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May 15, 2007
Cara’s Daily Board, Tues., May 15, 2007, 8:24 AM
Once again, the DJIA (+20.5 pct) advanced, and the Dow Utilities too (+0.27 pct), so the Bulls are happy, but the average stock in NY was DOWN. The key indicators, such as Broker-dealers ($XBD -1.1 pct), Semi-conductors ($SOX -0.1 pct), Homebuilders ($XHB -0.1 pct) and Retailers ($RLX -0.2 pct) were down.
The S&P 500 (-0.2 pct), NASDAQ Composite (-15.8 -0.6 pct), Russell 2000 Small Caps (-0.9 pct) and DJ Transports (DJTA -0.9 pct) were clearly having no part of the Bull yesterday. For the broad market, decliners outnumbered advancers by about 2 to 1 on the NYSE and NASDAQ.
The biggest losers were, in order, Financials (-0.61 pct), Technology (-0.49 pct), Basic Material (-0.45 pct) and Industrials/Transports (-0.44 pct). The Bear was in the picture.
Apparently, the fear of a slowdown in China's metal imports triggered profit-taking in copper futures and shares of miners BHP, FCX, RTP and TCK (downgrade). Goldman Sachs, which is probably behind that story as they downgraded China a week ago, yesterday downgraded the aerospace and defense industry from Attractive to Neutral, also because of valuation. Shares of BA, CRDN (52-wk high), HON and FRPT (both 52-week highs), LMT, NOC, GD, and RTN still managed gains on the day. But, the titanium suppliers (ATI, RTI, and TIE) were decliners.
Most of the Precious Metals were hit hard. We now have to watch the China story evolving here. This China slowdown story is clearly being fabricated by Goldman Sachs, who must be over the moon with their trading profits from shorts and put options. If it can be shown that such tactics preceded their research call, and they are taking their clients and the rest of us to the cleaners in order to dress up their quarter, then it’s only a matter of time before the market responds. Putting their people into the key positions as Treasury Secretary and as head of the FOMC trading desk is just too close for comfort.
This morning, we learn how the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is doing:
Regardless what anybody else believes, I believe that “had Bernanke not turned on the printing presses to goose the US equity market last July, I believe inflation could have been beaten.“ By not raising the Fed Rate earlier by buying HB&B’s holdings treasury paper, the Fed acquiesced in the HB&B play for extending massive credit to corporations and Private Equity, which has led to take-overs, share buy-backs and dividends. That has flooded the tax coffers for Treasury, yes, but the other side of the ledger is the enormity of debt in the system that cannot be balanced by equity as soon as traders get tired of chasing stocks higher, just like investors got tired of chasing house prices higher. None of this makes any sense at all, and, from my perch, only the Merrill Lynch’s chief North American economist David Rosenberg, and the ubiquitous economist Nouriel Roubini have been outspoken critics. I think it is shameful what is going on in the White House today.
Not so much window-dressing for the NASDAQ yesterday!
Asia-Pacific markets were very strong yesterday, just as I had “forecasted” in the Week In Review after watching the Cara 100 Chinese stocks top the leader board during Friday’s rally in NY.
But today is a totally different story.
Flaming red sky if the Far East today. Shanghai down -3.6 pct. The Nikkei Dow down -0.9 pct.
Are traders anxious about US CPI and rising interest rates, maybe? Or is the “Gold”man telling more stories that China has closed shop?
Lots of red arrows at 7:45am ET.
Thunderstorm rolling through Toronto early this morning. (LOL) It’s true.
The $USD in the early hours today popped to a high of 82.108, before dropping back to 82.53 at 7:20am.
I’m going to take a guess that it drops more today. But my eyes are wide shut as I try to start the engine.
U.S. Treasury Bond Jun. 2007 contract
You take the T-Bar up and the T-Bond down, apparently. Last trade 111.1250
The e-Mini Jun-07 oil contracts this morning are softening. Crude Oil are at 62.20, down from 63.00 yesterday at this time.
Whenever the equity market looks like it faces tough sledding ahead, there seems to be this miracle on 42nd St. Oil prices dip. A present for the “Gold”man?
Gold Jun-07 contracts on the NYMEX
Gold near futures are trading down this morning at 666.50, down from yesterday’s 675.4 at this time. There was a mid morning smash yesterday and possibly another one this morning.
At the end of the day, however, I believe that the Gnomes and HB&B have decided to take the capital market, including PM’s higher. I could be wrong, but I’m sticking with my strategy for now.
A ray of hope in the past few minutes (8:01 am ET) with gold. Spot gold is up slightly at 665.38.
But let the record show that Spot gold was just 668.15 on Friday at this time. So the whiners ought to be quiet while they watch the market more closely, and stop listening to Talking Noggins who want to get you roiled.
Spot silver is at 13.03 at this point in the morning, down sharply from yesterday, BUT comparing favorably to the 13.01-13.05 range early Friday.
Spot platinum is at 1314, down from yesterday’s 1332 at this time, BUT up from 1313 at about this time Friday.
Spot palladium is up to 351 this morning (8:07am ET), down from yesterday and also from the 357 at this time Friday.
The commodity bear is starting to hibernate, and the commodity bull appears to be snorting and ready to go for a Summer jaunt.
$CRB dropped from 309.07 to lucky number 308.88 at the close yesterday.
Yes, I believe the rally is on, and that yesterday was the pre-rally buying opportunity. I believe it may now be a good time for nimble swing traders to consider switching from the bullion to the juniors, especialy if the NY stock market doesn't cave in here.
In a Bull, the leverage of the listed miners works for you.
Admittedly, this is a high-risk call on my part.
As you know I like the companies that are rapidly ramping up production, or will in the next two or three years. In prior market cycles, these are the stocks that double and triple in a brief period.
Cara 100 Stockwatch
Here are the Cara 100 gainers on Friday.
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers
In the WIR, I wrote, “Do you see how China has taken four of the top spots on Friday. But the Shanghai Composite was down -0.7 pct earlier in the day, so why were these Chinese stocks up so much? On a day (Friday) where US stocks were flying, how come the Chinese stocks were flying higher? Isn’t that all about Monday? And the Rockets Red Glare, the bombs bursting in air, Gave proof through the weekend, That Shanghai will be there (on Monday).”
Yesterday, Shanghai (+0.61 pct) and Hong Kong (+2.50 pct) were flying.
Today was a different story. So, today watch those China stocks get a pounding in NY: CNOOC China Offshore (CEO), China Telecom (CHA), China Mobile (CHL), PetroChina (PTR) and MPEL hasn’t been much of a gamer either.
Tao, Brother.
Here are the top Cara 100 losers for Friday.
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)
There were 14 stocks of the Cara 100 for Monday that hit 52-week intra-day highs and two that found lows.
Here, from “Chris”, are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from “Chris”:
There are now 9 Cara 100 Company stocks that are below 30 on the Daily RSI-7 versus 6 above 70, using data from “Chris” – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which he takes from Worden. That is a gradual reversal in the RSI indicator and ought to forewarn traders.
Here, from “David”, are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest Daily RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values.
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with highest RSI-7 with Monthly-Weekly-Daily all either >70 or <30
Note that Whole Foods Market dropped into the Cara Accumulation Zone (AZ) but a Cara Buy signal will not be set off unless and until the Daily RSI-7 recovers and goes up past 30.
But, if you will, please note the Distribution Zone (DZ) stocks (M-W-D RSI-7 above 70) that have set off Car Sell signals in recent days and weeks as the Daily RSI-7 fell below 70.
Recall, of course, that this is a discipline that has worked well for me with an institutional (long-term) approach to trading, which essentially means that I do not buy to hold (which is akin to investing), but that my average hold period is typically longer than one year.
To reiterate, this is not a recommendation to trade in securities my way or in any particular security. What I am expressly doing is pointing out the importance of having a logical, systematic discipline to trading stocks. Even if I decline to use the AZ/DZ Alerts and Buy/Sell Signals, for other reasons, by using my system I am forcing myself to be disciplined to buy low and sell high. Trust me; it works.
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with RSI-7 Daily all >70 or all <30.
Today’s headline story is the Thomson-Reuters $17.24 billion merger. This is a good one, I think.
Wal-Mart’s income rose +8.1 pct based on international strength, so my recent WMT analysis was justified.
Home Depot (HD) reported a loss of -30 pct on the bottom line, but we all knew the bottom line was the deplorable state of the US housing industry, which is going to get worse before it recovers maybe 2008-2010.
There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website updates in the morning.
Smith Barney likes KB, upping it from Hold to Buy and ECA moving to Hold from Sell.
Goldman Sachs has upgraded GSK from Sell to Neutral.
Some tech (especially chips) got upgraded.
Deutsche Bank likes Gol Intelligent Airlines of Brazil, upgrading from Hold to Buy.
HSBC dropped Rio Tinto to Neutral and CIBC World Markets dropped Teck-Cominco to Sector Perform. I don’t know what they think of the sector. :-)
First Global downgraded GOOG to Market Perform.
Wrap up:
The Team Micro-cap 100 project is coming along. Please feel free to send me (bcara@billcara.com) any idea you have for a micro to small cap stock (under $1 billion down to $100 million or even lower) that you think has the management, business model and product/market opportunity to boost their company valuation and the share price by a factor of 5x within 3 to 5 years. We’re starting from an initial list we gathered of over 400 and will whittle it down to 100 to monitor for you. Should be fun. The exercise is 100 pct independent and objective, which is the way research ought to be. Besides, it is the readers who are calling the shots. I figure if Leisa can put herself into the top 3 pct in the recent CNBC Challenge, then the Cara Community ought to be up in that rarefied air as well. Congrats to Leisa!
Have a good day, even if markets seem frustrating.
Trust me, when markets get frustrating, it’s never the market at fault. Sit back and ask yourself what you are doing to be suffering angst.
ADDENDUM: London UK stockbroking analyst Deepak Lalwani offers some terrific insights into the important India market and economy.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 15, 2007 08:24:25 AM | Category: Cara's Bull Board
Discourse
MarketWatch Bulletin: U.S. core CPI up 0.2% in April, as expected; 12-month rate's lowest in a year.
What about the whole inflation rate?
Anyway, let the spin begin. This will boost the broad market and the PM's as I had been hoping. Yet, I do not believe the truth behind the headline.
Posted by: Bill Cara ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
May 15, 2007 8:46 AM [link]
Many Thanks to 2nd for the report on BMD.
24 hr ops at over 2 X's last years prices with the good possibilitiy of lime production is worth buying at this price. Thank you for the analyst reports as well.
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 9:03 AM [link]
BTW, Bill and All,
Got my ass handed to me yesterday with MPEL, got stopped out with a loss.
Asia down last night, mpel earnings today, Las Vegas Sands upgrade, mpel with a 14 handle heading to 52 wk low.
You all may want to watch it for the inevitable Craig sell turnaround. It's usually good for dbl digits!
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 9:19 AM [link]
MPEL 1Q rev 20.3M VS 5.43M
Life is for learning....
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 9:25 AM [link]
MPEL net loss YOY -27.2m VS 7.5M.
Hard YOY comps when opening large casino ops.
Still learning...
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 9:30 AM [link]
About two weeks ago I stopped by a scrap metal dealer while in Western Michigan to discard some scrap. I asked how business was. The response was scrap steel prices had recently dipped $50 per ton to $150, but this was not well known. Scrap steel end product customers include the auto industry. (I note readers comments about excess inventory at car lots and comments about future fire sales).
Reference copper, the employee stated “All copper goes to China.” No ands, ifs or buts. That answer was final, no other consideration for copper. China buys all they can provide.
Posted by: Seamus at
May 15, 2007 9:34 AM [link]
Regarding GS's China slowdown story: Headline this morning on Bloomberg: "China Retail Sales Growth Accelerates as Wages Climb. - Sales rose 15.5 percent from a year earlier to 667.3 billion yuan." "Electronics sales increased 13 percent in April from a year earlier, while those of furniture jumped 53 percent. Jewelry sales rose 31 percent." "China's economy grew 11.1 percent in the first quarter as exports boomed, flooding the financial system with cash." "The increased wealth of China's consumers is leading retailers to boost investment."
Posted by: writersblock at
May 15, 2007 9:37 AM [link]
bmd: adding here for a trade...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 15, 2007 9:55 AM [link]
opening positions in wfmi, gfi, slw...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 15, 2007 9:56 AM [link]
Be careful 2nd,
WFMI RSI 14 still in 20's.
BMD is a deal here.
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 9:59 AM [link]
uxg for a trade...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 15, 2007 10:01 AM [link]
Yes, I have the inevitable sell turnaround too. I have learned to only sell half my positions when I get nervous, as my original idea was (usually) sound.
LEND, for example... I sold all my holdings when it tanked, then bought in my fantasy "bullpoo.com" account. I'm up 28% or $135,000! (in fantasy land)
USO - I sold half my investment, and the ETF bounced back.
I think I am going to start taking a longer-term approach as Bill suggests. Kicking myself for not getting POT last year (the stock, that is...)when I put in my order @ $89.
They're doing a 3-1 split and upping their dividend, sitting at $195.00
Good Morning All!
Bill, you've good reason to doubt the validity of 'numb3rz' courtesy of our Beltway Buffoons. Doug Kass was the guest on 'Squawk Box' this AM and mentioned this site:
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs?
I recall the uproar when this change in accounting occurred as it was one of the pretexts for raising taxes, a Clintoon specialty. Much the same has been done with Education as dumbing down SAT numbers, with much the same end result.
Another site which differs in its take on our economic situation & numbers is:
Perhaps a little counterbalance to the diatribe of the Wall Street cheerleaders will provide some with a new perspective as it relates to their trading/investing goals.
Posted by: redclaydawg at
May 15, 2007 10:02 AM [link]
seems like the PM rally isn't in place just yet... stagnant prices on many miners, but major losses again on UXG and KRY...
2nd_ave, if you manage to time this right, my hat's off to you.
Posted by: Fazeli at
May 15, 2007 10:02 AM [link]
betting the PMs snap up from here...and i think it's only a 60/40 bet...i know bill's waiting for the rsi on wfmi to break 30 before taking a position, but he has a longer holding period
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 15, 2007 10:03 AM [link]
wavesmash: if only we had the guts to play with real money the way we do in fantasy land...maybe that's how jesse livermore did it..
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 15, 2007 10:05 AM [link]
NGX
A few days ago, there was some interest in Northgate, (NGX). To me, it looked to still be trending lower and I opined that it might be too early to buy. This morning I couldn't resist the "sale" price and bought some more, (I've been holding some of this stock for several years). We'll see if I'm too early myself ...
Posted by: manx928 at
May 15, 2007 10:07 AM [link]
at this stage in the bull market, with all the cross currents, and half waiting for a big pull back/half waiting for a big snap up, it's all gaming...so i guess i'll enjoy myself...i wouldn't risk too much capital, but try to have some fun...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 15, 2007 10:08 AM [link]
I spend almost 3 hours last night reading "Come into my trading room". Finished only 1/4th of the book, and I realize that I am a sleep walking trader.
Still could't resist buying BMD and MPEL today morning.
Posted by: JogyP at
May 15, 2007 10:09 AM [link]
and there you have it 2nd_ave... nice little 1% turn-around in the past few minutes on a lot of the larger miners I watch... the smaller ones a bit less so!
Posted by: Fazeli at
May 15, 2007 10:09 AM [link]
LOL!
Seriously, if I stopped out yesterday (mpel) it's a screaming buy today! Note MPEL in the 14's and BMD at or near $3 USD is pretty good.
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 10:12 AM [link]
I had initially bought 1.2% position in GRZ...half for me when doing stocks. I look at it as a basket of gold miners. For etf's i have hard sell signals in mind, but fall short in a discipline for stocks. Today I'm ahead in the miners, as a group, due to gains in uxg and slw.
For those of us who have taken a stake in the PMs I presume this is the bet: inflation picture will be the 800 lb gorrila with rates being flat and the developing countries humming. And then get out of dodge and be happy to have a decent profit. My nerves are telling me I would rather be operating on rules, like Bill's AZ/DZ or my own relative strength ones. That way I'm more dispassionate.
I will not buy more GRZ. Anyone buying into weakness? My daily chart, at this moment, has it looking to put in a floor. Big volume, almost as much as all of yesterday.
Posted by: jasper at
May 15, 2007 10:14 AM [link]
Anyone catch the dip in MU?
I nibbled a bit.
Also one I haven't mentioned here, LOOP (loopnet) which is a commercial RE site.
Recommended last month in Motley Fool Hidden Gems.
One of my bright spots.
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 10:16 AM [link]
JogyP et.al. - without stops, I'd be KRYing a river. This morning GRZ has traded MUCH more volume than KRY - a reversal - and GRZ's price is still flat.
Perhaps GRZ is the saner trading vehicle. They'll get THEIR next bump with funding of las Brisas. And, so what they have to sell a few more shares.
The key thing now is to maintain momentum by placing that equity. Dilution is NOT a worry with such undervaluation relative to peers.
To all the bears of the world:
This market is flashing a strong BUY signal. We are probably going to see some incredible things in the markets. Don't forget that the great part of yhe gains come in the last part of the bull cicle .And that part hasn't started yet.
Sounds crazy?
You bet, but this are crazy times....
DCX WHR
I had shorted DCX in my play money portfolio over at bullpoo.com. Covered this am for 5% loss. I think WHR is a good short here. The MACD is going down and crossing the signal line. 77/81/65.
Posted by: holdenll at
May 15, 2007 10:25 AM [link]
Morning Bill,
Bought more of the dreaded little miner after today's drop, effectively adding to a losing position. Rules were made to be broken, and sometimes that's the only way to make $ on a trade. KRY does look to be a good bet here at $4.53
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 15, 2007 10:33 AM [link]
MPEL coming to you at 14.29 (USD)......52 wk low of 14.12 usd
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 10:34 AM [link]
For anyone who has an interest in Macau, you should take the time to listen to both conference calls of WYNN and MPEL. It is clear that one of these firms knows how to execute.
Also take note of who wants to be a price maker versus a price taker.
Posted by: Telestar3d at
May 15, 2007 10:39 AM [link]
Ouch! MPEL
I think I now undestand what a falling knife is!
Posted by: JogyP at
May 15, 2007 10:41 AM [link]
vgz looks like buy here @6.60
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 15, 2007 10:42 AM [link]
MPEL just completed its conference call. No new news really. Opened on the weekend with 26 VIP tables. Will add tables in staggered manner over next four weeks to an total of 80 tables. Missed their planned schedule. VIP rooms will be completed by end of July. No guidance given on future revenue. Capital expenses registered in Q2 will be on budget. City of Dreams phase will have scope change. Building 380 service apartments for sale.
I think that MPEL is a great long term investment. For the next few years it is really a development project. The key to look for in future financials will be development costs and schedule and whether they are on budget and on time.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 10:46 AM [link]
bmd: insiders bought last year between 3.19 and 3.85 USD (does anyone have access to insider info on canadian companies for reference?), and business outlook is unfolding as planned for '07. one insider sold 50K recently, but there are many reasons for raising cash. i don't think the owners are selling right now. davenport's target for bmd as of 12/06 was 8, will be looking for an update in the few weeks. small caps really get pushed around, but i guess that's where the opportunities are...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 15, 2007 10:47 AM [link]
Top of the Mornin to Everyone....
Here is Clive Maunds' take on the POG....
http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/may152007.html
Large Commercial short position hanging over
the scene....However, I bought all these PM stocks
with a longer term view in mind ...So I'll be watching and waiting for the Inevitable up-turn..
Long...WGI,UXG.wt,PG,G,SEG,CEF....
Posted by: DB at
May 15, 2007 10:49 AM [link]
Another note on the MPEL conference call. It was only half an hour long and there were very few questions. I don't know whether that has any significance.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 10:50 AM [link]
Bought full position of MPEL at 13.75. Ten year horizon.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 10:56 AM [link]
Looks like market melt up.
Nice move by STO after selling yesterday, probably related to oil price; BTW, thanks for yesterday's comments Bill.
KRY continues schizoid behavior.
Long STO and the schizoid one.
On another topic--After watching AG Alberto Gonzales testimony before Congress, I couldn’t help but think he’d be bounced immediately if he was the Fed Reserve Chairman. A few dozen “don’t recollect” responses wouldn’t be tolerated as Chairman even if the president stuck by him. But hey, it’s only our Justice system!
Posted by: Seamus at
May 15, 2007 10:59 AM [link]
Call must have been so-so.
MPEL at 14.20 or so after a bounce from 13.80's.
RSI 14 is just at 30
Looks to be finding a bottom.
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 11:01 AM [link]
JogyP -
I hope you are enjoying Elder's Come into my Trading Room. Alex is the first to say that his approach is just one approach (he's much more fixed now on the "impulse system"than when he wrote CIMTR.) Bill's trading of Cara 100's is more compelling to me really.
Elder's botoom line: end goal is to develop your OWN trading style, which fits your situation and personality. Ultimately, you're trading your PSYCHOLOGY more than the markets!
Still, the exercise of seeing how a disciplined trading approach is fashioned and how it works is VERY instructive I expect Bill's book will be spectacular in that regard! - Jock
"At the end of the day, however, I believe that the Gnomes and HB&B have decided to take the capital market, including PM’s higher. I could be wrong, but I’m sticking with my strategy for now."
Two hours later, Chief Falling Knife Catcher says, "Oh my gosh! Dow up +90 pts and PM's afire."
But trust me there are people out there who say I have no sense of the market! (LOL)
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 11:40 AM [link]
Fred's rockin' today.....
I'm busily picking up medium sized peices of the arse torn off yesterday.
Made note of stupid mistakes, back to Craig's hard and fast roolz.
Reparations proceeding better than expected.
Many THANKS to you all. I hope you're doing well today.
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 11:43 AM [link]
Craig,
I needed scuba gear yesterday.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 11:54 AM [link]
LOL! I'm a PADI Dive Master, maybe that's the problem....
You sure caught the BP on MPEL this AM.
That's gotta feel good. Nice work.
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 12:08 PM [link]
Any investors like Japan? Have a look at Nidec. The charts look good to me but, I'm new to this technical analysis chart reading. Fundamentals are solid and the stock has been hammered.
Sales: Record High (up 17.3% Y/Y)
Operating income: Record High (up 19.8% Y/Y)back to profitability.
I'm on the fence with this one right now because I'm not sure about Japan and YEN.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 12:16 PM [link]
Sorry, Nidec is ticker NJ.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 12:18 PM [link]
Mover in the oil patch: Canadian Oil Sands company IMO up 3.63% at this time on above average volume. At new high also.
No position.
Posted by: Seamus at
May 15, 2007 12:23 PM [link]
Craig,
I had my Advanced PADI 14 years ago. Dived in Australia, Sinai and Malaysia. Unfortunately, I let it expire. Who new I'd need it for this market?
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 12:23 PM [link]
exiting wfmi, gfi, slw...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 15, 2007 12:23 PM [link]
If you are addicted to your blackberry, you need this : http://www.bankersball.com/2007/05/12/blackberry-helmet/
Important news re E-gold from a long-time reader. I know Kaimu would say "I told you so."
----------------
Dear Bill:
Best wishes to you today.
Here is some news regarding problems in e-gold services (I recall that you had made comments last year saying that he was wary of such services), as well as US gold storage service BullionVault. (I could not post this to your comments today, as I could not log into TypeKey - please post if you think it is worthwhile)
1) US Government Forces E-gold Redemptions - Seizes Gold
http://www.moneynetnews.com/articles/54/1/US-Government-Forces-E-gold-Redemp
"The seizure order appears to be unrelated to the criminal case in progress against E-gold and OmniPay in that the seizure of the accounts by the government was done under a (separate) civil case, for which the Government has yet to file anything. By doing so, the government was able to seize accounts without having to reveal anything to the owners of the accounts themselves. By law, the government has 30, and possibly up to 90 days to file a complaint."
"MoneyNetNews has learned from a reliable source that e-gold has been ordered to hand over a fresh copy of the customer database when the redemption is completed.
Another reference & More details on the case:
http://cryptogon.com/?p=670
"E-gold, incorporated on the Caribbean island of Nevis but based in Melbourne, began offering Internet services in 1996. Gold & Silver Reserve Inc. operated e-gold and its Web site and offered a currency exchange called OmniPay. Services included checking, bill-paying and money transfers. The indictment charged that the company’s digital currency functioned as an alternative payment system and was purportedly backed by stored physical gold, which investigators said was on deposit in Dubai and Switzerland."
2) BullionVault is moving to a different professional bullion marketvault operator, from the USA to Switzerland.
"There have been growing stresses on our relationship with Brinks Inc, the US-owned vault operator, and it has become clear thatthey feel uncomfortable about continuing to vault BullionVaultgold. Why this might be so I am genuinely unable to say. Their exactreasoning has not been disclosed to us."
"Swiss ownership suggests an independence from some of thepressures which Brinks may have found themselves operating underrecently. Also you - our users - have chosen to vault 26 times asmuch gold in Switzerland as in the United States, so we believethis change will be both natural and welcome."
Full letter and comments: http://cryptogon.com/?p=525
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 12:31 PM [link]
London UK stockbroking analyst Deepak Lalwani offers some terrific insights into the important India market and economy.
http://www.billcara.com/Astaire%20India%20Report%2015%20May%20%2007.pdf
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 12:41 PM [link]
Hi...All
Would anyone care to comment on the impact of a potential Meltdown in the "Yen Carry Trade" on the POG and
PM shares ....
Let's just have a look at this possibility
looming on the Horizon...
Cheers............DB
Posted by: DB at
May 15, 2007 12:45 PM [link]
DB,
I guess the C.T. will be cut back after interest rates in Japan increase and they decrease in other countries. I'm looking at the reasons for that to happen. A crashing market would pull down international interest rates quickly, and that would also hurt PM stocks, at which point (just before it occurs) I want to switch back from PM miner stocks to bullion, as a relative weighting, and to reduce both as a portfolio weighting. I think the odds are good for 3Q07, which is why I hope we get the Summer rally here first, which would end when PM stocks spike to the top.
That's part of an answer. I'm sure others could add to the discussion, which I think would be a good one.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 12:52 PM [link]
Hi...Bill;
As a stop gap I'm using SDS as a bit of a safety net......I know that you do not recommend shorting the market indexes until the sentiment is pervasivly negative but I'm using SDS as insurance and will buy a lot more when the sentiment turns negative...
Looking for the next leg up in PM's for an unloading of PM shares....
As to what preciptates the collapse ....????
Your guess would be better than mine... but there are a myriad of scenarios that could cause the CT unwinding...
Cheers.....DB
Posted by: DB at
May 15, 2007 1:12 PM [link]
Bill,
I think this is your second post on India. I may have mentioned that I liked the chart of an India cef..had elements of your AZ with alerts to buy..so I did, fwiw. I used an ipath/etf hybrid/IPN.
In the latest post, today, I am struck by reference to "infrastructure". Could that be considered a category like energy, financials, retail,etc? The following article, I think, supports this view. As a stockholder of GE I hope that they are moving in the direction of being representative of a global infrastructure company.
http://www.indexuniverse.com
/JOI/index.php?id=822
In case one is interested in more reading:
from TSCM on May 3;
http://www.thestreet.com/p/pf/rmoney/
investing/10354669.html
Personally, I can not get access to the above link. I am not a subscriber but the author is well regarded.
Posted by: jasper at
May 15, 2007 1:13 PM [link]
Attached is a short article from the Economist regarding whether Japan should raise rates and what the internal impact might be. I think that if BoJ raises rates it will be because of foreign political pressures. From an economics and trade standpoint Japan is better off to keep rates as long as possible until the people of Japan rebel, which may be never. I wouldn't want to be holding stock in any Japanese exporters if they do raise rates.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 1:22 PM [link]
Article mentioned above: http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?story_id=9116738&fsrc=RSS
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 1:23 PM [link]
Go Rob McEwen! LOL
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1541335720070515
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 1:27 PM [link]
My only concern about trading the India market is that it is, like China, highly speculative, especilly the small and mid-caps that are not held by global capital managers.
Another issue I have is that it takes me more time to follow it closely than I have available. So, having been burned before, I'm now reluctant to call a cycle top. The market is such that it could drop 10 to 15 pct in a heartbeat right after my call, theoretically, and then zoom to higher levels. Unless I ALSO call a cycle bottom at the appropriate time, my words are out there on the Web indicating I'm negative, and that makes me look bad.
To resolve this, I'm thinking of starting a Fund for trading these markets, with help on my trading desk that would be enough to ensure I get the word out when I think a cycle top and bottom is in order. But that is not going to happen for a while. I need to first complete my projects and then move to Nassau to start the process there as required by the regulators. Nothing happens overnight.
Re DB's query of what could set off a selling wave, I think it usually starts in the upstairs trading rooms at HB&B. They are privy to lack of client orders/resources, clients/funds/dealers in trouble, and G-7 politics and moves by monetary authorities all ahead of the rest of us.
I somehow think the problem will be a drop in the Japan Nikkei Dow and the TOPIX, probably either bank or keiretsu-related.The Japanese equity market is the second largest and most important in the world.
Possibly there is a financial accident with a large financial services firm going down, taking a few counter-parties with it. But as that happens, usually the Fed and other affected central banks step in and crank up the money printing, which then sends PM into orbit, following which interest rates either rise and everybody suffers, or HB&B calls time-out and dumps on the market.
You've all heard of FIFO inventory? It's also First In First Out and HB&B does a marvellous job at that.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 1:34 PM [link]
the other day someone wanted ETF info - this is one nice looking chart to help sort it all out...
Posted by: rob d at
May 15, 2007 1:36 PM [link]
Now there's the guy we want to dive/fly with, eh Fred?
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 1:36 PM [link]
Letter just received:
Hi Bill,
This video by Columbia business school grads is good for a few laughs.
4 minutes, but I think well spent ;-D
Sir Banks - a - lot
"Baby got WACC"
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 1:43 PM [link]
Hi...Bill;
The Powers that be.. will flood the world with cash...Problem is that all these governments are printing money wide open now and have been doing so for a while..
The world is awash in U.S. dollars and M3 is still going up even though they won't publish it any more....
I see this situation quite differently than October 1987....This one is going to be a VERY BIG MESS....
The Printing Presses will not have the impact they have had in the past....
I had my first and so far only margin call in October 1987....Nothing like a margin call to to focus the mind....Hmmmm.....October 2007?????
Cheers..........DB
Posted by: DB at
May 15, 2007 1:54 PM [link]
Morgan Stanley's chief economist has written a short piece called "Past the Point of No Return". He states his belief that Washington is going to unwittingly lead the world into a trade war against China. I shudder at the implications.
http://www.billcara.com/MS%20May%2011%202007%20ROACH_US-CHINA.pdf
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 2:03 PM [link]
Hmmph! What pushed bonds off the cliff?
Inflation is under control right? ;-)
Also Bill, Duarte mentions that Richard Russell is now a bull and calling for a "Market Melt Up"
LOL, yeah there is money to be made I guess but not with $avings...
Posted by: agaunv at
May 15, 2007 2:04 PM [link]
I'm very disappointed that Alamos Gold has been so disappointing this year. Here is the BMO report:
Alamos Gold (AGI-TSX, C$6.73)
Market Perform Target: C$7.75
• Alamos reported the production of 25,310 ounces of gold from the Mulatos mine in Q1. Revenues were $17.0 million and the company recognized earnings of $1.2 million, or $0.01 per share.
• Production results were lower than our estimates for 38,797 ounces gold and financial results were short of our expectations for revenue of $20.2 million and earnings of $5.7 million, or $0.06 per share.
• The company continues to have difficulty with recoveries on the leach pad and had reduced its 2007 guidance at the end of last year to 45%.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 2:08 PM [link]
Gammon Lake is another disappointment that BMO has reviewed in their excellent Gold Weekly:
Gammon Lake Resources (GAM-TSX, C$15.70)
Outperform Target: C$25.00
• Gammon Lake reported production and revenue results for Q1/07, which marks the first quarter of commercial production at the Ocampo mine.
• The company produced 70,170 gold equivalent ounces (36,801 ounces Au and 1.6 million ounces Ag) in the quarter for revenues of $43.5 million. The company reported a net loss of $10.3 million, or $0.10 per share.
• Results were lower than our expectations for the production of 89,706 gold equivalent ounces (52,000 ounces Au and 1.8 million ounces Ag) and revenues of $58.3 million. We had been expecting earnings of $20.9 million, or $0.21 per share.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 2:09 PM [link]
Goldcorp is a company that BMO likes, and they have an Outperform rating on the stock. For the large cap gold miners, I prefer Kinross.
Here's the BMO reviews of both companies:
Goldcorp Inc. (G-TSX, C$26.95)
Outperform Target: C$36.00
• Goldcorp reported Q1/07 net earnings of $124.9 million or $0.18 per share. Adjusted for one-time items and unrealized gains and losses, EPS were $0.12. We had been expecting EPS of $0.13 versus the First Call Mean and Q4/06 result of $0.19.
• Production of 558,000 ounces had previously been released, but total cash costs of $181/oz were higher than our forecast of $158/oz and $160/oz in Q4/06.
• The cost increase was due to Marigold (pit wall instability, lower grades), and Alumbrera (lower copper by-product credits, YMAD royalty).
-----------------------------------
Kinross Gold Corp. (K-TSX, C$15.01)
Outperform Target: C$20.00
• Kinross reported Q1/07 basic EPS of $0.16. Adjusted for one-time items and unrealized gains and losses, earnings were $0.10. The result was above our estimate of $0.09, but below the First Call Mean of $0.11.
• Production of 389,394 ounces was above our forecast for 362,000 ounces, but reported cash costs of $328/oz were in line with our estimate of $327/oz.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 2:12 PM [link]
agaunv,
I'll ask again: since about 1997, when and at what Dow level did Richard Russell go Bullish, then Bearish, then Bullish again? Give me dates and DJIA levels.
In any event, regardless of track record, DTL's RR is one of the best financial writers in the business. Top Gun.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 2:18 PM [link]
Anyone? Iag seems to be a value - or close to it -dilution and mgmt seems to be the problem any thoughts from anyone? I lurk mainly and figured some here might have thoughts. Great board. I have learned much and I thank you all especially Bill - cheers
Posted by: moon at
May 15, 2007 2:42 PM [link]
Today’s report on CPI came at .4% . PPI(all commodities ) was .9%
In the last few years ,the PPI has been accelerating more rapidly than CPI.
The implication is for an overall stock market P/E contraction.
Ex-Fed Chairman Greenspan’s favorite way of measuring relative valuation
between Stocks and Bond is the Earnings-Yield to Bond-Yield ratio.
This ratio oscillates around one.
When should this ratio be above one?
The answer is: in an environment of PPI relative out-performance to CPI.
That is the environment we are in. This is due to the P/E contraction that
results when the PPI/CPI ratio goes up over time.
To see this behavior historically go to:
http://wrahal.blogspot.com/2007/05/earnings-yield-to-bond-yield-vs-cpi-to.html
Posted by: Will Rahal at
May 15, 2007 2:51 PM [link]
Action in the miners is very bad. I've trimmed back on my holdings singificantly today as I expect things to continue like this for awhile.
The action in stocks like SWC, UXG and URZ, for example, is particularly awful.
Posted by: number2son at
May 15, 2007 3:16 PM [link]
DB: "The Printing Presses will not have the impact they have had in the past...."
I agree. But in the short-term, the fire hose of extra liquidity after an "incident" will probably allow for one final spike in PM prices. Wait for it....
AZ_Cowboy
Disclosure: holding CEF, QID, SDS, SKF, URPIX.
Posted by: AZ_Cowboy at
May 15, 2007 3:29 PM [link]
yes, AZ_Cowboy,
I remember the Mexican crisis and the Fed response to the call for help in the early 1980's. Pump job, Fed rate rises, gold takes off, and, aha, so too does the equity market.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 3:36 PM [link]
I see AZ_Cowboy is hedged/short the NAS and the S&P, anyone else shorting these indexes/ETF's?
Posted by: Craig at
May 15, 2007 3:51 PM [link]
Hey..AZ_Cowboy;
Ahh...The last gasp...before the mess....
I'm watching ever so closely....
Bill....
I kinda have a softspot for Goldcorp..
Notwithstanding the Glamis takeover stuff..
The fishing in Red Lake is great....
The lowest cost,Unhedged Major in the World..
Production ...2.5 million ounces a year and growing....
Lot's of stuff in the ground...
The Jockey's yes I agree they are a little light
on the share ownership thing...
Penasquito will be expensive to bring on line..
But...If Rob Mcewen is even half right on his POG price predictions then I think Goldcorp will be Money machine..
Cheers.........DB
Disclosure: I own some G
Posted by: DB at
May 15, 2007 4:12 PM [link]
Craig,
I'm holding some QID, but that was a poor choice that I learned from. I bought it during a decline in the market, gained something like 6-8% in a few days, but then I decided to hold it. I watched it stagnate for a while and then I left the country for two weeks (with no access to trading). I come back and it's -10%. I'm just waiting for it to recover now. So I'm holding it, but it's just to make up for the fact that I held it while it declined quite a bit.
Posted by: korvus at
May 15, 2007 4:21 PM [link]
Where did the dip buyers go today ? To ChinIndia for bargain hunting. Oh Yeah !
Posted by: marginnayan at
May 15, 2007 4:27 PM [link]
Bill: You've asked about RR. With the advent of new record highs in the; D-J Industrials, Transports, Utilities, the NYSE Composite, the S&P 400, the S&P 600, the ValueLine, the Russell 2000 and 3000 combined with breadth highs in the S&P 400, 500 and 600, this forced a pause for cause.
Market action of April 20 and 25 was something that is extremely rare. On those two dates all three Dow Jones Averages -- Industrials, Transports and Utilities -- closed at simultaneous historic highs. RR would say that no one would understand the significance of these two rare events.
His take is that something very unusual is taking place. The market made a "statement".RR advocates that the stock market (and the Dow Theory) told us that an unprecedented world boom lies ahead.It probably has to do with unbridled asset inflation. The world no longer has the "gold system" to restrain it. The production of money and credit is expanding with no restraints. The economies of the world moving into uncharted waters.
His analysis paid particular attention to the DOW world average noting that a correction should halt at or near the 200 day moving average. After a pending correction the result could be a rise of major, even one of spectacular proportions among the US and the stock markets of the world.
RR now takes 1980-82 as the start of the bull market, at no time including the 1987 crash or the 2000-2002 collapse did the Dow ever give back more than 50% of its gains since 1982. Therfore he concludes that the primary trend of the stock market had actually remained bullish ever since 1980-82.
Primary trend therefore bullish as opposed to his call prior to April 27,2007 where he advocated an unfulfilled bear market. {Bearish in 1999 and Bullish April 27,2007)
Prior to that you're on your own!
Cheers
Posted by: strait at
May 15, 2007 4:40 PM [link]
Afternoon, Bill.
What an ugly intraday reversal. Let's see, Goldman $achs is down on China, aerospace, chips (amat), and is short gold. I think this big gorilla is ready to swing this market the other way. Maybe they'll downgrade the DJIA next. Too bad i sold my HON puts for a loss yesterday.
It could just the usual options week shakes, but it's time for this trader to lighten up and step aside. Still holding JBX, ICE and PM shares but otherwise in cash.
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
May 15, 2007 5:44 PM [link]
I was thinking about a negative remark I made this week about the White House, and I was wondering to myself how I could be more positive. Then Jess asked me why I wouldn't support Ron Paul (R) who is running for President in 2008.
And why not! I met Dr. Paul in the early 1980's in New Orleans where he was an outspoken supporter of hard money. He impressed me then. He impresses me today. And he has impressed many of you who have written me about him.
Here's his video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWfIhFhelm8
When I listen to him, it's like an echo in the room.
So why don't we support him for President in 2008! I think we should organize the word among bloggers to see how much money we can raise for his campaign. One thing is for sure, there won't be a better choice on the ballot.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 6:09 PM [link]
bmd-on days like this it's nice to know insiders hold >7% of the shares. for stocks that may end up being a 3 to 4 bagger, you almost have to forget about them...otherwise, you always sell a few years early ;) i'm trading a core position in one account, and trading the stock in another...hoping if i don't see the core position, maybe i WILL forget about it..
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 15, 2007 6:13 PM [link]
make that "holding" a core position in one...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 15, 2007 6:15 PM [link]
If weakness is coming I believe the proper short will be low quality stocks. A rough proxy for that is RU2K. It is overvalued (what isn't?).
FD: Hedged with RU2K puts.
Posted by: MarkM at
May 15, 2007 6:18 PM [link]
Bill -
Another secondary source for Russell's posture prior to the mega-bull call @ http://www.marketthoughts.com/dow_theory.html.
I read elsewhere some anecdotal reports of a bull2bear switch as early as Spring 1998 (but no clean sources).
With 200d SMA around 12,200 (and climbing at 10+ pts clip per day), it looks to me that Russell espouses the standard Wall Street wisdom of a 10% correction on the dot that refreshes the bull run and propels the markets to the orbit.
I am still puzzled, however, by his reversal on his previous bear call because indices did not give back 50% during 2000-03 "correction". Sounds like a bit of massaging of the record and (well-deserved) liberty with history on his part IMHO.
JML
Posted by: Jumble at
May 15, 2007 6:19 PM [link]
n2son-
About a week ago someone was crowing about a one day reversal (up) in gold after gold failed to break the 700 Club for the umpteenth time and reversed. I said my charts and read said correction wasn't over. We are tring to base but action in miners was/is very iffy. Miners usually lead.
Stubbornly yours,
Posted by: MarkM at
May 15, 2007 6:46 PM [link]
Noting that the CPI today confirmed that there is no inflation (i.e. thats if you live in the south pole), today's mid-day reversal may be a set-up for a S/P strike/market sell off at 1525 or 1550 (my thinking is the latter within 4 weeks but havnt checked minis, other options action). Noting the run in '07 that many of my juniors have had, such a pullback would not be out of the realm of imagination. Curious to see if one will be able to hedge with Yen and then role profits into miners on the retrace-time will tell!
Posted by: Rick45 at
May 15, 2007 6:53 PM [link]
Web question...When using the tiny url link,
javascript:void(location.href='http://tinyurl.com/create.
php?url='+location.href)
does anyone else get a warning that from their virus software (i have microtrend) that it is "dangerous", ie spyware lurking?
Posted by: jasper at
May 15, 2007 6:55 PM [link]
FYI established a position last week at $ 83 per
FXY, now I can say I own a foreign currency.
Wouldnt mind having some Canadian Dollars, $ 91 handle now!
Posted by: Rick45 at
May 15, 2007 6:56 PM [link]
I received this letter about one reader's very positive experience with Ron Paul. For privacy reasons I removed the State in question.
------------------------------------
When I was a page for the House of Representatives, I had the pleasure of having a very lengthy sit down with Congressman Paul. Mind you, I was 16 years old... but he had over an hour to share to discuss with my friend and I the issues of the day. He had no need to, I'm not from Texas, but from (ANON). He's a lot like you; very generous with his time to talk and teach about what has experienced and learned in the world. Besides being correct on a lot of issues, he is a down to earth, honest to goodness thoughtful and caring human being.
--------------------
You know, I think we would find a lot of that with VIP's in Washington, despite our constant put-downs, but I would be surprised if many people who ever crossed paths with Ron Paul had a bad thing to say.
More importantly for the nation, it's what that man says, how he votes, and who's pocket he's in (nobody in his case), that counts.
I'm sure the Dem's have somebody like him, and being fair, I think we should try to find someone on that side who compares. John Edwards possibly?
Looking ahead, I think by the time November 2008 rolls around, there's going to be a lot of water under the bridge. Hopefully America can dismiss the past and the poison-filled campaigns, and get down to the serious business of electing somebody they can still respect after 4 or 8 years.
Regardless of who wins, capital markets will remain intriguing.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 7:06 PM [link]
The web stats show a new all-time record number of hits yesterday: 360,153. Almost 400,000 in a single day. Awesome! Thank you. I feel 22 again.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 7:34 PM [link]
Kaimu,
You mentioned Kalimantan Gold a couple of weeks ago. I was reading about the company and noticed that the corporate office is in White Rock and the CEO is Doris Meyer. I live in White Rock, and being curious, I googled Doris Meyer and found that she is a director, corporate secretary and/or CFO to several other gold miners, all using her White Rock address. Miranda Gold, Asia Pacific Resources, Sunridge Gold, Crescent Resources and Queenstake. According to the information I read, at one time she was employed by Queenstake and left to start her own company, Golden Oak Corporate Services. I'm not personally interested in finding any more junior explorers (I have too many now) but, thought that you might find this information interesting.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 8:15 PM [link]
"I'm sure the Dem's have somebody like him, and being fair, I think we should try to find someone on that side who compares. John Edwards possibly?"
Since I'm a political agnostic these days, the Dems on the board will have to nominate a name that stands for those same virtues that you see in Congressman Ron Paul. But John Edwards? Not even on the long list much less the short list in my opinion.
Posted by: MarkM at
May 15, 2007 8:20 PM [link]
Kaimu,
In addition, she is associated with Midway Resources. Next door houses Adanac Moly, Golrea and Molycor.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 15, 2007 8:25 PM [link]
There was an article on seeking alpha today that said WFMI had missed earnings on 4 of last 6 reports and same store growth only 0.3% last quarter. In any case, made me rather reluctant to buy on technical indicators.
Anyone want to play God's Advocate (lol) and give some reasons to believe things will turn around from a fundamental standpoint?
http://retail.seekingalpha.com/article/35617
Posted by: chas at
May 15, 2007 8:51 PM [link]
Bill,
Watched the Ron Paul video. What a perfect platform! This is what America needs, and hopefully the GOP, then the public will realize it and elect someone who will make a real change.
Posted by: chas at
May 15, 2007 9:12 PM [link]
I think all traders should dig into the BMO/Optionable story. Today Financial Post did a remarkable front page article. The graphic showed that the price of OPBL was $7 at the time that BMO revealed a $350-450 million natural gas loss, not indicating at the time there had been some funny stuff going on in the closet.
When BMO brokers were fired and the Optionable chairman resigned, shortly after, the OPBL was trading about $5.30. Then six days later, BMO suspended dealings with Optionable and the price was $4. Two days later FP reported that the Deloitte's auditors had discovered "serious mismarking" of the fired BMO broker's book of trades. That was May 10 and the stock had fallen to $3. Yesterday the Optionable CEO quit and the stock went to pennies.
There are lessons to be learned here: (i) FP stayed with a terrific story (ii) traders had every chance to sell before losing all their capital, and (iii) HB&B assets go down the elevator every night. Hopefully they go home with a clear conscience and get a good night's sleep. That isn't always the case, and often it is not the fault of the firm or the culture of the industry or whatever. Sometimes it is the greed in individuals that pushes them over the line.
Think about it. Whenever any client thinks that might be happening to them, it is up to the client to speak up. And if you are a trader caught up in these situations, sell. Don't pass go.
Never look back, however, because sometimes it doesn't work out the way you think it will. Look at Apple (NDQ:AAPL), for instance. I will never trade AAPL stock because I personally believe, from what I have read and experienced in all the years since that company has been operational, that it is a financial accident in the making.
Apple, btw, has performed in the consumer marketplace beyond all expectations, and that's great for the shareholders, and the customers. My point is that it could one day be an Optionable. I made up my mind; there are tens of thousands of other stocks on the board, and I decided to look there.
That's all about me and not you. As long as I explain my bias, and you are reading it, then I don't feel bad.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 9:28 PM [link]
Traders involved in the Yen carry trade are not the typical "gold longs". Many of these traders are momentum traders who have a negative bias towards gold due to their environment. IMO, if the Yen carry trades unwinds, the STORY will be that gold is falling due to the unwinding, but that will be a cover (because it is false) to push the price of gold lower in order to buy.
IOW, the Yen carry trade should not have a large effect on the gold trade - other than the bs put out by HB&B on CNBC to profit from their shorts only to go long on their own client's selling at the bottom of that cycle. IMO of course.
Other than R. Paul, ALL politicians are crooks.
Posted by: g034 at
May 15, 2007 9:30 PM [link]
Fred,
The INFO database at the TSX is a terrific facility for finding out "who sleeps with whom". I have too much trouble navigating their website, however, so to prevent frustration, hopefully you will point to the readers how to discover the wonderful INFO you presented.
MarkM,
I'll take your lead on Sen. Edwards. Like you he's an American and a lawyer, and I gather you have more than a passing acquaintance with politics. I'm just pressed to come up with a name to plug for the Dems. I'm trying to be balanced here. "My" Oprah likes Obama but what will the dirty political campaigns do to him? I wonder. Despite all I have written. I really like Hillary too, but I don't care to open up that discussion.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 15, 2007 9:42 PM [link]
Hi Bill,
Politics is one thing that revs my engine. I always look at the landscape independently because I am more interested in the strategy that moves politicians into power than the politician.
As of today, Obama is the man to beat. He is a little quiet at this juncture and should be a little louder but his style and image are way ahead of his peers. If his people can cut deals with the right "bankers" then he could pull away from Hillary.
As for the smear campaign to come. I like the fact that Obama has already put negative stuff about himself in a prior book. The key is how he handles himself when the "swift boat crew" appear.
I promise you that the campaign to come will raise your hopes in America (that is, until about 6 months after the inauguration).
Posted by: cb at
May 15, 2007 10:58 PM [link]
I support Ron Paul precisely because he is a sterling anomaly among career politicians: straightforward, articulate and commonsensical.
Sadly, our government has ceased to be "of the people, by the people, for the people". Both major parties have contrived opaque and shadowy governments "of the ignorant, by the corrupt, for the privileged".
Among announced candidates of either major party I do not see any viable hope for redress of decades of malfeasance and mischief: they all seem lobbyist shills or outright fools.
Virginia Senator James Webb shows great promise, but is not a candidate for the Presidency.
Posted by: johojo at
May 15, 2007 11:07 PM [link]
Jasper,
That line of javascript tells your browser to go to the script generated page at tinyurl.com/create.php. It also passes the address of the page containing the link you clicked to the script on their server. This can trigger a spyware alert because the monitoring program views that address as personal information being sent to the server using javascript; however, TinyURL's use of the information is not dangerous in this context. It could be a problem if a TinyURL link were used within a secure setting such as a banking site or trading interface. Actually, this information gets sent all the time in what is known as a referrer header when your browser is not in secure mode. TinyURL may be trying to workaround problems with certain browsers in what they see as an unusual but more reliable manner. Again, no danger here, but it could be a potential opportunity for abuse by anyone who hacked tinyURL if you were using their links in a secured site that stored important information in the URL code.
Posted by: Skrymir at
May 16, 2007 2:19 AM [link]
Just wondering if "David" would be so kind to share his code for the Worden pcf's for monthly & weekly RSI? I would really appreciate it.
Thanks
-Bucktooth
Posted by: bucktoothjmurray at
May 16, 2007 7:27 AM [link]
I was the Dwight Chapin of Illinois politics back in the day. Rick45 likely knows that name.
I, too, have trouble coming up with a name. Despite all his baggage, I think Obama has a good shot. I like Mark Warner as my outsider.
Posted by: MarkM at
May 16, 2007 8:50 AM [link]
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Junk Bonds May Repeat Crash of 2002 on Increasing LBO Credits / make sure you read the part about “toggle bonds”
Banks significantly tightened real-estate loan standards
compare this with the german number of 40% of banks easing!
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
Posted by: jmf![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
May 15, 2007 8:33 AM [link]