Bill Cara: Bill Cara’s Saturday Report 23-2007, 06/09/2007 9:15 AM

« Cara’s Daily Commentary, Fri., June 8, 2007, 9:29 AM | Main | Week in Review #23 (2007-06-09) »

June 9, 2007

Bill Cara’s Saturday Report 23-2007, 06/09/2007 9:15 AM

This “Saturday Report” includes (i) Week In Review (WIR) Tables, (ii) end-of-the--week tables and charts (used in the Daily Commentary), (iii) Impulse system report, and (iv) Friday Value Line Dow Report(s). My "Week In Review" will be published Sunday at 12:00pm ET (Noon).

WIR Tables for Week #23 (2007-06-09)

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

SMH 36.72 1.03 2.89% -0.70% 1.80% -2.13% 9.38% 7.90% 7.40% 11.95%

IYZ 34.11 0.55 1.64% -1.24% 1.43% 4.50% 15.00% 13.02% 17.50% 36.39%

XLP 27.51 0.21 0.77% -1.40% 0.59% 1.40% 4.68% 5.24% 5.52% 15.64%

XLE 67.92 0.28 0.41% -1.45% 1.75% 6.54% 20.04% 17.81% 12.69% 27.14%

XLI 38.65 0.59 1.55% -1.60% 0.99% 1.98% 9.71% 9.58% 9.46% 16.70%

XLF 37.20 0.41 1.11% -2.16% -0.85% -0.40% 0.76% 3.97% 2.73% 13.41%

XLB 40.40 0.76 1.92% -2.18% 1.58% 2.67% 16.73% 9.54% 13.64% 30.96%

IYH 70.80 0.50 0.71% -2.40% -1.87% -0.45% 6.53% 6.53% 6.90% 16.26%

XLY 39.36 0.43 1.10% -2.41% -0.43% 0.56% 2.18% 3.09% 2.98% 18.48%

XLU 39.28 0.33 0.85% -5.60% -4.38% -6.48% 6.68% 2.69% 6.83% 21.99%

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

CEO 104.96 2.09 2.03% 8.59% 14.62% 21.23% 11.34% 28.00% 18.41% 44.79%

ECA 62.82 0.59 0.95% 0.72% 4.49% 11.56% 38.55% 32.31% 18.98% 30.90%

SU 87.46 0.70 0.81% -1.35% 2.44% 6.65% 18.33% 23.36% 10.36% 17.87%

PBR 109.54 2.92 2.74% -1.50% 3.32% 10.31% 9.91% 22.67% 11.53% 35.82%

XOM 82.68 0.72 0.88% -1.83% 0.49% 4.14% 11.56% 15.07% 9.51% 38.79%

CVX 80.69 0.49 0.61% -1.87% 0.90% 3.20% 13.70% 17.86% 10.79% 39.46%

TOT 74.44 0.42 0.57% -2.13% -0.68% 0.76% 4.89% 12.57% 4.45% 21.28%

IMO 46.48 0.69 1.51% -2.23% 1.33% 16.96% 30.34% 31.63% 20.73% 34.57%

STO 27.49 0.23 0.84% -2.45% -0.65% -1.01% 7.01% 8.19% 1.07% 1.81%

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

BHP 55.78 1.02 1.86% 3.41% 12.46% 8.39% 43.50% 30.45% 37.29% 41.47%

PKX 124.57 4.36 3.63% 1.61% 10.43% 10.41% 56.83% 25.98% 58.00% 110.60%

TCK 42.84 1.06 2.54% 0.33% 10.73% -48.07% -38.14% -36.45% -43.47% 0.00%

GGB 23.30 0.86 3.83% -2.39% 11.43% 13.99% 41.90% 39.69% 42.42% 70.70%

MT 61.70 1.30 2.15% -2.64% 7.45% 12.16% 51.23% 17.52% 45.35% 102.96%

NUE 66.61 1.81 2.79% -3.81% 4.22% 2.79% 22.22% 5.53% 1.62% 36.22%

AA 39.66 0.73 1.88% -4.34% -1.37% 5.39% 35.22% 22.07% 27.48% 31.89%

RTP 281.64 5.25 1.90% -4.96% 1.13% 0.23% 37.99% 33.18% 30.75% 43.77%

RIO 44.42 1.27 2.94% -5.53% 5.44% 2.33% 54.13% 29.54% 51.81% 108.35%

TS 47.00 0.71 1.53% -5.72% 1.58% 8.05% -3.13% 5.62% 0.90% 35.68%

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

CAT 78.52 1.21 1.57% 0.49% 4.10% 6.38% 28.38% 22.10% 23.85% 17.39%

GE 37.32 0.56 1.52% -0.35% -0.16% 1.47% -1.71% 8.33% 5.81% 7.95%

UTX 70.23 1.36 1.97% -0.78% 2.89% 3.25% 11.81% 8.78% 8.51% 16.45%

BA 98.19 1.35 1.39% -1.64% 0.79% 5.81% 10.12% 10.46% 8.94% 20.94%

FDX 109.40 2.00 1.86% -1.70% 3.29% 2.01% -0.34% -3.69% -5.12% 1.52%

ERJ 47.53 -0.07 -0.15% -1.76% 2.70% 1.13% 16.55% 4.74% 14.61% 39.71%

ABB 21.24 0.34 1.63% -2.30% 1.97% 8.59% 19.19% 25.53% 25.16% 92.04%

HON 57.38 0.98 1.74% -2.41% 2.48% 0.91% 27.23% 21.29% 35.08% 47.51%

MMM 85.94 1.06 1.25% -2.82% -1.39% 1.52% 9.81% 15.32% 9.39% 5.13%

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

TM 124.45 1.32 1.07% 1.23% 3.43% 6.55% -8.02% -7.43% 2.02% 22.62%

WHR 110.83 3.19 2.96% -0.50% -0.31% -0.48% 30.91% 24.78% 29.11% 31.16%

EBAY 31.42 0.81 2.65% -2.63% -3.94% -7.21% 4.14% 1.29% -1.04% 0.64%

DIS 34.20 -0.06 -0.18% -2.95% -4.58% -4.17% 0.00% -1.41% -0.55% 14.50%

CCL 49.00 0.07 0.14% -3.05% -1.15% 1.81% -3.83% 5.95% 3.62% 31.02%

BC 33.70 0.60 1.81% -3.16% -1.26% 1.91% 5.58% 1.41% 3.53% -3.38%

JCP 78.30 0.51 0.66% -4.50% -0.72% 1.95% 0.31% -3.17% 1.78% 20.29%

SBUX 27.67 0.23 0.84% -5.01% -2.26% -6.33% -21.50% -9.87% -24.03% -23.65%

NKE 52.96 -1.14 -2.11% -6.58% -2.77% -0.66% 8.46% 1.26% 9.15% 31.32%

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

WMT 50.08 0.32 0.64% 1.23% 7.35% 4.88% 5.32% 4.59% 8.05% 5.88%

PG 63.07 0.75 1.20% -0.65% 0.32% 2.57% -2.28% 1.22% -1.28% 15.22%

WAG 44.31 0.36 0.82% -1.82% -0.63% -0.36% -3.82% -0.69% 1.56% 5.95%

MO 70.30 0.75 1.08% -2.12% -0.24% 3.32% 8.29% 8.98% 10.43% 31.40%

KO 51.67 0.29 0.56% -2.14% 0.84% -1.54% 6.36% 9.59% 5.64% 19.08%

BUD 52.60 0.27 0.52% -2.61% 2.57% 5.47% 6.87% 5.58% 10.04% 16.66%

PEP 66.61 0.26 0.39% -3.04% -2.69% 0.39% 6.20% 5.65% 5.28% 10.78%

ABV 68.26 2.10 3.17% -3.46% 5.06% 11.66% 39.02% 32.52% 43.61% 72.03%

DEO 82.86 0.10 0.12% -3.67% -2.70% -1.11% 4.19% 8.50% 6.99% 23.21%

WFMI 39.32 0.33 0.85% -5.64% -2.89% -4.45% -13.54% -14.97% -19.56% -39.82%

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

BMET 45.49 -0.07 -0.15% 3.55% 4.29% 5.15% 9.69% 7.87% 14.01% 28.72%

AMGN 57.37 0.73 1.29% 0.76% 5.13% 0.07% -16.13% -7.72% -17.95% -16.14%

GSK 51.57 0.23 0.45% 0.57% -1.94% -8.60% -4.16% -7.30% -1.81% -6.91%

AET 52.25 0.85 1.65% -1.91% 1.26% 5.11% 21.85% 18.64% 23.29% 28.13%

JNJ 62.13 0.13 0.21% -2.02% -2.13% -0.59% -6.43% 0.66% -5.79% 0.93%

NVS 55.09 -0.23 -0.42% -2.18% -1.77% -3.32% -5.25% -2.84% -4.51% 1.81%

UNH 53.67 0.31 0.58% -2.79% -1.00% 1.23% 2.09% 0.64% 7.53% 16.04%

DNA 76.97 2.07 2.76% -3.18% -0.86% -3.26% -5.90% -5.14% -7.70% -2.19%

BMY 29.27 0.10 0.34% -3.97% -2.53% -2.04% 10.96% 7.77% 15.46% 15.92%

PFE 26.52 0.23 0.87% -4.19% -2.79% -1.04% 0.87% 4.37% 5.36% 11.15%

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

MS 87.10 2.37 2.80% 1.20% 3.13% 3.22% 6.71% 15.50% 10.80% 47.68%

HBC 92.53 0.93 1.02% -0.72% 0.01% -0.52% -0.47% 5.05% 2.58% 7.73%

LEH 74.19 0.90 1.23% -1.38% 1.24% -1.12% -5.65% -2.06% -3.69% 12.92%

C 53.33 0.81 1.54% -2.16% -2.91% 0.24% -3.48% 5.60% 2.85% 6.77%

GS 225.06 5.01 2.28% -2.45% -0.27% 0.88% 12.13% 12.56% 9.73% 50.28%

JPM 50.41 0.59 1.18% -2.87% -2.29% -3.06% 4.87% 3.43% 7.81% 19.03%

MER 88.78 1.52 1.74% -4.84% -4.14% -2.46% -5.16% 6.64% -1.97% 26.25%

UBS 61.56 0.49 0.80% -5.35% -2.61% -0.48% 0.28% 4.64% 2.62% 14.53%

DB 143.65 1.40 0.98% -5.70% -6.83% -7.25% 6.14% 10.82% 9.73% 34.15%

CS 72.22 -0.08 -0.11% -5.72% -3.16% -3.49% 3.01% 1.21% 6.85% 0.00%

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

SNDK 44.22 1.30 3.03% 3.95% 5.29% 0.27% 5.99% 11.08% 0.29% -16.49%

INFY 49.72 2.23 4.70% -0.14% 2.39% -2.95% -10.93% -8.06% -9.57% 46.88%

SAP 48.91 1.06 2.22% -0.29% 3.86% 5.55% -8.06% 6.05% -4.81% -1.55%

CSCO 26.48 0.63 2.44% -1.41% 4.25% 0.72% -4.54% 1.26% -1.85% 33.13%

ADSK 44.18 0.51 1.17% -1.60% -1.25% 4.35% 8.93% 14.66% 5.14% 28.43%

QCOM 41.87 0.85 2.07% -2.10% -3.95% -4.65% 11.77% 4.10% 5.89% -5.80%

INTC 21.83 0.52 2.44% -2.37% -0.64% -1.71% 7.27% 13.52% 5.56% 27.59%

ORCL 19.06 0.33 1.76% -3.05% 1.65% 3.08% 8.85% 14.20% 7.08% 40.87%

ADBE 43.04 0.32 0.75% -3.35% 2.50% 5.85% 7.82% 10.13% 10.64% 54.54%

CTSH 75.47 0.52 0.69% -3.38% 0.71% -5.76% -2.94% -17.08% -6.50% 23.20%

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Month 4.64 4.66 4.66 4.71

6 Month 4.72 4.75 4.75 4.78

2 Year 4.93 4.97 4.86 4.65

3 Year 4.91 4.95 4.82 4.58

5 Year 4.91 4.95 4.80 4.52

10 Year 4.95 4.97 4.85 4.61

30 Year 5.06 5.06 4.98 4.76

Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 3.73 3.74 3.66 3.63

2yr AAA 3.65 3.66 3.63 3.56

2yr A 3.68 3.68 3.67 3.61

5yr AAA 3.77 3.75 3.70 3.58

5yr AA 3.80 3.78 3.72 3.60

5yr A 3.79 3.78 3.74 3.71

10yr AAA 3.93 3.90 3.84 3.71

10yr AA 3.98 3.94 3.83 3.71

10yr A 4.20 4.17 4.11 3.99

20yr AAA 4.56 4.53 4.42 4.39

20yr AA 4.50 4.47 4.31 4.57

20yr A 4.58 4.45 4.30 4.29

Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 5.30 5.34 5.23 5.01

2yr A 5.36 5.39 5.31 5.09

5yr AAA 5.42 5.45 5.33 5.03

5yr AA 5.51 5.54 5.37 5.09

5yr A 5.56 5.58 5.43 5.13

10yr AAA 5.71 5.72 5.67 5.35

10yr AA 5.71 5.72 5.59 5.34

10yr A 5.77 5.78 5.68 5.47

20yr AAA 6.03 6.03 5.95 5.74

20yr AA 6.00 5.98 5.93 5.71

20yr A 6.17 6.17 6.09 5.88

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

SHY 79.73 0.02 0.03% -0.01% -0.45% -0.54% -0.39% -0.76% -0.55% 0.05%

FNM 64.35 0.91 1.43% -0.03% -0.62% 3.69% 7.50% 15.95% 7.99% 29.09%

TIP 98.15 0.18 0.18% -0.71% -1.50% -2.51% -1.09% -2.74% -2.45% -1.18%

AGG 97.71 -0.12 -0.12% -0.93% -1.71% -2.40% -2.20% -2.79% -2.80% -0.53%

IEF 80.30 0.00 0.00% -1.01% -2.09% -3.24% -2.88% -4.00% -3.58% -0.62%

CFC 38.31 0.31 0.82% -1.52% -4.22% -4.11% -9.02% 4.73% -3.89% 3.35%

TLT 83.99 0.11 0.13% -1.87% -2.98% -5.10% -5.70% -7.04% -6.93% -1.50%

FRE 64.63 -0.78 -1.19% -3.67% -2.64% -2.64% -4.80% 3.74% -5.75% 11.32%

Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

LIHRY 40.75 0.34 0.84% 0.02% -10.54% -7.20% 23.37% 0.00% 0.00% 2.77%

BVN 33.65 0.50 1.51% -2.18% 5.42% -2.80% 21.88% 23.44% 19.41% 25.51%

GG 23.92 0.14 0.59% -2.65% 6.36% 0.21% -12.51% -3.74% -18.14% -9.01%

ABX 28.32 0.15 0.53% -3.77% -2.34% -5.25% -5.06% 1.22% -5.94% 0.53%

NEM 39.90 0.06 0.15% -4.11% 1.14% -1.92% -9.73% -6.69% -14.94% -19.83%

MDG 25.25 0.15 0.60% -5.40% 2.19% 0.40% -3.96% -0.59% -14.49% -12.33%

AEM 35.61 -0.06 -0.17% -5.99% 5.04% 1.57% -8.50% -2.81% -14.44% 25.08%

KGC 12.81 -0.03 -0.23% -6.15% 0.23% -2.36% 12.17% -2.36% 4.15% 28.74%

AUY 13.05 0.01 0.08% -6.92% 2.35% -4.74% 5.84% -5.50% 1.95% 44.84%

GFI 16.07 0.08 0.50% -8.12% -6.84% -6.68% -12.33% -6.08% -10.92% -12.95%

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

FXI 115.70 3.09 2.74% 1.03% 5.20% 6.15% -0.60% 17.34% 19.46% 62.73%

EWJ 14.67 0.08 0.55% -0.07% 2.37% 1.66% 3.31% -0.07% 4.49% 13.63%

QQQQ 46.91 0.57 1.23% -1.12% 1.62% 1.56% 8.49% 9.17% 6.86% 22.16%

SPY 151.04 1.94 1.30% -1.97% -0.07% 0.98% 6.84% 7.32% 6.80% 20.11%

EWU 25.02 0.37 1.50% -2.30% -0.52% 0.89% 6.24% 8.12% 4.55% 24.79%

EWC 29.65 0.32 1.09% -2.66% 0.68% 4.40% 20.04% 17.33% 14.21% 29.14%

IEV 114.80 1.66 1.47% -3.08% -0.69% 0.90% 8.71% 10.35% 9.82% 31.83%

IFN 41.80 1.09 2.68% -3.46% 1.04% 5.48% -7.81% 6.33% -12.28% -1.99%

TRF 63.98 0.72 1.14% -3.72% -2.41% -5.13% -27.75% -6.90% -19.18% 1.88%

EWZ 58.20 1.99 3.54% -4.90% 3.71% 6.77% 24.63% 26.94% 26.25% 63.39%

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

GM 31.00 1.32 4.45% 1.64% 1.74% 6.93% 5.26% -0.19% 4.80% 24.85%

WMT 50.08 0.32 0.64% 1.23% 7.35% 4.88% 5.32% 4.59% 8.05% 5.88%

MCD 51.41 1.20 2.39% 0.90% 0.88% 2.82% 17.19% 17.80% 17.48% 52.60%

CAT 78.52 1.21 1.57% 0.49% 4.10% 6.38% 28.38% 22.10% 23.85% 17.39%

VZ 43.07 0.48 1.13% 0.14% 1.25% 5.62% 13.88% 18.06% 21.98% 36.04%

HPQ 45.78 0.37 0.81% -0.07% 0.84% 2.48% 10.00% 13.68% 15.49% 52.30%

GE 37.32 0.56 1.52% -0.35% -0.16% 1.47% -1.71% 8.33% 5.81% 7.95%

PG 63.07 0.75 1.20% -0.65% 0.32% 2.57% -2.28% 1.22% -1.28% 15.22%

T 40.26 0.74 1.87% -0.67% -0.40% 3.47% 15.19% 10.27% 15.13% 51.47%

UTX 70.23 1.36 1.97% -0.78% 2.89% 3.25% 11.81% 8.78% 8.51% 16.45%

AIG 71.53 0.15 0.21% -1.54% -0.01% -0.93% -0.86% 3.13% 1.68% 18.33%

BA 98.19 1.35 1.39% -1.64% 0.79% 5.81% 10.12% 10.46% 8.94% 20.94%

MSFT 30.05 0.43 1.45% -1.77% -0.40% -1.73% 0.64% 9.91% 2.21% 35.91%

XOM 82.68 0.72 0.88% -1.83% 0.49% 4.14% 11.56% 15.07% 9.51% 38.79%

JNJ 62.13 0.13 0.21% -2.02% -2.13% -0.59% -6.43% 0.66% -5.79% 0.93%

MO 70.30 0.75 1.08% -2.12% -0.24% 3.32% 8.29% 8.98% 10.43% 31.40%

KO 51.67 0.29 0.56% -2.14% 0.84% -1.54% 6.36% 9.59% 5.64% 19.08%

C 53.33 0.81 1.54% -2.16% -2.91% 0.24% -3.48% 5.60% 2.85% 6.77%

INTC 21.83 0.52 2.44% -2.37% -0.64% -1.71% 7.27% 13.52% 5.56% 27.59%

HON 57.38 0.98 1.74% -2.41% 2.48% 0.91% 27.23% 21.29% 35.08% 47.51%

MMM 85.94 1.06 1.25% -2.82% -1.39% 1.52% 9.81% 15.32% 9.39% 5.13%

JPM 50.41 0.59 1.18% -2.87% -2.29% -3.06% 4.87% 3.43% 7.81% 19.03%

DIS 34.20 -0.06 -0.18% -2.95% -4.58% -4.17% 0.00% -1.41% -0.55% 14.50%

AXP 63.04 0.30 0.48% -3.12% -1.53% 0.46% 4.44% 10.95% 5.37% 18.07%

HD 37.95 0.29 0.77% -3.21% -2.57% -2.17% -7.60% -2.19% -2.19% 1.88%

IBM 103.07 1.27 1.25% -3.26% -0.85% -1.54% 5.96% 10.83% 9.81% 33.81%

DD 51.13 0.76 1.51% -3.71% -0.41% 1.03% 4.26% 0.61% 9.02% 25.04%

MRK 50.14 -0.20 -0.40% -3.84% -6.72% -1.84% 13.90% 13.03% 14.14% 47.60%

PFE 26.52 0.23 0.87% -4.19% -2.79% -1.04% 0.87% 4.37% 5.36% 11.15%

AA 39.66 0.73 1.88% -4.34% -1.37% 5.39% 35.22% 22.07% 27.48% 31.89%

Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]

(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 8: next one is due Sep. 7)
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)

Chart analysis of MCD:

A Sell alert was issued for short-term traders at the end of the 3rd week of May after the Daily RSI-7 dropped below 70, following a long period where M-W-D RSI-7 > 70. The Weekly RSI-7 is now at 73.4 and may also drop below 70 in the next month, giving an intermediate-term Sell. As the Monthly RSI-7 is at 91.9, MCD is well over-bought and vulnerable to a substantial sell-off that long-term oriented traders ought to recognize.

International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar for next week.

Econoday Weekly International Report.

Econoday report on the US International Trade Balance.

Econoday report on June 7 policy announcement of the Bank of England.

Econoday report on June 6 policy announcement by the European Central Bank.

Econoday report on June 5 on the US Non-Manufacturing ISM Survey.

Econoday report on June 5 on the April US Factory Orders.

International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Paciic stock exchanges.

Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

Here is the latest chart for the UK FTSE 100 index.

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Charts of US stock ratings changes

Wall Street upgrades

Wall Street recent downgrades

There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website updates in the morning.

Industry “Impulse” Review

The weekly "impulse" looks at inertia through the EMA, and at momentum through MACD (the rate of change in EMA's).

This 10-week table that depicts stock price inertia/momentum of 31 industries has been created by “Jock”, based on the “Impulse System” that is described in Dr Alexander Elder's book Come into My Trading Room. That one, and Dr Elder’s Entries & Exits, sits on my bookshelf.

With the “Impulse System”, Industries are colored GREEN when both weekly MACD-H and 26-week EMA have ticked up; they are RED when both MACD-H and 26-week EMA have ticked down.

Jock’s Note: “Dramatic changes this week: from net 29 industries green to net 1 green !!! – Most of the changes were to from green to neutral, involving a downtick in MACD-H. Inertia (the EMA) is harder to move than momentum (MACD-H).”

Cara 100 Impulse System Report

NOTE: for this exercise, Jock changed the EMA from 26 weeks to 13 weeks, for two reasons. First, Alex Elder opined the 13-week study would be more sensitive in showing changes.

With the 10-week table for the Industry Report, Jock decided to use a 26-week analysis for continuity purposes.

For the stocks of the Cara 100 companies, a score of 2 means that both 13-week EMA and MACD-H ticked up; a score of -2 means they both ticked down). To save space, only the upticks/downticks are shown.

First, the greens:

Jock’s Note: “TCK didn’t have enough history in this database of US-listed stocks to have a result computed; however, by visual inspection, it is green. Therefore, TCK has been added to the green count.
With some tech support, I was able to mechanize the computation. Applying the formula to some individual indices, it is possible to get some perspective on the Cara 100’s performance – relatively very strong!

The (largest cap) Dow indices fared worst this week. Going down the capitalization “food chain”, the S&P500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 each did progressively better – although none as well as the Cara 100!

Dow Industrials: 4 green (UTX, PG, WMT, HPQ) 6 red (C, JNJ, HD, PFE, DIS, JPM)
Dow Utilities: 0 green, 12 red
Dow Transports: 2 green (FEX, UPS) 5 red
Dow 65 (industrials, utilities & transports) 6 green, 23 red.

S&P 500 99 green, 160 red
NDX 27 green, 35 red
RUT 495 green, 625 red

ONLY the Cara 100 had more greens than reds ! Maybe quality DOES mean something as the market is tested.

Bonds & Yields Review

Here is the T-Bond chart.

Forex Review

Here is the $USD chart at the close of the prior session.

Commodities Review

Here is the $CRB Index chart.

Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY July-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review

Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.

Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.

Here is the Recent Spot Platinum chart.

Here is the Recent Spot Palladium chart.

Precious Metals Stocks Review

Here are the Daily and Weekly Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Daily and Weekly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

ABX NEM GG GFI KGC AU HMY AUY BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

This data is supplied every day by the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc.

The Cara 100 list was changed on Friday to add Genentech (DNA) and remove Autodesk (ADSK).

With respect to the Cara 100 change: I plead “Nolo Contendre, ie, I will not defend it.” I will say I made this move on account of the company’s apparent values regarding executive compensation and options dating, which differ from my personal values. I did the same recently for Research In Motion (RIMM/RIM). That is not to say there is anything right or wrong with these companies or their financial metrics. Like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Brookfield (BAM), the management of these companies can take their road; I’ll take mine.

Here are the Friday session’s Cara 100 gainers

Interactive chart of the top Watch List gainers

Here are the Friday session’s Cara 100 losers

Interactive chart of the top Watch List losers (Interactive link)

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the Friday session

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that had extreme volume changes in Friday’s session. This is a good list to watch anytime markets start trending in the extreme. It pays to watch the price and volume extremes. That btw is called Money Flow.

The Cara Global 100 RSI-7 Studies

Using data from “Chris” – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which he takes from Worden, the Cara 100 Company stocks that are below 30 on the Daily RSI-7 are as follows:

RSI > 70 (4)
RSI < 30 (12)

RSI-7 > 70

RSI-7 < 30

Here, from “David” (as and when available), are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest and lowest Daily RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for the previous session. “David” is away on seminars this week. We may not receive his RSI tables.

Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with highest RSI-7 with Monthly-Weekly-Daily all either >70 or <30

Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with RSI-7 Daily all >70 or all <30

Have a great day. Please feel free to comment below.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 9, 2007 09:15:13 AM | Category: Saturday Report

Discourse

Hello Bill,
I understand that WGI/WGDF has finished the assembly of their new shovel. Some of the haul trucks have arrived at Mesquite. Prestripping and leach pad construction is either underway or will be imminently.

In addition a NR is forthcoming outlining some of the details including hedging regarding the loan facility with Investec.

It will be interesting to see how WGI/WGDF applies the estimated $63 million they will have over and above their pre-production and contingency costs to pour gold in early 2008.

Nearby accretive acquisition would be nice.

Tom

Posted by: golden7 at June 9, 2007 12:33 PM [link]

A long and detailed report about the gold market, with information about supply and expectations, released by Blanchard Economic Research Unit
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=22005&sn=Detail
To sum up: sound fundamentals for gold.
I add: do not expect to get that rich too soon...

Posted by: Lelik at June 9, 2007 1:07 PM [link]

I ran across this clip (see link below for complete article) which brings to mind a couple of possibilities of which I wasn't previously aware:

1. It is possible to buy a fund of "Class A" China shares (those which are limited only to homeland Chinese and select others). The fund is CAF - MorganStanley China A Fund.
2. It might also be possilbly desirable to short the fund (and thus the Class A China stocks) because it is a CEF and because it has both a desirable volume level plus the necessary volatility.

Of course, I am NOT saying that now is the time to do either of the above actions. Here's the clip from "Fool" and link:

" You might be shocked to see the preponderance of China funds here [discount to NAV], in light of the country's monster stock returns. Indeed, Morgan Stanley's fund sports a year-to-date NAV gain of 71.7%. Who wouldn't want a piece of that action? Well, the skeptics are out in full force, and it appears that they are using this rare access to the exclusive A shares -- available to mainlanders and select qualified institutions -- to short China. That's right: You can short a closed-end fund. So the contrarians have opened up a chasm between the market price and the value of these funds -- if, that is, you believe the market valuations of the portfolio companies are fair. China reportedly sports a market P/E of about 50, so I'm less than eager to scoop up these "discounted" funds ..."
http://tinyurl.com/2rojvb

Posted by: spot at June 9, 2007 1:48 PM [link]

Gold/Oil

Last week's decline was a "welcome" development in that I started the week uneasy with the high sentiment reading among gold timing newsletters reported by Hulbert's June 5. I have no idea if the sell off caused sentiment to drop or by how much, but it moves things in the right direction.

In asking myself why my instincts tell me gold and oil prices are going higher, I came up with the following (and thanks ahead of time to anyone with more financial savvy who can poke holes in my reasoning):

(1) There are more dollars being floated than gold/oil being mined/produced. Other than hearing there's excess liquidity, how do I know? It's pretty simple-I know this is the case from things I see and hear every day. Home prices are up 4-6 fold over the last 10 years. This is partly because people who really can't afford homes are being told they can and given the means to do it. People who really can't afford that new Lexus think nothing of borrowing against their homes to make 800/month car payments!

(2) The trade deficit. When people go out of their way to tell you not to worry to about it, then you know there's a problem. The yuan/yen:USD ratio needs to strengthen. I see two US sectors (farming and manufacturing) and one global sector (commodities priced in USD) benefiting with a decline in the dollar.

(3) The US economy is going down. I think people will be forced to spend less and save more. The spending has been fueled either by debt or by unreal gains in home prices, and the excesses in the real estate and financial markets need to be worked off. I can't come up with any good reasons to invest in US equities right now.

Can't quite get my hands around how the scenario will play out. I think a decline in the USD will correct the trade deficit and eventually stimulate the US economy (via farming and manufacturing exports), but I also believe interest rates need to increase to force a reduction in consumer spending and retirement of debt. A decline in the USD will undoubtedly lead to higher gold/oil prices-less clear is the impact of interest rates. Market corrections in the past have been correlated with higher gold prices, but as we all know, correlation is not causation, and other than the "safety" factor in gold, I'm not convinced that the next correction will necessarily mean a spike in gold.

Anyone else have an opinion?

Posted by: 2nd_ave at June 9, 2007 2:09 PM [link]

Dear 2nd Ave,

First of all, I would bet that my own "financial savvy" does not exceed your own. However, your post did get me thinking.

There is nothing inevitable about gold and oil going up based merely on the creation of more fiat currency, for example, Oil could be replaced by alternatives and gold's desirability as an inflation-keeper-upper never bested investing in whatever the latest "bubble" was, historically, be it real estate or stocks or commodities, including gold. Home prices rose due to very particular circumstances surrounding housing (unconscienable length of term, insane dollar amounts financed, artificial rates, etc).
People may spend less, but how that equals saving more I don't understand.
The conclusion that U.S. equities are not worth investing in follows from evidence which I don't think adds up. Stocks could do anything now that Goldman runs the show. I am really suspicious about Friday's rise and I wonder how much taxpayer money the plunge protection team threw into stocks on friday.
I think gold's potential as a "currency" is extremely limited due to it's rarity and the fact that so much of it just sits in vaults. It also doesn't really do much, so it's value is purely an "agreed upon" value that needn't in theory exist. We could all just as easily say that it's tulip bulbs that are the real repository of value. Just a few contrary thoughts from a cantankerous S.O.B.

Chris

Posted by: shark_attack at June 9, 2007 5:23 PM [link]

As long as we're brainstorming: Assuming that the price of gold is going up to the $1,000s, why isn't private equity going after the biggest gold producers? Better yet, why isn't China using a little of their $trillions surplus to buy the largest gold producers? A hundred billion would buy all of the top ten gold companies I think.

Posted by: Fred at June 9, 2007 7:13 PM [link]

.
Does anyone know any site , where we can compare to securities using the ISIN number?

Thanks in advance

:-\

Posted by: Bullion at June 9, 2007 7:19 PM [link]

We are 'wired' to extrapolate ongoing trends and 'disavow' fat tails. The euphemism this weekend seems to be the market 'discounting' higher rates (which definition of discounting becomes a legitimate question).

P/E ratios aren't normalized to the peak earnings, and this time it's not daytraders and the general public feeding the frenzy, it's the hedge funds that are in control...and 'career risk' means risk to those not involved.

To me, the most important charts are the ten-year yield AND the 20 and 40 month averages of the VIX, that sugggest a longer-term volatility expansion.

Jeff Saut's has terrific commentary (when the site works) www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

Posted by: Ron at June 9, 2007 7:50 PM [link]

Iraq army surrounds oil workers.
No mention in the news of all this.

Iraq oil strike on hold, troops remain

WASHINGTON, June 8 (UPI) -- With an arrest warrant looming, an Iraqi union leader warned during a U.S. visit failed negotiations will escalate the standoff in Basra's oil sector.

Faleh Abood Umara, general secretary of the Iraq Federation of Oil Unions, said a five-day cooling off/negotiation period, which began Wednesday, is crucial to keep Iraq's oil sector pumping and 1.6 million barrels per day flowing to the global oil market.

IFOU, an umbrella group representing more than 26,000 workers, has threatened to strike since early May over the draft oil law and other working conditions.

It postponed the strike twice after meeting with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki May 16. IFOU says Maliki agreed to their demands, which included union entry to negotiations over the oil law.

Citing a lack of response from Maliki, and sparked by the Iraq Pipeline Company's halt of regular bonus payments, the Iraq Pipelines Union began the strike Monday, shutting off oil products from Baghdad and the southern regions.

The situation in Basra, Iraq's main port city and oil export hub, escalated Tuesday as Iraqi armed forces surrounded striking workers and Maliki issued arrest warrants for union leaders.

"I am one of them," said Umara, waiting to talk to Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, in his office. "Luckily I was out of the country." Warrants were issued for 10 union leaders, he added.

While the strike is on hold until Monday, Naftana, a British solidarity group, reports union officials in Basra say troops are still surrounding workers in Sheiba, in Basra province, and the warrants are still active.

U.S. Labor Against the War, a large, anti-war faction of U.S. unions, reports a Iraqi general tasked with arresting protesters refused, threatening to resign and join the striking workers.

Umara said if no deal is reached, the warrants will likely be executed and the strike back on.

"Not just the oil unions are going to strike throughout the country," he said, "but all the other unions will be striking as well, in solidarity."

Umara and Hashmeya Muhsin Hussein, president of the Electrical Utility Workers Union, are touring the United States this month.

Ben Lando, UPI Energy Correspondent

Posted by: Stokbot at June 9, 2007 10:37 PM [link]

Hi Guys,
Gold sits in vaults exactly because it IS currency. If they didn't have one standard, how would central bankers move real wealth, paper?
They use gold because beads, pelts and pretty rocks went out of style for something really rare, so it can't be easily produced, printed, mined, etc. IOW, it's easily controlled, making it the ideal real base currency. Amongst central bankers and countries anyway. Until they all repeal gold and all their citizens agree, we're pretty safe. I am not holding my breath waiting for my local jewelry store and coin dealer to have the grand give away. As long as countries stockpile gold in vaults and exchange, swap, sell and trade gold it will remain the base real hard asset.

The rest of this all falls to supply and demand.

1. Supply of gold, which is down on a production basis makes it valuable as a commodity and a currency. If someone were to discover an s'load of gold we'd be in a load O'pain.
That there are miners and banks and private capital investing in mining confirms golds value as well. My bet is Central American countries with mines care about maintaining the value of their resources. That there are many others there trying to discover, mine and otherwise control these resources puts us in good stead.

2. 2nd is right including oil. It could be any hard asset/commodity these days. This is being driven by international demand and limited supply of all commodities, gold just happens to be one of the rarest and most valued. Gold is easier to carry and transfer than oil or timber that's all.

3. Gold is priced in USD, so if the USD is in greater supply or less in demand due to loss of value, then it takes more of them to buy the same ounce of gold. We want this to happen so we can ride the dollar down and gold up, then switch out of gold and into dollars at or near the bottom.
Either the dollar will bottom and we'll buy in or there will be a depression, USD worthless and we'll need gold to pay for stuff in the States.

4. The TYT will only make waves in the downward USD trend as it can only delay the inevitable.
Thus we will see the bull/bear/up/down sequence Bill opined earlier. If the bond kills the US market then the fed will have to cut rates and gold will do it's thing as the USD falls faster.

If on the other hand we see massive reduction of government debt, the immediate end of the Iraq war, restructuring/cuts in Social Security, Medicare, Ethanol subsidies, etc. etc. then we should run for the PM exits, but who in their right mind is thinking the government has the will to actually stick us with the tax bill we REALLY owe? No way. They still excel at slight of hand.lies about "tax cuts" which is code for "pay off". They would rather print more paper and kick the debt can down the road by hedging the futures of our children and grandchildren and trying to pay that debt with beads or wooden nickles, which is what the USD will resemble.

5. USD VS emerging currencies. Ever been maxed out on credit cards and stuck servicing ONLY debt?
I hope not, but let me clue you in, it ain't any better for countries than it is for individuals, EXCEPT individuals that try the printing press option will soon have the Secret Service parachuting through their living room ceiling.
So America will see more Katrina type failures much like a maxed out consumer would should his car engine blow up and experience the same loss of opportunity and growth.

When a country is a debter it simply prints more money by borrowing the savings of other countries, which does the same thing over time it does to individuals, it affects their bond rating or FICO score for individuals, and rates go up for these entities to borrow money because of RISK which then affects supply of credit for that risk level. Those rates, as we saw in the 70's don't change the supply of money in the system, just as we have now. AAMOF, the fed will print even more and rates will go higher and higher.

Contrast this with those competing for those resources with their own savings and EARNINGS giving them a current 5.25% advantage over a debtor like us. We can't have that, we'll need more money to buy resources or perish......or we'll use our military and arrange "possession" and print more unseen money to fund that. Either way keep the printers warmed up and stay out of the way, we're borrowing and printing.

So longer term I see polyester, internationally driven external commodity and currency inflation, ethanol driven domestic food and fuel inflation, increasing US debt, money supply, Helter Skelter, Revolution Number 9, the Hunt brothers and ultimately disco.

Welcome to the 70's.

Posted by: Craig at June 9, 2007 11:05 PM [link]

Fred,

We don't know that the Chinese aren't interested in buying any gold producers. I think Bill mentioned them as a potential bidder for KRY or GRZ. They might also prefer owning the bullion. When the CB sells gold, I've always wondered who they're selling to-and who's making the smarter trade? Hedge funds buy a lot of commodities. I think it was Julian Robertson's Tiger Fund that ended up owning the equivalent of a year's production of palladium in the 90s after researching the use of the metal in automobiles (catalytic converters) and cell phones. They made a lot of money. Speaking of Robertson, that guy had conviction about his trades. He shorted copper around 1.10 (I think sometime in the 80s) when a big increase in prices didn't add up. The trade initially went against him (up to 1.25) and squeezed out a few other hedgies, but after checking and rechecking his assumptions, he ended up increasing his short position to $1b, and lo and behold, Sumitomo eventually owned up to trying to manipulate the copper market, and prices dropped 30% to 0.87. Robertson ended up with a 300m profit. So if you believe that gold prices are being artificially held down for political reasons, hold tight...it's not over till it's over...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at June 10, 2007 12:56 AM [link]

Good news for coffee drinkers:

http://tinyurl.com/38lw6c

Posted by: 2nd_ave at June 10, 2007 1:03 AM [link]

Chris,

I would say at this point that I don't care which way the broad market goes, as I've given up trying to time it. Gold and oil, on the other hand, have become value plays. The Chinese and Indian economies are going at full speed, and you don't want to under-estimate the popular demand in those cultures for gold. We in the US just aren't into gold the way they are. As for oil, show me a viable alternative that's working and I'll change my outlook. China's need for oil is now, and day-to-day operations are not going to be fueled by expensive and distant plans for nuclear/electric/solar power. I really believe that after a century of oppression and repression, China wants to reassert itself as a dominant world power, and ownership/control of natural resources is part of that plan. Maybe a couple of hundred years from now we'll look back and see gold/oil as the tulip bulbs of the the 21st century...if that's the case, then I hope to ride that bubble for all it's worth...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at June 10, 2007 1:33 AM [link]

..if the next 10 years plays out financially like the 70s, I don't even care if disco comes back...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at June 10, 2007 1:36 AM [link]

Thanks 2nd, I'm glad I'm not feeling guilty about coffee and that it apparently won't kill me.

Put up the longest chart you want of any large oil company. I once ran one for 20 years just for the hell of it. They all go steadily from lower left to upper right, inexorably, *before* China started this expansion. China and the emerging markets just confirm more strength in the trend. We have to stick with the trend right? From the chart I'm thinking the next ten years will be like the last twenty.

Posted by: Craig at June 10, 2007 2:45 AM [link]

from an article from Mineweb.Goldfields looks cheap

GLOBAL FIRST TIER GOLD PRODUCERS
Reserves Mk cap Market
Moz $bn $/oz
Goldcorp 37 17.7 477
Harmony 56 5.9 105
Lihir 24 5.1 215
AngloGold Ashanti 59 12.0 205
Barrick 123 25.1 204
Newcrest 32 6.6 208
Gold Fields 94 8.4 90
Kinross 45 8.0 176
Newmont 94 18.6 199

Posted by: mikede at June 10, 2007 8:23 AM [link]

Guys,

That's all good stuff, I just think maybe we should take a look at the possibility that the pace of growth of the global economy may slow after years of robust growth. I know this notion is "unthinkable" in economists and politicians circles, which is why it deserves a look. You do convince me that at the very least, one should not be in dollar-denominated deposits, but I think some mixture ideally of foreign currencies, gold, real estate and resources would be right (God, I want to be really rich so I can buy all that stuff)...Chris

Posted by: shark_attack at June 10, 2007 10:33 AM [link]

I'm toast!
On Friday I bought a day trade with an hour and a half left in the market. Long 1K shares USO at 49.15. I was looking for a short covering bounce into the close. Placed a trigger stop at 48.99. We had a problem on the job and I got side tracted. I realized it was 7 minutes after the close. I have a laptop with wireless internet in my truck. USO closed off at 49.06 and my trigger did not get realized. Monday I will have to close out at the opening prices with the market most likely gapping down. The lessons learned! stk

Posted by: stktrader at June 10, 2007 12:04 PM [link]