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June 19, 2007
Cara’s Daily Commentary, Tues., June 19, 2007, 8:08 AM
Market Chat
How mixed up is this market? There just wasn’t much news to drive it one way or the other -- at least in the US.
On Tuesday, there may be some market moving economic news from the US, but really not much is likely to happen on the domestic scene. Chain Store Sales, May Housing Starts, and the Redbook Retail Sales Index will be out in the morning, but I wouldn’t look too deeply there. In addition, earnings results from (Cara 100 companies) Best Buy (BBY) and Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) will be reported, but, again, these are not big market movers.
At 8:11am ET, BBY shares are now down about -4.6 pct on Instinet as Best Buy reported a large miss on Wall St consensus earnings estimates.
For Monday, the DJIA dropped -26.5 points (-0.19 pct), while the NASDAQ Composite was flat, and the S&P 500 was off a bit (-0.12 pct). The Dow Utilities ($UTIL) dropped -1.04 pct, however, and the Dow Transports ($TRANS) went down -0.80 pct. It’s pretty hard to be enthusiastic over the Dow Transports with Crude Oil at close to record highs for the current cycle.
Crude Oil ($WTIC +0.80 pct to 69.09) closed very strong. Still, the ICE Brent (European market), which usually trades at a discount to West Texas Intermediate, was trading at a +5 pct premium. Go figure.
After moving up early in the day, the Yield on the 10-year Treasury Note closed at 5.142, down -0.56 pct on the day. The 30-year T-Bond ($USB) lifted +0.32 pct to 106.62. The US Dollar ($USD) closed soft with the falling treasury yield (-0.16 pct).
There is not a lot on this week’s horizon in the US that could move this market sharply one way or another. Traders will have to stay tuned to political events in the Middle East, or the stocks in Shanghai and Hong Kong if they are looking for action.
Regarding the latter, three of the top four Portfolio Gainers (ie, winners from the Cara 100 Watchlist) were China Telecom (CHA), China Mobile (CHL) and China National Offshore Oil Co (CEO). PetroChina (PTR) was also a solid winner, 11th best. Of these four, only CHL failed to hit a 52-week high on the day.
Economics Calendar and Reports
Economic calendar from Econoday
Econoday prior week's international economic report.
At 8:30ET today, the May Housing Starts data will be released. Econoday will provide a summary later in the morning. The Starts may not be reflective of underlying market conditions, which are better shown by new permits issued.
US Housing starts data.
Global Equity Markets Review
The US market was soft yesterday. I’m glad I took the day off. In fact, after an initial rally on Friday at the open, the stock prices have drifted. Hint: they seldom drift up. At least, the NASDAQ Composite has managed to stay flat for almost two full sessions.
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Here’s the closing data of the Asia-Pacific equity markets..
Green arrows across the Asia-Pacific region today, but especially in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
India’s Bombay Sensex 30 index also rallied, but the Japanese Nikkei 225 was flat.
Here’s the chart of the Japanese Nikkei 225..
The Nikkei Dow gained +14 points (+0.08 pct) today, which was a second straight flat day following the run up at the open yesterday.
Here’s the chart of the Shanghai equity market..
Shanghai has traded sideways for most of two straight sessions.
Here’s the chart of the Bombay India Sensex 30 index..
The very volatile Indian equity market was in rally mode from early in the session, closing up +215 points (+1.53 pct) on the BSE 30 index.
Here’s the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Stocks are holding steady in Europe today (as of 7:24 am ET).
Bonds & Yields Review
Here is the T-Bond chart.
Bond prices moved up yesterday. The T-Bond closed at 106.625, after a small gain on the day, but quite a bump after the opening loss. That is four straight positive sessions for the T-Bond.
Forex Review
Here is the $USD chart at the close of the prior session.
The $USD (at 6:57am ET) is at 82.727, after a wild ride during the night. The $USD is down a bit from this time yesterday.
Commodities Review
The $CRB closed yesterday at 320.90, up +1.60 on the day, and from 311.69 last Wednesday.
Here is the $CRB Index chart.
Oil Review
At 7:57am ET this morning, the e-MiNY Jul-07 contract for Crude Oil was 69.05, up sharply from yesterday at about this time. The big move occurred yesterday morning based on reports of increased fighting in Nigeria and the Middle East.
Here is the e-miNY July-07 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Spot gold at 7:58am ET today is 655.3, about the same as at yesterday morning at this time, and up from Friday morning.
I still think it is time for gold and the PM bullion and stocks to rock and roll, but Twiggs this morning opined that gold was headed for a test of 630.
Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.
At 7:43am ET this morning, the Spot silver (AG) was 13.17, up from 12.98 Thursday morning, but down from yesterday’s high of about 13.35.
Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.
This morning at 7:44am ET, Spot platinum is at 1285, up about +8 since the open this week, but down after yesterday’s high of about 1297.
Here is the Recent Spot Platinum chart.
Palladium (at 7:53am ET) is at 368, flat to modestly higher for a couple days.
Here is the Recent Spot Palladium chart.
Precious Metals Stocks Review
$XAU has been trading in a very narrow band for about seven weeks.
There are many analysts who hold the view that gold stocks ought to be sold here. I don’t share that view.
Here are the $XAU charts, courtesy of StockCharts.com:
Interactive Chart of Daily and Weekly US Goldminers Index:
The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.
Here are the Daily and Weekly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:
Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
ABX NEM GG GFI KGC AU HMY AUY BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch
This data is supplied every day by the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc.
Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 gainers. Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List gainers.
As I noted off the top, the big winners included all the Chinese stocks of the Cara 100 companies.
Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 losers. Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List losers.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the previous session.
Twenty-two new highs and zero new lows. China, Brazil and the Oils permeate the list of 52-week highs.
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes in the previous session. This is a good list to watch anytime markets start trending in the extreme. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes. That btw is called Money Flow.
Yahoo (YHOO) traders seemed to like the fact Terry Semel is out as CEO. This is more a reflection on shareholder enthusiasm that the Board sees issues and will confront them than it is on Semel, I think.
Here is the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks
Here, from “Chris”, are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30:
“Chris” takes this data from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data (from Worden). I ought to be able to introduce a Wilder Smoother to this data in upcoming months.
Here, from “David”, are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest and lowest RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for the previous session.
Other Recent Wall Street upgrades
Other Recent Wall Street downgrades
There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website is updated later in the morning.
Most of the recent initiated coverage ratings are positive.
Community Chat
Have a great day. I'll be around for most of the session.
We had a little storm come through today.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 19, 2007 08:08:54 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary
Discourse
Moin from Germany,
more on Best Buy
During the first quarter of fiscal 2008, Best Buy repurchased approximately 8.7 million shares of its common stock at an average price of $47.21 per share, for a total of $412 million.
with a net income of $192 million.... no cashflow number in the release.....
Chris,
I am still making basic changes to the site.
In the old photo, I was looking at a monitor. Now I'm just concerned that you don't see the same things I do. (LOL)
Actually, the overwhelming majority of readers remarked that they wanted me (i) looking straight at them, and (ii) not looking posed. I decided to look unhappy because the past six months has been a challenge with two moves of the whole site to new ISP's, plus radical changes in the site architecture, several new projects underway in the background, and a planned move to Bahamas getting closer. At no time during this period has my health been up to par. I'm thinking and hoping that after I get to Nassau I will start to relax and enjoy life, with no further health issues for a while.
Posted by: Bill Cara ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
June 19, 2007 8:40 AM [link]
HOV.
Entry point?
Posted by: srolaser at
June 19, 2007 8:41 AM [link]
Posted by: Pierre at
June 19, 2007 8:43 AM [link]
BMD: Insider activity shows 717,500 options granted to officers last Friday at 3.12/share (Canadian):
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 8:44 AM [link]
re sinus issues...fwiw...my wife has me use a "neti" pot...they irrigate the nasal passsages, kind of like flossing...i live in the ohio valley...allergists flock here to make their fortunes. this technique works for a lot of us. whole food item, likely.
salt air better..so until then may be a consideration.
Posted by: jasper at
June 19, 2007 8:45 AM [link]
Dear Bill,
That's cool about the computer stuff. I'm sure that the weather in the Bahamas will clear up whatever lingering phlegmatory vicissitudes you still may have. Bring your suntan lotion, though! Did I ever tell ya the second best weekend of my life happened in Nassau?
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
June 19, 2007 8:52 AM [link]
Not sure where the "sinus" posts originated, but I use Flonase (nasal steroid) to good effect when allergies hit mine. A day or two reduces the congestion almost immediately, then once a week until the season passes.
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 8:56 AM [link]
BMD: Jarding (new president) was awarded 100,000 options, which I think is a good move...not as much as I expected, but it now gives him incentive to bring sales/earnings to the point where the stock moves to 12, which should add 7 figures to his compensation...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 9:01 AM [link]
..and to mine LOL (just kidding)...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 9:01 AM [link]
Since I posted late last night in response to the 'national political fortunes' thread, I'll re-post this here today.
-----
Bill and others seeking change in the political fortunes of our home nations,
A movement is gathering across the Internet to find a way for citizens to more directly influence the course of elections and the leaders we (should) choose to guide our fortunes toward more welcome goals: Unity08. The intent of this movement is to highlight those Democratic and Republican presidential candidates whose motives and agendas augur well for our commonweal.
From the Unity08 web site:
"Unity08 is a diverse group of Americans who believe that neither of today’s parties reflects the aspirations, concerns or will of the majority of Americans. Both parties have polarized and alienated voters. Both are unduly influenced by single-issue groups. Both are excessively dominated by money.
"There is a better way…
"Unity08 is committed to presenting a third presidential ticket and platform – one that addresses the issues and challenges of the 21st Century – to the American voters in 2008.
"We will not waste time pointing fingers. Instead, we will focus on how America can find common ground on critical issues – to give the overlooked moderate majority a voice and a choice in 2008. "
Please check out Unity08 at http://tinyurl.com/38terp
Become an online convention delegate. Spread the word . . . .
Posted by: johojo at
June 19, 2007 9:15 AM [link]
Moin from Germany,
update on Best Buy ( see post #2)
In comparison, the company repurchased $599 million and $772 million in fiscal 2007 and fiscal 2006, respectively. At the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2008, the company had $0.8 billion remaining under the $1.5 billion authorization for share repurchases announced in June 2006.
when they continue their run rate of the first quarter they will have to spend almost the complete operating cash flow ( $ 1,7 billion) from the past year…. and this year the cf should be lower….
the more details you read .......the weaker the numbers look.
wouldn´t be surprising to see some "activist" trying to push for a debt offering to buy back stcoks down the road......especially when they will warn again....
srolaser... I wouldn't touch HOV with a ten-foot pole. A weak company in a weak sector, they have badly missed their guidance over the past year, lost hundreds of millions of dollars, and have removed any further guidance for this year.
Of course, that could mean things are as bad as they are going to get. I think they'll get worse, and at the very best, this stock will stay where it is for the intermediate term.
Posted by: number2son at
June 19, 2007 9:31 AM [link]
johojo,
I too may like to see a third party development, but mostly I'd like the supporters of the two main parties elect people like Dr. Paul and Mr. Spitzer, who have shown much more independence in their behavior to date than their colleagues.
A strong third party also facilitates back-room dealings where the second and third leading parties can combine to defeat the party that may be supported by the largest majority. A third party will also have its wealthy supporters with axes to grind.
There are no easy solutions.
Being a pragmatist, I think the electorate should work to improve the system that has worked well over the years.
Howard Dean showed how the Web can be used to raise funds from a concerned public. I believe within 20 years, if the Internet remains an independent tool for many-to-many communications, that the broad public will be able to organize and counter the efforts made by back-room pupeteers. The electronic town hall concept is the solution, I think.
For the same reasons, I think trading bloggers will, within a generation, alter the dynamics where today's focused manipulations (c.bankers, HB&B, and HPEC) will become less effective.
I don't think there are reasons to despair. The financial system has gotten off kilter today, but it has in the past and recovered. I truly believe these situations come in waves, and that an upcoming wave will correct the problems we face today.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 9:42 AM [link]
Is anyone listening to the Western Goldfields webcast? I can't get it to work on my computer, so if someone could give a recap I would be indebted.
FYI, it started at 9:30 and can be accessed from www.westerngoldfields.com
Posted by: chas at
June 19, 2007 9:42 AM [link]
Bill,
Unless I've misinterpreted, I don't think Unity08 reflects merely 'third party aspirations'.
Unity08 is an attempt to bring direct citizen pressure to bear upon the traditional nominating process of both major parties.
By aggregating direct support of registered voters in advance of the Republican and Democratic conventions, Unity08 can bring a potentially powerful influence into the regular nominating process.
Imagine how the process might be affected if major party candidates could garner an organized set of, say, 20,000,000 registered voters. That could be a powerful counter to backroom lobbies . . . .
I found it worth the time required to read through explanation such as the FAQ of Unity08 organizational motives at http://tinyurl.com/38terp
Posted by: johojo at
June 19, 2007 10:03 AM [link]
SBUX
Anyone nibbling? It's showing some positive technical indications and the RSI has moved back above 30, but it's certainly not a value pick with the PE where it is.
Posted by: manx928 at
June 19, 2007 10:09 AM [link]
The Western Goldfields webcast is tomorrow I believe.
Posted by: bwl at
June 19, 2007 10:26 AM [link]
website says 19th, is that incorrect?
Posted by: chas at
June 19, 2007 10:35 AM [link]
Webcast just finished, not much new, all good news. Management will be focussing on bringing the share price up in line with other companies.
Posted by: SiO2 at
June 19, 2007 10:38 AM [link]
Appreciate it.
Posted by: chas at
June 19, 2007 10:39 AM [link]
The button on the homepage says the 19th, but when you click on it, it says
"This presentation will be available on June 20, 2007 at 09:30 AM Eastern Daylight Time."
It looks like someone made a mistake...I am not sure which one is right.
Posted by: bwl at
June 19, 2007 10:41 AM [link]
Thanks johojo,
I'm hoping you can keep us up to speed. On the surface, I definitely like what I see.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 10:50 AM [link]
RE: WGI meeting was webcast 9:30 today replay available June 20.
Posted by: RonK at
June 19, 2007 10:50 AM [link]
BMD: now up 7.65%...there's no way they were keeping prices down so insiders could load up on options at 2.91....right...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 11:46 AM [link]
Gold making a move here.. I think it will be good for few days. GRS has the best upside potential IMO.
2nd Ave:
Thanks for your notes on BMD. It kept me from selling at 2.8. Enjoying the BMD ride today.
Posted by: JogyP at
June 19, 2007 12:10 PM [link]
JogyP and Craig: Unbelievable...BMD now up 18% on high volume...i think we'll be able to see the institutional "footprints" in a few months on a 3 month chart...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 12:42 PM [link]
BMD:
Finally the new came out.
Birch Mountain signs multi-year contract to supply aggregates
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070619/to239.html?.v=52
One guy posted this on Yahoo message board yesterday.
Posted by: JogyP at
June 19, 2007 12:47 PM [link]
GRS, gannon is "pending" on my account...has it stopped trading or anything...perhaps a glitch by fidelity?
Posted by: jasper at
June 19, 2007 12:51 PM [link]
Chris, Sharkie, Golf Guy or Jamie (do you have a split personality btw? LOL)
Re your readability issues with the new site:
The menu is java that executes on the user's pc. If the options in the browser block its use then it can have problems, but as this is so common on web sites it is rarely blocked.
There may be a lag on the user's pc if it is slow and that may cause some co-ordination problems.
Re: going back to having an image map is not a realistic option, for many reasons, so clicking on part of the masthead is not a good choice.
If there are more details about what is wrong, what PC/MAC, what version of operating system, which browser - then I can ask the tech support if there are any known issues and work arounds.
/Bill
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 12:59 PM [link]
GRS has something going as I've got no holding info on it and the symbol is GRS##.
I called Scottrade and they said something about a name change, but it's trading as usual, at least in the U.S., up about 2%.
How you doing 2nd!!! Did you pull the trigger up 25%? I sold a portion and am now waiting for the pullback to the mean. Bought some for dear old Mom too, I know she'll be happy.
Looks like it's Bill 1, CT 0, at least today.
PM's and miners strong.
Posted by: Craig at
June 19, 2007 1:02 PM [link]
Is anybody watching Taser (TASR) btw?
Despite missing 1Q revenue estimates, and a slew of other problems, since the beginning of May, TASR has rallied from $8 to a high of $13 this morning.
I see that former US Surgeon-General Carmonna has recently joined their Board.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 1:05 PM [link]
Moin,
If you are just trading prices on BBUY, that's one thing and nothing I can comment on.
From a fundamental perspective, BestBuy seems, based on reports from former and current sales associates and customers which are available on www.consumerist.com, to focus a lot on various schemes that seem very underhanded, high-pressured and possibly illegal. Or at least it seems to pressure sales associates to such a degree to sell various contracts and add-ons that the associates come up with these schemes on their own.
This seems like a not very ethical company. Here are some very recent headlines from consumerist:
http://consumerist.com/consumer/best-buy/
Best Buy Attorney Admits To Falsifying Emails In Racketeering Case
05 24 2007
Bait and Switch
Connecticut Sues Best Buy For Tricking Customers With Secret Internal Website
(Bestbuy built a whole parallel bestbuy.com website that would come up inside the stores so that they could refute 'price matching' claims.)
That's blatant fraud! And someone went to a lot of trouble to do it.
05 18 2007
Crime
Best Buy Stole My Computer!
(guy brings a computer in for service, they lose it and refuse to do anything about it)
Best Buy
RESOLVED: Geek Squad Fixed My iPod By Sending Me A Broken One
05 17 2007
tampering
RESOLVED: Best Buy Either Voided Your XBOX Warranty Or Sold You A Used Unit
05 09 2007
Confessions
Best Buy Employee Confesses To Scams Similar To Ones Outlined In Racketeering Lawsuit
This last one is just a long laundry list of all the tricks the associates may have used to 'scam' customers. Every shopper should read this one, because it shines a light on the ugly things sales associates can pull on people at any store, not just BestBuy.
This looks like, based on reports of customers and sales associates, one scary company.
Regards,
Mike
NYC
PS If it seems I may have attempted to write this using what some people may regard as possible 'weasel words,' it may or may not be true. I am only reporting the experiences of others or news headlines and in no way wish to state on Bill's blog anything that can be interpreted as incorrect or slanderous, thereby bringing down the wrath of lawyers representing a large, seemingly, reportedly, unscrupulous company on myself or Bill.
Phew!
Posted by: MikeNYC at
June 19, 2007 1:22 PM [link]
craig,
this is one of those days i was talking about with jasper...how do you wrestle with short-term noise on the upside when you've taken a LT position...right now i wish i had sold some at 3.96 and reloading, but you never know how high it will go...probably should have taken on a ST position to play with last week, but i'm pretty exposed to the stock already...in any case, glad it worked out for you...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 1:32 PM [link]
I had lunch a couple days ago with Frank Marasco of Calgary who is the CEO and major shareholder of a TSX.V listed company called West High Yield WHY Resources (TSX.V:WHY). I like his deal, and so does Pinetree.
WHY bought a large claim group in the Rossland BC gold camp and discovered they contained huge widths of low grade nickel, right on surface. The property is located 4 miles from the Teck-Cominco smelter at Trail BC, and nearby a second smelter.
The company has 40 million shares out, under 49 mil fully diluted, including 8.3 mil warrants @ $0.60 that expire this July 27, plus some 600,000 options. There is no debt and $4.2 million cash in the treasury. Insiders own 27.6 mil shares.
The company IPO’d August 2006. This quarter a 20,000 ft (7000 meter) drill program was started, and now an additional drill is on the way. As they realized what the property contained, they recently acquired additional claims so that they now own 31.5 sq. km. (3150 hectares) of contiguous claims. To date, $4.5 million has been spent on acquisitions and exploration.
As this is an old gold property, all the roads, power and infrastructure is in place. The workers can even order pizza for lunch from the nearby city of Trail or from the town of Rossland 5 minutes away. There is even a major airport close by that I have flown into.
The story here is long-term, excellent for trading. The nickel was always known. In fact, the BC government has an extensive database that covers this property, which the company is drilling out to its satisfaction. If you hold the long-term view that nickel prices, which have zoomed in the past couple years, are going to remain high, this story really is a no-brainer.
Frank Marasco definitely has a winner from all I can see.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WHY.V&t=3m
Note the price is stuck right on the soon-to-expire warrant price.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 1:39 PM [link]
Recently, I read about some people in Vermont raising the issue of whether that State should seriously consider seceeding from the US. Today, I read that the town of Berhshire Hill, Mass, has for the last 10 months been printing their own local currency as an alternate to the $US.
"The times they are a'changing ..."
Posted by: spot at
June 19, 2007 1:45 PM [link]
I received a nice letter from a long-time reader.
BC - A while ago, and every so often, you posted pics from your office
window - pics of ducks or geese flying off or landing - maybe a sunrise or set or two..
>
Anyway, you should consider carving out a spot on your site for those pics - and more that you take.
>
> My 2 cents.
>
> Rk
I replied: RK, I plan to do that every day from Nassau Bahamas, including photos of some of my visitors. It ought to be fun. /Bill
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 1:46 PM [link]
Just a quick note, and not a recommendation, but TLT is now up about $2 from when Bill mentioned that the 10yr Bond Yield might be peaking. Might retrace at any time, but worth watching, imo.
Posted by: spot at
June 19, 2007 1:50 PM [link]
@nd,
That's why I only sold a portion. On the pretty good bet that a 25% move is unsustainable, and if it is, I still hold 75% of my original basis.
It hasn't worked out yet my friend, I haven't yet reloaded. We shall see.....
Sometimes I get a good skinning doing this, or at least miss the bigger move. But I am betting 25% was that initial move after the last few days of good 3% moves. You made a great call this morning. AND, you are still up 15% *today* with a low basis. We should all have it so bad!
Posted by: Craig at
June 19, 2007 1:53 PM [link]
Yesterday’s BMO Gold Weekly Report had some positives regarding IAMGOLD. So far today the stock is up to C$8.55 bid (+5.0 pct) and US$8.05 (+5.9 pct)
From BMO: "IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE:IAG, and TSX:IMG, C$8.06)
Outperform Target: C$11.00
IAMGOLD has released the results from 12 holes from its Westwood underground exploration program at Doyon. Consistent with the last set of results from January, the drilling shows the extension of mineralized zones on the west side of the Bousquet fault:
While several good intersections were reported and visible gold was observed in many holes; the weighted average intersection of the results appears to be relatively thin. The best results appear to have from the Northern Corridor Zone, which averaged 1.33m (true width) at 18.04 g/t.
The company is now preparing a scoping study for the Westwood project, which is expected in August. Currently, we do not ascribe any value to this project in our valuation."
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 1:56 PM [link]
speaking of pics, why not create a site for readers to post photos...sometimes it helps to "see" who you're blogging with...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 1:57 PM [link]
2nd_ave,
I dunno... Recently one of our regulars sent me two photos. One of her fishing in summer (in bathing suit), theother fishing in winter (bundled up). The latter was for real; the former apparently was a Hooters Girl (LOL). Great sense of humor.
I want to have fun, but we have to keep it real.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 2:05 PM [link]
Bill,
This is why /no pun intended, I would trust YOU to a mining fund. Anything to report on that front?
Posted by: jasper at
June 19, 2007 2:07 PM [link]
ANON asked a legit question.
"Bill, I saw near the bottom of your post on WGDF today that it said in bold "NO POSITION", I was confused because I think that means although you are a fan of the company for a while now you have no shares in the company?
Your Confused Longtime Fan"
My policy is that I will not compromise my objectivity by writing about securities I have invested in, unless they are private companies. The last thing I want to be known for is a person who moved markets to his personal advantage. Everything I write here is 100 pct objective.
Now, when I get licensed in Bahamas, and I know the client (thoroughly), and the client is counting on my earning profits, and paying for it, that is a different matter. But those communications will be professional ones between advisor and client.
I hope you understand. I write only to educate, to inform, to discuss, to meet new people, new ideas, and so forth. I don't write for money, but for the enjoyment of it. I don't mix business with pleasure. And this blog is my pleasure, rather than say golf.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 2:22 PM [link]
re: GRS - it is now showing up in Yahoo as Gammon Gold. Maybe that's why there was a delay/mixup? I guess they wanted a name change b/c "resources" is too ambiguous.
Posted by: rob d at
June 19, 2007 2:36 PM [link]
2nd_Ave,
Look at this posting from the BMD yahoo board 2 days ago:
"This stock will be $4 this week. Something big is going down, likely the announcement of the deal with Suncor from what my sources are saying.
Double up on Monday!
"
BTW, do you think it will go over 4 this week?
Posted by: JogyP at
June 19, 2007 2:46 PM [link]
OT - but useful
for those of you who do not like tinyURL (you never know what's behind the link...) or if you have a filter at work, here is a code called embiggen that will unTinyURL everything on a web page:
javascript:Embiggen={%22runNow%22:true}; var s=document.createElement(%22script%22); s.type=%22text/javascript%22; s.src=%22http://ghill.customer.netspace.net.au/embiggen/embiggen.js%22; document.getElementsByTagName(%22head%22)[0].appendChild(s); void(0);
copy the code and drag it to your bookmark folder or bookmark toolbar. then use it on any website to fix the tinyURLs. very similar to the wrap code published earlier.
Posted by: rob d at
June 19, 2007 2:53 PM [link]
JogyP,
Re BMD: I don't like to make ST price predictions because I'm wrong 2/3 of the time...long-term, it's becoming more of a no-brainer, right? they now have a long-term contract with Suncor (and are calling the first contract of its kind), so I think other major players may be announced soon, and there are no competitors who can come close to beating BMD's location or (if you believe their claims, and I have no reason not to) the quality of their of product...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 3:22 PM [link]
Bill,
OK-wouldn't look good if my wife caught me blogging with a Hooters Girl...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 3:38 PM [link]
JogyP,
Re the BMD posting on Yahoo: he calls himself "hawkguy"...and he seems to have a credible source...he had a 2nd post 30 minutes later stating he (and "iceman") planned to buy 100,000 shares Monday...I don't know about that, but I'm going to watch the site for further posts...being right ONCE isn't really going to do it for me, but he was correct on most of the details...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 3:47 PM [link]
Bill,
What do you make of GE's move? Is it a vote on the company or the country economy? Or, is it tied to acquisition of turkish banks...which is the most recent news story. Or, just a technical event. No matter, a monumental move.
Posted by: jasper at
June 19, 2007 3:58 PM [link]
TASR: will close at the high of the day...i remember playing the short squeezes on this stock when the homeland security guy (i forget his name) was holding a few hundred thousand shares...it can really rocket, depending on how many shorts there are..
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 4:00 PM [link]
2nd:
TASR $ 12.67
TASER International Inc. 0.55
Shares Short 14,459,000
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 6.4
Short % of Float 25.19 %
Shares Short - Prior 12,017,500
Short % Increase / Decrease 20.32
Posted by: RobBoss at
June 19, 2007 4:06 PM [link]
2nd_ave,
Re the Hooters thing, it was sent to me privately as a joke, but the point is the next one might not be, and I can't afford to take the risk.
re TASR, I agree it may be a short squeeze.
re: GE, it appears to me the company has become a part of Humungous Private Equity, as well as Humungous Media (WSJ, Barrons, etc to be linked to CNBC), and HB&B (GE Capital) and the Central Bank (Jeff Immelt sits on the Board of the NY Fed). Next in line, maybe Immelt's name is going to be put forth as Republican nominee for President of the US.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 4:24 PM [link]
2nd_ave:
Re: BMD posting on Yahoo
What I implied is this guy defenitely had inside information. He never posted anything previously on Yahoo boards.
People traded based on insider info (BMD was active last 2 days) can now use this post as a reason for their purchase. Or they have someone else post it.
Posted by: JogyP at
June 19, 2007 4:33 PM [link]
RobBoss-thank you...adding tasr to the watchlist, as lawsuits are getting dismissed left and right, and with Carmona on board, I don't see that changing...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 4:41 PM [link]
JogyP-I see your point..guess I need to look at things more cynically....
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 4:45 PM [link]
R sent me the following message.
Bill, I take (your statement about personal investing) to mean you are not invested in the Cara 100 either .. am I reading this correctly? and if yes, them my question remains, what is that you do invest in? /R
My answer: I invest wherever I think there is no possible come-back by anybody, most especially securities regulators. (As an example) I am presently looking at investing in a private gold producer, in a control position, that I may keep private and just flow through income to the investors in the form of cash or bullion distributions in some fashion.
I could have added that I intend to bring a lot of private placement deals to clients, and a Fund, when I am in a position to do that, and I will invest in anything I recommend to clients and will give advance notice of my intention to sell, if, as and when that happens, in order to give my clients an opportunity to sell before me or at the same time and price as me.
All this talk is premature, however.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 4:47 PM [link]
Re:TASR
my 2cents...
yes, I think shorts are part of it.
also, I read one writer recommending TASR, in anticipation of SARKOZY's victory June 17 in the elections in France as he had pledged to arm every one of the 200-250,000 members of the constabulary with a taser gun.
could it be?
regards all
joey
Posted by: joey at
June 19, 2007 5:37 PM [link]
BMD: hit 3.95 after hours...thought about it, but the bottom line is why sell now?
(1) it's the beginning of the summer construction season...i know stock prices supposedly discount the future, but in this case, i don't think anyone is able to get their arms around potential earnings for this company..no major broker follows it, and you would need to base everything on assumptions
(2) they have a 3 year contract with Suncor...terms are confidential, but we will have an idea of the impact on earnings by next quarter
(3) speaking of earnings, last was may 14, so next should be mid-August...the numbers could be a major surprise, and a major driver of the stock price
(4) 2 year chart gives you an idea of how fast it can move in a few months:
8/1/05 2.47
9/1/05 3.95
10/3/05 4.89
11/1/05 4.81
12/1/05 7.43
12/15/05 8.39 (peak)
am in fact thinking of adding to the LT position...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 8:04 PM [link]
KRY: consolidating nicely...500,000 block trade @ 4.42 last friday...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 8:24 PM [link]
The Vatican speaks out on road rage ("impoliteness, rude gestures, cursing, blasphemy, loss of sense of responsibility or deliberate infringement of the highway code") and irresponsible driving ("drivers use their cars to show off; driving provides an easy opportunity to dominate others by speeding; drivers can kill themselves and others if they don't get their cars regular tuneups, if they drink, use drugs or fall asleep at the wheel") by issuing the Ten Commandments for Drivers: http://tinyurl.com/2vuw56
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
June 19, 2007 8:45 PM [link]
Bill, is Midasco Capital Corp one in the same as WHY or does Midasco Capital have investments in other operations as well. Pinetree's press release mentions Midasco Capital Corp.
http://www.pinetreecapital.com/files/2007-06-19-Midasco.pdf
Posted by: RonK at
June 19, 2007 10:06 PM [link]
Re Midasco Capital Corp, sorry for the confusion on my part different company. Midasco vs Marasco forget the post, and the question.
Posted by: RonK at
June 19, 2007 10:21 PM [link]
Richard Suttmeier (rightside.com) holds 100% cash. Reason? He gives advice and doesn't want anyone to think that he might possibly be front-running in any way whatsoever.
BTW, Suttmeier forecasts a recession (defined as two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth) in 2007 - 2009, and a bear market for U.S. equities to begin this year. Usually the U.S. election period seems to keep the market afloat, but this time he doesn't think that's going to happen. He believes the U.S. stock market bear market will last straight through the 2008 presidential election.
He also said that he would not be surprised if GDP in current dollars is lower in 2009 than in 2008, something that has happened very infrequently: 1929 to 1933, 1945/1946, and 1948/1949. Thus, most of us have not seen this in our lifetimes.
Posted by: GemmaStar at
June 19, 2007 10:41 PM [link]
Bill, I don't mind YOU looking at me, but could you get rid of that other eye....
Posted by: GemmaStar at
June 19, 2007 10:42 PM [link]
GemmaStar, if you can rally enough support, the other eye will go. Otherwise, it stays. The eye is in your court.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 11:04 PM [link]
To all,
If the font size of the text across the Menu Bar is too small, please let me know. It's up to you.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
June 19, 2007 11:07 PM [link]
EYE hear ya!
Anyone else feel that way about the other eye?
If not, I'll just pretend it's Bill's eye. That will make me feel MUCH better.
Posted by: GemmaStar at
June 19, 2007 11:15 PM [link]
Eye doesn't bother me, Bill's pic I don't mind, but yeah, the text on the menus looks just a tad small. Doesn't bother me in terms of useability, but something about it doesn't look professional... maybe just a bit bigger, and possibly a different font? Maybe the same font as the title next to your face: 'Capital Markets and Social Equity'.
Btw, really like the differentiation of Cara comments.
One other comment I have is I think there might be a way for pictures to reserve all the screen real estate they will use when fully loaded as soon as the page loads. As I like to visit often and go to bottom of comments right away, it's kind of annoying to have the screen scroll away from me as pictures load. Not 100% if something can be done though.
For that matter, an additional link for each post on the main page to take you to the last comment might be a nice feature too :)
Thanks for all the good work Bill!
Posted by: proudPapa at
June 19, 2007 11:43 PM [link]
I, too, would prefer the banner without the solitary eye. It's too emphatic and disrupts the graphic integrity of the banner.
The image of Bill is situated well and should not compete with an extraneous (and symbolically 'loaded') eye peering through a small opening. The unconscious intimations are all negative.
Posted by: johojo at
June 19, 2007 11:48 PM [link]
proudpapa,
The images lack image size tags. I bet it's a problem, or perhaps configuration option, with the blogging software. I ran a web site HTML validator against a lot of the pages here and it flagged that as an error. I didn't forward it to Bill because I didn't think anyone would care. How interesting that you reported it just a few days later.
The eye? I hadn't noticed. I suspect it represents Bill's membership in the Illuminati. (that's a :-) ) in case anyone takes that comment seriuously.)
Actually, I like it. It's Bill 'keeping an eye' on the markets.
Mike
NYC
Posted by: MikeNYC at
June 20, 2007 12:00 AM [link]
Can the banner itself be a link to 'Home' without being an image map?
I'm just really used to clicking the banner on many sites to get 'home.' I've done it here numerous times.
Maybe it's just me.
Mike
NYC
Posted by: MikeNYC at
June 20, 2007 12:12 AM [link]
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Dear Bill,
Whenever I hit "contact us" on your toolbar thingy it never works. The results of the other options on that tab are inconsistent.
The other thing is, I used to be able to click right on your mug and get to the front page. Now that action does nothing.
This is weird but, in the old pic, I was always wondering what you were seeing (looking at) that I wasn't. in this pic, I feel like you're watching me.
Chris
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at
June 19, 2007 8:29 AM [link]