Hi Bill,
The comments section at the bottom of your page shows "signed in" I have to press "post" in order to be be prompted to be signed in. Great action on WGI today, looks like it is getting some respect finally, thanks for the heads up. The site is looking more and more fantastic. The Trading Wizard I find excellent, eagerly awaiting more... Cheers

Moin from Germany,

just what the world needs...more risk appetite from central banks.......

Seventy-four percent of central banks surveyed by Zurich- based UBS AG this month said they increased their holdings of asset-backed securities, emerging market debt and other higher- risk securities this year. In the next year, 68 percent plan to add more, according to the survey, which covers banks that oversee 91 percent of the world's foreign-currency reserves.

WGDF: Completes Term Loan Facility

looks like good news, vol and price UP, thanks bill!

HMY...good vol too ,no news but a laggard showing best move up among them...wish I could say the same for GRS...oh well, for me that's why i have a basket with a little help from bill and bmo for selectivity.

John Nadler indicated on the Marketwatch web site that gold supply was increasing by 450 metric tons per year from 2007 to 2012. Many others use a declining supply in the future to support the case for a rising gold price. Who is right?

reposting as I put this on yesterdays thread kinda late :)

2nd_ave, another approach for playing a melt-up might be to take your profits then buy in with some long dated calls. That way if prices crash, you just lose the premium, but if they melt-up further, you can ride along. Of course you'd still need to time your exit on calls.

Regarding FXY investment. I'm trying to wrap my head around how the yen will react in the event of a Nikkei crash that Bill is expecting to lead world markets lower.

On the one hand I see money leaving Japan as international investors pull out, or Japanese investors diversify. This would seem to lower demand for yen and drop the price.

Alternatively, investors might flee to bonds for safety, increasing demand and prices, but lowering yields thus further encouraging the carry trade and keeping downward pressure on the yen.

Is there any reliable correlation between stock market performance and currency? Doesn't seem to be as CDN$/TSX move in same direction, but yen/nikkei and US$/Dow are moving in opposite directions.

Any thoughts on what might happen with the yen if Bills scenario plays out?

Thanks

Good Morning Bill and the Cara community. IMF, I agree. With (imo) volatility rising and bubbles bursting with increasing frequency, is it just the forcast of reduced gains in the future that is driving more financial institutions into risky business? I feel like the Gnomes are driving faster and faster up Magic (pie in the sky) Mountain. Us... who are on the bus, heave a great sigh of releif at the last near crash only to have wasted our opportunity to jump off the bus! Borrowers did not invent the sub-prime mess but they are in it...and the rest of us.
To Bill..please step back from the blog. At least until you are on the beach. Just have a minion (lol) post a sentence or your smiling face to give us a place to comment and congregate. The changes are great! I can't assume technical challenges and failures that crop up in my online experience are any of your fault or the fault of the new blog. Please get back to us when you have the time.
peace
Gray

wgdf...may try taking a detour during summer break for the kids to visit the mine...

2nd_ave,

They have some good pics up of it on their website, if you haven't already seen. I got in at 2 bucks on thursday, right on time, it looks like. But we will see what the summer holds.

Anyone like Aurelian at these levels? I do.

ALOHA !!

Inflationary datapoint ... Today FedEx "fuel surcharge" went from 12.5% to 13.2%, a 5.5% one month increase. We will not increase our prices but will absorb the increase by decreasing profit! MY GOD ... would Amazon do that?

By the way we still give Bill Cara readers a 5% discount on flower orders.

Link: http://www.kaimuflowers.com/

ECU SILVER
ECU.V ECUXF.PK

On June 5th, last Tuesday, the Hedge Fund "Galtere International" acquired 1,142,857 shares via warrants. Last time I reported on this Hedge Fund their share ownership was 5,207,726 which was the largest institutional shareholder at 2.5% of total issued shares.

Once I find out what Galtere International current total share ownership is I will report it. So far, I have no evidence the Fund is selling any of its shares on the open market.

CHINA TAXES

Well, China is not wasting any time in moving up to the BIG LEAGUES when it somes to "taxation without representation" ... something the two-party aristocracy(US government-Reps & Dems)has perfected to a science! Now it seems the Chinese government is fast teaching the American "wealth pirates" a thing or two!

China Preparing to Double Resource Taxes
By Interfax-China
15 Jun 2007 at 10:14 AM GMT-04:00

SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- Central government authorities are preparing to double resource taxes covering oil, natural gas, coal and other mineral resources by changing the presently fixed tax rates to a percentage-based scheme that would take into account resource prices, a tax expert told Interfax today.

The move is aimed at better allocating the huge profits created by resource price hikes to local governments and curbing excessive exploration and production activities, especially from small and inefficient mining companies , said Hu Yijian, a tax expert with the Shanghai University of Finance & Economics.

Link: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=33000

We have corrupt governments in Africa with the BEE fees(Black Economic Enterprise)running at some 10% to 26%, depending on each country. Here we have China moving to increase taxation based on speculative supply and demand. Seems like anywhere there is excessive profits corrupt governments immediately swoop in for their "fair share"! All this does is create less profit margins that in turn causes less production and higher prices ... as if monetary inflation were not enough!

Its the age old game of making the responsible and productive people of the World take care of the irresponsible an unproductive people. There is no group of people on Earth as irresponsible and unproductive as politicians! Transferance of wealth via "taxation without representation" on a global scale.

What fiat currency is safe? None ...

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

HELLO EVERYONE,

ANYONE HAS A COMMENT, OBSERVATION RE. KRY ?? I AM QUITE BAFFLED BY THE STAGNATION, NOT ONLY KRY BUT MOST OF THE GOLD STOCKS IT SEEMS TODAY.

I THINK I'LL JUST TURN OFF AND WAIT TILL MORNING.

THANK YOU AND DO HAVE A PLEASANT DAY !

moneygenie,

i don't think there's anything wrong with kry...every stock has its own rhythm, and we are definitely not in a position to discern what that is...nothing moves as expected in the short-term, or traders would always be right...right?

I am thinking the slow trading in KRY and other gold stocks is because of summer doldrums and general uncertainty. The last correction caught most gold bugs by surprise. Prices are coming to you.

Great news from WGDF/WGI:

Western Goldfields Announces Production Ahead of Schedule by Three Months

2007-06-18 13:31 ET - News Release

TORONTO, June 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Western Goldfields, Inc. today announced that it has pulled forward gold production at its Mesquite Mine to January 2008, three months ahead of schedule. Estimated average annual production is 160,000 - 170,000 ounces of gold for the period 2008 - 2015. In addition, the Company announced that its prestrip mining commenced in June 2007. All currency amounts are in U.S. dollars.

"This acceleration of production is very exciting news for our shareholders," said Randall Oliphant, Chairman. "This marks an important step in the transformation of Western Goldfields from a developer to a producer - only 22 months after our management team joined the Company. The completion of our financing and entering into the forward sales program, announced on June 14th, allows us to move forward rapidly with mining and construction. We expect to realize cash flow from operations much sooner, with a full year of gold production in 2008, which should translate into enhanced shareholder value."

Three of fourteen Terex 205-ton haul trucks have arrived at the Mesquite Mine site, along with two O&K RH 340, 45 cubic yard hydraulic shovels. The shovels are fully commissioned and one is currently operating. All other critical mining equipment has been assembled and commissioned. These steps will allow the Mesquite Mine to ramp up production quickly as additional haul trucks are delivered, commissioned and put into service.

Under this new production schedule, estimated average cost of sales has increased from $335 per ounce to $350 per ounce for the first eight years of the mine plan. This increase is due to the operating costs associated with the purchase of one additional truck, the escalating cost of employment insurance in California, and enhanced employee benefits.

Initial capital costs are estimated at $108.6 million, unchanged from previously announced estimates. The mine life was lengthened to 12 years from an initial 9-1/2 years due to the increase in gold reserves. As a result, life-of-mine capital costs have increased marginally from $112.5 million to $114.9 million, due to increased estimates for fleet rebuild costs over the extended life of the mine.

Western Goldfields, Inc. is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and trades under the symbol WGI, and is quoted on the OTCBB under the symbol WGDF.OB. The Company currently has 113,631,153 common shares issued and outstanding and 143,106,483 shares of common stock on a fully diluted basis. For further details, please visit www.westerngoldfields.com.

Forward-Looking Information

WGI's (TSX) spike in price was due to Gold production being moved forward by 3 months to Jan 08. Trading was halted on the news, and has resumed, stock up 14%. I thought we read the news here a few months back :-).

Kaimu,

I remember asking your opinion about GOR.V a while back, which operates in China, as it was one of the mini incubator companies of that one fellow whose name has slipped my mind.
You replied that you were not interested in owning companies somewhere with this type of geopolitical risk, and then I read this post on the new Chinese tax today, which will no doubt affect companies of this nature. Nice clairvoyance you have.
Thanks for all the great posts.

On another note, I see on my screen that the WGI press release was at 1:31 pm. Yahoo did not show any news this morning on the stock, and yet it had surged around 9% already by the time I checked the ticker at 11. Is there some way that people knew beforehand and were bidding it up in anticipation of the news, or was I the last one to the party, and the premium news sources print this stuff first??

proudPapa-yeah, the one thing i worry about is pressing the long-term move only to see a short-term crash...so will give your idea serious consideration...

rig and oih will close at new highs once again...oil prices closing in on 70...hope to hear the media talking about oil sands again, which should give bmd a boost...

{As the Empire crumbles...}

A seminar from lawyers on how to make sure one doesn't have to hire an American worker

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/6/18/22435/0365

Bill. 99.9% of the people know nothing about HB&B and the Gnomes. They just want to get on with their lives, make a decent salary, get a nice house and put their children through school. Obviously from what I read on here they are very naive.

Bill you need to become a nationally syndicated saviour to get the message out. The other 0.1% will continue to call the shots and the masses will grovel at their feet. I believe this has been the case since time immortal.

About the Nikkei 225:

Hi from Portugal:

As anyone noticed, the way a Hi/Low/close chart look like the last 3 trading days in this benchmark.
As far is I now is very very unusual: it's like 3 up islands!

What does it mean? (if anything...)

The site tells me I am signed in. I write something, try to post it and am then told I have to sign in. I do, but my message is then lost and have to write it again. Frustrating.

There appears to be an interesting disconnect between POG and the miners. POG has done nothing and yet some of my PM's (WGDF, SA particularly) have performed quite well.
I have heard it said that the miners lead bullion prices. I hope that is true.
I also think that there is some quiet, low volume position taking going on before an expectant move up in the commodity prices.
Traders have read the CPI and PPI numbers and know that the spin is BS. Inflation insurance is being bought.

Bill,
Being the contrarian that I am, I cannot help but to wonder at the latest campaign from the "gurus" and talking heads, newspapers, etc.

It appears that we are being told that a collapse is imminent, yet, everytime it looks like China or another market is ready to do so, the bulls come in with a fresh round of support.

Here is my dilemma, as you are always teaching that we should not believe the gurus on CNBC, why should we now get out because of the current parade of 'experts' advising us to do so? Is it not possible that GS and whomever else CAN keep the market going until the 2008 election or beyond? Perhaps until Paulson et al are ready to retire?

A true trader should just delight in the current environment and attempt to trade with the powers instead of against them, as we are.

Just my thoughts as I see the other Asian markets shrug off the latest China market drop and the US exchanges set more records afterwards.

thx and best regards as always

chris

Bill, what do you make of this article? It appears to me that 60 days after this decision is written in stone, we could be in for the final straw that will allow HBB to slap these markets down very hard! Time to get your "shorts" ready?

tinyurl.com/2ndhf4

I'm a big fan of Dr. Faber, here is his latest article re the shape of things to come.Anyone interested in the real history of money and markets must read Dr. Fabers " Tomorrows Gold".This man has had the pulse of the markets even longer than our beloved Bill!

tinyurl.com/3bs39k

regards
chris

Big bad HB&B. I'm starting to feel like I'm at a carnival. The barker offers $100 to anyone who can stay in the ring with the champ for three minutes. I know that I can't actually beat the champ but, if I'm smart and nimble I may be able to keep from getting clocked. How bad do I want the $100? When I do last three minutes why do I keep going for another three and another three and another three?

When working on a comment for this, or any other blog, I find it best to construct it in a simple text editor (wordpad for instance) and then block and move into the actual comment box. Has saved a lot of re-typing.

2008: I would not discount the possibility that a severe market correction will be "disallowed" until 2009. Given a "choice," I would not want bad vibes for the Beijing Olympic Games or the US Presidential Election. 2009 would be good, with a nice recovery in time for the 2010 World's Fair in Shanghai.

Folowing up on Bills's BMO Gold comments; Here is a little more color on the take of Swiss National Bank gold sales announcement. The comment is from 15 JUN 07 and source has to remain anonymous.

Finally, much is being made of the announcement by the
Swiss National Bank yesterday that it intends to sell 250
tonnes of gold. The gold bears took that news in hand,
waved it about, shared it with the market, laughed aloud...
only to see the gold market yawn collectively. Unlike the
recent gold sales by the Central Bank of Spain, which sold
a very large sum of gold (approximately 108 tonnes) in a
relatively concentrated time frame, the Swiss National Bank
will sell its gold over the next 27 months. It will not liquidate
its gold in a panic, but will instead sell it quietly but steadily
over time, and will do so as a signatory to the Washington
Agreement.
Further, it does appear that the sales are being done only
as a reserve adjustment operation, not as the Bank of
Spain's sales were done to raise cash for liquidity
purposes. Spain's current account deficit is an egregiously
high 9.5% of its GDP; Switzerland runs a current account
surplus. Thus, the Swiss gold sales are being done simply
because gold, as a percentage of the Bank's total
reserves, has risen as gold prices have risen over the past
two years. The Bank's management intends simply to bring
gold's share of its total reserves back into some semblance
of balance, and nothing more. Those becoming bearishly
excited because of the SNB's announcement yesterday are
cautioned to sit down, take a very deep breath and look for
other reasons, if they must, to be short of gold. This is not
one

...remember when the Nasdaq displaced the DJIA in conversations in the 90s...there may soon come a time when the Shanghai Composite overtakes the S&P in importance...

I saw Ron Paul on the Daily Show recently. He is very impressive in the sense that he is genuine, smart and not bought by the powers that be. The problem is for me that he supports the oil industry wholeheartedly (he is from Texas), is anti-environmentalist, and is very conservative on a host of other issues. Its gotten so bad that even though he stands on the other side from me of almost every issue I would consider voting for him because he is not bought and paid for.

Someone has to take on the oligarchs. Sometimes I feel we are heading down the road of another bust like 1929, although not as bad. Only when the vast middle and underclass unite to demand their fair share will reform be possible.

I hope Spitzer will run in the next eight years.

Maybe this is old news but:

FT.com http://tinyurl.com/34h297
"Markets could cope with doubling of US deficit"

Yeah, hyperinflation here we come.

Booyah!

Steve

Moab

Ron Paul has submitted a bill in Congress to privatize
the Fed Reserve, the second time he has done this.
No coverage in media lol.

http://tinyurl.com/2h5ggq

Bill

Have you tried cayenne powder on your sinus?

Quote from Jefferson:

“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of our currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and the corporations that will grow up will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing of power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”

Bill,

We feel your pain watching how rogues and thieves are gaining control of our markets. Today's photo in the Globe & Mail of Lord Black of Crossdresser and his wife ( wearing around her neck what appeared to be a chastity belt she never had need to use ) awaiting the Chicago verdict in their $80 million dollar malfeasance reminds Canadians that these people have been honing their skills for years: assembling buddy boards that sleep while they rob the treasury, securities regulators ( drawn from the Bay Street Old Boy's Club ) who do nothing to protect investors. Hopefully, a message will be delivered in Chicago that this must stop! But, I wouldn't bet on it happening.

Bill and others seeking change in the political fortunes of our home nations,

A movement is gathering across the Internet to find a way for citizens to more directly influence the course of elections and the leaders we (should) choose to guide our fortunes toward more welcome goals: Unity08. The intent of this movement is to highlight those Democratic and Republican presidential candidates whose motives and agendas augur well for our commonweal.

From the Unity08 web site:

"Unity08 is a diverse group of Americans who believe that neither of today’s parties reflects the aspirations, concerns or will of the majority of Americans. Both parties have polarized and alienated voters. Both are unduly influenced by single-issue groups. Both are excessively dominated by money.

"There is a better way…

"Unity08 is committed to presenting a third presidential ticket and platform – one that addresses the issues and challenges of the 21st Century – to the American voters in 2008.

"We will not waste time pointing fingers. Instead, we will focus on how America can find common ground on critical issues – to give the overlooked moderate majority a voice and a choice in 2008. "

Please check out Unity08 at http://tinyurl.com/38terp

Dear Mr. Cara,

Greetings! Please know that,I am only wondering and pondering here,not being critical.

Re."The only protection is to buy the gold that central bankers are in the process of selling at so close to the actual cost of discovering and producing more of it." I do wonder what "we the people", are supposed to buy it with? Our limited margin accounts? We do not own family farmland anymore either. They own our homes, cars and toys. Don't they? We join workers unions but they own them too. Don't they? We send our children to be educated but they created the system so that they are undereducated. Didn't they? We elect presidents,and the rest of the crooks, but they own them. Don't they?

Which one of "We the people" can afford to run for office anywhere in the world ? Their game is so obvious to me I could scream out loud," WHY DON'T YOU JUST CROWN YOURSELVES KINGS AND BE DONE WITH IT.

Oh,they carefully orchestrated "Faith" in the last little while once again and "we the people" are eagerly awaiting the rapture and preparing our hearts for entrance into heaven. This world is not our home, our suffering is deserved because we disobeyed and sacrifice is the only way out. How dare you tell us that we ought to have second thoughts about an idea that didn't deliver on it's promise for over 2000 years.

Yet all is not lost until it is. I think we ought to put U-tube to good use. What do you think?
"We the people" are capable of the attention span and if we do a thing like "Obama Girl" they'll listen up and maybe hear the tune.

Oh how I wonder!!

Dear Genie,

That's a far-ranging post, my friend. And as you know, some of the regulars here have managed to accumulate a little something for themselves. Whenever I start feeling like you are, or wondering why, by dint of birth, I have to be me rather than Paris Hilton or Tiger Woods' kid, I realize that yes, if it HAD been me, and if I did own the whole world now, I would be supportive of a system that recognized my property "rights" even though I hadn't really ever done a damn thing. I guess you could say, I was meant to be born rich!

Now get over it and start taking their money the only way that's legal....TRADING! But if you choose to, be warned...When you go up against traders, you're going up against the best and the brightest. But hey. If this doesn't work out, you can always become a salesman!

Chris