moin moin from germany,

quote of the day comes via Hussman

a guy tells his broker to buy a stock at $5. “Buy as much as you can.”

The next day the broker calls back and says the stock is at 6. The guy says “keep buying.”

The next day the broker says “the stock is at 7, do you want to sell?” The guy says “keep buying.”

Finally, the guy calls his broker and says, “Sell everything at 9.” The broker says “to who?”

this is what happend in china... :-)

Thanks Bill for your usual great analysis!
A very interesting article about the evolution of bond yields and what is means for the economic cycle.
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

As to the Yuan/USD: I suppose that if Yuan goes up, then the Chinese stock markets will fall even more. And what happens next? Wouldn't it make the commodities much weaker, and maybe gold, too? Or maybe now in China they are more free to invest in gold directly, to protect their capital from the real high inflation?

Good Morning to all,
WMT upgraded to outperform by Wachovia this AM.

Wow! I see the witch scrolled "Beware Dorothy" in red over Shanghai last night.

No worries, We've lost the Fed's flying monkeys (for now), we have the witch's broomstick, my straw fire is out and Toto has been fed and watered. Put on your ruby slippers and let's make some time on Oz today!

When we get to Oz, do NOT take the balloon, that's Professor Paulson's ride and Ben is navigator. You know how that ends, they can't control that thing....

No, we will click our heels three times and say, there's nothing like selling gold, there's nothing like selling gold...

Accredited Home Lenders to Be Sold to Private Equity Company for $400 Million.

http://tinyurl.com/33xm6w

With the 10 year approaching 5%, does anyone have a good buy list of preferred bonds the Cara community could select from?

shanghai down is not unexpected, but i wouldn't want to speculate on what happens from here. i think it increases the chances of a spike in gold and am playing it that way, but that market always does its best to throw you off.

i think gold looks good here for a trade..scaling into a short-term position (on top of a long-term)...

BMD's coming to you 2nd. 2.79 is the recent low.

will complete a "full" position in BMD if it hits 2.50...or if it hits 4

So the only problem with last weeks little gold rally is what we see today, major US indices down .1-.3% and the HUI and XAU down 3-9 times that.

This relationship has not been broken yet, that of the miners to major equities. I fear that in the coming correction this will hold true or more thus I have moved 1/3 of my metal holdings to cash as of early last week. That was hard to swallow with the action later in the week however the Macro picture aint pretty.

Maybe the big Gold/Silver rally does not happen until 1. equities are taken out, then 2. everybody runs to bonds, bonds skyrocket for a bit and then whipsaw back down...
Then in the ensuing equity rally after that the miners rise at a mutiple of the indices.

Ok, that's how I am going to play it. already have a core bond postion that will be useful by year end...In addition to a separate cash position that will only depreciate via inflation.

Steve

oih feels like it wants to break out to a new high this week...

steve-the miners have already been taken down, and there's nothing but negative sentiment...i think there will be rotation into cash/bonds/AND metals/commodities, and that it started last week...but that's the beauty of the market...we all hone our instincts, and if we play against the crowd correctly, we get to smile for a little while...i'm prepared to be wrong, of course...

Does anyone here follow the commitment of traders (COT)?

I've been following this less than a month, and it signals caution in the pm's, while still bullish on the S&P.

n2son, can you tell me where to go for COT information?

2nd_ave:

Try this for COT:
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm

n2son - here's a trading strategy based on it

http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/

mentioned in don vialoux's site a week or so ago.

don't know if it's any good, but worth a look. haven't figured it all out yet.

number2son and 2nd_ave,

Adam Hamilton has posted an interesting read regarding CoTs and how they often are misused:

http://tinyurl.com/yvahbs

UBS' losses on its recently shuttered internal "dillon read" hedge fund look to be large, per this report in the same league as their losses on LCTM:

http://www.traderdaily.com/news/item/7874.html

No significant impact on their stock price so far.

as promised here are my top 'o noggin trade journal entries today:

GOOG - attempting to breakout, triple top @ 513 is extremely formidable, watch intraday to hold above 505.84. wait for 513 on power box, right here is no man's land, but if it can clear and close above 513 the retail buyer will begin foaming.

GROW - my all time greatest money maker. sorry but i am very, very emotionally attached to this one. pivot point is 23.60 with a constriction overhead @ 25.14. 1 week target of 27.50. as sick as that may sound, this guy runs and runs hard in each direction without abandon, all mojo factors turned very positive friday and i am anticipating one more stab to 23.60 before takeoff to 27 1/2 this week.

LVLT - vol. squeeze is forming, watch list this, buy on volume gap above 5.98

EMC - buy on pullback between 16.90 - .93

GES - buy in 1/5 blocks on hour before earnings tomorrow night; almost a gimme w/competitors blowing doors off

SOLF - another bludgeoned fav. 'o mine is constricting properly, buy below 9.25 and above 9.65

GSF / HAL - continue to trade every single day on any 1.0 vol band retracement; easiest money out there today ( GSF and AUY are DAILY GIMME's)

RHT - buy between 24 and 24.25 for creeping uptick in 27th earnings (LNUX, NOVL were good)

CELG - pound for trade and LT hold @ 61 today, buy below 61.20 for low risk entry

IGT & AVP - both have very, very positive option flow for next 2 months, AVP is actionable as we speak around 38.8 ( large call blocks anticipating 42.50 in JULY), IGT is buyable on any pullback to 41

AND FINALLY,

I am about as big of a goldbug as any BUT !! DO NOT jump in front of a truck by loading up on GLD / GDX before confirmation is given. I believe Uncle Ben and Lacker will be good for PM's tomorrow but be careful, GDX is NOT confirming itself above 40.14 and that is NOT a good thing. The easiest PM trade here is AUY ( sorry Bill, made way too much and drank way too much kool-aid on this one to not love it ), AUY has upside rez at exactly 14.28, 14.22 is pivot 1, 13.88 is pivot wave 1, above that 14.42 will not be breached without two failed attempts. This is the easiest 1% everyday for me, and I hope that this helps folks.

Summation of all $1K+ trading services today:
5% is creeping and spooking some; TLT's look like michael jackson w/o makeup; low M&A flow today is food for thought . . . . BILL please give us your opinion on the apparent repricing of H shares in HONG KONG this past week; seems like A shares are being pricked a bit to reign in valuation and close gap a bit w/ H shares; seems pretty easy for a trade again this week but all that seems such falters fast. Would love your opinion Bill.

ps. FTEK continues to climb for me, pleasantly surprised, look for entry on next low volume 3% gap down for last hurrah this month.

GOOD LUCK ALL

Kinross,

Was talked about on Friday and I noted TD Waterhouse was showing it to be technically bearish. They've now got it on their list of stocks making technically bullish moves following Friday's jump. They describe it now as forming a bullish Continuation Wedge.

Can't honestly say it gives me comfort to see something go from technically bearish to technically bullish in one trading day. Something's wrong with that kind of analysis.

No position.

JogyP, rob d and johojo-thanks

waiting to see if OIH can close above the 52wk high...

if a spike in gold felt "certain" right now I'd be worried...the "edge" in the way it's playing out (or not) is reassuring...but that's just my gut talking...

long OIH/GDX

GOOG is failing here; gonna take a few more days of churning around 510 to clear out all those limit sell orders.

NYX is attempting to break out here but will SURELY see one more gap to 84 1/2 before Wed. night.

MAJOR non-confirmation on GDX et al. be careful !!

MOJO Summary: AXL, VNDA, NYX, STLD crossover buys; SBUX is dicey, I personally just don't trust it here.

check out VNDA calls two months out, picking up steam last week; DO NOT buy today, if pullback occurs to 20.3 on relatively light volume, I would pick up a bit

ALGN is constricting nicely; GLUU is oversold today, just be cautious bc it is quite illiquid, I prefer gasp, buy / hold here

BUYER BEWARE OF 2:50 - 3:10 today -------

very very light cube volume is quite suspicious, new high lows are suspciously copious today, normally a good thing, it stinks to high heaven today bc half are oih / uso / E&P; 13,589 is DOW's falter level today; 1524.1 is S&P falter zone, wouldn't worry too much about that one though, only short term traders need note today; this week should prove quite choppy and most likely will end as a weekly DOJI;

NYX is breaking out here, it's getting very stretchy and I am still waiting for a $1.50+ pullback tomorrow; remember that the street already knows their numbers and we have no clue so as much as I would love (ie. just really want to) load the boat w/ July calls here, I'm gonna wait for R morning to jump on board rather than risk another stab to 78 / 80; action is telling me otherwise though

brandonalpha's non-confirmation on GDX noted..

RIG at new high..

Who was it that wrote: "I like GRS better than Yamana"? Bill.....

Whacked at first, scary even, but it sure looks nice now. Nice call if you had a bit O' ice in the veins. I have coffee, but it seemed to work.

Thanks Bill.

NYX attempting to break out ( I think it fails here ) 87.65 is the 81EMA, if it falters here and can muster a 2nd try that conquers 87.87 then a move over 88.1 is buyable to 91 /92.

By the way - this is the single most adaptive / useful bit of info you will read this week:

stop using the 8 - 20 - 50 - 200 ema's if you are day /week trading, instead use the 34 and 81 ema's on 5 - 15 min bars; for sake of brevity i'll just say that the 34 and 81 bars are what "pros" are using for the last 2+ months. try it out on your charting programs for fun and you'll immediately see how the 34 n 81's are acting as damn near obvious support intraday for uptrending mo-mo names.

you are welcome.

ps. nyx failed to reach my 'true' breakout pivot; see if 3rd wave of day will reach

goog is attempting 505.84 again, watch that level @ close

snhy continues to be voraciously acquired; light volume down day is a gimme right now

mblx is holding 22.16 for 2nd time, be careful here,

grow is very actionable here

GES is annoying the hell out of me; I HATE THESE SLOW CRAWLS where i can not tell if institutional money is inching out the side door or accumulating the hell of it at snail pace to avoid obvious tells; this type of pre-earnings action screams that "THEY" know something we don't; question is, is it the obvious 'the numbers are being blown off' or 'expectations are now way too high and we're gonna bamboozle you,; ugh!!!

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070604:MTFH34092_2007-06-04_17-40-27_N04475402&type=comktNews&rpc=44

BS timed article on NYX tells me that #'s will be good; I would love to hear Bill take on that behavioral finance case study but suffice to say that there are usually floated reuters bs articles b4 major tide changes; anyone wanna back me up who own's APPL ( my client's aggregate #1 holding ), or for this board how about KRY ( gotta love bane).

damn near perfect DOJI day coming here @ minor selloff into close; goog fails, nyx fails, aapl fails, auy / gld / gdx fails, only lame short squeeze holders and T. Boone are up today and that my friends ( with 54M cubes traded @ 3:20 ) is a huge yellow flasher here!!!

I'm pairing back into close, ges nyx goog stld mblx grow auy celg gsf hal dwsn btj xto pbr, all that i'm not dumping out of here from intraday trades.

someone short urre already, goodness, i'm a huge uranium bull but cmon now, talk about a fake pop today ugh

forget that doji call, short covering into close on weak day is horrid horrid setup for tomorrow, nevertheless we have one more magnet @ 1550 to 1557 to clear .

1539 measures 270 degrees from the 768.65 10/10/02 bear low and 1536 is the 3.146 (pi) fib extension of wave 1 (768.65 - 954), so 1539 should prove sticky until 1553 can be touched sometime in the next 9 trading days;

IF TLT does not regain and negate its right shoulder @ 86.6 we should be in for a nice swoon soon !!!

please lighten up into this idiotic close ahead of rate hike talk tomorrow, please!!!

auy, kry, nyx, solf, ges, goog, emc, algn, shld, grow, gsf, hal, snhy, vnda, stld, gluu . .. TOMORROW , wait for it, sell into this close

Bill...
Another great idea--income cara100. Appreciate how you're looking ahead, as you also mentioned that your eyes are on bonds which I hope to hear more about. As I am relatively new here, I'm heartened that you are keeping in mind the average joe, like me, retired and working to make his savings safe and worthy of growth. (Did we loose the incredible charts? A sign of time to subscribe?)

FYI: Either AmeriTrade has terrible security or it is selling customer emails to penny stock spammers:

http://yro.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/05/30/1444236

Another profit center for AmeriTrade?

paring back on OIH into the close...

pretty good finish by GDX regardless..

moab--my guess re: "terrible security or it is selling customer emails"--all of the above.

rob d--one thing that stuck out when I gave a quick look at cotstimer was an existing signal call since April 10, 2007, to sell the $CAD. The loonie has only been up @ 8.5% since then including another move up today. Like you, don't know how worthwhile the site is, but thanks for the info.

Actually picked up some Canadian energy trust HTE this a.m. @ 30 . . . received upgrades from BMO & Scotia . . . rare to trade this.

SFD continued to move up from dip last week prior to earnings on Thurs, which have been preannounced as disappointing/negative. Long.

Does anyone know why Energy Metals (acquired today by SXR Uranium One) is trading under its offer price?? The stock is trading at $18.44 and the share swap is valued at C$19.12.

Because the share swap value is based on a multiple fo SXR's stock. Since SXR dropped 3.2%, so does the target companies stock. I think :)

proudPapa
Thanks for your answer!

GE, a cara 100.

Anyone watching this......97%...above average volume.

I have not looked for news, but in our local paper GE made a statement in an energy article that they continue to make a "big bet" on nuclear. This is the story GE promotes...just not sure if this story will take traction. Could this do nothing stock have some surprise mo?

that is, 0.97% increase in price of ge Today.

Bill,

Are you looking at any companies for the 30202010 industry group of the CARA100, more specifically agriculture producers, companies that will benefit from an increase in agricultural prices?

Also, does anyone know of any specific ETF for that group (not generic commodities)? Meat producers, cattle, grains, high proteins in general.

Thx.

Jasper --

GE's improving prospects was the subject of Barron's cover story, published over the weekend. That may explain the bounce.

Cost of living: cops in SF will now top out at 114K/yr (before overtime), sargeants 132K + overtime, captains 191K, and the Chief 307K. Retirement benefits: 109K/yr pension + cost of living increases, sargeants 126K/yr + COL, captains 182K/yr + COL, and the Chief 293K/yr + COL. Plus health care for life and 1/2 off for one dependent:
http://tinyurl.com/38grnl

Jock,
What are you doing reading MSM/ like Barron's?...of course, big grin....
I've been long GE for years....was Barron's article convincing....or was it a put up job by the cnbc crew?

seamus - i thought that was weird too, especially since there is also a long standing buy signal on the TSX. johojo's link near the top of the comments about misuse/misinterpretation of COT data might apply.

2ndave - about the same over in bergen county, nj. go to neighboroo.com and check the crime rate. not that i don't support police, but it's gone mad. i know old high school friends, with no college, given a badge and gun at 19, making 175k with "overtime", aka getting paid to sit behind a Verizon FiOS truck. 25 years in, 70% of top three years as pension with full medical. and people have the nerve to bitch about property taxes being so high - nepotism and small time politics, dummies! then there are NYC cops making 65k tops. no justice there.

From Birch Mountain Annual Meeting 5/31:

Key Market Drivers

(1) Continued growth in oil sands projects. 30 today compared to only 2 not that long ago. Players include the major oils (Encana, Imperial, Suncor, Husky, Shell) as well as foreign nationals (Korea, Norway).

(2) Projects tend to be very large in scale ("Go big or go home" describes most projects) which plays in BMD's favor. BMD's quarry is 275 acres, and now charecterizes its production as "not capacity limited" (eg, purchased a shoveler in 2006 able to load 100-ton trucks in 10-ton increments).

(3) Increasing awareness of product quality. Allows BMD to price accordingly. One example can be seen in the southbound stretch of one highway, repaired using Birch Mountain's crushed limestone, compared to the heavily rutted northbound stretch which was paved with regional gravel--the difference is easily seen in photos, even more pronounced when driving over the road in a pick-up.

(4) Limited competition in the area. Nearest competitor is 900 km away.

(5) Timing of operations shifting to use of alternative fuels. Positive implications for use of limestone in oil sands scrubbers.

(6) From zero to 2.4m in revenue over the past 12 months. Margin growth also expected.

...btw, Jarding's mock poll of the audience on where oil prices are going/staying would reasonably lead one to conclude that his outlook for the company is based on prices staying in the 60-70 range...

too many negative commentaries on gold (eg, http://tinyurl.com/2lg23m)..i think it goes over 700 by friday...

Shanghai down 5% (185 points) as of right now.
A few more red arrows in other Asian markets, but nothing major.

We'll see what color the sky is in the a.m.

Shanghai up 3.32% now.

Hi Bill and all,
I am currently attempting to educate myself about Technical Analysis,using ideas and links suggested on this site.I am making progress and have found a very good site for UK readers and maybe folks from elsewhere that offers free TA tools that I have found very useful.The site is iii.co.uk(free registration),I hope this is of use to someone getting started on TA as I am.
John

Aren't the odds better that Uncle Ben shoots gold down this mornin than the converse?

Chris