- A view of the markets and economy -
Ray Dalio had a VERY interesting interview with Barron's.
Who is this guy? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bridgewater_Associates
I bet, we'd better listen to him!
The text of the interview is here, after few lines in Italian language:
http://www.cobraf.com/forumf/cool_r_show.asp?topic_id=2990&reply_id=79757
Some points from this interview:
- No risk of recession for now, until tight monetary policy will start
- Bond yields are going to go up
- Long commodities and emerging-market currencies
- Common mistake in the investments: it hasn't been good for me for the last 18 months and therefore I need to change what I'm doing. The real question is whether your judgment is sound or poor

hello from germany,

i agree.

the dalio/bridgewater interview is a must read!

here some news/headline from just the last 2 days

Singapore Air, Temasek May Buy 24% of China Eastern

OMX Shares Advance on Report Dubai May Outbid Nasdaq

Norsk Hydro preparing $30 bln bid for Alcan

Pogo sells Northrock to Abu Dhabi Energy

does anybody see similarities.....

every buyer is under the direct control of the state or the state is a major stakeholder (norsk over 40%).

the new force in the stock market!

Gold is moving up quickly! :)
Let's see if now when Bernanke gets up, gold will go down once more... It's anyway the USD that's going down.
Europe's central banks in the meanwhile do what they can, to help. Last week the sales were quite big again. The report is just out there.
I update once more the list of sales of Eurosystem Central Banks in millions of Eur.
25/05/2007 transaction -191
18/05/2007 transaction -280
11/05/2007 transaction -22
04/05/2007 transaction -186
27/04/2007 transaction -195
20/04/2007 transaction -281
13/04/2007 transaction -31
06/04/2007 transaction -189
30/03/2007 transaction -273
23/03/2007 transaction -189
16/03/2007 transaction -256
09/03/2007 transaction -9
02/03/2007 transaction -34
23/02/2007 transaction -37
16/02/2007 transaction -90
09/02/2007 transaction -70
02/02/2007 transaction -39
26/01/2007 transaction -36
19/01/2007 transaction -37
12/01/2007 transaction -28
05/01/2007 transaction -25
29/12/2006 transaction +36
22/12/2006 transaction -41
15/12/2006 transaction -410
08/12/2006 transaction -71
01/12/2006 transaction -120
24/11/2006 transaction -106
17/11/2006 transaction -97
10/11/2006 transaction -180
03/11/2006 transaction -101
27/10/2006 transaction -65
20/10/2006 transaction -112
13/10/2006 transaction -15
06/10/2006 transaction -40
29/09/2006 transaction -37
If the list is too long and disturb the blog, please tell me, and I'll stop. I think it's interesting to see the evolution of the sales.

For those with MU positions.

Didn’t see any posting on this over the weekend, but MU and AMD in takeover rumor mill.

No positions.

http://tinyurl.com/284gme

http://tinyurl.com/2cmyef

Case-Shiller reports that house prices have fallen for first time in 15 years:

See http://tinyurl.com/3629ex

Talk of a bottom remains precisely that: talk.

Regarding MU, on Friday I took advantage of the high option premium in the near contracts to open a hedged position. So far, so good.

NGAS...who was it that was posting buy recommendations here when it dropped to 6...it has moved from 6.90 to >8 on increased volume the past 5 days...

2nd,
That was me buying NGAS at 6. Buy I have sold since.

Lelik:

Not knowledgeble of what you are posting. What does transaction #191 mean? Is there a correlation to tons of GOLD?

C.Note, it means that in the week ending on May 25 the Central banks belonging to the Euro system sold gold worth 191.000.000 EUR (=USD 258.000.000). And it's a huge quantity, for sure keeping the gold spot prices low for now. As you can see, in the last few months the Europeran Central Banks sold a lot of gold, comparing the previous months. So, when (and if) they stop this high level of sales, for sure gold will start its bull run. I think.
The report of these sales is public, and it's here: http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/wfs/2007/html/index.en.html

Bill, just a little idea. If you won't take donations to help cover the costs of web hosting and such, how about a tip jar for charity? I get so much from the site, would like to give back and I'm sure many others feel similarly.

Lelik:

Wow! (I know that spells Mom upsidedown)

Thank you for this explanation. I've seen your posts on this event before and did not go further except to think it was positive for those long on PM's

Alright, Bill is unavailable today. Let's try to compile the information he usually posts.

Economic calendar:
Consumer confidence is released today, and Jobless claims and GDP on Thursday.
http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2007/month/05/day/29/daily/index.html

Spot PM's:
Gold Spot:
Gold is up +$4.6 (+0.70%), to $659.6
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s

Silver Spot:
Silver is up +$0.27 (+2.09%), to $13.17
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAGUSDO&v=s

Silver is up just over 2%, but SLW seems to be unable to break through the $10.96 level which is less than one percent for the day.

That comment approval thing is at it again. My post is 'waiting approval'.

Here is the file that is actually displaying the message. This might help the techie find the issue.

http://www.billcara.com/cgi-bin/mt-comments.cgi

kry????? has the goal post been moved back again or am i just too impatient re this stock a long time holder of this stock.

Lelik,

For the week of Dec 31 2004, they sold EUR 4.2 billion in gold and gold receivables, which is about 20X the current levels, yet it had no effect on price as far as I can tell.

Also, it is really difficult to find positive numbers (buys) as opposed to sales, so you wonder if the supply of gold is unlimited, or perhaps they are just like Fort Knox in terms of auditing.

SiO2/Lelik:

Could the transactions just be a circle between governments since you can't determine who buys that much gold?

:-
Ken Fisher et al....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ahMn3AUnD_CY&refer=home

What a great article on short selling!

SiO2: the 4,2 billion is not a sale transaction! It's just the updated revaluation of the gold stock value. The transaction in the last week of 2004 was just -10 millions Eur. That is the Euro Banks were selling less gold those days...

Dancing with the Drago

http://www.counterpunch.com/whitney05242007.html

ALOHA !!

EXCLUSIVE-Novartis Pension Funds to invest 4 pct in metals
Mon May 21, 2007 9:31AM EDT

LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) - Switzerland-based Novartis's (NOVN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research pension fund plans to invest four percent of its 14 billion Swiss francs ($11.37 billion) in precious metals, the manager of the pension fund told Reuters on Monday.

"What we want to do is to invest one percent, that is 140 million Swiss francs ($114.1 million), in gold, one percent in platinum, one percent in palladium and one percent in silver, that's more or less half a billion Swiss francs," Andre Ludin, head of portfolio management at drugmaker Novartis AG, told Reuters in a telephone interview.

((Reporting by Atul Prakash, editing by Michael Roddy; Reuters Messaging: atul.prakash.reuters.com@reuters.net; +44 (0) 20 7542 7744))

($1=1.227 Swiss Franc) Keywords: MARKETS PRECIOUS/FUND

© Reuters 2006. All rights reserved.

Hey....Kaimu;

Let's hope that many more Large funds do the

same thing!!!!!!

Cheers.......DB

Bullion,

Thanks for that link on short selling. Because you now hear everywhere that a correction is imminent, you really have to wonder.

Another eye opener for me was when I heard from an accountant of a large tax preparation company that 90% of people who buy options lose money. (i.e, am better than 90% - I don't think so...)

Well, Kaimu, if more large funds get in on the buying action, I have some PMs to sell them!

Lelik, thank you for the information.

Bullion, thanks for pointing out Ken Fisher's column, which I would have missed otherwise. Very interesting. Also, for the record, I've made very good money buying many of Fisher's company recommendations.

Kanatacrude, I second your idea of a charity tip jar. Maybe Bill could line up three to five of his favorites and those who are so inclined could contribute to the one he or she most prefers.

In this connection, I have a mentor who has been wonderfully helpful and will take nothing. Nada. Zero. Zilch. Finally I came up with something that works for both of us. I lent money to a struggling Third World entrepreneur whom my mentor selected via www.kiva.org. The money will be repaid; when it is, we'll repeat the process -- a wonderfully virtuous circle.

Hey Russty,

It's funny how much pain people are willing to endure to earn the "sure gain" of a stock going for 4 to 12. I don't know the the goalpost has been moved back, but anyone who tells you that he/she knows what's going on with this stock is totally full of shale. I'm sure when this is over most people will feel pretty dissatisfied.

Chris

ALOHA !!

SPECULATIVE BUY ...

PMI GOLD PMV.V PMVGF.PK

One of my positions that is looking much less riskier than it did a year ago. Currently drilling an existing open pit mine in Ghana, one of three past producing mines PMI owns that they are looking to restart! All mines were owned by an Australian mining company, Resolute Mining, but all three were closed in 2002 and 2003 due to low POG. Prior to closing all three mines were producing annually around 280,000 AU ounces. The existing mill was sold to Golden Star Resources(GSS:AMEX)to defray closing costs for $5milUSD. GSS, which operates in the exact same region in Ghana has around 300,000 AU ounce annual production and has been trading over $4USD per share this year, so you can the upside potential if their plan to restart all three mines falls into place. I believe it will ...

The Ghana government has been one of the most stable governments in Africa. While the South African government charges a 26% BEE participation rate the Ghana government only has a 10% rate. Further "country risk" is averted by two board/counsel members who have high appointments with the Ghana government. Mr. Ennison was a former advisor to the UN and the Ghana ambassador to Italy. Mr. Kesse was the Director of the Ghana Geological Survey and President of the Geological Society Of Africa. The CEO of PMI has been in Ghana for some 12 years now and has close ties to the government and many of management have extensive Africa and mining experience.

I do have a close relationship with the CEO, Doug MacQuarrie as a shareholder for a few years now and I know his brother who runs a fish farm here on the Big Island located over in Kona. You Canadians sure do get around!

I do know that PMI does have some long term investors that participate in private offerings based in Switzerland. Also just recently, within the past few weeks(see news release),a well known Canadian firm, Bolder Investment Partners, bought some 5.6mil shares of PMI in the $0.35C range.

Please view the May28(today)news release of current drilling at the Nkran Pit project.

Obviously I am a long term shareholder.

For due diligence go to the PMI website.
Link: http://www.pmiventures.com/s/Home.asp

Ray Dalio/Bridgewater: Top Holdings

GENERAL ELECTRIC CO
METHANEX CORP
MICROSOFT CORP
CAE INC
PFIZER INC
COCA COLA CO
JOHNSON & JOHNSON
PEPSICO INC
EXXON MOBIL CORP
WAL MART STORES INC
AMERICAN INTL GROUP INC
MERCK & CO INC
PETRO-CDA
ENCANA CORP
AXCAN PHARMA INC
JOHNSON CTLS INC
MCGRAW HILL COS INC
ORACLE CORP
DOMTAR CORP
HARLEY DAVIDSON INC

SiO2, About 18 years ago, in Markets Wizard’s, Jim Rogers stated that 85% of people who buy options lose money. Have not bought an option since then.

ALOHA !!

DB ... Obviously the ECB can't sell gold unless someone wants to buy it! Maybe some Pension Funds are getting smart at last!

Lelik ... Thanks for the ECB gold sales info! Too bad the "buyers" of the ECB gold are not disclosed in public! Why is that?

I have found that Wall Street analyst's correlate well with interest rates and not with stock performance. I have done some analysis and presented charts on the subject.
It seems to me that we will see the 10-yr treasury yields slightly above 5%.

Telestar3d, thanks for posting this information. I only own two of these top favorites and have buy orders in for two others. (I thought it was May. Isn't anyone going to go away?!)

Kaimu, I always enjoy your posts. You might like to know that (when I was very young and he was very old) I met Ludwig von Mises. I'm sure this bit information entitles me to a shipment of your wonderful orchids!

SiO2,

I read somewhere that 90% of options expire worthless. I would bet that is where the figure comes from. I doubt that 90% of people lose on them, but who knows.

chas, that is true, but this was a tax preparation guy talking about filing taxes.

Thanks Kaimu, for informing us all about little gems! I agree with GemmaStar, I'm afraid that gold still have some more pain to suffer before shining again. I think that the chart http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05989398201 shows some more room... downward. I went out of gold 2 weeks ago, and keeping just some gold shares. I'll wait some more signals before entering again, but I'm watching!
By the way, I agree with the one who discussed some days ago about trading also a speculative play like KRY (yes, that one!). If we look at the chart http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KRY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05989398201 we see that the great instruments that Bill is trying to teach here (RSI first of all) works well, too. So, maybe it is not so crazy.
By the way: I miss g034! I hope you're fine, and that you'll be able to give us the gift of your comments again. And big thanks to Bill, take care!
Ok, I'm off now. I promise I leave this blog for today, if not my wife will kill me...

SRS down big even though most builder stocks are flat or down. Is this dislocation mainly because of the Archstone deal?

Lelik:

How reliable are those Gold charts, if the indicators we look for signals are unduly influenced by the Central Bank selling?

testing. I've gotten the comment approval message all day.

Why would SLW go down an a day that spot silver moved up by 1.8%? When SLW has been tracking spot silver very very closely for a while?

GTT re SRS

SRS is tied to IYR. I'm not sure why you named "builder stocks" . There were some notable moves in individual REITS today.

I had to access the market through my phone today (Verizon web). We had a huge storm that knocked out power at about 7 p.m. EDT. It just came back on. Internet is working, but my TV cable (same cable though!) is uncooperative. If we miss the Sopranos tonight, we will be grumpy.

China sentences fficial to death

http://tinyurl.com/3ywqkg

Now that is what I call inforcement and protection of the public trust! Can you image if we did this to our entrusted officials?

Interactive Brokers' first-quarter profit falls
---
Interactive Brokers Group Inc., which priced its initial public offering earlier this month, late Tuesday reported first-quarter pro forma earnings of 31 cents a share, down from 34 cents a share for the same period of 2006.
---

Listned to the Conference call
1) Company lost aprx 25 million dollars in Market making business due to the recent corporate merger activity. (ie. Insider Trading Activity prior to corporate deals)

2)Company do not want to give guidance or talk about the current or future quarter.

These results were available as preliminary results in the prospectus, but the Market is still likely to have a negetive view tomorrow.

Kaimu:
Are you still holding yours?

Hi Bill,
It seems that we share similar medical conditions. I have a Scottish/Irish heritage. Light freckled skin. I also spent many years living on the beach front, surfing and the beach. No sunscreen. I have enough precancers that I have to use a product called Carac Cream. It is a chemotherapy cream that one applies to the face once a day for two to three weeks. It detects cancerous cells. It kills all of the pre cancers and they flake off shortly after you stop taking the cream. I do that every three years or so. Your skin feels new after the treatment. You might consider that option so that you do not have to wait for them to find you.
Another thing that I am doing now since my ENT doctor gave me samples and insisted that I use the product is Neilmed Sinus Rinse. You mix the saline solution with a packet and distilled water and pour it into the small plastic bottle provided and you put the spout up to one side of your nose and squeeze. It sends a high volumn of the saline mixture up one side of the nostril and travels around and out the other side of the other nostril. It helps with minimizing sinus infections by keeping your nose free of irritating substances and bacteria.
I blog this to you rather than email since others may have allergies or skin cancers/pre cancers. That Carac Cream takes 5+ years off of one face. Kind of like a face peel. stk

Every conversation about gold in general and KRY in particular has crossed this board before during sell-offs in May '06, October '06, and January '07. Unless you think the bull cycle in commodities is officially over, then this sell-off will eventually reverse and go on to hit new highs. The new highs should surpass expectations, just as the lows with each sell off have as well. If you watch the price action too closely, you get shaken out going down and faked out going up. I think that's the whole game.

We're not really competing against other traders, are we? Market makers know where your stops are, and by inference where your pain threshold lies. They also read the same reports you do, and added to the limit/short prices they see, have a good idea what your short-term and long-term target prices are. They will somehow exceed both during each swing, and have a great time building momentum in both directions.

Wow, how about those Asia markets, where's this headed tomorrow?

It is interesting how the Chinese Government is so transparent. The raise a trading tax so as to create a slowdown in their stock market. Here it is traders, now tank the market.

Stocks plunge in China after investor tax.

http://tinyurl.com/yqonqu

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a9bULOlTIxco&refer=us

Rate Hike Fears drag down TSX
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/business/story.html?id=497b0127-b852-4eda-8a5d-5c539ee9ffc8

:-/

Gold stocks are goig nowhere until the 292 level in $HUI is tested.

Why 292, some Fib retrace level?

Respectfully,
Steve

agaunv:

Try a weekly chart of closing prices, on a 3 year time frame (for instance in Stockcharts.com.....)

Thanks Bullion, I see where you are coming from Steve.