When hedge funds implode

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IF27Dj02.html

The trials of Bear Stearns

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IF27Dj01.html

Moin from Germany,

Lennar is out with earnings.....or better no earnings :-)

Lennar out with … no bottom in sight

Revenues of $2.9 billion - down 37%
– Loss per share of $1.55 (includes a $1.33 per share charge related to FAS 144 valuation adjustments and write-offs of option deposits and pre-acquisition costs)
– Homebuilding operating loss of $351.7 million (includes $329.1 million of FAS 144 valuation adjustments and write-offs noted above)
– Financial Services operating earnings of $14.2 million - down $20.4 million
– Homebuilding debt to total capital improved to 31.6% from 33.5% (net homebuilding debt to total capital of 29.6%)
– Deliveries of 9,568 homes - down 28%
– New orders of 8,056 homes - down 31%; cancellation rate of 29%
– Backlog dollar value of $2.8 billion - down 56%

“As we look to our third quarter and the remainder of 2007, we continue to see weak, and perhaps deteriorating, market conditions,'’ Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said in the statement. “We currently expect to be in a loss position in our third quarter.'’

Homebuilding operating loss of $351.7 million (includes $329.1 million of FAS 144 valuation adjustments and write-offs noted above)

The only bright spot is that they have managed to hold their cash position

Homebuilding cash 2007/234,256 2006/164,157

WFMI: I notice RSI 7 Monthly/Weekly/Daily all in the low 30s, so taking a look at getting in...keeping in mind the possiblity of a broad market drop, of course...

Good Morning to All,
After yesterday's posts of times gone by and accompanying lyrics and Bill's response this AM, I have to say I have never felt more at home or part of a like minded group than I do here.

My wife came back home last night after a visit to her mom's in Las Vegas.
We walked in and I turned on XM on the satellite and on came Both Sides Now sung by Judy Collins.
And that line from 2nd Avenue, "Where I wrote 'I am you' on second avenue" is so memorable from my youth. I'm so happy my wife decided to stick with me.

Thank you for sharing and be careful today.
When Bill writes we are connected, he isn't kdding.

Financial Post reports that both Exxon and COP are indicating they may be pulling out of Venezuela. This leaves with very few choices as to where they will go other than the Canadian oil sands. While they have traditionally shunned these, the question seems to be now which acquisition they will make.

Besides the CLO oilsands ETF from Claymore, Groppe, Long & Littel are launching a mutual fund "OilSands Canada Corp" which will hold more than 50 names.

CLO's holdings are listed below:

SUNCOR ENERGY INC. (I/L) 10.58 %
CANADIAN OIL SANDS TRUST 8.58 %
IMPERIAL OIL LTD (I/L) 8.21 %
WESTERN OIL SANDS INC COMMON 7.65 %
UTS ENERGY CORP 7.56 %
OPTI CANADA INC COM 7.55 %
PETROBANK ENERGY & RESOURCES 7.01 %
CONNACHER OIL & GAS LIMITED 6.78 %
SYNENCO ENERGY INC CL A 6.68 %
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LTD 5.98 %
ENCANA CORP 5.33 %
HUSKY ENERGY INC 4.41 %
NEXEN INC 4.13 %
PETRO-CANADA CAD 3.22 %
PENN WEST ENERGY TRUST 3.16 %
ENERPLUS RESOURCES FUND 3.16 %

2nd

RE: WFMI - IMHO, we still have a judicious wait even at these RSI 30 levels; stock is not being accumulated, Stoch on the decline; additionally,I think the RSI 30 "alert" is more (?only?)valid when the RSI7 leads the 14/21 higher from below RSI7 30 values.

Personally, I don't see a ST trade setup. But I have been wrong before....

XOM's Tillerson is saying they will continue to talk.

VZ's oil is very light sweet crude, the opposite of the oil sands issues, so these aren't necessarily good comps. However, the oil sands are a no brainer for both long term investment return almost guaranteed and also income from some of the trusts and partnerships.

If I were Canadian I would sure be looking at some of the trusts with drips. Also, some of these are acquirers of American oil and NG assets from Colorado to Wyoming.

We don't need COP or XOM to make these co's a value, although I won't turn down the help!

RobBoss, in that case I'll wait on WFMI, thanks..

Bought some MER and MS into the close yesterday.
Looking for a mini rally in financials today.

picking up a little SLV @ 124...

Hmmm, not one of my better days so far.

MU is getting it's hat handed to it before earnings, PM's and miners getting the hammer and those ultra short hedges down a half point.

Tough call. Are we going higher or lower?

Anyone else here? LOL!
Are you buying the ultrashort and gold dips?

I'll hold the MU and buy any dip after earnings.
If it surprises, so much the better.

Link to Senate investigative report on the fall of Amaranth, a story of market manipulation and rule breaking. The SEC promised an investigation but has yet to do anything:

http://hsgac.senate.gov/_files/062507Report.pdf

According to the Apiary Inspectors of America, 24 percent of 384 beekeeping operations across the country lost more than 50 percent of their colonies from September to March. Some have lost 90 percent....excerpt for la times.

Anyone following this story? What's the tipping point for reduced crops?

craig-my opinion is GLD/SLV reverse today or tomorrow...not so sure about the broader market>if i had to say, i think it's going up...

Jasper,
I am watching the bee issue with interest. I have seen a severe drop in the population here in the Avocado capital of the world. Fallbrook, CA.

Obvious pump job on the charts just like twice yesterday. Let's see if this holds.

Waiting for break below 1490 to add to short. Will exit on green.

Thanks 2nd,
It took me about half an hour to get a feel for today's tape. Now I see it looks like a lot of volatility. My ultras are jumping up and down so it looks to be bumpy.

I'm really watching the technicals here, which seem to be holding up so far.

Hard to be a buyer in this wreck, but really no choice.

Okay,

New Home Sales slightly below consensus at 915,000... also very low.
New Home Prices down 0.9%
New Home Inventory shrank slightly
BUT
Resale Homes losing value at 2.7% / year!!!

Also, consumer confidence is at 103.9 below the 105 consensus...

So why is Gold flopping, Miners getting shot in the head, and DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ rallying? What news are they possibly rallying on?

stktrader,

It's not like this story just broke, typical but bizarre for the lack of apparent interest. The canary in the coal mine scenario looms. From what i've read bees have genes that predispose themselves to a weak immune system. If there is a diagnostic break thru, how rapidly can the bee population be replaced? ps avocado's are one of the great foods, imho.

i don't sense a real shake-out yet in PMs...we may have to wait for panic in the markets before that happens...all good reasons for hedging with the ultrashorts and/or keeping cash levels high...

I thought Avo's were hand pollinated.

Regardless, without bees we are in trouble.
The problem is these are European honey bees. North American had no honey bees before Europeans brought them here and they aren't evolved to our conditions and diseases.

We have many other varieties, but not the bee we all are used to. Many of the bees on my apple trees are wild burrowing bees, like small bumble bees. Farmers may have to depend on these hardy natives more in the future.

jasper,

Funny you should mention how bizarre the lack of interest is - I work at a broker and heard someone shout yesterday, "why the **** would anyone care about a story that bees are dying coming across the tape!" Just goes to show how dead the ears of some people on the inside are to actual issues. I guess that's why we see the broad market hitting new highs every few weeks.

2nd_ave, there might not be panic, but there's definitely a shakeout underway.

...but we could be getting close to markm's trigger point...as usual, the harder the selling, the more you tend to want to wait even longer before jumping in...so i sometimes try to imagine looking through a lens and refocusing to a wider view to realize that it really doesn't matter if you catch the exact bottom..the point is you're buying at a low point...

Re the bees and other stories
I too have been following the bee story. Here in the Puget Sound area more than 24% of bee keepers are affected. I chatted up one keeper who said large growers in ca. and wa. are renting bees from Austrailia!
Thanks to Bill for hosting this daily party of various folks whom would not ordinarily get together.
To Leisa, who's blog I go to after here, condolences
on the knife incident.
Anyone have any input re SBUX? I got excited when it dropped below 30 and bought a small portion. I am tempted to add here to...you know, average down.
TIA
peace
Gray

...keep in mind bill is looking at silver as the "tell" > down 3.63%

Thought I'd share one I have been keeping an eye on and have a small position in.....Tonbridge Power (TBZ.V on the TSX)

They are currently permitting an hv power line connecting Alberta and Montana and have received a number of necessary permits and awaiting a final decision by the Alberta EUB. They have contracted with ABB and SNC-Lavalin for some of the construction. Yesterday they received $150M financing from Morgan Stanley:

http://www.marketwire.com/2.0/release.do?id=745820

The shares have been punished lately but seem to be turning a corner with nice volume in the last couple days. This one could be a good catch for the Cara MicroCap team. Opinions appreciated as I debate increasing my position.

...also keep in mind your LT target(s)...GLD 100, SLV 20, whatever...

Anyone notice the spike in FXY this AM? Almost 4x average daily volume already. Seems somebody's interested. I read something last night about Japanese officials cautioning about betting on further Yen weakness.

Well, the Blackstone IPO is already underwater. That didn't take long at all.

Yet another data point indicating this market is in its death throes.

Hey Gray, we're sorta neighbors.
I'm on Harstine Island in the south sound.

I bought SBUX just above the 52 wk low yesterday.
I'm not looking at my screen, but it was up earlier today so you might now be a momentum investor!

As I said before, I would be a buyer at $25. 25.50 is close enough. I would still be a buyer with a 25 handle.

Bill echoed my feelings on SBUX yesterday. They have few good comparables. Certainly not McDonalds, Dunkin' Donuts, Krispey Kreme, etc.
Hortons holds it's own in Canada, but SBUX is as busy there as it is here in Western Washington.
I was kinda surprised as Hortons is very popular and has a corner on one of the official Canadian food groups...donuts. The others are, in order, beer and player cigs. BTW, all my Canadian friends, all my maternal relatives are Canadian.
Professional drinkers and smokers par excellence.

RobR
I read your comment regarding a confirmation is required before purchasing a stock in the accumulation zone. Buy when daily RSI 7 moves above 30 AND thru RSI 14/21.
Check out HOV around March 20th. Definitely in the zone. Popped up above 30 and thru the RSI 14/21 as well. Take a look at what happened after that....yech. Lesson: look at what is happening in the sector as well and see if there is a catalyst to get it going! My 2 cents.

..oops SLV 200

Craig,
I think we are also the largest consumer per capita of Kraft Dinner.

The A foods are all up:

SDA +1.2%,
PDA +2.5%,
DBA +1.4%

Craig,
I think we are also the largest consumer per capita of Kraft Dinner.

Today in UK telegraph

Article headline:
Banks 'set to call in a swathe of loans'(US banks)

Lombard Street said the Bear Stearns fiasco was the tip of the iceberg. The greatest risk lies in the “toxic tranches” of lower grade securities held by the banks.

http://tinyurl.com/2ysmlw

TypeKey is messing me up.

WGDF is majorly on sale if anyone is watching/interested.

It doesn't stay down here long.

ALOHA !!

Quite simple this is pure manipulation of the commodity markets. Hit spot gold and spot silver and kill the HUI. They(HB&B)want you out of PMs and commodities. Like Bill says above if commodities soar then that means inflation soars and Wall Street and real estate falls!

Sadly the stakes get bigger and bigger. With all those pension funds and insurance company annuities and 401ks on the line along with "residential" real estate the US government(both Reps and Dems)will spend any amount of fiat dollars and bend any laws to save their asses and especially those bonuses. Hence the PPT becomes the "power play" and the last ditch "Weapon Of Mass Deception"! If you can print an unlimited amount of money you can "goose" the markets until they collapse. Our only problem is to determine the exact timing of the fall. Since none of us here have a crystal ball then we have to resort to this "in and out" game! We are all looking for the BIG ONE ... the BIG HIT ... the MOTHERLODE ... where we happily retire ever after, but as long as there is a fiat monetary system we will be forever on the treadmill of financial survival! You may win the BIG ONE once in awhile but what will your kids win? Its a rigged game like Bill says, but we stand a better chance of surviving if we unite as one cohesive group of "truth seekers"! That, my blog pals, is HB&Bs biggest nightmare!

QUESTION AUTHORITY !! Another essential motto of the 1960s and 70s that has long since been forgotten in todays financial and political media ... It seems all we "question" is "The National Enquirer" ... enquiring minds want to know!

I have been buying select juniors as you know, but not based on the POG or where the HUI is or the DOW but based on assays and management, essentially fundamentals. I believe the profits will come in time. That said I am also in large cash ...

I still have my real estate hedge IPO coming in the UK ... Here is one of our properties in Lake Havasu, Arizona. The storage facility sits on a 40 acre parcel next to Lowe's and the City Of Lake Havasu has a long term 20 year lease with us for a pump station that occupies 2 acres. The facility already is renting but the official GRAND OPENING is not until August.

Ever been to Lake Havasu? I believe it is fast becoming the speed boat and thong capital of the World! No wonder the Bank Of China wanted in ...

Link: http://lakehavasustorage.com/

Bank Of China wanted to throw us a loan but the terms were absurd. Thats what I like ... GET RID OF THE BANKERS AND THEIR OPPRESSIVE LOANS! God only knows what wrath they have spawned on the Third World ...

robr,

can you share the link on the confirmation using rsi's?....not sure of what is meant by "rsi14/21"
thx.

Picked up a little WGDF at 2.21. I feel a bit lucky.
I also bought into PAAS at 26 & change. 26 had shown
good support. It has now broken 26. I don't feel so
lucky anymore.

Anyone,
Put up a 6 mo chart of SLW.
Draw a trendline from the 3/07 low to the current low (today). It nicely touches all the lows since 3/07 indicatin the bottom of the current range ( we are there today).

So, we are at the trendline AND in an ascending flag, which according to my experience, usually resolve to the upside.

I am a buyer of SLW here.

Why have KGC and PAAS taken an especially hard pounding in the past 2 days? They're both down 6-7% in that time.

Down almost 5% in my silver stocks today. SLW, CNU, ECU, SSO, PAAS.

KGC:
I have been watching kGC today with some interest, but the way POG is going down, I am too afraid to add any miners here.

SBUX:
Waiting to exit SBUX at 26.50 IMO, Without a catalyst (+ve news) its likely to trade sideways.

This has been a canadian year for me, so to speak. Bill has become a primary source of information, and in the year prior I've subscribed to guidance from a source I hear has popular following in canada:"the informed trader". They are very risk averse. Stocks are selected on risk reward entry. To my disappointment, though, they move to the sidelines too fast with their LT port...ends up a lot of dog tail chaising. FWIW, this is the first broad mkt sell off in 9 months that they have not cleared the board of ST buys. Current update:We've never turned bearish and we are now starting to see some
positive divergences show up on the 60 minute charts. Not all
over but on many and thus we continue to hold hope that this
lateral consolidation will continue without a breakdown and then
have the eventual breakout in time. It won't be easy but we feel
great about the market still long term while it seems the masses
are getting more and more pessimistic.

Um....nice reversal?

Itchy fingers may be getting the better of me,
I took a position in EWY/korea. May be overextended, but good support showing, good liquidity, some settling down with its northern neighbor, that part of the world is holding up, and gives me exposure to technology. Otherwise, my account is 4% off its high ytd.

Psychologically, if I may use a sample of one, me, as a sentiment indicator. As we keep expecting the big one to take the oxygen out of the mkt, each 1.5% down comes to have more fear associated with it. And, fear has become a popular indicator, right or wrong, to bring fresh money into the mkt.

Darn, my position in oxps..a cara 100 got stopped out and bounced. The risk of hard stops. Well, better safe than sorry.

For those of you who have been keeping an eye on the uranium market, some of the near-term producers are getting whalloped today.

Of note:

SXR.to (TSX) 12.90
Change: -1.38 (9.86%)

Some of the other larger names (Denison Mines and Paladin) are also falling fast. I wouldn't jump in right now to catch the knife, but might be able to find some gems in the rubble in the next few weeks.

Jasper, you're 100% right. Better safe than sorry. I wish I had some stops on my PM shares. Today it's a blood bath, but I'm confident long term. Anyway, about Korea, I'm not into it a lot. As far as I know Korea is the only Asian emerging country with a lot of debts in its consumers (I mean only household debt, and not the National debt), so I suppose that if rates keeps on going up, people there, will face some problems in propping up the local economy.

GLD bouncing right off the 200 day MA, lets see if it holds!

Yes, Boys, I am still waiting on gold and miners. Unfortunately, oil is due to cycle here and so is $USD so I am ultra cautious right now. I will likely enter with a quarter position and when I do I will try to make the announcement for those of you who think the KMart Knockoff Crystal Ball still works. ;)

So far the trendline on SLW is holding, also WGDF. Maybe we've hit a low here.

Big gold story on Bloomberg a few mins ago.
Large hedge fund reportedly buying, #1 holding is gold, then agriculture, energy, barge shipping, rare earth minerals. Hard to argue with that.

markm-the crystal ball still works

BMD-one of the few spared today...but it could be b/c no one has time to trade it...LOL

KRY actually looks to be in good shape also...

markm
Could you elaborate on what you mean about oil cycling? Do you mean as the price of oil contracts, us dollar will get support and hurt gold? If so we/I prefer to think that the perception of inflation will eventually become the driver, not the dollar nor interst rates. Meanwhile, ouch

Announcement from my broker, Montreal-based TradeFreedom:

"Today, we are very pleased to announce that Scotiabank has signed a definitive agreement to acquire TradeFreedom Securities Inc. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed and are subject to regulatory approval. TradeFreedom Securities will operate as a separate, independent subsidiary of Scotia Capital Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Bank of Nova Scotia..."

I have been very happy with the service thus far, for anyone looking for a CDN-based broker. They give 10 free streaming real-time quotes that you can monitor, and change at will, and their free trading platform is pretty nice too.

Just food for thought.

j-

Unfortunately, oil is set up for an intermediate term decline and $USD a ST bounce. That combination could push POG right below support and into a major selloff. Headlines, of course, can interfere with timing.

As people's portfolios have experienced today, the miners are getting whacked. As that ratio hits an extreme, a buy point will be established, at least for me.

..as expected, DUG (ultrashort oil) would have been a better hedge for me today than SDS, so making a lateral move now from SDS into DUG...still looking for an inverse gold ETF...

...may in fact be early, but re-entering (partial aliquots sounds good here...25% of 25%=6.25% of total portfolio) a ST gold position via SLV/GDX...how can today NOT be a good time to buy a little...

commodities are broken...more stops to be hit soon, pm positions will just be held. my sacrifice for the economy.

The 1490 level is very important on the S&P for the broad market. If we close below it I will trim some positions.

When this gold correction started I said the HUI is likely to hit 280 based on the charts and on the last two gold corrections. Kaimu agrees. That would be a tremendous buying opportunity especially with credit-related problems surfacing now.

S&P 1490 very important, hey we are almost there. 200 day averages being crossed all over the place

My SDS is up smartly at the moment.

How does everyone feel about the FC (financial calendar) tomorrow? I see a negative bias again for the major indices.

Thanks, Steve

Don't underestimate the Fed's ability to jawbone this market, temporarily.

Anyone feeling nervous about holding gold should read Robert Kiyosaki's "Booms Were Made to Go Bust" at http://tinyurl.com/2v3g5h

POG=?
I entered it at Yahoo Finance and googled with no luck.

It's bantered about frequently and I would like to use it for my info gathering.

Could anyone let me know what this is?

Thank you.

Sarah-Hadassah

Picked up some more KRY at 4.02
(I am expecting permit next week)

Looks like the market is not ready to go down yet.

OIH:
Tomorrow's oil report could reverse the current OIH downtrend.

POG=PRICE OF GOLD

POG=price of gold

POG - Price of Gold

Today brought a world of hurt onto my PM miners...

My PAAS and KGC are really hurting here. SLW held up well...

I know little about the actual timing of permits being awarded to companies like KRY once all the paper work is in place, but next week will be 3 weeks since everything was supposedly in place. Eitherway, I'm now 70% into total desired KRY share holdings. Hopefully, I didn't time this too badly.

Oh Boy! Do I feel silly! Oh well, one has to start somewhere.

Thanks for your time and answers. Sarah-Hadassah

ALOHA !!

If you have been at this gold market like I have since 2001 you would know that there have been plenty of these down days in the past and many much worse. I recall getting past $400USD and $500USD POG was hell. Here we are gunning to get past $700USD, so don't be surprised to see POG below $600USD, but that will be the last time!Eventually you get used to selloffs and quit fretting and instead see these manipulations as buying opportunities. The weak hands are selling ... nothing else has changed fundamentally.

I have had two articles published on 1978 US Federal Reserve Bank FOMC meetings where the minutes show the same kind of manipulations happening now as they were back then. There is nothing new under the sun no matter how much spin CNBC throws out on TV! HB&B are selling the same old crap they were selling in 1929 only with a new label on it!

Look at a gold chart for the past five years and you will see that the constant futures sell offs and PM share selling still have not stopped the POG from rising year after year.

I agree with Bill that you do not want to be totally out of gold. I have been buying not selling!

Now I have to go out into the exquisite Hawaiian sunshine and get back to nature and contemplate my navel 1960's style! Cheerio mates!

Bees. FWIW, I’ve been following this issue for 4 months or so. There were some Congressional hearings involving the Dept. Of Agriculture and some state agriculture departments back around March or so. (I’m on the road and unfortunately don’t have my notes) It’s one of the reasons I’ve been long agriculture related equity.

The bee problem is called Colony Collapse Disorder CCD) and concerns unexplained disappearance and die-offs of bees. Exact cause is unknown although there are a lot of theories. (One included cell phones causing disorientation). Nothing ascertained at this point as the cause. It’s more of a problem on the coasts of the U.S. although there are some problems in Michigan and Wisconsin from what I understand. Although I haven’t heard an update in more than three weeks, I am aware the same problem exists in 9 countries in Europe and there are also reports from Brazil. It’s been a buried story. For more info try googling Colony Collapse Disorder

As for the broker who asks why should someone care. It’s a long story, but it helps to read the congressional report and realize there are opportunities out there. Bees pollinate a number of things although only some are 100% reliant on bees. Some other ag items require bees for 50, 60 or 70 %, so there may be substitutes that come with additional expense.

As an example, almonds require bees 100% for pollination. No bees, no almonds. Almond growers in California had to import bees from Australia this year. Don’t know what’s happening with alfalfa yet, but if they are having problems with it, cattle will require even more feed grain which has increased significantly in price already. Price increases can effect companies and are passed on. Price of meat will increase even more.

If CCD worsens, inflation will rise even more.

Out for most of the day. Lots of red for the PMs, but note currency hedges FXY & CAQ up. AG plays unchanged for the most part.

After market has SLW 80K share transaction at 16:21

Si02--had PDA on my list, but now will add SDA. THX. BTW, I think it was telestar who gave you Cresud. Note WBD move today, up 5.85% (No position).

Re Ag plays, it's the companies that supply raw material--farm equip, fertilizers, genetic seed modification.

kaimu, glad to see your last post...sharp selling brings out too much negativity, until you look at the flip side...i agree with markm's advice not to try "making your year" on the short side, but i will be taking advantage of any long side set ups in oil/gold...keep in mind any CB sales have NOTHING to do with the value of gold-they have another agenda...you need to hang out with the buy side, which probably includes china/india/a few smart hedge funds...

On the food play front, anyone look at SEB - Seaboard Corp? Four years ago it was at $200 per share, now at +$2,220. Still at only 12x actual earnings. Very good return on equity as well.

Seamus,

FWIW, I got this message from a friend today.
"On my way back from Calgary several weeks ago, I was chatting on my ham radio to the head beekeeper for southern BC. The good news is that BC does not have the CCD problem that other areas do. For some reason, our bees are happy to stay at home tending the hive.

Part of the problem says the beekeeper is that bees are taken all over USA by truck and that if any of them have diseases, etc. they propagate quickly. Luckily, Canada seems to have avoided this by prohibiting the importation of bees many years ago."

Re Bees: I assume that my friend meant that the diseases propagated and not the bees. Or, is there some aphrodisiac bee disease going around. Are U.S. bees mingling with Spanish flies up from Mexico?

RE: the honeybee issue

Here's a bit of a recent article in the LA TIMES about the bee situation.

"The dead bees under Dennis vanEngelsdorp's microscope were like none he had ever seen. He had expected to see mites or amoebas, perennial pests of bees. Instead, he found internal organs swollen with debris and strangely blackened. The bees' intestinal tracts were scarred, and their rectums were abnormally full of what appeared to be partly digested pollen. Dark marks on the sting glands were telltale signs of infection. "The more you looked, the more you found," said VanEngelsdorp, the acting apiarist for the state of Pennsylvania. "Each thing was a surprise." VanEngelsdorp's examination of the bees in November was one of the first scientific glimpses of a mysterious honeybee die-off that has launched an intense search for a cure. The puzzling phenomenon, known as Colony Collapse Disorder, or CCD, has been reported in 35 states, five Canadian provinces and several European countries. The die-off has cost U.S. beekeepers about $150 million in losses and an uncertain amount for farmers scrambling to find bees to pollinate their crops. Scientists have scoured the country, finding eerily abandoned hives in which the bees seem to have simply left their honey and broods of baby bees. "We've never experienced bees going off and leaving brood behind," said Pennsylvania-based beekeeper Dave Hackenberg. "It was like a mother going off and leaving her kids." Researchers have picked through the abandoned hives, dissected thousands of bees, and tested for viruses, bacteria, pesticides and mites. So far, they are stumped."

Some are speculating that genetically modified seed others speculate that a Bayer made insecticide is to blame.

.......from Newhouse News
" an insecticide is suspected of causing a ``colony collapse'' disorder that has killed millions of honeybees worldwide and up to half of the 2.5 million colonies in the United States. The chief suspect, say many scientists, is imidacloprid, the most commonly used insecticide on the planet. Honeybees come into contact with pesticides because they are needed to pollinate scores of crops, including apples, cherries, blueberries and other crops in southwestern Michigan. The die-off has been a major concern for farmers and scientists, who have been looking into potential causes, from diseases and parasites to pesticides. A member of a class of pesticides called neonicotinoids, imidacloprid is a synthetic derivative of nicotine and works by impairing the central nervous system of insects, causing their neurons to fire uncontrollably and eventually leading to muscle paralysis and death. The potent chemical can be sprayed on plants or coated on seeds, which then release the insecticide through the plants as they grow. Research has shown that in sublethal doses imidacloprid and other neonicotinoids can impair honeybees' memory and learning, as well as their motor activity and navigation. Recent studies have reported ``anomalous flying behavior'' in imidacloprid-treated bees, in which the workaholic insects simply fall to the grass or appear unable to fly toward the hive. Imidacloprid was used on just a few specialty crops when it first came out, but its use has become much more widespread because of its effectiveness against a wide range of pests, said Mark Longstroth, Michigan State University Extension's district educator for fruit in southwestern Michigan. It is also used by homeowners because ``it's very safe for the mammalian system,'' he said. Longstroth hasn't reviewed data on how imidacloprid is suspected to affect the honeybees, but he said implicating the chemical as the colony collapse culprit sounds plausible."

And here's a related news story...

Bayer CropScience AG and Monsanto have entered into a series of long-term business and licensing agreements related to key enabling agricultural technologies. Within the framework of these agreements Bayer CropScience will grant Monsanto a royalty bearing, non-exclusive license for its LibertyLink herbicide tolerance technology for use in corn and soybeans, the two largest field crops in terms of acreage in the United States. The agreements provide Monsanto with an option to market corn and soybean seeds which contain both Monsanto's Roundup Ready and Bayer CropScience's LibertyLink technologies, which could provide farmers with additional weed management solutions.

Bottom line....one of three mouthfuls of food is dependent on bee polination. Kaimu mentioned question authority... we also need to question the above mentioned corporations and independently verify their products are not killing the bees.

Oh boy, PDA up 6% today on top of the huge run-up so far (kick, kick, kick). SDA ended up 1%. Those are chicken, meat, etc. DBA ended up +1.4% I think I am building an ETF of these :-)

moab, I have a small position in SEB. It's somewhat illiquid, but I guess at this price not many shares would trade anyhow. Majority of shares family owned. They don't offer share options. None to directors, family, whatever. No backdating.

Fred, one of the suspected causes was importation and mixing with European bees. Another, overwork with repeated truck rides to all over. But that doesn't explain what's happening in Europe or Brazil.

Thanks Seamus. I am thinging of buying two SEB shares on pullback! LOL

Seamus,
The bee demise is a serious issue and likely related to human interference with nature. I'm conflicted being an investor with a social conscience and sensitivity to environmental issues. On one hand I play a rich person's game where I own mining and oil companies. On the other hand, I'm concerned that we're killing the planet.

Re gold: I see an entire spectrum of opinions today. I can think of two reasonable ways to sift through it. One is to listen to yourself...this means talking it out with yourself/thinking it through inside your head...and you should arrive at a suitable answer (for me, it's a combination of recalling/challenging my reasons for the LT play, hedging the LT play, and adding a ST play). The other is (to use one of Bill's terms) "bet the jockey"...pick the person you would bet on to best navigate through the market.

I often find it helps to mentally play the opposing side...when gold is on a tear, I try to conjure negative scenarios that prepare me to sell...when it dives, I try to recall those times (not too hard, really, as you normally only need to go back a few trading days) when I thought I would never see these prices again...

Good luck getting through yet another one...

2nd_ave,
I found today testing. Not because I was losing money but, because it was challenging to turn over underwater stocks. I operate with a finite amount of funds available for the market. I assume most of the community does also. A few days ago I had lots of reserve cash. In the past three days I bought the dips. Unfortunately, they kept dipping and I've run out of money. So, today I was selling 4% losers that I like and buying 8% losers that I like. I actually managed to reduce my losses significantly but, it wasn't fun. That's my story, today. Tomorrow will be better!

2ave-

I have about 50 "situations" that I monitor. One of them is always "coming to me". That allows me to wait on the others. Gold is one of the others.

Let me give you some examples. FXY has been mentioned often in these pages. Very interesting here. Of large caps, can PG get more oversold? It hasn't in quite a while. Etc, etc.

I find that if you have as many irons in the fire as I do, and you are diligent about monitoring them, the frenetic in/out/in trading goes away.

Best,

markm-yes, i can see opening up the playing field will allow me to play a different kind of game. i have no bias against going in that direction, and undoubtedly will eventually expand my universe, but i need to let that move evolve at its own pace. it's kind of like learning to play an instrument...we all aspire to get to the point where we can walk on to a stage and let the musicians and the audience "tell" us what to do and then (effortlessly) do it. experience, practice and persistence pay off in the capital markets. i appreciate the (hard-earned) suggestions you and everyone else on this board bring to the table...