Bill Cara: Bill Cara’s Saturday Report 24-2007, 06/23/2007 6:03 AM

« Cara’s Daily Commentary, Fri., June 22, 2007, 7:47 AM | Main | Week in Review #25 (2007-06-23) »

June 23, 2007

Bill Cara’s Saturday Report 24-2007, 06/23/2007 6:03 AM

This “Saturday Report” includes (i) Week In Review (WIR) Tables, (ii) end-of-the-week tables and charts (used in the Daily Commentary), (iii) Impulse system report, (iv) Friday Value Line Dow Report(s), and (v) an explanation of some of the changes you are finding in my site development.

My "Week In Review" will be published Sunday at 12:00pm ET (Noon).

WIR Tables for Week #25 (2007-06-23)

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

SMH 38.28 -0.57 -1.47% 0.10% 4.25% 6.13% 14.03% 11.44% 14.99% 16.49%

XLB 41.03 0.02 0.05% -0.17% 1.56% 3.17% 18.55% 7.80% 18.96% 33.74%

XLI 39.00 -0.38 -0.96% -1.07% 0.91% 1.91% 10.70% 7.88% 11.40% 17.65%

XLY 39.38 -0.27 -0.68% -1.13% 0.05% -0.38% 2.23% 1.99% 3.01% 19.66%

IYZ 33.70 -0.28 -0.82% -1.23% -1.20% 0.21% 13.62% 7.56% 15.89% 35.67%

XLE 69.96 -0.44 -0.63% -1.44% 3.00% 4.81% 23.65% 16.76% 19.41% 33.97%

XLP 26.99 -0.21 -0.77% -1.82% -1.89% -1.32% 2.70% 0.97% 3.53% 12.88%

XLF 36.44 -0.56 -1.51% -2.70% -2.04% -2.88% -1.30% 0.77% -0.30% 14.48%

IYH 69.45 -0.97 -1.38% -2.77% -1.91% -3.74% 4.50% 2.65% 4.85% 16.47%

XLU 38.80 -0.66 -1.67% -4.06% -1.22% -5.55% 5.38% -2.17% 6.10% 22.71%

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

CEO 113.69 -3.26 -2.79% 3.80% 8.32% 24.16% 20.60% 36.48% 29.18% 50.90%

STO 29.51 -0.34 -1.14% 1.48% 7.35% 6.65% 14.87% 11.48% 12.33% 15.05%

PBR 121.50 -1.69 -1.37% 0.03% 10.92% 14.60% 21.91% 28.48% 23.82% 52.24%

TOT 78.59 -0.76 -0.96% -0.20% 5.57% 4.86% 10.74% 15.44% 11.54% 27.89%

ECA 65.50 -0.27 -0.41% -0.30% 4.27% 8.95% 44.46% 32.24% 39.72% 33.78%

IMO 46.63 -0.13 -0.28% -1.21% 0.32% 1.66% 30.76% 28.07% 30.65% 40.37%

SU 89.78 -0.71 -0.78% -1.84% 2.65% 5.15% 21.47% 23.87% 15.24% 25.76%

CVX 81.55 -1.30 -1.57% -1.95% 1.07% 1.98% 14.91% 11.82% 12.13% 39.02%

XOM 82.52 -1.78 -2.11% -3.98% -0.19% 0.29% 11.35% 10.97% 9.43% 42.35%

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

BHP 59.47 -0.92 -1.52% 2.76% 6.62% 19.90% 53.00% 26.18% 53.39% 45.69%

MT 64.41 -1.90 -2.87% 0.22% 4.39% 12.17% 57.87% 23.58% 54.50% 104.80%

TS 48.23 -0.28 -0.58% -0.97% 2.62% 4.24% -0.60% 10.67% -3.29% 36.36%

GGB 24.86 -0.66 -2.59% -1.43% 6.70% 18.89% 51.40% 38.65% 56.75% 86.36%

RTP 303.43 -5.17 -1.68% -1.61% 7.74% 8.96% 48.67% 35.46% 46.78% 48.10%

NUE 61.56 -0.70 -1.12% -2.32% -7.58% -3.68% 12.95% -4.85% 11.58% 23.79%

TCK 44.97 -0.20 -0.44% -3.27% 4.97% 16.23% -35.06% -34.77% -37.55% 0.00%

RIO 45.17 -0.84 -1.83% -3.79% 1.69% 7.22% 56.73% 22.25% 54.59% 102.10%

AA 40.00 -0.34 -0.84% -3.85% 0.86% -0.52% 36.38% 18.73% 36.80% 33.38%

PKX 121.00 -3.75 -3.01% -6.64% -2.87% 7.27% 52.34% 19.68% 46.49% 101.16%

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

ABB 22.39 -0.01 -0.04% 0.63% 5.41% 7.49% 25.65% 27.72% 28.31% 83.68%

GE 38.24 -0.56 -1.44% 0.31% 2.47% 2.30% 0.71% 6.79% 1.78% 15.04%

CAT 80.90 -0.57 -0.70% -0.26% 3.03% 7.25% 32.28% 21.58% 33.52% 11.93%

UTX 71.38 -0.57 -0.79% -0.87% 1.64% 4.57% 13.64% 8.02% 14.10% 15.33%

FDX 109.96 -0.96 -0.87% -1.27% 0.51% 3.81% 0.17% -0.61% 2.32% -3.10%

MMM 86.43 -0.98 -1.12% -1.41% 0.57% -0.83% 10.44% 11.12% 10.31% 8.59%

BA 95.92 -1.28 -1.32% -2.27% -2.31% -1.54% 7.57% 5.91% 8.07% 14.11%

ERJ 48.69 -1.58 -3.14% -5.33% 2.44% 5.21% 19.40% 8.68% 20.22% 39.55%

HON 55.68 -0.70 -1.24% -5.42% -2.96% -0.55% 23.46% 17.02% 24.76% 42.40%

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

BC 33.78 -0.12 -0.35% -0.06% 0.24% -1.03% 5.83% 5.63% 6.93% 0.18%

DIS 34.14 -0.05 -0.15% -0.76% -0.18% -4.74% -0.18% -3.37% -0.06% 16.60%

CCL 49.32 0.99 2.05% -0.78% 0.65% -0.50% -3.20% 3.09% 0.92% 20.44%

EBAY 31.76 0.63 2.02% -0.87% 1.08% -2.90% 5.27% -1.85% 5.10% 5.83%

NKE 52.95 -0.63 -1.18% -0.88% -0.02% -2.79% 8.44% -2.49% 5.96% 26.25%

WHR 112.98 -1.79 -1.56% -1.50% 1.94% 1.62% 33.45% 29.67% 38.27% 40.64%

TM 123.02 -1.97 -1.58% -1.94% -1.15% 2.24% -9.08% -7.36% -6.74% 21.97%

JCP 72.97 -0.57 -0.78% -3.58% -6.81% -7.48% -6.52% -10.41% -8.29% 7.82%

SBUX 25.54 -0.72 -2.74% -8.03% -7.70% -9.78% -27.55% -19.28% -28.72% -29.23%

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

WAG 45.00 0.15 0.33% 1.67% 1.56% 0.92% -2.32% -5.00% -3.60% 3.21%

KO 51.62 -0.47 -0.90% 0.08% -0.10% 0.74% 6.26% 6.98% 6.70% 20.41%

BUD 52.45 -0.65 -1.22% -0.83% -0.29% 2.28% 6.56% 3.05% 7.26% 15.27%

DEO 84.04 -0.17 -0.20% -2.02% 1.42% -1.32% 5.67% 6.72% 7.26% 25.00%

PG 61.03 -0.85 -1.37% -2.46% -3.23% -2.93% -5.44% -4.42% -4.34% 9.27%

PEP 64.86 -1.02 -1.55% -2.73% -2.63% -5.24% 3.41% 1.17% 2.79% 8.06%

WMT 47.83 -0.56 -1.16% -3.06% -4.49% 2.53% 0.59% -0.37% 5.03% -1.34%

WFMI 38.30 -0.05 -0.13% -3.43% -2.59% -5.41% -15.79% -12.84% -19.67% -38.35%

MO 68.20 -0.38 -0.55% -3.50% -2.99% -3.22% 5.05% 5.49% 7.18% 25.83%

ABV 68.99 -1.25 -1.78% -7.69% 1.07% 6.19% 40.51% 28.95% 41.43% 78.73%

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

BMY 31.40 -0.62 -1.94% 2.08% 7.28% 4.56% 19.03% 12.99% 20.77% 22.51%

BMET 45.50 -0.02 -0.04% -0.09% 0.02% 4.31% 9.72% 7.16% 11.06% 29.30%

NVS 55.45 0.29 0.53% -0.91% 0.65% -1.12% -4.63% -2.86% -3.88% 6.04%

GSK 51.83 -0.42 -0.80% -1.74% 0.50% -1.45% -3.68% -6.58% -1.07% -4.72%

AET 49.11 -0.26 -0.53% -2.23% -6.01% -4.83% 14.53% 7.63% 13.50% 22.01%

DNA 74.83 -1.14 -1.50% -2.82% -2.78% -3.62% -8.52% -12.25% -6.87% -2.69%

UNH 51.30 -0.47 -0.91% -3.02% -4.42% -5.37% -2.42% -7.88% -4.02% 15.46%

JNJ 60.73 -1.38 -2.22% -3.25% -2.25% -4.33% -8.54% -0.21% -7.49% -0.74%

PFE 25.38 -0.54 -2.08% -4.12% -4.30% -6.96% -3.46% -1.59% -2.27% 12.05%

AMGN 55.96 -1.31 -2.29% -5.20% -2.46% 2.55% -18.19% -7.46% -18.56% -13.87%

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

HBC 92.28 -1.12 -1.20% -0.30% -0.27% -0.26% -0.74% 4.70% 1.52% 6.47%

GS 222.40 -4.50 -1.98% -1.68% -1.18% -1.45% 10.80% 5.86% 12.27% 49.96%

DB 146.70 -3.02 -2.02% -1.77% 2.12% -4.85% 8.39% 10.10% 11.20% 37.39%

C 52.41 -1.25 -2.33% -2.91% -1.73% -4.59% -5.14% 1.10% -3.92% 8.80%

UBS 60.65 -0.90 -1.46% -2.91% -1.48% -4.05% -1.21% 1.46% 2.62% 14.54%

CS 71.55 -1.98 -2.69% -3.01% -0.93% -4.06% 2.05% -3.25% 3.77% 0.00%

LEH 76.62 -2.62 -3.31% -3.10% 3.28% 4.56% -2.56% 4.72% -0.31% 21.14%

JPM 48.72 -1.12 -2.25% -3.64% -3.35% -5.56% 1.35% 0.52% 1.78% 18.63%

MS 84.60 -2.69 -3.08% -4.39% -2.87% 0.17% 3.65% 4.28% 6.15% 40.98%

MER 84.48 -2.82 -3.23% -6.37% -4.84% -8.78% -9.75% -0.66% -7.04% 24.44%

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

ADSK 46.66 -0.51 -1.08% 3.69% 5.61% 4.29% 15.04% 19.79% 16.53% 33.58%

SAP 50.50 -0.55 -1.08% 3.42% 3.25% 7.24% -5.08% 9.12% -3.20% -1.56%

SNDK 47.90 -0.64 -1.32% 3.23% 8.32% 14.05% 14.81% 10.11% 13.97% -8.22%

QCOM 42.99 -0.57 -1.31% 0.84% 2.67% -1.38% 14.76% -0.83% 13.70% 3.89%

CSCO 26.92 -0.40 -1.46% -1.72% 1.66% 5.98% -2.96% 2.09% -0.04% 36.72%

INTC 23.70 -0.59 -2.43% -2.23% 8.57% 7.87% 16.46% 23.70% 18.03% 29.86%

ORCL 19.39 -0.29 -1.47% -2.37% 1.73% 3.41% 10.74% 4.87% 13.33% 35.31%

CTSH 75.93 -0.57 -0.75% -3.91% 0.61% 1.32% -2.35% -18.35% -0.17% 17.16%

INFY 51.15 -0.64 -1.24% -4.05% 2.88% 5.33% -8.37% -4.29% -3.36% 42.76%

ADBE 40.84 -0.69 -1.66% -4.47% -5.11% -2.74% 2.30% -4.74% 0.22% 32.64%

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Month 4.56 4.54 4.37 4.73

6 Month 4.73 4.74 4.64 4.77

2 Year 4.89 4.95 5.00 4.81

3 Year 4.94 5.00 5.03 4.76

5 Year 4.99 5.05 5.06 4.75

10 Year 5.11 5.17 5.14 4.83

30 Year 5.23 5.28 5.23 4.98

Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 3.78 3.76 3.77 3.69

2yr AAA 3.75 3.75 3.74 3.59

2yr A 3.82 3.87 3.78 3.65

5yr AAA 3.89 3.86 3.90 3.65

5yr AA 3.89 3.89 3.93 3.66

5yr A 2.23 1.36 1.67 3.75

10yr AAA 4.07 4.05 4.09 3.80

10yr AA 4.14 4.17 4.12 3.78

10yr A 4.28 4.26 4.36 4.08

20yr AAA 4.73 4.71 4.71 4.38

20yr AA 4.68 4.66 4.67 4.26

20yr A 4.73 4.73 4.76 4.44

Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 5.25 5.30 5.35 5.18

2yr A 5.36 5.40 5.43 5.27

5yr AAA 5.52 5.57 5.59 5.29

5yr AA 5.62 5.68 5.67 5.33

5yr A 5.68 5.73 5.71 5.38

10yr AAA 5.86 5.90 5.83 5.75

10yr AA 5.95 6.00 5.93 5.58

10yr A 6.00 6.04 5.97 5.67

20yr AAA 6.24 6.29 6.29 5.94

20yr AA 6.25 6.28 6.14 5.93

20yr A 6.37 6.43 6.43 6.08

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

TIP 98.47 0.40 0.41% 0.44% 0.33% -1.17% -0.77% -2.57% -0.89% -0.27%

IEF 80.44 0.23 0.29% 0.27% 0.17% -1.91% -2.71% -3.48% -3.21% 0.70%

SHY 79.98 0.08 0.10% 0.21% 0.31% -0.14% -0.07% -0.55% -0.37% 0.63%

AGG 98.08 0.23 0.24% 0.19% 0.38% -1.34% -1.83% -2.41% -2.42% 0.94%

TLT 83.72 0.43 0.52% 0.04% -0.32% -3.29% -6.01% -5.94% -6.34% 0.14%

CFC 37.18 -0.74 -1.95% -3.25% -2.95% -7.05% -11.71% 2.20% -10.11% 0.30%

FNM 66.00 -1.33 -1.98% -4.00% 2.56% 1.93% 10.26% 16.30% 10.59% 40.22%

FRE 62.27 -0.45 -0.72% -4.20% -3.65% -6.19% -8.28% 0.05% -8.41% 8.81%

Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

ABX 29.75 0.17 0.57% 2.09% 5.05% 2.59% -0.27% 2.27% -0.50% 6.71%

BVN 35.59 -0.95 -2.60% 1.74% 5.77% 11.50% 28.90% 19.83% 32.06% 35.63%

GFI 16.50 -0.18 -1.08% 0.61% 2.68% -4.35% -9.98% -9.19% -10.81% -18.92%

LIHRY 40.75 0.34 0.84% 0.02% -10.54% -7.20% 23.37% 0.00% 0.00% 2.77%

AEM 36.29 -0.57 -1.55% -1.25% 1.91% 7.05% -6.76% -5.17% -9.55% 21.66%

MDG 25.88 -0.07 -0.27% -1.41% 2.50% 4.73% -1.56% 3.11% -4.54% -11.34%

GG 24.43 0.03 0.12% -1.61% 2.13% 8.63% -10.64% 0.41% -10.05% -10.35%

AUY 12.66 -0.09 -0.71% -2.54% -2.99% -0.71% 2.68% -13.23% 0.96% 38.66%

NEM 39.38 -0.57 -1.43% -2.60% -1.30% -0.18% -10.90% -9.49% -12.53% -20.46%

KGC 12.65 -0.16 -1.25% -3.95% -1.25% -1.02% 10.77% -9.77% 11.26% 29.74%

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

FXI 128.70 -1.23 -0.95% 4.86% 11.24% 17.02% 10.57% 26.10% 24.00% 79.87%

IFN 42.42 -0.57 -1.33% 1.97% 1.48% 2.54% -6.44% 4.41% -9.74% -4.74%

QQQQ 47.29 -0.45 -0.94% -0.92% 0.81% 2.45% 9.37% 6.85% 10.16% 23.83%

IEV 115.74 -1.35 -1.15% -1.41% 0.82% 0.12% 9.60% 7.30% 11.93% 32.43%

EWU 25.22 -0.31 -1.21% -1.45% 0.80% 0.28% 7.09% 5.17% 9.08% 24.24%

EWJ 14.40 -0.19 -1.30% -1.64% -1.84% 0.49% 1.41% -3.23% 1.91% 10.77%

SPY 150.55 -1.40 -0.92% -1.65% -0.32% -0.39% 6.49% 5.15% 6.96% 20.96%

EWC 29.83 -0.22 -0.73% -2.45% 0.61% 1.29% 20.77% 14.60% 19.18% 32.11%

EWZ 61.04 -1.30 -2.09% -2.59% 4.88% 8.77% 30.71% 25.31% 34.33% 71.41%

TRF 67.08 -1.60 -2.33% -3.05% 4.85% 2.32% -24.25% -4.73% -26.52% 8.33%

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

HD 39.36 -0.59 -1.48% 3.72% 3.72% 1.05% -4.16% 2.69% 1.21% 7.89%

GM 35.46 -0.50 -1.39% 2.31% 14.39% 16.38% 20.41% 16.95% 20.53% 30.03%

DD 52.30 0.05 0.10% 1.61% 2.29% 1.87% 6.65% 1.85% 7.68% 25.24%

GE 38.24 -0.56 -1.44% 0.31% 2.47% 2.30% 0.71% 6.79% 1.78% 15.04%

KO 51.62 -0.47 -0.90% 0.08% -0.10% 0.74% 6.26% 6.98% 6.70% 20.41%

CAT 80.90 -0.57 -0.70% -0.26% 3.03% 7.25% 32.28% 21.58% 33.52% 11.93%

IBM 104.44 -2.16 -2.03% -0.62% 1.33% 0.47% 7.37% 9.72% 9.65% 35.30%

DIS 34.14 -0.05 -0.15% -0.76% -0.18% -4.74% -0.18% -3.37% -0.06% 16.60%

UTX 71.38 -0.57 -0.79% -0.87% 1.64% 4.57% 13.64% 8.02% 14.10% 15.33%

HPQ 45.18 -0.32 -0.70% -1.16% -1.31% -0.48% 8.55% 11.69% 11.20% 37.03%

MMM 86.43 -0.98 -1.12% -1.41% 0.57% -0.83% 10.44% 11.12% 10.31% 8.59%

AIG 71.25 -0.80 -1.11% -1.78% -0.39% -0.41% -1.25% 4.46% -0.59% 20.01%

INTC 23.70 -0.59 -2.43% -2.23% 8.57% 7.87% 16.46% 23.70% 18.03% 29.86%

BA 95.92 -1.28 -1.32% -2.27% -2.31% -1.54% 7.57% 5.91% 8.07% 14.11%

PG 61.03 -0.85 -1.37% -2.46% -3.23% -2.93% -5.44% -4.42% -4.34% 9.27%

C 52.41 -1.25 -2.33% -2.91% -1.73% -4.59% -5.14% 1.10% -3.92% 8.80%

WMT 47.83 -0.56 -1.16% -3.06% -4.49% 2.53% 0.59% -0.37% 5.03% -1.34%

AXP 61.79 -0.87 -1.39% -3.10% -1.98% -3.48% 2.37% 7.57% 1.54% 17.14%

VZ 41.63 -0.81 -1.91% -3.16% -3.34% -2.14% 10.07% 9.52% 13.90% 27.15%

JNJ 60.73 -1.38 -2.22% -3.25% -2.25% -4.33% -8.54% -0.21% -7.49% -0.74%

MSFT 29.49 -0.73 -2.42% -3.28% -1.86% -2.25% -1.24% 4.32% -0.51% 28.89%

MCD 50.42 -0.65 -1.27% -3.35% -1.93% -1.06% 14.93% 13.33% 15.72% 54.90%

MO 68.20 -0.38 -0.55% -3.50% -2.99% -3.22% 5.05% 5.49% 7.18% 25.83%

T 38.85 -0.74 -1.87% -3.55% -3.50% -3.88% 11.16% -0.66% 11.06% 42.36%

JPM 48.72 -1.12 -2.25% -3.64% -3.35% -5.56% 1.35% 0.52% 1.78% 18.63%

AA 40.00 -0.34 -0.84% -3.85% 0.86% -0.52% 36.38% 18.73% 36.80% 33.38%

XOM 82.52 -1.78 -2.11% -3.98% -0.19% 0.29% 11.35% 10.97% 9.43% 42.35%

PFE 25.38 -0.54 -2.08% -4.12% -4.30% -6.96% -3.46% -1.59% -2.27% 12.05%

MRK 48.55 -0.75 -1.52% -4.30% -3.17% -9.67% 10.29% 9.92% 13.36% 37.73%

HON 55.68 -0.70 -1.24% -5.42% -2.96% -0.55% 23.46% 17.02% 24.76% 42.40%

Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]

(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 22: next one is due Sep. 21)

Chart of BA:

International Economics Review

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week

Econoday report on the US Housing Starts for May
Mon. June 25: report to come on US Existing Home Sales for May

Wed. June 27 report to come on US Durable Goods Orders for May

Thurs. June 28 report to come on Final 1Q07 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Fri. June 29 report to come on US Personal Income & Outlays for May

International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Paciic stock exchanges.

Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Industry “Impulse” Review

“Jock” reports:

This week, only chemicals, electronics and internet were “green”, while drugs turned “red”, and real-estate stayed “red”. Momentum (herein defined as MACD-H) slowed to “neutral” in the 26 major industry groups.

Thus, in the last 4 weeks, the “net green” count has moved from 26 industries to 1 to 15 and back to 1. Nothing steady about these market internals!

This week, 30 Cara 100 stocks were “green” and 30 were “red”. By contrast, 12 of the Dow 65 (industrials+transports+utilities) were “green”, while 34 were negative; 24 of the S&P 100 stocks were “green”, while 37 were “red”.

/Jock

Cara 100 “Greens”

Cara 100 “Reds”

Bonds & Yields Review

Here is the T-Bond chart.

Forex Review

Here is the $USD chart at the close of the prior session.

Commodities Review

Here is the $CRB Index chart.

Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Aug-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review

Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.

Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.

Here is the Recent Spot Platinum chart.

Here is the Recent Spot Palladium chart.

Precious Metals Stocks Review

Here are the Daily and Weekly Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily and Weekly US Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Daily and Weekly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

ABX NEM GG GFI KGC AU HMY AUY BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

This data is supplied every day by the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc.

The Cara 100 list was changed a week ago Friday to add Genentech (DNA) and remove Autodesk (ADSK).

Here are the Friday session’s Cara 100 gainers

Interactive chart of the top Watch List gainers

Here are the Friday session’s Cara 100 losers

Interactive chart of the top Watch List losers (Interactive link)

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Friday session

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes in Friday’s session. This is a good list to watch anytime markets start trending in the extreme. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes. That btw is called Money Flow.

Charts of Cara 100 stock ratings changes

In Focus

Other Recent Wall Street upgrades

Other Recent Wall Street downgrades

There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes.

The Cara Global 100 RSI-7 Studies

Using data from “Chris” – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which he takes from Worden, the Cara 100 Company stocks that are below 30 on the Daily RSI-7 are as follows:

RSI > 70 (5)

RSI < 70 (12)

Here, from “David” (as soon as available) are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest and lowest Daily RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for the previous session.

Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with highest RSI-7 with Monthly-Weekly-Daily all either >70 or <30

Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with RSI-7 Daily all >70 or all <30

Some of you have already been asking about the mysterious blue lines and words that have been appearing at various points within current and past blog pages. Well, because a more detailed explanation is being prepared, let me just say for now that the highlighted blue areas are advertisements that have been adopted to respect your preferences regarding the way this web site should evolve.

As a group, you told me you don't want "Bozo the Clown" type banner advertising that has become an Internet staple (even though almost all said you would tolerate it). Rather, you prefer a traditional "pin stripe" look-and-feel that is conducive to undisrupted thinking, reflection, community chat and "things of that nature" -- more like the feeling of a town hall, old style barbershop, frequent flier lounge, quiet street corner, coffee shop or maybe "e-country club" -– any place where flashing neon is out of place.

As I have mentioned before, I'm in the process of transitioning this site and I'm willing to experiment. The ads you see are truly different. They are called "in text" ads. They are there for you to respond, but only if you choose to. They are not "in your face" attention-blinkers that assume you only buy something on impulse or when distracted from substance. They are, in fact, a technology marvel of their own -- but more on that later.

For now, let me just say that the ads you should expect to see will be for products and services that I believe could appeal to the Cara Community. There will of course be some trial & error here for a time, but the results should become predictable. Btw, for those who happened to notice, the very first ad posting was for Wall St Journal, which I assume many of us already read. If you're curious, I don't expect to see any for New York Post. We are not that "segment" of Rupert Murdoch’s vision.

So please, tell me what you think as regards the in-text ads appearance, load-time (for those of you who have asked, you have to load the complete page before you see them), their appeal, value, etc. It will help in shaping other ideas I have for "non-destructive" advertising to complement this initiative. And btw, what do you think of the highlight color of the ads relative to the recent changes we made to the site? We can make the ad link color anything we want. Any preference?

Next on my agenda is to switch to Movable Type Blog Publishing software to their MT4 version, which started into beta testing on June 8, and hopefully will become a production system soon. One of the features is that by registering with the Cara Community, you will not have to register with that terrible third-party service that has been giving us grief lately.

I can’t do all these changes myself, of course. One of my new helpers is my daughter Stef, who tells me she has a few hours available during her busy week. Another is my techie Steve who helped me build some major technology platforms in the past.

Change is healthy. Little by little, these changes, hopefully, will add up to our mutual good health.

Have a great day. Please feel free to comment below.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 23, 2007 06:15:30 AM | Category: Saturday Report

Discourse

Moin from Germany,

here is more on the Bear Sterns saga....

Bear bailed only the less risk hedge funds with $3.2 billion out.....

.....But bank doesn't lend money to other, more leveraged, hedge fund

The more leveraged High Grade Structured Credit Enhanced Leveraged Fund didn't get a loan...

I think this Story will bring risk premiums back to the market.

Have a nice weekend

Posted by: jmf at June 23, 2007 8:25 AM [link]

Does the market have a 'last gasp' upward bounce amidst this 'up-down' day 'market alternans'?

If it does, what would be the tell? The broker-dealers (XBD), banks (BKX), and Insurance (IUX) spaces?

I don't expect the powers that be/hedge funds to get crushed in the last week of the quarter...after all...it is about them, right?

Posted by: Ron at June 23, 2007 9:38 AM [link]

JogyP-re BMD

I have a hard time coming up with reasons why a market downturn would affect BMD's business to the point that earnings would drop significantly. I wouldn't expect oil companies to delay plans for building roads and structures...these are projects that will extend out for many years and will proceed regardless of short-term shocks. It would also be premature to expect demand for oil to drop in the face of a financial crisis. Are oil companies going to put oil sands projects on hold even if they do go down? Will China be gearing down its plans for growth? These are very long-term plans that are hopefully not pegged to short-term movements in oil prices. BMD also has major competitive advantages in a niche market, and is in the approval process for other uses of its product (eg, use of quicklime to reduce pollution during scrubbing of oil sands) which are currently not priced into the stock.

At this point, my position is equivalent in size and basis to what an insider would have been granted in options, so I'm hoping for good things. When the good things start happening, the stock price won't be where it is now.

Posted by: 2nd_ave at June 23, 2007 12:00 PM [link]

Bill, check the 'David' RSI-7 section. I get four red X's there. Missing images? Everything else looks fine. Maybe it's just me?

Posted by: MikeNYC at June 23, 2007 12:43 PM [link]

Re "David's" RSI studies. After he sends them, I upload them and you can hit refresh to see.

David is a practising doctor in NY State who kindly sends me these reports as part of his Team Cara contribution. When he's not available, "Sergey" helps out.

David does them at night during the week, so they are ready for my morning report. But I cannot ask him to volunteer to have them ready first thing Sat am. :-)

Posted by: Bill Cara at June 23, 2007 1:02 PM [link]

Bill, the double underlined ads are fine... blue is a nice color - they stand out but are not over-bearing. They pop up quick and more importantly *go away quick* when you move the mouse off of them...
TimG

Posted by: TimG at June 23, 2007 1:51 PM [link]

Ron-

XBD and BKX for certain, plus GOOG and AAPL as the "Favored Sons"as the tells. But something is already different. This was a very dark Friday and the 50dma was not successfully defended. So yes, you would expect EOQ to bring good things for The Players but, if so, what was this latest? A shakeout?

Posted by: MarkM at June 23, 2007 2:33 PM [link]

Bill/anybody:

I am looking again at the BMO Gold stats which Bill posted on June 12 - notably, the comparative operating costs of the producers listed.

about 'costs' - I can't find his comment - but I remember being surprised...something like, perhaps, $600/oz. It was a number markedly higher than these operating costs in the BMO report or similar stats which I have seen originating from RBC.

So, where does such a number come from? What are the additional factors?

Would appreciate elucidation...

regards all

joey

Posted by: joey at June 23, 2007 3:17 PM [link]

2nd_ave - re:BMD

IMO, not everyone makes buy/sell decisions based on future outlook, especially on stocks trading under $5. Most people trade prices, buy on rumor, sell on news.

People who got in last week hoping for a bigger ride is going to sell in a down market.
All I am saying is that If we get another 300 points down on the dow this week(which I expect), BMD could make a trip below 3.

Posted by: JogyP at June 23, 2007 5:28 PM [link]

JogyP-fair enough. If traders take it down next week, I'm going to play a secondary position. Re your outlook for the Dow, still have my original SDS position, and you obviously haven't changed yours...it should be an exciting week, too bad I'm back to work..

Posted by: 2nd_ave at June 23, 2007 6:43 PM [link]

Re: Bear Stearns

Excellent recap from Paul Tustain (posted on 321 gold) on what led up to the problem, and what may happen from here:

http://tinyurl.com/yo4ydv

Posted by: 2nd_ave at June 23, 2007 7:38 PM [link]

Bill/anybody:

I'm checking in for a response to my question posed at 3:17PM; and noting that my question is 'muddled'...

I recall reading Bill's generalization that gold miners can't make money unless POG is greater than -say, $600. I don't remember and can't find the statement; but the number was markedly higher than the operating cost stats.

Help, please. What do I need to know to project profitability?

Regards all.

joey

Posted by: joey at June 23, 2007 7:55 PM [link]

joey,

If you look at the financial statements (check ADVFN.com or other sources) of these mining companies, you will see that after the cash cost of producing the gold, a company has to pay/expend other monies to stay in business. For example, there are: (i) exploration costs, other capex, like property acquisitions, and depreciation, (ii) interest payments on debt, (iii) selling, general and admin costs, and (iv) taxes. So you might see a cash cost of say $350-$375 and an all-in cost of $500-$550 per oz of gold produced. Without that $525-$550 revenue per oz, the best of these producing companies are out of business, or they are having to depend on corporate finance.

Posted by: Bill Cara at June 23, 2007 8:38 PM [link]

Joey,

I can't remember the exact number, but when I read it, the numbers seemed higher than what I would expect. I am reasonably familiar with mine operating costs and how they work and I think that in this case Bill may have been quoting total costs as opposed to cash costs.

Generally mines quote cash cost which is the operating cost of operations. This is the costs that you usually read in the media or in analysts reports.

Total costs are are the total cost to produce an ounce of gold and so also includes other non cash costs such as the depreciation of Capital and exploration costs that have been amortised over the life of the mine.

Note that I have not been too specific here because different companies interpret the accounting rules differently and are then more or less liberal with them. In addition to that different countries also have differing accounting rules. Generally however the countries are aligning more all the time and over the years rules are tightening up to allow less interpretaion.

The difference between between cash and total costs can vary quite a bit depending on the level of capitalisation and mine life. the total cost could be as low as $50 per ounce higher or up to say $150 per ounce higher.

If you look at a greenfields deposit that goes into production, it will usually have a reasonably high total cost because the capital needs to be written off over it's reserve mine life. All other things being equal an existing mine that finds another nearby deposit after several years of production will have a lower total cost because a portion of the capital has already been written off.

Posted by: Aussieontop at June 23, 2007 9:07 PM [link]

Sorry Bill, I went out of the room and hit the post button before checking the blog again. Anyway we are saying the same thing.

Posted by: Aussieontop at June 23, 2007 9:11 PM [link]

Thanks, Bill and Aussie, for taking time to answer me on the first Saturday night of bass season here in Ontario.
I have a great collection of gold miner financials at hand that are daunting when I get past the photographs - much harder for me than the widget financials.

regards

joey

Posted by: joey at June 23, 2007 9:28 PM [link]

joey,

Take a handful of those Goldminer financial reports and go to the bottom line and relate the annual profit (if any) to the annual oz of production. Then compare that to the cash cost figure that management touts. Even on the most superficial basis, I venture to say that 9 out of 10 retail investors would get a shock.

To go from the sublime to the ridiculous, look at the cash cost for Agnico-Eagle's gold, where it is a negative figure because they deduct revenue from all other metal content produced from the total mining cost.

A world-class pure gold producer could have a very high cost of production versus a crappy little operation that is say 33 pct gold by value produced, and yet that stock promoter could hype the market with a negative cost of gold production.

BMO Research (as an example) breaks out the data so that any analysis beyond the simple cash cost comparison makes the winners stand out from the losers in the competition for shareholder investment. It might take you an hour to sift the data, but the answers are there.

Posted by: Bill Cara at June 23, 2007 9:49 PM [link]

yes...listening/reading intently...

do I correctly recall that a cornerstone of Goldcorp's and Yamana's presentations are costs, net of copper credits? we hear and we hear and we hear again about G being the lowest cost producer...wow! can't wait to crack that glossy AR!

an hour to sift the data? Bill, I think your clock is calibrated differently than mine...

thanks again, Bill. I want 'to get it'.

Joey

Posted by: joey at June 23, 2007 10:10 PM [link]

Hi Joey,

well I commend you for all your efforts in making this grande attempt to truly understand the miners financials. From your questions and enthusiasm, I gather that you will be much more knowledgable on the subject/industry after tonight.
I do not so much have the patience, and although I try time after time to enjoy sifting through data and AR's, I am starting to regretfully acknowledge the fact that it just is not for me. I'm more of a macro economic type of guy, reading through a variety of opinions and forming my own based on my assessment of them. I really do enjoy reading all the posts here and I hope you continue to share what you find. Aussieontop, thanks for the explanative post also
Bass season, why not try out Bass Lake, just north of Owen Sound, quite peaceful.
Cheers

Posted by: Eric at June 23, 2007 10:48 PM [link]

Joey,
I'm doing the same thing with an oil company or two, and it's been a great learning experience.

Oil companies use the term 'netback' per barrel. It's basically (WTI price - wellhead price differential - royalty payments to govt - production expenses) That's the net revenue per barrel. That number times the number of barrels produced ought to equal total revenue from production.

Then check the Consolidated Statement of Operations and Retained Earnings. You should see an expenses column with things clearly broken out.

Revenues at the top(in the case of oil, where barrels per day is a key measure, it should equal "netback x days in the reporting period")

Then right below should be Expenses. The company I'm looking at now subtracts, in order:

Production expenses
General/Admin
Stock compensation
Forex loss
Depletion, depreciaton, accretion

And so arrives at Net Income before taxes.

Taxes are then subtracted and viola! Net Income. You can then divide that by ounces and get the real picture of total costs per ounce, as I think others have said.

This is key, and you are smart to zero in on it, because costs are rising for minining companies as salaries are rising, etc.

If there is a Q1 '07 report available, and there should be, try it with that. The numbers are smaller and should more closely reflect current conditions.

I'd also say that if the numbers appear fuzzy or they are trying to present it in an unclear way, that might be a warning sign.

The company I'm looking at is doing very well, and everything appears to be upfront and presented clearly.

In addition to the reports, if there is a "Management's Discussion and Analysis" that's good to read.

Also, if the senior management has given any presentations, download and listen to those. Sometimes they will drop pieces of information not present in official annual reports and such.

I'm presently looking carefuly at the sections of the reports called 'Related Party Transactions' for any improper self-dealing, etc.

In the case of precious metal miners, many of whom seem to llooooovvvee diluting shares right into their pockets, I'd look closely at options, warrants and stock grants, and very closely at the prices they are recording the stock grants at. It should bear some sembalence to the market price of the shares, and should not be excessive. For example, I'm regretfully in GPR and they had two massive stock compensation grants in less than a year! I can see where their priorities lie and I'll probably get rid of them soon.

This is really great stuff, and I suspect doing this will get easier as we get more experience. But it is TOTALLY worth it.

I found both very good exciting news (the oil company I'm reviewing has massive assets not reflected on the balance sheet nor in the share prices) and bad news (very key senior personnel departures mentioned only briefly at the end of the 2007 Corporate Profile.)

I'm glad I know about both of those things and I really feel this amount of work is very revealing and like I have a leg up on most people investing in the shares.

Good luck and don't give up!

Mike
NYC

Posted by: MikeNYC at June 24, 2007 12:09 AM [link]

"net of copper credits?"

Who cares! That sounds like accounting games.

Go right to the bottom line for total revenues and total costs. The shares we buy are shares in the total company, no?

Posted by: MikeNYC at June 24, 2007 12:14 AM [link]

Bill
A suggestion..the tables that you provide with ie
ETF's or Senior Oil and Gas , the 14 tables..is there (an easy) way of linking the individual symbol to the BillCara2 site. So that we could click on an individual symbol and it would immediately take us to a chart. I am no techie so this may be an outrageous suggestion and if so please understand where it came from.

Posted by: mikede at June 24, 2007 6:51 AM [link]

Thanks all.
I got a full stringer from my fishing trip last night...

Archiving your commentary, I've got the printer going now...

Overnight, lots of dreams about long division...

Regards all
Joey

Posted by: joey at June 24, 2007 7:44 AM [link]

mikede,

Yes, I am working on the BillCara2.com website now and will integrate the ticker symbols of the tables (and other places) in the blog to those charts at BillCara2.com, with one click access.

Posted by: Bill Cara at June 24, 2007 9:13 AM [link]

The RSI-7 data screens are now available from David (see end of this report).

Posted by: Bill Cara at June 24, 2007 9:54 AM [link]

SBUX:
I noticed a post in regards to Starbuck's PE history. Although one might trade this stock if it hits a PE support, do the current conditions considering the release of McDonalds premium coffee and others that have entered that space warrant the purchase? Don't those PE supports only work for the "old SBUX" conditions? I don't know if buying this stock will be the reward that it has been in the past. Maybe this is a Cramer call. stk

Posted by: stktrader at June 24, 2007 10:05 AM [link]

Regarding SBUX

The downside volume previous 2 sessions has been convincing. Could be a botom is near. However, all talk of actually buying into this trainwreck are at best, premature.

Chris

Posted by: shark_attack at June 24, 2007 10:17 AM [link]

Triskadecaphobia. Friday's action breaks what Santoli wrote last week was a string of 13 consecutive Friday upcloses.

I've posted my Bore-Ron's Roundtable, and an analysis based on January's projections. Also I've got some Cara100 'losers' projected in a different way using Tom DeMark's 'absolutes' (tm).

Glorious day here in Boston.

Best,

Ron

Posted by: Ron at June 24, 2007 11:21 AM [link]

Bill excellent chart-work and analysis by Greg Weldon here:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Merrill-BSC-GS-LEH-Yields/index/a/13187

Again please see CXZ per my initial post last week :)

Posted by: Rick45 at June 24, 2007 12:51 PM [link]

* granted SBUX 30-40% below fair value, however like the yen to attempt to call a bottom is asking for a shit, shower, and shave. Shakedown may take months....

* Like short plays here like SRS, here comes the plethora of double-inverse short ETF's.

* Crude at $ 70, what a joke. Short now Bill or wait for the storm-hype later this Summer plays like COP already rolling over?

Posted by: Rick45 at June 24, 2007 1:03 PM [link]

Granddad, Did You Believe in Central Banks Once?: Mark Gilbert

By Mark Gilbert

June 21 (Bloomberg) -- ``Granddad Benny, is it true that central bankers used to believe they could steer the global economy with quarter-point twitches in overnight rates?''

Granddad looked up from his GoogleSoft iSpreadsheet, where a flashing red ``health care'' box was blocking 2027's planned expenditure from matching the income cell. ``Yes, Joel. For about a decade we all believed central banks could ensure people had jobs, and could afford food and housing and such. That all changed after the Gigantic Global Bubble Burst of 2008.''

Joel put down his Mandarin dictionary. ``That's what my socio-economics teacher says we'll learn about next week. She called it the Giglobubu. What happened in 2008, Granddad?''

``We're still not sure, Joel,'' Granddad said. ``At the time, some accused the New Zealand central bank, some said it was the bond market, while others blamed the aftershocks of a slump in the U.S. housing market. If she's smart, your teacher will probably spend a lot of time talking about China.''

``Did China cause the Giglobubu, Granddad?''

``It played a big part, Joel. At the start of the century, China started to engage with the global economy. We were able to buy stuff like clothes and televisions really cheaply from China's factories, making everyone feel wealthy enough to spend and borrow instead of putting something aside for a rainy day.

``All of that borrowed money had to come from somewhere, and most of it came from Asia. When China stopped turning up at bond auctions in 2007 and started investing directly in companies instead, alarm bells should have rung. They didn't.

Billions of Spenders

``What everyone failed to realize was that the billions of people in China, Vietnam and other Asian countries didn't want to spend the rest of their lives living in huts in the countryside and working in factories for a pittance. They started to demand and get higher wages and a better standard of living, and went on a spending spree of their own. Their governments, meantime, built roads and hospitals and schools to keep people happy.

``Even though central bankers in the West had been puzzled by low bond yields and wage increases, they still took the credit for slow inflation! So when prices started to surge at the beginning of 2008, they were surprised when raising rates turned out to be powerless in the global economy. They were even more shocked when energy costs soared and they realized China controlled most of the world's power-producing capacity.''

Three Strikes and Out

Joel whispered ``2008 Giglobubu Causes'' into his Apple iWatch, and watched as the holographic multimedia display scrolled into life six inches above his wrist. ``Granddad, it says here that the New Zealand central bank made things worse?''

Granddad rubbed his beard as Joel's watch beamed graphs and charts into the air. ``Well, that's a bit unfair. They were quick to spot that prices were rising, and tried to curb inflation by driving up borrowing costs. Their mistake was trying to stop their currency, the New Zealand dollar, from rising. After the first two attempts failed, they should have given up. When the third attempt went wrong, people panicked because they started to realize how impotent the financial authorities were.''

``Granddad, it also says here that hedge funds and the derivatives market made things worse. What are hedge funds and the derivatives market?''

``Well, they are illegal now, Joel. As the global economy started to crumble under the weight of soaring raw material costs, financial markets melted down, with prices of stocks and bonds whipsawing. Hedge funds were supposed to be clever investors; it turned out that they had all made the same bet on the global economy staying wonderful for ever.

Tangled Webs

``Companies thought they'd borrowed money from their bankers. Instead, hedge funds had bought up all of the IOUs. When companies started struggling to make their debt payments, instead of having a friendly chat with their bank managers, they found themselves eyeball-to-eyeball with the hedge funds' lawyers, who weren't interested in the survival of the companies and just wanted their money back.

``Lots of the banks had sold insurance on those IOUs and on a bunch of other stuff that they bundled together into derivatives called collateralized debt obligations. When those investments started to blow up, we all realized that nobody knew who owed what to whom. And banks and hedge funds had become such a big part of the global economy that they dragged everything else down with them.''

``I've been meaning to ask you, Granddad; what are all those funny little rectangles of green paper in that big frame on the wall next to your desk?''

``They're called dollars,'' Granddad said. ``We used them to buy things in the olden days. In 2015, a group called the Single Global Currency Association convinced the Bank for International Settlements, which by then was running the world's financial systems, that everyone should switch to one type of money.''

``And they didn't choose the dollar, Granddad?''

``No, Joel. There was a global referendum to make the decision on which currency people wanted. Which is why we now use the yuan all around the world. Anyway, it's getting late. Back to your Mandarin homework, young Master Bernanke.''

(Mark Gilbert is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Mark Gilbert in London at magilbert@bloomberg.net

Posted by: Rick45 at June 24, 2007 1:23 PM [link]

Joey,
Keep an eye on "Working Capital Deficit" and if it seems large, compare it to peers.

The oil company I am looking at stated no debts. I flagged the Working Capital Deficit of 10 mil and looked into it.

I downloaded a list of peers from the exchange (TSX) and isolated similar companies in the same size range, 300-400 mil. I then dug into the financial reports to see what the peer set was doing in terms of Working Capital. I found my firm's number was in line with the low end of the range (it ranged from postive numbers to 50 mil deficit.) That made me feel better and that they weren't using "Working Capital Deficit" to hide what would otherwise be seen as 'debt.' I'm more comfortable with this US$10Mil number now, especially when I looked at how aggresively the company was drilling, exploring, etc.

This actually was less work than it sounds.

Regards,

Mike
NYC

Posted by: MikeNYC at June 24, 2007 11:47 PM [link]

June 23, 2007

Bill Cara’s Saturday Report 24-2007, 06/23/2007 6:03 AM

Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

International Economics Review

International Equity Markets Review

US Equity Markets Review

Industry “Impulse” Review

Bonds & Yields Review

Forex Review

Commodities Review

Oil Review

Gold & Precious Metals Review

Precious Metals Stocks Review

The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

Charts of Cara 100 stock ratings changes

The Cara Global 100 RSI-7 Studies

Discourse

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