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June 12, 2007
Goldminers reviewed, Tues., June 12, 2007, 6:33 PM
Many traders make decisions on the basis of less than adequate information. For goldminer studies, one of the best research teams in the business is BMO Capital Markets.
Here is a partial compilation of fundamental and quantitative data from a much larger weekly report from BMO. In addition, I provide links to a selection of charts (Monthly, Weekly and Daily data series, including RSI-7).
Beyond that I make no comment as I feel the data speaks for itself.
BMO also reports the same data for a selection of 14 junior and emerging producers.








Summary of current BMO forecasts regarding prices for Metals, Currencies and Interest Rates, on which their other fundamental and quantitative data calculations are based.

Links to a selection of charts:
It would be helpful for the community here to discuss this data on its merits.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 12, 2007 06:33:16 PM | Category: Gold
Discourse
It looks like BMO sees uptrends in gold and silver into 2009, and downtrends for platinum, palladium and copper.
Target prices for all senior and intermediate producers (with the exception of Newcrest) are appreciably higher than current share prices.
Largest growth in reserves for seniors -> GG and KGC; lowest growth -> GFI. On the other hand, GFI has the highest expected EPS growth. Lowest cost producers (among seniors) -> KGC, GG, BVN.
Bill, thanks for the research. As Julian Robertson used to say, if there's no change in the "story," then no change in the position, or add to it. If we assume BMO has a good research team, and that they know more than 99% of the commentators out there, then I would say stop worrying about the position and direct that energy somewhere else...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 12, 2007 7:00 PM [link]
BB, I think that a BMO RR would be the best person to answer your question. In a way, I happen to be an intermediary. I believe one of the serious issues around full-service brokerage is that more time needs to be spent between a buy-side account and a non-commissioned brokerage house manager. By your understanding more of what each of the full-service firms can bring to the table, and your being able to provide the brokerage house an objective self-assessment and statement of needs, I feel you have done your homework. Then it is incumbent upon the brokerage house to find somebody in their salesforce who they think will meet your requirements.
If you are honest with them, and say that you have an electronic brokerage account (or two or three) but also want to get covered by a full-service broker who can put minimal effort into your account other than sending you research, it could be they don't want the account. It could also be that they see you as an honest person who would be someone who one of their new reps could benefit from. I know in my career as a full-service brokerage house manager, I would do that. You see, you never know when you might want to obtain a mortgage or an RRSP or a new issue or something else that these big firms offer, and the best way for the full-service firm to have a shot at your business is to have a personal relationship with you. Besides, their rep might just come up with an idea that you were looking for that is well worth that $300 commission.
This month I met with a senior BMO rep who stated that at one point early on with BMO, the senior RR's in the office all decided to pass on the opportunity of taking on a very small account. That RR did, and became personal advisor to a family in a foreign land with substantial business operations, employees, etc. A very small account apparently became a very large one.
That junior RR you deal with might one day listen to you say something like you have a group that is looking for some corporate finance work, like M&A or an IPO, etc, and jump at the opportunity to represent you inside their investment bank. It's a lot easier getting in the door when you have a champoin on the inside.
But the bottom line is that if you are honest with them, they will quickly size you up as an account (albeit small) that they would like to have.
I used to have a client who had accounts with seven brokerage houses because he was a new issue player (as in flipper). We on the Street all knew the score. He was a size account; he was honest; and sophisticated. Being in a major firm, I always put in for anywhere from 1,000 to 10,000 shares or more of every new issue where our firm was in the selling syndicate (which was most of them). Because we never had a problem with him, he usually got an allocation, and I'll tell you the commish on 10,000 shares of a $25 new issue was a nice payback for the little effort that went into his account.
I feel that in life what goes around comes around. Be straight up with them and they will help you.
In the case of BMO, their Investorline discount brokerage is one of the best. One of my good friends was the founder and original CEO before moving on to do the same at HSBC.
I have some good personal reasons to no longer support them as I once did, but don't we all have an axe to grind somewhere? In writing a blog I try to be fair to all sides.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
June 12, 2007 7:30 PM [link]
It seems like years ago now that Goldcorp acquired Glamis. At the time all of the talking heads were "matchmaking" the next takeovers. Eldorado, Kinross and pretty much every other intermediate was named as a takeover candidate. So, what happened?
Posted by: Fred
at
June 12, 2007 7:51 PM [link]
Hi,
My question is about BillCara2.com...I clicked on the monthly charts above and arrived at BillCara2. I've seen the site mentioned but never found it on my searches. I signed up and wanted to pay for my subscription, but it wasn't hppts. Is this site legitimate and approved by Bill? I'm rather paranoid about giving my credit cardinfo on the internet.
Is anyone using this service? I've been reading this site for over 1 year and refer to it daily. So if anyone can answer my ? I'd greatly appreciate it.
Sarah-Hadassah
Posted by: SH
at
June 12, 2007 7:54 PM [link]
Sarah-Hadassah,
Re BillCara2.com: this is my site, but all I have done so far is put my own server into Investertech, change the masthead and put menu navigation across the top. Tonight I received a new masthead that ties into the new ones for BillCara.com and TraderWizard.com, and eventually to the Cara Trading Advisors (Bahamas) Ltd. All I'm doing at this point is starting to brand myself, but everything is non-commercial. Soon, I will introduce banner ads, pdf reports (like the WIR) that will be sponsored, and offer my upcoming book for sale. Then I will dig into the BillCara2.com database and start to offer a mix of free and premium views that will be totally unlike what you could get at Investertech/BillCara2.com today. When I am happy that the service works and offers a good value (for the premium side), I will have a new billing system and begin to promote it. I will do the same for TraderWizard.com. There too I will offer some free stuff (like Wall Street research for those who agree to my conditions that we discuss this material within the community and that no public uploads are done) and some premium stuff I will create (like books and reports) for those who want it. The BillCara.com blog will remain free; however, I do intend to improve it.
Basically I just want to be organized and I needed more computers (I bought another one today for this purpose) and some staff to help me do that so I can leave at the end of the month for Bahamas, and get to enjoy life. The premium reports and banners will pay for all the time and computing resources that goes into this. That was a tough decision for me to make, but there is a limit to my wanting to subsidize anybody (including hedge funds and financial advisors) who come here. The move to Bahamas sealed the deal. I cannot leave without a "back office" here to ensure my standards and your expectations are met.
So to answer your question, when the new websites are functioning the way I want, you will be able to subscribe to services if you want. I already have secure payment, accounting and banking systems in place ready to go.
It is all this back office stuff really that has tired me out. The blog has never taken me that much time, and it is clearly something I enjoy doing. I thought I left the corporate world six and a half years ago. But in Bahamas I will get properly licensed because there are deals I can do that will help the country immensely. I will need a license to do such deals.
Btw, when I lived there in the mid-90's the govt of the day came to me to ask what I could do about a certain problem. Two months later, about $100 million dollars came in because of my focused efforts. Part of that became the new Hilton British Colonial Hotel in downtown Nassau. What I hope to do this time around is on a scale that much bigger.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
June 12, 2007 8:22 PM [link]
Many thanks for this, Bill.
Methinks I have some extrication to work out.
Yamana, and my commitment thereto, could stand an upgrade.
Regards
Joey
Posted by: joey
at
June 12, 2007 8:50 PM [link]
Thanks for the advice Bill. I will give them a call and see what I can do.
I surmise by the multiple sources of research which you have access to that you must maintain accounts at several brokerages. How do you find this works for you?
Thanks.
Posted by: bb
at
June 12, 2007 8:52 PM [link]
The 10yr Bond auction did not go well today and yield increased, but the problem in selling bonds is not limited to just the US. Some emerging debt and some Euro debt is also having some tough times. Here is a quote from the link below:
"... The session's peak yields followed a weak $8bn sale of new US 10-year bonds, in which foreign investors bought less than 11 per cent of the bonds available.
Dominic Konstam, head of interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse. "Foreign investors are not buying this market and Treasuries are also having to compete with higher returns on risky assets." ..."
Might not bode well, as Bill said in his commentary, for Gold bottoming here.
Posted by: spot
at
June 12, 2007 9:11 PM [link]
Hey Guys,
I'm a little slow when it comes to charts with numbers on em....could someone interpret the above data and perhaps rank the miners according to criteria such as maybe upside potential on a gold price explosion and maybe downside protection in the event of a collapse? Which are the best ones to own? I don't mean to sound lazy but I am, and I know someone else could do a much better job of this than me.
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 12, 2007 9:12 PM [link]
Bill,
Thank you for your answer.
I look forward to the sailing of your products and will continue to read, learn, and follow you on your journey, even as a stowaway.
My intention is to pay for the ticket, I just don't want to be left be-hind.
Sarah-Hadassah.
Posted by: SH
at
June 12, 2007 9:16 PM [link]
Open Letter to US Gold Shareholders
US GOLD CORPORATION (TSX: UXG)(AMEX: UXG) -
Dear Fellow Shareholders,
How do we standout from our competition? What will be US Gold's competitive advantage in the marketplace? Why should potential investors be looking at us as an attractive investment? I ask myself these questions everyday in order to develop an edge.
Take a look at the resource sector today. It is very crowded with companies that have similar stories. The names of their projects may be different, but there is very little setting them apart. Which one do you buy, how do you decide, it's confusing.
When I became Chairman and CEO in August 2005, I set a number of goals for US Gold that were designed to create the PREMIER EXPLORATION COMPANY IN NEVADA! I thought if we could establish a land position and exploration budget equal to world's largest gold producers, have a balance sheet and trading liquidity equal to a mid-tier producer and retain the upside potential of an exploration company we would be an attractive way for investors to participate in Nevada's gold rush.
We have now completed most of our goals and now we are concentrating on finding Nevada's next major discovery. I am continually told that in Nevada you need patience when looking for gold. I am not a very patient person. Therefore, we are looking for ways to accelerate our exploration program. Whether this means finding new ways to work with NASA, examining other industries to improve efficiency or outsourcing our geological processing, the rate at which we discover gold must improve.
New Management and Board
After taking control of US Gold I started to build a new management team and Board. In a short period of time we have assembled a talented group of employees that have been associated with a number of Nevada's large, highly profitable gold discoveries such as Newmont's Twin Creeks, Lone Tree and Emigrant Springs deposits. These combined discoveries contain approximately 20 million ounces of gold.
Our board consists of entrepreneurial minded individuals, whose work experience includes leading the top institutional annual gold conference, heading mining research for one the largest U.S. investment banks, serving on numerous mining companies boards and lobbying Congress on behalf of the mining industry.
Big Financing $75 Million - 3 Year Aggressive Exploration
In February 2006 we completed an oversubscribed financing of $75 million. The objective was to give US Gold the financial strength it needed to conduct an aggressive exploration program. I often see exploration companies raise just enough money to drill a few holes. If they fail to deliver a discovery, which is normally the case during the early stages of exploration, they have to shut down their work program while they raise additional funds.
This model is slow and continues to dilute shareholders ownership. My objective was to raise enough money so that US Gold could explore non-stop for three years.
Sandwiched Between World's Largest Gold Producers!
By taking over the three companies that originally surrounded our Tonkin property in the Cortez Trend our land holdings have grown from 36 to 170 square miles! To put this into perspective our property is now four times the size of Manhattan and rivals Barrick Gold's Cortez Joint Venture property where over 33 million ounces of gold have been discovered. We are sandwiched between Barrick and Newmont Mining, the world's top two gold producers who have a combined market capitalization of $45 billion!
Our land package is strategic and extremely prospective. It has the right characteristics to host large deposits. The task of putting it all together took longer than I initially thought, but it is now complete.
2 New Listings - More Liquidity
In 2006 we took US Gold off the Over the Counter Bulletin Board and listed on the American and Toronto Stock Exchanges under the symbol UXG. Our trading volume continues to increase and US Gold's shares have become more liquid then any other Nevada exploration company. Our new listings enable us to access larger pools of capital and have made it easier for new potential buyers to invest in US Gold.
In addition to the two exchanges above, our shares were recently listed on the Frankfurt Exchange under the ticker symbol US8 and US Gold's warrants now trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol UXG.WT.
Exploration - Looking for Big, Exciting Discoveries!
We are located in one of the best places to be looking for gold! Our properties are surrounded by some of the world's largest gold discoveries, the USA remains one of the safest places in which to explore and our costs are protected against the falling U.S. dollar. Barrick recently announced they would be spending $68 million on exploration in North America and that their focus would be Nevada!
US Gold launched its exploration program in the middle of 2006 and our initial efforts were focused on confirming and expanding the known gold mineralization on the property. Recent drilling results from untested areas are encouraging. Our exploration has also discovered a high grade base metal occurrence. It is important to note that other base metal discoveries in the Cortez Trend have been associated with or located near large gold deposits.
I cannot guarantee you that our exploration will prove successful, but I can guarantee you that we will spend all our money. We are a cash flow negative business. Think of exploration as research and development. The results of our exploration program will ultimately determine the direction of our share price.
We are in one of the world's most exciting industries where a discovery can financially change ones life! My view on the gold price remains very bullish and I believe US Gold offers excellent upside potential. I am US Gold's largest shareholder owning approximately 20% of the company. My focus is to deliver all of us a higher share price.
Best Regards,
Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO
Posted by: Telestar3d
at
June 13, 2007 2:01 AM [link]
I'd like to comment on the gold price estimate they use. Only $675 for 2008, $700 for 2009 and $550 long-term? I wonder how long is long-term? Is it far-fetched for gold to go into 4 digits at some point? Doesn't seem so far-fetched to me, given the way things are going in the world. But, maybe BMO is being conservative.
Posted by: Denny
at
June 13, 2007 8:20 AM [link]
The market is down, along with gold miners...is this why so little discussion? Since getting hooked by gld miners this spring...starting to do a little more scratching of the data..and Bill's reports here are a great summary. Juniors, historically have by far the most appreciation of price. Report above expects OP of gammon and eldorado. Price charts show the latter to have the most relative strength, by far. Among majors kinross and gold corp are listed as OPs. Kinross wins this hands down on the price chart. Not sure what is holding back gammon and gold corp. In the data above intresting to look at debt, assets, reserves, cost of production, and eps growth. Those figures are pretty straight forward. Being an etf user, gdx looks like a laggard but eza/south africa chock full of pm'ers has nice relstr.
Posted by: jasper
at
June 13, 2007 2:38 PM [link]
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Hi Bill,
I agree that BMO Nesbitt has the best research in Canada and are particularly strong when it comes to gold (and Donald Coxe).
I cancelled my account with them a couple of years ago when I went consolidated everything to a discount brokerage with $10 trades instead of $300 trades. Great for trading and nice to have everything in one place, but I am really missing the research ideas.
Is the only way to get access back with them to reopen a BMO Nesbitt account? I looked at their web site and it looks like their discount brokerage does not offer the same research as the Nesbitt arm. Would it make sense just to open a Nesbitt Account and throw $10K into a money market fund?
Any info would be appreciated.
BB
Posted by: bb
at
June 12, 2007 6:41 PM [link]