Gasoline Humor / Cartoons :-)

German Business Monitor / Capital Spending, Hiring…… / Chart

It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World / Duffy

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

weather in germany is also excellent!

Gasoline Humor / Cartoons :-)

German Business Monitor / Capital Spending, Hiring…… / Chart

It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World / Duffy

please click on my initials "jmf"

weather in germany is also excellent!

Under the "There oughta be a law - or at least regulation/oversight - category, there is an
interesting rant by Phil Davis on NYMEX oil trader activity and the price-at-the-pump for us non-hydrogen car drivers.

http://philstockworld.com/

ABOARD USS JOHN C. STENNIS - Nine US warships carrying 17,000 personnel entered the Gulf on Wednesday in a show of force off Iran’s coast that navy officials said was the largest daytime assembly of ships since the 2003 Iraq war.

http://tinyurl.com/2x4vef

...
“If the Straits of Hormuz were to be closed or there were to be some conflict there, the shipping rates would go sky high,” Quinn said.

Good Morning Bill!
A few items for readers today. Insurance co's got a downgrade as did chemical co's. THose sectors may be under some pressure today.

Also WFMI. One of our fine community members posted a story about WFMI yesterday and a few days back.
I want to comment.

While it is obvious that same store sales slowed as noted in the story, the peice is really not written by someone that shops WFMI or that understands that particular market, which has no direct market comparison as presented in the story.

WFMI does not simply sell organic food, they sell a lifestyle. You cannot buy that lifestyle at Wal-Mart, Kroger or Safeway. You can find a small selection of natural and organic produce and some vitamins and even a frozen/refrigerated section at Kroger outlets like "Fred Meyer", but there is more to this than organic food.
Wal-Mart's food is a joke, organic or not and the others are only marginally better. Their selection sucks and they don't carry anything or do anything that motivates the WFMI shopper in any way. A silly *small* example? I'll give you my latest, but I have more upon request.
Buy a hummingbird feeder at WFMI. You know, the simple red ones with the bee guards. At WFMI and ALL other vendors the feeder comes with a screw-on perch. NOT Wal-Marts. WHY? They pressure the manufacturere to beat on price, NOT QUALITY, so you can't get the feeder with perch at Wal-Mart for the SAME price as you could get it elsewhere. Wal-Mart gives you less on all products where a corner can be cut. Just read the ingredients on those packages compared to major labels or major stores. You will be surprised.
This is true for all products sold at Wal-Mart. Buyer beware, those that shop on price alone are getting fleeced. Sound Familiar? Anyone here buying co's on price alone?

WFMI develops and carries products like organic cotton clothing (or other natural fibres), Seafood products harvested in a sustainable manner, and they push the other outlets to copy their products and procurement systems.

A better example is what can't be purchased at Safeway, Wal-Mart, Kroger, etc. Real woks (not the electric POS's), wheat grinders, full lines of specialty vitamins catering to various diets (vegan/vegetarian/lacto-ovo vegetarians, etc, etc. etc.)

No, regardless of what the story claimed, there isn't a simple comparison of WFMI to the other standard supermarkets, because they really aren't in the same category or market.

If I may thump my chest I am a founding member of a co-0p that was called Whole Foods...early 70's...which a few years later was bought by a highschool mate, hippie son of a prominent doctor, and turned into a small store front in an uptown Tulane University neighborhood. I used to bring glass jars in to get filled with olive oil and other commodities. The Austin based ceo is the one who then bought the store and took the concept to the level today. Ironically, I never bought stock shares. I am a quality shopper who appreciates frugality. Whole Foods, at the time, had prices much more elevated, on a relative basis, than even today. Affordability and likely competition seemed huge barriers, but I was absolutely wrong. Today, Whole Foods is the only store we shop at....though my wife runs a coop, for the past 8 or so years, in assoication with a distributor(UNFI) for Whole Foods....we get all our bulk food thru them. Craig's comments above strike me as spot on and Whole Food's everyday prices are markedly coming down in selected areas. They have an employee culture that will be hard to duplicate. UNFI...is a micro cap with a Forbes story that just came out, fwiw.

Just to go ahead with my yesterday's post.
Here it is the updated situation of gold sales from Eurosystem Central Banks. It seems that since last March they started selling a little more gold than usual. I don't know the future, but the pressure on gold price is high.
The data shows the transactions of gold in millions of Euro:
18/05/2007 transaction -280
11/05/2007 transaction -22
04/05/2007 transaction -186
27/04/2007 transaction -195
20/04/2007 transaction -281
13/04/2007 transaction -31
06/04/2007 transaction -189
30/03/2007 transaction -273
23/03/2007 transaction -189
16/03/2007 transaction -256
09/03/2007 transaction -9
02/03/2007 transaction -34
23/02/2007 transaction -37
16/02/2007 transaction -90
09/02/2007 transaction -70
02/02/2007 transaction -39
26/01/2007 transaction -36
19/01/2007 transaction -37
12/01/2007 transaction -28
05/01/2007 transaction -25
29/12/2006 transaction +36
22/12/2006 transaction -41
15/12/2006 transaction -410
08/12/2006 transaction -71
01/12/2006 transaction -120
24/11/2006 transaction -106
17/11/2006 transaction -97
10/11/2006 transaction -180
03/11/2006 transaction -101
27/10/2006 transaction -65
20/10/2006 transaction -112
13/10/2006 transaction -15
06/10/2006 transaction -40
29/10/2006 transaction -37

Is it my imagination, or is there a little stop-gunning going on on a low volume day ...

Maggie

Interesting action on UXG with the spot price higher and UXG lower.

In UK The government is to push ahead with proposals to build a new generation of commercially-built nuclear power stations.I purchased Vane Minerals yesterday,today SP has reacted well.(Thanks Rob d after posting this miner suggestion to me 18 May)

Valgold out with good drilling results today

Mornin' Bill!

KRY under some pressure this morning. When's the permit coming? "Ennnnnny day now...........Ennnnny day now..........."

Chris

SPX is approaching the all time intrday high of 1553.11, momentum is waning and diverging against price, and Joe Public is being baited into the market by the private equity take outs. Interest rates have been rising steadily over the past few weeks and will eventuallly compete for investor money. The five day trin is very overbought (five day moving average of the Arms index is overbought with readings under 4)and the RSI's in all time frames are nearing or over 80. Momentum high according to my system was April 20 with the SPX around 1480. MACD is also about to cross to the downside on the next sell-off. Sure the market could go higher, but I would move up and tighten stops if one wants to play the upside. Would imagine a distribution range begins to form over the next few months at this elevated level before the gnomes pull the rug out from under us in the autumn.

hey john, all i did was give a link, no credit necessary:) glad you made something. here's another one:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=32152

sign up for their daily email. sometimes you get some good info.

It's agreed that there is a lot of downward pressure by central banks and from other sources right now. Is this pressure working to create a short term downward trend for the PM's? And how long can they keep the pressure up?

I'm sure we can reverse engineer the transactions by the spanish central bank to determine how much gold they still have.

-Quentusrex

ALOHA !!

Yes, the pressure is on gold and silver. Goldman Suchs has been pressuring gold down on the TOCOM by increasing their net short position over the past few days. In case you missed my GLD missive on the last WIR you can also count on GLD to sell gold. I thought the reason all you GLD and SLV investors bought was to hedge against a US Dollar decline. Now you are trading against yourself! Its called being "duped"! To get all the details go to the last WIR.

GLD sells off near 7% of gold assets while the share price stays at $65USD. What would happen if GE sold off 7% of their factories? I mean would you pay the same price for a 2bedroom condo as a 3bedroom condo? If you found out your local gas station was selling only 3qts instead of one gallon would you still buy there? Why is it okay for GLD to sell 32 tons of gold and still charge $65USD to buy in? It is obvious that "tracking" the POG has nothing to do with owning gold assets! GLD is a scam ... I wonder if SLV is? Hummmmmmm???? I'll have to think long and hard on that "complex" question!

How can you hedge against a US Dollar decline or any other "fiat" currency by giving all your gold to HB&B? HB&B owns your "hedge"!

Kaimu, thanks for your always interesting information and thoughts!
I'd suggest to read this too: http://www.24hgold.com/24hpmdata/articles/230520070143752.htm
It's about silver, COT, BMO-Nymex affair on gas bets, and hedging future productions of metals.

Bill & Co.,

Can anybody comment on Valgold's drill results?

http://tinyurl.com/2lheko

I'm relatively new to the game and don't really know how to read assay results. I thought it was interesting though that the stock initially jumped over 9% to $0.71 on the news, but has since pulled back to $0.64 and is down 1.54% on the day. What's up with that? Also, if anybody has any links to how to actually read assay results it would be much appreciated. I searched on google to no avail.

TIA for your help.

Video of Jean Francois Tardiff's (Sprott Asset Management) Market Call appearance on BNN yesterday

And some interesting commodity charts

please click on my initials "Wolf Stone"

Huge volume in ECU Silver last few days with no change in price as financing is completed at C$2.30. Volume usually leads price...

Thanks rob d another one to watch,there are lots on AIM and resourceinvestor is useful.
Kaimu thought about what you said the other day about gold ETFs,I sold my Lyxor gold etf yesterday all gold I own is now in my possession and controlled by me only.

New owner of wfmi as of this morning. Nice to the see the enthusiastic comments by craig and jasper. That kind of sentiment is great capital for the company (and the stock) that doesn't show in the balance sheet.

For those of you who are interested in a low-risk junior silver play, take a look at US Silver (symbol USA on the Venture Exchange). It's a similar story to the Western Goldfields one where a big company could not manage the mine properly, costs got out of control, so they dumped it. You now have a small aggressive operator bringing costs down and working the mine hard to prove out reserves. They bought 3 mines in total from Coeur D'Alene which have produced over 200 million ounces of silver over the last 50 years and are in the process of drilling it out. They now have over 50 million ounces of silver discovered (counting proven, probable, measured and inferred) and lost of promising mineralization. They are a producing mine in the US with all permits, a 60 year tailing pond and are cash flow positive as of March. They project to be producing 4.3 million ounces per year by year end with cash costs of $5 per ounce, with another 1.5 million ounces by mid-2008. They have strong management, a lot of good potential for additional reserves. Market cap is about $240 million, so with $13 silver, cash flow will be $46 million. If this is give a Coeur D'alene type multiple of 10 times cash flow, you can easily see a double from here.

Take a look at us-silver.com for more info.

FMT/LEND...it would have taken 2 months to play out, and plenty of angst during that time...but well worth it...

UXG/KRY/SLW look good here...

FMT/LEND...it would have taken 2 months to play out, and plenty of angst during that time...but well worth it...

UXG/KRY/SLW look good here...

And a thank you to Bill from my wife, who made a great play on WFMI...

I should say thanks to Bill, et al...

Can't someone shut Greenspan up???

Stocks doing well today - until Greenspan pops up again, "Greenspan sees dramatic drop in Chinese stocks."

http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSL2361982820070523

This guy's like a bad dream that just won't go away!!!

bb- RE:USA.V

I own a chunk of USA and really like it and agree with all you say.

Their website is a bit "funky" but okay overall.
One analyst report, a good webcast presentation at the Denver Gold Group/Zurich and a corporate presentation worth looking at.
http://www.us-silver.com/

Anyone getting into the KRY here?

Bullish Technicals for Gold & Silver...

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7616.htm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-7615.htm

Craig,
I have had an order in on 3K @4.50 for two days. Just waiting for an opportunity. stk

Whats up with Valgold? It was up over 9 percent after the drill results were released. Now its down over 12 percent.

Here are the assays:
http://tinyurl.com/2lheko

Craig:
KRY: I waiting for it to come below 4.30.(I sold some at 4.85 last friday).
I am hoping/expecting that people who bought it over the last week expecting a permit announcement will be getting out soon.

WFMI: There is no question WFMI is a superb company and there is no comparison to WMT.
But IMO, other grocers are making enough of a dent in the earnings growth for WFMI. I am not short, just waiting for it to come out with a positive quarter.

Right now there is so much negetivity on the stock from reports like these:

Street.com report:

Looking at the price performance of WFMI's shares over the past 12 months, there is not much good news to report: the stock is down 39.57%, and it has underformed the S&P 500 Index. In addition, the company's earnings per share are lower today than the year-earlier quarter. Although its share price is down sharply from a year ago, do not assume that it can now be tagged as cheap and attractive.

HSBC:
Analyst Mark Husson says WFMI shares have traded between 27x to 60x EPS in
last five years... Notes most strong growth retailers trade in 20x-25x range...
While there potential for accretion from Wild Oats acq., likely strong store
openings in London, recent trends point to a weaker LT picture... Cuts $1.37 FY 07
(Sep) EPS est to $1.27, $1.45 FY 08 to $1.41... Believes WFMI is still great co., but
shares are over-valued... Looks for shares to trade at about 25x '08 EPS, in line
with most strong growth retailers... Cuts $52 target to $36.

Regarding WFMI:

With the typical US consumer being buried in debt and a probable recession headed our way, how many people are going to be able to afford the WFMI "lifestyle" in the future? I'm thinking not too many...

on WFMI:
That is the reason I stay away from any retailers now including WFMI. However what happens these days is that 1% of the population is doing much better financially while 90% are worse. Since I do not know exactly the relative exposure of WFMI to these consumer groups I prefer to stay on the sidelines for now.

VAlgold announced a private non brokered private placement any thoughts on how the little guy can buy into this.
ValGold Resources Ltd. Announces $2.94 Million Non-Brokered Private Placement
09:30 EDT Friday, May 18, 2007

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(CCNMatthews - May 18, 2007) - ValGold Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:VAL) ("ValGold") is pleased to announce that, subject to regulatory approval, it will carry out a non-brokered private placement of up to 8.4 million units (the "Units") at a price of $0.35 per Unit, for gross proceeds of up to $2,940,000.00. Each Unit is comprised of one common share in the capital of ValGold and one-half of one non-transferable share purchase warrant. Each whole share purchase warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one additional common share of ValGold for a period of 24 months at an exercise price of $0.50 per share for the first 12 months from the date of issue of the warrant and thereafter at an exercise price of $0.60 per share for the remaining 12-month period.

There are no finders' fees or commissions payable in relation to the private placement. All shares, warrants and any shares issued upon exercise of the warrants with respect to the above private placements are subject to a hold period and may not be traded for four months plus one day from the date of issuance.

Proceeds from the non-brokered private placement will be used to advance the exploration programs of the optioned mineral properties in Guyana and Venezuela, and for general working capital.

ValGold is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange under the trading symbol: VAL. For further information on ValGold and its portfolio of international projects, visit our website at www.valgold.com.

Found my way to the following excerpt via Leisa's blog-> and then to Martin Pring's site. After reading it, I'm pondering the possibility of putting 25% of my portfolio into a basket of stocks that would take off if/when gold/commodities take off, then walking away until it plays out...the basket might include a number of junior/mid-sized miners (eg, WGDF/GFI/SLW/GG) + GDX + a few oil/gas plays + a few speculative holdings (I would put BMD/KRY/GRZ in this category). I could be totally wrong, in which case the downside would reasonably be maybe a 12-15% hit to my total portfolio. If I'm right, the upside could be substantial. But in order to capitalize on this play, I would really have to close the door on following short-term movements in either gold prices or stock prices, as I would otherwise find myself cashing out way too early. I don't think I could stay away for 10 years, but 2010 sounds reasonable. I would be willing to bet that many unexpected fortunes are made when someone finds himself unable to touch an asset for an extended period of time (let's say you have a trust you can't touch for another 7 years, or maybe you are fortunate enough to begin serving a 10 year sentence in 1990 after foolishly putting all your money into CSCO...whatever):

Knowing Yourself Part 2

Patient Investing Usually Means Profitable Investing

In an article in the Burlington, Vermont, Free Press of March 5, 1991, Eric Hanson of Fraser Publishing quotes a study done by Jack Vander Vliet of Dean Witter, the brokerage house. The study assumed that a person put $2,000 into the stock market in each of the preceding 21 years, right at the market’s yearly high. Each contribution was left to grow and was never sold. Even though each purchase was made at the worst possible time, the fictitious portfolio, nevertheless, appreciated at a compound average rate of 11.6%. The seed capital of $42,000 would have grown to $180,000. This strategy would have worked principally because the market advanced significantly during this 21-year period, according to the study. Even so, it is important to recognize that this time frame also embraced the devastating 1973-1974 bear market, as well as, the 1987 crash. Anyone buying bonds between 1960 and 1980 using the same methodology would not have fared so well because bond prices were in a secular, or very long-term, decline.

The argument is not that you should blindly buy, hold for the long-term, and expect to prosper, because this just isn’t the case. No, the real point of the example is that if you enter an investment with an optimistic and soundly reasoned view, the chances are that it will be profitable. If you respond to every news item and price setback, you may or may not make money, but you will almost certainly fail to realize the profit potential of your idea. It is important to sit patiently with the investment-provided the underlying conditions have not changed-because then, your odds of success will be that much greater.

To quote from Mr. Hanson’s article, “The point is long-term planning. It is far more important to decide how much risk you want to take, how much money your are comfortable investing, and how those assets should be divided among stocks, bonds, real estate, etc., than it is to worry about what is going to scare the market tomorrow.” In other words, if you do your homework properly, just relax and let the markets do the rest.

I can cite some personal experiences to back this up. In the early 1980’s, I perceived, correctly as it turned out, that interest rates had reached a historical peak and that over the course of the next 10 years or so, bond prices would rally. I also knew, from studying the markets that this huge rally was unlikely to be a straight-line affair, but would be interrupted by some fairly important counter secular price moves lasting a year or more. Interest rates on government bonds were in the 11%-14% range at the time. Having done my homework, the next step was to purchase some bonds, which I did for both a personal account and a corporate pension fund that I was managing. Since the pension fund did not need the interest, was not subject to capital gains, and had a long-term profit objective, I purchased some zero coupon bonds. Regular government bonds were purchased for the personal account. Things began very well for both investments as interest rates did, in fact, decline.

After awhile, I began to study the economy and the technical position of the bond market a little closer and did not like what I saw based on a one-year outlook. This encouraged me to liquidate the bonds in the personal account. You can see that I had already broken one of the rules of investing, because I had originally estimate that some major corrections could be expected along the way. And, as it so often turns out, my shortsighted trading decision was wrong. Liquidation took place in the very early part of January 1986 at around a price of 87. By March, the market had reached 105. In the space of three months, the bond gained as much as it had in the previous 16 months. You can imagine the exasperation and frustration I felt as a result of this foolish mistake. The psychology of the situation was that I was expecting yields to fall even further in this “once-in-a-lifetime” bond bull market. In 1984, I was very happy that I had indeed “locked in” historically high double-digit yields, even though the first part of the decline from 15% to 11.5% had been missed. But now, I was actually out of a market that seemed destined to rally forever.

Frustration at this point drove me into the Australian bond market, where it was still possible to earn 13% on government-backed paper. Again, my homework was quite accurate and over the next few years, both the bonds and the currency rallied. It would have turned out to be an extremely profitable investment if I had the patience to stay with it. But, of course, I did not. Within a few weeks, both the bond price and the Australian dollar began to dip. I had also bought a substantial position and was not psychologically prepared for the twofold risk that was being undertaken. These were market and currency related. Australian bond prices declined and so did the Australian dollar-I lost heart and sold. During the ensuing five years, I made various forays back into the U.S. bond market based on my expectation for the secular or very long-term trend. While each of these expeditions was profitable, none came anywhere near realizing the potential of the overall price move.

The lesson in patience comes from a comparison of my performance in the personal account, as opposed to the pension account. You will remember that in 1984, the pension account purchased zero coupon bonds with the identical long-term objective as the personal one. The difference was that when I cane to liquidate the pension account, I found that the spread between the bid and ask price was considerable because the bonds were illiquid. This meant that if I was going to repurchase the bonds at a later date and was wrong; the cost of doing so would have been prohibitive. Consequently, it was the expense of getting in and out that forced me to have the patience to stick with the position. If I had lost total faith in the secular interest rate decline thesis that would have been another matter, for then, it would have paid to liquidate regardless of the cost. But my fears were always of a short-term nature and I could always justify getting out of a position in the personal account because of the ease and low cost of getting back in. What I did not realize was that the desire to reenter the market would fade rapidly once the price had moved above my point of liquidation.

I had read about the danger of losing your position in the middle of a trend in Edward LeFevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, but it wasn’t until I had gone through the process myself that the lesson began to sink in. The word “began” has been emphasized because it takes a long time for a learning experience to become a habit.

Excerpted from "Investment Psychology Explained"

My port positions are interesting. Gold miners did not sell off with rest of market which turned flat.

At 2pm ish I took double shorts on QQQQ and SPY.
Rarely do I break even using shorts/etfs....I feel smart for a few days and then I'm just glad that I had hard stops.

ALOHA !!

2nd_ave ... Thanks for the post regarding long term planning. I have to say I was always a hard-working guy even in my teens. I did what it took to survive through my 20s, but mostly travelled and lived the surfing life even partying with the "governator" in Malibu. In my 30's I started to get more serious about making some serious cash since my money tree went "bonzai" on me every year! I really did not wake up financially until I was around 35. Making long term plans 20-30 years out is a good idea for 20 somethings, but I found it distressing when pushing 40. I have found for myself that I have had to play "catch-up" because I was too busy having "fun" for some 20 years after high school! I won't go into my definition of "having fun" here ... I have caught up a lot(if thats possible)but it has taken almost every waking hour to do so. I find it even more of a struggle now in 2007 since I see cost of surviving(living)rising exponentially with no end in sight while earning capacity shrinks. A lot of us here on this blog are here because we are playing "catch-up" as well or we are trying to avoid the "catch-up" syndrome which in a way is still playing "catch-up"!! Anytime you try "catching up" it always involves more risk and in many instances more debt.

"Debt" ... the key missing part to the "Knowing Yourself Part 2" ... Many of us do not consider "debt" an investment like buying WFMI, but in many ways it is a much BIGGER investment than any stock portfolio. I think the importance of that will become more evident as the market and the economy here in the USA falls ever lower. The US government is struggling to meet debt obligations now and those obligations will only get BIGGER not smaller in the near future. Don't forget that most people in the USA are dependant on US government welfare checks even those who work at Lockheed and GE! Without US government contracts Lockheed and GE would crumble, especially their unions and pensioners. The crunch is on and "debt" is becoming the BIGGEST hurdle not only for the "liar loan" mortgagees and mortgagers, but also some of the most monumental and iconic US corporations. The US government is being overwhelmed by the avalanche of unpaid debt built up over the past few decades since Vietnam and the Cold War, now being magnified further into the stratosphere by Iraq, the War On Terror and the onslaught of baby-boomers.

I personally take "debt" more seriously than my portfolio of stocks. I strongly believe that if you have a house payment then you have no business being in the stock market casino. Many of you will disagree but that's just how I roll!

Make no mistake about it ... we are all in this position because of a corrupt monetary and banking system ... period! You are being forced into the stock market just like the Germans of the 1920s were ... SHOOOOSH ... its a secret!

Cunning Realist ...
"As Germany went down this road, a cruel dichotomy developed. At the same time a pensioner needed a stack of paper money to buy a cup of coffee, the stock market and the economy soared because of the massive liquidity.

Fergusson quotes from the letters of a private citizen:
Speculation on the stock exchange has spread to all ranks of the population and shares rise like air balloons to limitless heights. My banker congratulates me on every new rise, but he does not dispel the secret uneasiness which my growing wealth arouses in me...it already amounts to millions. If prices went up, people demanded not a stable purchasing power for the marks they had, but more marks to buy what they needed. More marks were printed, and more, and more.

From Adam Fergusson-When Money Dies (p.81)"

Uh, I can see I'm going to have to visit my friend Kaimu.....sounds like we're brothers from different mothers.

BTW, I worked for Weider Barbell when Arnie was their stallion. Guys like Arnie and Columbo would show in their custom clothing and they weren't even pumped up. I was the guy that delivered those "Beauty Breast" before and after photos to the retoucher.

Don't apologize Kaimu, it was a sign of the times. You are right though, everyone should pay for their house and eliminate debt.
HB&B can jam that interest rate to the moon whenever it strikes their fancy.

How much return do you have to have minus fees and taxes to outperform whatever interest they charge? A LOT!!! Pay it off kids!