Deficit Attention Syndrome / Contrary Investor

one of the best pieces i´ve seen about the deficit. excellent!

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

make sure you get the comment from paulsen at the end of the report....

may day... :-)!

ValueLine Index, Median of Estimated P/E Ratios

compare this to the daily “cheap market” spin/talk

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

KRY posting drill results. Comments, anyone?
http://www.ccnmatthews.com/news/releases/show.jsp?action=showRelease&actionFor=648878&searchText=false&showText=all

EJ

taking positions in sds and dxd...

My miners are getting ripped. Looking at GDX, etf gold miner, 7.5% to get to 2/27 low...that much more to go and it's not much fun. Using a weekly chart on this index, a top was fairly obvious...jumping in-out-in not a well oiled habit of mine. Holding for now, assuming that price is distorted by leverage and what is happening with the gold price. Price chart on eem and my preference, ILF/latin america, has the upper ground which gives me the hope that despite the selling of gold that we hear about by the central banks demand will remain strong. How are others handling their gold mining positions?

2dave-

MarkM KMart Knockoff Crystal Ball apparently now working on clear days too. :)

Jasper - For one, I'm a fair-weather friend of junior miners (indeed of all stocks) if there's enough trading volume to avoid slippage. UXG went on sale this morning, and I got out; will try to buy back in lower ... KRY allows this, and GRZ to a lesser extent.

Of course, the problem is keeping your eye on the ball while you're out, and hoping the stock bases, turns up and encourages entry before it takes its next lurch skyward. Not easy ...

AND HERE COME THE GLOBETROTTERS!

t4k

Does any reader know enough to make sense of KRY's drilling results reported above. Seems like just a few "red blotches" (apparently = high gold/ton concentrations) added so far from of this drilling.

Seems that there are many more holes to be reported than already reported.

The market didn't seem impressed, since the stock went north for a few minutes, then came back to earth.

Any thoughts from a better informed reader?

t4k, lol. Kinda funny how that always happens. The tepid reaction to the ISM and woeful pending home sales are telling, however.

Jock, given the drubbing meted out to miners today, I'd consider KRY's behavior a major victory.

Don't jinx it, man. ;)

Jasper/Jock:

I too am away from the screen intermittently. Taking a page from someone else's book posted earlier this week, I sell stop what ever is appropriate ( for me, currently, -5% + -1x ATR) and when away, and buy stop at 3 ATR from last trade.

Re Interactive Brokers IPO, since this is an Open IPO, you can submit an indication of interest outside of the "expected to price" range of $23-27. I understand that irrespective of your indication, you will receive the shares at the price the IPO is priced. Since the pricing of the IPO is not going to be materially affected by high indications from small fries like us, if you really want an allocation, you should indicate a very high amount, e.g. $35. This way, your chances of receiving an allocation are greater.

GLD recovering..?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

UXG still on sale around 5:60

JogyP, UXG will not recover until I sell.

I'll be sure to let everyone know when it's safe to buy again.

Did someone say credit balloon?

http://tinyurl.com/2rfqlh

number2son,
I'm sure you're not alone in that club. I myself have been a member for more than 20 years.

Fred

number2son, whenever I buy UXG, it goes up 6 -7% in the next 2 days.
2nd_ave, are you still in BMD. Thinking of taking a position here.

Same for me folks!
If you use my UXG position, it's now going to skyrocket, keep an eye out......
And my results are far better. When I sell any stock in question, it does double digits.

t4k-

Patience! The Boys still have to TRY to squeeze a few extra dollars.

Seriously, VERY short leash with this and only toe in water. This is a blow-ffy kind of market and if they can put the screws on AMZN like they did they can do wonders here too.

MarkM,

Sometimes I don't need a crystal ball to tell me things have to go the other way ;).

2dave-

Touche!

Chavez announced he wants to pull VZ out of the World Bank and IMF. The IMF lacks business because countries don't want to borrow from them.

Per BBC, Chavez also is taking control of refineries owned by XOM, COP, CVX, BP, TOT, STO - and is haggling on price.

His message is: we don't NEED these western institutions. Chavez, China, India etc. are driving change (lurchingly, uncertainly). The west is reacting, with BUSH doing what he can to undermine international law (Kyoto, Iraq, Guantanamo). Why would "the world's sheriff" want to say the law doesn't count?

The post-WW2 international framework seems to be unravelling. How will this affect traders? What will emerge in its place?

With Rupert Murdoch buying Dow Jones, Bill's "stock" also appreciated a great deal today. The insane sell side noise is about to become deafening.

If you thought CNBC was bad, you haven't seen anything yet. Imagine Dow Jones with that Fox N' Friends flair for facts.

What will they think of next?

I may bore the board with my process notes. Bottom line I'm persevering as my own retirement asset mgr, and hoping to learn whether or not this is a bad idea to be handling this account on my own. For me it's not entertainment or sport...not that those are bad reasons to be at the biggest casino game in the world. Maybe there are others who relate to my situation.

My account is down 2.7% from its high last week of 7.6%ytd. Each point is such tough real estate that I grunt that much more. Only 70% in equities, with rest in cash.

My wife, each week, tabulates how this "retirement nest egg" is faring in comparison to the the russell 3000. She notes that I've strayed from the original playbook where I hold only etfs, a mix of broad and focused. A relevant strength software program did remarkably well but, now, I'm afraid that the easy money has been had. I do miss this strategy which was so so much easier.

Earlier in the year I signed up with a premium news letter for stock and etf alerts where entries are done with close attention to risk reward. A lot of work to stay close to the computer screen and nimble is required to play the alerts. Their win ratio is 27-9 but it's not adding to my account. A pattern is that the longs increase just as the market corrects and then they are taken off for safety. 20 positions is considered fully invested. After 4 months, 9 positions on average at a time. Thus, the provider does show caution. But failure to sell immediately has left me with some large losses and the expected use of etfs have not materialized.

My attention and eyeball time has substantially moved to Bill's website. I'm hoping that I can find a fit that allows a portion of my account to go to stocks where it's more of an investment with longer hold times and computer time is mostly a time limited drill. Meanwhile, Bill has helped me to carve out some ground north of cost.

PM/mostly gold positions, 30percent of account, as a whole, are actually pretty good... gfi:5.6%; gdx:-1.84; grz:178; slv: -.65; slw: 18.2; uxg 37.59; wgdf: -2.71; eza: 7.43....the metal itself is showing the bigger lost..gld:-2.69. Due to my large exposure in this asset class, though, a move down is really felt.

Every trade needs an exit, so I can not expect to stay in these positions forever. I, like others I suppose, read this website religiously to learn when to exit...which for me is related to rotation rather than trading in and out.

Re Interactive Brokers, I've followed ipo's to come to believe that whenever ipo's are priced out of the initial range the odds increase that this is healthy for the longer term picture. I'll try to take a small position in this ipo, dutch auction style, via Fidelity the day before its general offering. I'm told that if I show interest at the top of the new range,31, that I will automatically have some shares allocated and pay at a lower price if that is where it is eventually priced.

Soon it will be King Hugo of VN and King Rupert of Wall St. Does sound exotic. Just think you will now be able to get all your daily financial news from the Sun and News of the World in London.

Jasper -

Overtarding & impatience are the two risks I perceive from your post in your quest to invest your retirement savings. Although you shouldn't be loth to act quickly when opportunity knocks, I sense that too frequent (weekly) benchmarking and over-active trading may divert you from the objective of building substantial long-term performance at limited risk (esp. with retirement money for which you may feel somewhat higher risk aversion as I do). However thoughtful Bill's analysis and the board's discussions may be (as opposed to the constant promotional machine of CNBC et co.), we all run the risk of falling in the myopic trap of day-to-day pronouncements that run contrary to retirement wealth building. Beyond his astute reading of the tea leaves, Bill reminds his readers that patience and discipline are foremost virtues for the investor. So, in your shoes (if you are only playing with what I call restricted money), think longer term with a thorough, well-balanced and diversified watchlist of asset classes, stocks, ETFs, bonds or whatever you are interested in, and prepare to build your positions in time. Most of all, you should strive to make decisions with which you can live even if your selections cross a tough patch. Finally, I am surprised that your are so heavy into gold (or any single sector) outside of a trading/spec account. It only takes FCBs a push of the button to make you lose too much sleep IMO.

JML

I've been patiently waiting for something good to happen with GG, MDG and HMY and have considered selling. The idea is to avoid the drop that these will experience if the broad market heads south. But today, I noted that the RSI 14 for GG is about 37 and for MDG is about 39. Anyone have an opinion about whether this is a useful indicator to hold?

I was just checking out Doug Casey's site (via Bullionvault.com) and notice that he feels that junior gold co's have vast appreciation potential in this stage of the market. He offers a service for around $1100 for 3 months or $4500 per year to spot special situations in these pm shares and give trading alerts. I don't have that kind of money, and I would not want to take a chance at such a high price, but the implication would seem to be that when one pays such a price, the rewards are assumed to be commensurate. It occured to me that Bill's project of assembling a database on small mining co's would be just as good and also free or minimal cost. Does anyone have experience with the type of proposal that Casey is offering? Any thoughts?

For the nervous gold bugs, I post (again?) some interesting views from Lee Wheeler at Wall Street Examiner.

http://tinyurl.com/2la2ds
http://tinyurl.com/34798d

JML

Allen - I believe GG was removed from the Cara 100 recently - due to the GLG acquisition and the ensuing shareholder's rights battle. I believe of the senior miners, Bill prefers KGC but I would definitely refer to his posts of course before taking action. Hope this helps.

Jumble,

Thanks so much for your thoughtful response and well worth a re-read. Out of impatience I've strayed from the well diversified, slow and steady, and no big bets. Too stressful and at some point stress leads to bad decisions. Thanks Again!

Jasper -

In all honesty, it is easier to preach patience & stress control than practice it. Just limit it to the money you can afford to lose (but your ulcers will still prove that you hate to and your spouse will aptly remind you of your reckless behavior at the bottom when you peer into the abyss).

JML

Bill and Jumble,

I have to really have a face to face talk. I have to know what kind of investing that I am comfortable in pursuing. I think that I get hooked by approaches that fall outside of my comfort area and I fail to know when I am leaving my original turf. I'm not sure if my fascination can lead me to the necessary skill acquisition if nimble is required. My comfort is with top down investing, asset rotation, a routine that may demand a few hrs a day but not constant screen viewing. I want to hang out and learn from Bill and fellow posters but not go beyond what I regard as limitations. As a self directed mgr of my retirement account I think one such limitation is that it is distracting, if not dangerous, for me to be on the same field with others who have different goals and are learning what may be different skills. My determination is that I have this un-dying conviction that I can do a much better job than the Fidelity Advisor or the typical wrap account manager.

Jumble....interesting articles on the xau/gold ratio. Written a few weeks back when folks probably felt rosier. Still, strikes me as informative for future decision making. Thanks.

JogyP: Yes, this would be a good time to open a position in BMD. I'm adding myself, and hope to finish accumulating a significant position by this summer, which is when they will be doing the bulk of their business. If you Google "Birch Mountain" you can find a couple of old analysts' reports from '05 and '06 with target prices between 8 and 12.

What a crappy day. I seem to be in that zone again, where every stock I short heads up and every stock I buy goes down.

[Sigh]

Hi All,

I'm trying to buy into the Interactive Broker IPO and am not sure how this conditional offer stuff works. If I put an order to buy X amount of shares at $31 ( the price range is expected to be 27-31) and what if the actual price is $27 ? Will I get my shares at $27 or $31 ?

BMD is my only long, btw. Other than that, I'm just waiting for the next "red sky in the morning".

n2son,

You mentioned being able to see the Maze from your office. Is this what traffic looks like when you head home: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?o=0&f=/c/a/2007/05/01/BAGHNPIQ5I5.DTL

theadonis,

you are only saying the max price willing to pay, ergo, you will get the lower price

price range has changed: 27-31.

Bill & Others:

I truly appreciate your efforts and comments ( and indulgence to newer posters/readers).

After 30+ years on the sell side I, like Jasper, am managing my own retirement funds. Net Results - OK, ups and downs, but rarely intellectually unstimulated or unchallenged - particularly on this site.

This is my serious money that I will need to grow in order to maintain and improve my lifestyle. Sometimes stressful (not market movement, but questioning my own judgement). Nonetheless,far less stressful than watching some MF (you know I mean Mutual Mund) manager or stock broker erode my net worth (I can do that just fine by myself, thank you, without those fees and commisions.)

I'll close with a question for the crowd: The DOW volume today was one of the lowest in several years. As I write this the DJII was up about 1/2% with roughly 55% of the average EMA(50) volume.

Is this light volume something primarily attributable to the Asian holidays? I think I will continue to research some selected Puts (am running through Bills RSI>70 extreme level stocks for candidates.

Hey, thanks a bunch 2ndAve. Things weren't bad enough today with the market going all irrational on me, you had to provide a picture of what I'll be facing in a few hours. ;)

Jasper,

From the sounds of it, you may be paying too close attention to the small details and not enough to the larger picture (seeing the forest for the trees, etc..). You should focus more of your efforts at the end goal, which is retirement in your case. I work for a large bank and I manage assets for people (mostly discretionary accounts), so I deal with this on a daily basis. Believe me, your concern is not uncommon.

Truthfully, most of your performance comes from asset allocation, and less so from actual stock picking. You can reference many studies out there, but the Brinson study is probably the most well known, where it was shown that about 77% of your return comes from AA (being invested in the right area). Security selection accounted for about 10% or so (there are other smaller factors as well). I guess what I am trying to get at is that you need to remain focused on having the proper allocation at the right time and less so on what your next stock pick will be.

I believe what Bill and others graciously provide here on this forum is the tools to succeed for that remaining 10% or so of your return as well as for smaller speculative pools of money. You mentioned that you had a plan early on and have deviated from it and noted a larger exposure to metals. Jumble hit the nail right on the head-you will be much better off with a well-balanced and well-diversified portfolio long term. It's easy to preach it, but far more difficult to practice it.

Keeping yourself informed of world markets and economic factors can help you determine how much to allocate to large cap, mid/small cap, international, etc... Once you have that, use Bill's tools to help you find the securities that will benefit most from those economic factors (most of which he already does).

Kind of a long rant, but keep the faith brother. Keeping informed of your finances and retirement is one of the best things you can do for yourself in terms of education and well being.

Nasdaq up but declining volume was 1.5X advancing volume.

Greetings from Canada, I am reading the IBIPO Auction System (Interactive Brokers IPO) and from their web site it states Due to Canadian legal restrictions, residents of Canada may not bid in an IBIPO Auction. Any ways around this restriction.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) vs Etrade (ETFC)

http://www.ipohome.com/common/ipoprofile.asp?ticker=ibkr
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=ETFC&annual

Summary:
Market cap
ETFC - 9.58 B
IBKR - 10.1 B (27-31 Price Range)

2006 Revenue
ETFC - 2.4
IBKR - 1.62

2006 Net Income
ETFC - 628 M
IBKR - 734 M
I know there are other factors to compare, but if IBKR goes too high from the IPO range, ETFC may go up in sympathy.

Aucourant- re: Doug Casey

Doug Casey is a gold bug who did well near the top of gold bubble in the late 70's. I read his "Crisis Investing" book and remember watching him on Donahue promoting hard assets as the sure way to create the millionaires of the future, while the poor suckers left holding paper assets would find their holdings lose value as the governement printing presses did their thing.

People who followed his advice at the time lost their collective shirts. I liked what he said, but fortuneately as a college student, I didn't have any money to invest at the time.

He may ultimately be right, but his timing was poor. I'm surprised that he is still around. I consider him like Howard Ruff or Joseph Granville- guys who had their moments, but fell from the limelight when their inflexible strategies no longer worked.

I can't imagine paying $4500 annually for his advice. I would feel much more comfortable (at any price)with Bill's choices of junior golds, if and only if you felt the need to invest in junior golds based on the factors often discussed in this blog.

Just check out this thread for some great investment advice. Diversify. And I really like Bills' AZ and DZ methodogy. A stock in the AZ may not go up, but so far my own results with this method has been very good, and I have the peace of mind knowing that I won't overpay for a stock.

Coffee futures at a buck a pound. This must be good for SBUX. Even Schultz has commented in the past that coffee prices make a difference in their bottom line.

Klingon288

Thanks for your lowdown on Casey! I wasn't planning to plonk down $4500, but I was kind of tempted by another offer at $79/3 mo. Now I'm not. I trust Bill's methodology and instincts more than any other, as my purchases reflect--SLW,GLD,KRI,KGC, as well as Sprott's MLY. I have been late getting into some of these because I find they rocket up sometimes after Bill mentions them and my reluctance to chase them means I wait too long and pay too much. When a stock is on a tear, it's hard to wait for the RSI to be below 30. I'm not sure how to handle this!

Has anyone looked at Maudore Minerals (MA0.V)? It was recommended by Jay Taylor.

n2son-in my opinion, except for the traffic, you reside in one of the best places to live on this planet...i wouldn't trade the bay area for anything else.

Hi Bill, Thanks for great and valuable site and all the incredible work you do.
About the Bahamas Fund. How does a Canadian get money in..and out?
Was in Nassau 2 weeks ago and went to Matisse for dinner hoping to recognise you from your pic. No luck. Are you going to any AGM's in Toronto? Tomorow there's YRI and FRG. S on May 24.
Anyways love Bahamas and your fund may give me an opportunity to visit.

Bill, Jumble, and Ricej11....

Soul searching day. A lot said that does resonate. Thank you.

Re: Casey
While I wouldn't necessarily disagree with anything that was already said about Doug Casey, I do believe that his newsletter (the cheaper one) is well worth the money. The amount of fundamental analysis and due dilligence that it provides is extraordinary. He focuses on quality management, quality assets, and companies that don't give the store away (options, warrants etc). For strictly fundamental info on junior miners, its a high quality rag. But, of course, anyone with any experience will tell you that trading successfully and making good returns on a risky asset class takes a lot more than good stock picking.

The reason why Bill Cara doesn't get caught up in picking fish every day here (besides legality), is because he is trying to teach us how to fish. I used to think that I only had to be smart enough to find, or buy the "right" market analysis for whatever macro environment I believed in at the time. If only it were taht easy. After a few years of consistent effort, I have learned enough about myself as a trader to get much bettter at it. There is no quick route. Contrary to what I used to believe, there is very little, if any, superior information available. I use Casey for fundamental research. My success, great or small, is the result of using this information in a superior manner.

Bill see HW's earnings report today-home run! Havnt checked RSI, but trading at B.V. with big boyz blowing out stops within 1% of 52 W.L. (sound familiar); 20% of float short will make for one first-rate fireworks show noting how small the door is. I predict a "buy" upgrade very soon noting folks like JPMorgan initiated coverage last week. The story is no longer a pipedream, nice timing for a coal to liquids story noting another refinery went down today :)

re: Doug Casey's newsletters. In my experience, he first recommends stock picks in the pricey newsletter,and these are months later, recommended on the cheap one. You can imagine the effect this can have on price action and how it may impact subscribers to "cheapo". Despite this "problem", some of his picks continue to soar.