The bond market is speaking out. As prices continue to drop, based more on an ‘animal spirit’ concern than on the spirit of inflation, bond yields will soon rise past the economy’s breaking point, I feel.

Something has to give. This week I am going to point again to the fact that very few US stocks are pulling the equity market higher. The NASDAQ and Russell Small Cap indexes had losing weeks, and the broader S&P 500 only gained +1.1 pct vs +1.7 pct for the Dow.

On January 3, I made this statement, “Gold will be the asset class of the year.” I still believe that will be the case. That cannot happen without extreme broad market action, typically following a market ‘melt-up’ based on inflation/speculation or, as in the case of the Great Depression of the 1930’s in the US, which followed the melt-up and crash of 1928.

That the global equity market is in a ‘melt-up’ is undeniable. When I used that expression on February 1, some people thought it must be April 1 and that I was joking. But that blog was almost three months’ ago and now my words are not being laughed at.

Just like I believe that Precious Metal bullion and share ETF’s have been used by market interventionists to try to create an image that inflation and speculation are in control, when we know they are not, I think the inverse broad market ETF’s, used today to protect portfolios, could soon be used to drive this equity market to great depths.

I have also opined that there will be a massive Bear market that will be followed by a G-20 Agreement on currencies – before the next Bull market begins. I still believe that will be the case, as well.

I truly believe that the natural market cycle reversed from Bull to Bear on or about May 10, 2006. I believe the Gnomes panicked, and had Pres. Bush pull Treasury Sec. John Snow out of his position and, as a ‘thank you for favors rendered’ put him into the head position at the Humungous Private Equity Corp (HPEC) unit Cerberus.

You see, HPEC (KKR, Carlyle Group, Blackstone, Bain, Cerberus et al) represents the Gnomes, and these are the very private string-pullers who pull the chains of the President and key Senators of the US, and central bankers and finance ministers, and people like them who have been boosted to power by so-called “democratic” forces in other countries.

HPEC, in May 2006, had an agenda in place, which has been playing out since then. It involves the take-over of listed corporations in many countries, and the total funds being provided by Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) is over $1 trillion. A Bear market starting in May 2006 would have stopped those plans.

It might have even kept the Chinese from joining HPEC. Yes, China has agreed to take a $3 billion stake in Blackstone Group. Hmmm.

In any case, after John Snow was shuffled off to Cerberus, possibly the only person in the world who could sustain a Bull market beyond its natural cycle, Henry Paulson, was parachuted into the Treasury Secretary position in June of 2006. A month later, after visiting the trading floors in NY and Chicago, Paulson and Bernanke managed to juice the equity market for another year, and gold took off as a result. Few people then talked Bear market.

The checkerboard is almost complete by HPEC: Texas Utilities, ABN AMRO Bank, Equity Office Properties Trust, Trizec Properties, Chrysler, maybe Ford next, GMAC, pieces coming out of General Electric, First Data Corp, Biomet, HCA, Clear Channel Communications, the re-org of Cendant, probably Canada’s Alcan, following Stelco, and a list of others… and now China.

And all the time you thought Paulson was mad at the Chinese, and talking over their Yuan issue.

Credit swaps have facilitated this amazing situation where debt has been permitted to grow to a point that even the world’s biggest commercial bankers (HB&B) don’t know where they stand, and for them to tell us they have risk management systems that will contain any problem, we only have to look at the quite recent developments at BMO. Sad isn’t it, that BMO doesn’t seem to have a clue whether: (i) the Optionable situation was fraud or simply bad management (ii) the loss on trading Natural Gas Futures was $350-$450 million or $680 million? Could it be billions, like Amaranth?

Today, HB&B research departments no longer seem interested in talking revenue, earnings, cash flow and dividend growth in absolute dollars. They are hung up by distorted calculations caused by mega-billion dollar share buy-backs and extreme dividend payouts. So, now the ratings seem to be “due to valuation concerns”, which really has little to do with valuation and a lot to do with price speculation. But HB&B won’t call a spade a spade because they don’t want to be accused of shouting fire in a crowded theater.

Hence, just like I wrote in 2H99 (in my Internet-based weekly letter at the time) that HB&B research opinions could not be trusted because 98.5 pct of ratings for the Dow 30 stocks were “Strong Buy, Buy or Hold”. We all know how that took Mom & Pop, Joe & Joesy, right to the cleaners. Today is a new cycle peak, but a similar game. HB&B research calls are getting more bizarre by the week.

The pressure to hold this market from imploding must be fierce.

Few people want to read and discuss Michael Panzner’s “Financial Armageddon”, but they ought to. Mean reversion is going to occur. It’s just a matter of when. The bigger the amount of juice injected into this market to keep it growing, the bigger will be the fall to reality.

What will do it? The unwinding of the Japanese Carry Trade for one. At some point, the Japanese lenders will raise rates and want to collect on their loans. I suspect some of those loans will never be paid. A bankruptcy here, a bankruptcy there (hedge funds we’re talking about) will soon hit those Japanese banks and then watch how fast rates rise, and how fast the Carry Trade unwinds.

Another driver could be those Credit Swaps that underlie Private Equity’s recent penchant for debt. A failure here, a failure there will send HB&B scrambling. If a two-bit trading floor in nat gas futures has roiled a bank the size of BMO, what would happen if the loss was the size of Amaranth. Yes, Amaranth cost Mom & Pop’s pension funds mega-billions, but what happens when the loser is a mid to large-sized commercial bank? The Hong Kong Chinese can tell you what a run on a bank looks like. The lines around the block stop traffic, and depositors don’t take kindly to police barricades when family wealth is crashing. That’s a crowd that doesn’t need external agitation to erupt.

Who knows when or where the problems start? I know I don’t.

I just believe that debt-free gold will not drop far. Do you know why? According to research data I use, the break-even cost to produce an ounce of gold today of all goldminers in the world – large, mid-size and small producers is US$482. For the senior miners who produce the bulk of it, the production cost is US$495, and for the North American majors in that group, it is US$512. That does not include costs for management or exploration. So, at a price well above US$512, gold miners will shut down. They will start with their least efficient operations, and office overhead, and grind slowly into a full stop.

So, it is inconceivable to me that gold will drop below say $550.

Funny how Steve Forbes is always saying that he believes the Oil price could drop from $70 to $30. I suppose that’s possible if OPEC producers want to keep pumping oil. The $100 billion Western Canadian Oil Sands, however, would be toast, for what its worth.

But I assure you, the world, which is now looking at $660 gold, will no longer see $500 gold unless there really is a gold horde in Fort Knox and the US Government plans to give it away. Who knows, maybe in a depression, Prof. Bernanke will be force to dole it out to the tens of millions of people at the Food Banks that are rapidly building across America.

At the end of the day, gold will always be good to buy the essentials of life, and to buy asset repo’s from HB&B, like houses and land. You see, you may not, at some point, have enough zero’s on the end of your Dollars, but bankers will always take Gold. They print money (through extension of debt), which is why they put their trust in gold.

As soon as you see a big bank fail in North America, you can expect to see two long line-ups at your bank: one to withdraw paper money and another (if your bank offers it) to buy Gold bullion bars and coins.

You won’t even be interested in a PM ETF at that point because that’s just paper too.

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: Canada (+3.0 pct) and India (+2.8 pct) led the way this week, and sometime in June, the Senators of Ottawa will win the Stanley Cup. I had bet on Buffalo, unfortunately. You see, nobody in Toronto, the centre of the hockey universe, likes the Senators. Well, they don’t like Ottawa either, but that’s a whole different matter. The Japanese market had a set-back (I continue to warn).

U.S. Equities : The Dow jumped (+1.7 pct) and the S&P 500 (+1.1 pct) followed, but the other broad markets were down. The Russell small cap 2000 (-0.7 pct) and the NASDAQ Composite (0.15 pct) were laggards, but next week will likely be a different story as certain vested interests need this market to lift.

Dow 30 : The DJIA lifted +230 points (+1.73 pct) to 13,556. Lots of debt being run up for buying back shares and issuing higher than normal dividend increases. Same old, same old, but I expect it to continue through the Summer.

U.S. Sector ETFs: Nine of 10 US sector ETF’s were up this week. There was little natural sector rotation this week, like last, but there was the usual flip for SMH. A week ago, I wrote, “Forget the SMH because that’s either first or last or nearby – so call it an average of 5.5.” Well, after running 1-2-1-1 for the past four weeks, this week SMH was shot. While all other sectors moved higher, SMH dropped -2.2 pct W/W. From 1 to 10, I’m just trying to keep the average at 5.5.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #1 (+4.0 pct); $WTIC +2.9 pct after +3.5 pct week ago
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #5 (+1.2 pct); All steel and aluminum this week
20: Industrials (XLI): #9 (+0.2 pct); BA (+3.5 pct)pulled hard; FDX did not
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #6 (+1.1 pct); Tickee from where? HB&B?
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #2 (+1.8 pct); ABV, PEP, WAG, PG were all good
35: Healthcare (IYH): #7 (+0.7 pct); Biotechs were a drag on health
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #8 (+0.2 pct); Nervous bankers with G-8 around
45: Tech (SMH chips): #10 (-2.2 pct); Lots of recovery on Friday
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #4 (+1.3 pct); All T (+3.8 pct), VZ (+3.0 pct)
55: Utilities (XLU): #3 (+1.5 pct); Two or three stocks only are pulling

Bonds: The US Bond market had a monster move, down as I anticipated. Yields up +11 to 15 bp, which was more than I expected.

Commodities: Crude oil was set on fire. The price jumped +2.9 pct as $WTIC lifted to 65.98.

Oil & Gas: A lot of heat in that West Texas Intermediate. I was watching the Rangers-Jays in Arlington one Summer night along with my staff and a ton of kids I sponsored via a local radio station. The scoreboard read 99 degrees. A/C and summer driving, and maybe a couple hurricanes in the Gulf, more civil strife in Nigeria, and on and on. We don’t even need Peak Oil. The OPECers don’t want 20 wooden nickel dollars in lieu of real money.

Gold: Metals and precious metals got hammered again this week, but not to worry; help is on the way. On Friday, the cavalry started to climb the hill. This is no Light Brigade.

Goldminers: The goldminers $XAU sank -2.2 pct this week, after dropping -1.5 pct a week ago, and GDX dropped -2.3 pct. But on Friday, $XAU and GDX lifted +1.3 pct and +2.0 pct respectively. I was tempted to write, respectfully BECAUSE GOLD KNOWS.

Forex: The $USD lifted this week by +0.06 pct, which is like nothing (reversal coming?), and the Euro lost -0.13 pct. A three-week Dollar Rally has just about run out the clock.

Economic calendar for next week.

Econoday weekly report.

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US Marketwatch

Another solid close to the week with the DJIA up +0.6 pct. It’s called window dressing.

DJIA chart

Colin Twiggs believes the Dow is accelerating in a Phase 2 up-trend, but he again urges caution because now that the upper trend channel has been broken, accompanied by rising money flow, bad things can follow. In his words, “Accelerating up-trends make big gains but normally end with a sharp reversal, so it is important to protect profits. Reversal below the upper channel line would signal that the trend is weakening…”

This week, the Dow 30 were led by IBM on Friday (+2.54 pct), and GM (+6.8 pct), AA (+4.5 pct), DD (+3.9 pct), T (+3.8 pct), C (+3.6 pct), BA (+3.5 pct), MCD (+3.3 pct), VZ and PG (+3.0 pct). If you are going to continue holding these stocks, you might protect those gains by buying puts. Writing calls is not going to help at this point in a melt-up.

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A dozen NYSE DJIA stocks to watch.

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NASDAQ Composite chart

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Cara 100 Stockwatch

Here are the Cara 100 gainers on Friday.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers

Natural Resources stocks (GICS 10 and 15) carried the market higher on Friday.

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Here are the top Cara 100 losers for Friday.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)

There were twenty (20) stocks of the Cara 100 for Friday that hit 52-week intra-day highs and none found hitting lows.

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Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.

Nine of the ten sector ETF’s I follow here were up this week.

The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	67.83	1.08	1.62%	4.02%	4.92%	7.50%	19.88%	16.95%	18.79%	26.38%
XLP	27.69	0.20	0.73%	1.80%	1.06%	0.44%	5.37%	2.90%	6.95%	17.33%
XLU	42.83	0.23	0.54%	1.49%	1.76%	3.03%	16.32%	12.00%	18.84%	38.92%
IYZ	33.40	0.13	0.39%	1.30%	1.86%	3.50%	12.61%	7.71%	17.56%	35.99%
XLB	40.28	0.15	0.37%	1.18%	2.23%	3.07%	16.38%	6.82%	19.07%	25.40%
XLY	39.72	0.36	0.91%	1.07%	0.56%	0.38%	3.12%	-0.45%	4.22%	18.74%
IYH	72.14	0.42	0.59%	0.70%	-0.25%	0.90%	8.55%	4.73%	9.42%	19.67%
XLF	37.82	0.13	0.34%	0.19%	0.27%	1.89%	2.44%	0.16%	5.06%	16.62%
XLI	38.25	-0.13	-0.34%	0.16%	0.71%	3.88%	8.57%	4.39%	8.14%	12.73%
SMH	37.15	0.05	0.13%	-2.19%	-0.99%	2.54%	10.66%	7.77%	5.30%	7.09%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

XLE gained +4.02 pct to close at 67.83, which is not surprising as the price of Crude Oil on the NYMEX lifted +2.9 pct after being up 3.5 pct a week ago as well.

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Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IMO	45.86	1.56	3.52%	13.51%	16.75%	18.75%	28.60%	24.42%	27.32%	-55.51%
STO	27.93	0.70	2.57%	5.64%	-4.09%	-0.53%	8.72%	7.55%	6.60%	0.22%
ECA	62.47	0.77	1.25%	5.61%	10.47%	16.83%	37.78%	27.65%	24.99%	38.79%
SU	87.68	1.58	1.84%	5.25%	6.45%	7.64%	18.63%	16.89%	15.95%	14.82%
PBR	107.39	0.75	0.70%	5.08%	5.24%	3.18%	7.76%	14.18%	20.26%	17.88%
CVX	82.85	1.39	1.71%	3.51%	4.48%	5.61%	16.74%	17.00%	19.90%	41.14%
XOM	83.26	1.46	1.78%	2.50%	3.36%	4.39%	12.35%	10.59%	13.93%	39.02%
TOT	76.05	1.94	2.62%	1.59%	0.72%	3.30%	7.16%	8.35%	8.35%	14.79%
CEO	91.79	1.02	1.12%	0.10%	2.83%	4.82%	-2.63%	8.92%	7.65%	20.05%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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The IMO and SU charts from the Canadian Oil Sands have to be seen to be appreciated. Gains of this magnitude will not continue unless the price of Crude Oil moves to a new trading range from 65 to 75. which is possible. When the Monthly-Weekly-Daily on the RSI are soaring, I wait until the Daily RSI-7 falls below 70 before I consider selling, though.

Another factor is that the Cdn Dollar this week has also soared (+2.2 pct W/W) as foreign investors climbed on board these Canadian oils. That Cdn Dollar is going to hurt tourism this summer, and more Canadians will be vacationing down south.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) gained +1.18 pct W/W to close at 40.28, which was the #5 performer this week.

I still await a final melt-up in the metals and PM’s. A week ago I wrote, “… but I am concerned that the M-W-D RSI-7 for XLB is 87.5 (highest ever)/78.5/59.0. The saving grace here is that the Weekly and especially the Daily RSI pulled back to a margin of comfort. I think another “high-risk Buy” was signaled Friday morning, which I’ll discuss in the Gold section of this report.” Gold did not help this week until Friday.

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GGB	22.16	0.08	0.36%	6.90%	7.42%	7.47%	34.96%	18.38%	47.73%	51.99%
MT	59.29	1.64	2.84%	5.27%	4.99%	8.04%	45.32%	16.37%	46.79%	73.57%
AA	39.73	0.58	1.48%	4.47%	11.41%	15.59%	35.46%	14.23%	40.54%	26.89%
TS	46.44	0.73	1.60%	2.79%	-2.27%	-2.99%	-4.29%	-1.51%	8.10%	32.95%
RIO	45.09	0.13	0.29%	1.23%	2.76%	7.97%	56.45%	25.60%	73.09%	88.82%
NUE	66.64	0.89	1.35%	1.20%	1.93%	-1.55%	22.28%	2.97%	16.69%	27.18%
BHP	51.10	0.47	0.93%	-2.37%	-1.03%	1.31%	31.46%	11.67%	27.08%	18.37%
TCK	41.37	0.88	2.17%	-2.98%	-49.47%	-45.62%	-40.26%	-45.31%	-39.72%	0.00%
PKX	111.00	-0.90	-0.80%	-3.81%	4.48%	8.93%	39.75%	15.47%	50.43%	66.17%
RTP	278.38	0.33	0.12%	-4.30%	6.20%	11.90%	36.39%	26.08%	36.27%	33.14%

With central bankers around this weekend, traders are nervous. But not to worry. There is nobody around that table who can stop printing money so fast.

The steels and aluminums did real well, but the base metal miners and the PM miners were hit again.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Industrials (XLI) was up just +0.16 pct to 38.25 this week. That’s six cents to the good. And if those are real pennies, it’s about a dime to the good if you catch my drift.

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Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BA	96.63	-0.16	-0.17%	3.46%	3.23%	3.58%	8.37%	6.26%	7.94%	16.80%
ABB	20.41	0.31	1.54%	2.61%	2.00%	8.91%	14.53%	12.70%	29.51%	63.02%
MMM	86.90	0.23	0.27%	1.58%	3.19%	11.77%	11.04%	13.09%	6.76%	3.27%
HON	58.70	0.48	0.82%	1.57%	4.60%	14.20%	30.16%	22.73%	36.70%	41.75%
UTX	69.19	-0.18	-0.26%	1.17%	1.75%	2.53%	10.16%	0.74%	4.69%	10.42%
GE	36.96	0.43	1.18%	-0.03%	-0.51%	5.21%	-2.66%	3.04%	1.96%	8.23%
CAT	74.77	-0.07	-0.09%	-0.15%	2.28%	4.11%	22.25%	10.49%	22.69%	0.20%
ERJ	47.19	0.18	0.38%	-0.30%	-0.34%	-0.76%	15.72%	2.63%	11.14%	35.21%
FDX	106.55	-0.68	-0.63%	-1.58%	-2.69%	-2.27%	-2.93%	-8.97%	-9.27%	-2.47%

BA led the flight +3.5 pct. But FDX was grounded -1.6 pct to $106.55.

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Colin Twiggs (www.incrediblecharts.com) likes the broad market here, but notes weakness in the Dow Transports, including Fedex and UPS. He opines that the DJTA could break either way here.

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In the Week #9-07 report (Mar-3), I wrote, “Fedex (FDX) is no longer “carrying the freight, flying the Transports to a new high, keeping the Bull market technically stable.” Hahaha. No sirree, FDX skid landed this week, down -7.0 pct.”

Well, Fedex (FDX) has fallen right out of the blue sky, which another leading indicator you ought to be watching.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) gained +1.07 pct W/W to close at 39.72.

Who’s got ‘tickee’?

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JCP	79.68	-0.06	-0.08%	4.17%	-0.47%	-4.22%	2.08%	-6.53%	-0.52%	27.02%
BC	34.26	0.39	1.15%	2.42%	3.69%	9.49%	7.33%	2.45%	4.93%	-5.52%
TM	121.83	0.33	0.27%	1.58%	0.74%	-3.26%	-9.96%	-11.17%	-0.85%	10.15%
WHR	113.83	0.69	0.61%	1.27%	2.36%	25.82%	34.46%	18.33%	31.60%	34.34%
CCL	49.18	1.72	3.62%	0.80%	2.57%	4.19%	-3.47%	1.70%	-1.36%	21.31%
NKE	53.25	0.30	0.57%	0.41%	-0.08%	-0.52%	9.05%	0.19%	11.42%	33.53%
DIS	36.02	0.03	0.08%	-0.14%	0.47%	2.10%	5.32%	3.24%	9.35%	21.69%
SBUX	28.95	0.48	1.69%	-2.23%	-5.70%	-8.56%	-17.87%	-12.30%	-22.63%	-19.54%
EBAY	32.70	-0.28	-0.85%	-4.39%	-4.25%	-2.45%	8.39%	-2.74%	-3.08%	10.32%

JCP (+4.2 pct), BC +2.4 pct, TM (+1.6 pct) and WHR (+1.3 pct) led the way. I am surprised at the ongoing strength of BC and WHR. Maybe Private Equity has been checking their books? Do you think?

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When the People find money (ie, disposable income) gets tight, one of the first cut-backs is a visit to the casino. I noticed that from July through the end of the year (2006) that casino stocks were in favor. Not so much at this point. This group can be a leading indicator of where equity markets are headed.

Eight leading casino stocks to watch.

I do think MPEL will be a stock to watch, but I’ll keep my eye on it.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +1.80 pct W/W to close at $27.69.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	67.42	1.65	2.51%	10.71%	10.07%	12.40%	37.31%	27.30%	43.75%	56.86%
PEP	69.48	0.99	1.45%	4.01%	3.06%	4.25%	10.78%	7.52%	11.56%	18.38%
WAG	45.74	0.40	0.88%	3.62%	2.05%	-0.13%	-0.72%	-0.59%	8.90%	13.30%
PG	63.48	0.11	0.17%	2.97%	1.71%	-0.50%	-1.64%	-2.44%	-0.60%	15.65%
MO	69.95	0.25	0.36%	1.98%	0.85%	0.58%	7.75%	8.13%	9.64%	32.26%
DEO	84.98	0.78	0.93%	1.07%	-0.07%	2.15%	6.85%	4.42%	12.17%	28.45%
BUD	50.15	0.47	0.95%	0.02%	-0.69%	-4.68%	1.89%	-1.97%	6.95%	8.57%
KO	52.63	0.43	0.82%	-0.11%	-1.09%	1.04%	8.34%	9.94%	11.36%	20.85%
WMT	47.27	0.16	0.34%	-1.07%	-2.07%	-5.00%	-0.59%	-2.50%	-0.48%	0.11%
WFMI	39.74	0.21	0.53%	-3.00%	-12.18%	-13.44%	-12.62%	-14.41%	-19.55%	-40.44%

Companhia de Bebidas Das Americas (AMBEV) (ABV) rocketed up +10.7 pct to $67.42.

Yes, Brazil’s AmBev (ABV) has really been on a rip. Since it’s a beer company, maybe we can refer to it as a rip roaring drunk. No moderation here.

Tell me, why is beer a Staple anyway? I can’t answer that, but I do believe many of you had never heard of this company until you saw it as a Cara Global 100 company. Hooray.

Tao, Brother!

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The IYH healthcare ETF was up +0.70 pct W/W to close at 72.14. Friday (+0.73 pct) was a good day, like a week earlier.

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AET	52.29	-0.27	-0.51%	4.60%	7.33%	16.56%	21.94%	14.65%	26.70%	29.72%
JNJ	63.42	0.68	1.08%	1.85%	-1.64%	-2.61%	-4.49%	-3.19%	-5.68%	5.45%
GSK	57.71	0.36	0.63%	1.58%	-0.33%	-2.76%	7.25%	-0.12%	10.98%	1.94%
PFE	27.44	0.08	0.29%	1.48%	1.33%	1.74%	4.37%	4.33%	0.85%	14.86%
BMY	30.45	0.24	0.79%	0.69%	1.43%	6.21%	15.43%	10.17%	22.78%	26.09%
BMET	43.59	0.14	0.32%	0.39%	0.55%	0.88%	5.11%	2.90%	13.57%	22.38%
UNH	53.47	-0.18	-0.34%	-0.22%	-0.19%	0.51%	1.71%	-0.89%	13.16%	18.04%
NVS	56.71	-0.46	-0.80%	-1.17%	-3.31%	-1.94%	-2.46%	-4.27%	-2.71%	-0.18%
DNA	77.28	-0.18	-0.23%	-3.57%	-5.08%	-6.21%	-5.53%	-10.63%	-5.61%	1.78%
AMGN	54.04	0.36	0.67%	-4.01%	-15.22%	-12.80%	-20.99%	-19.02%	-25.47%	-19.46%

Aetna (AET +4.6 pct) continues to be a story. Is Private Equity checking that one too?

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When equity markets peak, one of the first to soften is the Biotech group because the industry P/E ratio is usually very high. Presently, according to industry data at Yahoo Finance, the Healthcare industry PE is 39.7, which is super high, but the Biotech industry is at a nose-bleeding height of 59.3.

A dozen Biotech stocks to watch.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) was barely up this week. XLF gained +0.19 pct to close at 37.82.

There was another “hot” Friday (+0.34 pct), which stopped XLF from being a loser.

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Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
C	55.00	0.20	0.36%	3.56%	1.68%	2.96%	-0.45%	1.66%	8.27%	12.87%
UBS	64.80	1.35	2.13%	2.22%	1.97%	0.42%	5.55%	2.81%	6.95%	15.26%
GS	230.34	2.96	1.30%	1.25%	1.32%	4.70%	14.76%	6.19%	18.10%	56.66%
JPM	52.54	-0.02	-0.04%	0.75%	-0.17%	0.00%	9.30%	2.52%	10.24%	22.93%
MER	94.17	1.97	2.14%	0.71%	1.59%	2.34%	0.60%	1.49%	3.63%	33.40%