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May 27, 2007
Week in Review #21 (2007-05-26)
These are busy days for the Humungous Bank & Broker crowd in the market as well as for 'retired' old me. There is clearly a different technical landscape unfolding here, but I am not yet convinced the Bulls have lost control. Soon maybe, but not quite yet.
Amidst all the talk of M&A, share buy-backs, higher dividends, and so forth, the leading story, in my eyes, is the rise in bond yields and the corresponding rally in dividend yields that comes from falling prices of (i) bonds, and (ii) the high dividend paying utility stocks.
The Dow Utility stocks, with one notable exception were slaughtered this week. What that story tells me is that nervous equity strategists are going to move their capital out of the big dividend payers and into the relative safety of high-yielding foreign bonds (like in Europe) and high cash flow energy and metals companies, for now.
But, having reached a juncture here, does anybody really know what road to take? A bump in the inflation-protected TIPS at the end of this week might be a tell.
The one thing that is really going unnoticed is that the venture markets are flying high. The promoters are "getting theirs". They have never had things so good. Reminds me of the Summer of '87, and we all know what followed in mid-October.
This time though, the world has Henry Paulson. I'd like to be a fly on the wall at his place. Since Henry, or Hank if you will, stepped into the Treasury seat, US bonds and dollars have suffered, but equities have been on a rip.
Fund managers who just held the broad market eqity indexes and kept their fingers off the Buy and Sell buttons have had wonderful year. Small cap stockpickers too.
We're all left wondering how long Hank can keep rolling the ball uphill?
Global Market Summary
International Equities: The international markets were mostly up this week, Canada and the UK being exceptions.
U.S. Equities : The broad US market, despite a strong Friday, started showing signs that money flow may be headed back to other markets. It hasn’t shown up in the $USD yet, but US bonds were weak.
Dow 30 : The DJIA dropped -50 points (-0.37 pct) to 13,507. Lots of debt being run up for buying back shares and issuing higher than normal dividend increases. Same old, same old, but I expect the broad market to sidetrack through the Summer.
U.S. Sector ETFs: Seven of 10 US sector ETF’s were down this week. All ten were up on Friday, but only Telcos, Industrials, and Healthcare ended up. With Telco’s it was mostly M&A talk. The Dow Utilities got hammered, with only WMB trying to hold the fort.
First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #4 (-0.1 pct); Big day Fri; but, $WTIC -2.4 pct hurt
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #5 (-0.1 pct); Big day Friday; but, PMs hurt
20: Industrials (XLI): #2 (+0.7 pct); BA & GE were strong; FDX was not
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #6 (-0.2 pct); Tickee from where?
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #7 (-0.5 pct); ABV down; WFMI up
35: Healthcare (IYH): #3 (+0.2 pct); Glasko took a hit of -9.2 pct
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #8 (-0.7 pct); DB, MER and GS all hurting
45: Tech (SMH chips): #9 (-2.4 pct); Second bad week; SNDK, QCOM, CTSH down
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #1 (+1.4 pct); T & VZ were hurt though
55: Utilities (XLU): #10 (-4.0 pct); Ugly; only WMB stopped a bloodbath
Bonds: The US Bond market had another bad week. Yields up +3 to +6 bp, which was not like the horror show (+11 bp to +15 bp lift) of a week ago, but troublesome nonetheless.
Commodities: $CRB was losing all week, until Friday’s gain of +1.2 pct, closing the week flat. All the markets from forex to bonds to PMs seem to be at a cross-roads here. If there is going to be a rally in equities and commodities, I think the $USD and rates have to weaken some here.
Oil & Gas: Crude oil dropped -1.60/bbl this week, which doused the fire of the previous week. The $WTIC lost -2.4 pct to 64.38.
Gold: A week ago I wrote, “Metals and precious metals got hammered again this week, but not to worry; help is on the way. On Friday, the cavalry started to climb the hill. This is no Light Brigade.” More like a powder puff. Copper and Platinum especially were hammered. I think a lot of this has to do with positions on the London Metals Exchange, more than the economy per se.
Goldminers: The goldminers $XAU dropped -0.7 pct this week which wasn’t near as bad as the loss of -2.2 pct a week ago, or the loss of -1.5 pct the week before that. Maybe the cycle is bottoming? Do you think? A week ago, Friday, $XAU and GDX lifted +1.3 pct and +2.0 pct respectively. So, over the past six sessions, the goldminers have actually lifted.
Forex: The $USD lifted this week by +0.23 pct, and the Euro lost -0.42 pct. A four-week Dollar Rally has just about run out the clock, but I opined that masterpiece a week ago. Heads, tails, heads, tails…
Economic calendar for next week.
Sector ETF Summary
The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.
Seven of the ten sector ETF’s I follow here were DOWN this week. For two of the three gainers (Industrials XLI and IYH Healthcare), all of the gain was made on Friday. The other (Telco IYZ) leaves me wanting to tell a story, which I will cover in the report.
This table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Individual Sector ETF Review
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
XLE had a terrific day Friday (+1.53 pct), which almost saved the week. But XLE lost -0.09 pct to close at 67.77, down 6 cents. Crude Oil on the NYMEX dropped 1.60/bbl (-2.42 pct) on the week, but was up +0.31 pct on Friday, so its not surprising that XLE lost ground, and tried to recover on Friday.
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
CVX was a loser (-2.1 pct) on the week. Of the winners, Madam Wu was offshore drilling for deals in Washington, and China National Offshore (CEO) exhibited a remarkably similar pattern. CEO was down in the mouth until Hank Paulson put a smile on petroleum engineer Madam Wu’s face at the end of the week. CEO gained +1.7 pct on Friday, lifting it to a gain of +1.5 pct W/W.
This guy Paulson is really something. He steps into the job in June 2006 and 4 or 5 weeks later he’s off to visit his buddies (ie, Friends & Family) on the NYSE and CBOT trading floors in July. What I had thought was the start of the 2006+ Bear market (starting May 10-06) then turned out to be Paulson’s Pride.
I mean look at this chart and tell me Paulson didn’t light the fuse.
In ten months, the DJIA is up +26 pct. Unfortunately, the broad market was not materially under-valued in June-July 2006, and there has been no fundamental or economic reason for the market capitalization to have risen a full quarter of its value from all-time in just ten months.
So let’s call a spade a spade: this equity market is being driven by money that is being printed at a rate four times faster than the economy is growing in the US and well over twice as fast as the global number when you add in the most rapidly growing economies. That has led to a massive transfer of wealth out of North America and Western Europe and into the developing world, which in turn has led to inflation, speculation and corporate take-overs. At the end of the day, the global exchange rates are not stable, the global economy is not balanced, and the most threatening issues that Michael Panzner has outlined, at least in the US, are not being addressed – these being Debt, The Retirement System, Govt Guarantees, and Derivatives.
Our elected leadership are too busy empire building and not taking care of business at home. They are too involved in helping Friends & Family get theirs, which is not why the People elected them. This picture will not end nicely. I fear there will be increasing social, international trade and military conflict.
The persons responsible today will not be treated kindly in history by our future generations who will have to pick up the pieces.
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) gained +1.16 pct on Friday, but still lost -0.12 pct W/W to close at 40.25, which was only a wooden nickel.
Gold keeps getting hammered down. But that’s the thing with gold. It’s malleable, and recovers quickly. Particularly when inflation and speculation (and therefore interest rates) are on the rise.
Somebody asked me why it is that I believe the c.bankers are the culprits in whacking gold. I replied that the World Gold Council data tell you all you need to know. If governments didn’t sell, the price of gold would be through the roof because demand would far exceed the supply.
Speaking of real estate, which many of you are this weekend, we all know that the G-7 central bankers are motivated sellers of gold. So what do smart people do when they see a motivated seller selling? The buyers stand aside and let the prices drop. Then they step in and buy more of the stuff.
Unlike residential real estate from these levels, I believe we will see a 100 pct to 250 pct move in gold within maybe eight to ten years. And when gold goes higher, OPEC will withhold their oil from the market because why take wooden nickels? These oil producing nations want to get paid either in gold or in higher prices of the depreciating currencies.
Then interest rates will soar and all that debt that has been building in the past five years at geometric rates of growth will implode. Creditors will simply be unable to pay their debts. But real estate and gold without encumbrances will always have value.
So, what I’m saying is that Basic Materials and Energy are still the places to be for the long-term until govts can figure a way to put a stop to debt expansion that is not linked directly to wealth creation.
And, remember, wars don’t create wealth. In the past 250 years or so, the financial data clearly links war to inflation and speculation, where the prices of energy and metals and precious metals have risen until policy changes by monetary authorities brings the cycle to a close.
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
A week ago, heading into the G-8 c.banker and finance minister meeting, the base metal miners and the PM miners were hit hard. This week, nothing much happened until Friday with the base metals, while gold took it on the chin, then came Friday when the miners and steelers and pipemakers and alums shot the lights out.
RTP +4.9 pct W/W, but +4.9 pct on Friday.
PKX +3.8 pct W/W, but +2.1 pct on Friday.
AA and TS +2.9 pct W/W.
For leading goldminers: AUY (YRI in Canada) was down -5.1 pct W/W, but on Friday was up +2.4 pct. And GG (just G in Canada) was down -3.8 pct W/W, but up +1.7 pct on Friday.
All in all it was a terrible week for gold, but with Madam Wu in town, you can’t very well expect Hank Paulson to let his $USD down, do you? No, this meeting with the world’s most powerful woman -- let’s say hers is the long-grain and Washington has the short-grain, but they’re both pretty equal -- has been planned for quite a while. A crappy dollar would not look good to Her Excellency, so Paulson needed to save face.
Do you think selling another $100 billion in Treasury paper (which is what Treasury Secretaries do) is easy when the buyer buys at par, but gets repaid later at 0.5x par (after figuring the exchange rate differential). If I’m on commish, that is one sales job I’d surely pass up. Even the previous Treasury Secretary wasn’t up to the required “Snow”job.
So, in addition to pulling up Mr Market by the scruff of the neck, Hank Paulson, as I see it, is doing a heck of a job keeping that $USD from falling into the 70’s or lower.
I mean all his friends are spending $USD to buy China, and they are moving their factories there, and building the biggest casinos for fun-time in Macau, and all, so Hank has to convince Madam Wu that his Friends & Family are stupid people and that the Chinese would be smart people in buying up America.
And, you know, he says he got the job done this week! This guy must be superman.
Maybe he’s hoping Madam Wu never upgraded her suanpan with a Bloomberg? Do you think?
No, Paulson’s not that naïve. Dr Bernanke, maybe. Perhaps the good professor doesn’t see that Dr Joe (Xiao) in Beijing is preparing to depart his Governorship of the glorious PBOC, and that maybe Madam Wu was in Washington to grease the skids for his arrival at the Fed.
I mean, what with the Chinese Administration buying into Humungous Private Equity Corp with $3 billion in chump change, there may be some surprises ahead.
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Industrials (XLI) were up +0.65 pct to 38.50 this week, which is five wooden nickels. The problem is that XLI gained +0.60 on Friday, so the rest of the week wasn’t that hot.
Of course, the rest of the week saw a Paulson-inspired USD, and when that sagged on Friday, the market boomed (thinking lower interest rates). But a lower Dollar helps the Industrials because, if that $USD drops to nil, the foreign buyers basically accept American goods and services as gifts.
Maybe that’s the plan. Take the $USD to 50 cents and foreigners can buy Dreamliners and washing machines, Fords and Chevies, and Montana pretty cheap.
Those sales commissions would be pretty good, though. And think of the hundred million dollar retirement pay packages the CEO’s would get. I mean, if the countries headed for bankruptcy, you might as well be “getting yours”.
I hope you see the point that a weak dollar is like mercury in a thermometer. It shows how sick the patient is. To do business properly, owners and managers need to plan ahead. They want a stable $USD – something close to par – maybe +/- 5 pct instead of the ridiculous +/- 30 pct that HB&B prop desk traders are forcing on us.
As it is, business cannot properly plan ahead, so cash is building in their treasuries, unlike Washington’s, who unfortunately are making too many plans of the wrong kind. And with all that cash around, Humungous Private Equity Corp (HPEC), among others, wants it. So the M&A game is keeping bonuses up on Wall Street. As an aside, tell me, why does HB&B have to rent their offices when they could buy the City.
Aha, it’s because they want to stay liquid. It takes a buck to make a buck, and all that stuff. They also need to keep a billion handy for every ten they lend to Friends & Family and HPEC.
For our students, that’s called the Reserve Requirement, which is important to know for exam time.
Just remember, US exporters are the ones who want the people in other countries to have a healthier economy than those at home.
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
BA led the flight again. Last week +3.5 pct, and +1.7 pct this week.
Swiss corp ABB was up +3.0 pct.
But FDX was grounded -0.6 pct to $105.96. Not as bad at last week’s loss of -1.6 pct, but stumbling nonetheless. Over 52-weeks, FDX has lost -1.63 pct, and that’s -9.7 pct over 6 months and -12.4 pct over three months. Not to put too fine a point on it, but FDX is -12.73 pct off its 52-week high of $121.42 on Feb 26, 2007.
FDX, btw, carries packages for business. They make money for shareholders when business is good.
Back in the early Feb 5 report, I wrote this about the Dow Transports and Fedex: “I no longer consider Dow Theory because Transports were not even part of the original theory. Also, Dow Theory was originally a technical look at the US economy. But, globalization has skewed these numbers as Fedex ($114.89) is a major Transport component but is a global concern that has benefited most from growth in the emerging economies. So, what technical analysts need now is a Dow America Theory.”
On the morning of Feb 27, when FDX hit its high ($121.42), I wrote: “US Durable Goods Orders have plummeted (-7.8 pct). Refrigerators, automobiles, industrial machinery, electrical machinery, computers, and the like are not being ordered. They are not being manufactured, and they are not being shipped – in quantities you have been led to believe. The evidence is now coming through.”
It’s been a tough 3 months for Fedex. FDX, btw, is also called a market bellwhether. M&A and the rest of the financial games that are being played under Paulson’s watch are causing you to take your eye off the ball.
In the Week #9-07 report (Mar-3), I wrote, “Fedex (FDX) is no longer “carrying the freight, flying the Transports to a new high, keeping the Bull market technically stable.” Hahaha. No sirree, FDX skid landed this week, down -7.0 pct.”
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) gained +0.25 pct on Friday, but it still lost -0.23 pct W/W, closing at 39.63.
Who’s got ‘tickee’?
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
NKE (+1.9 pct) was running and CCL (+1.6 pct) still floating, but the spin cycle at WHR (-2.3 pct) evidently stopped, and TM (-1.5 pct) dropped into reverse.
A week ago, I wrote, “When the People find money (ie, disposable income) gets tight, one of the first cut-backs is a visit to the casino. I noticed that from July through the end of the year (2006) that casino stocks were in favor. Not so much at this point. This group can be a leading indicator of where equity markets are headed.”
Then I showed the following table, and wrote, “I do think MPEL will be a stock to watch, but I’ll keep my eye on it.” I have to keep my eye on it because I recently put Melco PBL Entertainment (the company, not the stock) into the Cara 100. I could have picked a better time.
Eight leading casino stocks to watch.
Maybe I could have looked at LVS too because Las Vegas Sands (another huge player in Macau) seems to be headed south as well.
Following this week, MPEL is now down -2.9 pct (1 week), -18.0 pct (2 weeks), -24.2 pct (4 weeks) and -37.1 pct YTD.
Hmmm.
Once a high-flyer, LVS is also down -0.2 pct (1 week), -3.7 pct (2 weeks), -13.9 pct (4 weeks) and -16.8 pct YTD.
Only MGM and PENN, on the backs of M&A deals, have thrived this year. When it’s the People’s money, I guess we don’t have tickee to gamble as much these days.
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +0.69 on Friday, but still lost -0.54 pct W/W to close at $27.54.
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
A week ago, Companhia de Bebidas Das Americas (AMBEV) (ABV) rocketed to $67.42. This week it lost almost -$2.00.
Yes, Brazil’s AmBev (ABV) had really been on a rip -- up +10.7 pct a week ago. Since it’s a beer company, I suggested we might refer to it as a rip roaring drunk. No moderation there.
But a hang-over this week as ABV dropped -2.6 pct.
BUD, on the other hand, gained +1.7 pct.
It was interesting to me that many readers have focused on Whole Foods Market Inc (WFMI +1.74 pct W/W), not so much on its low stock price but over social connotations and the ills or threats in today’s economy.
Perhaps you’d like to delve into issues of plutocracy, which is the rule of the rich? This recent development in the letters and comments I have been receiving, together with the new survey software I acquired, has led me to a new concept, the Cara Roundtable.
I mean, if there can be a Business Roundtable for the Gnomes, why can’t there be a populist roundtable?
If this group of a few hundred people can claim to speak for 10 million employees, maybe we can get 10 million of us to speak for them. Maybe we can get into “Task Forces and Issues,” Special Initiatives” and “Publications” too?
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
The IYH healthcare ETF was up +0.15 pct W/W, after being up +0.14 pct on Friday, to close at 72.25. A week ago, Friday (+0.73 pct) was a also good day, just like the Friday before that. Hmmm.
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Glasko became the big story this week, with its regulatory challenges, going down -9.2 pct W/W. UNH lifted +1.7 pct. AMGN recovered a bit (+0.9 pct), which is nothing compared to its recent performance.
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
The Financials ETF (XLF) lost -0.69 pct to close at 37.56, which was 8th best performer out of 10 this week.
There was another effort to have Friday close strong, but it failed.
Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |

