moin from Germany,

i think this one from Freddie says it all....

Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE - News) today reported a net loss of $211 million, or $0.46 per diluted common share, in the first quarter of 2007, compared to net income of $2.0 billion, or $2.80 per diluted common share, for the same period in 2006.

During the first quarter of 2007, the company recorded mark-to-market losses totaling $1.2 billion on items included in other non-interest income (loss), compared to a mark-to-market gain of $742 million in the first quarter of 2006

Credit-related expenses, consisting of provision (benefit) for credit losses and real estate owned (REO) operations expense, were $193 million in the first quarter of 2007, compared to $60 million in the first quarter of 2006. (up 221%)

needless to say that the stock is only a few percent asawy from a new 52 week high......

Central banks keep selling gold

Switzerland's central bank will sell
250 metric tons of gold before the end of September 2009 and use
the proceeds to buy currencies.
European central banks are allowed to sell as much as 500
tons a year under the so-called Central Bank Gold Agreement. The
Swiss National Bank's sales are within the agreement, governing
council member Thomas Jordan said in a faxed statement today.
The bank expects the sale to be worth 6.5 billion Swiss
francs ($5.2 billion) at current prices, Jordan said.
Gold has more than doubled in the past six years after
European central banks agreed to cap annual sales. Last year,
government sales fell to a nine-year low, according to London-
based research company GFMS Ltd. Earlier this month, UBS AG,
Europe's biggest bank by assets, raised its estimate of European
central-bank sales to 500 tons, from 400 tons, through Sept. 26.
``Our main source of income in the past years was gold
sales,'' Swiss National Bank President Jean-Pierre Roth said.

Crystallex International Corporation (TSX:KRY)(AMEX:KRY) reported today it has received notice from the Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana ("CVG"), that the requirements of the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources of Venezuela ("MinAmb" formerly referred to as "MARN") for the issuance of the Environmental permit to commence construction of the Las Cristinas Project have been fulfilled.

MinAmb, based on its approval of the Environmental Impact Study ("EIS") for the Las Cristinas gold project, requested the CVG to post a Compliance Guarantee Bond and pay certain taxes for the issuance of the Environmental permit. Crystallex has posted the bond and paid the taxes.The CVG confirmed that the approval of the EIS, the posting of the bond and the payment of the taxes represent the final and conclusive step in the procedure for the issuance of the Environmental permit to construct the Las Cristinas Project. Crystallex as the builder and operator of Las Cristinas will have use of this permit in order to construct the project on the basis of the approved feasibility study.In the formal notice that MinAmb sent to the CVG, it was stated that the Environmental permit will be issued following the payment of taxes and posting of the bond. The CVG now awaits the permit required for the construction of the mine from MinAmb.Mr. Gordon Thompson, Crystallex President and CEO commented, "The request by the Venezuelan Government for the posting of the Compliance Guarantee Bond and taxes further confirms our understanding that we've complied with the very final stage of the procedure for receipt of the environmental permit."

Very interesting gold chart posted on bigpicture.typepad.com yesterday.
Basically, it states that gold is following the accumulation process that preceded the previous gold bull mkt in 1971-1980.

Regarding KRY, I can only sit gape mouthed in wonder at the good fortune of our friend Chris (shark_attack) who bought just in time for this long-awaited news. Some of us are just born lucky, I guess. ;)

Thanks very much for keeping the discussion of KRY level, Bill. I expect a lot will be made of the fact that the permit has not officially been granted ... yet. I see a lot of June 5 calls that need to die a quiet death. Should be an entertaining day, nonetheless.

Leisa pointed out on her website the latest Henry Liu treatise (long, 2 parts)published in the Asia Times Online: A historical perspective on interest rates and currency de/re-valuation as it may effect or explain the current interest rate "conundrum."

Here is the link:
http://tinyurl.com/2yx5aw

This one might be a very interesting solar energy play. Less than a $150 mil market cap and over $1 billion in deals.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Energy company Hoku Scientific Inc. said Wednesday its subsidiary Hoku Materials signed a $678 million contract for the sale and delivery of materials to solar energy company Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd.
The contract has a 10-year term beginning in 2009, but allows either company to opt out of the last two years. It provides for the delivery of polysilicon, used to make solar energy panels, each year at set prices using a "take-or-pay" approach.

Under the terms of the deal, Suntech will pay an initial $2 million deposit and prepayment of $45 million.

Bloggers,

Bill wrote me a note last night and asked if I might come on the board here today and seek your support in helping rid our markets of member-induced fraud. Bill has been on my distribution list for Stockgate Today for some time and supports the efforts. At times Bill has posted my site and/or my editorials on his blog as he did yesterday.

I read one response from Mike NYC that rings true for so many in this market. Mike claimed, “I thought this could not affect me, being a small fry guy with not many holdings.” Fact is, big or small we are all impacted by the mechanisms of abuse set up by the SEC.

In yesterdays SEC webcast of the SHO reform proposals (June 13; http://www.connectlive.com/events/secopenmeetings/) count the number of times the SEC correlated the rationalization for the grandfather clause to limiting market volatility and controlling the short squeeze. It has to be more than a dozen.

Recognize that the SEC never addressed how these large persistent fails came into the markets, what impact these fails had on the market, and who held the financial liability of a short squeezed induced by the forced cover of the persistent fails. The reason they never addressed this matter is because the liability rests solely on the financial institution carrying the fail. These institutions sell massive levels of shares that do not exist and they accrue a liability on those fails. The SEC then does not want to force the settlement of these trades because to settle would rest in buy side momentum that would increase the liability of the firms.

Never once did the SEC talk about investors or issuers. It was about liabilities neither carried.

This process impacts you all even without your stock selection showing up on SHO. How many times have you seen a stock run up 10, 15, 20% only to retrace the profits mere days later. I can tell you that the retrace is market makers protecting the liabilities they created when they were selling into the run up. It happened to me just this past week.

A stock I own ran up some 14% last Friday on heavy volume. You could see the market makers trying to control the movement. In pre-market on Monday these very same market makers were selling down the bid and driving the market to open at a loss when the market opened. No seller would sell in this manner, selling before knowing whether the Friday enthusiasm would carry into Monday. On Monday 80% of the trades were lifted into the offer but the offer collapsed with the bids and by the end of Monday the stock had retraced 50%. Tuesday and Wednesday were more of the same and by Mid-Day Wednesday the stock had lost 110% of Fridays run up. The total Volume of M-W was less than that of Friday and 80% of the trades were at the offer but the stock lost all gains. The member liabilities were again reduced.

Before Crown Financial closed their doors a VP stated that the firm would never cover a bona-fide naked short at a loss. That means they either carried that loss for an indefinite amount of time or, more likely, they controlled the market to cover flat or for a profit. All at your expense.

I ask you to support these efforts I have undertaken. I have the support of Bill on this. If you listen to the SEC archive of yesterdays meeting you will hear of the progress others and I have made although our names are not directly identified. It was I who has obtained much of those FOIA requests they spoke of. Other statements made were also attributed to our cause and our efforts.

People can make a difference; we just have to try.

Thanks to all and thanks to Bill for his support.

Dave Patch
http://www.investigatethesec.com

Dear number2son,

I was born anything but lucky, but thanks for the kudos.

Chris

ALOHA !!

Patchie ... I signed your petition yesterday regarding "naked shorts"! I urge all readers here to do the same if you would prefer equity markets with more integrity and less fraud!

Thanks Bill and Patchie ...

I bought the laggards of the gold miners this morning, one major and one junior. GG and GRS. I really like the positive divergence between price and rsi on the latter.

fwiw, whenever i try to post a chart/tiny url i get blocked for review of malicious comments.

2nd ave: take a look at a 6 mos chart of ego in comparison to gld. Great correlation but with leverage. When gld goes to zero, ego does not overshoot downward. From the basis of price chart, KRC and EGO are my top picks among the miners listed by Bill in his bmo report.

Patchie - Great work! I think I have read elsewhere that petitions carry less weight than massive letter campaigns to Reps and Sens, but perhaps both would be helpful.

If we look at history for our guide, then the era of the "robber barons" comes to mind - a period with many similarites to today. I personally am not a fan of "labor unions", but unions in many ways forced changes in at least the obvious behaviors of "Barons" toward the common folk.

Bill is a proponent of "communities" working together. Perhaps, an association of stock holders who unite to work together (but not to bash heads and break windows - although that thought is tempting sometimes) could actually bring about change. Perhaps, if named "United Stockholders (US)", then the slogan "US against THEM! would take on some real meaning, eh?

Thinking further, a coalition of US (or whatever) with perhaps AARP and the parent of ConsumerReports (which I think is CU - Consumer Union) could bring both respectable data and some strong lobbying to the effort.

Being reared in the South, I have never joined a Union, per se, but something like a Stockholders Union I would definitely join and pay dues.

Good luck on your efforts!

Just bought more at 4.52..I see a bullish cons triangle i think it should be good for 5 today.

Spot, I too felt that way and we have engaged in the letter campaign as well. I even went to NY City and DC and set up petitions in front of the NASDAQ and the SEC building.

To give you a brief history of this petition:

The idea came about after watching a Senate fillibuster on Judiciary nominations back in 2004. Senator Leahy informed the members that he was there on behalf of his constituents and then began reading comments that his constituents had made on an on-line petition into the Judiciary nominations.

I figured I would try the same.

In the near 3 years that this site has up and running I have received web hits on a consistent basis from the SEC, NASD, NYSE, NASDAQ, Senate, House, Treasury, DOJ, Homeland Security, IRS, USPS, State Regulators and Congress, and many other state and federal agencies. Oh yea, media frequents the site just to see what I have to say which got me a spot on CNBC a couple years ago and a few invitations I later turned down

I received a memo from one state regulator that had told me that a multi-state task force was developed off these efforts.

I guess my bottom line is simple; people can make a change and can be heard even if it is not publicly recognized. If you look at that telecast out of the SEC yesterday you will see some of those I have met and some who have openly despised me for my efforts. But they also know that I am not going away and their mistakes will only escalate the issues as our efforts and forces grow.

I thank all of you for your support with a special thanks to Bill who extended an invitation to come to his blog to pass my message along. I will always try not to overstay my invitations but will always be willing to oofer guidance and assistance where I can.

Best,

Dave

Hello everyone,

Greetings, Chris----- I am in KRY too. But, don't know what to do now. Opine anyone ??? sell today or become an investor now???? what to do??? Pls. help to decide.

Thank you!!

Delinquencies Decrease in Latest MBA National Delinquency Survey
(http://tinyurl.com/ypn9yn)

A last piece of good news before the reset tsunami or a sign that the bottom has formed per the Bull case?

Dear Moneygenie,

You're the genie, you figure it out! Just kidding. Really, it kinda depends on you, your goals, and the price you paid. Answer these questions and let's continue.

Chris

moneygenie,

they dont have the environmental permit yet. But they received a letter stating all items have been met. in fact the letter said they needed to post a bond and pay taxes and then they would get it. But these have already been paid. so they are now just waiting for the piece of paper. its like you passing your DMV drivers test. all you need now is to get your photo taken and the ID card issued.

I suspect this AM selling was profit taking and related to the June options which expire this week. there are many people who are on the other side of the trade who were betting against crystallex. they need to save their mansions and ferrari right about now. dont forget lower price also benefits the soon to be bidders. best of luck to you.

very interesting the day KRY chose to announce, the day before options expiry.

Glad I bought some July 5's

I'm with Bill Cara. And thank you, Bill, for keeping me interested in this stock at a particular moment a few weeks ago when I might very well have tired of it on my own.

Chris..

Ok, Bear Stearns and GS start taking a hit subprime, how do they engineer a way to reduce the damages?
Hmm, rate expectations have been set to og higher, now, within about a quarter there will be surprise rate reduction so that the little people who are stuck in this mess (literally read BSC & GS) can be helped out of these horrible mortgages.
Ok, maybe this is not the way they reduce their damages. Do any of you see other ways that losses for HB&B can be reduced from bad mortgage paper?
They will engineer something, maybe it will be some kind of opposite position to offset losses here.
People, we really need to think big and olut of the box on this one. Thanks, Steve

Dear Bill,

Blessings upon you. Thank you for your generousity, you'll never know how much your work and willingness to share your knowledge reach into the ether and find those of us who are reaching out for help. Thank you.

This game of life is a scary proposition at best and I think that, the market is a reflection in a way. Yet, "To know thyself" is the key and anyone who realize this truth will prosper: because we are the master of our fate. The trick is, to stay in that awareness on a consistent basis, so that your energies do not become diluted as per
"naked shorting!!!"

Thank you again to all who share and give here.

PS: feel free to check this energy work technique, I do believe it can cure all ills.

http://tinyurl.com/3cta5n

Good Morning from the Puget Sound.
Thanks Bill for highlighting David Patch and his petition, I am on that list now.
Thanks also for this excellent blog forum where I can read the hysteria and disdain about kry (and others) and choose a middle path. It is enlightening to read what others are doing and then for me to realize I am not that nimble that I can get in and out quickly.
I am trying to read McMillians Options as a Strategic Investment. I would greatly appreciate more discussion of puts and calls. How and when. Is there a listing of that action?
TIA
peace
Gray
long kry,gfi,slw,wgdf,ticc,axca,luv

I'd recently sold all my KRY above 5. I was looking to pick some up again in the high 3s. But here we are, so I decided to take a small position at 4.5.

So the game plan is set for those who are already in KRY at their buyin prices of $2-$3. But how to play it from here? If indeed this stock will shoot up another 100% over the next little while when the permit is in hand and bidding wars start, why isn't everyone just loading up now?

Are you trading by a intraday chart? If so I think KRY is going to come to you at or near today's low or maybe lower. Vol and macd are still pointing south with RSI in the 40's-50's.

You might want to hold some ammo and shoot in alottments.

Of course I'm open to humiliation....

Fazeli and Craig,

I think people ARE loading up, the stock's done 14 million shares. And congratulations on your recent sale, buy the way. I love to hear about someone taking profits. I think your mistake may be taking a small position, as opposed to a medium-sized one. And Craig, All due respect, I don't expect that this stock will ever again trade below or even near today's lows, and that KRY will go up from it's consolidation here 440-470. and should go to or above 5 either today or tomorrow. I would be incined to hold and to add on weakness. It's what the pro's are doing.

Chris

Craig,

I totally agree. That's why I only spent about 30% of my total KRY funds at 4.5. I was watching the 15 min RSI-7 and 5 min RSI-7 and bought about 30 min ago.

I'll double down if we push 4.2-4.3.

Shark_attack,

My concern was that if this statement equaled PERMIT IN HAND, then we'd see a far larger pop in the stock. Also, there is a disparity between the TSX and AMEX listings of about 3.8% even though the CAN $ is down against the USD today. So I wasn't sure if I want to go 50% of total desired shares in one go.

Any thoughts on the disparity?

By the way, no one is chatting about Sage Gold Inc (SGX on TSX).

They're up 68% today on some nickel results?

"moneygenie, why sell KRY now? Let them actually receive the environment permit, and the permit to construct the mine, then you will see some of the Majors come in with bids, and drive the price even higher."

Why is that the speculator is seen to have the vision while the Majors do not? Why would Majors wait to make their moves at this point while individual speculators feast on the stock before the permit is issued? IMO, there is still far too little volume/price movement ( $50 M today )for me to think that anything tangible is imminent. I see a mountain of hurt and pain for many playing here today.

Oh there's lots of volume Chris, I'm talking about on the very short term intraday chart, although as we write it's leveling off. As I said, I'm open to humiliation.
I have a small position so I'm holding like the rest of you. BUT, I'm not in the losing money mood, so I'm patient and have gotten religion with chart discipline. When it says wait, I would rather miss out than chase. But, I'm also older than a lot of you and don't have the luxury of time so my positions on something like KRY are smaller and patiently chosen. I usually get run over when I chase.

Here's to all of you being positioned as you wish.

KRY: I have to side with the holders, don't let them take it away from you now...you'd be giving it away...as for why no one is "loading up" on it now, the game's too complicated...maybe they've already loaded up on it, maybe they want to play some more, maybe they'll be loading up on it when you're not looking, i don't know...but when you look back in a year, you will clearly see the buying on a chart...

Bill - In your comments this morning you said that that Traders will need a rising bond market to help kick start the PM rally. I've been watching both TLT and GLD today. Both are positive candles so far but nothing great, imo. I then noticed the volumes on TLT for the past six days as compared to the prior usual volumes and it looks to me that there is a LOT of quiet accumulation at least in TLT here - maybe a precursor of a big move in TLT and possibly in GLD as well?

http://tinyurl.com/yusk7s

Until there is a Cabinet-level announcement of the issuance of the permit and a mine contruction time line stated by MinAmb I will hold to my belief that the big cigars in Caracas will continue to direct their brokers to play against gringo day traders and speculators. This is a crap-shoot and I suspect the dice are loaded.

Ah Seniore Terry,
While we all share some degree of your concern, do not the big cigars also understand wealth?
Their actions would indicate some degree of understanding, and that they can seize farmland with *farmers* and succeed, but digging very deep holes in the ground and extracting mineral wealth, they know it but they lack expertise.

Their desire to enrich and empower themselves must overcome the desire, how ever overwhelming it may appear, to screw that gringo trader Terry.

They have much bigger fish to fry.

btw, anyone watching GFI......do you know where your money is? Seatbelts?

Following our discussions regarding the BMO Gold Charts from two days ago, I've read up on Gammon Lake Resources (GAM)(GRS) and had a look at the charts. The stock price has dropped significantly from its highs and is close to the accumulation zone. My take is that the only reasons not to buy it are:
1) You think the price of gold and silver are going down. 2) It's boring and you don't want to buy and hold. 3) You have no free money. Otherwise, Gammon looks like a worthwhile investment. I currently have no position.

Wishing I had taken a larger position in GFI, but hey there's a lot more stocks out there. I got 33% of my total allocation in at 15.68. I was actually hoping for some lower dips to buy on but I won't cry over 4% or so in a few days!
Long GFI

Hello All,

It is kind of bizzarre, when you think about it. The chances of this permit happening went from whatever they were yesterday to about 90% certain, right? And yet, the stock cost more a few days back when no one knew if they would ever get the permit. Strange. The risk/reward has totally changed in the stock's favor. I will probably add more today barring a collapse. And maybe then as well.

Chris

gfi went down for a reason before, was my thinking...in the back of my mind, the cost of production was suddenly much higher than what was posted in bmo, and hence the recent pricing pressure prior to today, but congrats. There is a report expected in the near future about exploration in a remote area. Perhaps there is a leak. Gfi is in south africa...the country etf is a way to get some exposure/eza.

News from 6 weeks ago:

By Todd Flagg
03 May 2007 at 04:42 PM GMT-04:00

St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- A drop in production for almost all mines owned by Gold Fields [NYSE:GFI], the world’s fourth largest producer, resulted in reduced revenue and profits during the third quarter, the company reported today.

“This quarter has been extremely challenging for Gold Fields,” said Ian Cockerill, chief executive officer of Gold Fields. “All operations with the exception of Driefontein showed a drop in production due to a combination of lower grades, volume and a slow start up post the Christmas break in South Africa, while Choco 10 continues to suffer as a result of water shortages.”

Attributable gold production for Gold Fields’ mines decreased by 3% from 1,015,000 ounces in the Dec. 2006 quarter to 989,000 ounces in the March quarter. Attributable production at the international operations decreased 8% from 363,000 ounces to 333,000 ounces.

According to Cockerill, Gold Fields has been extending shafts in the South African mines that resulted in higher costs and production instability. Cockerill added production is not the only concern for the company. Even a booming gold market could not offset costs for maintaining personnel and production costs that have contributed to the shrinkage in profit margins.

“Unit cash costs have risen as a result of lower production,” Cockerill said. “While the increase in the rand gold price achieved more than offset the lower production resulting in a 3% increase in revenue, we are very focused on ensuring that our shareholders get the benefit of a higher gold price through increased earnings.”

Gold Fields reported total cash costs increased to $652/oz compared to $555/oz during the same quarter last year and $609 /oz last quarter. Operating costs increased from $386 million to $439 million, an increase of 33%.

The company also reported that the weaker rand also contributed to the increase in costs as translating costs at the international operations into South African rand accounted for $24 million of this increase. Total cash costs for the company increased 16% from $344/oz to 399/oz.

Craig,

You said "Their desire to enrich and empower themselves must overcome the desire, how ever overwhelming it may appear, to screw that gringo trader Terry. They have much bigger fish to fry."

Is it possible that "the cigars" can have their fish and eat it too? Maybe what you are buying they are selling.....short. They control the agenda and the timetable. How many weak hands have already been taken out by this multi-year coaster ride? There's really only one trading strategy here: buy and hold until it either becomes a mine or worthless paper..... the ultimate gamble. Hardly what one can call investing.

Congrats to Chris and KRY holders!
There is a shooting star from yesterday on USD
chart and if oil moves up I think we could get
a PM move up. More on Moly:

http://tinyurl.com/yqafo6

KRY CEO Gordon T. on BNN/Robtv.

I am sure they will replay it on their web site in 30-60 min. http://www.bnn.ca/

Terry,
Ask yourself, given that you obviously think Chavez is untrustable scum, what you would do if you had an entire country full of resopurces and a bunch of other countries, capital and mining companies trying to get to those resources......quantity unknown, but you SEE the capital and effort so you know it's sizeable.

Do YOU short that for a few pennies?

Some of us may miss the bigger picture, but no matter what you think of Chavez, he didn't get this far being stupid. IF he wants the mine(s) and resources he has to issue the permit and put the mine in operation, or, if he is as you think, he won't be able to steal and sell it later and all the other mining capital would bail as well. It's not going to happen.

To all,

I want to thank all of you that went over to www.investigatethesec.com and signed the petition. We got a big hit on the site today thanks to all who wandered over. Your additions were witnessed by several at the SEC who also frequented the site.

I would encourage you to continue to wander over every now and then to see what new items we have listed and to direct others over to sign up [and comment] and to read up on the issues we face.

Again thanks to all and a special thanks to Bill for suggesting I come back on today.

Dave

Replay now available for Gordon T. on bnn

http://tinyurl.com/2boy2a

Western Goldfields Announces Completion
of Term Loan Facility
􀀹 All required agreements executed for $105 million term loan facility
􀀹 Gold forward sales contracts entered into at $801 per ounce
􀀹 All reclamation bonds now in place; all operating permits active
􀀹 First draw expected by early July 2007
Toronto, Canada, June 14, 2007 – Western Goldfields, Inc. (TSX:WGI, OTC BB:WGDF.OB) today announced that all requirements needed to make the facility underwritten by Investec Bank (UK) Limited and Commonwealth Bank of Australia available for drawdown have been met. In connection with this term loan facility, Western Goldfields has executed flat forward sales contracts for 429,000 ounces of gold (Hedging Contracts) at a price of $801 per ounce. The Hedging Contracts represent a commitment of 5,500 ounces per month for 78 months commencing July 2008, with the last monthly commitment deliverable in December 2014. By entering into the Hedging Contracts, Western Goldfields has now satisfied or received a waiver on all conditions precedent to the availability of the term loan facility. All reclamation bonds have been posted and all operating permits from the relevant agencies have been received for the Mesquite Mine expansion. The first drawdown from the term loan facility is expected in late June or early July 2007. All currency amounts are in US dollars.
Western Goldfields expects to produce between 160,000 and 170,000 ounces annually during the term of the Hedging Contracts. Pursuant to the Hedging Contracts, approximately 66,000 ounces will be sold annually at a price of $801 per ounce, leaving approximately 100,000 ounces annually leveraged to the gold price. Western Goldfields has entered into the Hedging Contracts to allow it to draw $87.3 million against the term loan facility. The $87.3 million is the estimate of debt required to expand operations at Mesquite. Western Goldfields has no current plans to hedge further production from the Mesquite Mine.
“The completion of our financing and entering into the forward sales program allows us to expand mining and construction at the Mesquite Mine in California consistent with our commitment to our shareholders,” reported Brian Penny, Chief Financial Officer. “The Mine is fully funded and fully permitted, and we are very excited to see Mesquite coming to life again.”
Western Goldfields, Inc. is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and trades under the symbol WGI, and is quoted on the OTCBB under the symbol WGDF.OB. The Company currently has 113,631,153 common shares issued and outstanding and 143,106,483 shares of common stock on a fully diluted basis. For further details, please visit www.westerngoldfields.com.

I think the hedging numbers are very favorable for Western's future and a necessary part of the loan facility.

Bought more off someone at the close, $4.48

Lovely day with KRY and plan to keep.
Other PM's look good on charts and I have been picking up a few: tgb, azk, tie.
Has anyone else noticed the break out in DBA?
This is an ETF that is not stock based so is non-correlated.
As Bill predicted, looks like a break out for commodities from a rather nice, long base.

Craig,

I have never made comments depicting Hugo Chavez as "untrustable scum". For the record, I see him simply as a nationalist who has the cajones to go wherever and do whatever is necessary on the world stage to turn the tide of foreign domination over his country's resources and economy. Sure, he's unpredictable but he's no Omar Kadaffi. My reference to the "big cigars" is the army of the middle-level bureaucratic elite and ministry functionaries who have their own agenda as to when Las Cristinas will get into production and who will own it ( their friends, their country ).

Not to make your workload any larger, but i was reading itulip.com and found this in today's post:

>

Given this info, is HOV going to stay in the Cara 100? I am curious as to why it is still in there.

Thanks for all the hard work Bill and sorry I could not figure out the Fidelity screen you wanted earlier. Hope you found what you are looking for, though. If you need a few more, may I suggest Canetic, Westshore Terminals, and TimberWest for the Cara Income 100? Looking forward to the expansion.

Whoa - where dis most of my post go? The itulip.com part was cutout, here it is:

Bloomberg just ran an article on how everyone is looking at financials and saying ‘gee, based on valuations, financials are the cheapest they’ve been since 1996.’ Easy credit has created this gain-on-sale love-fest and they’ve extrapolated it like in any bubble.

Ken Fisher and a lot of other money managers have been telling people to buy the homebuilders because based on price/earnings and price/book this is one of the cheapest sectors in the marketplace. But book value is misleading because land values are highly inflated. Most of the big builders were constantly acquiring land and other builders, assuming interest rates would never go up and we’d have this mass influx of people and the demand for housing would keep increasing. Now they’re writing down their land, which is an impairment to book and could go on for the next three or four years.

Hovnanian [a leading homebuilder] has taken earnings estimates down twice in the last 40 days. They posted a loss before impairments, so on an operating basis they’re losing money. This is an example of people catching falling knives like tech sell-off of 2000-2002. ‘We’re gonna buy these things because they’re cheap,’ but they can get a lot cheaper.
MBIA, the municipal bond insurer, looks cheap at 11x earnings and 1.4 x book value, but when you look at the balance sheet, which very few people look at today, you see that it’s levered 94 to 1. The statutory capital that they keep on hand is 3.5 basis points of their bond guarantees. Compare that to Citigroup, which has almost 9.5 basis points of reserves. Ten years ago just 14% of MBIA’s business came from structured finance guarantees on asset backed securities. Today that number is 32%. Of course the structured finance world is all based on numerous assumptions, including stable interest rates and low default rates. We would say that those are very generous assumptions.

My previous comment was meant to convey my belief that there is no conspiracy between HB&B and the fed to manipulate financial markets. I do not believe that the market is that organized. In my opinion, most of the traders on Wall Street are not smart enough to pull that off. This is not to say that one firm cannot move stocks, or even markets, with trading designed to push a stock up or down for their benefit.

My point is that they don't care who is on the other side of a trade, just as I don't. It doesn't matter. What matters to me as an individual trader is risk aversion and profit. When I see stocks being played I stay away. The day will come when the powers that be decide to move on to another shell game (stock) and let the stock they have been playing drop into oblivion. Wall Street is fickle. Let's be careful out there!

My biggest grip is about how small shareholders are being crapped on through corporate bankruptcy's and private equity buyouts. K-Mart is a prime example. Bankruptcy wiped out shareholders, including the jobs and pensions of thousands of employees (which I was not one of). Sears Holdings then makes a fortune by selling K-Marts real estate. It turns out that this real estate was much more valuable than the book value for Bankruptcy purposes.

Companies file for Bankruptcy and the OLD shares get cancelled. When these same companies emerge from Bankruptcy they shower the same corporate exces who ran the company into bankruptcy with millions of NEW shares. This should be illegal.

Double Top Breakcout on Oil

http://tinyurl.com/3ahnp4

PMs should get a boost soon.