Just grabbed a copy of 'Great Wave' on Amazon. 5 bucks in 'like new' condition. I just finished 'The History of Money' by Jack Weatherford. Not bad, but it covers a lot of ground fast. As a primer, it's good. But it only whetted my appetite for more. Lots more. I'd get Davies 'History of Money' but I'm too cheap to pay 34 + shipping!

If anyone has suggestions for other good books on monetary history or economic history, pass 'em on.

Tonight I'm starting 'Amarillo Slim in a World of Fat People: The Memoirs of the Greatest Gambler Who Ever Lived' (1.96 plus shipping for a brand new remainder copy from Amazon - love it!) I'm looking forward to this one. It should be good. He's a character.

Regards, all, and a good Father's Day to all the father's and their sons out there,

Mike
NYC

The new Aden Sisters report talks about this mega-trend
with rising interest rates signaling a long period coming
of inflation with rising commodity prices. The mega-trend
reversal is coming now with the big long term change in interest rate direction>UP.

http://tinyurl.com/2pn8m2

Bill- Happy Fathers Day!

mikenyc -

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/llyfr.html

it's not the book, but it's free...

Hi Bill,
I went to pre-order your book and noticed the $20 shipping cost to a US address. Seems a little steep. Is this correct or still a prototype?

TIA

I agree that the trend has probably changed and we are still in the relatively early stages of the commodities bull.

Therefore - I do agree that at some stage over the next ten years we will reach a point where rising commodities prices and rising inflation impact interest rates - driving yields on treasuries dramatically higher and higher - similar to the 1970s period.

Although I think we are already at point where this should happen Fundamentally and even technically - the perception of vast majority of market participants does not match up yet. Mutual fund managers and the gnomes have 25 years of historical data they are using as part of their marketing machine to push equities on the public.

The new trend does not have good implications for them. Although stock Prices may rise during this commodities bull, stock valuations measured by PE multiples are more likely to mean revert back to historical averages as they did back in the 1970s. Ed Easterling's study of inflation's impact on equities valuation at www.crestmontresearch.com is quite revealing.

I think we can explain some of these false breakouts and breakdowns in the gold market and bond markets by the prevailing bias. Gold despite having made a nice move over the past few years is still being contained in the short term by market perceptions that rising interest rates will control inflation and inflationary expectations.

It has been a long time ( I am guessing since the 1970s?!) that metals actually responded to higher inflation reports and higher interest rates by going higher as part of some self-reinforcing cycle. Past twenty years and disinflationary cycle have allowed the gnomes to create historical models and frameworks for analyzing stocks that may not work anywhere near as well over the coming years.

Finally, I would not expect the mainstream public and media to come around to this until very late in the cycle. Probably that is when commodities and metals will make some of their largest moves (I am talking 7-10 years out here).

NEW HOMEPAGE LOOKS GREAT!

Regarding recent hopes for gold:

We will know when we are in the next leg up when we see the prices heading in that direction. Solidly. And Miners leading when other sectors are choppy or down. Bill has given us some nice benchmarks to look for in this regard.

Some say that the HUI has to back pedal a bit more.

Some say well bonds are backing off on yield again and that this thing will launch now.

Paul Karisel surprisingly is holding to a Q4 rate cut just like somebody we know. The rate cut will cause a panic about the $ and cause masses to seek shelter in Gold.

Others intimate to watch the yen, when it starts to appreciate against other currencies watch out, that will be it.

Others are now saying the Gold/$ ratio does not matter anymore, the Euro is king. Yeah I would feel better if spot gold was at EU500.

Miner equities were up nicely today, yes because the other markets were up too, they are still connected, money is rotating around, one sector to the next. As some longs take positions in the pits spreaders are also

This credit and liquidity thing is insane and as much as many of us are aware what is happening behind the economic scenes, MANY do not.

The worldwide credit and liquidity boom that so many people have experienced recently will not easily be taken away. People and organizations have become addicted to credit, liquidity and leverage, and although the price is a little higher (increased treasury, note and bond yields)they will continue using these things to purchase imported Chinese goods from our brothers over there or buying multi-billion dollar companies in L.B.O.'s. The addiction is so great who know's what yields it might take to cause significant change in spending and purchasing behavior

Greenspan and his buddies in Central Banks around the world have gotten people and companies high on this stuff. Even nation's Sovereign Funds are jumping on the equity bandwagon, they want better returns.

Everybody is addicted to making lots of money in the capital markets and "buying stuff they cannot afford." Hell that's why liquidity is increasing in the first place, so that NATIONS can buy stuff that they cannot afford.

What will change this? A Significant Emotional Experience! People do not change their behavior until something touches them deeply. Another stated that change does not happen until the pain of not changing is worse than the pain of implementing change.

A stock market correction would fit what is just mentioned. It could originate from a whole lot of little black boxes making some bad decisions over the course of a couple of days or weeks. It could be too much Saki in Shanghai, or some dreaded Geo-Political event

Looking at the macro picture we see a lot of things happen that you'd think would influence the markets but they don't. When you have masses of individuals and organizations jacked up on something it is hard to change their overall behavior.

Until this thing gets knocked right out of the saddle with a big baseball bat, it might just keep going longer than we think. We are talking about literally billions of people that are riding this equity train with the new lifestyles that they have either earned or been given.

Where am I going with this. I have only been at this seriously, about a year and half. I have made money from Gold and Oil. Other people have made more money from other sectors over the last almost year. It concerns me that there is so much hoping and wondering back and forth over PM's and it seems almost too emotional. Prices and TA are what will tell us when we have gotten out of this particular price movement and moved on to the next. Yes even for KRY.

You do not have to be early to be right, early is not necessarily the right time. It is ok to be trader, it is ok to be long.

Bill:

Like the font size for the NEW opening blog page.

agaunv:

Thanks for the calm evaluation. I've alwasys liked the bumper sticker that read:

"The one who ends up with all the toys, wins."

Changes:
Bill, the site looks fine. One change would be the font used in the paragraphs - Times New Roman is an easier read.The content itself, as always, is educational.