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June 13, 2007

Cara’s Daily Commentary, Wed., June 13, 2007, 8:23 AM

Market Chat

In Week #9 (the WIR dated March 3), the yield on the US 10-year Treasury Note had fallen to just 4.48 pct and bondholders were a very happy lot.

Stockholders that week, however, were dispirited because the US broad equity market had been crunched ($DJX -4.2 pct, $SPX -4.4 pct, $COMP -5.9 pct and $RUT -6.2 pct, all W/W). Ten of ten sectors were down (Utilities XLU -1.34 pct was the week’s best performer; Telecom IYZ -2.90 pct was second best; most were down over -4.8 pct that week. Of the Dow 30 stocks, only Merck MRK +2.9 pct and AIG +1.1 pct were gainers W/W.

That was the week that the China equity market came unglued as monetary policy tightened. The FXI index dropped -9.8 pct on the week. International currencies were so volatile, I wrote in my journal, “Turmoil!”

I also wrote in my notes, “Massive switch from stocks to bonds. Huge inversion in the yield curve is pointing to R”, which meant recession.

The Dow was 12114 and $GOLD was 644.10. $XAU at 132.35 had plunged -9.24 pct and the GDX ETF crashed along with it -9,92 pct. $COPPER dropped -5.12 pct that week. The Yen ($XJY) was up a startling +3.73 pct W/W and traders were thinking maybe the Japanese Carry Trade was over at the end of that month/quarter.

What happened next was remarkable. The Fed, HB&B and Humungous Private Equity Corp (HPEC) stepped up to the plate and begun a series of humungous corporate take-overs and bids based on huge credit expansion in the US financial system. The first was HPEC’s bid for Texas Utilities. My notes read, “TXU big story; insiders $42 billion”.

The following week, the DJIA rallied to a gain of +1.34 pct; 22 of 30 Dow stocks had gained; bonds dropped sharply (as yields lifted from +7 to +12 basis points); and there was more talk of humungous deals in the works.

The week after that (#11, March 17), however, was another test of the bond cycle peak as yields dropped again, stocks fell back, only XLU of my 10 equity sectors had gained, and 22 Dow stocks dropped, as the DJIA closed at 12110. I wrote in my notes, “US broad market not likely to recover past 50D MA >>> lower lows and highs (expected)”

In Week #12, March 24, I wrote, “$ out of Long-term bonds.” The yield on the 30-year T-Bond jumped +11 bp. The four major US equity indexes that week lifted between +3.1 pct and +4.0 pct; ten of ten sectors were up; 29 Dow stocks were up and one was flat, zero down. The $XAU jumped +3.4 pct to 137.78. $GOLD was up to 657.30. More deals from HPEC, and more deal talk, rumors, etc.

Week #13 (March 31) was another downer as, in my ETF sector watchlist, only Energy (XLE) was up, barely +0.10 pct W/W as Industrials (XLI) and Semiconductors (SMH) got hammered. Only four Dow stocks were up. But $GOLD was now up to 669.00 and I wrote in my notes, “Long end bond market is selling off >>> inflation worry.”

April, however, did not bring showers, unless you want to count the proliferation of HPEC deals, and the run-up in credit expansion the Fed permitted to help these deals happen.

So on April 7, 10 of 10 ETFs and 24 of 30 Dow stocks were up. $GOLD jumped to 679.40. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury Note jumped +10bp to 4.73 pct.

Now I happen to be using the rate table at Yahoo Finance, which is produced by ValuBond. I have not been using Bloomberg, which has substantially different numbers. Not being a bond trader, I am not into Bloomberg. The data at Yahoo Finance is the same data used for the charts at BillCara2.com.

On April 14 (Week #15), only the Financials (XLF) dropped, as I noted, “$$ out of the 2-year Treasury and into cash”. $GOLD lifted again to 689.90. The yield on the 10-year was now up to 4.74 pct, up from 4.48 pct in six weeks, and I started to opine that once that yield crossed the +5.0 pct level the equity market would get shaken up (as equity yields could not compete). I also said that I believed a 5.25 pct yield on the US 10-year would be probably the tipping point.

I might have called it the Cassandra Crossing, which refers to a movie classic from the 1970’s, where a European train moves forward to an unstable bridge, and the passengers fearing they will die in a crash start trying to unhook rail cars to lessen the weight. I don’t recall how that movie ended, but often when capital markets seem to get moving toward some possible crisis point, I wait for the usual media references to the Cassandra Crossing, so I’ll mention it here first.

On April 21 (Week #16), 10 of 10 ETFs and 24 Dow stocks were up, but the goldminers ($XAU) started selling off – Tuesday through Thursday that week – as I noted, “Govt is saying they will remove risk today and pass it along to future generations… scare tactic to cause profit taking in the golds.”

The next four weeks saw humungous selling of gold by central banks in Europe – the Bank of Spain sold material amounts of their remaining holdings – and the gold price dropped, but interestingly the bond yield curve was lifting and traders were talking more inflation, so the falling gold price was incongruous. The humungous deals continued though as credit expansion from the Fed and HB&B helped. Equities were thriving as the ETF’s went +7, +9, +7 and +9 out of 10 up those four weeks. The DJIA had moved to record highs of 13556 and by May 19 the talk about town was how quickly we’d see Dow 14,000.

But the past three and a half weeks have been a teeter-totter as prices have see-sawed to a current DJIA reading of 13295, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury is listed by ValuBond at 4.95 pct (5.32 pct by Bloomberg). Cassandra Crossing dead ahead.

As I first looked at Asia-Pacific and European equity markets this morning, there was a definite red sky. Sailors know this as a bad sign: “Red sky at night, sailors delight; in the morning take warning”.

I continue to say that if, as and when interest rates/yields rise here, the equity market and gold is in trouble. We are now awaiting word from the Fed and other central bankers as to their game plan. If they intend to continue to tighten monetary policy here, then equity yields cannot compete with bonds and the stocks will fall.

Nobody knows how strong the underpinnings are to the bridge ahead. Unfortunately.

Yesterday was a tough day as bond yields popped and earnings yields cannot cope with the new discount rate, so stocks sold off. All ten of the equity sectors dropped, the Utilities of course being the biggest loser (XLU -1.63 pct) and the DJIA fell -130 points (-0.97 pct), while the NASDAQ Composite dropped -0.87 pct.

For the US industry groups, the biggest losers were Airlines ($XAL -2.1 pct), REITs ($DJR -1.73 pct), Paper ($DJUSPP -1.71 pct), Broker-Dealers ($XBD -1.69 pct) and Transports ($TRANQ -1.67 pct).

Economics Calendar and Reports

Today and for the rest of the week, there are some very important economic datapoints coming up in the US and Europe.

Economic calendar from Econoday

Econoday prior week's international economic report.

Global Equity Markets Review

The US market is roiled. In some other countries, tempers are flaring. But, I continue to believe the markets will calm down, or to be more correct, I believe the markets will be calmed down by HB&B. For now.

Increasingly, these shocks to prices are happening. Typically, that is a sign that markets are reversing course. We'll have to see. It could be that the 2007 Bear market has begun.

US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Here’s the closing data of the Asia-Pacific equity markets.. Except for China’s Shanghai Composite, it is a matter of all red arrows across the Asia-Pacific region today.

Here’s the chart of the Japanese Nikkei 225.. The Nikkei Dow dropped just 28 points (-0.16 pct) today, but I continue to b concerned that this important equity market might lead global equities south.

Here’s the chart of the Shanghai equity market.. Shanghai further consolidated following the huge loss of a week ago Monday, and has moved sharply ahead. Reuters, yesterday, reported that consumer inflation in China has reached 27 month highs. The equity market was still up +2.56 pct to 4176.48.

Here’s the chart of the Bombay India Sensex 30 index.. The very volatile Indian equity market had another trip south. This seems now to be a journey. Today the Sensex dropped -0.91 pct.

Here’s the latest session data for the bourses of Europe. There is a broad sell-off in Europe today (as of 7:52am ET), although the FTSE 100 has recovered a bit. Reuters is attributing the concerns to rising yields (ie, inflation concerns).

Bonds & Yields Review

Here is the T-Bond chart.

Bond prices dropped again yesterday. The T-Bond closed at 105.5625, down from 106.71875. So yields are continuing to rise, and reaching a crisis point.

Forex Review

Here is the $USD chart at the close of the prior session.

The $USD (at 7:25am ET) is at 83.157, up from 82.798 at this time yesterday. The $USD continued to get a powerful bump in the past few hours, which will likely put more downward pressure on precious metals.

Commodities Review

The $CRB closed yesterday at 309.71.

Here is the $CRB Index chart.

Oil Review

At 8:00am ET this morning, the e-MiNY Jul-07 contract for Crude Oil was 65.150, down from 65.875, yesterday at about this time, but consistent with trading for the past few days.

Here is the e-miNY July-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold at 8:01am ET today is 645.28, down -5 from yesterday morning at this time. It has been a tough week for the Gold Bulls.

Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.

At 8:03am ET this morning, the Spot silver (AG) was 12.95, down from 13.09 yesterday morning, but up in the past few hours, like gold.

Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.

This morning at 8:04am ET, Spot platinum is at 1275, down from yesterday’s 1288 at this point, but also up close to +10 in the past two hours.

Here is the Recent Spot Platinum chart.

Palladium (at 8:06am ET) is at 359 is down from 363 at this time yesterday. It has dropped this far in the past two hours.

Here is the Recent Spot Palladium chart.

Precious Metals Stocks Review

$XAU (goldminers index) was soft again yesterday, but nothing as bad as the overall market.

As I have written, “With the ETF’s today, it is rather easy to hammer this market, but in retrospect, the goldminers are making good profits, and new resources are not being discovered or brought into production as fast as reserves are depleting. The price of gold and hence the goldminers will rise in the long term… The long base pattern for the goldminers, stretching back to the beginning of 2006 is a powerful one, like a spring coil ready to pop. I would feel more confident when $XAU moves into the 144 level. As you can see on the Weekly chart, once $XAU rises above the 150-155 level, there is little to stop this index from rallying to the long cycle high of 171.71 that was set in May 2006.”

There are many analysts who hold the view that gold stocks ought to be sold here. I don’t share that view. In the Comments section again today, I’ll try to add specific remarks if I get the time. I look at KRY below.

Here are the $XAU charts, courtesy of StockCharts.com:

Interactive Chart of Daily and Weekly US Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Daily and Weekly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

ABX NEM GG GFI KGC AU HMY AUY BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Crystallex (KRY) was dropped -4.5 pct yesterday. Money flow has been net positive, but I suspect that as small retail equity accounts are being sold (sometimes with margin calls) this is the type of stock that gets pitched. If it drops below US$3.00, then a purchase would put the buyer into the stock at much less average cost than the vast majority of traders. Nothing has changed with the story. Well, actually, I feel that Pres. Chavez in Venezuela is taking political steps to consolidate his power there, and many of the wealthy class are leaving. If true, that is a change.


The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

This data is supplied every day by the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc.

Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 gainers. Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List gainers. Yesterday in a flat market there were still 25 of the Cara 100 that moved up at least +1.0 pct.

Please note that I dropped ADSK from the Cara 100, but have not yet changed the table at Knobias.

The was another big move in the shares of OptionsXpress (OXPS), which continues to catch some nice buy orders (see the volume change table below).

The big losers again included (see below) Nucor (NUE) and Hovnanian (HOV) along with miners CVRD (RIO) and Silver Wheaton (SLW). Actually Silver Wheaton is a pure silver royalty company.

Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 losers. Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List losers.

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the previous session. Three new highs but now we have three new lows (HOV, WFMI, and SBUX.

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes in the previous session. This is a good list to watch anytime markets start trending in the extreme. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes. That btw is called Money Flow.


Here is the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks

Here, from “Chris”, are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30:

RSI > 70 (1)

RSI < 30 (12 of 15)

“Chris” takes this data from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data (from Worden). I ought to be able to introduce a Wilder Smoother to this data in upcoming months.

Here, from “Sergey”, are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for the previous session. As “David” is on course this week, “Sergey” has kindly taken over.

In Focus


Other Recent Wall Street upgrades

Other Recent Wall Street downgrades

There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website is updated later in the morning.

Community Chat

Sorry, I have not had time to discuss South American Copper & Gold (TSX: SAG). It is really no big deal. I just feel that at C$0.05 (ie, 5 cents) and below, it's a fair deal. The company has three fairly low grade but large copper-gold porphyry properties in Chile and a new management. It is a new story now, but management needs to get financing and then do some IR and then a cut-back of the stock probably 10 to 1. There is no drilling underway at this point. The winter season in the mountains there, and the lack of capital, makes that impossible. But this will be a possible good stock play for the punters down the road.I have no position.

Have a great day, but watch for that bridge crossing ahead.


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 13, 2007 08:23:39 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary

Discourse

moin from germany,

no levelling off so far........ the good news is that according to the FED the impact is "contained"...... :-(

U.S. Mortgage Foreclosure Filings Rise 90% in May

There were 176,137 notices of default, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions last month, led by California, Florida and Ohio, the Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure data said in a report today. ......The filings rose 19 percent from April.

Posted by: jmf [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 8:43 AM [link]

Watch your gambling stocks...

"Chinese authorities announced in recent weeks that they plan to limit the amount of individual Macau visitor visas by increasing their issuance times and reducing the number of allowed monthly visits from two to one, according to Macau press reports."

"Authorities also are reportedly looking to cancel the issuance of business visas given to political figures and members of government companies, according to the reports."

"The visa issue appears to most directly apply to residents of the Guangdong region, one of the richest provinces in China, which funnels many visitors to Macau."

http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/bricks-and-mortar/10362127.html

Posted by: JIM [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 8:49 AM [link]

Dear Bill,

Any morning without your commentary (such as Monday) and I feel like I'm tragically missing somethng. It's worse than running out of coffee.

My opinion: Any opportunity to buy KRY below 3 bucks American will be momentary and highly profitable.

Chris

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 8:56 AM [link]

Bonds yields falling, equities rising. Bond yields are the current object of attention versus February and March when it was all about the Yen and carry trade. Lets see how long this bond yield/equities relationship holds.

Posted by: IM [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 10:07 AM [link]

"Tough week for gold bulls-" yeah.

If you're long-term, here's a timely reminder from Todd Harrison:

"The single most important element to successful money management? Synching your time horizon to your risk profile. Big-picture thoughts mean little when actively trading, and near-term noise shouldn't shake long-term positioning."

If you're short-term, an update on Hulbert's Goldtiming Newsletter Sentiment Index can be found inside Peter Brimelow's June 12 column: http://tinyurl.com/2nhoe2

"The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, which represents the average gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold-timing newsletters, stood at a reading of 21.4% on Tuesday night. That's not dramatically low - gold exposure can go well into negative territory. But it's a change from the over-enthusiasm (50%) that Mark Hulbert thought gold-timers were displaying earlier this month, when gold reached $671 See June 5 column
Bottom line: gold is no longer under serious contrary opinion pressure."

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 10:37 AM [link]

Brimelow has a piece on MarketWatch on Gold conspiracy theories. Is the POG manipulated? You bet it is! He feels that the evidence is undisputable with recent action.

Posted by: agaunv [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 10:44 AM [link]

Brimelow has a piece on MarketWatch on Gold conspiracy theories. Is the POG manipulated? You bet it is! He feels that the evidence is undisputable with recent action.

Posted by: agaunv [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 10:44 AM [link]

That's a good one.
The Fed just came out with their currency manipulators list, where of course they should list themselves first!

So, if the USD is manipulated (duh) and gold is priced in USD, then it stands to reason gold will be manipulated along with the USD.

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 11:03 AM [link]

I notice "the sky is falling" commentary on gold over the past while. Gold like everything else will fall from time to time but I have been buying steady over last 30 days. I can't get that gold bug out of my system. Gold and Real Estate will last forever.

Posted by: Horatio [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 11:31 AM [link]

I also read the "Mortgage Foreclosure Filings Rise 90% in May" article. I looked a little further and found another article that said that while most ARMs are tied in some way (ie with some added "cushion") to changes in the LIBOR rate, most fixed mortgage rates (at signing) are tied in some way to the 10yr Treasury.

Putting the two thoughts above leads suspicious minds to think. Let's see now: Most people buy homes in the Summer months; Many people will therefore think about refinancing their ARM to a lower Fixed Rate mortgage this Summer especially if increased ARMs rates are threatening foreclosure.

Hmmm. Humongous Banks presumably "assist" by buying Bonds (or not). It would be mighty tempting, wouldn't it, to "assist" bonds in moving to a higher rate just in time to "assist" people in moving from ARMs to Fixed. If so, then perhaps the higher 10yr Treasury rates might be predicted to last at some elevated level until the Fall when a drop in rates might help the upcoming pre-Election season.

Nah. Just foolish and unfounded suspicions.


Posted by: spot [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 11:37 AM [link]

Re manipulation:

I don't think any of us has a problem with inefficient markets, as exploiting inefficiencies in the market is what we try to do as traders. If you spot a trend, think current prices fail to discount future demand, and you make the right call, then you deserve to profit to the extent you place money on that call.

I don't even necessarily have a problem with market manipulation if it falls within the realm of the Fed "doing its job."

However, I have nothing but disgust for those who profit unfairly (often to an obscene degree) from privileged information, which invariably leads to delusional states of social and intellectual superiority. "Invariably" because how else can you look in the mirror?

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 11:41 AM [link]

2nd_ave, good observation. It's funny how those who are stealing from the market will paint themselves as brilliant traders.

A young guy was just busted in NY. He was taking positions in pennies. Then he was stealing or setting up bogus online trading accounts via identity theft. He used those accounts to bid up his pennies and then sold them from his own account. Made a couple million I think. Maybe less.

But his MySpace page was all about bragging about his stock trading prowess. Yeah, way to go buddy.

I guess he just thought too small, so he goes to jail. HB&B does something similar and they get to "self-regulate."

Posted by: MikeNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 12:20 PM [link]

Mike,

Here's an excerpt from the SF Chronicle about an investment banker who was convicted of a hit-and-run fatality. Note that letters of support from his friends focused on "praising his business acumen." The judge picked her words carefully when nailing him.

Full story at http://tinyurl.com/2mv3ea

Superior Court Judge Barbara Zuniga castigated Harbert's "illogical and contrived" testimony, saying that although she had read letters of support from his friends praising him for his business acumen, none of them was present in court to see his "very shameful display of contrived testimony," including his professed belief that he had hit a deer. "You got lost along the way, sir," said Zuniga, calling Harbert "arrogant and self-absorbed."

"Sir, you have lost sight of the fact of one of our basic tenets of our society, which is human decency. You did not display this to the victim. You left her dying on the side of the road, sir," she said.

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 12:43 PM [link]

Hey, I read that book back in the 80's. "Bonfire of the Vanities." Tom Wolf.

Here's the guy who just got busted. Love the quote from his MySpace page.

New York Post:
http://tinyurl.com/3aqhce

"When it comes to stocks, I'm in there like swimwear."

Ohhh boy.

Posted by: MikeNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 12:50 PM [link]

Another example:

How is this not simply stealing? They were given millions to do one thing, and simply decided to do another thing with it. But they get to 'settle.' You or I would get to 'go to jail.'

From today's NY Times:

Morgan Stanley Settles Metals Lawsuit

By REUTERS
Published: June 13, 2007

Morgan Stanley will pay $4.4 million to settle a class-action lawsuit with brokerage clients who bought precious metals and paid storage fees, according to a court filing.

The proposed settlement, which is subject to approval by the Federal District Court in Manhattan, includes $1.5 million in cash and other benefits valued at about $2.9 million, according to a court filing on Monday.

The suit, filed in August 2005, asserted that Morgan Stanley told clients it was selling them precious metals that they would own in full and that the company would store.

But Morgan Stanley either made no investment specifically on behalf of those clients, or made entirely different investments of lesser value and security, according to the complaint.

Posted by: MikeNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 1:02 PM [link]

Dow, Nasdaq and S&P trading perfect inverse to the 10 yr bond yield.

Posted by: IM [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 1:50 PM [link]

The question on the front page of Yahoo! Finance today: What asset class offers the greatest potential return for the next year?
Stocks
Bonds
Cash
Commodities

Stocks the overwhelming winner picked by 60% of correspondants.

Looks like Paulson and his cronies are finally accomplishing what they set out to do: suck Joe and Suzy Public into the market so they can cash in on the final melt-up before they let this sucker go. It took awhile, but they are a persistent lot of crooks, eh?

Posted by: GTT [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 2:02 PM [link]

2nd ave,

Are you buying more gold miners on weakness..well at least at what has been support?

I'm tempted and just took half position in a new,for me, junior. I'm surprised not more discussin of Bill's rich filled data post on the miners.

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 2:55 PM [link]

i didn't want to jinx my short-term positions, but since you ask, i have added to them substantially...already in and out of a couple trades (mainly goldcorp, which has outperformed the this week)...adding wgdf (which has weathered the downturn well, and is living up to bill's buy and forget about it for a few years comment) to long-term holdings...which juniors look good to you?

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 3:07 PM [link]

I asked yesterday and I'm asking today...Could someone please explore Bill's list of miners (his previous post) and please rank these babies according to some criteria or other?

Chris

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 3:28 PM [link]

A question for 2nd_ave and a comment to shark_attack
The question;
To 2nd_ave are you buying options or actual shares?

When I saw that data, I thought the same thing...gee I sure wish someone would tell me which is best. Then I realized that the most common thread here is doing it for yourself. So I grabbed a calc and divided some numbers and multiplied some numbers and I found 2-3 out of the list that are more valuable...to me using my risk and time frame, price point etc,etc. My point is you need to do your oun work then throw it out here for discussion. IMO. Try it. And someday I'll figure out how to paragraph
Thanks.
Peace.
Gray

Posted by: Photogray [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 3:47 PM [link]

2nd ave

Looking and experiencing how these trade I can understand now why many,i presume, investors stay away from this sector. Very volatile...but nicely serves traders which I am not. i posted some thoughts on my short list on yesterday's miners thread. It seems reasonable to go by the analyst's market outlook ratings. For seniors, hands down, kinross which i already have a full position. For juniors, just by the list on the thread....eldorado gold corp. ..narrowed down by relative strenght/price sensitivity to gld. GFI was dumped a few weeks ago. WGDF is the most interesting as it looks to be in strong hands and Bill's commentary. Others in my basket: grz,slw,uxg and eza. Except for gfi...no trading done. Considering that gold corp is listed as outperform with data to support, looks to be the best bargain. Perhaps its debt, if I recall, is high. Any thoughts on why GG is lagging? Gammon is also an outperformer...and lagging badly...but nice positive divergence with rsi/7.

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 3:54 PM [link]

Of Bill's goldminers post, the ones that caught my eye were:

Greatest estimated increase in production: Gammon Lake, El Dorado, Golden Star, Yamana, Kinross

Greatest projected increase in EPS 2006 - 2009:
Golden Star, El Dorado, Centerra, Peter Hambro, Gold Fields (Yamana and Gammon Lake are NAP)

Lowest Cash Costs (2007): Hecla, Agnico Eagle, Yamana, Meridian, Peter Hamnro (These should weather any major correction better than the others IMO).

Posted by: moab [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 3:55 PM [link]

Just looked at the hourly chart on DIA and IYT. Seems to be some 2:00pm buying or short covering. Either way, the rest of the week will be a test of systems and self-control.

Posted by: spot [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 3:56 PM [link]

Chris and Gray,

The other option is to defer to the experts at BMO by just eyeballing their % price appreciation projections from current (their chart) to target price:

Major picks: Kinross, Barrick, Goldcorp and Goldfields. Intermediate picks: Gammon, Golden Star and Eldorado.

I didn't use a calculator so, the order may be a little off. I'm already long Kinross, Goldcorp and Eldorado. My head full of facts says to have a look at Gammon and Golden Star if I can free up some money.

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:00 PM [link]

Regarding the BMO charts: if you look at the BMO Precious metals fund you'll see that their largest holding is Aurelian (ARU).

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:04 PM [link]

I had posted this new Gold index on friday. Claymore Investments Inc. is the 1st to create an etf around it and its trading currently.

http://tinyurl.com/3c9tuv

Here are the companies that track in the index
http://tinyurl.com/2o2ucc

Ticker CMW on TSX. http://tinyurl.com/2kc943

Thoughts?

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:06 PM [link]

Gray,
Nicely said. I'm in the dark myself, but I'll take a stab.

Did anyone see John Mauldlin's bit on gold miners? If so, does he have a point, or is it mostly a promotion by his guest commentators for clients. In a nutshell, it shows where the biggest return of investment is with the juniors and that the next big gold discovery has got to be close with all the pent up exploration expenditure ramping up. Of course, you have to know who has the best shot.

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:08 PM [link]

Bill cited Valgold recently for punters. I've been watching it on a daily basis. I believe when Bill recommended it most recently, it was around 46 cents, but then it quickly climbed to into the 60 cent range. It has weathered the downturn in gold very well I think. Has anyone taken a stab at this one? Any thoughts about this, such as appreciation potential or undue risks?

Posted by: aucourant [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:18 PM [link]

nyu

i've liked claymore as a family of etfs. i went to your url news link. So many of their etfs are not being traded domestically/u.s. Do you have a u.s. brokerage and take positions on the tsx with any of their etfs?

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:19 PM [link]

Thanks Fred
I narrowed my choices down to Gammon and Kinross also. I am holding back till, as Bill describes, an indicator (or several) turn back upward. I bought early into GFI and Slw and today choose caution before adding to PMs. Tomorrow I may choose diferently. I am trying to develop a style/discipline/process. As I have other long positions I am never straying too far for the sell button. I am also trying to wrap my brain around options to see if that has a place in my tool box.
peace.
Gray

Posted by: Photogray [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:19 PM [link]

Jasper,

I just read John Mauldin's "Outside The Box". It's just a promotion, in the same category as Grandich, VanEeden and Casey promotions. There may be value in subscribing to these services....or not.

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:31 PM [link]

Aucourant. Bill mentioned Val back in mid March. I did DD and got in at .28. I recently sold at .64 as it passed my 100% rule. They are continuing their drilling with fairly good results. I will get back in on next pull back.

Posted by: Horatio [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:32 PM [link]

The bear market commencement appears to be on hold.

Posted by: IM [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:39 PM [link]

Horatio,

My relationship with VAL is similar to yours. I'm looking to get back in. At what price would you re-enter assuming no material change to what is currently a good story?

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:42 PM [link]

jasper i have not. i am thinking about it though. many here mentioned as interest rates rise we may see a pullback in gold and equities, before gold goes higher. I am looking to find the best investment to do so while i wait for the pullback. my primary strategy was to go long wgdf and uxg on the next pullback. but i might brake up the gold portfolio into 1/3 and add an etf to both junior minor picks.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 4:51 PM [link]

Long calls on GFI, KGC & KRY
and positions in SLW and AUY (longer-term hold and/or trade); positions a tad underwater currently.

Big believer in IBD/Wm O'Neill 7% stop rule - I sometimes set % higher at onset of trade depending on relationship of price and volatility (ATR). Once set I usually take my medicine and go on to the next opportunity.

RE AUY: We'll see if the cost leverage applied to the production estimates will be worth the current 59% NAV premium . Watching 2009/2010 leaps to pick up on a dip - would convert 1/2 of my $ position if the stars align.

Rob

Posted by: RobBoss [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 5:02 PM [link]

WFMI is in the accumulation zone, but I can't help thinking it is not worth 25x next year's EPS estimate.

Posted by: moab [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 5:05 PM [link]

1. buying shares, not calls/leaps.
2. mainly gdx, with separate positions in slw/gg/kgc/gfi, and a little uxg/wgdf/kry. i agree that gfi has not been looking good lately but that's why i'm buying...if you research back in this blog you'll find many positive aspects to gfi, including the fact that holders of the stock are not retail investors but institutions.
3. bulk of my positions are long-term (flexible on the time > when the rsi on any of the positions tell me to exit, or 2009/2010). capped the long term position (which includes oil stocks as well) at 25% of my portfolio, so if it all goes down by 50% (which the worst i can see happening), then i'm down 12.5% overall.
4. i like fred's idea of letting BMO (or fill in the blank with any other analyst[s] you like) pick them for you. i'm sticking with a combination of those in the cara 100 and those i want to bet on for various reasons.
5. short-term positions will vary, but pretty much sticking to the same.

if you agree that gold may hit 4 digits (and oil 3), and that no one knows when/how that will happen, then i think long-term is the only way to guarantee participation. with a 25% holding (and if i expand the position, it will only be well on the way up), then i feel i have a 12.5% downside risk with good exposure to major potential upside surprises.


Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 5:21 PM [link]

Fred. I am still studying the recent drill results from the three satellite gold zones. They are once again drilling in the main zone and I believe the results there should be encouraging. I am ready to get back in at .55 but that might be wishful thinking.

Posted by: Horatio [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 5:33 PM [link]

Horatio,

I'm looking at .55 also. I expect more good news and think that the stock would have run away if the market wasn't so scary right now. I almost chased .57 today but, exercised discipline. With its volatility VAL could see .50 again or it could run off into the sunset. I'll try to split the difference and grab it at .55. I've made some costly decisions recently, averaging down CNU, EVR and IPR. I'm dangerously overweight in all three at this point. Obviously I feel they present very good risk/reward value but, I really want to get back to normal positions. I got crushed between 2000 and 2002 in tech by averaging down and should know better.

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 5:57 PM [link]

nygrad...which etf are you considering? Will it be a tdx/claymore one? Will it be from a u.s. brokerage. At Fidelity, I can trade many canadian tickers. The challenge is having a chart to track price...that overcomes the limitations..it is a new etf and fidelity's charts do not include canadian tickers. With a benchmark index on stockcharts, I presume this can be done, if one can trust that the etf is doing what is intended.

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 6:06 PM [link]

2nd ave,

Nicely thought out. I hope it's not a bad omen if I think what you says makes sense.

Going ahead could be a challenge...as I think someone else said...to our system and self control.

Gdx. I’m ambivalent about it when i look at it on a chart compared to others.

gdx keeps getting pulled down by the laggards and thus, flat lining. These gold miners are an extremely diverse bunch. Large spread on price performance. Today's rising star is tomorrow’s falling star. Which is kind of in keeping with speculative investments.

Am I being too short sighted to think that half positions need to be traded in order to manage this sector, and at least outperform the broader mkt?

I would gladly hit the easy button vis a vis a miner's trust fund.

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 6:09 PM [link]

re: KRY chart

i wonder if that guy can now see why holding KRY overnight for a $.15/sh scalp reflected poor R/R. probably not :)

i think that eventually KRY gets their permit - if i was gonna snatch the mine/property/company, i'd wait until the infrastructure was completed.

Posted by: QQQBall [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 7:49 PM [link]

QQQBall,

Since I am "that guy" you reference above, I guess I should just ask you...What the heck are you talking about? I haven't lost money in KRY.

Chris


Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 8:03 PM [link]

David Patch wrote today about an issue that affects us all, but very few understand. It’s about naked short selling. For those of you who have the time to delve into the issue, I think you’ll find David doing yeoman’s work on our behalf.

He says:

“Today, in an open public hearing at the Securities and Exchange Commission the Commission staff, specifically Annette Nazareth, Roel Campos, and Kathy Casey presented to the witnesses their lack understanding of basic security law and market operations. The staff informed the abused public investor and abused public companies how and why each has been thrown under the bus to protect the revenues of financial services operations functioning outside of US securities laws.

Each Commissioner, in their opening remarks towards a vote on short sale reforms, continued to misunderstand the legalities of a short squeeze in the capital markets. Volatility of short squeezes due to the close out of persistent trade fails, fails that should not exist in the first place, is not illegal. They are the market response to a previous market reaction. The short squeeze created by the forced settlement of trades is as legal as the short sale itself. The Commission is actually manipulating a market to adjust laws otherwise.

If a member elects to accumulate fails for a house account or client trade activities, that member is fully liable for the financial implications of such a business decision made. Unsuspecting investors are not to be used as the tokens for their actions.

The Commission staff all but admitted that the implementation of a 5th Amendment violating grandfather clause created in 2004/2005 was done to specifically prevent the volatility of a short squeeze against those that may have had a free pass on market manipulation for better than a decade. The daft panel identified that the settlement failures may be abusive, may be used as a vehicle to depress the price of a security but, to force the closure of these abusive trades may increase the price of a security and that is not what our market or the investing public need.

Hence the 2004/2005 grandfather provision into Regulation SHO.

But today the Commission staff voted unanimously to repeal this illegal provision created only recently. For the past 2.5 years the Commission has monitored the volatility index of the grandfather clause and has determined that to repeal it will not have the volatility impact on the capital markets they originally expected and therefore it is risk less to repeal it. The Commission staff admitted that the grandfather clause was responsible for the persistence of settlement failures and was responsible for the masking of abusive short selling, but at least it prevented the short squeeze from financially impacting those manipulating the marketplace.

…Since the SEC fails to want to address the market making exemptions and the abuses of the bona fide market making activities I propose a law that requires the following:

Any market maker with an obligation to close out a fails to deliver can not make a market in that security at the time of the close out requirement. It is a clear conflict of interest to be under an obligation to purchase shares to settle a pre-existing fail and be allowed to control the offer of that same security using the market making exemption of bona-fide market making. To do so allow the market maker to create an appearance of a depressed market and then buy into sellers who think this market is representative of where the other sellers are.”

David Patch’s web site is at http://www.investigatethesec.com

Do you know that years ago, it would be mainstream media who would follow up. Today, if the independent trader wants to protect themselves from the SEC and organizations in place to benefit the broker-dealer, we bloggers have to do this job ourselves – on our own time and dime. For sure the govt securities regulators are there to serve and protect the Sell-side.

So, let’s step up to the plate and help people like David Patch.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 10:43 PM [link]

Signed it.

Bill, I wonder if most people don't just read the current day's comments? Perhaps a link back from tomorrow's post may help.

Here's the strangest part. I thought this could not affect me, being a small fry guy with not many holdings. BUT, I clicked on the 'media links' link on Patch's site, to read the 'breaking news.'

There is a recent story about Amaranth settling a naked short sale case. Listed there was CDE (Coeur D'Alene)as one of the manipulated listings!

I had an ill-fated fling with near-expiry, close to the money options in silver miners. Of course, despite fundamentals, good earnings announcements, the shares never quite moved enough to go ITM. CDE was one of those shares.

I guess Brian Hunter decided he needed a new washer (I probably couldn't afford a whole bolt or a nut) on his Ferrari and needed my money more than I do. I could get angry. But what can I do? I was playing a rigged game, through and through, and I shouldn't have even tried. Lesson learned.

BTW, I like the term "counterfeit shares" better. That explains it a whole lot more clearly to J6P than "failure to deliver." My .02.

Mike
NYC

Posted by: MikeNYC [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2007 11:54 PM [link]

The USD chart has a shooting star.
This is a bearish formation and could mean
a reversal in USD for now.

http://tinyurl.com/36ypxf

Posted by: Stokbot [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 2:54 AM [link]

Yesterday's action looks like the new Fed Chair also watches the DeMark Sequential (tm) action on the ten year, like his predecessor.

FWIW, as a bottom feeder, I've listed how the Cara100 poor responders and some major ETFs "liked" the bond market beatdown. Just an FYI.

Greetings and best wishes to all.

Posted by: Ron [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 6:30 AM [link]

Bill - "Abuses and Manipulations" could easily be the topic for book #2, and certainly, the routinely expected "zigs and zags" during triple witching and MaxPain week (such as we are in, now) could easily take a chapter, or two, or three.

MaxPain has mostly been decried as a trading strategy, and I personally agree with that, but that doesn't mean that one shouldn't be aware of what really goes on during that week and the week before.

I'm looking forward to your book(s).

Posted by: spot [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 7:58 AM [link]

http://tinyurl.com/2rfert

Crystallex Updates Shareholders Regarding Permitting for the Las Cristinas Gold Project

6/14/2007
Download this Press Release

TORONTO, ONTARIO -- (MARKETWIRE) -- 06/14/07 -- Crystallex International Corporation (TSX: KRY)(AMEX: KRY) reported today it has received notice from the Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana ("CVG"), that the requirements of the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources of Venezuela ("MinAmb" formerly referred to as "MARN") for the issuance of the Environmental permit to commence construction of the Las Cristinas Project have been fulfilled.

MinAmb, based on its approval of the Environmental Impact Study ("EIS") for the Las Cristinas gold project, requested the CVG to post a Compliance Guarantee Bond and pay certain taxes for the issuance of the Environmental permit. Crystallex has posted the bond and paid the taxes.

The CVG confirmed that the approval of the EIS, the posting of the bond and the payment of the taxes represent the final and conclusive step in the procedure for the issuance of the Environmental permit to construct the Las Cristinas Project. Crystallex as the builder and operator of Las Cristinas will have use of this permit in order to construct the project on the basis of the approved feasibility study.

In the formal notice that MinAmb sent to the CVG, it was stated that the Environmental permit will be issued following the payment of taxes and posting of the bond. The CVG now awaits the permit required for the construction of the mine from MinAmb.

Mr. Gordon Thompson, Crystallex President and CEO commented, "The request by the Venezuelan Government for the posting of the Compliance Guarantee Bond and taxes further confirms our understanding that we've complied with the very final stage of the procedure for receipt of the environmental permit."

About Crystallex

Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian based gold producer with significant operations and exploration properties in Venezuela. The Company's principal asset is the Las Cristinas property in Bolivar State that is currently under development and which is expected to commence gold production in 2009 at an initial annualized rate of some 300,000 ounces at the initial planned production rate of 20,000 tonnes of ore per day. Other key assets include the Tomi Mine, certain Lo Increible properties and the Revemin Mill. Crystallex shares trade on the TSX (symbol: KRY) and AMEX (symbol: KRY) Exchanges.

SPECIAL NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable Canadian securities laws, including: statements relating to the estimated reserves and resources at Las Cristinas; anticipated results of drilling programs, feasibility studies or other analyses; the potential to increase reserves and expand production, at Las Cristinas; Crystallex's projected construction and production schedule, and cost and production estimates, for Las Cristinas; and management's statements regarding its expectations regarding mining in Venezuela. Forward-looking statements are based on estimates and assumptions made by Crystallex in light of its experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors that Crystallex believes are appropriate in the circumstances. Many factors could cause Crystallex's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward looking statements, including: gold price volatility; impact of any hedging activities, including margin limits and margin calls; discrepancies between actual and estimated production, between actual and estimated reserves, and between actual and estimated metallurgical recoveries; mining operational risk; regulatory restrictions, including environmental regulatory restrictions and liability; risks of sovereign investment; speculative nature of gold exploration; dilution; competition; loss of key employees; additional funding requirements; and defective title to mineral claims or property. These factors and others that could affect Crystallex's forward-looking statements are discussed in greater detail in the section entitled "Risk Factors" in Crystallex's Annual Information Form (which is included in the Annual Report on Form 40-F that Crystallex files with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") and elsewhere in documents filed from time to time with the Canadian provincial securities regulators, the SEC and other regulatory authorities. These factors should be considered carefully, and persons reviewing this press release should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Crystallex has no intention and undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this press release, except as required by law.

Contacts:
Investor Relations Contact:
Crystallex International Corporation
Richard Marshall, VP
1-800-738-1577
Email: info@crystallex.com
Website: www.crystallex.com

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 8:15 AM [link]

KRY: Guess that explains why it kept getting turned back at $4.00 yesterday - someone was giving their "friends" a last chance to get on board, perhaps?

Maggie

Posted by: writersblock [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 8:18 AM [link]

Hey Maggie,

I bought in at $3.87 2 days ago and I don't have a friend in the world, except you.

Chris

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 8:24 AM [link]

Chris,

Good timing.

Maggie

Posted by: writersblock [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 8:28 AM [link]

Thanks Maggie,

It's funny how you can buy it right now for 5 clams in the pre-market. If the martek opens and it trades, finds its legs, and seems a good buy I will buy more at the open.


Chris

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 8:33 AM [link]

Chris:
I was waiting to buy below 4 for a while, first missed out on a 3.6 limit order, but bought yesterday at 3.92.

Posted by: JogyP [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 8:35 AM [link]

Good Job, Jogy..

I do want to point out that this is not an announcement of receipt of the permit, it's more like VZ saying all the paperwork's in order and it's looking good.

Chris

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 8:41 AM [link]

Chris,
I was just going to post what you just said about still waiting for the permit.
This news is very positive and it will keep KRY in play for few weeks and might provide further trading opportunities.

Posted by: JogyP [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 8:51 AM [link]

Bloggers,

Bill wrote me a note last night and asked if I might come on the board here today and seek your support in helping rid our markets of member-induced fraud. Bill has been on my distribution list for Stockgate Today for some time and supports the efforts. At times Bill has posted my site and/or my editorials on his blog as he did yesterday.

I read one response from Mike NYC that rings true for so many in this market. Mike claimed, “I thought this could not affect me, being a small fry guy with not many holdings.” Fact is, big or small we are all impacted by the mechanisms of abuse set up by the SEC.

In yesterdays SEC webcast of the SHO reform proposals (June 13; http://www.connectlive.com/events/secopenmeetings/) count the number of times the SEC correlated the rationalization for the grandfather clause to limiting market volatility and controlling the short squeeze. It has to be more than a dozen.

Recognize that the SEC never addressed how these large persistent fails came into the markets, what impact these fails had on the market, and who held the financial liability of a short squeezed induced by the forced cover of the persistent fails. The reason they never addressed this matter is because the liability rests solely on the financial institution carrying the fail. These institutions sell massive levels of shares that do not exist and they accrue a liability on those fails. The SEC then does not want to force the settlement of these trades because to settle would rest in buy side momentum that would increase the liability of the firms.

Never once did the SEC talk about investors or issuers. It was about liabilities neither carried.

This process impacts you all even without your stock selection showing up on SHO. How many times have you seen a stock run up 10, 15, 20% only to retrace the profits mere days later. I can tell you that the retrace is market makers protecting the liabilities they created when they were selling into the run up. It happened to me just this past week.

A stock I own ran up some 14% last Friday on heavy volume. You could see the market makers trying to control the movement. In pre-market on Monday these very same market makers were selling down the bid and driving the market to open at a loss when the market opened. No seller would sell in this manner, selling before knowing whether the Friday enthusiasm would carry into Monday. On Monday 80% of the trades were lifted into the offer but the offer collapsed with the bids and by the end of Monday the stock had retraced 50%. Tuesday and Wednesday were more of the same and by Mid-Day Wednesday the stock had lost 110% of Fridays run up. The total Volume of M-W was less than that of Friday and 80% of the trades were at the offer but the stock lost all gains. The member liabilities were again reduced.

Before Crown Financial closed their doors a VP stated that the firm would never cover a bona-fide naked short at a loss. That means they either carried that loss for an indefinite amount of time or, more likely, they controlled the market to cover flat or for a profit. All at your expense.

I ask you to support these efforts I have undertaken. I have the support of Bill on this. If you listen to the SEC archive of yesterdays meeting you will hear of the progress others and I have made although our names are not directly identified. It was I who has obtained much of those FOIA requests they spoke of. Other statements made were also attributed to our cause and our efforts.

People can make a difference; we just have to try.
Thanks to all and thanks to Bill for his support.

Dave Patch

Posted by: Patchie [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2007 8:54 AM [link]

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