Thanks again, Bill, for all that you do to help us avoid "fool's gold" . . . .

Thanks Bill for sharing all this great info

Wow! Now I can sink my teeth in the BMO Research paper. With your valuable info and the BMO notes & definitions, I'm printing it all and studying as if I'm preparing for a class.

Thanks again.

Sarah-Hadassah

I stepped out of KRY today at a small loss for the time being. Will rebuy by days end

Bill, thanks for this; and thanks again to you. Aussie and MikeNYU Grad for the tutorial last sat night (which I commend to anyone who missed it)
Applying those lessons, I compiled a summary of Golden Star's 'costs' which extravagantly illustrates your point. I tried to reproduce it here; but my reformatting skills are too primitive for the challenge.
Anyway, to summarize my summary:
In Q1FY07, GSS produced 45825 oz og gold, sold for 652/oz.
Total cash cost was $553/oz.
BUT, production and operating expense was $38.79mill
O+P cost was $846/oz.

In FY06, GSS produced 201,407 oz
Total cash cost was $460/oz
BUT, P + O expense was $127.36 million
O+P cost/oz was $632

FY05 numbers:total cash cost, $396; gold sold at $446; O+P cost, $528.
Conclusion: GSS is not making money producing and selling gold.
Karl has the report.
Regards all.
joey

whoops! missing detail...
avg price fetched for gold sold in 2006 was $607.

joey

To Joey Re: "MikeNYU Grad"

You mean MikeNYC. I barely read the blog yest.

Re: gold selloff - I don't dispute the current reasons to be INVESTING in gold over the next few years. But as to timing or TRADING the metal, I think the sell-off today is less evidence of manipulation by HB&B and the Fed and more evidence of the current bias in the market.

I think that gold is still being traded on past twenty years of historical experience that says a slowing economy and rising interest rates will contain inflation - not increase it. The expectations for lower growth must be dampening inflation expectations in the short term and thus one of the main reasons to hold gold seems to dissappear for the short run.

I do agree that this presents a potential longer term buying opportunity, principally because many participants on this site have done the research that indicates the rise in inflation and gold prices over past few years has less to do about growth, and more about excessive money printing and commodity price inflation.

The reason I like the above explanation better than - "oh, HB&B is selling some more gold today" - is it provides us with some type of framework to analyze the price action with. I guess the relative value of this approach will prove itself over coming month or two as we see whether gold market stabilizes at 630 or proceeds into the 500s.

Here's a study done by John Hussman on the optimal time to own PM stocks.
"In the rare instances when 1) The rate of inflation has been higher than 6 months earlier, 2) Treasury bond yields have been lower than 6 months earlier, 3) the NAPM Purchasing Managers Index has been below 50, and 4) the Gold/XAU ratio has been above 4.0, the XAU has soared at an astounding rate of 123.63% annualized. In contrast, when none of these have been true, the XAU has plunged at -53.21% annualized."

I think it also helps to keep track of the C.O.T. figures showing how long or short the commercials are relative to the traders/speculators.

Jesse's crossroad cafe found a seeming correlation between end of quarter and gold/silver selloffs:

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/silvergold.png

This gives hope for a rally beginning next week. Can anyone postulate a theory?

Regarding Hussman's formula, it looks like evidence of a slowing economy and/or signs of lack of Fed vigilance will jumpstart the PM's.

yes, giving credit where credit's due...MikeNYC...unforgettably helpful...

regards

joey

Cash costs comparisons can be misleading as some companies, Goldcorp for instance, offset gold cash costs with revenues from other metals byproducts (copper). So if copper prices/revenues declines then Goldcorps cash costs for gold increase.

Tom

it's ok joey, I'm not in it for the glory :-)

These companies that mine several metals - it sounds like they get quite complicated to evaluate. I wonder if some kind of spreadsheet, where fluctuating metals prices and production costs can be plugged in to evaluate, ceteris paribus, the effect of the cash price changes to the bottom line would be the best way to go. Sounds like it would be a lot of work...

But the fact that you have your reports done and sent to Karl is making feel pret-ty bad about mine. I'm almost there.

I'm glad I have a 'one commodity company.' The other day everyone was talking about profitable producing juniors/explorers with lots of prospects and results to announce...you're gonna love this one. I'm so psyched I can barely keep my mouth shut.

But I don't want to ruin the movie, as they say.

Now that I'm home from my 'job' it's time to really enjoy 'getting to work.'

Regards, all.

Mike
NYC

I've reviewed the BMO Report (from an investment perspective) and, based on BMO's numbers, Gammon and Kinross look to be the best of the companies analyzed in the report. Each is projected to grow significantly, have relatively low cost of production, positive future cash flow and currently trade at a meaningful discount to NAV. BMO sees a large upside to both. I suggest that both Kinross and Gammon warrant a closer look beyond the BMO numbers. Disclosure: I own a puny amount of Kinross and have no position in Gammon.

joey,
One last thought. You might try to contact the Investor Relations dept. Tell them you are researching the company. Send them an email with your calculations. Ask them if you have it right.

The response you get may tell you a lot about the company, and they may have something to offer.

Just a thought.

Mike
NYC

KRY STUFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Headline and partial story from Tuesday night suggests that the minister hasn't gotten the paperwork with which to approve the mine even if he wanted to. Suggests that the permiting may not happen for days/weeks.

---------------------------------------------

Venezuelan MinAmb fine-tunes details for Las Cristinas environ permit

BNAmericas (Harvey Beltran): Venezuela's environment ministry MinAmb is fine-tuning the details for approval of an environmental permit for the Las Cristinas gold project in the Guayana region.

"We're just wrapping up the review and drawing up the file that will be sent to the minister, so we are still working on that process," a high-ranking official at the ministry told BNamericas.

______________________________________________________

Sounds like KRY jumped the gun again, to put it kindly, with their latest announcement and that we are still days/weeks away from an actual permit. I didn't purchase at the close due to the very bearish feeling in general and specifically the way yesterdays candle pattern was disrespected today, suggesting a bottom but not ensuring one. Now, once this tidbit gets out, I'm hoping to pick this stock up on the cheap in the next few sessions.

Chris

ALOHA !!

Soulek1 ... Whats short term ... this week or yesterday? Long term ... whats that? September? I've been alive over 45 years and I have not seen any consumer prices go down yet. All the essentials keep going up year after year ... decade after decade! OH-H-H okay you're talking about Bens little CPI number! What is it the tenth version of the original CPI they're on now? I've lost count ...

Well thats the first and most complex lie they want you to believe but the truth is ... PRICES ARE NOT GOING UP THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR IS GOING DOWN!

You and Ben left out the slight detail of a five year "War". These are highly inflationary and any one with a high school knowledge of economics and has never worked for the FED knows "Wars" are expensive and commodity intensive. In order to save the "voter" ... the masses whose futures are tied to the DOW and NASDAQ there is no way government can sit on the sidelines. My point of publishing 1978 FED FOMC meeting minutes was to show how long markets have been manipulated blatantly. Selling gold by the global CBs is only part of the manipulation equation.

Here is a small list of other ways markets have been manipulated:
- Modified CRB weighting and data.
- Falsified BLS jobs reports.
- Elimination of the M3.
- False CPI data.
- Bailouts/buyouts for banks.
- Pension fund bailouts.
- GSE bailouts and exemptions.
- Weighted indexed currencies.
- Swapping and loaning gold and silver.
- Margin requirement adjustments.
- Forced non-delivery options.
- Tariffs.
- High government appointments of HB&B.
- Non-recourse loans.
- Offshore Treasury auction pumping.
- Naked shorting.
- IMF selling announcements.

The US government with HB&B and the FED(one in the same)work 24/7 innovating new ways to seperate you from your money. If you do not think power corrupts and power moves markets then keep pretending. The evidence is overwhelming and if the SEC wasn't bought and paid for by HB&B then maybe "free markets" would have a chance if enough Fortune 500 CEOs and Senators were playing dominoes with WorldCom Bernie!

The point is that if HB&B and Uncle Sam told the truth about the CPI and inflation they'd be out of a job. If you truly believe what CNBC and Ben says about "tame" inflation then put a one at the box labeled "Blind" on your 1040 tax form!

If financial data would stop being weighted, modified, dissected and distorted then CNBC would have no choice but to report the economy is currently experiencing stagflation! Stagnant growth and high inflation! The elite have concocted a plan that is based on lies and they believe if they tell those lies long enough then they have a chance of eating their money cake too!

In considering this analysis, how would you judge KRY whose value is based soley on Las Cristinas? When factoring LC as an active mine, KRY is a total winner, but with the permit status in the air I do not know. Does anyone have any insight into this stock?

Kaimu, I think you misunderstood my point. And as a primer - short term for me is next 3-6 months, while longer term is 3-5 years. This may diverge a little bit from the consensus, I apologize if I was unclear.

Anyways - back to the discussion. I have been reading / posting (some) on this site since back in 2005. During this time period I have been an investor in gold and silver mining stocks. I also believe as you do that the Government creates inflation - it is the only type of "flation" that we can have with the gigantic amount of debt both the government and American population carry on their backs.

The argument I am making is that we can "separate" for purposes of analysis: 1) the underlying economy, 2) federal government policy either vis a vis the Federal Reserve or fiscal policy or even war, and 3) the gold price.

We tend to track the gold price on a daily basis here when 3-6 months probably feels like an eternity to some. And all I am saying is that I do not see the next leg of the precious metals bull market BEGINNING, UNTIL the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates and the Government cooks up some bailout (probably the first of many) for the lending or real estate sector. Another possible indicator to watch as was discussed earlier in this thread is longer term treasury rates which could begin to decline in anticipation of slowing growth.

We are not yet at the point here psychologically where Treasuries go to 8%, and gold to $1,000, Treasuries to 12%, and gold to $2,000, etc., etc. as I understand it worked back in the 1970s (I apologize I was not around then so you will have to fill me in.) It may take several years until the MAJORITY of market participants begin to truly understand what is really going on in our economy.

The reason I'm making this distinction is everday we post comments and studies about how the Humongous Bank and Broker as well as the Fed are manipulating the gold market. I ALSO BELIEVE THIS TO BE TRUE. What I am saying though is it doesn't matter that we know the manipulation exists because the central bank sales information is very difficult to trade / invest off of. And I am instead advocating an alternative framework that may work AT LEAST FOR THE INTERIM ( I will spare you another definition - lets just say six more months - and it will be obvious if the relationship I am putting forth breaks down or doesn't exist at all).

I believe that the readers at this site at least as measured against the average US citizen are in the upper 1% of economic awareness as to what is going on in the USA under the hood (re: inflation and money printing). That implies that 99% of the rest of the population are substantially less informed and at a minimum are following very different investment criteria at this time period.

I would also lump the majority of the mutual fund buy side in Wall Street in this group. I would also venture to argue that they at present control a hell of a lot more capital than we and many other gold bulls have under management. And for those mainstream portfolio managers that do have some of their portfolios in gold I think they are likely to sell those positions during the coming market selloff / panic when the bear market in stocks begins. They will be throwing the baby out with the bathwater to some extent, but also based on the past 25 years of historical knowledge they have learned to equate slowing growth WITH LOWER INFLATION and thus less reason to hold gold.

I agree with you that the current cycle is probably different due to the bull market in commodities that is under way as well as the huge money printing the Federal government has under way. But depending on how widespread this belief is, the scenario may not play out exactly as everyone expects. And if Gold does trade back in the 500s over the coming six months as I expect I am not going to be panicking. That would actually be a CONFIRMATION to me that the investing community is still operating under the bias of the past twenty years regarding disinflation, economic growth, and the reasons for owning gold.

So to summarize:

1) Let's wait for the BUST in the real estate markets (already there), equity markets (not yet), and economy (mixed) before we start banging on the table that gold MUST soar to new highs SOON. and

2) Lets be vigilant in understanding what is likely to drive the next leg up. I personally anticipate as discussed above massive money printing to bail out the economy and the housing market vis a vis easing Fed policy and some other government bailout programs. This in turn might very well produce the dollar collapse we all expect. As gold begins to be treated as an alternative "money" again - that is the only "real money" - that is when we can see a nice 30-40% move in the price again.

Conclusion: Failing economy does not necessarily equal higher gold price. Failing economy PLUS massive Government stimulus and money printing to jumpstart this thing again probably will result in a higher gold price. So let's not confuse the two and let's not assume that the gold market is going to take off at the smallest sign of economic weakness as that certainly doesn't appear to be the case currently.

To me, the reasons are secondary to the price action. I'd rather make money than be right. :)

In any event, POG is very close to triggering an intermediate term sell signal here. That would push my entry off considerably. I "need" to see some positive price action soon in order to re-enter. (I do not play the short side of gold.)

Hello from Germany,

thanks Bill.

Nice rant Kaimu!

ALOHA !!

Soulek1 ... First off this is the CLASSIC STRUGGLE between FALSE WEALTH and REAL WEALTH period. In America today there is an overabundance of spin and promotion of FALSE WEALTH masquerading as REAL WEALTH. There is a huge psychological advantage HB&B has over the masses here in America by classifying gold as purely a commodity and not real money.

What would you say if I told you that over the past 37 years the Fed Funds rate has hardly ever been below 5% until recently during the past few years? Most people alive today are used to rates above 5% not below.

Link: http://www.nowandfutures.com/download/gold_FedFunds.png

During the period 1978 to 1983 we had CPI rates as high as 12% while the POG was rising to $850USD. High inflation in tandem with high POG.

From around 1979 to 1990(eleven years)the Fed Funds rate has averaged above 10%. At its peak in the early 1980s it was closer to 20%. From 1989 to 2000 the POG stayed in a range of around $300USD to $390USD even when the Fed rates tanked from 10% in 1989 to 3.5% in 1994. Thats five years of plunging rates and gold did nothing but flatline at $350USD. Based on that episode one could conclude that low inflation had no effect on gold at all.

If you try to apply economic logic to the modern gold market today it is baffling and confusing. Interest rates rising means POG falls, yet the complete opposite happened in the 1970s. Interest rates falling means POG rises yet in the early 1990s that logic did not apply at all either. The only logical conclusion is that the FED has relegated gold to "commodity status" and with the FED controlling the largest supply of gold in the World they can sell gold to control any possible rise in POG that may pose a problem for their "Goldilocks Economy" and the stability of the US Dollar and US stock markets as well as global fiat confidence.

A quote from wikipedia on gold price manipulation.
"Historically gold was used to back currency; in an economic system known as the gold standard, a certain weight of gold was given the name of a unit of currency. For a long period, the United States government set the value of the US dollar so that one troy ounce was equal to $20.67 ($664.56/kg), but in 1934 the dollar was revalued to $35.00 per troy ounce ($1125.27/kg). By 1961 it was becoming hard to maintain this price, and a pool of US and European banks agreed to manipulate the market to prevent further currency devaluation against increased gold demand."

Known then in the 1960s as the London Gold Pool ... Then in 1971 Nixon ended all the "official open fixing" and now with gold deregulation we have "unofficial hidden fixing" and a vast array of misleading data to support false perceptions of the gold market and the US economy and inflation!

Just an aside on Sept 11, 2001 when the WTC collapsed, the worst attack on America since Pearl Harbor the POG was at $287USD on the next day POG closed at $279USD. The entire US financial system is crippled and gold goes down! Is there any logic in that price move? Also during the London subway bombings the POG also went down.

In conclusion what should people do about the past 20 years of gold price performance? Should we pick and chose what to believe from the past or just go with what the latest Wall Street pundits say should happen? Its like a roulette wheel of logic ... Pick a scenario because I can show you the complete opposite end result at some time in the past. Of course this is how the FED and the US government prefers its minions ... CONFUSED! In essence there is no standard or measure of value in a fiat economy.

Long term GOLD is where its at ...
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Gold_price.png

Every Summer gold and PM shares are traditionally weak and those that manipulate gold know this. Every year there is a POG correction both down and also up. Whats new about all this?

Hi Kaimu,

Thank you for your response. I think you follow what I am saying now. I don't pretend to offer some "unifying" theory for modeling gold price moves.

My goal was more to share with others on this site the framework that I am CURRENTLY applying to analyze the market. Because it tends to run DIRECTLY OPPOSITE to everything else that I read on here I thought it might be valuable as at least one other POSSIBLE EXPLANATION of what is going on with current gold price weakness. Obviously my own opinions probably have NOTHING TO DO with what is REALLY going on in the underlying market, as it could be seasonality or a number of other factors affecting the metal price.

That said I think I can offer some alternative explanations (of course in hindsight) to help reconcile some of the discrepancies that you pointed out. You say that as inflation rates and interest rates went sky high back in the 1970s gold soared with it. I think we can understand this by grouping the cycle of the 1970s into an inflationary boom time for commodities, as well as excessive money printing by the Fed, and the oil price shocks. As the public lost confidence in the Government's ability to control inflation, interest rates went higher and higher and the gold price with them.

The second cycle from 1980s to late 1990s was one of falling inflation well at least lower inflation rates RELATIVE to the previous cycle. These lower interest rates fueled speculation in the stock market and price-earnings multiple expansion. Huge demand for US equities throughout the 1990s in turn fueled demand for dollars to buy those equities with. If you remember - the dollar soared to all time highs in 2000 relative to the Euro and other currencies. If gold truly is the only true money - the public displayed high degrees of confidence in US fiat currency during that time period.

Why would falling interest rates now be potentially bullish for precious metals prices when it wasn't in the 1990s? Because the public and foreigner have begun to lose confidence in the dollar and higher interest rates are probably necessary to prevent capital flight to other high yielding or at least sounder currencies - re: EURO, CH Franc, Yen, etc.

As you correctly point out there are a million different correlations and situations that have existed over past century affecting gold prices - but the only constant has been gold price appreciation relative to fiat as more and more fiat currency has been printed. This is right. That is partially why I am also bullish on precious metals over next 3 - 5 years.

Shoot, even though I am expecting gold correction back into 500s over coming months I am not planning on selling my long term positions, etc.

All I am trying to offer is ONE POSSIBLE explanation for current gold price weakness (and for it to potentially continue over next 3-6 months) that does not require citing to either 1) Gold market manipulation by the Central Bank, or 2) Gold always goes down every summer.

It's interesting that you mention gold and September 11. My Uncle who has invested in gold for years also sees some inherent connection between holding gold for protection against terrorist events. I don't see the connection - maybe Im just a tool/fool - I don't know.

Anyways - the thing is that is NEW about all this is we have all been talking about the next major move in the precious metals for the past twelve months. It hasn't materialized yet. I am patient for it to come - but consistently focusing on conspiracy theories and market manipulation as the reason that a certain move is not happening has ALWAYS lost me money in the past.

We'll see how it plays out. Thanks for your input.

ALOHA !!

Soulek1 ...

You posted this in your last reply: "I think we can understand this by grouping the cycle of the 1970s into an inflationary boom time for commodities, as well as excessive money printing by the Fed, and the oil price shocks."

Why is it you left out the Vietnam War/Cold War as the main source of inflation and a commodity boom, or at least you failed to mention
it? It is very similar to the current inflation and commodity boom we see now due to the Iraq War and the new Cold War. Most won't admit it but Russia and China have been in a military expansion mode for many years now.

Here it is plain and simple. Look at this chart and it explains gold's rise. Ever since the FED took control of our monetary system in 1933 we have seen nothing but monetary inflation.

Link: http://www.nowandfutures.com/download/cpi1800-2004.png

Only during times of war prior to 1933 was inflation rising. Mostly under a gold standard inflation was either at zero or below zero at a negative rate. We have not seen zero inflation since 1950 after WW2, thats a period of 57 years! The longest period of high inflation under the gold standard was only 5 years. That speaks volumes as to why credit and debt aided by monetary inflation has escalated to such lofty levels.

You have to explain "conspiracy theories" since I do not invest time or money into such nonsense and I am surprised you would. What do you consider to be a "conspiracy theory" that you have lost money on? I have no idea how to trade a "conspiracy theory" ... As far as "market manipulation" I am not sure how you trade on that short term. The very notion of "market manipulation" implies you have to be an insider like Goldman Suchs to know for sure which way the trade will go so you can cash in. I have had a very successful track record trading on "market manipulation" over the long term. Its called "betting against the FED and buying and holding gold and silver bullion long term" ... since 2001. Another successful "market manipulation" long term investment is called "buy and hold Exxon and Chevron and collect dividend checks" for 25 years.

I know how it will play out in the long term ... the US government will spend, the FED will print and POG will go up! I don't sweat the short term ... I buy the dips!

Best regards ...

Hi Kaimu,

I had you with me pretty good there for a while but I lost you again. For what it is worth...a few comments:

"Why is it you left out the Vietnam War/Cold War as the main source of inflation and a commodity boom, or at least you failed to mention
it?"

Failed to mention it but I agree it is a good analogy.

"Here it is plain and simple. Look at this chart and it explains gold's rise. Ever since the FED took control of our monetary system in 1933 we have seen nothing but monetary inflation."

This point focuses on the absolute inflation level. I think even Bill would concede though that US equities can be preferable during a time period where the economy is creating real wealth faster than the Fed is printing money - i.e. - those time periods where REAL GDP is accelerating and the RATE of inflation GROWTH is falling.

"You have to explain "conspiracy theories" since I do not invest time or money into such nonsense and I am surprised you would."

From Wikipedia - "A conspiracy theory attempts to attribute the ultimate cause of an event or chain of events (usually political, social, or historical events), or the concealment of such causes from public knowledge, to a secret, and often deceptive plot by a covert alliance of powerful or influential people or organizations. Many conspiracy theories claim that major events in history have been dominated by conspirators who manipulate political happenings from behind the scenes."

A conspiracy theory that I think we are falling victim to on this board is that we are attributing the failure of gold to break out and hit new highs over the past 12 months to a "conspiracy" by the Federal Reserve and the US government along with other International Central Banks to suppress the price. I do not argue that their dealings are "secret" and not transparent. I don't even argue that they are attempting to manipulate the gold price through central bank sales of bullion.

What I am saying though is that it is difficult if not impossible to TRADE / INVEST off of that information. In other words, and I speak for myself - it is pointless for me to wake up in the morning and see Gold down $10 an ounce and conclude that the Fed is selling gold again, or if gold is instead going up in price conclude that the Fed has stopped selling.

"What do you consider to be a "conspiracy theory" that you have lost money on? I have no idea how to trade a "conspiracy theory"

Back in the fall of 2005 when I lost my virginity in the gold market so to speak I had been trading gold mining stocks in the late summer early fall and been producing good results for myself - this was also during the time that Katrina hit. Each month a higher and higher inflation statistic resulting from the higher oil prices was hitting. I built up particularly large positions ahead of an important CPI release. The CPI number exceeded even my most pessimistic estimates and I was sure that my gold mining shares along with the metal would rocket that same day. To my shock, gold opened down and traded lower over the next several weeks. For me at that time it was useless to believe that the Fed was holding the gold price down. What did make a lot of sense to ME at the time though was the REST of the participants in the gold market were operating on some different framework than I was. Principally that inflation could be TOO high - so high that the Fed would be forced to raise rates which would in turn create an EXPECTATION in the market of lower inflation (whether merited or not) - resulting in lower gold price.

"As far as "market manipulation" I am not sure how you trade on that short term. The very notion of "market manipulation" implies you have to be an insider like Goldman Suchs to know for sure which way the trade will go so you can cash in. I have had a very successful track record trading on "market manipulation" over the long term. Its called "betting against the FED and buying and holding gold and silver bullion long term" ... since 2001. Another successful "market manipulation" long term investment is called "buy and hold Exxon and Chevron and collect dividend checks" for 25 years."

I agree that Chevron and Exxon have been great stocks over the past 25 years. I miss the "market manipulation" connection there though?

Also - I think it's interesting that you cherry pick the 2001 start date which is also closely aligned with the beginning of the gold market in commodities re: somewhere between 1998-2002. What you did not say is that if you had bet against the Fed and bought and held gold and silver from 1987 to 2000 - you would have lost money consistently over that time period. The discussion I have put forth over past several posts is some hindsight explanation of previous gold market cycles and variables affecting the gold price.

The argument I am hearing from you (correct me if I'm wrong) - is that the Fed is always printing money, so buy gold, because price of gold will go up. Under that logic you would have bought more gold every year from 1982 onward and continued to lose more and more money until the price bottomed.

I am guessing that you have some reason for accumulating larger positions in metals around 2001, what was difference about that time period that made you want to be a "long term" investor at that point compared to oh say - 1991?

The government was printing money back in 1991. We were involved in a war in 1991. The government was also printing money in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, etc., etc. - every year as you point out.

"I know how it will play out in the long term ... the US government will spend, the FED will print and POG will go up! I don't sweat the short term ... I buy the dips!"

I agree that this is the correct way to be positioned over the next five years. It is how I am making bets myself, I guess just for similar but slightly different reasons.

Thanks for the input.