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May 17, 2007
Cara’s Daily Board, Thurs., May 17, 2007, 8:18 AM
Wednesday was an afternoon delight for the Bulls. A Dow triple-digit gain (+103.69 pts +0.77 pct) and an even stronger NASDAQ (+22.13 +0.88 pct) was carried by Technology, Financial, Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors having gains of +0.9 pct to +1.0 pct. Market mania took control as ESL Investments of hedge fund manager Fast Eddie Lampert (Sears SHLD) took a position of 15.24 million shares in Citigroup (C +4.0 pct).
Near the end of February Forbes asked me to review Citigroup for their Forbes Billionaires issue. The stock had been in a free fall from over $53, so I said that after a brief respite into the high 40’s, I could see strong prices ahead. The stock dropped to $47.57 in mid-March and then started to lift.
After almost two months, C lifted all the way to $54.50 before tailing off a bit (as RSI and MACD peaked), until Lampert shows up at the scene. Lift-off.
Now you know why they call it smoke and mirrors. How many days is it that the talk about town was that Citi might be split up? Take-over, re-org, merger, added dividend, mega-billion dollar share buy-back… does it really matter these days. It’s all about juice for the rally.
So when the New York State Attorney General of New York sues Dell for deceptive sales practices, what happens? DELL rockets +5.1 pct.
It doesn’t matter folks, this is Monopoly Money were playing with. The Bulls will try to convince you this market has been sent over the moon by rapidly improving fundamentals. But who’s kidding whom?
Last evening CNN breaks a story of how the White House tried to take control of the Justice Department that was going to rule against the President who believes he has the God-given right to wire tap anybody in the world for the sake of national security. Stunning.
Somehow this all fits the picture I see with the stock market. Whatever the President wants, the President gets.
Makes you wonder how some of these corporate stock option back-daters seem to be getting off the hook. Word from the White House perhaps?
There looked to be a few losers yesterday until the afternoon rally chased the Bears. With easing tensions in Nigeria, and a larger than expected build (+1.7 Mil bbls) in gasoline supplies in the morning’s weekly EIA Petroleum Status report, the crude oil, natural gas and gasoline futures dropped. The Energy sector ETF (XLE) dropped -0.7 pct in the morning, but then closed up +0.4 pct at the end of the day and the Oil Services ETF (OIH) fell -0.8 pct in the morning and closed up +0.5 pct. The price of the $WTIC hit a morning low of $63.20/bbl, down from $66.78/bbl at the end of March and $66.70 at the end of April, but rallied a bit at the end of the day to close at $63.95.
The build in gasoline inventory put refined gasoline down -2 cents/gal in the morning, but by the close prices were up +3 cents/gal. The refiners group saw profit-taking though. Valero (VLO -2.6 pct in the morning, closed down -1.0 pct) and Tesoro (TSO -3.6 pct in the morning, closed down -2.1 pct) were let go.
But these are two stocks that look awfully vulnerable to a sell-off. Have a look at Tesoro Petroleum. StockCharts calls it a Double Bottom Break-down on the P&F charts for TSO. Ominous sounding term, double bottom break-down. VLO, while also gloomy, is apparently not so bad.
It was that kind of day. Even the gold stocks ($XAU) looked like they would tank big time came back from a $134.48 low to close at $136.14, although still down -1.0 pct on the day.
Today we get the US Jobless Claims, the weekly EIA Nat Gas Inventory, and the Philly Fed Survey.
This Dow 30 monitor shows that Citi (C +4.02 pct D/D) juiced the market.
“Market mania has taken control in Asia-Pacific markets,” again today. All green arrows in the blue sky.
Rising markets in Europe early today at 6:27am ET.
The $USD at 81.156, and a high of 82.261 a few minutes ago, appears to be ready for a drop. If so, that will goose the PM’s.
U.S. Treasury Bond Jun. 2007 contract
The T-Bond appears headed further down from here. Let’s see how yields move today.
The $WTIC had been in a rally mode until a few minutes ago when it got smashed after hitting a 63.100 high, now at 62.875 (8:05am ET).
Gold Jun-07 contracts on the NYMEX
At the end of yesterday’s session, gold futures dipped sharply.
The spot gold market at 8:10am ET dropped to 661.50, down from an overnight high of 664.40.
More pressure here, but lets see how the morning plays out.
Spot silver prices (last at 12.82, down from an overnight high of 12.93, are getting hit since 7:30am.
As of 8:11am ET, Spot Platinum has been getting smashed for 25 minutes. Now 1303, down from an overnight high of 1315.
This is not pretty, but may just be another test.
Spot Palladium hit a high of 360 just before 5am ET, but has been getting smashed since then and is now (8:11am ET) down to 352-353.
Copper near futures chart. chart
$COPPER rose to a record high on Fri May 4, but, according to StockCharts.com, suffered a ‘Double Bottom Breakdown’ on Point & Figure charts, May 9. The Daily price series data chart shows clearly a PPO breakdown as the short-term data line fails to cross up through the long-term line (signalling a continued bull) and ends up just falling. Yesterday morning, $COPPER suffered a total breakdown in the morning.
I warned. Here’s what I wrote yesterday in this space, “I feel the price will soon set a new all-time high record as I cannot see much slowdown in demand by China. Construction there is simply at too fast a pace. The charts, however, are admittedly not showing the same enthusiasm for $COPPER at this point.”
So that was my chart-reader self saying “I do not like what I see coming according to the chart” but I do think the broad market is going to get its “Viagra Moment” during the day, which should bring out the sell-side reports of booming econ conditions in China. Besides, I believe those stories of China.
Well, here’s my problem with the extremely bearish picture for $COPPER. Why would there co-incidentally be a crash in copper, and a crash in all the PM group, a simultaneous crash in oil and a boom in the $USD and $USB (long Treasuries). I mean, why would money move like that when at the same time yesterday morning, the US Industrial Production number was reported at +0.7 pct, ie, renewed growth in what has been a dismal US manufacturing sector (consensus had been just +0.2 pct), and New Housing Permits dropped in April -8.9 pct from March and -28.1 pct Y/Y, while Housing Starts rose +2.5 pct, following a prior month’s increase of +0.3 pct.
In other words, there was no economic data yesterday morning that pointed to either a rapid rise or slowdown in the economy. How is it then that all this other action hit the fan simultaneously? I believe it happened because a Treasury Secretary and a Fed chief and their friends at “Gold”man wanted it that way. It was just a few days earlier that the “Gold”man opined strongly that China was closing shop, yada yada. Then ex-“Gold”ie Eddie Lampert (former head of Goldman Sachs' risk-arbitrage desk and operator of a hedge fund that is financed by Goldman Sachs who likes to pay himself some $500 mil to a bil a year) reports to have put on a humungous position in Citigroup days after the word hits the Street that Citi just might be broken up into small pieces that Private Equity could swallow. Interesting. Citi is one of the heaviest weights in the Dow. The timing of all this is just too co-incidental for my tastes.
To put it bluntly (as usual), I think there has been an intervention here. Maybe we should be counting the times Fast Eddie and Fast George sit down to break bread? You have to know ex-Goldie Chair and present Treasury Sec Hank Paulson is going to be there. Maybe ex-Goldie Chair, recent ex-Treasury Sec and current Chair of Citigroup Exec Committee, Bob Rubin could join them.
I mean, these guys seem to be patterning themselves after the Chinese Communist Party Exec Committee. Is this really what Americans expect of their leadership?
Now you see ex-Treasury Sec John Snow as the new head of Cerberus Capital Management, one of America’s monster Private Equity firms that borrows mightily from HB&B sitting down to feast on a meal of Chrysler, for which he paid $7.4 billion for an 80 pct interest. Well Cerberus couldn’t write the check itself; that was HB&B, which just happens to be (drum roll) Citigroup, which as syndicate head also ponied up the $10 billion Cerberus needed to finance General Motors Acceptance Corp (GMAC). And of course, it was the govt’s Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) that got into the middle of the act as regulator of Industrial Lending Companies (ILC) (drum roll… a bank), which GMAC would become. GM stock, hence, has been saved by the feds, Cerberus, Citi, and others in that ring. And what stock in the Dow 30 has been leading the charge in the past year, while financially totally insolvent if you rightly add in unfunded pension liabilities they would need the Administration/Fed (ie, the taxpayer) to pay off.
All this sucks. I have never seen such complicity between the Administration and HB&B and gnomes like Fast Eddie ever before. And man are these guys getting theirs.
Meanwhile the Average Joe is trying to make sense of it. Why even bother? Out of the room, out of the deal! These people don’t even keep Minutes. And if any of us requests docs under the so-called Freedom of Information Act, some lowly file clerk 1000 levels below these guys conveniently files our letters under “G”.
So, in a nutshell, I can blog on about how markets are supposed to work, but the plain vanilla truth is that at this time, in this America, free markets have been taken hostage, and moreover if you voice your opposition, one of the White House media friendlies like a Larry Kudlow is going to rip your heart out. (“How dare you speak out against “Goldie”locks!”)
I can hear it now.
The commodity rally that started in mid-January and ended in mid-April is being forced into a technically bearish position (at yesterday’s close of 310.12) just below the 50-day Moving Average (311.44) and the 200-day MA (311.23) – how controlled is that!
Yesterday I wrote, “But I do admit the chart is not that bullish looking at the moment. Perhaps by the WIR this week there might be a change in the picture.” The day only dropped -0.36 (-0.12 pct), but my disappointment clearly is in the market’s action, which is anything but free and easy.
Yesterday, I wrote, “This is a challenging time for PM share traders, but, yes, I believe the Summer rally is about to start – although I agree that the charts do not reflect my enthusiasm. Mostly, I am looking at a break-out ready to happen for the Euro, the Treasury yields, the PM bullion prices, and so forth.” Tough day yesterday as the metals and oils and PM’s were trashed in the morning, which conveniently kick-started another equity and debt market rally.
Well, KRY gained +0.9 pct in the US and +1.5 pct in Canada yesterday on a total of 6 million shares. But, little else looked good.
Cara 100 Stockwatch
Here are the Cara 100 gainers yesterday.
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers
Here are the top Cara 100 losers yesterday.
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)
AMAT was the biggest loser for two straight days after a downgrade.
There were 9 stocks of the Cara 100 for yesterday that hit 52-week intra-day highs and two that found lows.
Here, from “Chris”, are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from “Chris”:
There are now 8 Cara 100 Company stocks that are below 30 on the Daily RSI-7 versus 13 above 70, using data from “Chris” – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which he takes from Worden.
Btw, all charts from all sources I use have formally permissioned me to do so. After the Website/blog gets a make-over that will be made clear in the presentation. I decided to start doing things right. I mean when you have a blog that hit a record 360,000+ hits a day and has a daily run rate exceeding a quarter million, you have to know people are watching.
Here, from “David”, are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest Daily RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values.
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with highest RSI-7 with Monthly-Weekly-Daily all either >70 or <30
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with RSI-7 Daily all >70 or all <30.
Stockcharts.com also calls the smash to Whole Foods Market (WFMI) on May 10 a Double Bottom Breakdown. In the 40’s the Cara Community is now looking at the whites of their eyes. Back to 2H04 prices and EVERYBODY including every top decile Fund manager in the business has paid a higher price. We have been waiting patiently for this time. RSI-7 at 276/27.9/24.0 for the M-W-D. As soon as the Daily pops back above the 30 line, that is a Buy Alert for me. Of course, I also want to see a favourable MACD and STO.
Also, have a close look at Starbucks (SBUX), which has a RSI-7 at 31.8/24.3/13.0 for the M-W-D. We’re back to Oct-05, and nobody on this earth (except management options maybe) has paid less! A few days of the Daily RSI being down below 15 and the Monthly will drop below 30. Bingo after that happens, if followed by a pop to 30+ for the Daily RSI-7.
But, again, these are just indicators. Traders also look at the broad market and the corporate filings and Wall St. research before stepping in.
The trick to gaining confidence here when you see stocks of quality companies get hammered like these is to ask yourself seriously if you’d pay 25 for a SBUX that twice in 2006 hit 40. If you would, then write the 25 puts and either have the stock put to you at 25 less the premium, or earn the premium for the “risk” you took in trying to buy SBUX at a firesale price, and missing out.
Do the same for WFMI with a 37.50 put write, if you are a nervous nellie. WFMI is at 39.82 and the stock hit a high of 73 in 2005 and again in April 2007. In the 30’s, WFMI is completing its long-term bear phase.
Further to my recent comments about Apple (NDQ:AAPL), highly-regarded reporter Herb Greenberg says that disclosure/transparency is an issue with that company.
Lehman upgraded GM and the stock led the DJIA. What else can I say; Lehman sits on the Board of the Federal Reserve Bank. Independent traders are left wondering why Lehman, which had rated GM under-weight all through the powerful bull move, now gives them an upgrade.
BMO likes LVS, calling it an Outperform.
There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website updates in the morning.
Wrap up:
The survey results will be reviewed later today. Truthfully, I haven’t had a chance to review them. I better slow my pace though because I still have a sinus infection that hasn’t gone away in four months.
The good news is that (i) I feel 98 pct better, and (ii) the Web stats are mind boggling. Over 10,000 hits every hour of every day this month (a rate of 90 million per year), from 38,441 unique servers so far this month. Our biggest day of bandwidth usage this month was 11.6 Gigs – yes, in a single day.
Not bad for a guy six years retired who starting learning how to blog just three years ago, and so far puts on this show by himself, for two hours a day, from a laptop in his home.
I just wish I knew what a ‘plug-in’ was. This MT blog publishing software I use is built for Comp Sci PhD’s and I’m stuck in the first chapter of the manual. I constantly feel like that competition log cutter from Quebec who wanted to know what that noise was coming from his competitor’s saw.
But changes are on the way. Through a growing network of volunteers and a core group of professionals, I will in June introduce a new look to the Website and a new Cara Micro-cap 100 Monthly Report. Everything looks positive.
I am so looking forward to finally moving to Bahamas. Six weeks and counting. Then I plan to get down to business to complete the book (“Lessons of the Trader Wizard”) for September publication.
Between doing that and hosting some of you, there will be no laying around on a beach for me. Lots to do, people to see. Thankfully.
Takes my mind off these crazy days in the market.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 17, 2007 08:18:52 AM | Category: Cara's Bull Board
Discourse
Looking over our portfolios this morning. My wife and I were at all-time highs at the end of March. Now it's 2 and 1/2 months later and the indexes are at new highs, whereas I'm down almost 12% and my better half is down a little less than 3%. I can attribute my performance to gaming the market, but you know, my only gains were on reckless impulse trades...all of my well-thought out trades hit me for a loss. The only control I have over the market is my response to it, and the most important one is cutting losses early. 12% is big when you're raising three kids...15-20% would seriously ruin my day...
Back to watch and wait mode, which is something my wife handles much better than I do. Still long BMD, but trying not to watch it.
I just don't know if this is a good time to be in the market...good luck to all...
Posted by: 2nd_ave ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
May 17, 2007 8:48 AM [link]
2nd,
It's sector rotation. Like me you carefully watch your individual trees while the entire forest moves. So while the noise is "record highs" in this or that index, all the while the mkt is really very narrow and only a few stocks are moving. See the adv/decline stats.
On BMD, since you turned me on to the analysts reports, I'll reiterate their warning of volatility in BMD and buying at or below 3.10 to help weather it. If it makes you feel any better my usual stop loss is 8% and I'm down approx. 9.5% on BMD but added to my position yesterday below $3. It's a long term hold.
Where I'm getting killed is the PM's. Not so much bullion as I have a decent basis, but UXG is not my friend right now.
Hang in there.
Posted by: Craig at
May 17, 2007 9:00 AM [link]
2nd Ave -- not sure if this will be helpful, but as a father of twin 6 year olds and a non-professional investor with a real career totally unrelated to the stock market, i can tell you that actively trading can be really painful at times. Last years gold plunge was excructiating for many, and caused me a number of fitful nights as I watched a 29% return through May turn into a 5% loss in a little less than a month. But with patience and good decisionmaking (and reading this site, of course) I turned it around to about 19% on the year. I also learned that you should never invest beyond your comfort level or those fitful nights will turn into fitful weeks and months... Just hang in there. Everything is cyclical in this game, its just a matter of being a little more patient sometimes...
Posted by: EJStockman at
May 17, 2007 9:04 AM [link]
2nd ave.
What's your expectation in annualized gains on average? What's your goal?
Posted by: jasper at
May 17, 2007 9:34 AM [link]
Got Gold? - The Ron Paul Portfolio - courtesy of crossingwallstreet.com
Posted by: sergio at
May 17, 2007 9:36 AM [link]
John from the UK wrote as follows this morning:
-------------------
Hi Bill,
I see you have switched to the small gold miners,have you any suggestions as to one or two that may benefit in a possible upturn for gold that are listed on the LSE? I was looking at Highland gold !
----------------
Since John also offered me a remedy for sinus problems, I decided to look into Highland Gold. Here's the BMO report on April 30.
-----------------
Highland Gold Mining Ltd. (HGM-LSE, US$3.54)
Underperform (S) Target: na
• Highland reported a 2006 adjusted loss of $0.18 per share, below our forecast EPS of $0.01.
• The difference is primarily due to substantially higher operating costs. For 2006, total cash costs at MNV were $402/oz versus $344/oz reported in H1/06. At Darasun, total cash costs for 2006 were $1,993/oz compared to $983/oz in H1/06. The mine has been placed on care and maintenance.
• We calculate that the total cash cost for the company increased from $426/oz in H1/06 to $715/oz in H2/06, an increase of 68%. We had been expecting total cash costs of $395/oz.
• In 2007 the company expects production of 160,000-170,000 ounces from MNV at cash costs approximately 10-15% higher than in 2006.
-------------
I haven't looked at the chart yet, but the story doesn't look promising from the BMO research perspective or the statistical summary they report every week.
Sorry, I don't have another idea for a small cap PM on the LSE. Maybe the readers can help, bearing in mind that any "losers" might get panned by this totally independent and objective board.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 17, 2007 9:39 AM [link]
Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest man and known as Superman for his business acumen, says China's stock valuations ``must be a bubble'' and prices are likely to decline. Source: http://fon.gs/china/
Some China ETFs: FXI, PGJ
Posted by: SiO2 at
May 17, 2007 9:40 AM [link]
Bill and community,
What do you think a good time frame for a WFMI trade would be? Looking at the charts this seems to be getting very close to a long term cycle bottom, but where to from here? I'm inexperienced in the area of stocks responding to their cycle bottoms. Will it trade in a narrow and flat channel for a few months? Or would it be more likely to turn to a short term cycle high before Sept. or Nov? Any opinions? Same questions about SBUX.
My question is also leading up to the question about what to do when there are two areas that I believe good trades could be made. PM's and miners; and SBUX and WFMI. Would it be wise to try to play the PM's while I wait for SBUX and WFMI. Or move some smart money into the two, and use the rest for PM trades....
So many thoughts and questions... So little experience...
Also, Bill. Could you elaborate on what you consider to be positive MCAD and Sto signals?
Thanks,
Quentusrex
Posted by: Quentusrex at
May 17, 2007 9:43 AM [link]
jasper,
expectations-well, we are fortunately on track to retire "on time" if we can see a 7-10% annual return. we have the benefit of having done well in real estate. deferred compensation is high on the priority list, and i contribute the maximum to a 403b each year. we both love to trade, and have certainly seen our share of highs and lows. rule #1 has always been to cut losses early, which is really the only rule you need to survive. have seen many underwater positions go on to become big winners, so thank you all for the reminders about cyclical moves and the need to let certain positions play out.
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 17, 2007 9:49 AM [link]
2nd_ave,
If you don't mind my asking. What worked well for you in real estate? I'm currently in the position of trying to grow my portfolio to handle larger single investments such as real estate. What worked for you? What didn't? Did you map out any pitfalls that could be avoided? I can give you my e-mail if you'd rather not discuss on this board.
-Quentusrex
Posted by: Quentusrex at
May 17, 2007 9:59 AM [link]
Bill,
I think you have the oil chart in the USD spot.
I could be missing something.
Posted by: Craig at
May 17, 2007 10:11 AM [link]
quentusrex,
it was a no-brainer. both my wife and i bought in the bay area in the early 90's. i recall a few years (93-95) when it seemed like property values could only go down, but then they took off and never looked back.
we now have a son about to enroll in uc irvine, and are eyeing condos in the area sometime in the next couple of years. san diego is another area we would like to invest in. my brother-in-law is seriously into it--i think he owns 50 homes in several area of the US, all leveraged. he attends seminars all the time, and flies to wherever the deals are.
advice? once you buy, never sell. right now, i would give the real estate market plenty of time to bottom out, do a lot of reading, get to know a few agents and brokers you can trust (and who will hopefully tip you off when something good gets listed), visit open houses whenever you can (you can learn a great deal just by driving and walking around), then be ready to close quickly when the time comes.
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 17, 2007 10:18 AM [link]
2nd ave -
Don't you think in addition to cutting losses early, a couple of add'l key rules? - position sizing, so that a small % loss on a position can't be a large % of portfolio; retreat from mkt after 10% of portfolio drawdown (to regroup, bolster morale); and improve your setups so that a series of small "piranha bites" can't mean continued 10% drawdowns.
Hints for Universtiy/realty folks: Rentals in college/university areas are out of this world and have killer occupancy except sometimes in summer. Also good availability of realtors/managers who know how to make it work.
Posted by: Craig at
May 17, 2007 10:24 AM [link]
2nd_ave,
I'm currently in Seattle where single family homes are going for 400k-700k. I am looking more into the duplex market right now. I believe in paying more than 20%, and paying off the mortgate faster than normal. But I haven't cut my teeth on a purchase yet...
Posted by: Quentusrex at
May 17, 2007 10:25 AM [link]
2nd ave, congrats on your real estate success. If 7-10 percent is your goal, then it is practically "game over." I'd treasure your earlier success like a lioness guards her little ones. It is the turtle that wins the race. All advice that I wish that I had taken. I took some risks early in my investment life almost 30 years ago. The pay offs were grand but I squandered what could easily have become 10-30 million dollar account today...just by thinking like a turtle. We all have different lives and personhoods. Just my own free association when reading your post.
Posted by: jasper at
May 17, 2007 10:32 AM [link]
On China, a contrarian view:
Is the Chinese Market Overvalued?
Posted on May 9th, 2007 with stocks: CAF, FXI, PGJ
Raymond Li submits: Most US investors would consider mainland China stock market overpriced. That is because stocks are valued traditionally in PE ratio. According to the latest information available, the average PE ratio of Chinese stocks are at 42.8, based upon 2006 results. Using the same analysis, stocks in the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index have a PE ratio of 37.2.
However, if one looks at the valuation using the 2007 1Q results, one would see an entirely different picture. Out of the 1364 companies reported so far, the average earnings per share went UP 78.1%. I have also seen reports using aggregate earnings, those earnings have gone up over 45%.
With the strong economy, many Chinese companies are turning out record profits. Bao Steel last week reported a 154% earnings increase. China Life Insurance (LFC), CITIC Bank all reported record earnings. Most people do expect continued earning growth for 2008.
In conclusion, I think the Chinese stock market has gone up too much too fast. But based upon the traditional PE analysis, the market is not overvalued but rather than fairly valued. Just because the market may go down tomorrow, it does not mean it is a market bubble, because the earning fundamentals are very strong.
Posted by: kurtwalter at
May 17, 2007 10:35 AM [link]
2nd ave
"I can attribute my performance to gaming the market, but you know, my only gains were on reckless impulse trade"
I played the CNBC portfolio challenge starting on week 3 with reckless trades and ended with a gain of 24.5% (top 5%).
I don't do that well with my own investments. Is this the case of "analysis paralysis"? jk
Posted by: jk484 at
May 17, 2007 10:37 AM [link]
Good morning, Bill.
Great Daily Board writeup today. It's frustrating watching the action, very similar to the beginning of the year when all the commodities were taken down (however that proved to be a great buying opp, such as SLW at 8.90!!) I guess all you can do is make sure your portfolio is in a good position. Thanks for your continued guidance and stay well but please, be careful with that sinus infection.
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
May 17, 2007 10:37 AM [link]
There are times when I read comments that are reflecting back to a younger time that I feel really young. I'm in my early 20's, getting married on July 21st, finishing up my degree in Business Entr&Finance, and growing my computer and network service business... I'm just starting my portfolio... and learning a lot from the experiences shared.
Thank you to Bill, and the whole community,
-Quentusrex
Posted by: Quentusrex at
May 17, 2007 10:37 AM [link]
Continued sell-off of copper and PM this morning, but energy markets are stronger.
Either PM's base here or I don't see how much longer equities can stay high.
Strong dollar and weak bonds, strong energy and weak metals. A lot of cross-currents out there today.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 17, 2007 10:41 AM [link]
for the casino investors and good retail data:
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=774
QuentusRex- Seattle seems to be holding up (like my area northern NJ) but be patient. Little story - my inlaws bought their house in 1985 for $130,000. The next year the agent came back and offer them $230,00 0 for the house. In 1995, the houses next door and across the street sold for $160,000. Ten years - $30,000 increase. Mean reversion. It takes awhile for it to happen.
BTW heres a good tool for looking at listing prices in your area - you can check the region or even go city by city:
Posted by: rob d at
May 17, 2007 10:54 AM [link]
WHR up 1.48 at 113.07.
Possible reason for yesterdays dip
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070516/whirlpool_mover.html?.v=1
Does technicals really drive the price or the outlook? In this case both look good.
Posted by: JogyP at
May 17, 2007 10:55 AM [link]
Sergio: thanks for the link to Ron Paul's holdings, a real eye opener.
Does anyone know what is happening with Laramide (LAM on the TSX)? (a top pick of several visitors at BNN)
Posted by: SiO2 at
May 17, 2007 10:58 AM [link]
Correction:
"Does technicals really drive the price or the outlook? In this case both look BAD"
Posted by: JogyP at
May 17, 2007 10:59 AM [link]
re: iau....Broke through some key support ...while big picture this is a favorable base the rising support line break bodes poorly for the short term. 9-10% drop to longer term up trend line.
My hope is that the equity mkt churns, but not go down and the pm's have a chance to chop ahead.
Ughh
Posted by: jasper at
May 17, 2007 11:03 AM [link]
leading indicators
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070517/economy.html?.v=8
key lines:
"The reading tracks 10 economic indicators. Two of those readings were positive in April: stock prices and real money supply. The negative contributors, beginning with the largest, were building permits, weekly unemployment claims, manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods, consumer expectations, vendor performance, average weekly manufacturing hours and interest rate spread."
stock prices and money supply - OH YEAH! (sorry marginnayan - had to do it...)
Posted by: rob d at
May 17, 2007 11:06 AM [link]
Someone is still betting on a bad june. More than 10,000 VIX June 20 calls traded today. This comes
after 100,000 calls were traded in one day last week. The Vix today is 13.61. May just be a hedge, but still...
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
May 17, 2007 11:10 AM [link]
Bill, you wrote some days ago that "maybe" the market was going up to hide (with smoke and mirrors) a merger deal the Gnomes wanted and then, watch out. I'm paraphrasing your words. Are we there? Were Chrysler and Citi the deeds?
One small request, please consider a back to the top button at the end of comments.
Thanks for all you do.
gray
Like many of you, I am struggling with my PMs. One thing that has helped me a great deal is hedging my whole portfolio with TWM (about 60/40). I have lost some of the upside, but when it quickly turns, I can still sleep at night.
A good resource for this hedging program is Michael Price at www.ontrackreport.com. I think he has a seminar June 1-3. He is the only investor I know who teaches us how to hedge our portfolio during volitile times se we are not always jumping in and out. Has worked very well for me in keeping a longer term perspective.
Posted by: Tim47 at
May 17, 2007 11:27 AM [link]
Speaking of cross-currents, have a look at FXY. Almost touching the February low at 82.46.
As an indicator of the "carry trade" it's got a good inverse correlation to the SP500.
SPX/FXY
http://tinyurl.com/ywtmw8
Posted by: omphalos at
May 17, 2007 11:29 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
My comments on the the sale of 80 tons of gold in two months by the government of Spain a la Banco De Espana ...
OYE ... ESPANA ... HOLA !!!
Los idiotos a Banco Espana voy a comprar esta oro para precias mas bastante en tres anos! Que lastima para la pais y la jente de Espana ... Ahora ellos simpre tiene papel ... y papel para caca!! Hay muchos estupidos en Europa ... Mira ... soy la mismo para UK y France!
A e Y o U ... el burro sabe mas que tu!
As pointed out by others I am reminded about how many people lost their lives so that these governments of France, Spain and England could so easily toss their gold into the dumper for a pitance of paper! Remember it was not too long ago that the Spaniards were plundering the Incas and Mayans stealing all their gold and silver for the King and Queen. That was back in the day when government leaders knew the value of "real" money. In modern times governments only hold "inflation" and "faith" as value. Part of me wants to give those politicos a good slap in the face and yell "SNAP OUT OF IT!"
Posted by: kaimu at
May 17, 2007 11:31 AM [link]
Hi to all. This is such an informative site. Great job Bill (and all other contributors)!
As for the current move in PMs and currencies, the stars have gotten in line, at least from the perspective of the COT (commitment of traders) report put out by the CFTC. This assumes one believes that the “commercials” are the smart money, while the “large speculators” are dumb money. Most of the time (like many other sentiment indicators) the info is just noise, but when at extremes you sit up and take notice. Such is the case recently as commercials are heavily long the USD, and short gold and copper, while the large specs are heavily on the other side. To me at least, this helps make sense of what’s going on here.
Posted by: PK at
May 17, 2007 11:32 AM [link]
I know it's real early but psst, the GDX just turned green.
Wonder if Bush is saying to Blair, "How 'bout one more war, Tone? For ol' times sake?"
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
May 17, 2007 11:37 AM [link]
Kaimu,
Multiply the tons of gold and silver that they took from South America since the 1500s', add a modest say 3% interest a year, what do you get? Several times the mass of the Earth worth of Gold. Someone should send them the bill.
G'man has 21,000 short positions at the TOCOM and no long positions. How do you interpret this data? Thx.
Posted by: SiO2 at
May 17, 2007 11:39 AM [link]
Posted by: Tim47 at
May 17, 2007 11:40 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
Times this by 300 million and add a few billion from China and India ...
This is what they teach kids grades K-12 ... when do our elected leaders learn it?
Link: http://www.mii.org/
Posted by: kaimu at
May 17, 2007 11:45 AM [link]
One of my Jr golds., MNG, is up nicely today on news and perhaps a turn in the market(? I HOPE!! Some of the others, AEM, SSRI etc. are greening up right now little too )
Posted by: BRC at
May 17, 2007 11:47 AM [link]
Hmm, makes you wonder if Ron Paul getting all the exposure that he is now, asserting himself as a real contender for pres, and feeling as strongly as he does about gold, is that just one more incentive for the Fed, HB&B, etc to smash gold? I.e.
If they can keep gold burried while markets continue to rise, they would be jeopardizing Ron Pauls credibility. I'd imagine some of the old boys club must shudder at the thought of Ron Paul getting into power and the prospects of returning to constitutional basics...
Posted by: proudPapa at
May 17, 2007 12:02 PM [link]
kaimu - funny you bring up mii.org today. last time you mentioned it, i checked out the link and ordered the periodic table to hang in my classroom. and it just came today! what a coincidence.
Posted by: rob d at
May 17, 2007 12:05 PM [link]
gdx, volume on pace to be more than yesterday and that was way above average. i feel like i'm at a horse race, come on pm, come on pm.
re: politics in america. If I was looking for where to start the ripple it would be in cable media. It would be a return to the gravitas days of eric severirad. Punk kids with no sense of hx would be wearing the clown suits. As much as I like Bill Mar, he is merely reactionary. Shakespearian Fool role. Insightful humour to tear down. When people loose control, the rebellious child is one outlet. A solid news channel will never work, though, unless it can make money. Walter Cronkite et al were subsidized and that is no longer an acceptable model. (no more coffee today)
Posted by: jasper at
May 17, 2007 12:27 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
proudPapa ... Just ask the Kennedy's what happens when you turn on the "powers-that-be" ...
rob d ... Coincidence? I think NOT! Divine intervention? BUT OF COURSE !!! HA !!!
I find it astounding that Americans consume so much of the World's resouces yet we are crying about $3USD gas! I just got off the phone with a biz pal in London and he says gas there is equal to $8USD per gallon and everyone drives "minis"! In the 1970s' when gas spiked and "odd/even" lines formed and the OPEC embargo was full on you could not give away a Cadillac! I believe we are returning to those times where a Hummer won't be worth a dime on the dollar except for scrap! I hear there are some Hummer dealerships in the USA that are already closing ... I have to say when I drive into Hilo I see a marked increase of F350s and SUVs for sale along the road! GM and Ford are once again behind the eight ball just like they were in the 1970s when the most valuable car on the road was a Honda! Why do their CEOs even bother drawing a paycheck any more? America is now a country where exceptionally poor performance is rewarded handsomely.
Posted by: kaimu at
May 17, 2007 12:36 PM [link]
Crystallex International Corporation will propose PricewaterhouseCoopers as Auditor; Annual & Special Meeting date changed to June 28, 2007
The record date for shareholders entitled to vote at the Annual General Meeting is May 22, 2007. The meeting will be held at 9:30am in the Windsor Ballroom, Le Royal Meridien King Edward Hotel, 37 King Street East, Toronto, ON, M5C 1E9.
Maybe I'' have a chance to attend.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 17, 2007 12:43 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”
Lord Keynes
Posted by: kaimu at
May 17, 2007 12:45 PM [link]
Crystallex International Corporation Will Propose PricewaterhouseCoopers as Auditor
Thursday May 17, 12:31 pm ET
Posted by: NYUgrad at
May 17, 2007 12:46 PM [link]
fwiw, GWR/DJ Genesee & Wyoming ....a regional freight line that handles mining and food products...has a nice base, it went on alert (subscription service) earlier in the month and i took a position. I liked the sector. Chart wise, price has been reasonable. PEG is only .60
Operates in Canada. Perhaps others have a sense of management?
Posted by: jasper at
May 17, 2007 12:50 PM [link]
Re: "Maybe I'' have a chance to attend."
Only crazy shareholders are invited Bill. :P
Posted by: NYUgrad at
May 17, 2007 1:07 PM [link]
Bill & Co.,
I noticed that most of the Canadian energy trusts (CNE, AAV, PDS, PGH, PWI, BTE) seem to be rounding out some saucer patterns on the 1 yr. chart. ENT looks like its bottoming out. What do you guys think?
Posted by: BUstudent at
May 17, 2007 1:19 PM [link]
For those who missed the Dendreon roller coaster, GERN (stem cells) looks like it's ready for a similar run. Ride at your own risk but here's the story today:
http://www.thestreet.com/_tscs/newsanalysis/biotech/10357483.html
Looks likes there's some interest in PM stocks. SLW poking above 11.
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
May 17, 2007 1:20 PM [link]
Newmont Mining (NEM) D/W/M RSI all under 30 (monthly is actually right at 30) after a bad quarter for them. Going to be keeping my eye on this one and hopefully get it on the cheap.
Any thoughts on management? I remember Bill writing a post about Newmont late last year, and thought he said it was in his Cara 100 but I don't see it on there now, guess it was removed?
Posted by: chas at
May 17, 2007 1:26 PM [link]
This made me want to puke. The govt controlled media tries to attribute Ron Paul's strong debate polling to online manipulation:
The establishment is already turning on him. If what he says resonates with you, spread the word. Buy a bumper sticker from his website. Talk about him online. Do something. Don't let the establishment bury this guy.
Posted by: GTT at
May 17, 2007 1:45 PM [link]
ANON has an account with Air Canada Cargo. At this moment, we have one outstanding invoice that is 11 days old for $129. Air Canada Cargo isn’t releasing any cargo without cash payment to anyone “because it is their year end”.
What do you make of that?
Posted by: unplugged at
May 17, 2007 1:52 PM [link]
Has anybody seen any news from Dynasty Metals (DMM) today? Thanks.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 17, 2007 2:06 PM [link]
Who dares to bet against him?
Never fight the FED!
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070517/bernanke_mortgages.html?.v=15
Is it possible that the gold bull is already over? I mean, it is the most lagging of all commodities in this 6 year bull market so far, so maybe it won't even make new highs post its May '06 high.
I hope not, but just curious what everyone thinks.
Posted by: AA at
May 17, 2007 2:43 PM [link]
Hey Guys,
RE: KRY: Looks like the trend short term may have changed from down to up. About the meeting change of date, when was the meeting originally supposed to be? Also, I know we're getting a little ahead of ourselves, but I wouldn't want to hold KRY going into that meeting without The Permit.
Looking north on KRY.........................Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 17, 2007 2:47 PM [link]
Bill, how about Ambrian Capital (AMBR.L) for John in the UK? parabolic chart recently, but seems kind of like a Pinetree Capital. www.ambrian.com
Posted by: rob d at
May 17, 2007 2:57 PM [link]
Thanks rob d for suggestion I will look into it.In the meantime I am looking at Mercator Gold MCR.L,
Hambledon Mining HMB.L and Medusa Mining (MML)?
http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=10538650&sort=whole
Any comments on these would be appreciated
Posted by: john uk at
May 17, 2007 3:03 PM [link]
Chris,
Shareholder meetings are run according to bylaws and Roberts Rules. The agenda of the meeting will be the giveaway. If the stated agend is one item, like approving an accounting firm, then there isn't much chance of any other agenda item being discussed. IOW the permit won't be germain to the accounting firm vote.
Posted by: Craig at
May 17, 2007 3:11 PM [link]
Anyone notice the Talking Noggins have switched tunes? Yesterday and today they've been playing "inflation". When did they learn a new tune?
Hmmmm, all kinds of inflation that wasn't here a few days ago.....(smirk).
Posted by: Craig at
May 17, 2007 3:23 PM [link]
Testing a new knock off crystal ball:
PM and Miners to start a mini rally with a gap up opening tomorrow morning.
If the crystal ball is wrong, I am retiring for 3 months.
Posted by: JogyP at
May 17, 2007 3:27 PM [link]
jock,
agree with your thoughts on position sizing...although concentrating bets when trading allows me to focus on fewer positions and act more decisively...you have to do this full-time to be watching an entire list of positions...
i recall coming across a pretty good set of trading rules on leisa's blog (theperplexedinvestor.blogspot.com)also...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 17, 2007 3:32 PM [link]
Dear Craig,
I don't profess to know much about shareholder's meetings.
Primarily, if there is no permit by June's end there will be problems with the stock price even if KRY sends a team of dancing bears in to entertain the shareholds. But my point was, no news is bad news in this case.
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 17, 2007 3:34 PM [link]
if i were to venture into PMs right now, SLV would be my play with a target of 15 (18% return)...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 17, 2007 3:36 PM [link]
>
Very odd. (11 days old or 11 days past their due date?). If the latter, my experience is that freight folks are awfully picky about pmt. UPS will cut your account off in a heartbeat.
Sounds like prevarication on their part, but best to clear the bill and get your cargo.
would be interested in hearing bill's take on NEM also..
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 17, 2007 3:45 PM [link]
PM Prices: Who needs a crystal ball, the spanking in the woodshed is over! The burn is going away already. This was not even 10%, that's ok if you are in this thing for the long haul!
The PTB are putting lipstick on the $ and treasury pigs once again, Repos going like crazy in spite of the fact that fed credit is down a bit recently.
What is going on is all about managing the economic sentiment of the masses both in U.S. and worldwide. Regrettably PM's have suffered in this particular act of the play. There have been more lies and deception in this past weeks economic reports than rover has pups.
Even if Gold slides another 5$ who cares, this is yet another higher low, we are still well in the channel and what a sweet channel it is.
Posted by: agaunv at
May 17, 2007 3:54 PM [link]
VZ and KRY -
NYT has a front page article today on VZ "land reform", maintaining there's a campaign to hassle the 5% of the pop. which owns 80% of rural land, and to distribute land and credits to rural poor. Of COURSE there is !
Why would Chavez do this? He needs to be seen as the good guy fighting the good fight on behalf of the people. Oil is a separate economy, creating few jobs. Rural (like urban) folk want to see the gov't fighting for them, and for viable employment.
Chavez knows that local farmers can farm (he's from rural VZ) and also knows that local miners CAN'T mine safely or at scale. The gov't CVG mining co. also CAN'T mine PM's effectively.
That's why I think VZ will ultimately allow KRY and GRZ to develop their mines. If KRY's permit takes another 6 months, trade out as KRY falls and buy back in after it bottom's, bases, and heads up. That's what I'm doing ...
(currently out of KRY)
Leisa,
We have a long timely payment history. The invoice I described is from May 7th. On further inquiry I was told all customers are required to reapply for credit accounts. The issue for our company is facilitating access to third party couriors to our shipments. Is this a sign of the times or the condition of Air Canada?
Posted by: unplugged at
May 17, 2007 4:21 PM [link]
I notice that on a relative performance basis, KRY is currently doing better that GRZ, yet GRZ already has the permit. Could anyone hazard a guess as to why?
Posted by: aucourant at
May 17, 2007 5:14 PM [link]
KRY might be doing better because of
1) drilling that may expand resources within next few months
2) it is closer to production (needs to raise less money) than GRZ
3) it will be a takeover target with permit in hand
4) GRZ announced a share offering at $5.80 a share when the stock was trading at $7!
Posted by: moab at
May 17, 2007 5:36 PM [link]
unplugged
We used to send by Air Canada but this March when I took in a package, I was told that unless I had an account, they wouldn't accept the package. I decided to go across the parking lot and put it on Westjet!
Posted by: bobj at
May 17, 2007 5:38 PM [link]
Re NEM: chas and 2nd_ave, I removed Newmont from the Cara 100 some time ago. Pres. Pierre Lassonde is no longer a leader of this company, and I was a big believer in Pierre. Also, the Company's growth in estimated gold production from 2006 to 2011 is forecast by BMO at an annual compound rate of just +1 pct vs Goldcorp's +19 pct and Kinross' +15 pct. It's more like Barrick's +2 pct. And guess which two companies are saddled in debt? Yes, it's Newmont and Barrick. In fact let's look at what BMO thinks (May 7):
-----------------------------------------
Newmont Mining Co. (NEM-NYSE, US$41.95)
Market Perform Target: US$48.00
• Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services has placed Newmont’s credit ratings (including its BBB+ corporate credit rating) on CreditWatch with negative implications, citing Newmont’s expected capital intensive program over the next couple of years.
• At the end of the quarter, Newmont had cash of $786 million, and debt of $1.9 billion. The company has expanded its revolving credit facility to $2 billion. We estimate total capex of $2.5 billion in 2007 and 2008. Net of operating cash flow, we expect Newmont to consume approximately $915 million in cash over 2007 and 2008, including debt repayments of approximately $400 million.
---------------------------------------
Statistically, using BMO data, Goldcorp's P/CF 2009e is 11.5 vs Kinross' 8.6, Gold Fields' 9.1 and Barrick's 13.3. Its CFPS 2006e-2009e is expected to be 28 pct vs Kinross 95 pct, Gold Fields 67 pct and and Barrick's -7 pct.
Costs/oz at Newmont this year are expected to soar to $625/oz, which is not in line with Goldcorp's $504 or Kinross' $502.
So I'm no longer impressed by NEM or ABX, both of which were once on the Cara 100 list. These have been replaced by Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Gold Fields plus Teck-Cominco (TCK), which is consideraby more diversified (or, on the other hand, less a pure PM play).
The good news for NEM is that its reserve life in years is about the same as Barrick, Goldcorp, Goldfields and Kinross. Actually Goldcorp is a tad higher than the rest.
Critics can speak up, but I happen to like the Western Goldfields story. When this company comes into production next year, it will more than statistically measure up to the big guys except of course in annual output. But on a operating performance basis to present share price, I doubt any of the Big Four will compare to WGI/WGDF (soon to be on AMEX).
If you want a holding that you can put away for 3 to 5 years without worry, I think it ought to be Western Goldfields.
Disclosure: No position in any of these five companies, at present.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 17, 2007 5:39 PM [link]
Unplugged--sounds like Air Canada has anti-customer policies. They are not deserving of your business, and should there be a cost effective, quality alternative, you should seek it out and inform them as to why you have.
Bill, earlier today BUstudent asked about some Canadian Energy Trusts. I remember you being negative on these some time back, and there is the issue of the tax law change in Canada. Perhaps you could give some general thoughts on what your opinion would be for a U.S. investor.
Some sure look like break out city.
Thanks.
I monitor some of the Pro Shares Ultra inverse ETFs just for fun of it... right, just like all the fun I have been having with my PM holdings.
I am looking for the right entry opportunity, trying not to be too early.
Has anyone checked out the action in SRS recently?
This is the 2X Inverse Real Estate ETF.
Is this a leading indicator?
Volume is up. Who's buying? Maybe some big boys?
The dollar looks to me like it is going to stage one of its bounces. I hope this doesn't mean continued pain in PMs. Could these detach based on fundamentals?
Any thoughts anyone?
Posted by: Rigdon at
May 17, 2007 6:15 PM [link]
BMO nat gas losses with Optionable are now estimated by BMO to be not $350 mil to $450 mil, but $680 mil plus.
As I say, stay tuned...
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 17, 2007 6:34 PM [link]
Thank you for your comments re: the miners, Bill. I'll be sure to keep Western Goldfields on the radar.
Posted by: chas at
May 17, 2007 6:41 PM [link]
Rigdon-
I've looked at the chart and that of ICF, IYR and XHB and there is something there. What it is I don't know. What I do believe however is that the pros know that the semi-pros have gotten into the game in this sector and they have sure done some numbers on them. I have held XHB as a short before and the ride was pure hell. There SHOULD be a wave down coming in the REITs but I think it is gonna take some balls to hold it. JMHFO.
Posted by: MarkM at
May 17, 2007 7:11 PM [link]
Rigdon
"Has anyone checked out the action in SRS recently?
This is the 2X Inverse Real Estate ETF.
Is this a leading indicator?
Volume is up. Who's buying? Maybe some big boys?"
Well, this "big girl" is in SRS. I was happy to see it finally break out. I've been waiting for IYR to break. It's not fully broken--and frankly, it may not fully break. Further, the bid/ask gap may surprise you. While it goes up quickly, it also goes down quickly if there is any renewed strength. IYR may be a bit oversold over these last couple of days, so you might wish to hide in the bushes before pouncing.
MarkM
So interesting to get your take.
Thanks.
I am only holding some XHB puts I bought some time ago that are almost in the money... almost. I am "almost" sure I am going to be finessed, end up with a mouth full of dust and then watch as XHB goes south with all the savy players rolling in the stuff..
This ain't easy is it?
Posted by: Rigdon at
May 17, 2007 7:58 PM [link]
Leisa
You smart girl you.
You continue to impress with your astuity and modesty.
Posted by: Rigdon at
May 17, 2007 8:01 PM [link]
Jock,
I believe KRY has one good rally back near five left in it (as well as a few more days in which to do it) before a very bearish feeling settles in about the timeliness (lack thereof) of the permit. I am long KRY for this last rally which may take us into next week. But there's only so long until folks get negative about this again.
Chris
Long KRY and God knows, I've been wrong before.
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 17, 2007 8:28 PM [link]
hi bill,
i had hand surgery today at the kerlan-jobe clinic in los angeles, it takes two hands to capitalize so all small letters today while in a sling. they are a well known orthopedic group. the guy next to me in pre-op was a los angeles angels pitcher in for an elbow repair.
in regards to your sinus infection, my ent put me on augmentin since i cannot tolerate avelox, and it fully cleared the left side of my nose of two ulcers that were bleeding in about 7 days. i took it for ten days though, 1000mg twice a day. you might try that drug. stk
Posted by: stktrader at
May 17, 2007 8:55 PM [link]
Hello from Va.
This is my first post to this site. I have been reading here for about six months & have really gained a new outlook on the world of investing/trading. My thoughts on the value of our money parallel a lot of people on this board. I ran across an interesting article on the Financial Sense website tonight & thought that some of you may be interested in seeing this also. http://tinyurl.com/3a2ycx
Bill, You a doing a great job here, I wish more people in this world had a passion for doing the right things to help others.
Posted by: vavoline6 at
May 17, 2007 9:27 PM [link]
Leisa...is this rotation out of icf and money going elsewhere? Makes me realize that the slate of industry ultrashort etfs are an excellent vehicle to hedge. A little goes a long way. Of course, if one knows what they are doing.
Posted by: jasper at
May 17, 2007 10:11 PM [link]
I thought this was an interesting read. 40% annual return!
http://consumerist.com/consumer/personal-finance/how-to-beat-the-stock-market-buy-companies-with-high-customer-satisfaction-scores-261282.php
Posted by: chas at
May 17, 2007 11:29 PM [link]
Rigdon, your comments are kind. Thank you.
Jasper, regarding rotations, I really do not know. But there has been quite a bit of sector rotation as we have all seen. Oil service seems to be enjoying some attention here.
Hello the Cara Community. I'm asking for opinions and experience here. I have a few shares of alltel. Is it best to hold till the sale and get the price set for the stock or is that a gamble? TIA for comments
Peace
Gray
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MU offering 1.1B in unsecured convertible notes..... off .30 this AM
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May 17, 2007 8:41 AM [link]