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June 11, 2007
Cara’s Daily Commentary, Mon., June 11, 2007, 11:20 AM
Market Chat
Early this morning, I started on my usual routine, and then felt like I needed more sleep. I laid down and awoke a few minutes ago. So I missed the morning report. That got me to thinking that maybe I ought to do it at noon Monday’s anyway.
Global Equity Markets Review
There was further consolidation of prices to start the week in US equity markets.
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Here’s the closing data of the Asia-Pacific equity markets.. Trading was mostly positive today. There is no evidence of panic.
Here’s the chart of the Shanghai equity market.. Going up +2.1 pct, Shanghai further consolidated.
Here’s the chart of the Japanese equity market.. The Nikkei 225 was up on Monday by +0.31 pct.
Here’s the latest session data for the bourses of Europe. At 11:06am, Europe is broadly higher. No panic here.
Bonds & Yields Review
Here is the T-Bond chart.
Bond prices dropped again this morning. The T-Bond is at 106.5625.
Forex Review
Here is the $USD chart at the close of the prior session.
The $USD is modestly stronger.
Oil Review
Oil is modestly higher this morning, but trading looks nervous to me.
Here is the e-miNY July-07 Crude Oil chart.
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Spot gold at 652.3 (11:11am) is hanging in. There was a big gap down mid day Friday.
Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.
The Spot silver (AG) was 13.16, following a gap down mid day Friday.
Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.
Community Chat
Have a great day. I'm off to a luncheon meeting.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 11, 2007 11:20:21 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary
Discourse
Bill,
I like your list of 100 stocks. Many of them are on my own watch list. I know you didn't look at technicals to create the list, but many of them have great technicals too. Great site.
Chris
Posted by: Chris McGavisk
at
June 11, 2007 11:41 AM [link]
Hi Bill, and all. I know you occasionally comment on energy. I've been doing some thinking on the subject of energy independence and global warming. Did you know that the electrical equivilant to a gallon of gasoline can be produced for $0.84. Further electric motors are about 3.75 times as efficient as internal combustion engines. So about $0.23 worth of electricity should take us as far as a gallon of gas! I've done some analysis of what it would take to acheive energy independence (and help global warming) at www.energyindependencesolved.com . - Check it out and let me know what you think!
Best
Dave P
Dave P,
There seems to be a plausible offering of the solution you envisage. Check out the EESU (EEStor Ultra-capacitor), a solid-state electrical storage device in development down in Austin, TX that offers the prospect of fully recharging in 15 minutes sufficiently to drive 500 miles for $9: http://tinyurl.com/26scg2
Posted by: johojo
at
June 11, 2007 12:08 PM [link]
Bill - I think mid-morning commentary is a great idea. Maybe there's a way to make easily accessible (from the previous evening?) the links earlybirds will wish to monitor pre-opening, and then you weigh in after the day has settled in.
Maybe a previous evening (or end of WIR post) could also create a forum where earlybirds make their commentary before you weigh in.
Not to mention the fact that after Sunday's WIR, you may wish and certainly deserve a bit of a break !
BusinessWeek questioning government numbers...
"...new evidence suggests that shifting production overseas has inflicted worse damage on the U.S. economy than the numbers show. BusinessWeek has learned of a gaping flaw in the way statistics treat offshoring, with serious economic and political implications. Top government statisticians now acknowledge that the problem exists, and say it could prove to be significant."
Example: " furniture manufacturing has been transformed by offshoring in recent years. Imports have surged from $17.2 billion in 2000 to $30.3 billion in 2006, with virtually all of that increase coming from low-cost China. And the industry has lost 21% of its jobs during the same period."
"Yet Washington's official statistics show that productivity per hour in the furniture industry went up by 23% and output by 3% between 2000 and 2005. Those numbers baffle longtime industry consultant Arthur Raymond of Raleigh, N.C., who has watched factory after factory close. "And we haven't pumped any money into the remaining plants," says Raymond. "How anybody can say that domestic production has stayed level is beyond me."
Posted by: JIM
at
June 11, 2007 12:31 PM [link]
Bill
I thought you might be interested in work I did ,showing how consumption of non-durable goods-adjusted by income -has climbed to a new high level. This has left less income for discretionary spending, and potentially has a negative effect on the economy .
Posted by: Will Rahal
at
June 11, 2007 12:50 PM [link]
http://www.thebudgetgraph.com/poster/
Incredible tax chart - a must see.
I came across the EESTOR story while working on a university project and becoming intrigued by new capacitor technology in general. Thus far EESTOR is highly secretive/mysterious, however they did enter an agreement with a small Canadian electric car company Feel Good Cars Corp: ZNN.V which doesn't have the greatest web site or public relations.
Another company i had proposed for micro 100 was Maxwell Technologies, MXWL, which has a strong patent portfolio around ultracapacitors. They have already supplied some capacitors for electric buses in california, etc. Claims aren't as bold, but proven technology. Disclosure, I own some shares of MXWL...
Posted by: proudPapa
at
June 11, 2007 1:05 PM [link]
Will Rahal, your blog is cool. Let me ask you straight up, what are some consumer discretionary names/businesses that you think may suffer acutely in the upcoming period.
Also, does anyone out there know of any speculative stocks under 10 that are setting up nice technically?
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 11, 2007 1:06 PM [link]
Chris:
You might take a look at ESLR and OLED.
Posted by: RobBoss
at
June 11, 2007 1:28 PM [link]
BTW, anyone interested in the future global impact of declining energy resources particularly oil and NG - and therefore where we might be thinking of investing - ought to read "The Long Emergency" (2005)by James Howard Kunstler.
I am prompted to mention this because he devotes a chapter discussing (debunking)various alternative energy choices.
I found this book to be insightful but VERY disturbing.
Posted by: RobBoss
at
June 11, 2007 1:41 PM [link]
Thank you Chris,
I like yto deal with ETFs more that stocks.
XLY is the ETF for the Consumer Discretionary
sector. Some of its holdings include HD, LOW
TGT.
Notice that when the market skyrocketed, XLY
did not go to new highs
Posted by: Will Rahal
at
June 11, 2007 2:08 PM [link]
Bill-
The Sunday WIR was excellent. I've been snickering all day over the unfinished quip you made regarding the IRS agent and GITMO. Helps ease the pain of handing over all my money to them. There were a number of other funny bits in there as well. Thanks.
Posted by: Denny
at
June 11, 2007 2:12 PM [link]
johojo,
I am familiar with eestor I've got a link to them on my website www.energyindependencesolved.com . Note I also have a link to what I think is even more promising research being done at MIT on carbon-nanotube supercapacitors.
Best
Dave P
ALOHA !!
wavesmash ... I tried the tax chart but everytime I zoomed in to read the numbers the text got blurred and never corrected. Good idea if I could read it!
Death and taxes ... the only certainties in life!
Of course the more the US government spends it must print more and the more they print the more taxes they need to collect to cover the direct costs to run the US government and implement "welfare" programs. This "printing thing" has really ruined our futures and our kids futures!
Read the Bush Fiscal Year 2008 Budget and see the huge tax increases he and his administration is planning to collect to 2012. The two highest taxed entities in his entire budget are "retirees" and "individuals" ... The lowest taxed entity? Corporations ... Just imagine the profit margin on corporations if they had to pay the same percentage of taxes as "retirees" and "individuals"!! More corporate "welfare"! Once again MONEY TALKS!
How much longer can the US Consumer endure the financial wrath of its own government?
GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...
Posted by: kaimu
at
June 11, 2007 3:02 PM [link]
Bill & Company
Might want to check out a codec company called On2.
I suggested this company ONT for the MicroCap 100.
Do your own Due Diligence
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS DAILY
June 07, 2007 Thursday
HD Streaming At 2 Mbps Has Compromises in ABC.com Test, Codec Firm Says
A lack of HD content online is the limiting factor in the prospects for streaming HD video, On2 Technologies CEO Bill Joll told us. His company makes the VP7 codec that ABC is using to stream 720p HD video on its website at 2 Mbps.
Advanced codecs like VP7 are reducing the bandwidth requirements for HD, Joll said. But streaming HD probably won't take off until an abundance of HD programming becomes available, he said. "The broadcasters certainly are interested in providing a higher quality experience to their consumers. But it's just at the beginning stages," he said: "The turning point is probably going to be 2009, because the digitization of TV will have happened and there will be a lot more HD content available."
At just 2 Mbps, ABC will be offering HD at a much lower bitrate than other HD providers. Even the skinniest broadcast HDTV service typically requires more than 3 times as much bandwidth. Though compressing high-resolution signals to low bitrates makes it more economical to provide streams and easier for consumers to view them, there's a quality tradeoff, On2 CTO Eric Ameres said. "It would certainly be sharper than any standard-definition video you've seen," he said: "But typically in sections where there's fast motion you may see more softening in sections than you would in an offline, higher bitrate application." The compression would become even more apparent in sports and other high-motion video, he said.
Viewers who watch the 2 Mbps HD streams on an HDTV set will probably be pleased, Ameres said. Moreover, PC monitors and HDTV sets are increasingly using similar technology. That means consumers won't notice as much difference when they move video between devices, he said: "The difference between your LCD television and your LCD monitor is much, much lower now than the difference between your traditional TV set and older the monitor on your desk top. The viewer is going to see a lot less of a difference."
New CE devices that allow easy recording and uploading of HD video will also spur higher-bandwidth streaming online, Ameres said. As amateur and semiprofessional producers adopt HD, they will want to see their work in HD on video sharing sites like YouTube and MySpace, he said: "They're going to start pushing that [HD] stuff up to Google and MySpace, and those companies are going to have to start delivering it."
On2's codec can also be used to encode live HD programming, Ameres said. That requires more bandwidth on the service provider's side because real-time encoding can lead to bumps in bitrates, he said. Viewers shouldn't notice any difference between live and recorded streams, he said: "The nice thing about live streaming is the only difference is what happens on the encoding side." Having extra processing power helps, he said: "If we're encoding on the service side, you have the ability to throw a reasonable amount of hardware at the problem." -- Josh Wein
Posted by: Stokbot
at
June 11, 2007 3:20 PM [link]
Kaimu,
Don't you love it when a non-citizen made-up tax/liability avoidance entity is granted more rights and protection under the Constitution by the Humongous Friends Supreme Court than the citizenry the Constitution was written to actually protect?
Government of, by and for the corporation.
And of course the OFFICERS of said corporation are taxed at THEIR individual tax rate, which for wealthy pencil pushing option backdating theives has been lowered to all time lows by the Executive and legislative branches of HB&B.
So all FOUR branches of government are working against the citizenry. FOUR you say?
Yep. The Executive, Legislative, Judiciousless, and the Corporate lobby branches.
Posted by: Craig
at
June 11, 2007 3:24 PM [link]
Stokbot,
Your name suits you.
Posted by: Skrymir
at
June 11, 2007 4:51 PM [link]
Hi Kaimu,
Re: slow tax chart.
Could be the wild hogs interfering with your internet access...
I did find it really slow but once it got loaded it seemed to work. It was on www.digg.com so it's probably experiencing some traffic today.
Somebody give me an idea for why I'm still holding MLY.TO?
Someone school me about something please.
This morning CUP was trading premarket ABOVE the takeout price, then it fell during the session. But since the terms of the deal are known, what was the impetus on people's part to do 7 million shares in a day? Was this "buying" or "selling", so to speak. Are buyers hoping that the takeout gets taken out by a better offer?
Thanks for the info
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 11, 2007 5:20 PM [link]
Oh no, former vice chairman of GS, Suzanne Nora Johnson to join the board of Intuit. Intuit is very dear to my heart.
So I guess this means that with this nee GS angle the stock will do very well!
I have not seen much posted here about INTU, might it be eligible for one of your lists Bill? Seems like the company is run well, maybe the CEO compensation is a bit out of whack though.
Posted by: agaunv
at
June 11, 2007 5:21 PM [link]
Bill, also you mentioned Patrick Esnouf and Sag.to last week, I am eagerly awaiting your comments.
Also quite strange that when I search on Patricks name in the search box on the home page it does not get a hit.
Thanks
Posted by: agaunv
at
June 11, 2007 5:30 PM [link]
Kaimu,
Food for thought.
Without inflating why would you buy "Realestate or anything IE: Static Prices = NO PROFIT!
Posted by: archwalt
at
June 11, 2007 6:04 PM [link]
http://media.libsyn.com/media/wallstreetwindow/wsw061007m.mp3
Hello everyone,
Mike Swanson of WSW is out of gold as of lastweek. If you listen to podcast please comment so I can get some other perspectives. I think Mike knows his stuff so I am doing a Rethink for tomorrow. Sure can use some help with KGC chart. Is it breaking down or not?
Bill, Thank you for sharing so much and with such graciousness. Thank you for doing so much on the weekend.
I just copied and paste the URL, don't know how to do tiny, maybe someone can clarify??
Thanks much
Posted by: moneygenie
at
June 11, 2007 6:15 PM [link]
This morning CUP was trading premarket ABOVE the takeout price, then it fell during the session. But since the terms of the deal are known, what was the impetus on people's part to do 7 million shares in a day? Was this "buying" or "selling", so to speak. Are buyers hoping that the takeout gets taken out by a better offer?
Or maybe shareholders might think the offer is too low and fight the takeout?
It wouldn't be the first time this sort of thing happened. ;)
Posted by: number2son
at
June 11, 2007 7:26 PM [link]
I'm not an expert nor do I hold KGC but I do own several miners.
I went to BillCara2.com and looked since I am curious about the miners.
Support for kgc is around $12.50 since January.
Gold support is around $630.
KGC hasn't broken support, but it is down a bit on low volume.
After that depends on your pain tolerance.
I'm down a bit but I'm holding PM's and gold.
Posted by: Craig
at
June 11, 2007 7:32 PM [link]
BTW, Moneygenie,
Read Bill's commentary from yesterday's WIR.
It will answer your questions.
Posted by: Craig
at
June 11, 2007 7:35 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
archwalt ... The price of real estate is not going up the value of the US Dollar is going down! I for one would love to work 50 years and be able to retire comforably on my savings. Nobody can do that now without gambling in the various bubbles now proliferating the "American Dream"! Why are we gambling? Because inflation has wiped out any notion of "long term security" ...
It always amazes me how real estate has changed from buying a house to live in to buying a house to "flip"! There's even a "Flip This House" TV show! Besides most of the so called "profits" were all based on hype, which in a few years will become more evident. The "basis" for the rise in cost of the average home is rooted in "monetary inflation" however. Just like the costs of medicine, food and gas ...
GOVERNMENT IS AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...
wavesmash ... To get your answer to the MLY.TO question you'd have to call Eric Sprott. I for one do not own MLY.TO but I do own a couple "moly" juniors. Many upgrades to the uses of moly are creating lots more demand.
Link: http://www.stockinterview.com:80/News/05092007/Molybdenum-Nano-Reser.html
Posted by: kaimu
at
June 11, 2007 7:43 PM [link]
Dear Bill and Friends from the Great White North and Elsewhere,
I never did get long KRY last week as I suggested I might, and today I was waiting for signs of life but the rally failed and the $4 level was challenged. Absent a reversal, I think this thing's going to $3.75 or possibly $3.50.
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 11, 2007 8:47 PM [link]
shark_attack: So in other words KRY should really pop tomorrow! ;-)
Posted by: agaunv
at
June 11, 2007 8:51 PM [link]
Good Article on Growing Demand for Moly
Posted by: Stokbot
at
June 11, 2007 9:10 PM [link]
Speaking of moly. I just bought some Inca Pacific (IPR) at $1.75 following Sprott's purchase of 20 million shares at $2.00. Inca Pacific is a resource exploration company with a focus on copper and molybdenum projects in Peru. Sprott now owns 53% of the company and holds it in the moly fund.
Posted by: Fred
at
June 11, 2007 9:22 PM [link]
Why the Big Money in Gold Shares
Still Lies Ahead
By David Galland
in emailed letter by John F. Mauldin
excerpt:
Importantly, and understandably, funding for the junior Canadian exploration companies that are now leading the charge into the remote corners of the world to search for new deposits was virtually non-existent.
Posted by: jasper
at
June 11, 2007 9:55 PM [link]
Cmon Aganuv, who do you think I am, Jim Cramer? I'm not a contrary indicator.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
June 11, 2007 10:51 PM [link]
Speaking of Moly:
China to introduce export quotas for indium, molybdenum
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2007-06-12 01:08
China will apply export quota and license management to two resource items - indium and molybdenum beginning from June 18, said the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs in a joint notice on Monday.
To export indium, molybdenum and products manufactured with both items, companies need to go to local commerce departments to get the license and export quota, and they would have to present the license at the customs, according to the bulletin.
Both indium and molybdenum are unrenewable rare metals which are widely used in defense industry, aviation and space sectors, information industry and the manufacturing sector.
The country will also introduce export licenses for standard sand from June 15, according to the two departments.
---------------
Sand ?
Posted by: Stokbot
at
June 11, 2007 11:49 PM [link]
moneygenie,
If you go to http://tinyurl.com/ there is a complete explanation of how to create a tinyurl from even the longest and most awkward url. There's even a widget you can drag onto your browser toolbar that streamlines the process.
Posted by: johojo
at
June 12, 2007 12:21 AM [link]
Kiwi dollar tumbles on central bank intervention
I guess Japan had there fingers crossed when they told NZ they were going to raise rates. LOL!
So the answer is to drop the NZ dollar with a "small war chest" that can't sustain against the demand.
Hmmmm. Sounds like something else that gets talked about a lot around here!!
Posted by: cb
at
June 12, 2007 1:29 AM [link]
THANK YOU johojo ,
I'M TRYING IT OUT. HOPE YOU'LL CHECK OUT THIS SITE.I DO BELIEVE IN ENERGY HEALING AND THAT IT DOES WORK.
THANKS Craig !!!!!!!
Posted by: moneygenie
at
June 12, 2007 2:17 AM [link]
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LOL! Sleep! We're running on the wisdom of the WIR and we know you need the winks.
The sleep seems to keep the Crystal Ball clear and working properly.
Enjoy!
Posted by: Craig
at
June 11, 2007 11:26 AM [link]