Marc Faber Bloomberg Interview ” Final Stages Of A Bubble”

No Place To Hide / LBOs Attack Finance Company Bondholders

The Conundrum Unwinds

A Comeback for the S.&P. (If the Yardstick Is Dollars)

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

Marc Faber Bloomberg Interview ” Final Stages Of A Bubble”

No Place To Hide / LBOs Attack Finance Company Bondholders

The Conundrum Unwinds

A Comeback for the S.&P. (If the Yardstick Is Dollars)

please click on "jmf" to read the stuff (and hear faber)

Someone just paid $5.71 for 6000 shares of Crystallex. I am so goshdarn stupid, being kind of new at this, to have sold yesterday on the day that this thing goes to 52 week highs, which apparrently is like some kind of siren-song. I hate being wrong. I hate it.
Chris

On the other hand, that's $2760 that just disappeared into the ether, in 5 mins. Ouch!

chris - re KRY is that usd? or cad?

Morning Humor:

Jim Cramer told viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Monday. "The sin of not being bullish enough" is not something he's been guilty of often, he said. Cramer believes that we are finally "out of the doldrums" and that the market will be able to take on new highs without much resistance.

Cramer not being bullish enough? often? WOW!

Numerous news reports lately on fx reserves [Norway, China ,Russia, Taiwan] being diverted into equities.

shark_attack -
If you sold at profit that meets or exceeds your portfolio return target you did the right thing regardless of what KRY is doing. I have trimmed my KRY position recently as it has grown above my allocation for a pure speculative play and I don't care if it will double in a week or a year. IMHO this is the game anyone should play OPM only and leave gambling spirit behind.

From a story this a.m. from the WSJ Online:

"Fremont General Corp. has agreed to sell its commercial-real-estate lending business to iStar Financial Inc. for $1.9 billion and a minority interest in the company that will result in new corporate management."

This is sending all the lenders up in the pre-market. FMT itself is up about 50%.

That's what I'm saying, U.S. dollar-thingies. That was the single greatest selling opportunity since Paris real estate in 1939.

Chris

sorry to ask, but i just could not believe it...ouch is right. maybe that tuesday morning rumor is true, though...hope so.

shark_attack, among the best advice I've read on these boards came from someone who frequently wrote, "Plan the trade, trade the plan."

In a nutshell, I interpret this to mean you have to act dispassionately, as if this were the business it truly is.

But even with the best plan, one that wisely balances risk and reward, you're gonna watch a stock you've just sold go higher. It's is a fact of life. Better, let it be said, than other facts of life -- such as selling at a loss on the day a stock puts in a multi-year low. ;)

The best thing to do is move on and reflect on why you decided to sell in the first place, and if you could set your goals differently next time.

GOLD
Sales by Eurosystem Central Banks have been quite big recently.
From http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/wfs/2007/html/index.en.html you can see the sales at the end of each week as follows:
(data in EUR millions)
11/05/2007 transaction -22
04/05/2007 transaction -186
27/04/2007 transaction -195
20/04/2007 transaction -281
13/04/2007 transaction -31
06/04/2007 transaction -189
30/03/2007 transaction -273
23/03/2007 transaction -189
16/03/2007 transaction -256
09/03/2007 transaction -9
02/03/2007 transaction -34
23/02/2007 transaction -37
16/02/2007 transaction -90
09/02/2007 transaction -70
02/02/2007 transaction -39
26/01/2007 transaction -36
19/01/2007 transaction -37
12/01/2007 transaction -28
Maybe they knew that I was trying to speculate on gold and wanted to hit me, damned speculator!

But... there is this interesting ratio Gold/Oil. It suggest that gold could outperform now.
http://tinyurl.com/2ekfa5
Long again...
Even if... MACD graph does not sound that good:
http://tinyurl.com/2fk5pv

Food for mind: http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north527.html
It is a catastrophic description of the effects of a failure of banks to clear accounts from each other, in a world with some $350 trillion in derivatives. "The day the interbank payments system fails, your silver coins and gold coins will not be worth much. Don’t put faith in them. They will not buy what you will want when the trucks cease to roll."

anyway to find out where the purchaser was from? if foreign, could be advance inside information...could also explain why the purchase price was so far off...when you indiscriminately buy pink sheets (like at market instead of with a limit), that kind of stuff can happen. maybe someone wants in really badly...

Dear Chris (shark_attack)--Get used to being wrong. In fact expect to be wrong--just ensure that you do not lose too much money being wrong, and that you are right more often than you are wrong! Where did I see that even the large brokers are only right about 55-60% of the time. You will set yourself up for perennial frustrations if you do not adjust your expectations. Additionally, failure to do so may encourage you to take bigger risks than are wanted. Patience is a virtue, and I do not pretend to have an ample helping of that. Good luck to you.

Wow, what's going on with LEND... up almost 10% in pre-market.

My fantasy account should be doing well... (kicking myself some more with perennial frustration...)

test

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

why is it that we experience more pain from missing out on a move than from taking a hit...even 6 weeks after exiting LEND/FMT, i'm still upset looking at the numbers today...more so than when i took a hit on them back in early april...i'm sure all brokers know this, man...

I was visting our perplexed investor's blog and I found Richard Donchian's General rules on Trading to be very good.

http://theperplexedinvestor.blogspot.com/

I am going to make it a practice to read it every morning.

Thanks guys, for the advice and kind words. I love trading, and it is the most excellent game, and I hope to survive long enough to thrive.

Chris

2nd_ave - i think it has to do with knowing that you were right without getting the reward you think you deserve. I hate that feeling, and it is a tough bias to get over. I am learning alot, though, especially from this community (or cult, right jasper?) about patience. There's always more money to be made, I just hope someday it's made by me!

also found the investor behavior discussion section in "perplexed" helpful...if we all do the opposite of what we're programmed to do, we'll be in great shape!

Donchian's rules are terrific. I recommend folks visit http://www.marketmasters.com.au/articles_.html

This website has profiles on many of the market masters as well as some terrific articles.

If you've not already done so, may I suggest your going to Bloomberg.com. Marc Faber has a pretty in depth interview. You will want pen and paper and most likely will wish to listen to it more than once.

2nd_ave...from kirkreport.com (thanks Leisa for this link) can't put it any better than this:

Steve asks: Like you I've been a poor market-timer of late. I thought that February's drop was a harbinger of bad things to come which certainly has come. How do you not let it frustrate you?

Kirk answers: As the saying goes, lost opportunity is easier made up than losses. If looking back you would have made the same decision back then under those same set of circumstances, you can't be too hard on yourself no matter what the end result has been. Sometimes smart decisions don't pay off in the market. Part of having a mature approach to trading and investing is having the understanding that you're going to make a a lot of good decisions that won't pay off the way you want. That's why they call it investing and trading, instead of winning. It's part of the game, so don't let it frustrate you. Otherwise, if you're prone to frustration, being a lazy portfolio investor who doesn't do any kind of market-timing is a better approach. In my view, life is too short to spend it in frustration. Learn to control it or it will be your master.

shark_attack,

everything is relative. Your trade looks pretty good right now.

FBOW....Back in KRY @4.9 with a prayer. Cmon Hugo.

Chris,
May I suggest GRZ.

KRY vs GRZ

Market Cap
KRY (1.25 Billion) GRZ (250 Million)
Gold Reserves
KRY (14 Million) GRZ (10.4 Million)
Permit
KRY (Still waiting) GRZ (Received Permit 3/28/07)
--
GRZ's Brisas has NI-43-101 reserves of 485 million tonnes of ore grading 0.67 grams per tonne gold and 0.13% copper containing 10.4 million ounces of gold and 1.3 billion pounds of copper (using a revenue cutoff grade of US $3.04 per tonne and a gold price of US $400 and a copper price of US $1.15 per pound). The Company expects to finance the construction of Brisas with a combination of debt and equity. The mine plan anticipates using conventional truck and shovel mining methods with the processing of ore at full production of 70,000 tonnes per day, yielding an average annual production of 456,000 ounces of gold and 60 million pounds of copper for a mine life of 18.5 years. Using copper as a byproduct, operating costs are expected to be US $126 per ounce (using US $1.80 copper).

---
Long KRY, GRZ, UXG, GRS, GG.

Hello the Cara Community. I'm asking for opinions and experience here. Rules are good guidelines but don't always apply in specific instances. God knows I hate to sell anything for fear of losing out! I have a few shares of alltel. Is it best to hold till the sale and get the price set for the stock or is that a gamble? TIA for comments
Peace
Gray

Dear JogyP,

Your case for GRZ is a good one. I don't really see it as wither/or, as I agree with Bill that their futures may be inextricably linked. However, I do think that the permit is the catalyst that could cause a big crazy pop in the price and that is what I think people are chasing now. After the receipt of the permit, I do think a switch into GRZ at that point would be the sensible VZ play. But ultimately, I don't trade fundamentals, I trade prices, and KRY has been in a rightous uptrend. I hope it's got a little left.

Colin Twigs on Gold (May 22, 2007 6:00 a.m. EST)
--------------------
Spot gold broke down through the long-term trendline, warning that the trend is weakening. Narrow consolidation over the last few days is likely to resolve in a downward direction, which would signal a test of support at $630. The primary trend remains up. In the long term, a rise above $690 would signal a test of the upper trend channel; while a fall below support at $630 would signal that the trend has reversed. Probabilities are about even - when we consider that stronger crude prices should support demand for gold
---

Bill,
Re: MGM is presently up about +$17.50 to $80.45

I think that letters to politicians should also be sent to media clouts. We need Reuters, Associated Press and 60 Minutes (in my dreams) in our camp.

Are you a pro trader Gray?

If not and you have a large "abnormal" return right now, IMO I would take my money and run.

That's just my opinion and I'm an admitted Washington General player if you know what I mean.

Dear bill,

Read this this morning...."Venezuela's decision was reported by the daily newspaper Reporte, which cited an Environment Ministry official it didn't identify. Crystallex is waiting for an environmental permit to mine in a separate field called Las Cristinas in Bolivar state."

What's this, another permit I haven't heard about? And what about the Las Cristinas permit? Anyone have any ideas?

Chris

wondering which comes first, the End-Of-Days, or the issuance of this permit.

SNE has had a strong move (for a big stock) over these last 5 days. I'm neutral SNE. I only bought it because I had puts on it, and I was underwater. I figured that if I already had insurance, I might as well take a long position. So, the move has me even.

thoughts on WFMI? appears RSI-7 is above 30 today. up 1.5% or so at my last check.

I added to my WGI/WGDF again today and had added a bit last week. I like to buy while they are in a slumber.
Ray Threlkeld the President of Western Goldfields will be on BNN/ROB tv tomorrow. May not be a rocket ship but I think the stock has put in a good floor and has along ways to go.

All in the USA. All permitted. Run of mine leach operation. Chavez has no control over WGI/WGDF.

Stock is no brainer IMO.

steele73:

The outlook for WFMI is not very bright IMHO.

Growth estimates and EPS trends are all coming down steadily.

I agree with this article no matter what the technicals say:
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070515/35617_id.html?.v=1

MU taking a double or triple blows today, first the dilution, now Intel/STM (plus the collapse of SDRAM prices). Looks like another trip down to 11.

Waiting for GG to come back to 23 as well.

Craig
Thanks for the input. Definitely not a pro. Still looking for my trading style. I'm not convinced that a buy and hold strategy is going to make any money. That was great from '96 to '00. But it giveth and it taketh away.
Day trading is way too stressful and I do not have the gear needed. I really appreciate what Bill has put together here, highlighting the specific tools one man/Wizard finds useful. I like the"let the market bring stocks to you". What I have no experience with is when a stock gets bought out. Do I get the deal price for my dozens of shares or is that only for HB&B and friends? If I could get another 4-6% without risk then...Yeah! But is there a big risk of the stock price dropping? It’s down today almost 1%. That may not be a lot of money but, I am still working (underemployed) and I am worried about my retirement (10 yrs away) and I am taking the warnings to heart. I have to say Michael Panzers book scared the hell out of me. And I just watched Marc Faber say, "traders ought to buy farmland and learn how to drive a tractor". Whoa.

WFMI
steel73,
31/33/42 M/W/D RSI-7. Has had a pop up BUT
by definition you are looking for Monthly to be 30 or below. The other thing that has not happened yet is a crossover of the MACD line. This small move up could be a headfake before moving lower. I would wait for confirmation of a cross over on the MACD before nibbling.

Exactly. This co is a take over and as I recall there is a bid for so much on the stock. As I'm not a pro arbitrageur, if I own a takover (great quick $ but the bastards are buying out MY idea which pisses me off as it cuts off what I might have really made) I take the big push and find another. Bummer huh?

What if the deal falls through?
If they get more bids and it goes even higher, more power to someone, but I safely have my profit faster than expected.

Who gets hired to do these deals? That's right, the same people selling analysis, buy recommendations and sell recommendations, our friends at HB&B. How can you win if you stay?

Another possible big gold sale
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1430025920070514

Speculation in nasdaq, but not gold miners?

For the latest from Don Coxe (Basic Points and the Nesbitt Institutional Client Conference Call for may 2007) please click on "Wolf Stone" to read and listen to the stuff.

Kaimu,

Looks like G'man has increased its shorts position to 24k on TOCOM, from 21k las Thursday, is this interpretation correct?

rob d,

you're absolutely right...if i exercised the same kind of patience i am forced to have with real estate, i'd be in great shape...in fact, i've noticed that every call i've made has eventually played out the way i thought it would...you're probably also right about why i let missing out on the move get to me--it's like getting nowhere playing red for an hour, walking away, then coming back and seeing a string of reds...

I just talked to Ray of WGI/WGDF and they have rescheduled his appearance on BNN/ROB tv. He will not be on on 5/23/2007. I do not have the new time slot.

Thanks Wolfstone

VAL.V is on a bit of a tear today. How about 18%?

Will the private placement cause the stock to drop?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/070518/200705180391696001.html?.v=1

If the private placement is $0.35/shr and the current value is $0.65/shr, does that mean instant gains for those who participated?

Is there any way to get in on the private placement?

Thanks Bill,
Let's just say as I glance around the table I know the house isn't the mark and since all players but me are friends of the house, cheat, and see my cards before I do, I think I have an idea who the mark might be.

I have just returned from a visit to China and India with a brief stop over to the ancestral farm/home in the "Old Sod". I have noticed that some people on here have made comments on China and India. Both countries are in over drive and the opportunities are boundless. China is now 4th in GDP and India has just become the 12th nation to the $1 trillion GDP club and soon to surpass Russia Brasil Canada and Spain. China is well ahead of India and I doubt India will catch them in prosperity anytime soon.

Fortunately for investors India is a democracy and one needs to be patient when it comes to investing. Once China opens the door a little further there will be fantastic opportunites for all.

Kamiu. You have no fear that my farm will provide any competition for growing orchids. I believe the only thing they have in common is the Ocean and Beauty.

It was certainly worth the stop over having come from a cauldron of humanity to a tranquil teacup.

Bill. Thanks for the info on Val. I did some due diligence after your first post and was able to pick up a block at $0.28.

On Valgold.

Bill Cara spotted it early and spotted it well.

As for the non brokered placement, it all went before any mere mortals could subscribe. This kind of popularity can only be bullish. This kind of non brokered event is often designed to let larger players buy into interesting prospects without them having to worry about the mess caused by open market transactions.

Having a guy like Wilkinson on board gives the project a lot of green lights. The recent drill results were not marketshakers, but they weren't bad either. the ore body is shaping up like the KRY las cristinas deposit (though buried a little further underground, it seems), but nobody can really tell how extensive the resource is. The company is confident that it is commercial, which is good enough at this stage. They wouldn't be drilling again and wasting money on a longshot (not people of Wilkinson's caliber, anyways).

Whatever they get from the Venezuela site, VAL has a really promising U body in Guyana. From what i understand, the Venezuela thing will be used to raise cash for development in Guyana (though it is early stages as yet so there are a lot of variables).

The financial background of VAL is very intriguing too. One of South America's richest men, Cisneros, has a sizeable stake in VAL. One can assume that project development cash will be easily available.

There's also a very interesting appointment to the board recently. Peter Tinoco is chief at Venevision (the Cisneros controlled TV company) and has simply excellent mining credentials. Tinoco was head of the Venezuela mining chamber and knows everybody who is anybody. A better man to smooth over admin problems is impossible to find.

Bottom line: VAL.v is certainly a minnow to watch. Never bet the farm on these things (just look at NRS.v today, but that could be called apples and oranges), VAL seems to have serious people looking at it and liking it...not least of which Bill Cara!

Val is actually my sister's name which makes it a bit personal in a way too...

Will try and nibble the minnow, though it doesn't seem to want to come to me at the same price as the private placement.

I also ordered the annual report. Like Cramer, I believe fundamentals don't matter as much as the feeling you get from a company's financial report. WFMI's 2005 report came across as slick & expensive with lots of photos. COSTs looked like it came on recycled toilet paper. I got both of them around the same time (Feb '06). Have a look at which one would have made sense then.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=COST&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=wfmi

Haven't seen 2006 reports yet.

Another one I looked at around the same time was Pier 1, since my wife used to go there on a weekly basis. What caught my eye was the $100 million they spent on head office, plus the fact that wicker just isn't selling for people any more.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PIR&t=2y

This year she doesn't go there nearly as much.