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May 30, 2007
Cara’s Daily Commentary, Wed., May 30, 2007, 9:20 AM
Market Chat
There comes a time for the People to speak up. Recently, I warned that the next appointee of President Bush to head the World Bank would be to the organization or person to whom he owed the most political capital. Today, the Goldman Sach’s drumbeat in the White House goes on.
GS Vice-Chairman Robert Zoellick is the person the President says is "exceptionally qualified" for the job because of his "years of experience" in international economics, diplomacy and trade. Should anybody be surprised? After all, Goldman Sachs has taken control of the US Treasury, the Fed, the New York Stock Exchange and now the World Bank – all since March 7, 2006.
Is it any wonder that when the majority of independent analysts figured that the current Bull market had ended in a normal 4 year cycle in May 2006 that along came Goldman Sachs to deem that the equity market would expand and that, with the help of Friends & Family in Humungous Private Equity Corp, they were “going to get theirs”?
Is this concentration of the nation’s financial control in the hands of a single private company what the US Founding Fathers had in mind? Is today’s Congress even the least bit clued in to what is going on here?
Btw, these moves started in 2003 when former NYSE CEO Richard Grasso was given a back-room compensation deal that bumped the total of his “reasonable pay” to $139.5 million, causing then NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer to file a lawsuit against Grasso on May 24, 2004, for a combined $187 million compensation package, including prior entitlements.
Then the Goldman Sachs president and chief operating officer at the time, John Thain, was parachuted into the NYSE to take the permanent CEO’s job. John had also been an advisor to the Fed’s International Capital Markets Advisory Committee.
Thain then helped to complete the reverse take-over of the NYSE by Goldman Sachs'-controlled Archipelago on March 7, 2006.
Henry Paulson, Goldman Sachs chairman and CEO was nominated to the position of Treasury Secretary by the President on May 30, 2006, confirmed by the Senate on June 30 and sworn in on July 10, 2006. Ten days later, after visiting Family & Friends on the trading floors in NY and Chicago, the depressed US equity market took off like a rocket, performing like never before in history.
Here is the chart as of the close last week. Look at the key date when Hank Paulson took over the US Treasury.
In November 2006, William Dudley, 10 years the chief US economist for Goldman Sachs was parachuted in to the Federal Reserve Bank to oversee all open market trading operations of the FOMC, a position that was confirmed by the Fed executive on Jan 30-31, 2007. In my article, “Non Trader is now America’s CTO, Nov 29, 2006”, I alerted readers that Mr Dudley was not a trader, and that he often joked about how bad a trader he is.
But I suppose he takes instructions well from Hank Paulson.
I think the Goldman Sachs control situation is dire. Today we learn it has been extended to now cover the president’s job of the World Bank, with the intention to install GS Vice-Chairman Robert Zoellick in that position.
America now is under control of the “Gold”man. I don’t think the People have a clue.
I warned of this in my article, “Should the name be Gambino Sachs? Tues., May 30, 2006”.
I also warned readers in my Week #36 in Review (Sept 9, 2006) that the Paulson Plunge Protection Team was at work juicing the equity market. The mid-July 2006 rocket launch, the week that Paulson took the reins at Treasury, was clear to me, so by Sept 9, I had these words to say in my blog:
One of the readers sent a report by the "Counterparty Risk Management Policy Group" of Humungous Bank & Broker. This is the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) at work, which you may find of interest.In it, you'll get to read about the why and how our markets are no longer free, but carefully controlled by Henry Paulson et al. You'll read about subjects like 'Private Counterparty Surveillance' and a ‘Moral Hazard' that I bet 99 pct of you have never heard of.
Oh yes, you'll read (i) about the massive credit bubble, not of our doing, (ii) reasons why hedge funds are not directly regulated, although common sense dictates they ought to be (iii) unconscionable conflicts existing at Humungous Bank & Broker that are not permitted in any other aspect of our society, but which HB&B says is not a problem, and (iv) the procedures by which these financial service companies organize and control us.
It may be their report, but it is incumbent upon the most serious and capable among us to analyze it and tell the others what they ought to know is going on in the boardrooms of the Money Center Banks and Washington. We all have a stake in this.
I think it is time for independent thinkers, bloggers and investment analysts to speak up about this Goldman Sachs issue – now, before it is too late.
Economics Calendar and Reports
Economic calendar from Econoday
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
International Equity Markets Review
Here’s the closing data of the Asia-Pacific equity markets..
Shanghai virtually collapsed (-6.5 pct), but the other regional markets were down relatively less. If the Chinese authorities do not want their people to be speculating in shares, perhaps some of that money will be moved into Precious Metals purchases.
Here’s the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
At mid-session (8:39am ET), the European bourses are all down, relatively sharply.
Bonds & Yields Review
Here is the T-Bond chart.
Last trade (8:34am) for the June T-Bond (30-year) was 109.37500.
Interesting how the bond popped and yields dropped this morning. I am assuming that FOMC head trader (ex-Goldman Sachs US chief economist William Dudley) was told what to do by Treasury Sec Paulson.
Forex Review
Here is the $USD chart at the close of the prior session.
A powerful rally in the $USD from mid-day yesterday has powered the price to 82.458 at 8:17am ET this morning.
I believe this market strength was co-ordinated between Hank Paulson and Madam Wu.
Commodities Review
Here is the $CRB Index chart.
The $CRB dropped again to 307.01. As I said a couple days ago, “The lower the “G” Team can push this index, the more that their Friends can push a story line that rates do not have to rise here, which is code for “the higher the equity markets can fly”.”
Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY July-07 Crude Oil chart.
Last at 3.250, the e-MiNY Jul-07 contracts for Crude Oil were pushed down yesterday and again early this morning.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Here is the Jun-07 Gold futures chart.

Yesterday, June Gold futures closed at 653.5. The US monetary authority (Hank Paulson) and his “Gold”man cohorts are now in control. They want gold down and the $USD up. Pretty soon, the Chinese authorities at the PBOC (Dr Xiao for now – before he takes a seat on some “Gold”man controlled International Agency) will let the Yuan move higher, which will push down the $USD, so Paulson needs it as strong as possible in the interim.
But the operative word in the previous paragraph is “now”. In every case I can recall where capital markets are manipulated by interventionists like Hank Paulson and his Friends & Family, the world has turned against it, and the prices have reverted to the mean, which means that as far as they overshoot on the high side, there will be an equally powerful opposite move.
I’m betting that as soon as Paulson finishes “getting his” -- probably timed with the end of President Bush’s term -- that counterforces will prevail. I expect the independent owners and managers of capital will feast on the servings of the “G” Team.
What I am saying is that put buyers will exploit this melt-up. That move will, of course, be joined by the “G” Team, but the end result will be a terrible record in history for the current president and the “G” Team.
Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.
This morning at 9:06am ET, the AU spot price was down to 652.40. I delayed this Daily Report because I suspected as much.
But at the end of the day, all the foundation for a powerful counter move in gold is in place. What Paulson et al have done is just coil the spring, pull back on the elastic band. Nothing more.
The fact is that central bankers are printing money as fast as Friends & Family of the “G” Team can put it to good use in taking control of corporations, like Chrysler. Ultimately, interest rates will have to move higher BECAUSE of what c.bankers are doing today. Your man Paulson is not “your” man – if you catch my drift. The flip side of his coin is that rates have to move higher, which kills jobs, forces people out of their homes, pushes costs higher, including oil and gold.
So, keep the time horizon and the causes in mind when linking rates to gold prices.
Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.
At 9:12am ET this morning, the AG spot was 13.03. A nice run yesterday helped. This morning the interventionists are knocking it back down.
Here is the Recent Spot Platinum chart.
Platinum continues to be soft. Last trade (9:14am ET) is 1256.
Here is the Recent Spot Palladium chart.
Palladium is presently 362, down marginally from the close last week.
Precious Metals Stocks Review
Here are the Daily and Weekly Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:
The goldminers have been pushed down since mid-April. There will be a summer rally, I believe. I also believe it will be a rather strong one.
The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.
Here are the Daily and Weekly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:
Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
ABX NEM GG GFI KGC AU HMY AUY BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
This data is supplied every day by the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc.
Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 gainers
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers
Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 losers
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)
Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the previous session
Early today, the Chinese government increased the stamp tax on stock purchases from 0.01 pct to .03 pct. A few years ago, when speculation was rampant, as it is today in China, the stamp tax was at .06 pct.
Interesting to me that yesterday, following Madam Wu’s visit to Hank Paulson, all the major China stocks took a hit BEFORE the stamp tax assessment knocked the shanghai Composite down about -6.5 pct.
That’s right, look at the loser’s list. Of the Chinese Cara 100, there are CHL, CHA, CEO and PTR. I have 4 large cap Chinese stocks in the Cara 100. Yesterday, before today’s broad market smash in China, these four are in the top 17 C100 losers.
I have been around enough to know this stuff does not happen by accident. Friends & Family were tipped. I’m wondering how many new put options were put on to these stocks yesterday.
What the independent trader needs is an independent regulator, not a Bush appointee to head the SEC to take instructions from Goldman Sachs. If I’m the head of that independent market regulator, trust me the options trades in Chinese stocks yesterday would be checked for links to the “Gold”man and the “G” Team.
Not only that, but I would publish the results, transparently, whether I found a link or found there was no link. I would do that to instil the confidence of independent traders.
What is happening today is just flat-out scepticism – and that cannot be healthy for capital markets. But it is the sign of a rotting empire.
Here, from “Chris”, are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from “Chris”:
Using data from “Chris” – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which he takes from Worden, the Cara 100 Company stocks that are below 30 on the Daily RSI-7 numbered just 5 yesterday versus the 12 above 70.
Here, from “David”, are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest and lowest Daily RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for the previous session.
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with highest RSI-7 with Monthly-Weekly-Daily all either >70 or <30
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with RSI-7 Daily all >70 or all <30.
Merrill Lynch has downgraded Cara 100 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).
UBS upgraded Cara 100 Nucor (NUE).
Four firms initiated coverage of MetroPCS (PCS) with a BUY. Those four are UBS, Bear Stearns, Wachovia and Banc of America Securities. That is a powerful group.
Yesterday, Citigroup upgraded Cara 100 NetEase.com (NTES).
There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website updates in the morning.
Community Chat
Please note that anywhere I use material from INO, Knobias, Worden, and StockCharts, it is with written authorization. I say this because when I went to a friend of three years to get his authorization, he now claims, despite several hours of confirming phone talk, e-mails and discussions with various people I am associated with that prove the contrary, he now claims he is unaware of my website, and he asserts copywrite abuse. Interesting that this allegation came up only after we rejected his attempt to put an inappropriate banner ad on my site after I start to use banners in June.
In any event, I removed his fully attributed material from my archives, not because he demanded it, but because I no longer wish to have any association with the person. We all choose our own road in life and the people we call friends. Sometimes life contains little surprises, but we do the best we can.
Have a great day. I know I will. The doc says my skin looks in good shape now. And some people are going to see how thick it is too.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 30, 2007 09:20:08 AM | Category: Cara's Daily Commentary
Discourse
For anyone long PMs this morning: don't let yourself get taken out...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 30, 2007 9:46 AM [link]
BMD rebounding today, up 7% on good volume...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 30, 2007 9:52 AM [link]
Good Morning, Bill, Once again, Thanks for sharing your hard earned experience with us. Not being a trader, you help me keep, my resolve when things are not are going against the way I have positioned for. Bill
Posted by: Bishx
at
May 30, 2007 9:52 AM [link]
Chris,
The article that you are referring to is written by J.L. Bane. I will not link it here because I don't want to help him get more eyeballs. This is the third or fourth article that he has written, knocking KRY and promoting GRZ, in Seeking Alpha. I think that he has a vested interest. His arguments are made by providing half-information that he requires to make his case but, that's just my opinion. I found his previous article to be so promotional that I wrote an email to Seeking Alpha asking why he was selected by them as a contributor. I never received a response.
Fred
Posted by: Fred
at
May 30, 2007 9:55 AM [link]
here are some more china data points....
Just seven days ago, the finance ministry and the State Administration of Taxation took the unusual step of publicly denying that they had any plans to change the tax on stock trading.
stocks have risen another 7 percent during this period
one point at the day 200 from 300 stocks of the csi 300 were limit down (10%)!
it will interesting to see how the markets will follow up tomorrow
hi SiO2 & bullion
here is an excellent response on the short selling piece from bloomberg yesterday
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/05/record-short-sales-liquidity-bubbles.html
Posted by: jmf
at
May 30, 2007 10:00 AM [link]
Summer rally for PM provided there is not a major equity shakeout in general right? I am starting to see some folks backtrack on the idea that PM equities can buck the trend in that scenario. This sector seems to be inexorably linked to the markets in general for the most part.
I am preparing a list of some profits to take off the table, Oil and PM both, the questions now is just when to pull the trigger...
Right now markets are being MADE and although there are good macro and fundamental reasons for this or that to happen we have to remember what we are dealing with here; MUTANT MARKETS! :-)
Posted by: agaunv
at
May 30, 2007 10:01 AM [link]
hi SiO2 & bullion
mish has an excellent response on the short selling piece from bloomberg yesterday.
i´m not able to post links. when you google mish it is the first link.
worth the read and quite a contrast.....
Posted by: jmf
at
May 30, 2007 10:02 AM [link]
IBKR:
Feeling the pain on IBKR today. Down another 10%.
Just wondering where it is headed.
BMD:
Glad to see it coming back to my purchase price.
Posted by: JogyP
at
May 30, 2007 10:03 AM [link]
Chris,
I should add that one of his arguments against KRY is that it doesn't operate at a profit. Not surprising in that it isn't mining its biggest asset. Disclosure: I'm long KRY.
Fred
Posted by: Fred
at
May 30, 2007 10:03 AM [link]
Fred,
That may be true but my point is, there's interesting food for thought in the article.
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 30, 2007 10:06 AM [link]
Gold -
Just to reply to Kaimu that yesterday asked who is buying the gold sold by European Cetral Banks: I don't know. But here I found an article http://tinyurl.com/2vgecn If the data are correct, now a lot of gold is in private hands, and no more in the Central Banks. In spite of that, Central Bank can still sell a lot, and hurt the "private hands" for a long while.
The data you can find here about junior gold explorers are VERY interesting: http://www.resourcestockguide.com/home_page.php?drc=0&hpc=15
- Coal -
Any suggestion about how investing in the coal business? It seems to me that's becoming again a big energy resource. China is now a net importer. http://tinyurl.com/3cw7hr I know the German company RWE, but it has been growing already a lot. http://de.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RWE.DE&t=1y
Posted by: Lelik
at
May 30, 2007 10:06 AM [link]
Hi...Bill;
Thanx once again for opening a window on these behind the scenes activities and making us CONTEMPLATE why certain market machinations are happening....There are too many holes in the dyke.... They cannot plug all of them as hard as they try...
Coiled spring is right!!!......When the spring snaps... look out....PMs will skyrocket....
As 2nd_ave says...
"Don't get shaken out"....!!!!
Cheers........Bick
Posted by: DB
at
May 30, 2007 10:07 AM [link]
Correction on my comment:
Wall street Analyst's (stock ratings) are more closely correlated to interest rates than to stock performance. The recent increase in ratings, points to an icresease in interest rates.
Posted by: Will Rahal
at
May 30, 2007 10:09 AM [link]
Don Coxe's latest webcast is a very interesting listen about the inflation of food and how it has gone relatively unnoticed. However, in looking at the food production stocks it seems like they have had quite the bull run themselves in '07. Perhaps that is just following the market. It is a 30-minute listen but well worth it if you have the time.
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0001/code/eventframe.asp
Anyone have any thoughts or comments? Smithfield Foods (SFD) was the example he used.
Posted by: chas
at
May 30, 2007 10:10 AM [link]
The fact that China is trying to cool speculation in the market has nothing to do with its plans for growth. Oil and commodities are still good long-term plays.
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 30, 2007 10:12 AM [link]
Did you ride that 18% pop this AM in BMD 2nd? I hope so. Whacky. Up 18 and down to 3. Some mover was moving something....great big buy button. Then someone broke out their even bigger sell button. Gotta love the battle of the buttons.
Hope you are feeling good today Bill. Funny how "friends" are, eh? It's nice that they tend to sort themselves out over time. Disappointing, but we do our best with what we are given.
Posted by: Craig
at
May 30, 2007 10:25 AM [link]
I remember the many fawning articles about Paulson's patriotism in taking a huge paycut to become Sec. of Treasury. Far fewer reports on the tax breaks he got (no tax on sales of owned equities) nor mention the ability to diversify holdings (largely concentrated in Goldman stock) - politically impossible while he headed Goldman.
Homebuilder Pulte to Cut About 16 Percent of Work Force, About 1,900 Jobs in Restructuring.
Pulte said it expects to take pretax charges of $40 million to $50 million for the restructuring, mostly in the second quarter of 2007.
http://tinyurl.com/277w4e
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 30, 2007 10:31 AM [link]
-Monetary inflation-
Thanks Bill for opening my eyes every day a little more!
I have a question for anybody who can help.
Yesterday I wrote about the interview of an important money manager suggesting to be long on emerging market currencies and it makes sense. But aren't they inflated too with too much printing?
After all if in Russia and China (and other emerging economies) it's so difficult or impossible to handle foreign currencies, I guess that the state/private companies getting money for their exports (resources or products) will change the foreign currencies into local currencies. And China (and Russia) are printing money like hell to change these USD/EUR, just to keep their currencies from appreciating too much. And the inflation there is showing this. So, when the game will be over (and if?) maybe there will be also many tons of paper money in the emerging markets, too. So, considering the monetary inflation, real estate and commodities will never be a bed investment or I'm wrong about anything?
Posted by: Lelik
at
May 30, 2007 10:34 AM [link]
A few months back, around the time of the Goldman bonus bonanza, I was out with a good friend. It turns out his wife is a risk analyst at Goldman. His take on the ascension of GS?
1. They win because they have superior technology. According to his wife, who came to GS from another HB&B, using the GS tools was like moving from model T to an F16 or something like that.
2. GS has very strong Chinese walls preventing inappropriate information flow.
3. On Paulson taking over, "GS gas a very strong history of public service."
Number 1 I had no answer to.
Number 2 I don't believe, but my opinion was even if it's true, when information DOES come out, well, the guys paid to sit right outside the walls and watch for the signs will always have a leg up on everyone else. I have no doubt that public info released by GS gets to GS traders first, simply because they are more attuned to reading the smoke signals. But I don't believe those walls exist at the important levels.
My answer to number 3 was "If it's public service, why did he need a $140 million tax break to take the job." He had no answer to that beyond a wry laugh.
This backs up Bill's statement that HB&B employees are mostly very bright, honest people (My friends fall into both categories) used to reach corrupt goals.
Finally, it's not only the US that has a problem.
From todays NY Sun:
Italians Grumble That Goldman Sachs Is, in Effect, Running Their Country
By AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD
The Daily Telegraph
May 30, 2007
Italians grumble that Goldman Sachs runs their country, much as the Jesuits ran countries during the Counter-Reformation.
Prime Minister Romano Prodi is an ex- Goldman Sachs man, as are the central bank president, Mario Draghi, and the deputy treasury chief, Massimo Tononi.
[From a story about GS role in a recent scandal in Italy]
It's Goldman's world. We all just pay rent on everything.
Mike
NYC
Posted by: MikeNYC
at
May 30, 2007 10:48 AM [link]
Craig-Re BMD, I'm following the market, but now have a "Chinese wall" between what I see and what I allow myself to do. BMD is a play on oil going high enough to allow Canadian producers to begin extracting the billion barrels sitting in the Alberta tar sands. What if BMD hits 12 by 2008-what if it hits 90 by 2010-there's only one way I'm going to be in it at those levels.
I could say the same about XAU at 300 or KRY at 50. You just don't know when if/when it takes off, and you don't know how high it goes. Owning natural resources when financials tank just sounds like a good bet. IMHO.
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 30, 2007 10:55 AM [link]
Dear Fred,
Mr. Bane (surely the "bane" of anyone long kry) presents ideas that go far beyond the fact that the company is not profitable. (I have already noted Bane's arguments in an article that was run by Seeking Alpha.)
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 30, 2007 11:01 AM [link]
Re: my commentary about PCS this morning, "M" has sent me an important mail, as follows, for which I thank him:
"Four firms initiated coverage of MetroPCS (PCS) with a BUY. Those four are UBS, Bear Stearns, Wachovia and Banc of America Securities. That is a powerful group."
All four of these firms were underwriters of the IPO, (and as such) they can't upgrade/juice the stock until the quiet period ends.... 40 days after the ipo date is the first chance they get... Today was that day.
Bank in the tech mania, all you had to do was buy any ipo the 39th day after trading and the 40th day, 5 firms would come out with buy/strong buy ratings(with much fanfare from CNBC) and the stock would go up 10%... Unfortunately the little guy didn't know about the 40 day rule and all the buyers from the 39th day would dump their shares on the little guy watching cnbc the next day.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 30, 2007 11:09 AM [link]
shark, you have been relentlessly bearish on KRY. Are you short?
Posted by: number2son
at
May 30, 2007 11:12 AM [link]
KRY has become a tired and dull story and IMHO is longer worth anyone’s trading/investing dollars. There are much better ideas available than playing Russian roulette with Chavez. I would much rather go to the roulette wheel with TRE versus KRY.
Posted by: Telestar3d
at
May 30, 2007 11:14 AM [link]
Bill, you wrote:
"If I’m the head of that independent market regulator, trust me the options trades in Chinese stocks yesterday would be checked for links to the “Gold”man and the “G” Team.
Not only that, but I would publish the results, transparently, whether I found a link or found there was no link."... I guess integrity,fairness and independence are not very high on their job description list these days.
Posted by: HugoB
at
May 30, 2007 11:16 AM [link]
shark_attack,
i am not contending here. but anyone with a keyboard and internet connection can get an article published on seeking alpha. i really feel this has been beaten to death. why should we give jl bane floor time here too? i hope you don't take this comment the wrong way.
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 30, 2007 11:23 AM [link]
Chris,
KRY is a small holding for me. I've been tracking this company since the dawn of time. The trials and tribulations now are nothing compared to battle they went through to prove that they had the rights to the claim many many years ago. The I won't be a shareholder through the development of the mine. I'll sell when the buyout offers play through after they receive this permit or I'll kiss my chips goodbye if the permit is refused. KRY story is old and tired! There are more interesting plays in the PM market that I'm tracking/trading. Look at DMM and IPR as just two examples of recent days. Sprott is.
Fred
Posted by: Fred
at
May 30, 2007 11:25 AM [link]
I don't know about anyone else, but haven't we heard and read enough about KRY already? This is nothing but the same thing over and over again.
This is just a $4 stock like any other $4 stock.
It is speculative by it's very nature. So enough already. If you placed your bet then please, sit back and ride your bet, but repeating all this crap again will not change the outcome or reduce your anxiety.
Every single point of contention has been discussed and torn apart ad nauseum, every supporter praised and every opponent reduced to shreds. Still hasn't changed reality.
Couldn't we limit this discussion to the bazillions of blogs dedicated solely to KRY?
Posted by: Craig
at
May 30, 2007 11:37 AM [link]
Bill - Here is a short article on new legislation that puts even more power in Gov hands and indirectly might really screw up profits through labor problems. Some issues that come to mind are:
- Will workers be permitted to continue to work even if the Gov bureaucratic mill breaks down?
- How long will the line for registering - can we do it on a lunch break?
- Is there a difference in procedural requirements for contract, salary, or wage employees? How about for Chairmen of the Board's:
- Are Gov employees, Congressmen, the President, excluded?
- Will "Rosie" be able to get a job? How about the Dem Party leadership and staffers?
- And last of all, the ever rising question: "What have YOU done for the Party, lately?"
.....................................................................................................................
No jobs for US citizens without Homeland Security approval
Submitted by Canada IFP on Sat, 2007-05-26 18:00.Americas | United States | News
US citizens who apply for a job will need prior approval from Department of Homeland Security under the terms immigration bill passed by the Senate this week.
American Civil Liberties Union pointed out that the DHS's Employment Eligibility Verification System (EEVS) is error plagued and if the department makes a mistake in determining work eligibility, there will be virtually no way to challenge the error or recover lost wages due to the bill’s prohibitions on judicial review.
Even current employees will need to obtain eligibility approval from the DHS Within 60 days of the Immigration Reform Act of 2006 becoming law.
"EEVS would be a financial and bureaucratic nightmare for both businesses and workers," said Timothy Sparapani, ACLU Legislative Counsel. "Under this already flawed program no one would be able to work in the U.S. without DHS approval - creating a ‘No Work List’ similar to the government’s ‘No Fly List.’ We need immigration reform, but not at this cost."
The act allocates US$400 million for the implementation of the EEVS, but the Congressional Budgeting Office estimates the system to cost in excess of a billion dollars.
Posted by: spot
at
May 30, 2007 11:37 AM [link]
Thanks Craig,
I second your motion.
Fred
Posted by: Fred
at
May 30, 2007 11:43 AM [link]
LOL!
For every job? How about the self employed?
Shadow/black market/cash/drug economy?
We already have a huge pool of uncounted workers. how will they know?
This falls under the "too dumb to contemplate" category. Like everything else they do.
Impossible to implement, impossible to police or enforce. Impossibly stupid.
Posted by: Craig
at
May 30, 2007 11:49 AM [link]
chas
I think I've posted some thoughts on food inflation over the past few months. I've been following SFD, and with the drop this morning, I picked up some. This isn't a day trade, but I think they'll report better over the next six months IMO.
Posted by: Seamus
at
May 30, 2007 12:00 PM [link]
Hey Guys,
Sorry to have disturbed you guys with unnecessary KRY discussion. I am not short.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 30, 2007 12:16 PM [link]
wynn chart. Some have been following the casinos.
For an intermediate position, this looks like to have good risk reward. Can't say the same for lvs....which is not good for sector support. Anyway I went long this morn.
Posted by: jasper
at
May 30, 2007 12:26 PM [link]
Hi Bill,
You used to occasionally provide street research here but I understand that you stopped doing so for permission reasons. Any chance of research returning from any firms? I'm looking for some recent income trust research.
Posted by: SC67
at
May 30, 2007 12:39 PM [link]
http://tinyurl.com/ynslfa
wynn chart. Some have been following the casinos.
For an intermediate position, this looks like to have good risk reward. Can't say the same for lvs....which is not good for sector support. Anyway I went long this morn.
had its url posted but keep getting locked out
Posted by: jasper
at
May 30, 2007 12:39 PM [link]
Canaccord Adams out with a report looking at the seasonality issue. They looked at the return for the S&P TSX and its sectors from their lows in May, June, or July to their highs in August, going back to 1988. They found in this period that commodities gave stellar performance when compared to the rest of the TSX. The average S&P/TSX sector was up 8.9%, but metals & minerals +15.5%, Golds +17.6%, & Oil & Gas +13.5%. In the Oil & Gas sector, the O&G services were the standout with an average return of 20.3% compared to the O&G average of 13.5%. They then looked at the percentage of times the sector return was above 10%, and the return when the sector was up over 10%. 63% of those years the Metals & Minerals were up over 10%, and in those years the average return was 21%. For the Golds, they were up over 10% in 79% of the years for a return of 21%, and for the Oil & Gas services, they were up over 10% 77% of the years for a return of 25%.
"In sum, if we are right about an overall market correction in the late summer / early fall and we experience a commodities run from the early spring lows, then we are hopeful of seeing healthy gains in this part of the portfolio before any general sell-off." Canaccord Adams Daily Letter May 29 2007.
Posted by: bobj
at
May 30, 2007 12:42 PM [link]
SC67 re Wall Street research,
As soon as I can re-organize TraderWizard.com, I intend to use a reader registration system there. Those who agree to receive free research for the purpose of discussion on my blog, and who commit to not reproducing it elsewhere on the Web, will be able to download copies. I will share that information within a community like it is shared today throughout Wall Street. But I will not reproduce it in a public blog.
I came to that conclusion, not because there were two isolated cases of Wall Street firms requiring that I stop offering public downloads, but after I decided to try, in my own way, to channel the Blogosphere in a certain direction.
Content providers have the right to publish information for consideration and discussion, and the people who receive it have the right to consider and discuss it within their own community.
By openly providing links, I was providing that material to the global community, and that I now think in retrospect was wrong.
There are so many older people who read this blog who are interested in income trusts that I will start to gather a list called the Cara 100 Income Instruments, some of which will be Funds, including mutual funds and ETF's. I will go through all the available securities industry research to cull the names that analysts opine are reasonably sound holdings. I'll try to complete that project by October 1. I know it is important to many of you.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 30, 2007 1:23 PM [link]
No worries Shark! AAMOF, I want everyone that invested in the miner that will remain unnamed to make a killing and retire filthy rich, hopefully while remembering how they got there.
I wonder though if there aren't miners with similar upsides with far less risk? No doubt volatility is enticing for traders, but there are plenty domestic/North American plays that are solid investments with local government participation and approval, proven reserves and respected experienced management. Why would I want to risk capital on the decision of a dictatorial government when a similar "arbitrage" could be made with far less risk?
I don't know.....
Posted by: Craig
at
May 30, 2007 1:29 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
CONTINUUM RESOURCES - CNU.V CUUEF.PK
Up on some good drill results ... Currently up 12% on nearing 3.5mil volume. Sometimes with juniors you cannot depend exclusively on the RSI technicals, seems as if great drill results trumps RSI every time. Visa versa as well in terms of "sudden" unknowns like a Chavez factor! I have missed some significant rallies before waiting for a lower price!
CNU drill results ...
Link: http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/070530/e_continuum_drillprog.html?.v=1
Posted by: kaimu
at
May 30, 2007 1:37 PM [link]
"There are so many older people who read this blog who are interested in income trusts. . ."
Whoa, that hurt! lol
Posted by: bobj
at
May 30, 2007 2:27 PM [link]
UXG dancing with mr Fib 23.6% from April 16th $6.85 usd?
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 30, 2007 2:41 PM [link]
bobj,
I laughed to myself when I wrote that. But, frankly, when I received over 200 letters regarding suggestions for the website style changes under discussion, there were oh so many of you who complained of "old eyes". After reading these letters, I started to think maybe I have two main readership bases, one under 30 and the other from 60 to 90+ (LOL).
And maybe I encourage the latter with all my chat about health issues!
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 30, 2007 2:42 PM [link]
Kaimu -
Drill results may trump RSI, but how are the odds for anticipating whether drill results will be good or bad? In your experience, does knowledge there is serious, honest management and verification of a generally well-run company tilt the odds towards good drill results?
re KRI.TO
Daily RSI down close to 30.
I just listened to an interview with jay Taylor, he said CIBC just set a price target on uranium of $140/lb. this year, $160/lb in '08.
He cited the large number of nuclear reactors being built worldwide: China, India, etc. noting a large increase in demand (35% uranium currently coming from dissasembled soviet weapons).
I'm wondering anyone's thoughts if this may be a good entry point for KRI.TO (Khan Resources), close to $4.20. or any other uranium co's that might be worth a gander.
Posted by: Eric
at
May 30, 2007 3:23 PM [link]
Bill,
Maybe I misunderstood, but the China stamp tax news was on the wires around 1pm yesterday. Seen in the FXI volume and so the Cara china stocks. We all had the tip to do as we wished on our markets.
"...China stocks took a hit BEFORE the stamp tax assessment knocked the shanghai Composite down about -6.5 pct
That’s right, look at the loser’s list. Of the Chinese Cara 100, there are CHL, CHA, CEO and PTR. I have 4 large cap Chinese stocks in the Cara 100. Yesterday, before today’s broad market smash in China, these four are in the top 17 C100 losers.
I have been around enough to know this stuff does not happen by accident. Friends & Family were tipped. I’m wondering how many new put options were put on to these stocks yesterday"
Posted by: DJIMSTOCKS
at
May 30, 2007 3:33 PM [link]
Wow. Watching the Dow close. look at that strength. its like watching the price of gas change at the pump. maybe my pizza guy was right, here comes 14,000
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 30, 2007 3:37 PM [link]
To All:
I thought I would take some time out from watching my WHR Puts (ugly) and do something more constructive by following BC's suggestion that we all ought to be making our views known to our elected officials. So, with apologies regarding its length and the liberties I took from BC's comments this AM, the following is a letter I am sending to my Maine US Senators.
Senator:
Yesterday we learned of the intention to install Goldman Sachs Vice-Chairman Robert Zoellick in the position of the president of the World Bank. One could have presumed that the next appointee of President Bush to head the World Bank would be a person from an organization to whom he owed a substantial amount of political capital. OK, fair enough; the World Bank presidency is, after all, a political position. However, the White House's egregious dance to the Goldman Sach’s drumbeat, has reached a level of unabashed and dangerous pandering.
Some facts:
In 2003 when former NYSE CEO Richard Grasso was forced to resign because of his huge back-room compensation deal that bumped the total of his “reasonable pay” to $139.5 million, the then Goldman Sachs president and chief operating officer at the time, John Thain, was offered the NYSE’s permanent CEO’s job. He had also been an advisor to the Fed’s International Capital Markets Advisory Committee. Thain then helped to complete the reverse take-over of the NYSE by Goldman Sachs'-controlled Archipelago on March 7, 2006.
Henry Paulson, the Goldman Sachs chairman and CEO was nominated to the position of Treasury Secretary by the President on May 30, 2006, confirmed by the Senate on June 30 and sworn in on July 10, 2006.
In November 2006, William Dudley, 10 years the chief US economist for Goldman Sachs was inserted at the Federal Reserve Bank to oversee all open market trading operations of the FOMC, a position that was confirmed by the Fed executive on Jan 30-31, 2007.
Goldman Sachs’ alumna have ascended to high rank in the US Treasury, the Fed, the New York Stock Exchange and, now, the World Bank – all since March 7, 2006.
Given the current state of the financial markets, there are some who may sniff a malodorous wind in the elevator which artificially pumps up our financial markets by printing more money, by not regulating hedge funds, by smoke & mirror government financial reporting, etc., to the eventual detriment of the American economy. The so-called sub-prime mortgage debacle is just a whiff of what will eventually come to your home and mine to roost.
Corporations using their cash to buy back their own shares instead of investing in plant, equipment and people does not bode well for future US competitiveness; a looming "correction" in the US financial markets ("correcting" along with them hundreds of millions of IRA and 401(k) plan retirement assets) can severely exacerbate our Social Security problem; and the ever-growing probability of MUCH higher inflation (you don't really believe the 1-2% figures, do you?) will impact the poor much more than you or me.
However, I suspect that the large banks and broker-dealers, hedge funds, and investment banking consultants will have slurped their fill from the money reservoir long before the Senate, the House and the Regulators - much less the average American - begin to suspect something is amiss in Financial Wonderland. This concentration of the nation’s financial control in the hands of individuals having an allegiance to a single private company or industry is not what the US Founding Fathers had in mind.
I do not think this is a conspiracy; this is simply undue influence gone parabolic. I do think you have a responsibility to be not only aware of whose hands are on the levers of our monetary and fiscal policy but also to protect those Americans who do not have the financial means to have an friend in the gilded conference rooms during these important policy discussions. This is truly a situation worth your skepticism, outrage and investigation.
Note: I was made aware of some of the information above in the Bill Cara - Capital Markets and Social Equity blog (www.billcara.com), which is the Forbes Magazine Favorite the past two years and on its Best of the Web list for the other two years since Canadian investment industry veteran Bill Cara started blogging. Your staff advising you on financial market matters could gain some valuable insight from him and his active contributors.
Southwest Harbor, ME
Posted by: RobBoss
at
May 30, 2007 3:41 PM [link]
Eric. I think CIBC are bring a tad conservative given price is already at $125. Two auctions this week will give a clearer indication as to where price is going. Khan is in Mongolia and I have zero appetite. I presently have a position in my 4 favourites. Cameco, Paladin, SXR and Uramin. You may want to do some DD.
Posted by: Horatio
at
May 30, 2007 3:42 PM [link]
DJIMSTOCKS,
Maybe I ought to re-assess what I wrote. Apparently the news was released at midnight Beijing time (that's odd, isn't it), and the US equity market sold off a bit yesterday before recovering almost all those losses.
I was unavailable for most of the entire day. I didn't read the local (North American) news of this until this morning, which was after the Shanghai Composite had been hammered.
I picked up the following report from the Web, which announced the change, but overstated the US market reaction. The Dow fell maybe 75 pts over a period of 90 minutes before recovering strongly.
I still believe that if the public was intended to receive the news spin yesterday, we all would have.
/Bill
---------------------
China’s Ministry of Finance surprised the markets by announcing a rise on stamp tax on securities trading to three yuan per thousand yuan of share values. The statement was released at midnight trough (sic) the official Xinhua news agency but the full market impact should only be felt when the Chinese stock market opens tomorrow at 9:30AM local time. Yet, the consequences of the release were already seen in the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial erased earlier gains and fell almost 100 points from the intraday high once traders had a February 27th Déjà vu. In the last two decades, an increase in stamp duty has always caused a plunge in the Chinese stock market over the following weeks. Today’s surprise announcement on higher taxes for securities trading could be the beginning of the end for the Chinese stock market bubble and have serious implications for financial markets across the world.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 30, 2007 3:52 PM [link]
Market tell: GS up with most of the move in the last hour.
chas, nice recovery from a.m. by SFD. Long.
Posted by: Seamus
at
May 30, 2007 4:14 PM [link]
Daytraded the PALM announcement, 2.2% all because of CNBC. Thank you talking heads.
Wishing I had got in on SFD though instead.
Posted by: chas
at
May 30, 2007 4:17 PM [link]
.
To all those ceptics, this market told them a lesson today: this markaet is going to take off!
Thanks Paulson,you are now, probably the most influent man in the world.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Shangai index rises 10 % tomorrow...
Seamus -
In fairness, most of the indices went "sticks-up" in the same time frame. I was more impressed by the underlying message of this morning's recovery: China's craziness is not, and will no longer be, a risk factor to be discounted , just like housing, mortage woes, softening economy... Concurrently, a lot of the recent momentum plays were pushing strongly higher in a virtually flat market (BA/CAT/VZ/MA/POT/NILE).
If the birth/death moidel creates another 300k jobs out of thin air, we might witness the S&P blowing past ATH after tomorrow's window dressing by Friday's lunchtime.
In the meantime, I sit in amazement and shock at this market's move and my apparent misread of the near/medium term economic prospects. Not even a chance to cut my losing put positions on a mild pulback.
JML
Posted by: Jumble
at
May 30, 2007 4:52 PM [link]
Telecommunications on a tear--scroll to check that P & F chart tail!
Posted by: Seamus
at
May 30, 2007 4:52 PM [link]
Market news is attributing the late day rally to a favorable reading of the FOMC minutes.
M.-
Posted by: writersblock
at
May 30, 2007 4:59 PM [link]
RE: PALM
Reaction to the new product called the Foleo that Palm introduced today has not been good in the tech blogs I read.
The Foleo is billed as a "smartphone companion", but what it seems to be is a $500 laptop that doesn't have the functionality of a laptop. It is basically a 10" screen and full size keyboard that connects to your smartphone via Bluetooth. It's too dumb to be a laptop and too big to be a smartphone, effectively filling a nonexistent niche.
Posted by: bwl
at
May 30, 2007 5:06 PM [link]
RE: PALM
I agree, it looks worthless, or at least not worth $500. I took my money and ran. Seems like people just react to any new tech announcement positively because they don't understand it.
Posted by: chas
at
May 30, 2007 6:30 PM [link]
Kaimu
The drill results for Continuum are terrific, thanks for that one. Molycor also up 14%, but I can't find the news. Both great little speculations.
Thanks
Posted by: Rigdon
at
May 30, 2007 6:56 PM [link]
Bill,
How can we obtain a copy of your new book with your autograph?
Go Sens Go
Posted by: trader
at
May 30, 2007 7:57 PM [link]
lelik
Check Fording Coal on Toronto fdg.un
paying while it appreciates.
Posted by: mikede
at
May 30, 2007 10:09 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
Jock ... you have to take juniors on a case-by-case basis. There is no general rule of thumb on good drill results. What I do is gamble on those with the most "potential" for good drill results. Still there are no guarantees ... It is only common sense that you will have more risk with a "one-trick" pony, in other words, a junior with only one project on the books. A company like CNU has more than one with JVs. It is also less a risk to be drilling where there are historically prolific past producing mining areas, like CNU has an entire "mining district", not just one mine. I also mentioned a company PMI GOLD that is now drilling an existing open pit mine that was producing 144,000 AU ounces only four years ago, with average grades running 4-6g/ton AU in a highly prolific world famous gold belt. What are the odds they will find gold in a gold mine? Also Geologix(GIX) has multiple JVs with multiple drills running as well as ECU Silver has at least 8 drills running and one JV all the while producing silver and byproduct. Companies like those mentioned above will have less risk of drill results being negative.
Then there is the "perception" of those who misread results like what happened to GIX a few weeks ago where the share price tanked 40% in a couple hours then recouped those losses. Who could predict that? I read the same report yet saw nothing negative yet others did and sold fast and furious ...
I always recall going gold mining at Knotts Berry Farm in California in the 1960s as a kid. They had a fake river with fake miners(what miner from 1849 wore sneakers?)giving kids a pan, dipping it in and then dropping a few flakes of gold in the pan when the kid's not looking! WOW ... Hey look Dad I struck GOLD!!! YAHOOOOO ... I'M RICH !!! Well, that's about as risk free as mining gets! Plus there's even less risk when my Dad pays for it!
Posted by: kaimu
at
May 31, 2007 12:31 AM [link]
In response to the Goldman Sachs comments, I find it extremely worrying the appointments of former Goldman staffers in to key positions in the US government and governments around the world. They are in key positions to affect the Pound, Dollar and Euro. They also are the banker to media moguls. The webs go out everywhere. I’m just waiting for Alberto Gonzalez to resign and be replaced by a Goldman staffer. It’s unbelievable.
Posted by: RonAZ
at
May 31, 2007 1:29 AM [link]
RonAZ and others,
As a member of HB&B, one that deals in many areas of business (equity and debt underwriting, M&A, principal trading of every type of security, commodities, prime brokerage, advisory, wealth management, research, and on and on) against many strong competitors (Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Lehman Bros, Citigroup, Bank of America and on and on), how is it that Goldman Sachs has tied down every position of importance with the US Administration, not just with the current Bush Administration, but the former one (Republican) and with the Clinton Administration (Democrat) where Bob Rubin had been parachuted in from his job as Chair and CEO at Goldman Sachs? That influence now extends to John Thain's management control of the New York Stock Exchange. If anything, the optics are terrible.
I think there is an issue here that the media (bloggers and mainstreamers alike) must start to delve into. Something is not right.
Goldman Sachs happens to be a quality firm (it's a Cara 100 selection) and all of these people are successful in their own right, but I don't believe in coincidences, particularly in financial matters of this magnitude.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 31, 2007 5:56 AM [link]
New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine was unmentioned I believe. Former boss at Goldman Sachs in the age of LTCM heh.
http://biz.yahoo.com/usnews/070529/070527_4water.html?.v=1&.pf=personal-finance
Interesting to ponder.
Posted by: FirstConsul
at
May 31, 2007 10:32 AM [link]
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Dear Bill,
Hope you enjoyed yesterday more than the shareholders of Peru copper.
I appreciate your discussion of "Golden Slacks" and their undue political influence, but this is the promise of Republican politics: Namely, government "by and for the corporations" to quote the crazy guy who shouts.
Devils advocate says the deep-pocketed wankers at Goldman will do a "better job" than some theorhetical Washington "eggheads" with no real world exp, but like you I question the definition of "better job".
Finally, Seeking Alpha has a fantastic article on Crystallex this AM which I am too much of a technological moron to link to, but it asks many hard questions about this "process" and it's potential outcomes. It's pretty devastating. Have a nice day Bill, Chris.
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 30, 2007 9:32 AM [link]