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May 14, 2007
Cara’s Daily Board, Mon., May 14, 2007, 8:29 AM
Yes, Richard Russell (The Dow Theory Letters) is bullish on the market, but wasn't the last time he issued a Bear market signal over ten years ago? I don't know the answer to that since I don't read The DTL anymore. Please confirm.
I did receive this letter today from ANON, and I do recall the person telling me about a year ago that the chip sector in Asia-Pacific markets where he works was in better shape than he was reading about North America, but he was still bearish at that point. No longer.
Here's his letter:
Hi Bill,If you remember me, I live in Malaysia working in semi. I have been bear in Q1 and for Q2 and indeed Q2 in the industry may be weak but booking is picking up and looking good. I was skeptic hearing all the bullish comments during latest earning reports of most tech companies anticipating a recovery in Q3. Well, it is there driven by Microsoft migration. And when I think I just upgraded myself, buying a new PC and a genuine copy of Vista, I think Q3 indeed might surprise to the upside. The breakout in SOX is not meaningless. See the price of DRAM, hard-disk, Intel core duo, it is all affordable to upgrade.
KR
/ANON
I do see that the economy of the Asia-Pacific region has become the global engine, and Germany too (as other readers long ago opined), but I still remain concerned that the North American economy has serious problems that must be resolved soon before US equities can move higher without an extreme push by the Fed and Treasury.
I also think that inflation is a bigger problem globally than generally discussed.
Tomorrow morning, we learn how the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is doing:

Had Bernanke not turned on the printing presses to goose the US equity market last July, I believe inflation could have been beaten. The US PPI and CPI charts show that inflation is on the rise, which is a scenario where interest rates also rise or at least stay flat. The market Bulls are hoping for rates to fall.
Asia-Pacific markets were very strong today, just as I had “forecasted” in the Week In Review after watching the Cara 100 Chinese stocks top the leader board during Friday’s rally in NY.
How prophetic.
Mixed results in Europe to this point. Miners are up, however, which is another “forecast from the WIR.
The $USD in the morning popped to a high of 82.146 at 3:30am ET, then slid down to a current level (about 7am) at 82.001.
U.S. Treasury Bond Jun. 2007 contract
On Friday afternoon, the US T-Bond dropped from a mid-day 111.88 all the way down to 111.2 before closing at 111.3125. The slide was simultaneous with the rise in precious metals prices.
The e-Mini Jun-07 oil contracts on Wed. spiked down to a mid-day low of 60.7. This morning, Crude Oil near futures are up to 63.000, strengthening from the prior close of 62.45.
Gold Jun-07 contracts on the NYMEX
Gold near futures are trading this morning at 675.4, up from a previous close of 672.4.
This morning at 7.23am ET, spot gold is at 673.90, up from 668.15 on Friday at this time.
On Friday morning, I alerted you to the coming rally. I wrote, after watching gold get smashed during c.banker week, “Somebody’s buying it. I call it The People. Isn’t it better to be buying low and selling high? I think the People have it right. “
Spot silver is at 13.15 at this point in the morning compared to 13.01-13.05 early Friday.
Spot silver broke up through the top of the end of the week’s 12.92-13.06 range, following the smash down mid-day Thursday.
Spot platinum is at 1332, up from 1313 at about this time Friday.
Spot palladium is up to 362 this morning (7:30am), from 357 this time Friday.
As I wrote Friday morning early, “Go PM’s!”
$CRB dropped to 307.84 at the close Thursday. Then with Fiday’s rally in energy and the metals and PM’s, $CRB ran up to a close at 311.13.
As I believe the rally is on, it may be a good time for nimble swing traders to consider switching from the bullion to the juniors. In a Bull, the leverage of the listed miners works for you.
As you know I like the companies that are rapidly ramping up production, or will in the next two or three years. In prior market cycles, these are the stocks that double and triple in a brief period.
Cara 100 Stockwatch
Here are the Cara 100 gainers on Friday.
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers
In the WIR, I wrote, “Do you see how China has taken four of the top spots on Friday. But the Shanghai Composite was down -0.7 pct earlier in the day, so why were these Chinese stocks up so much? On a day (Friday) where US stocks were flying, how come the Chinese stocks were flying higher? Isn’t that all about Monday? And the Rockets Red Glare, the bombs bursting in air, Gave proof through the weekend, That Shanghai will be there (on Monday).”
Shanghai (+0.61 pct) and Hong Kong (+2.50 pct) were flying.
Tao, Brother.
Here are the top Cara 100 losers for Friday.
There were only 13 losers on Friday, but note how the five big losers on a strong market day in NYC were all American ‘no tickee no laundry’ type companies: Kohl’s (KSS), Activision (ATVI), Target (TGT), Walgreen (WAG) and Nike (NKE). Then after TGP, there was Whole Foods Market (WFMI) and JC Penny (JCP).
That tells me the Gnomes and HB&B are starting to worry about the US consumer. On a big rally day, the money is flowing from US consumer discretionary spending and into China: CNOOC China Offshore (CEO), China Telecom (CHA), China Mobile (CHL), and PetroChina (PTR).
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)
There were 6 stocks of the Cara 100 for Friday that hit 52-week intra-day highs and none hitting a low. The table does not account for the share split in Teck-Cominco (TCK).
There were on a really “hot” day in NYC, six of the Cara 100 that hit intra-day highs, including two from Canadian oilsands (ECA and IMO), a metal miner from Brazil (CVRD) that now owns a big part of Ontario Canada, and Deutsche Bank. …No I don’t need to say.
Here, from “Chris”, are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from “Chris”:
There are now 6 Cara 100 Company stocks that are below 30 on the Daily RSI-7 versus 8 above 70, using data from “Chris” – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which he takes from Worden.
Here, from “David”, are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest Daily RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values.
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with highest RSI-7 with Monthly-Weekly-Daily all either >70 or <30
Lyondell Chemical (LYO) and Aetna (AET) are particularly strong. I need to see the RSI-7 on the Daily price series data drop below 70 before selling.
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with RSI-7 Daily all >70
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with RSI-7 Daily all <30
![]()
Whole Foods Market (WFMI) looks interesting here because I think the arbs in the Wild Oats Markets (OATS) transaction have pushed WFMI too low. This discussion is for active traders.
The Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 is 29.01/31.88/14.14. Clearly, if WFMI stays down for another week (pulling the Weekly RSI-7 down below 30) and then starts to move higher day by day (pushing the RSI-7 for the Daily above 30), that’s the time for swing traders to Buy.
![]()
Today’s headline story is the sale of 80.1 pct of Chrysler by DaimlerChrysler for $7.4 billion. Essentially Daimler gave it away. The US UAW union approved the deal but the Canadian UAW has strong reservations and say they will not give in on staffing or wage cuts.
Loser in the bidding process was Canada’s Magna (NYSE:MGA), which instead has opted to take in a $1.4 billion investment from a Russian company and give up a large number of board seats in the deal. This moves Magna to a focus on developing the rapid growth Russian auto market, which I think is a much better deal than their acquiring Chrysler.
Meanwhile, there seems to be an inventory problem on North American car lots. Like houses, this glut will take a couple years to clear. Fire sales coming. Huge losses to follow that.
There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website updates in the morning.
Wrap up:
I’ll be working on the Cara Micro-cap 100 project today. It’s coming along. I selected 50 team members from a large pool of volunteers. Next month, I’ll increase that number to 100. It’s looking good. We have a docu/database management system in place and are testing a couple companies. Project leader Karl will send out an update this week to the team members.
The readership is growing. I think the web hits will be close to 2 million this week.
My account limits at the ISP have been upped from 100Gig per month to 250Gig per month because the monthly traffic is about 150-170Gig per month. I recall the day I bought a 64-k CPU mainframe that took half an office room. It cost me $80,000. I was so far ahead of my time, I never heard of the words "bandwidth" or "Gig". Even "Megabytes" was unheard of in business although I think we knew of the term at that point.
I also recall writing an article for "Canadian Doctor" in the mid-1970's where I opined that typewriters would be replaced in doctor's offices by computers. Even my wife thought I was nuts. Then I organized the first computer committee of the Canadian Medical Association General Council, and co-authored the CMA handbook, "The Computer-Assisted Physician's Office." That was 1976, and doctors were starting to take notice of computers.
Have a great week. But don't look back; it's kinda scary.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 14, 2007 08:29:44 AM | Category: Cara's Bull Board
Discourse
i know i am not the majority but i received a free copy of Vista with my recent thinkpad x60 purchase. and vista was slower performance wise vs xp; so its just sitting here on my desk under my morning coffee. i would guess that halo 3 would have more impact this yr than vista. they dont need hardware conversions to sell it.
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 14, 2007 8:38 AM [link]
ECONOMIC FORECASTING SURVEY / WSJ
a good tool from the wsj with lots of topics like inflation, housing, gdp, fed, cpi, stocks etc…..
Gold Should Continue To Gain vs. Paper Assets
Question for the group. I am on TD Ameritrade. For my volume of trading this is suffice. but can someone please point me to a cost effective real time block trade streamer? Must show u.s based activity, not tsx. as well as historical.
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 14, 2007 9:09 AM [link]
NYUgrad, I use Scottrade and I fire up the stream just before the open to watch the market setup. One portfolio screen is comprised of the biggest hitters in the biggest sectors so when the first quotes hit, I can see who is betting where as the share amounts are dead giveaways.
Being a newcomer to trading still finds me in awe of the enormity of capital being swapped. Seeing hundreds of thousands of shares continuously trading in one symbol dispels any lingering notion that the Market is any sort of game.
------------------
A few may have read my prior notes on HD and while I don't have certifiable scoop today, do remain aware that the company is just beginning to structure itself for the near term. Recent cutbacks here at its home find 50% staff reductions and inventory drawdowns to near JIT levels. While I really doubt that the whole HD Supply division will be sold, I do see the sale of its institutional divisions on the horizon. My reasoning is based upon the fact that the focus areas for HD Supply are vested in the SunBelt States and new home building may have slowed in some areas but it is more that the market is simply catching its breath, helped out by the Economic tumult of the financing/credit contagion.
All one need do is survey a Census report of population migration over the last quarter century to see my point.
This AM, Jefferies lowers its numbers on LOW yet holds its' Buy rating....HD reports tomorrow.
Posted by: redclaydawg
at
May 14, 2007 10:04 AM [link]
I've got an order to buy WFMI at 40.10 for a 1/3 position to open. I just got the position as I write. Now I sit to average down. stk
Posted by: stktrader
at
May 14, 2007 10:12 AM [link]
Hi Bill,
TCK had a split last week. It is actually trading near its 52 week high.
-Jags
Posted by: jags
at
May 14, 2007 10:22 AM [link]
Hey NYUGrad, I just ordered a Thinkpad X60 tablet for my son as a H.S. grad present. It will have Vista on it.
It will have 2Gb of memory. I wonder if you have less in yours? Vista is a memory guzzler.
And what's up with Gold today? Looks like the shorts are determined to keep it down.
Posted by: number2son
at
May 14, 2007 10:27 AM [link]
Jags,
I saw that in the WIR and wrote "no new lows". This morning with so much happening I over-wrote that. My mistake. Unfortunately I am trying to do too much here.
Re PM's, they are taking another smashing here this morning. The overnight session did not indicate this. Again, I switched from the bullion to the junior PM's. Maybe that pulled dwn the bullion? Do you think? (LOL)
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 14, 2007 10:29 AM [link]
redclaydawg, I just watched the scottrade elite demo and the "Time & Sale" button is what i want. Might have to transfer over. thanks for the insight
number2son, I have the non tablet 1.66 ghz and 2gb or ram. I never installed vista since i read it was a memory hog. and i dont want to be a early adapter on an operating system when i run my business off this laptop. It never crashes. My previous thinkpad t22 never crashed either. your son will love it. make sure you get him a laptop cable lock so no one steals it.
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 14, 2007 10:34 AM [link]
MELCO PBL down almost 7%.
Hearing from Msg boards that CROWN opening had lesser crowd than WYNN opening.
Is this a buying opportunity?
Posted by: JogyP
at
May 14, 2007 10:36 AM [link]
Reality in the US housing market. The point here is that none of these people suspected they would take any kind of a haircut, nonetheless one as large as this. If they had made those purchases with no debt (as I recommend for the securities market), they might have waited out the cycle bottom and subsequent recovery. But they took huge leverage (ie, debt), hoping to make a quick killing and we're probably forced to sell. Unfortunately.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117910010258001458.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 14, 2007 10:48 AM [link]
JogyP,
Melco PBL announces its quarterly earnings tomorrow morning. Also, MGM missed its quarterly estimates badly this morning. That's also probably playing into the decline.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves
at
May 14, 2007 11:00 AM [link]
GFI spiking down to 16.25?
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2007 11:00 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
Bill ... it seems that the FED and their Wall Street bank accomplices have a mandate from the US Treasury to keep gold down so long as the USDX is below 82!
With Goldman lightening their net shorts on the TOCOM to record lows I wonder how long this will last? Or is it that Paulson is allowing Goldman an escape hatch from future rising gold prices?
At any rate, any way you look at it the markets are rigged as much as "free" markets can be! Can they? HA!
Man I drove past some car dealer lots the other day in Hilo and they are jam packed with CARS!! Every one, even Toyota and Honda dealers! I'm seeing some real low prices on used cars also ... How can auto stocks stay so high when dealer lots are full? Or is this just an anomoly here in Hawaii, just in Hilo? Also who is this private entity that bought Chrysler and does Lee Iacocca or the US government own part of Cerberus?
Posted by: kaimu
at
May 14, 2007 11:01 AM [link]
The $USD was actually falling during the 8:30-10am ET plunge in PM's. So what's up? Could it be another Refco/Amaranth that got hit last Tues-Thurs, and is being sold out this morning?
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 14, 2007 11:11 AM [link]
Kaimu, I reported just the other i was on a test drive binge this weekend and can concur that in the nyc area and nj, dealer lots are at capacity! I would not want to own a car dealership and walk into work everyday with a mountain of cars to sell. Gas prices aren't helping any either.
Re: Reality in housing
For foreclosures i believe its more those families who bought too much home on the undeniable lure of providing for themselves and for their family. they prob took a home equity loan for a nice car too. now their mortgage has adjusted and can no longer pay. I believe the media is associating housing glut with flippers to confuse us. the real problem is much deeper and wide spread.
For flippers who are smart, i believe they can get out without too much loss. if a flipper gets in phase I of the expansion, they can usually at least break even or loss 5% if they cant afford the mortgage. When i was shopping for rental homes 2 yrs ago i was swimming amongst those buying 2-6 homes at a time to flip. worst case is they can get renters to pay the mortgage. Many who i have kept in contact with are fine.
Again i believe these foreclosures are more the families mis-managing debt living in a home they shouldn't have bought in the 1st place. and looking at how the American consumer prefers to use debt and not save, this is only the beginning.
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 14, 2007 11:13 AM [link]
and now GFI is at 17.40? guess it hit the AZ 13 minutes ago and everyone's buying..
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2007 11:14 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
I just had a thought about the Chrysler buyout! I'll bet SNOOP DOG is behind it!! With all the money he gets from their commercials he can afford them! HA!
Sad to say but usually job lay-offs happen after takeovers!
Posted by: kaimu
at
May 14, 2007 11:27 AM [link]
redclaydawg, or NYUgrad: does the scottrade time & sales allow for singling out the block trades, or do you simply have to stay glued to the thing for the whole day, in order to see or record the blocks? I have ETrade, which also offers time & sales, but from what I can tell, there's no way to set it to only report the trades about x amount. I, too, am looking for a service with block trade capability, so if anyone comes up with one, I'd be interested.
Maggie
Posted by: writersblock
at
May 14, 2007 11:39 AM [link]
Oops, "trades about x amount" should read "trades *above* x amount."
M.-
Posted by: writersblock
at
May 14, 2007 11:40 AM [link]
CTSH down 1.8% on fairly heavy volume and no fresh news. First time around SMA since October 2005. Building a position...
Just (from Portugal)
Posted by: Just
at
May 14, 2007 11:41 AM [link]
Bill, regarding housing -- it just keeps getting worse, imo. I've been bearish for a long time, and take no pleasure in watching this unfold.
This weekend, I checked Zillow for some recent sales in my neighborhood and was surprised to find what were probably 2 short sales in the last 3 mos. Both homes were sold in 2006 at the top of the market, and then sold in 2007 for $100-200K less. And my area has had no more than 3-5 sales per month this year. This is an awful situation.
Some nice homes are selling, but activity is way down from last year. FWIW, I live in a SF East Bay community that many say is so desirable that a correction will not happen. Indeed, it is happening.
Forget the home builders for a moment, right now it's the lenders that have been way overbought, especially the Alt-A lenders like CFC, DSL and IBM. I believe they will sell off considerably over the next year.
Posted by: number2son
at
May 14, 2007 11:44 AM [link]
any ideas why ANV and VGZ getting pounded for the past week? why don't people like the spinoff?
Posted by: rob d
at
May 14, 2007 11:48 AM [link]
Happy Monday,
Anyone got anyone on the inside at the NY hard assets conference? KRY is supposed to speak.
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2007 11:52 AM [link]
Someone doesn't like what's being said....
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2007 12:01 PM [link]
KRY down .53
Posted by: JogyP
at
May 14, 2007 12:07 PM [link]
Bill, quite to the contrary Richard Russell has been bearish for quite some time.
see article -
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:38 AM ET May 8, 2007
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) - Has Richard Russell finally thrown in the towel on his long-standing bearishness?
Posted by: RJ
at
May 14, 2007 12:07 PM [link]
Many times the stock simply does not move on a block trade. Does that mean the block trade was between institutional guys and gals. And there was no need to sell it in open market.
Is that a bullish, bearish or no sign for the stock ?
TIA
Posted by: marginnayan
at
May 14, 2007 12:14 PM [link]
Dear Bill,
What did KRY say at the conference?
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2007 12:14 PM [link]
Maggie, check out the demo
You can also see the data historically i believe.
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 14, 2007 12:15 PM [link]
Any idea what triggered the KRY fall to 4.29 in less than 1 minute? and then the recovery to the 4.65 range again? We were seeing 4.9s earlier in the day... but no news on the public wires yet.
Posted by: Fazeli
at
May 14, 2007 12:16 PM [link]
craig,
did you get a chance to catch the BMD conference call?
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2007 12:16 PM [link]
Faz,
Kry spoke at a conference in nyc, and obviously said they didn't know when re the permit. I bought on the drop, by the way, not as low as I should have, though.
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2007 12:20 PM [link]
Price of gold appears to be falling for the moment. Perhaps this has something to do with KRY?
Maggie
Posted by: writersblock
at
May 14, 2007 12:26 PM [link]
NYUgrad: thanks for the link to Scotttrade Elite. Pretty spiffy demo. From what I can see, it is very similar to ETrade's T&S screen.
Maggie
Posted by: writersblock
at
May 14, 2007 12:31 PM [link]
2nd,
No, I had to be away for a bit but read the earnings reports this AM beforehand. I see heavy snow loads slowed ops but the price per unit was high and income from hauling. I expect the same sort of situation for farmers this year as the spring weather is cooler than normal. IOW road season and planting will be late.
Were you able to listen, and if so, any salient points? Price seems to be holding after a bit of a drop then a spike, then back again.
I'm not having a great day.... mpel buys well under H2O, PM's like UXG getting hammered.
WGDF looking statuesque though.
Under desk, trying to keep faith.......
Posted by: Craig
at
May 14, 2007 12:31 PM [link]
RE: KRY: am seeing some similar selling action in other, recently run up stocks at around the same time this morning. Perhaps it is noon-time profit taking, safely ahead of options expiration. Long: KRY.
Maggie
Posted by: writersblock
at
May 14, 2007 12:35 PM [link]
COT
I'm trying to understand better the "commercials" COT. Do you have any experience about buy/sell signals from those data?
I found this site http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/
with some interesting comments about this little COT thing.
Hmmm... maybe I'm just looking for any crystal ball to tell me what my gold will do tomorrow ;-)
Posted by: Lelik
at
May 14, 2007 12:52 PM [link]
it is rare i catch block trades on kry but here is a 250,000 block on the uptick (AMEX).
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 14, 2007 12:58 PM [link]
Hi Guys,
All I found was a charming little anecdote about oil well nationalizations.
Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA will take over operations of 18 oil rigs currently run by foreign companies, the nation's oil minister said in comments published in local media on Monday.....In addition, I'm sure that something was said at the conference regarding the permit, or lack thereof. This break is unusual a bit in that there is no quick recovery, and my position is underwater. Anybody see my rubbers?
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2007 1:58 PM [link]
I went back to a list junior miners by Bill.
HMY's chart looked the best to me, among the ones not held. Picked up a partial position 15.63. In today's clobbering, good relative strength. ps in foxholes and underdesks faith is largely overestimated. i personally prefer a watering hole....or, swimming for stress reduction which is where I am going now.
Posted by: jasper
at
May 14, 2007 2:15 PM [link]
Craig,
uxg is having a secondary offering...often that does not help.
Posted by: jasper
at
May 14, 2007 2:16 PM [link]
Re: KRY
At this point GRZ at 6:36 looks like a better buy with limited downside.
I think people where bidding up KRY in anticipation of permit this morning.
KRY could easily go below 4 from here.
Posted by: JogyP
at
May 14, 2007 2:29 PM [link]
Thank you Jasper, I saw that. Combined with a down day for gold it gets a little ugly for a while. Unless you're buying.
Posted by: Craig
at
May 14, 2007 2:37 PM [link]
the action on KRY just underscores the advisability of chris' strategy of trading the spikes. anyone who is "all in" KRY on a day like this...how do you handle it?
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2007 2:42 PM [link]
MPEL was downgraded today due to a delay in opening some of their upper scale highroller rooms at the Crown Macao opening. Earnings Tuesday.
Posted by: Craig
at
May 14, 2007 2:55 PM [link]
"GRZ at 6.36" - a falling knife. Now at 6.30. Better wait till it stabilizes, bases, and heads UP.
Curious though that GRZ (with permit) goes straight down, while KRY (without permit) bounces back from its suspicious fall of this morning.
Posted by: Jock
at
May 14, 2007 3:09 PM [link]
In light of today's action I think that GRZ is going have a tough time raising the capital that they've proposed.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves
at
May 14, 2007 3:09 PM [link]
Anyone use financeyahoo.com? I'm finding that they are no longer remembering my stocks and they have dropped all techical indicators from there charts, so I can't look at RSI, etc. Is it just me or are others having the same experience?
Posted by: aucourant
at
May 14, 2007 3:16 PM [link]
Good afternoon, Bill.
There seems to be a bit of fear and loathing in regard to the PM stocks. I've noticed many Mondays are weak for the PM stocks and it could just be extra pressure due to the CPI announcemrnt tomorrow. I nibbled on some more SLW but really hoping it can stay above 11. GRS getting another beatdown.
Crunching on some more ICE. Bought some JBX as an earnings play.
Posted by: mogwai8myball
at
May 14, 2007 3:24 PM [link]
GRZ down -9.0 pt and KRY down -4.8 pct today. With a nervous gold market, maybe traders are focused on that proposed financing of GRZ?
US Gold is off -6.2 pct in the US and -5.8 pct in Canada.
Western Goldfields is off less than -1.0 pct.
This is a challenging day for swing traders, but not one that nimble day traders mind at all.
Steve, my techie, has me testing out a new VOIP phone system (easier than Skype) that would facilitate a Squawk Box environment for my hyper-active day trader readers. It's a likely offering I'll make once I get to Bahamas and set up for trading. Every participant would keep their own brokerage accounts, but would have the advantages that HB&B offers their traders. Now that's real-time trading.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 14, 2007 3:28 PM [link]
Help me understand. How would one day's price action impede GRZ's ability to raise capital? A slightly better deal for buyers I'd think. And wouldn't loans be a function of the feasibility study plus regulatory situation?
Posted by: Jock
at
May 14, 2007 3:30 PM [link]
Jock,
As I see it, GRZ is issuing 16 million shares and have based their estimated capital to be raised on approximately $7 US a share. I think that the shares will have to be issued at a slight discount to the market to clear them all. I'm long GRZ but, see the price volatility as creating a tough time to raise capital.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves
at
May 14, 2007 3:39 PM [link]
In SoCal it is just as much flippers (floppers) that are foreclosing as families upside down and in debt, if not more.
Many of these foreclosures were actually planned. A huge amount of fraud was going on, where a group of 5 people would each buy a house; then they would flip it to their designated "flopper", who, with the ridiculously easy lending available, would have no problem getting the $5 million in loans needed. The flopper would file for default almost immediately; he had no intention of ever making a payment. The group splits the proceeds from the 5 flips. 5 new foreclosures on the market.
I believe this was going on far more than people realize just yet.
Posted by: GTT
at
May 14, 2007 3:49 PM [link]
Jock:
"GRZ at 6.36" - a falling knife. Now at 6.30"
I get in trouble often by trying to catch falling knifes. Can you plase explain techniques you use to idenitfy this.
Posted by: JogyP
at
May 14, 2007 3:56 PM [link]
KRY's lunchtime collapse from 4.80 to 4.30 represents a loss of -10.5% from the previous close, which means anyone with 5% and 10% stops would have been shaken out. If you weren't at the investors conference, you might think someone had said something catastrophic there, but remember, KRY management cannot reveal that kind of material information to a few people in a conference room. They must publically announce such things. Next, look at the timing. KRY trades lightly during lunch. If you want to offload millions of shares while maximizing your profit, you won't do it a few minutes after everyone has left for lunch or all at once. Indeed, the entire drop was created with only 800,000 shares. So why trigger the raid during lunch? If fewer people are at their desks, then you have less competition as you scoop up all the apples you shook from the tree.
Posted by: Skrymir
at
May 14, 2007 4:04 PM [link]
JogyP:
The basic idea is not to buy something when it's still in a downtrend. You want to see it stop falling, "base" for a while (how long depends upon your timeframe) and then show signs of going up. Neither investors nor traders want to buy a stock whose price is going down ! - Traders, when they do buy, also want a nearby low under which they can place a "stop order" (which will sell them out if the price falls below this level). Do you recall Bill's having written recently that when a Cara 100 falls into the accumulation zone, you generally wait till it starts up and out of the zone to buy?
If you haven't read some basic material on how to do this (and how to establish risk controls via stops) I would do so before trading. In my view the best overall treatment of trading is Alex Elder's Come into my Trading Room from 2003. Others, no doubt, have their favorite sources, and lots of opinions on this are available on the web.
Alex'es books take some time to work through, but you will have a better chance of avoiding ruin, and of becoming a good trader with serious, somber materials like his, rather than "dream-weavers".
When Bill's book comes out I intend to study it inside out, and recommend that you do the same.
Good Luck. And remember controlling risk (either through stops, or through constant attention) is CRITICAL to your survival as a trader! - Jock
GRZ closed down -12.9 pct (AMEX) with a $5.85 bid $6.04 offer. And they were going to finance the company with a $7.00 stock plus debt? Hmmm. I actually liked GRZ before I saw the financing proposal. Then I thought that GRZ ought to be trying to help KRY (down -5.4 pct) get their licence, and then agree to put both companies into play simultaneously. What a coup that would be.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 14, 2007 4:08 PM [link]
"Indeed, the entire drop was created with only 800,000 shares. So why trigger the raid during lunch? If fewer people are at their desks, then you have less competition as you scoop up all the apples you shook from the tree."
It looks like quite a few trees in the miner orchard got shaken violently today. ;)
Posted by: number2son
at
May 14, 2007 4:17 PM [link]
If GRZ goes much lower why doesn't Fung and Co simply buy the permit by raising money to buy GRZ?
Posted by: NYUgrad
at
May 14, 2007 4:17 PM [link]
Hi Bill,
Count me in on the squawk box feature. I *need* it.
Not too good a day for this trader.
Stopped out of MPEL as I'm not willing to go into earnings already down.
PM's all sucking except WGDF.
Down on UXG. Not too bad with GLD.
-------------------------------------------------
2nd:
Down on a small position in BMD. (now BFE!) but small enough to stand the current situation. I think it's early with limited downside and good upside. Comments? IOW, I'm staying long BMD.
Is it Friday yet?
Posted by: Craig
at
May 14, 2007 4:21 PM [link]
JogyP:
Not that stoplosses are a panacea. Skrymir's entry above on KRY suggests how traders can "farm" holders' stops -- like mine by driving price down temporarily. But at least I made a little $$$ on this last trade of KRY.
Bill in response to your posts per P.M. prices, the correlation of fed. repo activity in monetizing demand OF EVERYTHING has atleast some validity. Also ECB and others selling are anticipating possible C.T. unwind via JCB meeting this week. This last or final run higher into June 13/15 (i.e. next wave up) sounds viable but noting how fundy's have been perfect while $ 700 continues to be the line in the sand assuming carry trade stays on perhaps we test
$ 630-$ 659 in S.T. with upper limit channel around $ 710-$ 715 (see Gnazzo latest piece in SafeHaven). Hence resistance would be around 1460 for S/P mid June!
Posted by: Rick45
at
May 14, 2007 4:41 PM [link]
Fascinating discussion on coal via bubblevision currently; coal actually getting alot more attention lately noting status quo. Hence will North Americans pay 3X as much per Kilowatt hour (as Germans do) to reduce carbon emmisions? Its rather sad all this opposition to coal noting the abundance of supply here at-home. Now that Bush's cronies got theirs per the pork barreling of ethynol who is next? Suppose one would need to see how many GOP's votes there are in coal states as compared to Texas. Rome is burning!
:)
Posted by: Rick45
at
May 14, 2007 4:49 PM [link]
Jock:
Thank you for your explanation. I plan to pick up the book today.
I try to follow those things, but I thought for stocks like UXG, KRY and GRZ rumour, news and POG have bigger impact on the price movement.
if you have more tips for me send it to minijogy@yahoo.com
"outlook drives price. Existing fundamentals support price. Technicals reflect the negative or positive sentiment of the moment. If outlook predicts a higher price and sentiment is negatively impacting price, you probably have a buy. If outlook suggests an overvalued security and the sentiment shows a very positive looking chart, you probably have a selling opportunity. Sometimes, outlook, technicals, and fundamentals are in harmony and you likely have a "hold" in that case"
--borrowed from hopeful200--
Posted by: JogyP
at
May 14, 2007 5:13 PM [link]
Jock,
Re your comment/query about today's price and GRZ ability to do raise-up: a lower price means more dilution. It also makes for tougher terms on the loan. The fact, the stock could drop so much relative to the rest of the board may be an indication that GRZ was trading on hot air previously, whether true or not. Bankers would want to see a stable share price, so the volatility would not be helpful in any loan negotiations, or even stock negotiations. Besides, the underwriters typically price the issue at a discount to the recent price history, so a day like today puts a wrench into those spreadsheet calcs and discussions.
My point all through this piece is that if international bankers are not looking kindly on the Chavez treatment of the Big Oil companies there, what are they going to think about a GRZ/KRY situation. This financing is not going to be an easy one, as I said before.
A major goldminer like a Barrick, Goldcorp, Newmont or Gold Fields has an internationally diversified holding of operating mines. Should Chavez blow up, the financing risk could be contained, but not for GRZ or KRY.
These are huge dollars involved, and under the present circumstances, I don't see how these one trick ponies can measure up. The risk premium here is going to be phenomenal for GRZ/KRY financing. Think about the comparable financing cost of a BHP? You put that into a DCF spreadsheet over the mine life of these properties and the differences will be shocking. So much so, I think the present situation and conditions make going it alone all but impossible.
When the economies of South America crashed several years ago, some of the big Cdn banks wrote off humungous investments and kept right on trucking. Your local St. Louis credit union (had it been so foolish to bet the house on Argentina) would have been bankrupt in a heartbeat.
So volatility in a circumstance linked to present day Venezuela has serious ramifications.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 14, 2007 5:21 PM [link]
She wouldn't ever do it so I will. (As many know I am not the shy, retiring type) A visit to "Leisa"'s blog shows that she ended up in the top 3% of traders in the CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge. A nice tidy 29% return from start to finish. Way to go Leisa!
Posted by: MarkM
at
May 14, 2007 5:22 PM [link]
Coal = interesting stuff.
I have been long CNX since the double bottom in January. It has been a strong position for me this year. CNX's story is that it has the best vertical integration for coal gasification.
But coal is concentrated in 3 politically unimportant states, so we are going to get corn ethanol, no matter whether it starves the rest of the world or not.
Also long ANR since it broke out above 16. This one has been a nail-biter, chart has not shaped up all that well. Regretting this trade a bit.
I am told that whereas XOM is valued at $3.50 per million BTUs of energy of its proven and provable reserves, Peabody Energy (symbol: BTU - didn't want to confuse with the unit of measure) is valued at *7 cents*.
I would hold off for a bit.... MEE got hit with a multibillion pollution lawsuit today, not sure if others will be affected or not. The market seems to be saying it's company-specific because they all closed up.
Another interesting note is, if you listened to the replay of the MDR con-call last week, the extent to which new coal-fired plants are being built here and abroad is pretty incredible.
Almost all coal is moved by rail. NSC is bound at the hip to east coast coal. BNI is Powder River Basin coal, which is low-sulfur and "greener," if you will.
If I had new money to put to work in this sector, ACI is a pretty constructive chart that isn't too far above a base.
Posted by: ZackAttack
at
May 14, 2007 6:04 PM [link]
Zack -
The downside of coal: CO2 and lung-wrecking sub-5micron particles.
Fared Zhakaria wrote in Newsweek that China and India will build soon 800 coal-fired electric plants which will emit 5 TIMES the C02 that Kyoto is supposed to reduce!
AND, small soot particles are BAD for our lungs. A big run in BTU stock would be small consolation !
PS: This article said clean-coal technology is not even ready! - Why not? What could be more important to complete, and GIVE to the Indians and Chinese ...
cough, cough ...
Bill-
My apologies for my Sept 27th comments.
riskarb
Posted by: riskarb
at
May 14, 2007 7:33 PM [link]
I was hoping Bill or one of the regulars could give me some detailed thoughts on a couple of tactics. I have been a reader of the blog for several years and want to expand into option trades as Bill has described and I feel a bit embarrassed to ask the following questions:
1. I can not seem to grasp the concept of income and premium from using an option strategy to accumulate stock in the AZ and distribute in the DZ.
2. Could someone describe strategy in choosing strike price (I'm assuming this would be based on historical price trends and the stock price a person would like to enter the "trade") and how to choose the optimal option expiration date.
3. I would love to hear thoughts on money management and how it relates to percentage of capital in full positions, tactics on scaling in and out of positions etc.
I am not a day trader or even much of a swing trader as I am working 80-100 hours a week.
I would like any thoughts you all have
Thanks
Jim
Posted by: jamgar1
at
May 14, 2007 7:38 PM [link]
gold ang gold miners beginning to scare me.
Where is g034?
Posted by: JogyP
at
May 14, 2007 7:46 PM [link]
Dear Bill,
RE: KRY.....Last trade I see tonite in KRY went off at $4.94 up .40, which should give longs cause for encouragement.
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 14, 2007 8:17 PM [link]
“Had Bernanke not turned on the printing presses to goose the US equity market last July, I believe inflation could have been beaten.”
M2 certainly took off last July, but that wasn’t Bernanke. The Fed controls the monetary base, the growth of which has actually decelerated year-over-year, from 4.9% last July to 2.0% in April.
Posted by: Mythiot
at
May 14, 2007 8:33 PM [link]
A little humor for all your KRY folk .
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=14807938&tableid=0
Posted by: TheAdonis
at
May 14, 2007 8:33 PM [link]
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf
interesting coal report - not for short term, though.
Posted by: rob d
at
May 14, 2007 8:35 PM [link]
WFMI last trade 39.35. I am playing with the thought of Jan 09 40 strike and then writing short term calls, as well as selling Jan 09 40 puts to offset the cost of the calls.
Posted by: trader
at
May 14, 2007 8:51 PM [link]
Craig- BMD conference call was pretty dry, hard to stay with it, but learned a few things.
New President/COO has been a shareholder for about 2 years. His initial impressions during his first two weeks on the job include the loyalty (against the backdrop of a "fast" job market in Calgary) and integrity of the employees, as well as the the high quality of the product ("becomes obvious when you see it and walk on it")--well, what else is he going to say.
Proximity of the quarry to the end market ("location, location, location") allows for higher margins.
In the Industrial Materials Division, they have so far only been selling mainly Aggregate for construction. Expect to be selling Manufactured limestone products (quicklime, cement) by the end of '07. Environmental Remediation Division in the regulatory approval process.
The higher revenue figure (8.02/tonne in 1Q07 vs 3.24/tonne in '06) mainly due to improved sales of higher margin products.
Number of employees now 32 versus 15 in '06. Number of quarry operators now 14 versus 2. Operation has gone from 12 hours to 24 hours per day. Jarding impressed with seeing fully loaded trucks driving onto the scales every few minutes.
Total revenue for 1Q07 approximately equal to revenue for the entire year '06.
Employees and officers exercised 1.5m in stock options @ average price of 0.30/share.
Starting a very busy summer construction period. Peak season from July to late October. Difficult to estimate peak demand, but Abercrombie commented that they should see in excess of 20,000 tonnes per day over the next few weeks, and it should go up from there.
So no revelations. I think it will pay off to stay with the stock. Not adding at this point, but still positive on the potential. Try Googling Davenport (one of the covering analysts) over the next week or two for possible target price.
Here's a link from September '06 that may bolster your confidence: http://www.investorideas.com/insiderscorner/Articles/092806.asp
Good luck.
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
May 14, 2007 9:45 PM [link]
Bill as you know I have mentioned MRB here for many months now, again I believe it is a worthy candidate for your Micro 100 list. Please see the action in the stock last few hours of trading Monday-this is going MUCH higher!
Posted by: Rick45
at
May 15, 2007 3:56 AM [link]
Also Bill I realize the HW (850 mil. mkt. cap.)chart has the uglies, however note there is your typical arb. action via a convert. note floated in January combined with the "rhetorical: vice of a possible tax credit loss next year. The following is from Jeff Saut per the technology under the hood at HW (IMO this is more of a long suitable for IRA's, etc...I.E. this is what VLO looked like 10 years ago):
The following article was written by Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist, Jeff Saut. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the Minyanville community.
I spent last week in New York City attending conferences and seeing accounts. This week I am in Toronto doing the same thing. Nevertheless, last week began with Raymond James’ “Canadian Oil Sands Conference.” My firm has embraced the Oil Sands theme for more than five years due to our belief that we are approaching the point of peak production whereby the world will begin to consume more crude than can be found. The logic of this view is not rocket science, but the simple assumption that all that has to happen is for the “Chinas” of the world to go from one barrel per capita of consumption to two barrels (America’s per capita consumption is north of 20 barrels). While hybrid cars, solar, wind, ethanol and other alternative fuels will help at the margin, they cannot possibly ramp fast enough to offset the demand from five billion new entrants into the 21st century.
The implications of this are significant and will cause a sharp reallocation of crude oil supplies. For example, since there is no near-term, readily available alternative to gasoline, electric utility companies will need to switch from burning crude oil to other fuels to divert their oil for the world’s burgeoning gasoline needs. We think this has very positive ramifications for coal, clean coal technology, coal/natural gas to liquids technology, as well as nuclear energy.
Posted by: Rick45
at
May 15, 2007 4:04 AM [link]
Bill per my last post re: HW, see Jeff's last paragraph.
Posted by: Rick45
at
May 15, 2007 4:05 AM [link]
China down 4 %. Other Asian stocks markets also down. EU markets also open down.
Synchronized global growth. Oh Yeah !
Posted by: marginnayan
at
May 15, 2007 5:41 AM [link]
Congress to press China over its undervalued currency
Legislators target nations that manipulate their money. Critics say it's the wrong approach.
The legislation would slap tariffs on countries whose industries benefit from currency manipulation and force the Bush administration to hold China accountable for violating past trade agreements that bar currency manipulation.
Although forcing the Chinese and other Asian governments to adjust their currencies would raise prices and interest rates for U.S. consumers in the short term, some economists said it would reduce the trade deficit and increase the market for U.S. goods in the long run, mitigating the initial costs.
-----
America- the most competitive country in the world. Well it does not work any more. Bring in the tariffs. Oh Yeah !
Posted by: marginnayan
at
May 15, 2007 6:01 AM [link]
re: KRY
It looks like they reported financial results which were not particularly compelling.
MarkM thanks of the mention on my fantasy portfolio.
Dear Leisa,
Kudos are definitely in order for your awesome performance in the CNBC challenge. I thought about competing, but I determined that to do so would distract me from my appointed task of losing actual, real-world money. Tell us...What stocks were your major positions?
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack
at
May 15, 2007 8:09 AM [link]
Congrats from N2S on your success with the CNBC contest, Leisa.
Re KRY, did you expect any different? After all, they aren't producing any gold yet.
Posted by: number2son
at
May 15, 2007 9:31 AM [link]
Hi all. I kinda have a rant about Groopman and his "How Doctors Think" on my site today. Whatever. It sure won't make any of us any money.
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Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day Highlights: Cirrus Logic, Whole Foods Market, HealthSouth and OSI PharmaceuticalsLast update: 5/14/2007 6:00:03 AM
Bear of the Day:
Our Bear of the Day recommendation is for Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFMI). Whole Foods second quarter results fell short of our estimates. The shortfall was due to lower-than-expected sales growth. We are again lowering our EPS estimates for fiscal 2007 and 2008 to reflect the company's deteriorating fundamentals. In addition, the company reported the Federal Trade Commission is giving Whole Foods acquisition of Wild Oats more scrutiny. All told, we believe WFMI shares should trade at a multiple that more appropriately reflects a grocer with declining earnings growth. Our target price is $30, or about 20 times our fiscal year 2008 EPS estimate. We maintain our Sell rating.
About the Bull and Bear of the Day
Every day, the analysts at Zacks Equity Research select two stocks that are likely to outperform (Bull) or underperform (Bear) the markets over the next 3-6 months.
No Position (Yet!)
Posted by: TimG
at
May 14, 2007 8:38 AM [link]