently We the People have both jobs and money to spend.


Econoday report on US Jobs.

Econoday report on US Personal Income and Outlays.

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:


XLY Monthly data:


XLY Monthly Data


XLY Weekly data:


XLY Weekly Data


XLY Daily data:


XLY Daily Data


Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
NKE 56.69 -0.06 -0.11% 4.08% 7.06% 6.40% 16.10% 7.67% 16.17% 39.25%
JCP 81.99 1.51 1.88% 3.96% 2.82% 3.54% 5.03% 2.55% 7.42% 26.55%
SBUX 29.13 0.32 1.11% 2.90% 2.32% -7.87% -17.36% -4.15% -16.98% -19.55%
TM 122.94 2.18 1.81% 2.18% 1.19% 2.11% -9.14% -6.35% 2.45% 13.16%
BC 34.80 0.37 1.07% 1.96% 2.75% 5.65% 9.02% 6.19% 9.95% -3.76%
CCL 50.54 0.10 0.20% 1.96% 6.49% 4.96% -0.80% 9.66% 7.33% 26.00%
WHR 111.39 -0.26 -0.23% 0.19% -1.55% -1.27% 31.57% 26.06% 31.59% 23.42%
EBAY 32.27 -0.29 -0.89% -1.35% -2.15% -6.79% 6.96% 1.06% 2.90% -2.45%
DIS 35.24 -0.20 -0.56% -1.67% -2.08% -1.26% 3.04% 2.47% 6.50% 15.09%

NKE (+4.1 pct) keeps running. And the upscale market keeps JC Penny (JCP) rolling (4.0 pct).



Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +2.01 pct W/W to close at $27.90.

Wal-Mart had quite a month on Friday (+3.9 pct), ending the week up +6.1 pct.

ABV did them one better. Friday’s gain was +4.3 pct, making it +8.8 pct W/W.

No, these are not TSX.V penny stocks.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:


XLP Monthly data:

XLP Monthly Data

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Weekly Data

XLP Daily data:

XLP Daily Data


Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
ABV 70.71 2.91 4.29% 8.83% 7.51% 13.63% 44.01% 43.34% 53.72% 65.17%
WMT 49.47 1.87 3.93% 6.05% 5.01% 2.30% 4.04% 3.30% 7.85% 2.23%
BUD 54.01 0.67 1.26% 5.32% 8.72% 7.38% 9.73% 10.18% 13.39% 17.44%
KO 52.80 -0.19 -0.36% 3.04% 1.15% -0.21% 8.69% 13.50% 13.38% 20.22%
WFMI 41.67 0.57 1.39% 2.91% 5.41% -8.03% -8.38% -11.25% -13.33% -36.86%
MO 71.82 0.72 1.01% 1.92% 3.04% 2.94% 10.63% 13.46% 13.93% 32.17%
WAG 45.13 0.00 0.00% 1.21% -0.46% 1.30% -2.04% 1.12% 12.07% 11.16%
DEO 86.02 0.63 0.74% 1.01% 2.16% 1.05% 8.16% 10.28% 10.78% 28.70%
PG 63.48 -0.07 -0.11% 0.97% 0.17% 2.39% -1.64% -0.31% 1.26% 16.52%
PEP 68.70 0.37 0.54% 0.37% 0.31% 2.07% 9.53% 8.31% 10.88% 12.44%

Last week I wrote, “A week ago, Companhia de Bebidas Das Americas (AMBEV) (ABV) rocketed to $67.42. This week it lost almost -$2.00. Yes, Brazil’s AmBev (ABV) had really been on a rip -- up +10.7 pct a week ago. Since it’s a beer company, I suggested we might refer to it as a rip roaring drunk. No moderation there.”

Yes, as I wrote earlier, ABV rocketed +8.8 pct this week. Moderation needed.


Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The IYH healthcare ETF was up +0.54 pct W/W, after being up +0.30 pct on Friday, to close at 72.54.

Last week I wrote, “A week ago, Friday (+0.73 pct) was a also good day, just like the Friday before that. Hmmm.” Are we seeing a pattern here, or is the market truly a Random Walk? (LOL)

Btw, the prof who wrote that piece of comedy was once a senior advisor to the US Admin. I’ll bet he had the White House in stitches.

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:


IYH Monthly data:

IYH Monthly Data

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Weekly Data

IYH Daily data:

IYH Daily Data

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
AMGN 56.94 0.49 0.87% 4.34% 6.07% -10.91% -16.75% -7.70% -17.86% -17.23%
AET 53.27 0.34 0.64% 3.24% 1.35% 10.70% 24.23% 18.77% 28.86% 32.81%
DNA 79.50 -0.27 -0.34% 2.40% 2.63% -2.51% -2.81% -4.89% -3.88% -3.76%
UNH 55.21 0.44 0.80% 1.84% 2.91% 3.80% 5.02% 4.68% 13.07% 20.76%
BMY 30.48 0.17 0.56% 1.50% 0.89% 3.89% 15.54% 14.41% 22.71% 21.19%
PFE 27.68 0.19 0.69% 1.47% 1.17% 3.01% 5.29% 10.54% -0.65% 15.82%
BMET 43.93 0.31 0.71% 0.71% 1.10% 1.27% 5.93% 3.78% 15.85% 22.74%
NVS 56.32 0.14 0.25% 0.43% -1.49% -2.95% -3.13% 2.21% -2.61% 1.22%
JNJ 63.41 0.14 0.22% -0.11% 1.07% -1.41% -4.50% 1.54% -3.88% 4.55%
GSK 51.28 -0.90 -1.72% -2.49% -10.58% -10.72% -4.70% -8.22% -4.56% -8.40%


The story remains GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Amgen (AMGN). Merck (MRK) dropped -3.0 pct, which was the worst performance this week in the Dow 30 by far. Even Disney’s Pirates could only steal -1.67 pct.


Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) gained +1.33 pct to close at 38.02, which was 8th best performer out of 10 again this week.


Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:


XLF Monthly Data

XLF Weekly data:


XLF Weekly Data

XLF Daily data:


XLF Daily Data

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
UBS 65.04 -0.20 -0.31% 2.90% 2.51% 2.54% 5.95% 10.71% 9.37% 13.13%
CS 76.60 0.67 0.88% 2.71% 1.44% -1.26% 9.26% 9.88% 15.07% 0.00%
LEH 75.23 1.85 2.52% 2.66% 3.14% -0.56% -4.32% 2.72% 2.56% 11.42%
GS 230.71 -0.11 -0.05% 2.23% 1.46% 4.13% 14.94% 15.55% 18.62% 50.25%
MS 86.07 1.03 1.21% 1.91% 2.26% 0.93% 5.45% 14.62% 14.35% 42.08%
MER 93.30 0.57 0.61% 0.75% 1.19% 1.11% -0.33% 11.42% 7.51% 28.51%
HBC 93.20 0.16 0.17% 0.73% -0.11% -1.23% 0.25% 7.25% 0.50% 6.62%
JPM 51.90 0.07 0.14% 0.60% -1.26%