reposting:
an extract from Bill’s post last night:
“Have you been watching Micron (MU) since, in mid-April, it hit the Cara Accumulation Zone and then the Buy Alert? …
Funny how the Big Swinging Dicks at GS couldn't see the price increases in chips coming? Do you think?”
Yes, I have been watching - with skin in the game – notably, Oct 11 calls, which have now doubled.
Given the rising prices of agricultural commodities, I knew chip prices were going up. Why, it’s gotten so bad, I’ve had to alter my consumption: I’ve switched to microwave popcorn.
I think I’d like to thank you, Bill.
Here’s what I picked up last night:
-Reuters reported that MU had the 4th largest month over month increase in overall short positions – a 38% increase from 36.5 million to 50.4 million
-from the Yahoo site, the open interest in July calls for MU with strike prices between $11-$15, inclusive is 268,151 --26.8 million shares!
MU is reporting Q3 FY07 next week – June 28, as I recall- the day Bill meets fans at the King Eddy.
So…what I think is that some people are shorting shares in anticipation of really bad q’ly earnings and some of those shorts are hedging their bets with July calls.
But, prognosticators are already anticipating really really bad q’ly results from DRAM manufacturers – the worst of the decade, according to one analyst, quoted in an article I read.
So, is it possible that the MU price won’t drop with the Q’ly earnings release, as shorts expect; and we could have ever an increasing price rise, juiced by a short squeeze?
Your view, Bill? Anybody?
I disclose my greedy quandary: to bail or not bail before June 28.
Regards all
joey

Moin from Germany,

i can smell fear......

Bear Stearns Plans $3.2 Billion Bail Out / Largest since LTCM

Bear Stearns Plans $3.2 Billion Fund Rescue to Halt Fire Sale

Bear Stearns Cos. plans to take on $3.2 billion of loans to stop creditors from seizing assets of one of its money-losing hedge funds in the biggest fund bailout since 1998, people with knowledge of the proposal said

Largest Since LTCM
``The problem is not what we see happening, but what we don't see,'' said Joseph Mason, associate professor of finance at Drexel University in Philadelphia and co-author of an 84-page study this year on the CDO market. ``We don't know the price of these assets. We don't know which banks are exposed to this sector. These conditions are the classic conditions for financial crises across history.''

The bailout of the fund would be the largest since Long- Term Capital Management LP, which received $3.625 billion from 14 lenders in 1998. After Long-Term Capital, run by John Meriwether, lost $4.6 billion, lenders including Merrill and Bear Stearns agreed to take a stake in the Greenwich, Connecticut-based fund.

The Bear Stearns funds had borrowed $9 billion and made bets of more than $11 billion, one person said. Aside from Merrill, Lehman and JPMorgan, other creditors included Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Cantor Fitzgerald LP, all in New York. Bank of America Corp., based in Charlotte, North Carolina, Barclays Plc in London and Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG were the other lenders.

Here are a couple of interesting (and instructive to me) articles from The Asian Times:

Careful what you wish for, China may grant it
http://tinyurl.com/2w26ez

How revaluing the yuan would help China
http://tinyurl.com/2tdlqf

Be careful out there...

Bill, I would like to know what you think of Energy Fuels, a uranium play. I bought into the dog a few months ago on the prospect of a milling agreement with DML that has not yet materialized and the share price seems to have reflected that lately. Still, the management appears solid and the plan sound. Do you know this company, if so, what is your feeling about it. Anyone else is welcome to give me their views. Thank you all. I appreciate this bullboard.

love the new colour scheme

Morning,

It's been a tough week. Crystallex just announced some drilling results; I read the report and can't figure out if it's positive or not. Any ideas?

Chris

chris, i have no clue what the assay results mean, but phrases like "continuity of mineralization" and "extension of the principal deposit at Las Cristinas" are obviously positive developments...and if they weren't, i don't think they would be mentioning them..

Re:Kry This appears to indicated that there is gold between the areas that had been drilled before...

Richard Spencer, Crystallex's VP Exploration commented, "Apart from demonstrating down-dip continuity of mineralization at Conductora, the 06-07 drill program has clarified two other important aspects of the Las Cristinas deposit. Firstly, it has demonstrated continuity of mineralization through the gap between the planned pits at Conductora and Mesones-Sofia and secondly, it has shown that the Morrocoy zone is a fault-displaced extension of the Conductora mineralization. This suggests that the Morrocoy zone is an extension of the principal deposit at Las Cristinas."

..try walking away from KRY for a little while..i know it's hard when you have a large position, but i really see nothing wrong with the way things are going..i have a sizable position myself, and i'm not worried at all..the downside IMO is limited to a few possible shake-out rattles, but the upside is what led bill to make his stock-of-the-year call last january...

tasr taking off again

'Morning everyone,

What do people see as possible triggers towards the contraction of the Japanese credit balloon, as Bill puts it? I think I can wrap my head around how rising rates in Japan will adversely affect global markets, but what are the probable factors that will cause Japan to raise rates? Is it as simple as reacting to a strong domestic economy, or does there come a point where the Japanese have to step in to actually defend the Yen?

I recall others posting recently about taking, or thinking of taking positions in FXY. Certainly if you look at FXY, or $XJY on the daily/weekly/monthly charts, it's in the Cara AZ. Do readers think there's a near to short-term stimulus for a reversal in the Yen here, and what might that stimulus be?

GFI is in the news today, too. The strike in VZ is over. That's good. But the strike has impacted production, which will be down this quarter significantly. That's bad, but I also think this has already been discounted in the share price.

We'll see if the stock recovers from here. My money says it will.

bx at 43...

anyone going long or short bx?

Citigroup upgrades Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA) from Hold to Buy. Price target increased from $22 to $29.

Citigroup analyst says, "Under our new commodity price forecasts, TRA has the lowest valuation among our companies, at 10.8x P/E and 4.7x EV/EBITDA on our 2008 estimate, generating a strong free cash flow yield of 10.7% on 2008E. Nitrogen fundamentals remain sound and the typical seasonal softness in pricing appears quite mild relative to the high prices observed thus far this year. Given elevated corn prices and expectations for US corn acreage to rise again in 2008, nitrogen demand will likely show another year of increase while supply response will be limited, since existing facilities are already running at capacity and the next domestic capacity addition is not expected until 2010."

Long TRA

doug11,

One possible cause is the Japanese CPI going up. This can be triggered by the significant food inflation that is happenning globally (BTW, US PPI on farm product went up 29% in May y/y, http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?wp). This inflation will show up in the Japanese CPI since they use nominal CPI, not the fake CPI used in the US. Once their inflation goes up rates will have to go up. Just an opinion. BTW, Seamus post above is all related to this.

#2: GFI

VZ does not solve the South African mine worker wage dispute talks that are on going and looks as if they will not be resolved without escalating the cost of AU production per oz.

Does anyone use Wealth Lab Pro at Fidelity?
I'd like to discuss how to use this to screen using rsi criteria. WLP can further send alerts and actually take/sell positions based on technical criteria,so I am told.

C.Note ... thanks for the clarification on the SA situation. And yep, I agree that should continue to weigh on stock price near term.

MSFT on sale today.

adding to sds/qid here..

Bill
Does this read right?
In the case of WHY, I have to ask myself WHY that one won’t be a $100 stock in a couple years. I think it will, and Sheldon Inwentash at Pinetree agrees. He took the full placement recently.

bmd looks good here for anyone wanting to open..

Re: Bear and the CDO swamp

Despite multiple press reports that CDO investors/i-bankers are reluctant to mark-to-market their holdings (as required by FASB) and are going at great length to justify their mark-to-model because (1) each CDO is different in structure (hence "my holdings are fine"), or (2) it would create too big a margin requirement, I am baffled that the SEC hasn't issued a statement refreshing their memories as to the accounting requirements every public company must follow.

I surely wouldn't want to be an i-bank auditor asked to sign off on a balance sheet where direct (or indirect) investments are not marked down despite all surrounding evidences pointing to an obvious deterioration. Maybe another firm will join Arthur Andersen in oblivion. How confidently will the banks' CEO CFO file their statement of true and accurate reporting?

At the end of the day, more liquidity may salvage the system from an avalanche of margin calls and help control the unwinding, but some of the publicly traded players will suffer an humiliating admission of large M2M adjustments that will clout their overall financial picture for a long time.

JML

I was walking in front of JP Morgan Chase offices on Park Avenue today and I overhead a snippet of conversation beween two HBB types: "There is going to be blowback..."

Good morning all,
Interesting issues with subprime mess. What a shocking surprise, eh? How EVER did this happen?

It appears 2nd and I are on the same wavelength, good or bad!
I added to my SDS position and also BMD.
If MU comes back to 12.90 or less I'd nibble there and also SLW looks iffy this AM. I would look at 11.60 or so if it gets there.

Be careful!

following up on Jumble's post - sort of...

Francis Chou is Canadian mutual fund manager, whom I respect, and was recently honoured by some organization or other as "Fund Manager of the Decade". The following is an extract from his 2006 Annual Report, wherein he writes about banks and their portfolios of financial derivatives. I commend it as a very entertaining read:
"Derivatives and financial institutions
We remain a keen and interested observer of derivative instruments. Derivative instruments are financial instruments created by market participants so that they can trade and/or manage more easily the asset upon which these instruments are based. Derivatives are not asset classes unto themselves. Their values are derived solely from an underlying interest, which may be a commodity such as wheat or a financial product such as a bond or stock, a foreign currency, or an economic/stock index.
According to the Bank for International Settlements, contracts outstanding worldwide for
derivatives at the end of June 30, 2006 rose to $370 trillion. We are alarmed by the
exponential rise in the use of derivatives. No one knows how dangerous these instruments
can be. They have not been stress tested. However we cannot remain complacent. We
believe the risk embedded in derivative instruments is pervasive and most likely not limited or localized to a particular industry. Financial institutions are most vulnerable when (not if) surprises occur – and when they occur they are almost always negative.
As a result, we have not invested heavily in financial institutions although at times their
stock prices have come down to buy levels. Some 30 years ago, when an investor looked at a bank, he or she knew what the items on the balance sheet meant. The investor understood what criteria the bankers used to loan out money, how to interpret the loss reserving history, and how to assess the quality and sustainability of revenue streams and expenses of the bank to generate reasonable earnings. In a nutshell, we were able to appraise how much the bank was worth based on how efficiently its bankers were utilizing the 3-6-3 rule.
The 3-6-3 rule works like this: The bank pays 3% on savings accounts, loans out money to businesses with solid financials at 6%, and then the banker leaves the office at 3pm to play golf.
That was 30 years ago and you can see how easy it was to evaluate a bank.
Now, when an investor examines a bank’s financials, he or she is subjected to reams of
information and numbers but has no way of ascertaining with a high degree of certainty how solid the assets are, or whether the liabilities are all disclosed, or even known, much less properly priced. As the investor digs deeper into the footnotes, instead of becoming
enlightened, more doubts may surface about the true riskiness of the bank’s liabilities. Those liabilities could be securitized, hidden in derivative instruments or morphed into any number of other instruments that barely resemble the original loans.
We wonder whether bankers are using a rule that is as difficult to understand as their
derivative instruments. We call it the 1-12-11 rule, namely, the bank pays 1% on checking accounts, loans out money to businesses with weak financials at 12%, and the banker leaves the office at 11am to play golf with hedge fund and private equity managers where they discuss how to chop and/or bundle the loan portfolios into different tranches and create, out of thin air, new derivative products that are rated triple A (from products that originally were B rated). These products are then sold to institutions (who may be oblivious of the risk involved) that are reaching for yields.
The above example is written tongue-in-cheek and it is not meant to be entirely
representative of what bankers do. It is meant to show just how creative participants have
been in producing new derivative products, with little regard for a sound understanding of
their leverage and true risk characteristics. We may be witnessing a ‘tragedy of the
commons’ where the search for quick individual profits is causing a system-wide increase in risk and reckless behavior."

So the portfolio would be:
Short financials
Sell bonds.
Buy basic materials/needs like oil/energy, water, food, products used to produce these.
Long PM's, miners.
Buy actual bullion.
GET OUT OF DEBT.

Additions?

MBLX:

Technicals aligned, lawsuit settled favorably, big joint venture partner (ADM), and biodegradable plastics will be riding the environmental and oil-replacement wave for years to come, IMO.

Went long 1/2 position today for long-term account; looking to add at 25+, placed stop at 5% until mkt settles down, err...in.

Planning to buy some SBUX at the end of the day when the market is down -180.

1) Bill likes it
2)Almost every time in the past 6 months when RSI went below 7 with price at the low end of the price chanel there was a short term bounce.

Correction to my above post:
"Almost every time in the past 6 months when RSI7 went below 30"

Bill, for what its worth, before the web site changes when opening http://www.billcara.com I was signed out and had to sign in to post.

Now, since the change, it say’s I’m signed in, but I’m really not because if I try to post I get this:

Comment Submission Error
Your comment submission failed for the following reasons:
Registration is required.

You are not signed in. You need to be registered to comment on this site. Sign in

Maybe you can get the system to be the same as it was before the changes whereby you have to sign in.

adding to bmd...

What if they gave an auction and nobody came? Looks like Merrill didn't want to find out. "Merrill Blinks" reads the headline in today's NY Post.

Is it me, or are the so-called capitalists and professed free-market loving types more afraid of the market and the resulting prices than ever before?

Merill pulls the auction of it's CDO(2)'s because they are afraid the market will mark down it's load of crapola at least 30% (or more.)

LiquidNet, GSTrue and their ilk spring up to avoid 'tipping off the market' to large movements of equities and capital.

Central banks are making purchases of gold on the sly to avoid market movements. Unless they want to drop the price on any given day. Then they love the market and use it to smash prices.

I'm sure there is a lot more.

I'm just beginning my studies of economic history. And I know things like this have happened before and will happen again (see Livermore's quote about that.)

But...

Can someone with a longer term perspective tell me: Does it seem there is a fear of, or desire to avoid, pricing mechanism after pricing mechanism, in market after market? Is this growing, or is it just my realization of it that is growing?

And like Paulson & Co. with the MBS', who is on the other side of these CDO(2)s that would make money on the price decline and why aren't they screaming bloody murder about Merrill's failure to price correctly?

'Strange days, indeed. Most peculiar, Mama!'

Regards,

Mike
NYC

PS Anybody else get the "Agora Five Minute Forecast?" That was me slamming the new dollar coins, after they wrote something about how there was a mistake on the new coins, where they omitted the rim printing of 'In God We Trust,' and how they would become 'collectible'

Damn. I'm all over the Intertubes. I better get back to work.

Here it is:

""The 'mistakes' are merely an attempt to generate interest in the coin. The government thinks we are stupid.

They think that maybe if people buy enough of them to find the 'mistakes' they will then use them and forget the trash metal they are made from, forget the pathetic attempt to color every new coin 'gold' to make us think they actually have some value, forget the fact that the only way a dollar coin will be accepted is when the dollar bill is withdrawn, and that lobbyists for Crane were able to prevent just that in the bill authorizing the new dollar coins.

All in all these new 'dollar' coins represent so many things wrong with our country far better than they represent a store of value or medium of exchange."

2nd:
BMD could very well go down to < 3 in a market sellof.
IMO you could get better opportunities next week.

JogyP, if it does, i'll add a ST position as well...my confidence in this company may well be off base, but i don't think so...i think you will see far higher valuations by the end of august...

in the meantime...sds/qid still looks good...

To Everyone:
Even though the blog says you are signed on, if the "remember me" button is checked "NO" then when you go to post type key will not recognize you and you will get the error message.

Make sure it's checked YES and see how your posts go through.

A little different chart pattern here boys than the ones I've been seeing this whole run so, yeah, something is different here and it has to do with factors that end credit cycles. THAT has this market spooked ie, rate rises and subprime problem "non-containment". I would be inclined to press the shorting action on a break below 13250 and 1490 and can't argue with initial positioning being done here. Don't try to make your year on the short side. Just keep what's your a then a little bit for your efforts. (Ask David Tice what it is like to "live" on the short side of a manipulated market. Damn painful.)

Good luck and good trading.

MarkM-I take it you are still waiting to pull the trigger on gold...do you think XAU starts to diverge from recent patterns and will begin to revert to the historical "norm" of going up with interest rates and during market downturns?

Should read: "what's yours and then..."

OT

Craig, thanks, but I get the same error message regardless of whether I check yes or no

2ave-

Yes, I am still waiting. Since Goldie and the Miners haven't done squat for a year a lot of passengers are off this bus. My preferred scenario is that a hard market selloff has the remaining longs dumping their positions. At that point you can rest assured you are going to get some extreme bargains whereafter the miners will greatly outperform gold a la late 2005/early 2006. If the selloff never materializes then you are left waiting for a chartbreak of XAU above the 150 level as your trigger. Since this market is so adept at dishing out max pain I still think (70/30) that we get the version where you have to buy when everyone else is having a heart attack. JMHO.

A couple of days ago, someone posted a link to a June 19 article predicting a NASDAQ-type crash of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on June 25 (plus or minus a day).

If we do have a market crash, can I assume fairly safely that the miners will (initially) crash as well?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/barbera/2007/0619.html

Sorry, I should have said that the article predicted a MARKET PEAK on June 25.

But my question stills stands...

mark m-thanks, your 1:08 post was timed right my friend, i cut my 50% short position back to the original 25% based on reading it...

Oh well, sorry. It worked for me as I was getting the same runaround you are.

Looks like we might get another buying opportunity on the short/ultra shorts.

Will Helicopter Ben be PRINTS CHARMING as "liquidity solves everything"?

www.nowandfutures.com suggests M3 expanding at about 13%...banana republic levels

When i look at my universe of about 500 etfs and cefs, interesting assets at or near the top:

TRF/russian and EWT/taiwan...both with poor longterm returns. Is this just a regression to the mean or a trend? I think a trend but would be interested in what others may believe. Russia is mostly energy/mat/tel and taiwan is tech, lots of tech.

Hey where are the investors here!

Bill has MBT/russia in his cara 100. Long that one. Would really like to know of another quality russian position.
Lukoil/lukoy is a possibility but not an easy purchase at fido.

Recent news article: excerpt
MarketWatch
12:01 a.m. 06/20/2007 By Polya Lesova


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Russia's stock market, a star performer in 2006, has been selling off this year, hurt by uncertainty ahead of the presidential elections, a glut of IPOs and overexposure to the underperforming oil and gas sector.

Still, this might be just the right time to buy Russian equities, analysts say. The economy is growing rapidly and stock valuations are cheap, but don't bet on a quick rally.

"More and more people realize that they got decent money [from investing in Russia], but maybe they need to be more careful around the elections," said Ralf Oberbannscheidt, lead portfolio manager of the Central Europe and Russia Fund (CEE) .

2ave-

Yesterday they defended the 50dma and trampolined right off it. They are trying the same script today, that's all. Let's all just take a deep breath and see what happens.

Let me mention here one thing I deeply believe. One of the big advantages held by most members of this board is THAT YOUR PORTFOLIO DOES NOT HAVE TO BEAT ARTIFICIAL DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY BENCHMARKS. The frenetic chasing of performance is a Wall Street game in which the playing field and the tools are all theirs. Time arbitrage is your friend. Let the markets and stocks come to you.

Ron-

Really like your blog and thank you for your work there and your contributions to Bill's.

Definitely a lot of uncertainty in this market. The SPY is ready to roll over. I'm also watching CFC and don't see how it can't keep from tanking given all the bad mortgage news coming out. Today's the day we get a death cross on its 20/50 emas. I think it retests its YTD low before we put away the beach umbrellas.

I'm wary of the miners, too. But don't trust me ... I got shaken out of SLW at its near bottom last week. But after all of this it's nice to see WGDF making steady gains on above avg. volume.

RE: russia

I would not want to put my money in any Russian asset, especially after this rise. Jim Rodgers has stated that the Russians are just stripping assets and reselling them, not making investments in the future. It is frankly a gangster economy with no respect for property rights. They have tremendous energy reserves but they are very difficult to extract. State of the art technology (Western expertise) is needed but Putin believes in nationalization of energy assets - he wrote his PhD thesis on it.

That my 2 cents.

Mark. Well said. I rarely use a chart or tracking system. Due diligence and the performance of the company is my criteria. I use extreme patience and have a few benchmarks I follow. Nine years ago I was given 7 stock as part of an estate. After 1 year I should have sold them because they had surpassed my 100% rule. I could not come to grips selling them because they were left to me by my Grandfather. I still have them and each has increased over 700% in that time.

Yes patience is a virtue.

wgdf...up 3%

ALOHA !!

I still believe there will be a slow grind US Dollar rally and POG will be below $600USD by September ... part of May 2006 correction.

MOLYCOR-MOR.V/MLYFF
I bought into the latest MolyCor private placement for 200,000 shares.
Link: http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070620/0268970.html

Now look what a similar funding bought at last month ... 25% higher! This was a mining fund led by Pathway Asset Management. Only difference being half "flow-through" tax advantaged but warrants are NFT.
Link: http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/070525/200705250393132001.html?.v=1

By mid July MolyCor will be drilling in Nevada(gold & silver)and in Canada(moly).

Accumulating more DBA. AFN.UN is actually up today.

Kaimu. If MOR keeps heading South we will soon be able to get into the next private placement at.10c.

MarkM
thanks for referencing Ron's website. I find it worth revisiting. Maybe because he has TRF as a chart, and he lists one of Bill's India banks on the list of cara beatendown....i.e. potential source of value. And, other good stuff.

Does anyone think that the powers to be supported FIG (Fortress) until the BX IPO came out and now they can let the heavy lifting go?

RIG, SLB, TYC beacons of strength.

moab,
thanks for the caution about russian assets. point well taken.

jogyp-if bmd drops below 3, then they picked the wrong price for the options granted june 14th (C$3.12)...if it gets to that point (on no news, and especially on low volume), then i think it would be imprudent not to take a sizeable amount off someone's hands...in a market drop, opportunities abound...

Speculative stock for next week: MRVL

(rumour: Chip in iphone, expected filing)

Check out the call activity.
" A large customer bought a giant call spread (actually for a credit) 20,000 July 17.5 calls, and sold 20,000 Jan '09 22.5 calls."

Position: Long (20%)

Jasper -

I would be vastly more interested in Taiwan than Russia. Taiwanese market is pretty cheap - 12x earnings last time I looked with a high dividend yield. The market tends to to be correlated with SOX as there are many semiconductor companies.

Should be interesting to see if there is noticeable late day volume on UXG. Also GROW, MRVL (part of the Bermuda incorporated companies being added), and IBKR are being added.

Last year I was holding JLG on Russell add day and it jumped astronomically in the last minute of trading. I wonder if the arbitrageurs are getting any better at this game.....

Particularily the low float on IBKR could make for an interesting situation...

Anybody know what's up with SLB? It's breaking out on the 2nd highest volumne day of the year.

re:russia

moab, I recommend you read "Truth and Beauty" a free strategy monthly put out by Erik Kraus who runs the Nikitsky Russia/CIS Opportunities Fund out of Moscow; I think he's French, maybe Swiss. Hilarious, and more importantly, divergent. I used to think Rogers had the skinny on all the global macro angles, but he's just another viewpoint, among many, who happens to have a story to sell (I used to own some of his commodities fund, but sold it last october...so much for market timing...I digress) Anyway, after reading T&B, I now read the Economist (which is staunchly anti Russia/Putin) with a much more critical eye. Just gotta keep broadening those horizons, its the only way to improve your game.

Bill,

You may have commented on this already, but I watched CNBC for a moment today and saw an ad for the FTSE CNBC Global Index.

CNBC + Index = skin in the game.

Who are they trying to fool? Wait, I know that already...

What a freakin' joke all this is becoming (Goldman, CNBC). The dumbing down of America is finally bearing fruit.

I actually like TRF and almost bought last week, but could not get my limit price. For me its just a matter of finding the right entry point now, but not today.

Amazing day I'm long only and in the black.

For what it's worth regarding Russia, I just read the new book "Death of a Dissident" about Alexander Litvinenko who recently died of polonium poisening in London. It does give a completely different perspective on ex-KGB agent Putin and the Russia he is creating. This book will cause many to question whether long-term Russia is sufficiently trustworthy to merit investment by westerners. I found this book truly shocking.

For what it's worth regarding Russia, I just read the new book "Death of a Dissident" about Alexander Litvinenko who recently died of polonium poisening in London. It does give a completely different perspective on ex-KGB agent Putin and the Russia he is creating. This book will cause many to question whether long-term Russia is sufficiently trustworthy to merit investment by westerners. I found this book truly shocking.

Anyone know what the Northern Miner (a paid-subscription) had to say about Crystallex?

Added SBUX for a short term trade at 25.52

ALOHA !!

Horatio ... We'll see how much south MolyCor-MOR.V/MLYFF.PK goes, but I am obviously buying into the idea that there is little to no downside left! If you want to wait until $0.10 then be my guest but I believe you will have a LONG wait ... I will bet I will have a 100% gain within a month!

Don't forget PMI GOLD-PMV.V/PMVGF.PK. Since I posted yesterday it is up near 15%! Not as good as Blackstone but at least PMI has hard assets backing them not debt!

SiO2:
Bought more DBA myself today. 'Tis a growing, hungry planet, eh?

Thanks Bill et al for your views. I have relatives in Hungary so it is hard for me to be unbiased, though I try. My relatives are very familiar with the Russian way of doing things, which has not been conducive to long-term investment. In the short to medium term Bill is probably right that it presents better financial opportunity than the US.

CNBC, at day’s end, shows a clip of traders clamoring to buy BX at the open. And this is the piece of junk they cannot get their hands on fast enough.

A quote:

“Blackstone's pending IPO.
In the section regarding risks, which goes on to a
mind-numbing 34 pages, the best is that regarding the
present partnership's future responsibilities regarding its
position as a fiduciary. It said
our partnership agreement contains provisions that
reduce or eliminate fiduciary duties of our general
partner... and make it difficult to successfully
challenge a conflict of interest by our general
partner.
In other words, potential buyers of the Blackstone IPO
have just been told, by those who are doing the selling,
that they shall have no recourse against the current
partners for anything, anytime and anywhere. The
"general partners," who should have a very central
fiduciary role to their limited partners and to their eventual
shareholders have said that they have none; they have
disclosed this clearly and those buying into the new shares
have no recourse even if the general partners take actions
that are detrimental to the welfare of the limited partners or
shareholders.”

BX is a trading sardine at best. I would not even give them the pleasure of a bid with OPM.

SLB breaks out with highest volume day of the year at 25,068,064 shares to close at 87.14. After hours bid at 88.60. What’s up!!

This stock and RIG saved my ‘Okole” today. That’s Hawaiian for gluteus maximus region. Used In A Sentence: Hoo, dat wahine get one sweet `okole!

kaimu-

I am agnostic about POG but will become bullish at some point on the miners. As I have pointed out elsewhere, the coming play MAY be long miners/short gold, at least under some scenarios.

Sold some SBUX Jan 22.50 puts, so if the stock gets "put" to me, I'm in under $22 a share.

Follow some oil & telecom Russian stocks mentioned. I consider Russian stocks speculative, caveat emptor. That said:

WBD--Russian agriculture dairy play. If you believe in global food inflation this is another one of my list. No position, but if the market craters and opportunity beckons, I'll move on it.

If you really want insight into Putin and present day Russia, there was a documentary out a few years ago about an individual from Milwaukee, WI, USA, whose mother in Moscow died in an explosion. True story. The individual flew back for the funeral and began to investigate what happened.

Bottom line: It was set up by the government to allow Putin to take control and blame the Chechens. Nothing like a common enemy to bring a nation together believing the spin. Unfortunately, I am unable to recall the name of the documentary, but thought someone else may recall. Excellent perspective on Putin gaining power.

Here’s a play on the words of Seamus.

Bottom line: It was set up by the government to allow Bush to take control and blame the Saddam. Nothing like a common enemy to bring a nation together believing the spin and invade IRAQ.

SLB, 1,809,900 shares just at 89.19 for $161,424,981. It will be interesting to learn the story on this.

Kaimu,

How do you rate Sprott's MLY vs. Molycor? Do you think MLY has similar upside potential?

Seamus, WBD seems to be a buyer of raw dairy foods, seems well run and doing quite well, but wouldn't it be affected by the rising prices of the underlying?

Are any farms traded on stock markets?

SiO2, if your looking for farms and you do not mind them located in Argentina check out CRESY.

The last time I remember a significant shiver going through the financial markets due to a broker in trouble was the Refco issue back in the fall of 2005. Does anyone remember if there were specific selloffs in certain futures that it was a major broker in based on anticipation of forced selling? Trying to think if we can make any comparison to current Bear issues.

The most interesting issue about the current Bear Stearns issue that I have read about is the potential conflict of interest involving the Company's executives in choosing to make the additional $3.2 billion available in loans to the Bear Hedge Funds. In other words - is it really a prudent choice for the Bear the corporation to being using its capital to lend money to Hedge Funds which do not necessarily have any shareholder assets in them. There are also some parallels to the Blackstone IPO here as discussed earlier by Telestar3d and Bill.

I would also be interested in hearing if people expect additional selloff in the coming week due to the continuing revaluation of these subprime loan portfolios or if this is just a passing selloff before the next big move up?

Thank you Telestar!

For those looking for related companies in a given industry, go to http://finance.google.com, type in your symbol and look in the Related Companies area.

ALOHA !!

MarkM ... I'm still short term POG correction, but long term bull. Lets put the POG trading aside ... I believe all people need to hold some gold/silver coins ... not to trade ... but like an insurance policy against a monetary crisis. If you have medical and health insurance what insurance do you have for your monetary health?

aucourant ... You are talking apples and oranges. MolyCor is not a pure MOLY play. MolyCor has gold&silver properties in Nevada and platinum&moly properties in Canada. Yet their moly property in Canada has grades double what Adanac Moly are. MolyCor does not have all its eggs in one basket, which is a good plan ...

SiO2 ... One company that is Hawaii based has a large Hawaii land position and has agriculture subsifiary as well as one of the most well known shipping lines in the World ... MATSON. The company is Alexander & Baldwin(ALEX:NYSE). Yes CRESY is also a BIG farm play.

That gets me thinking ... I think I'll do an IPO ???? Kaimu has no debt loans and all hard assets are producing a profit. I will throw together an IPO under the symbol ... "OPM"! HA !!

kaimu-

I am in agreement with you on "insurance policy" aspect of gold. However, the time to buy the hard metal in the form of coins, with safety, has passed I think.

I love farmland right here. This is timely. Let's keep that discussion going.

Si02--WBD passes those prices on to the stores and consumer, just like the meat companies will increase prices due to their inflating feed grain costs.

Had trouble posting. I typed the next paragraph about 30 minutes ago, but Kaimu, you beat me to the punch!

FWIW, I thought their was a rumor out there about a pending orchid farm IPO symbol KAIMU . . will trade on the Hawaiian exchange.

Bill take a look at CXZ, going higher :)

take a look at the 1 yr chart of FRG, now its CXZ's turn....

A year ago I would have been elated for making money on my GE even noting they had to shitcan plastics to do it, maybe it made sense for them to buy Regency shares since the heavy-lifting has already been done laying pipe (i.e. no pun intended).

Time to re-enter GFI and GG

ALOHA !!

MarkM ... I am always surprised how many people believe the US Dollar is impervious to a major crisis like Russia or Argentina. I believe within ten years a major monetary crisis will hit the US Dollar ... not just a Forex drop to 70 either! This would be a crisis of "confidence" the worst kind of fiat crisis imagineable! You can't trade or manipulate your way out of a "total loss of confidence". Essentially its "GAME OVER" and time to start a legitimate currency! Of course the USA "public" will get no advanced warning on any of this much like the Russian public ...

Tell me why this is too far-fetched now!!!

kaimu-

You have answered your own question. Because the consequences would be horrific, probably as grave as 1930. No one wants "GAME OVER".

All-

As Bill knows, I have a fair amount of political experience. The economic calendar next week is bad for HB&B according to my look-see.

ALOHA !!

MarkM ... The time of crisis arrives exactly when people least expect it. What makes you think a monetary 9-11 is impossible? Not too long ago Americans would have never suspected a handful of terrorists could kill 3000 people and destroy the WTC and attack the Pentagon. If you add in Katrina that makes four major US government entities that were rendered impotent ... Dept Of Defense, the US Congress, the Executive Branch and FEMA. You could add the CIA by technicality ... but bit by bit "confidence" is ebbing ...

From your morning commentary Bill - "Canada’s Finance Minister (and the provincial Finance Ministers) are asking Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge to not tighten here, which would strengthen the Canadian Dollar further and kill in-bound tourism (from the US) and manufacturing exports."

Now this from the Globe and Mail, Friday,June 22,2007- A booming gay travel market in Canada could mitigate dwindling numbers of American tourists, with gay travellers tending to spend almost twice per trip as much as their straight counterparts, a study showed Friday.
“This business could help to compensate for the loss of business coming to Canada from the U.S.,” said Laurence Bernstein, managing partner at Bay Charles Consulting Co., which conducted the study on behalf of the chamber. “There is a pent-up demand for increased travel within Canada among the gay community.”
Today's study showed gay travellers spend about $1,166 per trip, compared to an average $627 for straight people. They're also almost twice as likely to go on vacation or leisure trips than the general public.

Like you say Bill life gets easier the more we help one another. And sometimes you just never know where that help is gonna come from.Thank you and welcome to all gay travellers to Canada.

kaimu-

Yes, but I put that possibility in percentage terms as no better than 1 in 8. Higher than most would think but lower than most of the hard money crowd who think a crackup inevitable. Again, an insurance policy is a good idea. For that we have the PMs.

Bill. Glad you had a good day. I won't be visiting Toronto this weekend. Not my cup of tea. Instead will be leaving tomorrow for a few days fishing on the Miramachi with our 3 teens and 6 visiting teens who are staying with us for the summer.

Should be a wet blast.

Hi all,

I know it's late...

Kaimu, Frank Barbera shares your view on a Gold correction. Here is a copy of his latest newsletter:
COPYWRITED MATERIAL REMOVED

Enjoy your weekend everyone.

107 comments today. Now 108.

Bill, I think you might be on to something with this blog thing.

Have a good weekend everybody.

Regards,

Mike
NYC

Horatio,
Contact me at jbrian@nb.sympatico.ca
Brian

ALOHA !!

Some historical food for thought ...

"In many ways this has been the most remarkably cheerful summer in recent financial history. The stock market speaks for itself. After the serious decline in May, prices of the leading securities have been marching steadily upward... This prosperity might be disquieting if it were accompanied by any of the symptoms of inflation." - Outlook & Independent, August 7, 1929

"Now, of course, the crucial weaknesses of such periods -- price inflation, heavy inventories, over-extension of commercial credit -- are totally absent. The security market seems to be suffering only an attack of stock indigestion... There is additional reassurance in the fact that, should business show any further signs of fatigue, the banking system is in a good position now to administer any needed credit tonic from its excellent Reserve supply." - Business Week, October 19, 1929 (One week before the crash)

"One of the most striking features of the present chapter in stock market history is the failure of the trading community to take serious alarm at portents which once threw Wall Street into a state of alarm... Traders who would formerly have taken the precaution of reducing their commitments just in case a reaction should set in, now feel confident that they can ride out any storm which may develop. But more particularly, the repeated demonstrations which the market has given of its ability to 'come back' with renewed strength after a sharp reaction has engendered a spirit of indifference to all the old-time warnings. As to whether this attitude may not sometime itself become a danger-signal, Wall Street is not agreed." - The New York Times, Sept. 1, 1929 (Two days before the final top)

"It may be well again to stress the all-important point that the Federal Reserve has it in its power to change interest rates downward any time it sees fit to do so and thus to stimulate business." - Financial World, April 10, 1929

The rest of this article goes on to show just how confident Goldman Suchs is in their ability to weather any financial storm.

Link: http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=11515

ALOHA !!

Past "experts" and their confidence ... Are the present "experts" any less confident? I for one never bank on "experts" for anything ...

From 1927 to 1933 ... six years ...

READ ON:
1927--"We will not have any more crashes in our time"---John Maynard Keynes

Jan.12 1928--"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fools paradise,and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future"--
E.Simmons--president New York Stock Exchange

Dec.4 1928--"No congress of the U.S. ever assembled,on surveying the state of the Union,has met with a more pleasing prospect then that which appears at the present time.
In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment--and the highest record of years of prosperity.In the foreign field there is peace,the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding"--Pres.Calvin Coolidge-

Sept.5 1929--"There may be a recession in stock prices,but not anything in the nature of a crash"---Irving Fisher PHD. Professor of economics-Yale University

Oct.24 1929--"This crash is not going to have much effect on business"--Aurther Reynolds-Chairman Continental Illinois Bank

Oct.25 1929--(Black Friday) "There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday--I have no fear of another comparable decline"--A.W. Loasby--Pres. of the Equitable Trust Co.

Nov.1929--"The end of the decline of the stock market will not be long,only a few more days at the most"--Irving Fisher

Dec.1929--"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism--I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring,and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress"--
Andrew W Mellon--U.S.Secretary of the Treasury

May 1930--"While the crash only took place six months ago,I am convinced we have now passed through the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover.There has been no significant bank or industrial failure.That danger too is safely behind us"--President Herbert Hoover

March 9 1933--Executive Order Of The President Of The United States--
"By virtue of the authority vested in me by---The Act of March 9 1933--In which Congress declared a serious emergency exists,I as President do declare that the national emergency still exists;that the continued private hoarding of gold and silver by subjects of the United States poses a grave threat to peace,equal justice,and the well being of the United States;and that appropriate measures must be taken immediately to protect the interests of our people--

All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed,pending action in the due course of law.All sales or purchases of such gold and silver within the borders of the United States and its territories and all foreign exchange transactions or movements of such metals across the border are hereby prohibited--

Your possession of these proscribed metals and/or your maintanence of a safe deposit box to store them is known by the government from bank and insurance records.Therefore be advised that your vault box must remain sealed,and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the "Internal Revenue Service".END

Eric, totally not right posting copyrighted material, Frank is a good guy, be careful, he has kids to feed too.

SLB: May end up on the S&P with the new rules coming out about where companies are domiciled or some such thing.

Bills Hedge Fund Forecast is before us:

"Bear Stearns, which has a reputation on Wall Street as "the smartest guys in the room," was unable to manage the bonds' risks. "

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-subprime23jun23,0,3011228.story?coll=la-tot-business&track=ntothtml

Bill/all - just catching up here - missed the action most of the week, too busy - I have to agree with your comment Bill re:#1 enjoyment day - as a long time reader todays post and comments were absolutely terrific from start to finish - the content was very relevant to current events - todays post just felt different - enjoyed it all in 1.5hrs of reading this early morning am - i think i'll go back to bed now!!

Good Morning .....Oh my gosh! Bill did you think that I...was "celebrating" this weekend. Not that there's anything wrong with that. No. No. No. I am probably one of the worst penny pinchers there are. When I do travel I probably spend 1/2 as much as the average traveller. I was just thanking all those who come to fill in the breach left by those like me.;)

"mark to market" if REOS have no buyers (they are just paper after all if according assets are junk) what are they worth?

8 to 1 leverage is a recipe for disaster!

"Lots of strange things happen in markets that you wonder about. Tell me, for example, why would Colleges want to buy up risky sub-prime debt?"

Bill we constantly hear of pension funds being "desperate" for yield as the worlds "worst generation" comes to maturation. Ofcourse when the dust clears Joe Six Pack like Teachers and Firemen will bear the brunt of the implosion noting their shear numbers. Perhaps the $ 64 question should be when FCB's and petrol-dollar sanitizers realize what they are really holding will they panic and shitcan the dollar. Why buy agencies when you can simply launder more profits into higher crude prices.....Talk about an almost endless loop suppose that EIA report last Wed. stating crude inventories are at a 9 year high got swept under the rug!

Was intersting to see Jim Jubak encourage his readers a few days ago to buy C.D.'s for a "safe" yield, try to convince all those folks of that buying the 10 year yesterday!

"The e-MiNY Aug-07 contract for Crude Oil was 68.325, down from 69.525, and very volatile.

A $70 oil price is a scary thought. Maybe that’s why this oil market is a bundle of nerves?

You can knock these high-paid hedge fund managers (some deserve it), but this is where the good ones earn their keep."

Bill lets dont give the herd mentality too much credit, crude is about the only "safe bet" remaining..... Suppose SPX will hold 1450 as long as folks are convinced that energy is not-fungible and will go higher forever. When does one start shorting around $ 75 at the end oif storm season in Sept.; set your watch to this play!

Telestar, just thought I'd mention that SLB and many other stocks had unusual volume Friday due to the Russell rebalancing. SLB is on the add list. MRVL is, too.