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June 25, 2007
Cara’s Daily Commentary, Mon., June 25, 2007, 8:18 AM
Market Chat
‘Interest rates and credit worries’ screams the Reuters headlines as global market prices weaken this morning. Could this be the start of the Big One, finally? SEE PM ADDENDUM
That’s the problem with the definition of a Bear market. It is an historical phenomenon. You can’t see it until it has already happened.
Arguably, wiki is a wonderful service. Of course, its detractors will say that the text is not independent or objective, and in some cases that’s true. I discovered that, for example, Rupert Murdoch is a “global media executive”. A corporate executive, however, is an employee. Nowhere could I see that Murdoch is being profiled for what he really is, which is a Gnome. You see, Murdoch works for nobody but himself.
When you ask wiki about “Bear market”, you will get some mumbo-jumbo about market trends and phases. “Bearishness,” however, is not the definition of Bear market, although the contributors at wiki may not appreciate the difference.
They do not appear to be well versed in financial markets at all. I chuckled, for example, at this statement: “Rupert Murdoch has an estimated fortune of around a million, billion pounds.” It appears that wiki figures that Murdoch is richer than Canada. Whether or not he is more influential is a moot point.
About Bear market, Investopedia says, “Although figures can vary, a downturn of 15-20% or more in multiple indexes (Dow or S&P 500) is considered an entry into a bear market.” Now, I have the greatest respect for Investopedia, but what does “entry into” mean? Are they suggesting that a Bear phase that reaches contracting proportions of “15-20% or more” on its way to possibly a cycle low of 50 pct from the high is the correct definition, “although figures can vary”? What nonsense.
If you can’t adequately define the terms “Bear market” and “Bear phase”, then what hope do the owners and managers of capital really have. Maybe it’s not a capital market after all, but a casino. And maybe this isn’t real money, but debt instruments that we are trading?
And why do people call it investing and not trading, anyway? Even wiki does a good job of that.
We all invest in goods and services, but, in capital markets, we trade prices, unless of course the ‘we’ happens to be Rupert Murdoch.
Speaking of prices, they are mostly down this morning in Asia-Pacific and European equity markets. That’s how I started this blog, but as you can tell I get out of bed too early this morning and my mind started wandering. It happens.
So are you putting your money down on Red 7 or Green 3 today? That, I suppose, depends on whether you are bullish or bearish. We all know it’s a casino, and we know the Gnomes own the casino. What we don’t yet know is whether this is a Bear market. Mathematically, we’ll have to wait for the proof of that.
Yes, this could be the Big One, and then again maybe it’s not.
Only the Gnomes know for sure.
Btw, I was thinking this weekend that in a broad market Bear phase, it’s always a good time to be searching for the hidden nuggets of companies that might be flying under the radar. As market prices generally decline, the babies usually get thrown out with the bath water. That’s the time to do your best homework.
Underway right now is a Team Micro – about 50 volunteers from the Cara Community – who are trying to identify those future market winners, the ones whose stock price will rise say five times over the course of the next three to five years.
“Karl” who is heading up that project asked me to look at nanotechnology. He sent me a list from a publication he had been reading. I thought, let’s put this out to the “experts” – meaning you, you and you. Let the wisdom of the Cara Community determine the future winners in nanotech.
Here is the reading. Download Fortune-Nanotech file
Here is the list.
Have at it. Let us know what your thoughts are. After we have narrowed the list to maybe six, we’ll have Team Micro take the job from there.
Ultimately, these might be good companies to invest in – I mean, trade. (LOL)
International Economics Review
Econoday Weekly International Report
US Economic Calendar for next week
Econoday report on the US Housing Starts for MayMon. June 25: report to come on US Existing Home Sales for May
Wed. June 27 report to come on US Durable Goods Orders for May
Thurs. June 28 report to come on Final 1Q07 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Fri. June 29 report to come on US Personal Income & Outlays for May
Global Equity Markets Review
Here’s the closing data of the Asia-Pacific equity markets..
There was widespread selling today in Asia-Pacific markets.
Here’s the chart of the Japanese Nikkei 225..
The Nikkei Dow lost -101 points (-0.56 pct) today.

Here’s the chart of the Shanghai equity market..
Shanghai lost -150 points (-3.7 pct) today, which is a serious loss.
That selling wave started late in the session last Wednesday, dropping -8.35 pct in just over three full trading sessions. So China is getting a dose of the Wealth Effect In Reverse.

Last week, I remarked in this space, “The problem with all international markets today is that HB&B manage all these international ETF’s that trade in USD in the US. When HB&B want those markets to plunge, all they need to do is sell the ETF’s, and force the sale of the underlying shares. “
I suggested that maybe these ETF’s for countries and major sectors are not as free-trading as some might think. I like the fact that computer algorithmic trading makes them liquid, but they are also vulnerable to interventionists like the Fed and others who have different motives than the Buy-side.
China and other countries have to be concerned that foreign interventionists could easily start a “run on their banks” as it were. That is good reason for me to say that, while I think the process of globalization is a good one in principle, there are checks and balances that must be put in place.
For example, HB&B’s primary regulators are the Federal Reserve Bank of the US, and the SEC and other US regulatory authorities. This is a game of control, not serve and protect. Besides, in no way do the US authorities have any intention of serving and protecting the little people of China, India or any other country, nevertheless their own.
And GE relies on the US authorities, and its CEO sits on the Board of directors of the NY Fed. GE owns one of the leading financial media properties, CNBC – the one most of us refer to as the Clown Show because it is so biased to US vested interests, and so manipulative.
Checks and balances are needed, as I say.
Here’s the chart of the Bombay India Sensex 30 index..
The Indian equity market (BSE 30) was up +20 points (+0.14 pct) today.
There is a lot of enthusiasm for the growing sophistication of India’s capital markets. The recent IPO’s are very large, and successful. The companies are well managed. Clearly, the global picture is changing to where all traders must look to India as an important part of the whole.
Here’s the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Stocks are weak again in Europe today (as of 8:00 am ET). The problem, as I say, is that traders are getting tired. They are also getting concerned about credit system risk. They are selling bonds hard. Yields are popping.
Individuals and companies need to be closing down their debts, and protecting their assets. That means selling highly leveraged assets.
As long as M&A stories, and share buy-backs and higher dividends are not front and center in the news, this negative about credit risk, which presently is still a small one, could quickly turn to be a big one.
Here is the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks
The Cara Global 100 RSI-7 Studies
Using data from “Chris” – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which he takes from Worden, the Cara 100 Company stocks that are below 30 on the Daily RSI-7 are as follows:
Here, from “David” (as soon as available) are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest and lowest Daily RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for the previous session. “David” was on seminar this week.
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with highest RSI-7 with Monthly-Weekly-Daily all either >70 or <30
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with RSI-7 Daily all >70 or all <30
ADDENDUM
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Spot gold at 10:09am ET today is 649.40, down from about 654 at midnight ET.
I continue to believe that the risk today is to be out of gold (or short) and long the $USD.
Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.
At 10:10am ET this morning, the Spot silver (AG) was 12.84, down from 13.03 at midnight.
I continue to believe and say, “I think this (pull-back) (is) another buying opportunity.
Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.
This morning at 10:10am ET, Spot platinum is at 1274, down sharply from the midnight open at 1292.
I continue to write, “I remain positive despite all the screaming around me.”
Here is the Recent Spot Platinum chart.
Palladium (at 10:04am ET) is at 364, down from the 372 open at midnight ET.
I still think “We need to see a 372 floor before PD will lift. Prices are rising. I anticipate traders will try to hold a 372 level as a floor for a day or so.”
I did believe that 368 would be history, but after this test of the floor, I continue to believe we will be looking at 380+ in the next week or two.
Here is the Recent Spot Palladium chart.
Community Chat
I will be busy today. I do hope to get a chance to read an article from the Hindu Times about an alternative asset class called “Gold”. Hmmm.
Today my steps will also lead me to lunch with a Greek shipping company. TSAKOS Energy Navigational (NYSE:TNP $69.65) (http://www.tenn.gr). I am told that this company's fleet of oil tankers earn $975,000 each day, after all costs… Interesting. Sounds like something a Gnome owns.
Here from David Olive’s column in today's Toronto Star:
Quotable tycoon
"I'm reminded of something Disraeli once said in Parliament: `Honourable sir, it's true that I am a low, mean snake. But you, sir, could walk beneath me wearing a top hat.' "
– Media baron Rupert Murdoch, currently bidding for Wall Street Journal parent Dow Jones & Co., in a riposte to Ted Turner, who had just called Fox TV Network founder "the schlockmeister."
I say, can’t we all just get along?
Actually the Fox Schlockmeister appears to be zeroing in on a close to a take-over of Dow Jones & Co (Wall St Journal, Barron's etc). Oh my!
Btw, if the INO.com service goes back online, I will update the latest PM studies as an Addendum to this report. Obviously there is a sell-off this morning in Oil, Precious Metals, Base Metals as well as most other aspects of the market.
Finally, I have taken TraderWizard.com "live". Now I can start to work on edits, and applications. TraderWizard.com will be the site where the Cara Community will be able to register for free research and to purchase the book and premium reports, conferences/workshops and the like that I shall be offering.
As someone wrote me, "You are obviously coming out of retirement." Well, my response is that there is so much more to living in The Bahamas than laying on a beach. There are so many opportunities to invest capital there, which I can direct, that I decided to get licensed by the regulators and take a leading role in attracting international capital. So, yes, I am, after almost seven years of true retirement, going back to what I do best.
There is so much to do, and so little time remaining. We only live once I am told. (LOL)
The blog will always be free, and improving. Many of you are sending me letters to tell me what new services you'd like. BCara@BillCara.com
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 25, 2007 08:18:13 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary
Discourse
Moin from Germany,
they are using the "d" word.......
BIS warns credit spree could produce 1930s-style depression
The Bank for International Settlements is warning that years of loose monetary policy have fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump is than generally understood, the U.K.'s Telegraph newspaper reported on its website. Virtually nobody foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the crises which affected Japan and Southeast Asia in the early and late 1990s. In fact, each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a 'new era' had arrived", the bank was quoted as saying. The BIS, the ultimate bank of central bankers, pointed to multiple worrying signs, including mass issuance of new types of credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system, the report said
if the shanghai composite goes down from here, then frank barbera timed the "peak" close enough for me (june 25 +/- 1 day)...of course, there is a day or two remaining for his 4500 call to play out (ie, what if we rally hard today > asia rallies even harder tonight)...so we could go either way here..
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 9:14 AM [link]
gold opens down 0.8%..but silver (which bill labeled the "tell") down 1.95%...gonna have to watch it
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 9:32 AM [link]
A psychologist/trader I admire has this to share about a health crisis and trading lessons: http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/06/three-life-and-trading-lessons-from.html
A MUST READ!!!
if goldman is indeed trying to prop things up with GM, maybe DXD is the better play right now...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 9:50 AM [link]
2nd,
I think Mark ment that GM is the easiest way to push the Dow with almost no money ( only $20 billion marketcap)
1 $ = round about 7-8 dow points.....
Morning Bill,
I suppose you're readying your swimming trunks and your big rubber ducky-ring for your journey to Nassau. I don't recall you mentioning this, but you're still gonna be a Candian citizen, right, just in case the water rises faster than Al Gore is anticipating? Be safe and happy on your journey. A good friend of mine who I met on my previous vacation points out that in the Bahamas, the vegetation grows wild all over the place and is susceptible to "spontaneous harvest."
I must say, sitting here for 8 sessions watching KRY under minor pressure has been terrible for me, as I have almost zero patience and more importantly, sees me in the position of the "hopeful inestor", a role I vastly prefer not to play. So this is something new. If I didn't believe in my heart, I wuld be outta this thing faster than the Circuit City crew at quitting time.
Chris
Have a safe and happy trip
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 10:10 AM [link]
News Flash!
Dateline Bloomberg: U.S. Bill Rally Says Bush Is Doing `A Heck of a Job'
http://tinyurl.com/3d7tmx
That's enough to make me laugh in spite of a market that is totally and blatantly being juiced this morning.
LONG SDS
Posted by: agaunv
at
June 25, 2007 10:15 AM [link]
Existing home sales came in pretty much as expected. A bit higher than the consensus for total sales. But the big news is inventories are at 15 year highs and median price is down.
Remember, this is a lagging indicator. The new home sales released later this week reflect more recent home buying activity.
I don't believe housing news is going to move the markets either way as the consensus seems to be that housing stinks and will continue to stink for the forseeable future.
Now, news about lenders and the mortgage industry ... well, that a different story.
Posted by: number2son
at
June 25, 2007 10:16 AM [link]
Don´t worry
Everything is "contained"...until it isn´t :-)
Bonds: More like, nobody wants the long end so we will buy the short end very much thank you!
Damn I cannot wait for that "Major Foreign Holders" report next month.
Posted by: agaunv
at
June 25, 2007 10:18 AM [link]
News division of HB&B is hard at work spinning this AM.
You have the GM upgrade, a healthcare upgrade and Chevron upgrade on top of positive news on oil prices due to easing of Nigerian situation, and our friends in China announcing they will keep the "bulk" of foreign exchange in dollars.
Something like whipped air. No substance.
Posted by: Craig
at
June 25, 2007 10:19 AM [link]
Chris, regarding KRY ... consider why you bought this stock in the first place. The fact that it has been under pressure since the large spike should not alter whatever reason you had for buying.
Honestly, what did you really expect to happen in this interim?
Posted by: number2son
at
June 25, 2007 10:20 AM [link]
nice reversal...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 10:22 AM [link]
Chris,
Thanks for the support. Yes, I will always remain a Canadian citizen. As with other citizens of the British Commonwealth countries, taxation is based on domicile. My domicile will be The Bahamas based on (i) permanent residency status, and (ii) the place where I reside, and do business.
Americans can get tax benefits from having an offshore domicile, but certainly nothing like the ex-pat Canadians, Aussies, Brits, South Africans, Indians, etc.
Anyway, the lifestyle choice was my driving motivation. I don't have a problem with taxes. While Bahamas has no Income Tax legislation of any kind, the jurisdiction does have fiscal needs. Residents and visitors pay extra customs duties and transit fees, and so forth. Ex-pats also pay a very large work permit fee.
You get sliced and diced wherever you go. It's the cost of living. So, for me, having a choice, I'd rather just live in The Bahamas.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
June 25, 2007 10:28 AM [link]
TGAL...
If anyone is following this nano company, do they happen to have an opinion about Ramtron/rmtr? Ramtron is a likely customer of TGAL. Ramtron is positioning themselves to have their proprietary technology, fram, in TI's cell phones. At one time Ramtron was considered to be close to the holy grail of memory storage...i.e, no battery required. This is a classic story stock that hit the moon, then came plumetting back to earth, and then after their come up'ings may have another life ahead itself.
Posted by: jasper
at
June 25, 2007 10:29 AM [link]
Market bouncing today, but wonder if it will hold. "Everyone" is expecting the market to rise into quarter-end so the funds can report good results and try and keep the gravy train rolling, but, if everyone is expecting it, wouldn't the the path of most pain would be down? Also, the CFTC reports that speculative shorts in the S&P500 e-mini dropped from 250,000 contracts last week to under 50,000, so it appears the speculators are positioning for a rise as well. Haven't done anything yet, but thinking of adding to my short positions into this rise this morning.
Also, good news out of Goldcorp this morning http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/ROC.20070625.2007-06-25T123002Z_01_WNA0213_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-GOLDCORP-RESERVES-COL/GIStory/
Posted by: bb
at
June 25, 2007 10:29 AM [link]
Now TV traders are telling us subprime housing is "priced into" the market.
Where can we buy the drugs these talking noggins must be ingesting? I made it through the 60's and 70's and I've never seen anything quite this hallucinogenic. And we thought there was trouble back then?
Geez, even acid heads that thought they were turning into oranges had a better grasp on reality.
Posted by: Craig
at
June 25, 2007 10:30 AM [link]
2nd:
"nice reversal..."
You may have to repeat that line a couple of times today.
Posted by: JogyP
at
June 25, 2007 10:42 AM [link]
Sensing a lot of downside potential in KRY just now, I've sold out my positions and am now planning to re-enter on a break down toward the gap, which, for your guys' sake, I hope doesn't happen. I want the permit too, but I can't just sit here losing $.
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 10:42 AM [link]
chris-i've been in your shoes a few times, and i'm sure you're feeling much more objective now...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 10:49 AM [link]
Yes, it is very liberating getting out. Now here's my fantasy. Before waving arms and adoring crowds, the dictator appears in a balcony above a piazza and unfurls a scroll.
"The decision on the mine is......No.
He then folds his arms and frowns at the adoring crowd. The wires buzz, and within seconds the ask goes to a buck. i buy the entire company and then the dictator smiles and say
"juss kidding....the gol-mine es approoved!"
bY the wy, is that 2nd ave NYC? (former upper-east-sider here)
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 10:57 AM [link]
KRY:
Street.com's upgrade last friday is a joke:
"It has been upgraded to a hold from a sell. Despite an increase in cash flow of 1.65% in the first quarter of 2007 compared with the same period a year ago, the company is growing at a slower rate than the industry average of 261.8%. Net income decreased 17.6% in the same quarter compared with the same period in 2006, dropping to $6.7 million from $8.2 million"
This upgrade is most defenitely generated by a computer program.
BTW, I am looking to add around 4.2 today.
Posted by: JogyP
at
June 25, 2007 10:59 AM [link]
MER, GS, BS Down, that's all that you need to know.
I read somewhere last night that BS was selling GS because of GS margin call on BS. LOL.
Wow that is a lot of BS and GS in one sentence.
Anyway, back to what I was stating, this bounce is meaningless. If it were for real the HB&B, HPEC, and XBD would be up solidly!
Posted by: agaunv
at
June 25, 2007 11:00 AM [link]
Jogyp,
I guess, but I'd feel better getting in at 4-oh something, just above the gapper. I'd sleep a little better tonite.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 11:03 AM [link]
chris-re the 2nd_ave moniker: actually it's based on one of my favorite ballads from 1974 (which in turn is based on his experience while living on 2nd Ave in NYC)...the recording by composer Tim Moore is undoubtedly out of print, but other artists have done cover versions...
KRY/UXG/BMD/WGDF-you could almost "make your year" rotating from one to the next...but you'd have to get the timing down just right...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 11:10 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
HIGHER LOWS AND HIGHER HIGHS ...
The 200 year comodity cycle is on the move UP!!
From Marc Faber ... its plain to see where to put your money! Only problem is Uncle Sam and HB&B do not want you to. In their eyes "investments" backed by their debt paper is KING. Would you expect a Toyota dealer to sell you a Harley?
I give you the 200 YEAR CYCLE ...
Link: http://www.nowandfutures.com/download/commodity_cycle1803-2003aden011507b.gif
As World population and M3 expands so does the demand for commodities. People no longer will settle for a dirt hut and "witchety grubs"! It seems the Third World is awakening to the fact that they sit on most of the resource wealth and the First World needs a lesson in Empire and humility.
One of the most impressionable books I ever read was a short story I was "forced" to read as an English Literature student at UNI in Western Australia entitled "Shooting An Elephant", written by Rudyard Kipling. To me that defines the arrogance of Empire. Read that and you will see, in the simplest of terms, why it is the destiny of Empire to fail.
As you view the Marc Faber chart you will notice commodity cycles defined by wars and collapsing Empires. When Empires collapse so does their monetary value.
Posted by: kaimu
at
June 25, 2007 11:16 AM [link]
Great (short) article in the Toronto Star today regarding Americas difficulty coming to terms with its shrinking world dominance, and the damaging ways in which it is trying to postpone the inevitable:
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/229004
Also, another great article regarding Ontario's support of solar thermal energy.
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/228987
Who's done research out there on companies offering solar energy equipment and services?
Posted by: Fazeli
at
June 25, 2007 11:27 AM [link]
Number2son,
What I honestly expected to happen during this interim was for the stock to basically rally on the altered risk-reward perception. Was that unreasonable?
(sorry, didn't see your Q before. )
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 11:33 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
Just so people can see what collapsing Empire money looks like check out the value of the British Pound going back to 1791 ...
Link: http://www.nowandfutures.com/download/BritishPound1791-2004.png
Posted by: kaimu
at
June 25, 2007 11:33 AM [link]
agree with "bb" on the odds of end-or-quarter finishing down (maybe way down) rather than the usual...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 11:41 AM [link]
"end-of-quarter"
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 11:41 AM [link]
Chris, fair enough. I expected weakness in the absence of news of the final permit. I also expected very low volume. I haven't been surprised on either score.
That said, your sale this morning is looking good so far. Good luck on your next trade.
Posted by: number2son
at
June 25, 2007 11:43 AM [link]
Bill, "Checks and balances?"
We have those. No problem.
That is, if by 'checks' you mean viscious cross-checks over the boards while the ref stares up at the ceiling, and if by 'balance' you mean 20 fat guys on one side of the see-saw passing a big pizza back and forth while the little guys just dangle off the other end, hoping for some crust!
From today's NY Times on the just-released report on what went wrong with Amaranth:
"In a hearing on Capitol Hill today, Senator Carl Levin, Democrat of Michigan, who is chairman of the subcommittee that conducted the investigation, is expected to draw attention to the lack of regulatory oversight of ICE.
Among the report’s recommendations, the report urges Congress to “reinvigorate” prohibitions against excessive speculation, provide more funds to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and close the “Enron loophole,” a provision in the Commodity Exchange Act, requested by Enron in 2000, that exempts crucial energy commodities from government oversight.
“Current commodity laws are riddled with exemptions, exclusions and limitations that make it virtually impossible for regulators to police U.S. energy markets,” Mr. Levin said."
That hearing ought to be quite Shakespearean, if by Shakespearean I mean “A Tale Full of Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing”!
I'm going to see if I can download that report somewhere. Apparantly it dissects their trading patterns and it ought to be very interesting.
These guys, this guy, ought to never work in the securities industry again. The strategy seemed to be "corner the market and double, triple, quadruple down on losing bets." When NYMEX finally stepped in and suggested they lighten up their number of contracts, they rolled them over to ICE to avoid oversight.
At what point is this just willful disregard of good practices? I guess the Ferrari was paid for and the Chateau in Canada didn't have a mortgage and it's all just OPM anyway, so let's go all in! (um, if by 'all in' I mean I'LL go all in with YOUR money!)
kaimu, how is your hedge fund coming along?
:-)
Seriously, there's room for starting a fund there, making large accumulations of farmland, no? I'd invest a portion of my pittance with you in that.
Fazeli, I know not who has researched solar companies, but I hope there are some quality solar technologies in the CaraMicro100.
Regards,
Mike
NYC
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
June 25, 2007 11:54 AM [link]
Nice reversal.....
Posted by: Craig
at
June 25, 2007 12:16 PM [link]
"I continue to believe that the risk today is to be out of gold (or short) and long the $USD. "
Mom&Pop Speak:
"Keep the gold and trade $USD for more AU/AG"
Posted by: C.Note
at
June 25, 2007 12:20 PM [link]
NGAS: for those who trade the stock, may be a good point to re-enter...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 12:34 PM [link]
2nd,
Why would this be a good entry? The charts aren't helping....long or short term. I don't get this one.
Posted by: Craig
at
June 25, 2007 12:58 PM [link]
Valgold (VAL) has taken a 10% hit today and let me back in.
Posted by: Fred
at
June 25, 2007 1:20 PM [link]
Put me with Craig on NGAS. I don't see a technical entry point on my charts either. 2ave, what's the thesis?
Posted by: MarkM
at
June 25, 2007 1:29 PM [link]
the "thesis," such as it is, is everytime i see a gap down on NGAS (via watchlist), it invariably recovers...it's been awhile since i've played it, so maybe i need to look more carefully at the recent trend...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 1:45 PM [link]
Mike, here's one for you to research:
ASTI
solar play , NHY just increased their stake here to 35%
Posted by: jasper
at
June 25, 2007 2:05 PM [link]
BSC dropping fast. down $5.50
And Dow in "Trend reversal"
Posted by: JogyP
at
June 25, 2007 2:17 PM [link]
Jogyp,
It's starting to look like maybe you're right about the 420 level.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 2:20 PM [link]
Isn't it time for the "Nice reversal" comment again?
Posted by: MarkM
at
June 25, 2007 2:30 PM [link]
or not.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 2:37 PM [link]
chris-re kry, are you setting a limit in the 4-point-0-something area?
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 2:38 PM [link]
Chris:
Going to wait on KRY. You may be right about 4.0x.
Sold SDS (May be too early)
Thinking of getting into MS for the Discover spinoff run.
Posted by: JogyP
at
June 25, 2007 2:42 PM [link]
I'm not really locked in to any exact level, it'll depend on the price action. Could be 4. Could be 3.90. Could be here at 4.15.
I try to stay flexible. and it's all manual. No presets.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 2:48 PM [link]
Does anyone know why KRY is down so much today? I could not find any negative news. Is it just due to price of gold and shareholders tired of waiting on permit. I am still holding...Thanks for a response.
Posted by: jc173
at
June 25, 2007 2:55 PM [link]
That was such a sweet drop. I wussed out, and bought some at $4.08
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 3:06 PM [link]
chris-congratulations, you made the right call this morning...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 3:08 PM [link]
Thanks...2nd_ave...I think the water's safe now....he he he
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 3:18 PM [link]
So I read a lot yesterday morning and last night before and after the kids and wife were in/out of bed, watched the world markets for a bit, read some more...
Put in another order for some more SDS that would execute 1st thing this morning...
And all I can say is OH YEAH, OH YEAH! Who's your Daddy?
Posted by: agaunv
at
June 25, 2007 3:24 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
I have said that I am waiting for a POG under $600USD, which I also believe would offer some good buying opportunities on PM shares. That is a rule of thumb ...
Soemtimes, as I have said in the past, great drill results or other great news events will trump the POG, especially on juniors! Look to Aurelian for an example of that ...
To me PMI GOLD-PMV.V/PMVGF.PK is too good to pass up and with assays less than ten days out and "other factors" I decided to spend some cash and I bought another 30,000 shares. Sometimes waiting to buy in at 5% or 10% lower can cost you a +50% gain!
The PMI GOLD story in a "nutshell" ... Imagine finding gold in a gold mine ... what are the odds?
PMI GOLD Link: http://www.pmiventures.com/s/Home.asp
Posted by: kaimu
at
June 25, 2007 3:25 PM [link]
Even though I am a newbie, I think that I am starting to catch on to this here investing/trading stuff! Sorry, just tickled with myself that the GM Pump and Sellside liars this morning are NOT WORKING!
Posted by: agaunv
at
June 25, 2007 3:27 PM [link]
Agree with you Kaimu, we may see some more downside or if on the other hand we start to see "Meaningful" action to the upside on Gold and miners then buy the trend.
Or if you have liquid nitrogen in your veins as Bill has alluded a while back go ahead and buy now and just stay LONG. But set your downside stops and be careful, CB's are not out of tricks, however Hank and Ben may be getting short on tricks themselves!
Posted by: agaunv
at
June 25, 2007 3:33 PM [link]
GLD seems to be tracking, today, with TNX, that is, 10yr Yield started dropping thought the night to a lower than yesterday point, and GLD opened with a gap down. Both rebounded some, then this afternoon both dropped again.
Wonder if someone is running rumors over at the Futs pits that the Fed will be lowering rates because Inflation is "contained", or whatever?
spot
Posted by: spot
at
June 25, 2007 3:40 PM [link]
bought more at four-twelve and change.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 3:44 PM [link]
agua-
I am. I bought at up 114. ;)
Posted by: MarkM
at
June 25, 2007 3:49 PM [link]
I bought DXD into the close. This market looks ready to fall hard.
Posted by: number2son
at
June 25, 2007 4:02 PM [link]
I agree with you number2son.
the double top in the DJIA daily chart looks like it's coming around like nobody's business. Hope it holds 'till you-know-
-who gets their you-know-what...
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 4:07 PM [link]
chris-just glad to see you in a good mood, man...wish i had picked some more for a play, but i had a meeting...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 4:09 PM [link]
Hi Bill,
What would likely happen to the price of gold assuming the subprime problem morphs into a larger structured finance crisis?
Regards,
Posted by: Noodle
at
June 25, 2007 4:31 PM [link]
Regarding NGAS--That has been hit hard. I have some UNG (8% loss), and I sat on my thumbs today rather than buy any just yet. The first whiff of clockwise winds will send that up. Commodities, though are getting hit. I bought a some SMN (double short basic materials)on Friday.
Re DXD: I bought 5 lots of 200 shares throughout the day today (my spidey senses were speaking to me) @ an avg costs of 50.29. I sat on my thumbs again and elected not to sell at eod. My thesis is that the ASian markets will not look kindly on today's failed bounce, so I may wish to have these in the a.m.
But, I've a good track record on being wrong!
leisa,
smn...only aoubt 2k bought today and friday. How hard was it to get in re bid ask spread? Having a double short at every peak in this market aint' bad idea, and sell'n at major support.
Posted by: jasper
at
June 25, 2007 5:30 PM [link]
I never try to pick the bottom, I wait for the bottom to be established, then I take a half-position when most adventageous in the seconds or minutes thereafter. It's much more important that price is moving with you than that your big fat ego be gratified by picking the exact bottom. Only when the price exceeds my buy point by a percent or so and all is moving along nicely charts-wise to the upside do I buy the other half. If you do it right, the price never again crosses your buy point.
Permit, anyone?
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 25, 2007 5:46 PM [link]
Re: SMN-i've been using SDS to hedge against my LT PM/oil portfolio, but maybe SMN will work better. is there a proxy for shorting the PM sector?
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 5:55 PM [link]
Jasper--yes, SMN is VERY thinly traded, and I thought long and hard before entering. But the bid ask on many of the better traded ones are wide as well.
2nd Ave and chris
Are you guys old enough to remember the 2nd Avenue L? Elevated train that used to run up and down the ave.
I was probably 12 when they tore it down, too bad, great public transport.
But it was loud as hell and disturbed all us upper East side folk.
What a day in the markets.
Out of blind luck, I started to take some profits this morning in my PM miners to raise cash for fear that the 'baby with the bath water' scenerio was approaching. Then, as the markets reached their silly heights (and because I was reading about it here, thanks all), I started adding to my Ultra Sht. Etf port. I have had a great couple of weeks with SRS, but today added SKF, SDP, some more SDS, QID amd DXD. I am still waiting for an entry on SZK.
Wow, timing was terrific.
I now feel that the few opportunities that I continue to hold in PMs (TGB, KRY, WGDF, etc.) are fully hedged. I am comfortable with my bullion holdings. I am still holding out faith in DBA, and very close to going short the yen (FXY). Will now let the wind blow and, hopefully, be able to trim sails accordingly.
What a week we have ahead of us!
Good luck to all.
Posted by: Rigdon
at
June 25, 2007 6:28 PM [link]
The lunch was awful, but I really enjoyed the presentation by Paul Durham (CFO) of TEN LTD (Tsakos Energy Navigation) (NYSE:TNP). The stock is $69.75, but trading at a significant discount to Net Asset Value (which is about $100). I'd buy it in the next Bear market because (i) I expect the share price to come off with the broad market, and (ii) I think they will earn over $10/share and pay over $3.00 in dividends. The stock will likely be split this year. All in all, TNP is a good one to research for income oriented accounts. I would consider writing the Jan-09 (18-month) $60 puts to take in premium of $7.30, meaning that essentially I'd be prepared to buy this stock at $52.70. I'd love the dividend yield at that price.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
June 25, 2007 6:39 PM [link]
Bill,
I apologize if you've heard this before or maybe even commented on it. The title of your book jacket cover on the Home Page uses the word "from" and all references to the book use the word "of".
Posted by: Fred
at
June 25, 2007 6:45 PM [link]
Noodle asks, "what would likely happen to the price of gold assuming the subprime problem morphs into a larger structured finance crisis?"
First of all, I do expect to see a structured finance crisis inside the next three years.
Next, I believe that to stave a liquidity crisis that would result, the Fed would be required to print massive amounts of fiat money, which would drive down the value of the USD, and push the value of real money (ie, gold) up into the $1,000-plus range.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
June 25, 2007 6:46 PM [link]
Fred,
I just asked the publisher to make the change -- at the same time they had to change one of the three boxes at the bottom of the cover.
One of the Cara Community felt strongly about that change from "of" to "from". The publisher replied that grammatically either is ok. So just to show that I am flexible as well as receptive to your ideas, I made the change.
I was going to bring it up, but I figured (thanks Fred) one of you would do it for me. :-)
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
June 25, 2007 6:52 PM [link]
FXY--Scaling in . . on Friday made a second buy at 80.63 of anticipated 3-4 purchases of FXY. Believe there will be additional opportunities in July, perhaps August, by which time BOJ may have to react. Also, Tankan business survey due then.
Meanwhile, sub prime mess and accelerating the printing of money may move the dollar down quicker, although Bernacke & Paulson will play their games until it no longer works.
Carry trade still alive, awaiting it's unwind.
Posted by: Seamus
at
June 25, 2007 7:09 PM [link]
Kaimu,
I completed my due diligence on PMV.V and agree with you.
While investing in the speculative mining stocks I am trying to steer clear of the stocks where they think they have something. There are plenty of them out there and you end up chasing your tail, jumping from stock to stock, trying to get in the best one when the first one doesn't move fast enough.
I tend to do much better when I can find a stock where they actually have something + also has the speculation, then stick with it.
PMV has the something (an old mine) + good speculation with a 53m (40m true width) mineralised intersection that is currently being assayed.
This intersection is about 300m below the pit. The powerpoint on the PMV website shows a 500 m long zone below the pit includes the following intersections above the latest drill core.
2m @ 12.9 g/t
8m @10 g/t
11m @ 5.3 g/t
50m @ 6.4 g/t
4m @ 10 g/t
and then 100m below the intersection is 24m @4.3 g/t.
So yes I think they already have something and they also have great prospectivity. A lot of the hard work has been done before the mine shut down due to low gold prices. PMV.V fits my buy criteria
So thanks Kaimu. I am now the proud owner of 100,000 PMV.V shares
Posted by: Aussieontop
at
June 25, 2007 7:33 PM [link]
Looks like we are on the same things Seamus, I have also a position on FXY in at 80 and change, for the same reasons.
Also, I found that two huge Brazilian meat and other producer trade on the NYSE: Perdigao (PDA) and Sadia (SDA). Both make terrific products (and tasty). I am not sure about these entry points now as they have gone up quite a bit. If there is a correction, Brazilian stocks will be severely beaten, at which point these two will be handed to us, and then to go to new highs. That's the way I am playing it at least.
Thx for Cresud BTW.
Posted by: SiO2
at
June 25, 2007 7:38 PM [link]
I see further weakening of bullish percents on the NYSE and SPX and of stocks over their 50dma. New lows rising. Hussman is also noting internal deterioration in his latest missive. So far this is not indicative of anything other than ST pullback as A/D line still looks really good. I think it needs further credit problems to tip this into anything greater.
Posted by: MarkM
at
June 25, 2007 8:09 PM [link]
Ultrashorts: maybe SCC is a better bet than SZK? With all that MEW drying up Walmart, Target, HD, etc will be hit hard. Coke and pepsi are the last thing Joe and Suzy Public will cut back on. At least that is the thesis I am operating under in owning the SCC rather than SZK. Thoughts?
Posted by: GTT
at
June 25, 2007 8:44 PM [link]
leisa has a nice table listing the ultrashorts on her blog http://theperplexedinvestor.blogspot.com/
thinking of trading in SDS for DUG...as jasper pointed out, the volumes can be low, although i see the average volume on DUG is higher than that for SMN by a factor of 10...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 9:36 PM [link]
Kaimu:
"I was "forced" to read as an English Literature student at UNI in Western Australia entitled "Shooting An Elephant", written by Rudyard Kipling."
I too was very impressed by "Shooting an Elephant" when I read it many years ago in college. BTW, the author is George Orwell,, not R. Kipling, believe it or not. It was one of his short stories.
Cheers.
Posted by: beisman69
at
June 25, 2007 9:51 PM [link]
"Shooting an Elephant" by George Orwell: http://tinyurl.com/2mva54
Posted by: johojo
at
June 25, 2007 10:01 PM [link]
Re BMD: Davenport reiterates "Buy" rating June 21, with target of 5-7...of course, this contrasts with their October 2005 18-24 month of 12.50...
Birch Mountain Resources "buy" (New Ratings)
Thursday, June 21, 2007 3:20:44 AM ET Davenport & Co. NEW YORK, June 21 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Davenport & Company maintain their "buy" rating on Birch Mountain Resources (ticker: BMD). The target price is set to $5-$7.
Jun 21, 2007 11:25:38 GMT
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 10:28 PM [link]
Re: "second avenue"
just for the heck of, googled it and found the original tim moore version in cd format...you can sample it at:
lots of great music and films came out in the early seventies...i still have original copies of neil young's "after the goldrush," keith jarrett's "koln concert," herbie hancock's "maiden voyage," a ton of stuff by joni mitchell...never get tired of watching gene hackman in "the conversation" or "french connection..."
when "second avenue" came out in the winter of '75, i was back in school in ann arbor after having dropped out in '74...my roommate and i hitch-hiked from michigan to los angeles in the dead of winter (with no money, of course), i even remember spending our first night in sleeping bags underneath an overpass outside joliet...seemed like everyone was on the road back then...so for some reason that song just takes me back to 1974, which was a good year for me...
where else can you read stuff like this on a financial blog...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 10:41 PM [link]
“I did not even know that the British Empire is dying, still less did I know that it is a great deal better than the younger empires that are going to supplant it.” George Orwell. Copyright 2003, george-orwell.org
This is so true in a very personal way. I was born in a british colony and when empire died, we were subjected to the CIA / world bank imposed tyranny.
Posted by: moneygenie
at
June 25, 2007 10:50 PM [link]
One morning I shot an elephant in my pajamas. How he got in my pajamas, I don’t know. (Groucho Marx in Animal Crackers, 1930)
Posted by: DancingWithBulls/Bears
at
June 25, 2007 10:58 PM [link]
BMD: 90,00 more options granted @ C$3.12 on June 14 than previously reported: http://tinyurl.com/22pbr7
btw, Charles Hopper was granted 237,500 options. So who's he? "Charles Hopper is a Managing Director of Lehman Brothers, Inc. of New York and has more than twenty-five years experience in the financial industry. During the past four years at Lehman Brothers, Mr. Hopper has been responsible for private client services asset management. His principal focus has been developing, marketing and managing products utilizing internal and third party asset managers in both traditional and alternative asset classes. Mr. Hopper was previously associated with Morgan Stanley and Company, Inc., The Northern Trust Company and was a Founder of Graystone Partners, a Chicago-based investment consulting firm. Mr. Hopper brings a broad range of experience to the Board in finance and capital markets."
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 25, 2007 11:02 PM [link]
2nd_ave : If one can hear what the lady is saying then surely one can watch the world go by as it does regardless of our insistence upon meaning.
Both Sides, Now by Joni Mitchell
Rows and flows of angel hair
And ice cream castles in the air
And feather canyons everywhere
I've looked at clouds that way
But now they only block the sun
They rain and snow on everyone
So many things I would have done
But clouds got in my way
I've looked at clouds from both sides now
From up and down, and still somehow
It's cloud illusions I recall
I really don't know clouds at all
Moons and Junes and Ferris wheels
The dizzy dancing way you feel
As ev'ry fairy tale comes real
I've looked at love that way
But now it's just another show
You leave 'em laughing when you go
And if you care, don't let them know
Don't give yourself away
I've looked at love from both sides now
From give and take, and still somehow
It's love's illusions I recall
I really don't know love at all
Tears and fears and feeling proud
To say "I love you" right out loud
Dreams and schemes and circus crowds
I've looked at life that way
But now old friends are acting strange
They shake their heads, they say I've changed
Well something's lost, but something's gained
In living every day
I've looked at life from both sides now
From win and lose and still somehow
It's life's illusions I recall
I really don't know life at all
I've looked at life from both sides now
From up and down, and still somehow
It's life's illusions I recall
I really don't know life at all
Copyright © 1969; Siquomb Publishing Company
Printed from the official Joni Mitchell website: JoniMitchell.com
Please respect the copyright owner by not profiting from this document.
Posted by: moneygenie
at
June 25, 2007 11:25 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
beisman69 ... I was wrong about "Shooting An Elephant" since Orwell was the author. It was Kipling who wrote "The White Man's Burden", which we also were "forced" to read that year! Our class was heavily into Imperialistic tendancies as it was during the Vietnam War.
Yet I did manage to read Orwell's "Down And Out In Paris And London" on my own without any "force" ... another diatribe against the "powers that be"!
It seems the "little guys" today, like all of us here at this blog, have a lot in common with Orwell and the "little guys" of the past centuries! What an epic struggle ... us "little guys" just want to be treated fairly and live freely and the elite always want to control and dominate us sending us off to war and steal what little wealth we have accumulated! How did things get so messed up? Ah, tis the dream of a simple life that hasth led me astray!
Posted by: kaimu
at
June 26, 2007 1:14 AM [link]
moneygenie,
Re "Both Sides Now"-Joni was always ahead of her time, even in her younger days...that and "Circle Game" sounded like they came from someone way ahead of you...after returning to Ann Arbor, I (like most kids) grew up and settled down. And started to look at My Dad (now retired and living not far from me down the Peninsula..an engineering professor at Michigan at the time) from the other side...
since we're posting lyrics
Second Avenue
T. Moore
Since we can no longer make it, girl,
I found a new place to live my life.
It's really no place at all,
Just a hole in the wall, you see.
It's cold and dusty but I let it be,
Living here without you,
On Second Avenue.
And since our stars took different paths,
I guess I won't be shaving in your looking glass.
Guess my old friendly grin,
Must have started to dim, somehow,
And I certainly don't need it now,
Still, I keep smiling through,
On Second Avenue.
I can still see you standing
There on the third-floor landing.
The day you visited we hardly said a word.
Outside it was raining,
You said you couldn't be staying,
And you went back to your flowers and your birds.
Since we can no longer see the light
The way we did when we kissed that night,
Then all the things that we felt,
Must eventually melt and fade,
Like the frost on my window pane
Where I wrote, "I Am You,"
On Second Avenue.
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
June 26, 2007 7:36 AM [link]
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Goldman trying to prop up the market with a laughable tactical trading call on GM. What nonsense. Let's see how far that goes.
Posted by: MarkM
at
June 25, 2007 8:28 AM [link]