GOLD / SPAIN / GREAT BRITAIN
Spain is selling all the reserves, gold included!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/05/16/cnspain16.xml
Maybe gold will get better now on...
Bill mentioned that the Japanese Stock Exchange could be the first to fall during the next major correction; what about adding the Ibex35 (Bolsa de Madrid) to this forecast? Spain enjoyed a boom in the real estate similar to the US and now it has also a big deficit.
In the meanwhile, also in Great Britain the consumers are going to face some big problems:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/05/05/cmdebt05.xml

EURO
Nicolas Sarkozy, the new French president, has already declared that Euro can't keep on growing.
And it seems he is a serious and tough guy.
Maybe there will be another trade war for currencies, besides US and China?

MICROCAPS
Companies listed by some portfolio managers, but unfortunately I don't have any data for these stocks.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/investing/personalfinance/chi-0705111915may13,0,2091495.story?coll=chi-businessyourmoney-hed

What is the current community opinion on IAG ? I have a small underwater position that I am not comfortable with due to both technicals and their recent parabolic increase in mining cost. Thinking about taking a loss and closing the position (not related to recent gold hurdles) but would like to here some opinions first.

Reg: IAG
Almost every junior minor who came out with results recenlty (NXG, GRS, IAG,..) had high costs and got knocked down in the next few days.

Here is a recent look at IAG
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/05/15/digging-into-iamgold.aspx

I am in the same boat as you with IAG, I plan to wait for the next pop in POG to unload it.

True, but you are going to want to watch GRS today after yesterdays rebound/momentum.

It finished very strong at the end of the session.

To Bill & your generous contributors:

I feel I benefit greatly from the market/trading overviews and insights I find here - while still learning to 'fish."

Thank you.

Being relatively new to trading, I am still struggling to get a handle on the Rube Goldberg-esque global economic/monetary cause and effect machine (or is it a spastic marionette).

To that end I stumbled upon a link in the Asian Times online to a two-part article entitled "The Naked Hegemon" written 2+ years ago by Andre Gunder Frank.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/others/naked-hegemon.html

After filtering out the political/social slant of the author (not unappreciated here), it appears to me - a novice student of markets - to be remarkably useful in interpreting the current mood/conditions.

Gold below it recent trend channel.
Are we headed towards 630?

IAG upgraded to outperform by RBC Capital Markets
Target=C$11 by Blackmont

Long IAG

Prof. Krassimir Petrov explaining Business Cycles
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2786446863132957274

goldcorp looks good here..

Brad Setser on the TIC data...

"The other story in the March data? The big rise in US purchases of foreign securities. US residents bought about $40b of foreign securities, including an usually large amount of foreign debt -- $32b."

"That is one reason for the dollar’s weakness."

"It also explains the weak total TIC flow number in March. The $100b in headline foreign purchases of US debt and equities is deceiving. Net inflows were a bit under $50b – less than the March current account deficit ($75b or so)"

"If sustained, that level of “diversification” by US residents implies rather large outflows – about $500b a year. To finance that level of outflows and its current account deficit, the US would need to attract about $1400b in inflows."

"That is a lot. It might imply the US would need a bigger credit line than even the People’s Bank of China is willing to provide. Financing the United States current account deficit is one thing. The current account deficit is the counterpart to China’s current account surplus (read export jobs). Financing capital flight (i.e. portfolio diversification) by US residents is another"

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/194459/

http://bp2.blogger.com/_eKH-tiSXFbc/RkrE0nPgbvI/AAAAAAAAAvU/5XiIxmbOms8/s1600-h/TIC.JPG

asking to get nailed...i don't know...going long PMs again: gg/slw

a little worried about the broad market

Not buying any miners until gold gets back in the uptrend channel.
(After reading half of the book - 'Come into my trading room')

JogyP, you can't be thinking like that when you're long gold ;)

Skrymir
thx for the tiny url comments on spyware alerts.

OT: petty point: not a fan of bold print everywhere.

2nd,
I use the -3.5 Bollinger Band to find bottoms or overshoots on stop runs. GG is at 22.40, AUY is at 12.76, SLW is at 10.19 all on the daily charts. stk

thank you, stk

2nd Ave:
I have been making too many impulse buying decisions recently.
Planning to get more organized, disciplined and paying more attention to technicals.

Still Long term long gold, short term unknown.

Technicals don't support buying now. (Thank you Jock)

Good Morning Folks;

Here is a link to an article about Richard Russell's change of heart.....

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Silberman/may162007.html

Fiat money and the Yen carry trade....

Excellent graphs...

Bill; Thanx for your comments concerning G's jockey....I find that comforting...

Cheers......DB

Cheers......

jock-i know even bill is forecasting a sharp correction in gold prices within the next couple of months, but i always like to go back to mcewen's outlook from last fall when zooming out to the big picture. 2-5K gold (with the bulk of the move coming in the last few months of the cycle) by 2009 is still a "reasonable" forecast when looking at historical trends for PM bull cycles. in that context, where do you think uxg/gg/slw/gfi will end up? it's gut-wrenching to sit through the corrections, but maybe that's the price you pay for the parabolic moves at the end. as they say, making money is never easy...and you are certainly working for it now...

Yes. Develop a method, approach or discipline. Then stick with it! (Or just peer into the MarkM KMart Knockoff Crystal Ball. Cloudy here today. :) )

http://www.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUSN1649083520070516

soros update - not a big deal, but at the end it says his fund is down 19% FOR THE QUARTER?!? can that be right?

2nd try

the rise of china is impacting colberts wish to buy a ferrari…..:-)

PIMCO/Gross investment outlook

Financing capital flight / Brad Setser

bubble world tour / india

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

A few who may be a tad too long should keep a weather eye on market breadth..."Real Money's" Divine Miss M is liking the prospects for a sag which will lead to a Memorial Day rally....

A 'green play' which I've followed for many months and which will start making bank deposits this Fall is UGTH. The company has gotten a push from Crowley's radio show and is consolidating just above the $2/share level.

I've cut my PM holdings back to a mini-miner SDRG, which hasn't suffered terribly during the recent price softness. I think by the 3Q07's report that the stock will emulate AUY's meteoric activity of the last 6-9 months.

"aedeagus" ??? Boy, you sure DO learn something new on Bill's blog every day!

WHR: While Wkly/Mo RSI(7)s are not quite at Bill's guideline <70, daily is at 53+

Anybody else see WHR Puts as compelling?

Long June Puts at 110

Completed the survey this morning.

It is maybe a petty request, but Bill could you consider putting a post on the main day's blog page that you have put another entry on the home page. I use Firefox and just leave billcara.com running on one of the tabs and come back many times a day and hit refresh. I don't go back to the home page until first thing next morning to start all over. Thanks, Bob

Good morning, Bill.

Looks like the fade may continue today. Sold JBX and ICE for a nice profit. I'll prolly look to reload on ICE if it withdraws its deal for BOT. Waiting for natural gas and PM stocks to slip lower.

Someone mentioned WHR as a short last week. Looks to be working well so far.

I trimmed back on all my holdings. Sold 1/2 my miners and got stopped out of MU (at a decent profit).

I think there is worse to come here for the metals and the market in general. I'm in capital preservation mode now.

But, damn, I wish that KRY permit would come already. ;)

That said, I really like a little Chinese stock -- PUDC -- and added a little more today.

bobj,

I do the exact same thing with one difference -- I also have the billcara.com RSS feed ( http://www.billcara.com/atom.xml ) running as a live bookmark in my bookmarks toolbar. That way I can click on that and see all the articles posted, which will show me if there is a new one. Of course, the other option is to scroll up to the top of the page once you've finished reading the new comments and see if there is a link to the "next" article.

I just thought I'd mention some other options there.

Jeff

GDX/etf has gone below 200ema...next stop is a 5% correction to recent lows or 3.1% to a 3.5 st dv bb. If those fail, the next lower low is 15% down from where this etf is now. A positive is that rsi/7/daily is overbought and historically has turned up. XME/broader miner etf is holding at 20ema. I'm not a trader but that's my outlook.

Almost all who post here are trading in and out. Taking a chance on more of a floor or waiting until there's a bounce off the floor. I still have my basket of miners. My exit strategy is at a failure to hold recent lows. Bill may hate to hear this, though, I keep looking to read his tea leaves.

Interested in others who are more swing traders, if that's the term, that those who look at a position as being more than a trade...and are still holding pm miners.

RobBoss, thank you for that articles link. I just started reading the first, which looks very interesting.

redclay-

I am looking for the bulls to pull this back by no more than 5% and then try to take it up again. Could be as little as three.

Chart specialists,
Interested in hearing your take on CTSH chart.
http://www.billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=CTSH&px=&wt=0

Jasper,
I'm a fundamental investor and prefer to pick winner stocks and ride them for years.
The past few weeks I've been beween contracts so I've watched and traded the markets in real-time. Alas, the past three days have been unkind. I've been averaging down and am now at my financial risk threshold (what I'm willinmg to put in gold). My basket of gold stocks includes majors, junior producers and junior explorers. I'll still have the majors two years from now so, the price drop hurts but doesn't change my outlook on the companies as investments. The junior producers will appreciate in value if they perform as businesses. I trust that I chose them well and will sell only if they don't deliver fundamentally. The junior explorers are lottery tickets without a draw date. Every one of them has "good mineralization" and "anomolies" and all that other good stuff in their stories. Is there an exporation company that doesn't have a good story? I am looking to scale back on my holdings of most of the explorers and not go back to them. Long-winded I know, but that's how one non-trader sees the gold world when times are tough.

Fred

JogyP, I'm no chart expert, but look at the weekly on CTSH and it's clear that it has broken a long-term uptrend.

If you like the fundamentals (I have no idea what they are) then you would do well to consider Bill's teachings on waiting for the stock to come into an accumulation zone.

Totally FWIW.

BTW, this market is NUTS! The only people making money are brokers.

JogyP-

Look at the down volume. Tells me they are not done selling this yet although it is getting "spiky". If I were to trade this just based on technicals I'd want to see some confirmation of buying interest.

CTSH - tech - outsourcing
since feb, lower highs & lower lows - sellers in control - support at 76, and at 72. i do not hold it, but it's on my watch list of 12 stocks.

other indian stocks - ifn has stopped going down. ibn is rallying. hdb is up/stable, as is wit - infy is sliding - also tech- outsourcing, pti - another tech - outsourcing has just rolled over, as did say, and ttm (autos)

so overall i would say indian techs are not very timely at the moment, althought other sectors are mixed.

bobj/bill

I do the same as bobj and just refresh the days page - when I refresh i read the new comments from my previous time stamp, and when i get to the bottom, I just hit [Home] to jump to the top and look at the Back/Main/Fwd links to see of there is a mid-day post. So, I don't think we need another way to check for a new post... my 2c... Tim

Let's run another one of those polls and see who can post the largest paper loss on PM's before throwing up or selling in a panic.

I notice that if it's listed on the NAS or it's related to PM's it's pulling back but if it's listed on the NYSE and on my own/watch list it's at least holding or a small gain on down days.

Co's like DHR, ATU.

As some wise person wrote, "The Bull is in the DOW". Dang if it isn't playing that way.

WHR AAPL

I am adding AAPL to my shorts today.
81/75/71. added this to portfolios at clearstation and bullpoo.com. Apple bears watching since it may be either taking a breather before moving higher or it may move lower due to stories out there of a less than honest management.

I shorted WHR in my clearstation.com portfolio on the 11th and am up 1.08% so far.

WHR 1.08% 05/11/07

Rob Boss

I read those articles about the dollar Hegemony last week. Really informative. Lots of complex info though, for a like me. Think I'll read them again and take some notes this time.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/others/naked-hegemon.html

Good...Day;

Here is a link to an article that provides more a

little more insight into Richard Russell's thinking...

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Silberman/may162007.html

Bill;

Thanx for the comments re Goldcorp's Jockey...

Gives me some comfort.....

Cheers........DB

ALOHA !!

Just read the latest Marc Farber interim update and he sees global stock markets in for a correction very soon. One idea he put out there was that the gambling sector in Maccau has slowed down due to the China and Singapore stock markets. Seems Asians who are gamblers prefer the "sure thing" of buying stocks since those markets are up some 50% to 100% over last year! This is the first analyst I have seen put stock market "casinos" in direct competition with Vegas "casinos"! Of course in both cases the "house" always wins otherwise why build a casino in the desert? HA!

Looking at MPEL today it looks like more delays, like KRY! Delays are never good for business or stock prices ...

JogyP:

I too am no expert - charts or otherwise - but I believe one would have to see positive movement of weekly/daily RSI(7)toward/beyond 30, confirmed by a rising Stoc, say above 50, with the beginnings of renewed accumulation. Sort of like how the chart looked in Nov 2005.

If you are looking for a bounce off the 50 day ema, then perhaps a shorter-term call (July 85s or Oct/90s) might be a way to play it. Otherwise, as many have said, let Mr. Market come to you.

2 other factors would bother me: the presumption of a NASAQ/tech-led major correction before this fall (ahem)and a sharp review of sector rotation in the 4 areas served by CTSH (Financial Services, Healthcare, Manufacturing and Retail.

nailed on gg/slw...and out...

on IAG

my 2 cents say tha IAG is one of the most frustrating contrary moving gold plays out there. However I hold, have held for 2 years, and gave up worrying about the day-to-day movements long ago.

a little zen patience with IAG, and the buyout move will come. It has plenty reserves and is too aggressive to be ignored by the tier 1 miners forever.

An interesting commentary on where the overall U.S. equity market might be headed from my adviser at UBS. His experience (30 years) suggests that the market does not peak until retail investors are in with both feet as they did, for example in the late 90's. His personal clients ($150M in assets) are apparently still sitting out with more than half in CD's, and treasuries.

Yes, PMs are down today, again. Is it my imagination or have the volumes really dropped?

Fred

"Metals prices were taking a dive Wednesday, as a new government report pointed to a robust industrial
sector and sent the dollar higher."

http://tinyurl.com/2ce4m6

I find this report hard to believe as the only driving force behind moving metals lower...

Thank you everyone for your perspectives on the CTSH chart. I am learning to use technical indicators more effectively. I thought I saw some signs of a short term bounce with in the price channel, but I was not sure.

All your comments helps me understand it better.

ToddL -

Dare I say "this time it's different" ... in the sense that retail investors were scared out of stocks in '00-'02, and are now being scared out of real-estate-speculation. Maybe they're becoming just plain scared, and will stay on the sidelines as the market rolls over ... but maybe NOT ... I think the only guide is to watch what actually happens through the charts ...

I agree with Jock, I'm taking a show me approach to the retail investor coming into the mkts. They learned a lot in 2000, if nothing more than how not to get fleeced at the top.

It's pretty hard for Little Red Ridinghood to miss HB&B Wolfs big teeth this time.

What's your take on spot gold here Bill?

Is this a pre BoJ shake out?

Fred,
Not long winded at all. It's nice to hear/see a fundie pt of view...of course, when it seems to justify my own view.

cnbc just gave a tease about increasing demand for gold.

HMY was on Bill's january list of juniors. Any comments on this one appreciated.

thanks for your post.

Hello to all in this great community.
Thanks for all your comments. Each comment to a varying degree gets me to evaluate how I am doing with my own portfolio. I really appreciate when someone says they are adding to a position and why. Even more desired when you sell a stock and why. I can buy for a variety of reasons. Not always good reasons. Selling on the other hand ....I don't sell when it’s going up and usually hang on too long. Southwest Airlines is my prime example of looking for a good spot to sell on the way down.
Bill thanks for all you do. Not that long ago when you said you needed to cut back your time invested in this blog, I felt anxious. From comments, others, as I do, use this blog as a bellwether of the day in the market. From your descriptions of the forthcoming changes, you have figured out a great way to pass some of the workload to others. Thanks for doing that and when you decide a way to charge us for it, I'll be there. Bill; please consider a back to the top button at the bottom of the comments. If you don't, you are still The Wiz
As to Jasper's comment about bold type....it seems to be only on Firefox which I use, not on IE which I only use to comment...long story not worth sharing
To Number2Son. Bill reminds us to wait for the market to bring the stock to us and how. Are you?
There's a couple of people saying "pullback"....,MarkM is one and I have found him to be almost prescient.

peace
Gray

Lelik (and friends)... When you post long url's in the comments, it creates a formatting issue for Firefox users. Please utilize tinyurl.com on large url's.
Many Thanks... Matt

Regarding Gold and miners, looks like now is the time week hands will be shaken loose. Testing 650 support today. Could easily drop to 630 range in next several sessions. Fundamentals have not changed. If Bill is wrong, then this third of my portfolio will be toast in 3-6 months. If he is right (as I believe) this move will be seen as the final shake-out before the 700 cap is lifted. If you are a day-trader, (I am not) have fun. Volatility is what you seek. If you are longer-term, hold tight and/or prepare to add to your position on the dip.

sorry for the type, "week" should be "weak"

CTSH... cannot see even one positive thing on the long side here. Too late to short as well.

Short-term oversold, maybe gets a bounce here in a day or so, but overall, I read that one as a head and shoulders with a descending neckline. Call the lower right neckline about 82. Peak of the head at 95 to right shoulder at 83 = 12, yields a target of 82 - 12 = 70.

Broken a 2-year trendline. Broken below its 50 and 200 DMA. Maybe even tries to pull back to that. To quote our favorite impressario I give it a triple Don't Buy.

IMF selling 400 tons of gold (1/8 of their stockpile) in the next few days:
http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7B0AE4FFCF-274C-43C3-BC54-ABCA5217DC20%7D)&language=EN

No worries Todd, I'm holding tight.

Fred, tap your guage, I think it's stuck.....
how's your air?

I was asked this same question by a UBS professional two weeks ago and I answered much the same way as Jock. It ain't gonna happen this time. No way John Q Public gets burned again trying to get in on the action at the top. Their portfolios have NOT recovered anything like full value from 2000. And one 47% drop is enough for their lifetime thank you very much. I think at the end of this thing the hedgies and institutions are going to be laying hot potato.

MarkM,

What John Q Public ? Are we referring to the US consumer with negative savings and up to their eyeballs in debt ? With falling home equity, maxed out credit cards and zero savings I hardly think the US public is in the state to buy into the markets. I think the US public was in better shape in 1999 than they currently are. Atleast they were not upside down on their homes.

re retail investor:
Is the adviser who made his prognostication going to encourage or succumb to his client's wish to go long and reduce fixed income, particularly when he sees it as a sucker's play? Perhaps a presumption on my part.

Behavior patterns are set. There will be no new retail buying on new highs.

Take a look at the massive number of put positions on QQQQ for Sep (45s, 43s), Dec 44s, etc.

Anyone here believes in Max Pain theory?

P.S. My tree was shaken out of all gold positions except the infamous little one. Now, HBB, you can stop shaking it.

Craig,

The nitrogen is getting to me. Just bought some more VAL.

Fred

In regards to the Miners, I just finished Hickey's letter dated 5/4(I am behind I know)... and after Newmont reported Q1 results he has gone on the record stating he has dumped all his PM stock positions but still holds positions in gold and silver ETFs and bullion.

His reasoning being preparation for a large market downturn.

660 is an interesting area to start scaling into GLD, maybe in fifths if that's the way you play it.

Adonis- My point exactly. I will come on this board for verbal taunting by all if JQP is stupid enough to fall for this again.

Yeh. VAL heading up! 10% gain so far.

Fred

Don't get bent Fred!

ALOHA !!

moab ... three reasons why the IMF gold sell news is a lie.

1 - Only an idiot would pre-announce a sell of anything! What is the point of causing prices to drop when you are selling? They would sell first then announce to max profit. Either they already sold or will wait longer than a few days.

2 - The US practically owns the IMF so until the US Congress approves a gold sell by a majority vote then the IMF has no authority. In fact the IMF has no gold of its own, but rather "holds" other people's gold from other institutions and/or countries, which they cannot sell without prior approval by members. So far the US Congress has not announced they have voted for a gold sell, unless they did so in secret(which I would not put past the cowards).

3 - Why has Goldman Suchs(a co-owner of the US Fed)dumped large short positions unless they have insider knowledge POG is going up? Lets see what they did on the TOCOM tomorrow.

Think outside the box ... don't buy what is known to the general public! THE PUBLIC IS ALWAYS THE LAST TO KNOW THE "REAL" TRUTH!

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

Craig,
No worries. I'm wearing a McEwen weight belt.
Fred

Does anyone have any new information or looked at charts regarding Guyana Goldfields? Thanks.

Fred

Kaimu -

It didn't make a lot of sense to me either, since to cover a reported $150 million deficit they want to sell $4 billion of gold, but I thought I'd share with the community. Together we will get to the truth.

ALOHA !!

Much to the chagrin of modern day economists, in the past most global banks considered "gold" to be an asset. If a bank like the IMF cannot make a profit and is losing $165mil in 2006 and $227mil in 2007 then why sell the only asset you own, unless you don't care about assets? Once they sell all their gold then how will they stay in business?

The more important question when I see this news is who is "buying" it? I doubt 400tons will ever see the light of day in the spot market. My guess is that once they sell gold it will be transfered directly to either Dubai or China ... or both!

Kaimu,
Maybe they already sold it and that's the drop in price we've seen the last few weeks even in the face of a weakening dollar.

I noticed in C. Twiggs great work that Treasuries indicated growing money supply.

How *lucky* was it that the IMF needed to sell gold into the market and the Fed needed to sell more dollars into the market at the same time?

"The 400 tons of gold represent one eighth of the 3,217 tons of IMF gold reserve that is valued at close to 68.4 billion dollars at current prices."

According to these numbers, the IMF will receive $8.5 billion in cash. Care to conjecture on how it will be used?

Fred

Sorry $4 billion.

Fred

No, it is $8.5.

Fred

It's simple Fred.

Instant Liquidity.
Take some gold, add lots of worthless paper, spin wildly. Serves none.

Ron Paul's web sites may be found at:

Congressional site: http://www.house.gov/paul/

Presidential Campaign site: http://www.ronpaul2008.com/

The final decision on whether to veto or not (Selling gold by IMD) rests with Congress, where Democrats in the past have fought IMF gold sales on the grounds that they would hurt impoverished nations. Sen. Harry Reid voted against them as minority whip, and might be expected to be consistent now that he’s majority leader.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/imf-gold-sale/2007/02/15/

fred - the 34 cent drop today in GUY.TO is on one of the lightest volume days in the last month ~ 28000 shares vs a daily average of ~ 125000. i guess i take comfort in that - since i own it.

it is consolidating land in guyana, by backing in to aranka gold - check co site - news - april 30.

there has not been much drill news for weeks - so it hopefully will keep basing until something is announced.

Donald Coxe from BMO still very positive on all metals including gold. Sure wish I could still get access to his outstanding Basic Points newsletters (without having to become a BMO Nesbitt client!)

http://greatinvestmentarticles.blogspot.com/2007/05/don-coxe-may-11-2007-conference-call.html

"Over the past two months the Banco de España has sold off 80 tonnes of gold, flooding the world market with enough bullion to dampen the usual spring rally. The bank has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries, British gilts, and other investments at a similar rate."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2007/05/16/cnspain16.xml

Dear Bill,

I wrote yesterday that VGZ (Vista Gold) looked like a buy at $6.60. This was stupid, it was wrong, and the stock's under pressure today. I didn't buy it and I hope no one else did either. With the down-window I should have never suggested a counter-trend trade.
Chris

PS: Don't sell it down here if you did buy it, there's support around $6.20

Sorry, $8.4 billion is correct as there is 2,240 lbs in a ton. Does the IMF intend to run deficits forever? This is absurd.

No freedom of info on Plunge Protection Team
http://www.gata.org/node/5074

I guess the prudent move would be to wait until congress votes on the IMF sale of bullion to open positions eh?

As a fairly new trader, I have been waiting for the "right" time to open positions in the miners... with this IMF news on the horizon, my feeling is that sentiment will probably be bearish for the next few days or weeks. Is this the right way to think about it?

... or perhaps they know that it will be denied by congress so this is just a move to push it lower before HB&B buys it up?

This article about the Plunge Protection Team and the new power it got from Bush's so-called 'Jobs Creation Act' was written in 2005, but I came across it trying to find info about it. This article says that the act authorizes around $100 BILLION to be spent each year by them (adding 100 billion to our trade deficit in the process). Very interesting read, although long.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2005/0403.html

"I wrote yesterday that VGZ (Vista Gold) looked like a buy at $6.60. This was stupid ..."

shark, don't worry. We've all been simple on the miners lately. Well, some of us anyway. ;)

All this talk of Ron Paul and I happen to come across this link talking about the recent debates, with video snippets (but I have no sound at work).

http://www.roguegovernment.com/news.php?id=2092

Seems like Ron Paul came out of nowhere. I had read a bunch of his stuff, and he just seems way to straight talking to be a politician. He certainly would represent a breath of fresh air in politics...

Re: IMF Selling Gold

This is not a new story and it may not be imminent.

http://tinyurl.com/2c8ulj

Fred

number2son - DOUG CASEY ON VISTA:

Comments: We met with Vista's management today, who were not too pleased with our call to take profits, but understood our responsibility to our subscribers who have high returns. Vista articulated a clear shift in mission from "land bank" to "project developer," which is a good thing; as they move more of their ounces closer to production, the market should re-value those ounces. However, those ounces, cheap as they are selling right now, are not without their challenges, so our move to eliminate risk from this play still makes sense to us. That said, the share price took it on the nose in fairly light volume, so, if you have yet to take profits and want to do so, it might be advantageous to see if it rebounds a bit first. We will again reassess this recommendation after the company makes more progress on its development plan.

As for Allied Nevada, the new daughter company, it now has about 100 projects in Nevada, with about half of those JVed. When the dust settles, ANV will have more than $9 million in the bank, and a drill on the way to it's flagship Hycroft project (a low-grade past producer that has seen little exploration for deeper, higher-grade feeder zones). Having gotten our ANV shares basically for free, we're going to hold on to them to see if the company can hit the ground running. Consequently, we are adding a separate line for ANV on the Our Stocks page of our web site and recommending a Hold for now.

Volume getting lighter, though, so it could be near the end of the selling spree. RSI also turned up from ZERO! Ouch - good thing i sold it before the drop. hope this helps.

More info on Plunge Protection Team from a Canadian Source
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/TheVisibleHand.pdf

Re: IMF Selling Gold

I found this story from January 21, 2007.
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=28587

Fred

With respect to the Working Group on Financial Markets at the Treasury Department, on July 15, 2003, I wrote to them seeking access to this information via the freedom of information act.

The address was:

Treasury Department
Disclosure Office, Room1054
1500 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20220

I requested that a copy of the following documents be provided to me: A full year ( June 2002-June 2003) of detailed, monthly reports from the Secretary of Treasury submitted to the House and Senate Banking Committees on the Exchange Stabilization Fund. These reports outline all agreements made or renewed, all transactions occurring during the month, and all project liabilities. The Secretary of the Treasury files these reports by the 30th day of each month to these two committees in the House and Senate.

It took over one year before I received a reply and their response was that it was forward to another department who will be handling the request and if I have any questions contact them. That was over 3.5 years ago and still no receipt of what I requested.

Everyone who reads this site should write under the freedom of information act and request this information for years 04,05,06.

No FIA on the PPT: http://www.nypost.com/seven/05152007/business/no_freedom_of_info_on_plunge_protection_team_business_john_crudele.htm?page=2

Phil Grande of the radio show baring his name 'Phil's Gang' on the Business Talk Radio Network has been railing about the interference of the PPT and every market morning talks about them as he notes the reversal of the Cash Futures which occurs shortly after 0830 ET.

Reagan instituted the PPT right after the '87 market meltdown, yet I doubt seriously if he would condone its activities today.

oops - not zero for VGZ on the RSI 7 more like 14
has the chart set to RSI-2; sorry!

Bill-

This move in the miners should end soon, at least on a relative basis. It has been going on since January '06 as any chartist can attest.

Further to the discussion yesterday concerning Richard Russell and his views....

Here is a link from Kitco.com that sheds some light on RR's views........

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Silberman/may162007.html

Bill;

Thankyou for your comments concerning Goldcorp...

I agree completely that G needed a Jockey with hands on Mine development experience....

Cheers......DB

MarkM, "this move should end" - which end do you mean? The move down lately or the move up since 2006?

Bill, the danger of things imploding is too high. Very risky either way.

Silicon dioxide: Look at the 2 year charts for HUI and XAU. Wow there has been a lot of churn in a protracted wave II. This even opened my eyes when I looked at these charts.

Steve

Look on the bright side of Life...

If central banks sales of gold is any indication i.e sale of Bank of England at rock bottom prices around 250-260$/ounce, and history rhymes, they picked the bottom.

Disclosure: long gold and miners.

"Over the years, I always figured that single tactic put buys were for losers because too often the time decay eats you up."

I'm gonna have that stamped on my forehead, Bill. Selling puts has been far more profitable for me than the other way around.

aguanv-

Churn yes, but directional proportional "churn" is very telling since January '06.

Bill had a famous call in May '05. I think he gets his chance again at one.

MarkM,
I know your Kmart knock off crystal ball has high degree of accuracy, but please translate what you see.

"directional proportional "churn" is very telling since January '06. ??

Do you see miners going up in the next 3 months?

Re an earlier post from "chas" about the "right" time to buy the miners. My wife and I have fond memories (not!) of the May '06 decline. We found ourselves second-guessing every buy into the decline, and learned what works for us. Everyone will have his own tolerance for losses and his own threshold for pain. We decided buy-and-hold was not going to make us happy in the gold sector. If you look at a chart for, say, SLV, you'll notice a pattern of sharp declines followed by relatively gradual recoveries. We have found that by taking losses early (and I have to agree, it's not easy to decide when to exit...sometimes it's a head fake in which case taking a 5-10% loss can sap your trading karma), waiting out the decline, and then buying back in only after the recovery is well underway, is the safest way to play it. You won't make as much money as someone who catches the bottom, but I don't know anyone who does. You also avoid being "shaken out" since you exited well before real pain kicks in. Another advantage is you have the confidence to take a larger position during an uptrend, and before you know it, your initial "draw down" is history.

None of the above should be construed as criticism of the buy-and-hold approach. There are people with far more tolerance than I have for volatility, and they will undoubtedly be rewarded with far greater profits. Find what works for you.

JogyP-

Bill is likely watching the same chart I am for the final spike. I will let him make the call. (If only it could come on my birthday again like last time. I would take that as a sign!)

Re equities, I am watching 4 straight days of flat returns in my psuedo hedge fund while the Dow rockets higher. They say the information is always in the divergences.