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May 4, 2007
Cara’s Daily Board, Fri., May 4, 2007, 7:37 AM
The first Friday of every month, the capital markets (ie, stocks and bonds) are put through their biggest spin cycle of the month. It’s called US Jobs Report Friday. Like CPI, the number is almost meaningless because it is a wild estimate and will almost certainly be revised.
What the Jobs data does, however, is to add grist to the sell-side mill. Just a lot more yada yada by smooth talking noggins, trying to convince Joe Public they are “experts” and you ought to be following their advice.
I learned the patter too. I mean, if you want to survive in the securities industry in any capacity from chief investment strategist to mail runner there are a few things you must be prepared to utter when your lips start moving. The US Jobs Report data is at the top of the list. CPI is another.
Why? Because all people have a vested interest in their jobs and in the cost of getting to the end of the month, hoping to not be a dollar short.
You laugh, and say that can’t be true of CEO’s or rich people. Ha! Have you checked the average life-span of a CEO these days. And let me tell you about the millionaires I know who can’t write checks for $5,000 to clear their credit card balances at the end of the month because they came up short on payment day.
US Jobs data will be out today and let the spin begin.
That segue is important because it sets up my explanation of why there has not been much movement in the stock market since Wednesday morning. The DJIA has been trading in a narrow range of 12200-12250 and the NASDAQ Composite the same at 1258-1269. The spin doctors are now waiting for the word from those Big Swinging Dicks at HB&B.
Btw, if ever there was a well-written book that defined the culture of the HB&B it was the Michael Lewis non-fiction, semi-autographical Liar’s Poker, written in the 1980’s, but relevant for the most part today. The names behind those Big Swinging Dicks just keep changing as the owners move into the White House or the Fed or the Governor’s mansion or the SEC or the NYSE. Well, by now, you know the game. It’s never going to change.
And that’s another point I’m going to make. Because the playing field never changes, ie, HB&B tilts their casino in their favor so they can sweep the Street daily, sometimes hourly, the rest of us have to learn how to fight like guerrillas. We have to strike at a moment’s notice – before those HB&B computers can smash and grab.
What comes of this of course is something now referred to in the negative as “hot money”. Trust me, its only “hot” because if we don’t move it at something approaching the speed of light, HB&B will grab it.
I mean look at the US Bonds trading on CBOT yesterday, plunging from 112.03 to 111.22 in two hours. Billions of dollars moved in about 100 minutes at prices the Average Joe would be shocked to see. Just for the sake of comparison, let’s say Joe lives in a house worth 3 large ones, which is to say $336,090. Two hours later, the house is worth $333,660. Not bad until you know that in the Treasury market, the margin is almost nil, so your capital on the line might be $3,000, and now its $570. As you blinked at the computer monitor following the news, you dropped $2,430. Any more and they give your seat at the casino table to the next player in line.
And that’s how Amaranth’s Brian Hunter blew maybe $7 billion in the casino to HB&B, pretty much before he blinked. He knew he was playing hot money, but to his misfortune (and the billions of hard-earned tax-paid dollars of the real owner of the capital) he discovered that HB&B had perfected their smash & grab tactics at the nat gas futures table. Once behind, he double downed all the way to minus seven billion.
The term “hot money” by the way comes from HB&B – they want us to cool it.
That’s their modus operandi. Remember how they frowned on “day trading” and changed the trading rules for public day traders? An innocent bystander would think that a day trader is someone afflicted with aids, laying on a death bed. But who are by far the largest day traders in the world? Of course, its HB&B.
Reminds me of how the HB&B spin doctors called the nasty business of HB&B participating in their clients’ practice of front-running mutual funds trades that would exploit the NAV calculations of the Average Joe and his Mom & Pop. They called it (drum roll please) “market timing”, which is what you and I legally practice as one of our “hot money” tactics in our guerrilla war against HB&B.
So, it’s not that HB&B got caught with their Big Swinging Dicks exposed, and had to pay (has anybody seen a dime?) billions to Wall Street’s sheriff at the time, Eliot Spitzer, they made Joe, Mom & Pop feel like heels to boot.
Yesterday, amid the sloshing of hot money, there were some other things going on in what is called the US broad market – the one that mostly takes place at Broad and Wall in Lower Manhattan.
With easy access to debt, and a willingness to continue to play Momentum (“Go Mo!”), the musical chairs game continues. The melt-up in stocks is likely to continue until there is a melt-down in bonds, as I see it. But that will take more effort by central banks to keep interest rates lower than risk levels would otherwise dictate. So, speculation will abound.
Everybody was talking about the S&P 500 having topped the 1500 mark (like what does a round number mean?), and the NASDAQ set a new multiyear high. The spin doctors were saying that the US macro-economic data is now pointing to a rebounding economy, and with declining inflation pressure from wages and just a modest lift in commodity inflation, they say, then there is no end to the blue sky.
The bond market, however, dropped like a stone as the 10-year yield rocketed up to 4.67 pct, which in turn supported a recent rally in the $USD.
But here’s the key: yesterday, I wrote, “I’m still waiting for the melt-up in precious metals because gold is not going to be thrown away in a speculative crazy market. It will be the leader of the final charge to the broad market cycle top, I believe.”
Common sense prevailed in the afternoon because, despite dollar strength, the price of gold and copper rose +1 pct and +2 pct, respectively.
And even though the weekly US nat gas inventories rose an in-line 87Bcf, the futures price leaped +2.5 pct. Energy investors liked Big Oil (BP, CVC, MRO, MUR, RDSA, XOM) and natural gas (CHK, CNQ, PCZ, NGAS).
As for the mundane, the Telcos (+1.3 pct), Energy (+0.8 pct) and Industrials (+0.7 pct) were atop the leader board. Verizon (VZ) at a 52-week high, was quickly trying to close the gap with AT&T (T) with a gain of +6.6 pct over two sessions.
Earnings surprises from PRU and UNM pushed the life insurers (AFL,AIZ, MET, NFS, PRU, UNM) ahead strongly. The Autos (after GM’s earning’s miss) and the casinos (following MGM’s miss) were the laggards.
But, in the end, the US broad market has been trading in a two-day narrow range, awaiting the US Jobs data today.
The US Jobs Report will be out at 8:30am ET. The consensus is for a very low number, which, if and when beaten, will give those spin doctors more to write about in support of their stories that the US economy is in Goldilocks shape.
There is no reason to change what I wrote in this space yesterday morning. Another strong day. Shorts are being taken to the cleaners, which is one reason I don’t short a market until after pessimism takes hold of the global market, which happens maybe once in every four years or so. We’re not quite there. So far the Bulls are winning, whether you or I think they have a basis for that.
The power move, however, was in the morning. Precious metals started in the afternoon, and as we’ll see continued through overnight.
Same here.
Many holiday markets in this region today. The India BSE 30 dropped a bit, while markets in Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and Taiwan were up a bit.
UK, Germany and France bourses were all trading up early today (7:05am ET).
The $USD has kept its strength, up to 81.917 at 6:40am ET, which is close to yesterday’s 81.689 at this time. The big move was yesterday morning at 10am after release of the positive US econ data, when the $USD lifted quickly.
The Dollar has been trading in a range of 81.86-81.98, waiting for the news at 8:30am this morning. Trading since midnight is extremely volatile.
U.S. Treasury Bond Jun. 2007 contract
This chart shows how much of a hit the US Bonds took after the release of the strong econ data yesterday morning. Immediately the yields popped and bond prices plunged.
In two hours, the 10-year bond plunged from 112.03 to 111.22 as yields popped.
After that the prices recovered somewhat but were modestly soft at day’s end as gold was rising.
The e-Mini Jun-07 oil contracts are at 63.075 (7:05am ET), which is down just -0.925 at this time yesterday. There have been a series of downward price spikes this week, which helped crank equity prices higher.
Gold Jun-07 contracts on the NYMEX
This morning at 6:38am ET, June gold was back up to 684.00 from yesterday’s 678.40 at this time. Yesterday I said, “I’m going to show both the futures and spot price in gold from this point on as I expect the data will be helpful to nervous nellies who for some reason don’t share my confidence that gold prices are going to soar.” Nice call.
A floor of 682 is expected (by me!)
This morning at 7:09am ET, spot gold is up to 681.00 from 675.68 at this time yesterday, an improvement from 670.80 Wednesday at this time.
Spot silver was hammered Wed. morning at 13.13, down from 13.41 on Tuesday morning. Thurs. morning, spot silver was up to 13.31, at this time.
Yesterday I wrote, “I think the selling (ie, the downtrend this week) is over. Glittering skies ahead, I hope.” Nice call. This morning (7:09), spot silver is at 13.37.
Spot platinum is up to 1297, at 7:10am ET today, which is up +2 from yesterday at this time, and +12 from Wed. The trading range is 1294-1300. I’m looking for a break through 1300.
Spot palladium is up to 368 at 7:10am ET, down -4 from yesterday at this time. There is a new trading range of 368-372, which is up from the level of 366-368.50 for the past couple days. I expect it to move up from here.
On Tuesday morning, I wrote, “I note the media negativism re palladium vs platinum, but the palladium price is not dropping, which makes me think somebody is being deceptive.”
$CRB moved up from 310.52 to 311.77 at the close yesterday, almost back to Wed.
Yesterday I wrote, “Still backing and filling, and waiting. But $CRB will be up today, I believe.” Bingo.
Hugh Cleland and I will be lunching with Western Goldfield’s Randy Oliphant and Ray Threlkeld Thurs May 10. Randy says he’s waiting to see if we can “kick butt”. (LOL)
Randy was the former CEO at Barrick and the manager given all the credit for their hedge program, which may or not be fair. We’re going to ask if the new company used any puts and calls with their bankers in getting the loan because shareholders need to know if the upside has been capped at present gold levels or is higher to say 900 or 1000 gold.
Barrick was in the news yesterday with a report they finally ended the “Oliphant Hedge”. I said that yesterday, and that I was joshing. That news has helped the gold price.
Cara 100 Stockwatch
Here are the Cara 100 gainers in the last session.
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers
Yes, we talked about Materials coming back, and Lyondell (LYO) was a winner, and so was Silver Wheaton (SLW), which I also talked about.
Here are the top Cara 100 losers for the last session.
UBS took a hit yesterday.
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)
Here are the 52-week highs and lows in the Cara 100, set in the prior session.
Ten of the Cara 100 hit 52-week intra-day highs yesterday.
Here are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from “Chris”:
There are now 5 Cara 100 Company stocks that are below 30 on the Daily RSI-7 versus 22 above 70, using data from “Chris” – which he takes from BillCara2.com.
Here are the current Cara 100 RSI-7 values, sorted by highest and lowest, first by Daily values and then by Monthly, prepared by “David” using TC2007 (Worden) [based on Welles Wilder smoothing], which is slightly different than the RSI-7 formula used by “Chris”.
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading at extreme values:
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with Daily RSI-7 >70 and <30. You want to watch them for intra-day cross-overs, which can be effective short-term trading signals. And if the Monthly and Weekly RSI-7 is also >70 or <30 as the case may be (ie, in the Cara Distribution Zone [DZ] or Accumulation Zone [AZ] at that time, then you ought to expect a significant push behind the recent price motion.
There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website updates in the morning.
Wrap up:
Remember, since I mistakenly lost my only current Contact list on Microsoft Outlook, I need you to send me v-cards or mail with your co-ordinates to contacts@billcara.com. I have a month to re-build my records, and as I say, “Too much to do; too little time”.
Regular mail should go to BCara@BillCara.com
And of course your comments here are appreciated. As I change the mechanics, look and feel of this website in the next couple weeks, you will not have to use TypeKey for comments. You can just register here for comments or to get free research downloads from Wall Street and then you’ll go straight to the comments section if that’s your pleasure.
In time, I expect to see a daily average of 100-200 or more comments too. Obviously the quantity and quality is growing every month.
Have a great day.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 4, 2007 07:37:27 AM | Category: Cara's Bull Board
Discourse
ALOHA !!
WOW ... did I beat "imf"!
We'll see how the IBKR IPO goes today. I put in a bid for shares at $31USD and ended up with 1000, only a fifth of what I bid for! Oh well ... c'est la vi ...
I like the auctions better since I was able to put in a bid in five minutes on ETrade! WHAM BAM !!! My experiences with the HB&Bs is its an even bigger hit and miss! I'll do better on my next go round!
Good luck ...
Posted by: kaimu ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
May 4, 2007 7:50 AM [link]
Good luck Kaimu with your entry. I've never mustered the courage to do any of these--and I think that never having gone through the process contributes to that.
I see a Credit Suisse fellow was busted on the TXU and other various "leaks" on merger and acquisition information.
you did :-)
Awash in Liquidity / comstock
...If you believe the bull case that all the excess liquidity will have to flow into the U.S. stock market you would have to become bullish and join the fray. On the other hand, we took a look at the transaction of Cablevision that was announced yesterday. The Dolans are in the process of taking over CVC by taking on $15.5 billion of additional debt on top of the $12 billion already on the books. This will increase the debt to $27.5 billion while the total assets are only $10 billion. Is this what is called excess liquidity? ......
peter shiff on cnbc / what record high….?
Asian investments ” the dark side” / economist
UK Housing: Watch Out For The Cracks / Economist
russ winter has a very good piece about a "unusually" stock move
Janmes Cramer Doin’ the Monster Act?
Bill Gates wants Yahoo!? He's already GOT 1! What in the world is he going to do MSN. Shareholders may not like this, not even talking about the board of directors and last but not THE LEAST, the regulators, especially the Europeans which don't favor Microsoft's business practices AT ALL! from their rulings. They'd do just about anything to move a stock and/or the market alas "unnatural buying" and "conspiracies" especially of late. This is going to get even more interesting running up to next year!!!!
P-
invest_mavin
Gates should make a bid for ebay, that makes more sense, not Yahoo.
To SCARE Google... Yeah! NOW that sounds more like it! :)
Surprising report this morning!
U.S. April average workweek 33.8 hours vs 33.9 March
8:30 AM ET, May 04, 2007 - 33 seconds ago
02. U.S. April household job decline largest since Nov '02
8:30 AM ET, May 04, 2007 - 33 seconds ago
03. U.S. April factory jobs down 19,000; services up 116,000
8:30 AM ET, May 04, 2007 - 33 seconds ago
04. U.S. April construction jobs down 11,000
8:30 AM ET, May 04, 2007 - 33 seconds ago
05. U.S. April average hourly earnings up 0.2%, up 3.7yr-on-yr
8:30 AM ET, May 04, 2007 - 33 seconds ago
06. U.S. April nonfarm payroll smallest rise since Nov. '04
8:30 AM ET, May 04, 2007 - 33 seconds ago
07. U.S. April unemployment rate 4.5% vs 4.4% in March
8:30 AM ET, May 04, 2007 - 33 seconds ago
08. U.S. April nonfarm payrolls up 88,000 vs 100,000 expected
8:30 AM ET, May 04, 2007 - 33 seconds ago
Posted by: Alex at
May 4, 2007 8:32 AM [link]
Well, Alex, as they might say in England, that's goin' toss a spanner in the gearbox.
And here I thought it was going to be another dull day.
Posted by: number2son at
May 4, 2007 9:01 AM [link]
and from the 88.000 the government accounted for 25.000 (almost 30%).......
Dear Bill,
You're right, the jobs number will be revised. I have my own conspiratorial opinions, but in your much greater experience, Is a weak number such as this one more likely to be strengthened or weakened in revision? My guess is that the "recession" that will go officially unacknowledged and if acknowledged, the dates of which will be "revised" again retroactively to obfuscate the pain of a slow consumer economy, has already begun.
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 4, 2007 9:15 AM [link]
Haven't previous months been revised downward?
Also, April seems to be a big month for the birth/death manipulation.
What are the PM's saying?
Buckleup kids!
BTW, good luck to my IPO friends, I hope you knock em dead!
Posted by: Craig at
May 4, 2007 9:30 AM [link]
And MarketWatch reports that futures rise on the poor jobs report because, of course, that means the Fed is less likely to raise rates.
Why should I be surprised? There is no news that can't be turned into a positive with this market.
Posted by: number2son at
May 4, 2007 9:31 AM [link]
Yahoo up 18% in pre-market... why did I sell my $22 shares... :(
Pre-Market: 33.27 +5.09 (18.06%)
don't forget feb and march DOWNWARD revisions...makes for tradeable moments though.
jasper - yesterday you and others were talking about sentiment.
http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/2007/05/posting-on-comments-after-my-may-day.html
(no tiny url for me, our server blocks them)
here is a hypothesis about why public sentiment may not mean so much this time around,
however. Too many Big Swinging Dicks, out there. Try not to get caught up in the swordfights.:)
good luck out there.
Posted by: rob d at
May 4, 2007 9:45 AM [link]
slw above 12...didn't bill say something about heading to 15 if it clears resistance at 12?
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 4, 2007 9:47 AM [link]
Has anyone looked at the NXG report last night.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070503/20070503006523.html?.v=1
Is the 4% drop this morning justified? Is this a buying opportunity?
Posted by: JogyP at
May 4, 2007 9:59 AM [link]
slw is trying... trying really hard. SLV needs just a little boost to get slw to break upwards...
Posted by: Quentusrex at
May 4, 2007 10:03 AM [link]
Does anyone know how to track the number of Call positions that have been created in the last couple of days for YHOO, namely C30 and C32.5s? The Call to put ratio is about 2 to 1.
My broker's system was showing a volume today of 83M Call 32.5s (!?), now it's "only" 13,000, and 22,000 of C30s.
Posted by: SiO2 at
May 4, 2007 10:04 AM [link]
feel a snapper in uxg?
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 4, 2007 10:07 AM [link]
IBKR,
Do you gentleman have humongous accounts that you get such humongous allocations? Fidelity only allocated me 100. Fidelity looks at account size and trading activity. I've participated in a few ipo's there, and never gotten more than one hundred. I guess I have humongous envy.
Kaimu how did you pull in 1000? Give me a vicarious thrill.
INDIA:
Did anyone read Bill's complimentary report on India. Gave me pause to look at the chart. I used the cef/ IFN. Would you veterans say that it has the appearance of AZ? I used monthly, weekly, and daily data. At least the report implies India has a roboust economy to support gold conumerism.Of course this is my wish and bias. I made a small buy, very small, using INP.
Posted by: jasper at
May 4, 2007 10:08 AM [link]
Oil discovery in China
Posted by: yc32 at
May 4, 2007 10:12 AM [link]
number2son,
Except for stunning surprises (e.g. GDP contracting), economic numbers are always spun by the camp who holds the upper hand momentum wise (and if the market is hesitant, the glass half full stance usually prevails). So no surprise here that this "all-important" number affects nothing of substance. I also agree with Bill as to the doubtful quality of this survey anyway (well-documented elsewhere - see Mish, Ritholtz, Winter's blogs).
But who cares to make sense of actual economic conditions when every day provides a new dose of intrigue on the M&A front ? Last fall, Bill compared the conditions as akin to 1987 and the frenzy that led to the downfall. Everybody is in play. Rocket fuel galore to prop the market. As I asked some friends, who is today's Boesky? Drexel? Milken? (any opinion welcome)
JML
Posted by: Jumble at
May 4, 2007 10:12 AM [link]
Good merger morning, Bill!
It feels like Monday with all these rumored deals. Looks like a major pump into the fed meeting. Hate to see the decline if the Fed doesn't cut. Or maybe I'll just buy puts :)
2nd Ave., it's nice to see SLW at 12 again. This stock has exemplified the winter and spring of my discontent from November to March. As Bill says, i think SLW has major room to run, market willing.
ICE having a ncie move. Nibbled on some MNST, but just a little. Just can't see msft taking out yhoo, too big. Maybe it's time to buy some GOOG?
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
May 4, 2007 10:14 AM [link]
melt up well on its way. i can sense the new highs are drawing money in from the sidelines.
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 4, 2007 10:22 AM [link]
I think its unwise to make definite calls on price targets.
Even Bill, for instance, many years stopped in trading and very knowledgeable about markets was making number calls and estimates on the Dow [8800 then 9800].
It is just too hard and will make you more like ice
Be like water.
IMHO
By the way, I think the USD will gain strength based on contrarian theory. I mean, who doesnt make fun of the dollar is toast yadda yadda these days.
?
Posted by: stockershock at
May 4, 2007 10:23 AM [link]
I know this can be a touchy subject, but does anyone have an opinion on the latest "press release" re: KRY? It seems as if it was released last night, but that Dow Jones wanted us to see it so badly that they "republished" it again this morning, just in case we missed it the first time. Just wondering if this means anything, or if perhaps someone is looking for another selloff in order to get in at a lower level? If that is the case, it hasn't had an effect so far.
Posted by: writersblock at
May 4, 2007 10:24 AM [link]
PS: long KRY
Posted by: writersblock at
May 4, 2007 10:24 AM [link]
NXG
JogyP, I've had this stock for a couple years now, with a pretty good gain over that time, but the last year has been frustrating. I love it for the low P/E, but it seems the hedge book and the short reserve life are now holding it back. Short term, we seem to be looking at lower highs and lower lows, (bearish). I'll continue to hold, hoping that ever-higher gold prices will prop it back up, (and hopefully higher copper prices as well), but I'd be looking for better prospects for any fresh money.
Posted by: manx928 at
May 4, 2007 10:24 AM [link]
mogwai - re monster - just a heads up
Posted by: rob d at
May 4, 2007 10:26 AM [link]
Anyone lucky enough to buy MU on the latest pullback to 11.30 or so? Nice ride today.
Also UXG. Sure looks great at 5.58 or so NOW, huh?
And right on que, Bob and the Talking Noggins are playing their only song on CNBC. Bob even used the "notes" thoughtfully provided by the cheerleaders for the Big Schwings of the sell side, lest there be any doubt where the script comes from.
Posted by: Craig at
May 4, 2007 10:29 AM [link]
GOL
Written up in the latest Economist magazine. Cautiously impressed about its latest interest in expanding...acquisition of another airline pursued. May achieve more pricing power. (Went long a few weeks ago.)
Posted by: jasper at
May 4, 2007 10:29 AM [link]
Graig,
I got MU at 11.12 and UXG 5.60.
The question now is wheather to take the profits and run away or stay.
MU is having very high volume today.
Market has been very good to me for the last few days with my biggest bets MRVL, MU, SNDK, KGC, GRS,UXG,GG, KRY all doing good.
Picked up some NXG at 3.46 hoping for a move along with gold.
2nd Ave:
Ouch, BMD. I should have listened to you!
Posted by: JogyP at
May 4, 2007 10:54 AM [link]
Cool JogyP!
I picked up MU with a ten handle and added on the pullback. Also added more UXG.
Posted by: Craig at
May 4, 2007 11:05 AM [link]
IBKR has a nice pop after opening to trading. I love those auctions.
Posted by: Horatio at
May 4, 2007 11:05 AM [link]
Re: MNST.
That Cramer. Thanks, rob d. I'm treading carefully. GOOG getting some bids now.
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
May 4, 2007 11:14 AM [link]
>
Almost... including me, 2nd_Ave!
Posted by: GemmaStar at
May 4, 2007 11:57 AM [link]
In my post, 2nd_Ave's comment didn't appear. The comment was: "melt up well on its way. i can sense the new highs are drawing money in from the sidelines."
As I said, even my sidelined money is tempted.
Posted by: GemmaStar at
May 4, 2007 12:00 PM [link]
What's more valuable than oil, gold, silver, water today? Biodegradable plastic - long MBLX from $23.
Posted by: Tarheel at
May 4, 2007 12:11 PM [link]
Hello All,
Here to eat some crow. Was dead wrong on IVAN, call it IVAN the Terrible, it did nothing all week. Didn't buy CUP, EGO or MNG, all did great. The price ya gotta pay for feeling on top of the world sometimes is spending time on the bottom of it.
Have fun this weekend, and lemme know yer golf scores.
Chris the "pure technician"
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 4, 2007 12:19 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
IBKR did a nice little bounce and it seems Mr. Peterfly made a tidy sum as well!!! He owns 85% of IBKR and will get over $1.1bil today! Not bad for ringing a bell early in the morning!!
jasper ... Turns out I only got 600 shares of IBKR ... It seems magic happens when I sleep! Split between my wife and I in four different accounts and four different brokerages, but mainly ETrade.
I won't go into any more details about BIG accounts other than to just say "YES"!
There ... is that kinky enough! Well thats as far as I wanna go!
NAH !!! Okay you win here's some more kink ... "PETERFLY" !!! There ... oh ... "PETERFLY" !!! Yep ... "PETERFLY" ... Yeah baby !!! Yeah !!!
Posted by: kaimu at
May 4, 2007 12:29 PM [link]
Kaimu, Your theme song? Money, money, money or Superfly?
What's big money these days? I recall an interview with "Big John"...former gov of TX and former Sec of Treasury who personally went bankrupt with the oil gas bust. I think it was 1987, he declared that rich begins at 300million. And, extrapolate that to today?
I called the IPO desk at Fidelity, again. The deal is that with traditional ipo's, allocation is done internally and relatioship factors with F. are the key. In the open style of ipo's shares are prorated by an outside team. Today, the team came up with 27.3% of what was asked for at any price above 30.1 and no matter how often trade, size of acct, etc. Proration will be likely be the rule whenever there is a nontraditional ipo. Three days ago they told me differently. This is a small matter but it's a reminder about how much poor information is out there and that the individual has to push a little harder to do due diligence. Like Bill says in effect, "can't trust anyone."
Posted by: jasper at
May 4, 2007 12:54 PM [link]
Re: KRY
Crystallex Boosted by CEO Permit Update
http://www.antandsons.com/2007/05/crystallex-boosted-by-ceo-permit-update.html
Posted by: JogyP at
May 4, 2007 12:56 PM [link]
Jasper. Money opens doors. Cash opens them even wider. It all about who you know and whose back you scratch nicely. I got my allocation at $31.25.
Posted by: Horatio at
May 4, 2007 1:03 PM [link]
Some details on the IBRK auction.
http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/about/mediaRelations/05-03-07.php?ib_entity=llc
Posted by: Horatio at
May 4, 2007 1:08 PM [link]
Shark,
Please don't feel bad about IVAN. I'm glad you brought it up if only to have to have been led to read the really Bill's fascinating background story in this site's archive on IVAN and IVN. And appreciate you following up on the stock. Though you know, the stock still hasn't broken down and with volume drying up I'm still watching it.
Thanks,
Barry
Posted by: keycas at
May 4, 2007 1:08 PM [link]
JogyP,
You have plenty of time to take another position in BMD. This thing will probably stair-step its way up all summer. If the target is 8-12, don't let a few cents get in the way.
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 4, 2007 1:31 PM [link]
I received a message that Danny Hughes, who prepares the Cara 100 Stockwatch gainers/losers/52-week highs and lows, is in tough at the Mayo Clinic this week. I wish him the best possible outcome.
When Danny first wrote me, Nov. 29-06, he made reference to his strong religious beliefs, as follows:
"Bill,
I came across your site while looking for some information on ticker IBKR (customer of ours had a question and I researched to find it was a new IPO) and your mention of the book of Ecclesiastes caught my eye. Why? Well, you just don't see many financial related sites that reference the bible and any that do just catch my eye. I tend to trust them more.
I don't usually send emails like this, but for some reason I felt the urge to send you one. I work for a small company based in Ridgeland MS that is a financial information services provider. Our company offers un-biased information and we don't recommend stocks in any way. We have a number of institutional clients and I am trying to get the word out to individual traders...
Our website is http://www.knobias.com
You can see our products and sign up for a demo there.
/Danny
You know, I did, and a group of 20 of us in the Cara Community set up Team Knobias and tried to work with them. But there were some changes in January there that still need to be worked out. Danny, who is the database manager, was keeping me apprised. Meanwhile I have been using his print-outs for the blog, and I thank him.
We may live and work in a virtual world, but we are real people, who sometimes go through serious challenges in life.
The measure of a person in my book is how much you give back. Danny rates real high with me, and I wish him the best.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 4, 2007 1:42 PM [link]
Precious metals really hit the wall at 11:00am ET. For a while there it like it was going to run to the upside into the weekend.
With spot at 687, let's all put our shoulder into it and see if we can move it into the 690's today.
btw, I'm auditioning for an anchor job at CNBC. (LOL)
Crystallex (KRY) is up strongly on over 6 million shares (in US and Canada).
Silver Wheaton (SLW) needs to get a leg up on US$12, but gets pushed back.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 4, 2007 1:48 PM [link]
Yes, Jogy & Craig, MU is strong today. Also SIFY rebounding in the last few days. But CREE is trying to make me mad. I swear I could place a stop in the earth's inner core, only to have the stock sink exactly to that depth and then promptly recover, as happened a few days ago. CREE is a long term holding, so I later bought in again, but lost a few net percentage pts.
Posted by: tom sheepngoats at
May 4, 2007 1:55 PM [link]
RE: KRY: Thanks, Jogy - that wasn't the press release I was referring to, but I'm surely glad to see that one. The one I was talking about was on the Dow Jones newswire service I get over ETrade. I'm glad to see "they" weren't able to knock it down with the negative comments. Now that I see the release you pointed out, it makes me wonder whether or not the double "release" of the earlier "press report" was to counter that other news. Ah, the soap opera continueth! ;-) Long, KRY, MU, SLW.
Posted by: writersblock at
May 4, 2007 2:12 PM [link]
Another anecdotal claim to support continuation of the bull run:
http://tinyurl.com/2zmvg3
Bears beware. The recent move is actually a pull back. So buy the dip... I must really be reading the current situation upside down. No comment.
JML
Posted by: Jumble at
May 4, 2007 2:28 PM [link]
WHEW!!!
Check out the volume on the QID!
Hmmm, what's the bet?
Posted by: Craig at
May 4, 2007 2:36 PM [link]
craig-are you thinking of taking the other side of the trade for a pop monday morning..or do you think it's simply capitulation on the part of QID holders?
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 4, 2007 2:50 PM [link]
What QID volume? With one hour to go, we might not even reach 15 million shares (50% above 3-month average).
JML
Posted by: Jumble at
May 4, 2007 2:55 PM [link]
Dear Barry,
I hate being early, 'cause then I sell in frustration, and that is the signal to begin the upmove. Barry...Do you feel good about the IVAN uptrend? Does it hold the 50 day? What strength specifically would you personally need to see b4 buying?
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 4, 2007 2:58 PM [link]
Picked up some IBKR at 31.46 because it is a future Cara 100.
Posted by: JogyP at
May 4, 2007 3:01 PM [link]
Agree with Jumble--QID has a ways to go. March 14th volume was 24,836,396. OBV is down.
OBV on SLW up as it fights to stay above 12 level. If it does, next week will look at the September high of 12.21. Long SLW.
Posted by: Seamus at
May 4, 2007 3:03 PM [link]
I don't see capitulation. It's been pushing ahaead at times regardless of what the Q's were doing. No, this looked to be buying.
You don't see both the Q's and the QID going up at the same time all that often.
QID avg daily vol. 8261583. So far today 11780000
Posted by: Craig at
May 4, 2007 3:06 PM [link]
Wow! Yahoo is a yoyo today.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 4, 2007 3:16 PM [link]
IBKR
21840/34500 shares equals 63% turnover of shares today. IMHO a very mediocre first day performance except for the sellers, of course.
Posted by: Telestar3d at
May 4, 2007 3:24 PM [link]
Chris, I'm not all that seasoned as a trader but since you asked I would look for continued low volume basing without incident. I wouldn't try to anticipate this one and get in early because technically it can go either way from right here. Its already failed once so I want to see some good consolidation. Hasn't had any upside volume since the failed April 19 move. I would wait for it to move out of its short term channel with significant volume before I got in and I watch very closely for follow through. This is a pretty standard approach, I guess. I wouldn't fall in love with this one. Good Luck, Barry
Posted by: keycas at
May 4, 2007 3:28 PM [link]
Woops! a little over 8% now-was 11.47 at one point
The canary in the coal mine (a.k.a. GS) went singing into the weekend at ATH (albeit on lighter volume). So, early forecast for next week: clear sky & no buzz kill. Expect big merger Monday for the Golden son (first name: Paul, if you asked).
JML
Posted by: Jumble at
May 4, 2007 4:22 PM [link]
What a surprise, the wsj is now reporting that YHOO and MSFT are no longer in merger talks, but the NYT is still dangling hopes of a joint venture. Someone must have wanted to get out of a losing position in yahoo. I tell ya, this feels a lot like 1999. And I remember painfully what happened in spring 2000.
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
May 4, 2007 4:30 PM [link]
Last month our little community had the heart-breaking news of a suicide, someone who is a real loss to all of us, and now we hear about Danny's condition.
This is a good time to remember to include our virtual friends in our prayers for family and friends.
Posted by: GemmaStar at
May 4, 2007 4:45 PM [link]
A big, big MarkM thank you to Danny Hughes for his contributions to this site and this community. Hang in there buddy. You are always welcome to hang out with Leisa and I in The Woodshed if you need a change of scenery.
Posted by: MarkM at
May 4, 2007 4:55 PM [link]
Thanks, Barry, I agree.
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 4, 2007 5:11 PM [link]
Yes, the woodshed has ample room!
My well wishes are with Danny and his family.
Tarheel - Thanx for the post on MBLX. Just as the Saudis crank up petrochemicals, it's great if the US can start to move towards bio-plastics ! Just wish I had bought in before the breakkout ...
Posted by: Jock at
May 4, 2007 5:42 PM [link]
Sad about Danny. He looks so strong and vigorous in the pics. Here's hoping for the best for him.
And, thanks to you, Bill, for creating such a positive, open, and REAL community here in virtual-ville ...
Posted by: Jock at
May 4, 2007 5:56 PM [link]
Saw some sad news on BNN (formerly RobTV) today -- Jim O'Connell passed away yesterday after briefly battling an aggressive form of cancer he was diagnosed with in February. Jim was a long-running host of Market Call and other segments and was at RobTV from nearly the beginning. Not to mention years as a journalist and reporter in the field during the Gulf War, LA riots, etc. More details here:
http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/288808662490535.php
I really liked Jim and his open, honest and insightful interviews with guests; he was a total class act. You could tell he also had a strong influence on how the other on-air personalities conducted themselves as well... such a breath of fresh air and completely opposite the yappity-yap crowd at CNBC. I saw him last year in the Atrium at BCE Place where he was conducting a friendly "Great Gold Debate" with John Embry on the direction of gold and precious metals (amongst many things). He'll be missed.
Posted by: Maximilian at
May 4, 2007 6:03 PM [link]
Jim O'Connell was a media personality in Canada who exemplified the word professionalism.
It must not have been easy interviewing some guests about their ten cent stocks, while treating them with the same fine respect he accorded the titans of Canadian and American business he interviewed daily. But he managed.
BNN (formerly ROBTV) will surely miss him, as the audience will.
Life is strange. They say the good ones die young. Too many, anyway.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 4, 2007 6:40 PM [link]
Jim was a class act. I just don't know what to say but a tear was shed today. He was so cool, calm and collected. Damn those talking heads should have watched him perform.
Posted by: Horatio at
May 4, 2007 8:38 PM [link]
We open the papers this morning and find the same two- headed schizophrenia we have been watching for so many, many months.
One head proudly announces that not only is everything doing well – it is doing better than ever in history. The Dow hit a new record yesterday. The funds are flush with cash. Takeovers...Mergers and Acquisitions...new IPOs...are all headline news. Rupert Murdoch is bidding for Dow Jones, Microsoft is working on a major purchase.
Money...money...money! Deals...deals...deals..!
It is glorious to get rich...as Deng Tsaio Ping put it.
And many people, all over the world, think they are bound for glory.
Meanwhile, the other head hangs down in despair. “Actual underlying conditions of the world economy continue to deteriorate,” it mumbles.
Larry Fink, CEO of Black Rock, a trillion-dollar fund management company, spoke out last week and said that all these mergers and acquisitions were going to cause “tomorrow’s problems.” Why? Because they are all funded with debt. And lending standards for big, commercial deals have gone the same way as the lending standards for people buying trailers.
“Standards have deteriorated to a level that we never even dreamed we would see,” said Fink.
Almost on the very same day, the Bank of England said almost the same thing. Loose credit standards have “increased the vulnerability of the [global financial] system.”
The Boston Globe helpfully provides
more detail:
“Private equity firms are raising gigantic new funds, which in turn are buying companies on an unprecedented scale. The targets are bigger than ever, and the deals are gushing at fire-hose volume. But that isn't just a function of all the billions raised from limited partner investors. Borrowed money is the real fuel driving an overheated market.
"I think of this as a debt bubble, not a private equity bubble," says Kevin Landry, chief executive of the Boston private equity firm, TA Associates.
“Debt markets that finance private equity transactions have changed in three important ways. They are charging lower interest rates, reducing the premium normally charged for greater risk. They are lending more money for the purchase of an operating company, exceeding normal caps based on the cash generated by the acquired business. Finally, debt markets are reducing or virtually eliminating covenants and other rules that now make it almost impossible for private equity investors to default on loans used to buy companies.
“Got that? Low rates, more leverage, practically no conditions. How do you think that story is going to end?
"The reality is the markets are willing to provide extraordinary amounts of debt, almost indiscriminately,"
says Scott Sperling, co-president of Thomas H. Lee Partners, the big Boston private equity firm. "It's hard to put these companies into default. I can't think of the last time we had a real covenant in one of our deals."
In the financial deal business, it is still like the middle of the property boom, when householders practically couldn’t default, because lenders wouldn’t let them. As soon as they got into trouble, the lenders would give them more money.
Landry explained that in a deal his company made recently, he didn’t even have to make the scheduled payments. If he ran into trouble he could make a “toggle payment,” or "payment in kind," essentially borrowing more to make the regularly scheduled loan payment.
"How do you default?" asks Landry. "You used to say,
'Can I pay down enough of this debt so if a recession
hits I can get through it?' Now it doesn't matter even if a recession hits next week."
“Investors stretching for yield are making all kinds of markets do strange things. Look at the sub-prime mortgage market to see how that practice can end badly. Private equity's debt bubble could become another story with a very ugly ending.”
The bubble in sub-prime lending ended when the value of its collateral – housing – stopped rising in price. The bubble in Private Equity financing will pop too when its collateral – ultimately, the stock market – ceases to go up.
Then, over-stretched lenders will go broke. A few high- profile hustlers, prosecuted for financial hanky-panky, will go to jail. And, like soldiers tripping over the bodies of their dead comrades, the survivors will have to find some other route to glory.
Posted by: commod at
May 4, 2007 10:47 PM [link]
Bill,
I must confess that I have been watching the IBKR IPO with some skepticism, reminding myself of how much brokerage paper got put to the pidgeons in the market before the close of the last millenium and the big market sell-off that followed. If the pre-market buzz was for an under 30 IPO, past experience with broadly distributed and over-hyped IPO's suggests to me that some puts are in order. Whether I'm right or not will likely be known by next friday. I'm glad, Bill, you see this as a C100 stock - just need to find my AZ and I'm in!
Posted by: TerryC at
May 5, 2007 12:07 AM [link]
Why US is entering into recession.
I refer to Mr Rosenberg's (Merrill Lynch) report:
http://rsch1.ml.com/9093/24013/ds/20683431.PDF
and to an Italian blogger:
http://www.cobraf.com/forumf/cool_r_show.asp?topic_id=5959&reply_id=78709
and specially to the great government "estimation" of people employed in new companies:
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
The estimation is a theoretical growth of 317000 in new companies, but it never happened that "they" considered such a high level of "theoretical" growth, that they added to the real negative figures. Maybe a hard and big revision will come. But already with the current figures the situation is very dark.
Then you can add the fact that both RHI and MNST, two important staffing companies, are lagging behind the hyperbolic growth of stock exchange indexes. So, if we do our homework, we can see that the future does not look that bright, not to mention the debt bubble.
When do the financial markets will see the facts? I need a crystal ball!!! Please Bill lend me yours!
Posted by: Lelik at
May 5, 2007 4:25 AM [link]
commod-
They are so flush with what is being put on them by the relentless money push that they can't get rid of it fast enough. So they beg you to take it by lowering, lowering, lowering terms and conditions. Holder of the last resort is always Uncle Sam.
Posted by: MarkM at
May 5, 2007 6:41 AM [link]
HBB Comment
Bill,
Regard your comments on the Bond Market and front running by the big boys, you may recall how the SEC and the powers that be censured an HBB for shorting the the Crash of 87 w/out an up dick,I'm sorry uptick. I called FNN an actually talked on TV , because I couldn't understand why this was not a major news item and asked what was a censure and they poo pooed it. I don't believe there was even an investigation or a fine. So HBB is furiously dumping its clients stock at a loss and making Money? Now I didn't mention the name of the bank, but its initials are the same as a horrible debilitating disease.
Posted by: stocon at
May 5, 2007 9:01 AM [link]
MarkM, re: your comment that "Holder of the last resort is always Uncle Sam". Curious. The two initials spell a word: US.
That's the problem.
Those of us who had nothing to do with the foolishness must also insist that we won't pay for it. Let those who "profit" from foolishness pay their own piper.
Posted by: GemmaStar at
May 5, 2007 11:23 AM [link]
G/S-
Love the idea but you and I know it won't work that way. Expect GDP below trend for years as we work off excess, persistent inflation (though at low levels) and a higher tax burden to paper over the Great Greenspan Bernanke Big Happy Money and Consumption Economy. Somewhere in there is likely a big ol' haircut on the stock indices to boot.
Posted by: MarkM at
May 5, 2007 3:33 PM [link]
commod's post was lifted straight from the Daily Recoking, a free e-letter by Agora Financial publisher Bill Bonner. Just wanted to credit the person who actually wrote it.
Posted by: rob d at
May 5, 2007 9:39 PM [link]
oops...Reckoning
Posted by: rob d at
May 5, 2007 9:39 PM [link]
MarkM, I know (*sigh*) that you're right.
Arrrggghhhhh!!!!!
But I can hope, can't I????
Posted by: GemmaStar at
May 5, 2007 10:56 PM [link]
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Reuters says it's received a takeover approach
http://tinyurl.com/3c8nht
I am a bit worried about it as Bloomberg reports it could be my employer bidding.
Posted by: JogyP![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
May 4, 2007 7:47 AM [link]