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May 11, 2007
Cara’s Daily Board, Fri., May 11, 2007, 8:21 AM
On Thursday, the DJIA (-147.74 -1.11 pct) and NASDAQ Composite (-42.6 -1.65 pct) plummeted from Wednesday’s all-time, multi-year records. The Dow Transports (DJTA -1.8 pct) and Dow Utilities (-1.4 pct) were also crashing, but as KNOBIAS reports, “paint a slightly different picture, each having turned lower from a 2-week-old plateau that now has the look of a short term double top.”
Some of the key “tells” in the marketplace gave traders some insights to the possible market trend: Homebuilders ($XBH -2.3 pct) and Retailers ($RLX -1.2 pct) had short-term cycle highs two weeks ago; Broker-dealers ($XBD -1.5 pct) hit a peak this Monday (prior to Wed’s broad market record-setter); and Semi-conductors ($SOX -2.1 pct) it was Tuesday.
Since I was away the whole day, I’ll take the word of KNOBIAS who reported, “(Thursday's) selling was a liquidity event. Of the 88 industry groups only one, full line insurance, managed a modest (+0.1%) gain. After that close, even that industry is in the red with AIG trading lower despite a +8.4% Q1 EPS surprise.”
Yesterday morning, well before there was any indication of the market sell-off, I wrote, “(Cara 100) Costco (NDQ:COST) this morning reported a +7 pct gain in same store sales. Where is the money coming from?... (and there was on Wed.) a bearish plunge of (-6.5 pct) in the shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO). I thought (Cara 100) Cisco had given shareholders a good report for 3Q07 (ending April). Maybe traders are twitchy?” So maybe I was feeling the antennae starting to tune into something. I don’t know.
But the day is gone and now traders need to analyze the damage. In it there might be clues to the future.
Early yesterday (North American time), the central banks of Europe, ie, Bank of England and the European Central Bank, reported, like the Fed did a day earlier.
For BoE, the market had been expecting the central bank to raise rates by 25 basis points (25 bp) to 5.50 pct. The ECB was expected to maintain a hold on rates. Both results occurred.
The BoE reported a “small” inflation problem to which I remarked, “I’d say so. Have you checked the price of real estate in the UK versus the US or Canada. We, on this side of the Pond, are getting off easy. I don’t know how the Average Joe in the UK can afford to live – higher prices and lower incomes.”
Thank you to the readers from the UK who ponied up the truth of what is going on in Europe. Basically, the place is now unaffordable for the Average Joe. Tens of thousands of workers in Germany are protesting in an effort to gain +6.5 pct wage increases. These are the wealth creators who know that printing paper by government is only putting them further behind the eight ball. They understand the impact of inflation and wages that seem to be capped as VIP’s of their employers are pulling down annual wages and benefits in the tens of millions. At the end of the month when bills can’t be paid, these workers are ticked off.
I figure unless something is done to alleviate the pressure that 2H07 is going to be a period of worker riots. It’s not that the People “want theirs too”, it’s a fact of life they “need” theirs. They could care less that the share prices of their employers are hitting all-time records because of stuff like share buy-backs and inflated dividends that consume more than the free cash flow being generated by the operations of these companies. None of that stuff matters to the People.
I am not an activist here; but reporting what I see. This is not a good situation to be paying all these bonuses to managers and shareholders with wage inflation about to ignite. Share prices can be pushed to extreme heights (as they are every few years), and they can be pulled down by reality (which happens every few years).
That reality started to set in on May 10 2006. Yesterday, exactly a year later, reality took another step. At some point soon, the world will be awash in reality. Mark these words.
Traders may soon become like a thirsty animal on the Plains of the Serengeti, desperate for any signs of water, which in market parlance is called a real bid, not one from Johnny or Maria across the desk.
Yesterday, right before the “Event”, I wrote here, “The Bulls are happy but the charts show a nervous picture where there are major sell-off’s to start the day and then a claw back to higher prices as the spin in the market comes out and as, I believe, sector rotation occurs as Funds reposition their portfolios.”
Yesterday, there was no claw back. Maybe the Gnomes were buying put options into the mid-day strength of the past few days? Do you think?
Asia-Pacific markets have turned somewhat weak. Yesterday morning, I reported, “The big story this morning is that Goldman Sachs put out a “Sell” on the China equity market on the basis of valuation, citing a recent triple in the index. That ought to catch a few deer in the headlights.”
How prophetic.
“All red arrows in Europe” is what I reported yesterday morning. More of the same today.
“Tony Blair, Britain’s Prime Minister, has resigned his post effective June 27, which is earlier than expected.” I wrote that too. Today, traders are probably saying, “Not soon enough!” As the republic has a fixed term for Presidents, many Americans can only be envious of parliamentary democracies, today. :-)
The $USD had a lot of support in the morning as equity prices cratered. Traders were rushing to cash and T-Bills. Rising yields helped support the Dollar.
U.S. Treasury Bond Jun. 2007 contract
Yesterday early, before the “Event”, I reported/opined, “Rising yields all through the day, including right after the FOMC announcement at 2:15pm, had a significant impact on bonds. This is the picture I expect to see more of until there is a consequent negative impact on the equity market. The point is that monetary authorities cannot fight the present wave of speculation by dropping rates, and I suspect that bond traders understand this and are selling.”
I think that’s pretty accurate.
The e-Mini Jun-07 oil contracts on Wed. spiked down to a mid-day low of 60.7. Yesterday, the mid-day spike low only took Crude Oil near futures down to 61.4 before strengthening.
A little more strength is apparent today.
Yesterday I wrote in this space, “After the prices plunged late yesterday morning, they dropped to a low of 60.7, which opened eyes. After all, the summer driving season is about to begin, and the Retailers are saying same store sales are very good, so people ought to have money to pay at the fill-up station.”
Now, we all know Summer is rapidly approaching, and hurricane season not far behind, but the retailer/discretionary spending picture may be rapidly changing as well. The big guys, Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT), really ran into a brick wall last month. Not being afforded (gifted?) ten million or hundred million compensation packages, the Average Joe is back to counting pennies. Just at a time that governments are talking of no longer making them, which might be another ploy to kill the copper market. (LOL)
The counting pennies is not a laughing matter, however. Look at WMT and TGT.
Gold Jun-07 contracts on the NYMEX
Central banks have been hammering away at gold.
No matter. We all know that central banks are also printing money and putting it on trees for Private Equity and Friends & Family, and we know where that story takes us.
This morning at 7.37am ET, spot gold is at 668.15, which is down from 676.35 at about this time yesterday, and 682.60 Wed, 684.70 on Tuesday and about 688 on Monday. In other words, the central bankers, and maybe HB&B are selling gold.
Somebody’s buying it. I call it The People.
Isn’t it better to be buying low and selling high? I think the People have it right.
Yesterday I wrote, “I think if you re-read my words earlier in the week, I was advising caution and an expectation of soft prices until the market can get past all the central bank hoopla this week. This is a time when commodity prices get hit because of central banker intervention. My calling it a scheduled c-section by the c.bankers seemed to hit a note early (Wednesday)! But if you look at the chart, I was right on the mark.”
More of the same. Now with equity prices giving the appearance of a nose dive, let’s see what central bankers do now. Remember what they did right after the market smash on May 10 exactly a year ago. Go back to the gold charts after that smash in the face central bankers gave gold traders earlier in that month. It became the yellow brick road.
Spot silver is at 13.05, up from 13.01 an hour ago. The Thursday low was 12.92. Overnight there was another low of 12,94.
So we are now as I type (as fast as two fingers go), Spot silver is near the top of the past day’s 12.92-13.06 range, following the smash down mid-day yesterday.
Spot platinum is at 1313, up +1 from an hour ago. Yesterday it was 1320 at this time, down from 1336 from right before Crude Oil prices started plunging in the mid day earlier.
Spot palladium is down to 357 from yesterday at this time at 361. It broke down from a 368-376 trading range the day before as soon as the Crude Oil market started to plunge.
Inflation data is on the way. It probably won’t look too bad, and the spin will begin that rates can come off, and the Fed can start to pump again, and it will be a new ball game.
Go PM’s!
$CRB dropped to 307.84, and the Fed can point out a year ago, $CRB was trading about 365, and they can take their bow before returning to the printing presses.
Yesterday, as gold stocks were getting hammered, did you see that Western Goldfields was flat. After all, they were taking me to dinner at Pangea so I couldn’t in all good conscience let the price dip under the (sparkling) water.
And there was Crystallex (KRY) shocking conservative traders. Something’s up. Permit maybe?
Also, the big winner on the day is Val Gold (TSX.V: VAL). I wasn’t watching the screen, and can’t take credit. But I did write it up recently.
Cara 100 Stockwatch
Here are the Cara 100 gainers for the previous session.
Interactive chart of the top Watch List gainers
Only six winners for the Cara 100 today. Tough day for the Bulls.
What jumped off the page at me was that one winner was up +4.5 pct on a miserable trading session that smashed most stocks. Then I saw the NYSE trading volume for CHA was just 339,000 shares. Short squeeze maybe? I hope somebody can check that out for us.
Here are the top Cara 100 losers for the previous session.
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)
Interesting that the first 25 losers started with Whole Food Markets (WFMI), which I have written about often, usually saying “come to me, baby”. With a new 52-week intra-day low, I’d say it is.
Here’s the deal: when you buy a so-called “hot stock” of a quality company after it has been under promotion and is hitting new highs, you are buying at the high, which means you are at risk. You are vulnerable to all those who have a lower cost base.
Trading is an effort to constantly work your cost base lower.
Now if you hit the Buy button on WFMI at its 52-week low, don’t think about it possibly going lower; just think that with all the computers, and knowledge and experience and skill of all the best money managers in the world, you (Mr. Average Joe) got to buy Whole Food Markets at a cheaper price than any of them over the past year. Think about it. It is your job to buy low, sell high and only be interested in high quality companies like Whole Food Markets.
I don’t care what anybody else in the world says. That is the first, second and third rule in the “Lessons of the Trader Wizard” (soon to hit your bookshelf I hope – probably mid-Sept).
Here are the 52-week highs and lows in the Cara 100, set in the prior session.
Only five of the Cara 100 companies hit 52-week intra-day stock highs yesterday, while WFMI hit a low.
With the thought that just maybe a cycle high was reached Wednesday and Thursday might have been the start of something big, let’s take a snap-shot of the Cara 100 trading monitor, courtesy of ADVFN.com. The Bears will enjoy this picture, but remember, the market is mostly about today and tomorrow.
Here are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from “Chris”:
There are now 13 Cara 100 Company stocks that are below 30 on the Daily RSI-7 (up from 5) versus 2 above 70, (down sharply). This result uses data from “Chris” – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which he takes from Worden.
Here are the current Cara 100 RSI-7 values, sorted by highest and lowest, first by Daily values and then by Monthly, prepared by “David” using TC2007 (Worden) [based on Welles Wilder smoothing], which is slightly different than the RSI-7 formula used by “Chris”.
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading at extreme values:
There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website updates in the morning.
Not too many upgrades.
Just to prove the notion that Wall Street analysts (as good as I think some are) are really sheep, after yesterday’s sharp pull-back in market prices, just watch for the downgrades to start.
It’s called “intellectual dishonesty”.
Wrap up:
Yesterday, in this space, I gave you some food for thought: “A rating service called CXO Advisory Group calls me a “Guru” and then says I’m a really bad one. They say that I am consistently wrong because of my market pessimism. That’s partly fair. (But) As they say, “like water off the duck’s back!” I could care less about what anybody thinks of me, although I never wanted to be called a ‘Guru’”.
I was trying to explain why I think CXO Advisory is perhaps a good effort, with failing marks, but I’ll let others make that call.
The fact is that I’ll stack my reader testimonials against anybody else on the CXO Advisory “Guru” list, and we all know that with the extreme volume of my output, typing as fast as two fingers permits, I’m not in a marketing or guru mind-set. This is education, information, and facilitation the best that a six-year retiree working from home can do.
So, I wrote, “Anyway I do what I can do. This blog as you know is a one-person production to this point. The bigger point here is that following the market smash on May 10 2006, I was always waiting for the next shoe to drop, and it never did. I have been in continuous defensive mode throughout this time, for legitimate reasons I feel. At the end of the day, let’s judge the winners.”
LOL, I didn’t mean THAT DAY, May 10, 2007!
The point is that a rating service has to compare apples to apples. We are going to rate specific trade recommendations/discussion or we’re going to rate accuracy of forecasting market trend. If it’s the latter, which I gather from the brief look I took, is the eminent domain of the CXO Advisory service, then time horizon of the forecaster must be considered. So let’s wait until the end of the day, which in the parlance of the capital marketplace means the end of a complete market cycle for both stocks and bonds.
Besides, a large part of the information I give readers regarding what anybody might perceive is a trend forecast of the broad market MUST be understood is my attempt to register with the Average Joe my reading of the fear-greed pendulum – not the market’s reading. So if I suggest that the market, or a large segment of it, is ready to drop here, what I am saying, and I think is understood is that I’m nervous for those readers who are Bulls and personally I have my finger close to the SELL button. That doesn’t mean to say I am pulling the trigger.
As a matter of evidentiary support, it was last July 21 or thereabouts when I gave the alert that 19 tech stocks had together given me an indication that higher prices would soon occur, but given that May 10 2006 was in the recent rear-view mirror and that a second shoe might drop, I felt that those stocks might not rally for more than a couple weeks. I was later surprised that the monetary authorities happened to be saying one thing and doing another, which was pumping money into the system, which in turn had the (probably desired) effect in the equity market, and those tech stocks ran for months. I did the same in the first week of Jan 2007 with regard to 20 gold stocks, and you know the result of that as well.
So to conclude, when I see a service like CXO Advisory pointing you to the “success” of many of the people on that list, I don’t take it seriously. I laugh.
At the end of the day. Remember that expression. When all is said and done, who is going to be remembered for contributing to society is the only issue, and in that regard I know who I am, what I am doing and why I am doing it. Unlike all the rest of the CXO Advisory guru’s I am retired, I receive no payment of any kind from anybody, and I write my own stuff, at my own leisure, for your benefit, not the benefit of filling “content” of some crappy rating service like CXO Advisory or Amazon Alexis.
I am only pointing this out because it is important to me that you all understand that when I say the most important thing you can do as a person trying to make better financial decisions is to learn how to hunt in the forest, with learned skills and experience, totally ignoring the noise of others who have conflicting objectives. I’m not a “guru forecaster” or entertainer. I’m a teacher with a ministry. Enough said.
I concluded yesterday, “Life is a matter of confidence… Don’t ever lose it.”
Have a great day.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 11, 2007 08:21:51 AM | Category: Cara's Bull Board
Discourse
VERY weak retail sales report from Commerce. GDP must be nearly flatlining. Let's get long!
Posted by: MarkM ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
May 11, 2007 8:42 AM [link]
hello from germany,
Dow vs Gold / chart
so much for the nominal record.......
Bourses in China eclipse all of Asia
The global merger boom - déjà-vu / Economist
interactive chart for 18 housing metro regions
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
have a nice weekend
"CXO Advisory is a website run by a sharp minded researcher (as far as I can tell) by the name of Steve LeCompte.
I was struck by how down-to-earth these people are, and it makes me feel good for the future of the independent segment of the blogosphere."
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2005/11/its_time_to_kis.html
Are they only "sharp minded" and "down-to-earth" if they give you good reviews, Bill? It seems to me that they have accurately reported the record of your predictions about the market since you've come onto the internet. The problem, if there is one, isn't with CXO.
Posted by: Patty at
May 11, 2007 8:49 AM [link]
Quick question to anyone who knows: Given the huge amount of money printing, liquidity, inflation, whatever you wish to call it, wouldn't a major market crash help solve the problem rather quickly? if the bids disappear or gap down 20 percent and selling mania ensues, does that money basically just disappear? in this way, would a major correction or crash not be a good way to sort of start over? i.e. if it was worldwide, as everywhere in the world seems to be involved in printing excess money, etc.
everyone always talks about the problems, but how can governments really solve it all? it'd be much easier if this was just a board game called "world economy" and we could start over, get a second chance.
Posted by: Eric at
May 11, 2007 8:52 AM [link]
Bill,
Anyone who reaches the top of their field is going to take a few incoming rocks thrown by those judging others by their own bankrupt morals.
Now we know how they view themselves.
As long as they are throwing uphill take no notice of it.
I have learned more about the true nature of the markets and how to get my financial/investing act together HERE than anywhere in any medium.
All I can presently do is Thank You for sharing.
It is truly appreciated.
Yesterday I posted WFMI to the list as on sale. In the past I wouldn't have recognized the opportunity. Not now. I also watched WGDF all day standing strong on a down day, my only green indicator all day. Thanks to you.
I was also more on top of the full year chart and last years post fed drop, which I wouldn't have seen without this site and the edumacation I get here and from my fellow readers who help me more than they know.
Thank you everyone!
Posted by: Craig at
May 11, 2007 8:56 AM [link]
MarkM, Rick45
I like RYWBX in lieu of MERKX, but have both plus CAQ and FDPIX in various managed accounts as currency hedges over the past 12-14 months. I think the fees may be less in the Rydex than the Axel Merk. Of course if the tide turns the other way . . .
Posted by: Seamus at
May 11, 2007 9:03 AM [link]
Bill,
Good title!
Posted by: jiggstoo at
May 11, 2007 9:08 AM [link]
I consider myself an Average Joe and this morning, along with my sweetheart, separated our pennies made before 1982 that are still in circulation and socked them away in a can for future use. As of the close yesterday for copper, the melt value of a penny was $0.02409. That's a nice gain for an effort that included conversation and a cup of coffee before going our separate ways for the day ;)
Posted by: C.Note at
May 11, 2007 9:12 AM [link]
Seamus-
Thanks for the shout.
Looks like they will try to bump it up. I am guessing it fades then tries to rally into the close. Just a hunch.
Posted by: MarkM at
May 11, 2007 9:24 AM [link]
One more thing on WFMI.
We learn here that many times it's best to bet the jockey.
I have known one of the big players at Whole foods since I was a youngster. His name is Michael Besancon and he ran Johnny Weismiller Naturla Foods for years and then bought the co and renamed it "Follow Your Heart" which became one of the largest and most successful organic markets and restaurants in Southern California.
Michael now works for WFMI and he is the guy that came up with the notion of buying all renewable power and he was responsible for putting that system in place. He is the guy that makes all those WFMI power presentations on TV.
Disclosure: I now have a small holding in WFMI and I haven't talked to Michael in some time.
Posted by: Craig at
May 11, 2007 9:33 AM [link]
Patty,
As to me being the problem...
I don't agree at all. When I first saw the CXOA material a couple years ago, I barely looked at it. I referenced the notion that people outside the mainstream media could do a better job, sometimes, than those who may have axes to grind, personally or for their bosses. I never reviewed CXOA at that point because I had no basis of knowledge.
Today, I feel like the person witnessing an event that is later reported by the media. The witness can easily see how offside the reporting is. That's still not a comment about that reporter, but about the incident.
I feel I'm in the same position. I'm never going to review CXOA because, other than my comments of a couple years ago, I really don't have the time or interest.
And with respect for you calling me the problem, all I can say is that I disagree, but again, I don't have the time or interest to debate you.
My advice to you, based on your perspective, is simple: find another "guru". Why waste your valuable time on people you think are a problem?
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 11, 2007 9:37 AM [link]
Dear Bill,
You wrote last night..."Maybe that's the hold-up on KRY's permit, and why GFI's Cockerill doesn't seem to be overly enthusiastic at the prospects of buying either or both GRZ/KRY, at the moment. Maybe this is all in the cards, just waiting for Chavez and the Chinese authorities to stike a deal? "
I must ask...If Chavez and the Chinese did agree to strike a deal, what would the value of the shares that they "must" purchase be? Very little perhaps, once that intention was announced?
Please tell me...Has your opinion changed in the last couple of days about KRY's quick permiting prospects, and what are the chances out of ten that a permit will be received quickly, in your opinion? I am making money today, but do I want to hold over the weekend?
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 11, 2007 9:40 AM [link]
Chris wrote: "I am making money today, but do I want to hold over the weekend?"
Only You can answer that question.
GPN
Dr. Sen mentioned GPN on his site a few days ago. Notice the tight bollinger bands on this one. No position.
Posted by: Seamus at
May 11, 2007 9:50 AM [link]
to writersblock,
I am not an expert nor do i have expert tools. Those block trades from yesterday were gathered after market close. Many here pay for premium services where you can watch this activity in real time.
But after hours you can go to
http://tinyurl.com/2vldst
Also the "5.x" column was the price of the transaction on TSX exchange cdn
And this is only for TSX. But I will soon look into a paid service that offers this infoin real time. anyone here recommend one where it shows block trades BEFORE they happen ;)
Posted by: NYUgrad at
May 11, 2007 9:53 AM [link]
BMD: 1Q07 earnings report/conference call Monday 5/14 @11am Eastern...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 11, 2007 9:57 AM [link]
Hi People,
Boughtt the KRY at the close yesterday $4.66, sold into the rally today 4.81, gonna re-buy ? think here in the low 70's. Bill, waddaya think? Bill....Have conditions materially worsened in your estimation regarding permit receipt?
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 11, 2007 10:02 AM [link]
Patty,
While I agree that the CXO Advisory does a reasonable job of scoring the track record of the "gurus" (I'd call them investors who share knowledge), the timeline is not long enough to be very significant. Much of Bill's teaching is to follow the rigor of the AZ and DZ trading of quality companies and not buying or selling the whole market.
I also follow John Hussman and have a large holding in his hedged stock fund and CXO also rates his forecasting as poor, but look at his track record from market peak to market bottom, or even from market peak to today (which I believe is another peak) and he's still up 12% annualized. If that's poor forecasting then I'm ok with it.
Posted by: storhund at
May 11, 2007 10:06 AM [link]
I'd like a little advice from the community. I trade using BMO Investorline. All my personal and business banking is with BMO. I've started to make a lot of junior mining stock trades. The commissions I'm paying are approximately 1.5% to buy and 1.5% to sell. My average trade is in the $5,000 range. When I add capital gains tax to the these commissions it costs me a lot of money and becomes apparent that I will have to be very good to make money trading "penny stocks" frequently. I signed up for Active Trader status with BMO which will lower the commissions to $9.95 each way starting in July. I only trade stocks (no options) and don't short. Can anyone suggest a better alternative for me to use? Thanks.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 11, 2007 10:12 AM [link]
When would the central bank hoopla be behind us?
What to look for, before buying getting back on the yellow brick road. Really would like feedback on thoughts from others on the process of managing gold and gold miners going forward.
Wed/8th/ i sold all of my GLD etf, but the next day when it the price started coming back I thought I would start scaling back in. Bought 20% back. Impatience.
I'm the first to say that I make misinterpretations of Bill's commentary, picking up one part but not the whole. To be a good blog reader I think it helps to have as many similarities as possible with the blogger's prior point of view and financial behavior. When there's a deficit in this regard, the reader, like me, can be thick as a brick.
As I take stock of myself, this is not my cup of tea, and I look forward to the day when I can find a match with an asset manager. (When Bill gets set up for such, I would love to contact him about this.) Meanwhile, I'm here to learn how to protect my capital, with major major attention to the asset class of gold and gold mining stocks. I've held positions on the mining stocks, buying on a few dips in the past.
Those more in tune with Bill's style...is it a mistake to hold/accumulate and to then to look for when to sell the mining stocks, or is this a more circular process where i need to be prepared to sell into periodic strength...or are both styles effective?
Holding: slw,gfi,kgc,uxg,wgdf,gdx,grz(smallest position)I,too, wish to thank Bill for letting us have a share of his luncheon. His network of people is amazing. As they say, knowledge is power.
Posted by: jasper at
May 11, 2007 10:15 AM [link]
Mike Swanson on WallstreetWindow.com pointed out an article on Kitco.com written by John Lee http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/may102007.html
Lee used Alexa.com to track the visits to Kitco.com over the past 5 yrs and compared it to the tops in the price of gold and XAU. The visits to Kitco.com peaked in the beginning of 2004 and again in May last year when gold also peaked. At this point the visits to Kitco are about the same as in the late 2004 - mid 2005 time period when gold was getting ready to blast higher. His analysis indicates we are closer to a bottom than a top in gold.
Posted by: bobj at
May 11, 2007 10:16 AM [link]
Every person I ever met has critics. That is a reality.
This morning I received a letter from someone whom all of you would consider to be highly successful, academically, professionally and financially. Here's the letter (from ANON) and my reply.
-----------------
Hello Bill,
Some will get it, others will not. Please pay little attention to detractors lacking insight. They are not worth your time. You emailed me "my server stats are running an annual rate of 93 million...". I am sure you know what you have here and it is great . It is good for you and it is good for us the readers.
Stay focused on the prize. Ignore flawed criticism. You know this. I just wish to show support.
/ANON
---------------------------
Hi ANON,
I never let criticism bother me unless I know in my own mind it is justified. As I wrote a day or two ago, "it's like water off the duck's back".
But I learned a long time ago, if the critic invites himself into your house to leave his droppings, then you must take a shot back. Otherwise there will be copycat critics.
If the critic wants to then carry on a vendetta of some kind, I just flat-out make a final statement and then ban the person.
In a very few cases, I have done that. But, in at least 25 pct of the banned people, they subsequently discussed matters with me and were allowed to return, and have since then been civil.
I presently receive an average of just a tad under 10,000 hits per hour 24 hours a day 365 days a year. This month, my daily average is 230,992 (with a max of 303,659).
From Sunday through Wednesday, the four-day total hits were 1,119,232 (279,808 average). Tuesday and Wednesday, the average was 299,137 hits per day. Yesterday will be higher when the server stats are fully updated.
That is a run rate of ~100 million per year. The People have spoken.
Best,
/Bill
------------
It is a great satisfaction to know that sometime soon this blog will receive 1 million hits in a single day. My parents were always proud, but somehow I think they would be really smiling from heaven today.
And they know that I know there is nobody else among amateur trading bloggers (ie, those who don't write for major publications or are guests on national/international TV shows) who can beat that record.
To my critics, it is a big world out there. Why not enjoy it.
To my readers, thank you for sharing with me and us your contributions by way of comments and personal letters of support. I try to keep my time commitment to this blog to under two hours a day, and get the Daily Report finished early enough that I have the whole day ahead of me to enjoy it too. You make it difficult, but the more you push me, the more I want to give in return.
Thank you.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 11, 2007 10:18 AM [link]
Bill,
How did you like Pangea? Lovely place in my opinion. I held my latest birthday gathering there. They have a private room that you may know of... One of my friends does work for the owner, so we got a bit of help getting that room.
Posted by: Fazeli at
May 11, 2007 10:25 AM [link]
Patty,
It's all a matter of learning about probabilities and sensing which direction to go.
What I need--and have found on this site--is a diverse, yet serious, discourse, moderated by an engaging and knowledgeable commentator, regarding what's going on in the markets and what implications may ensue.
I don't want a "guru" to tell me what I need to do. I need a reliable context in which to gain an understanding of the ongoing mathematical chaos called socio-economic investment.
Since I started hanging around the Bill Cara site six months ago I'm up 37.5%. That may not astound anyone but it does keep me hanging around . . . .
Posted by: johojo at
May 11, 2007 10:31 AM [link]
Fred,
Bill recommended earlier and I took his advice. Moved all the funds over to Tradeking. 4.95 each way and .65 + trade for options. Superb website, little support (but that is what Bill is for.) Don't know what kind of brokerage services you are looking for but for the discount brokerages this one takes the cake.
Best
Tripp
Posted by: TcolemanUF at
May 11, 2007 10:34 AM [link]
Gammon Lake Resources Inc. (GRS) down almost 6% today after reporting results yesterday.
http://www.gammonlake.com/financials_new/first_quarterly_2007.pdf
Anyone care to comment on the results as it appears to be very negative. (Less than expected production, higher costs).
Posted by: JogyP at
May 11, 2007 10:35 AM [link]
Hey 2nd,
RE: BMD, they are getting pushed around here some before earnings. Do you have a take on this?
I usually see this tape action before so-so numbers and some analyst got a whiff.
Posted by: Craig at
May 11, 2007 10:37 AM [link]
Thanks Tripp.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 11, 2007 10:37 AM [link]
Anyone looking at SBUX here? Daily and weekly RSIs are < 30, and looks to be close to support from August and May lows.
Posted by: doug11 at
May 11, 2007 10:49 AM [link]
Good morning, Bill.
Fierce snapback rally. Bulls are hitting the EEM and FXI shorts pretty hard. FXI nearing its high of 118 in January. I really thought that once Goldman put out the sell on China;s market that they were ready to orchestrate another big takedown. Might still happen heading into options next week, but today's a day to put some pain on the bulls.
Good to see the PM stocks getting a bid. ICE moving well.
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
May 11, 2007 10:52 AM [link]
Sorry, i meant today is "put some pain on the BEARS." Guess I'm looking too much toward next week.
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
May 11, 2007 10:53 AM [link]
I always watch SBUX but I'm waiting for it to come to me in the mid-20's. Summer is slow season for SBUX, sales increase in cold weather, so you *should* have time.
Coffee prices fell but milk is up. Guess what SBUX sells more of? That's correcto, more milk by far. Also, cold drinks tend to take more time than the standard hot drinks.
Posted by: Craig at
May 11, 2007 11:04 AM [link]
NYUgrad: Thanks for the info about block trading. I did not know it was a pay-per-play type thing, but figures, as every information bit that can be monetized, is. My brokerage, ETrade, doesn't offer it, as far as I can tell. Let me know if you find the one that tells you AHEAD of the trades ;-). In the mean time, anyone have a recommendation for an in depth, real time information service, something that offers more than the average online brokerage service offers?
Maggie
Posted by: writersblock at
May 11, 2007 11:07 AM [link]
TcolemanUF and Fred,
I don't recall ever writing about TradeKing, and the archives showed nothing. But their website looks good, and they seem to be rated highly by Barron's.
Fred, if you are Cdn, then BMO Investorline used to be rated #1 in Canada. It was also founded/operated by a friend of mine Peter Hickman, who departed after the Nesbitt merger/interference, where he joined HSBC where he founded/operated the HSBC Direct in both Canada and the US until that deal was joined in a disastrous $1 billion merger with Merrill Lynch in 2000. He later departed with a seven year severance, which he used to build a web-based art gallery/dealership that he now runs from his Mediterranean villa type home overlooking the Sea to Sky Highway on the road to Whistler. I dealt with Peter from Bahamas when I was there for four years in the mid-90's. Absolutely the best.
As for an electronic broker in Canada, why not look at my old firm Qtrade, which is now rated #1 in Canada. Disclosure: I still own my Qtrade founder's/CEO shares (and will not sell).
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 11, 2007 11:10 AM [link]
johojo,
You said: "Since I started hanging around the Bill Cara site six months ago I'm up 37.5%. That may not astound anyone but it does keep me hanging around".
I came round to this site last week for the first time. And I will hang around (at least six months!).
Seriously: it is great reading and I am sure it will be very useful. Thanks Bill.
Posted by: Just at
May 11, 2007 11:10 AM [link]
ANyone else see that rather large green spike on the one day DJIND chart, right around 11:00AM? Hmmmm
Posted by: writersblock at
May 11, 2007 11:15 AM [link]
Volume spike, that is.
Maggie
Posted by: writersblock at
May 11, 2007 11:17 AM [link]
A little issue with Qtrade, and ETrade, and TradeFreedom, is the commissions they charge for some options. Occasionally a few hundred contracts of options priced at $0.15 or so. With DirectInvesting (RBC) I currenty pay a fixed $34. With any of the above the commission can be in the hundreds. Never understood why they charge so much - this is why I don't switch to them unfortunately - I am also looking for a brokerage to switch to. I guess there is no perfect one.
Tradeking looks good, but they don't operate in Canada.
Posted by: SiO2 at
May 11, 2007 11:20 AM [link]
re Gammon Lake (GRS -5.8 pct today after reporting yesterday). I haven't looked at the report, but the Company took on a new CEO April 3, and he is cleaning house. The latest is a new CFO (ex-food store Sobey's man). You had to realize that such changes in a small company give opportunity to the new management to sweep the place clean, and that usually means tough action/talk. I believe GRS will have better days ahead. The BMO analyst has a 12-month Price Target (PT) of C$29.00 and an Outperform rating.
In my view Gammon Lake (AMEX:GRS $14.60) stock is a much better deal than say Yamana (NYSE:AUY $14.02). So maybe CXOA can track that one for six months?
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 11, 2007 11:24 AM [link]
I was at Tim Hortons yesterday and they pulled all extra large cups due to leaking. They told me it was franchise-wide.
Here's a technical explanation on what the issue is...
http://www.officiallyscrewed.com/blog/?p=711
I have not seen this in the news yet.
Sbux has been stagnating for awhile...
Thanks Bill,
I'll check out Qtrade. I'm originally from Toronto but, moved to sunny White Rock, B.C. three years ago for a short-term contract and stayed here.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 11, 2007 11:27 AM [link]
Okay, GRS is on my screen/watchlist. 6 mos you say? Alright, done.
Gee Bill, maybe they should look at MU since the $10's or some of your other calls. I don't think they are paying attention.
Posted by: Craig at
May 11, 2007 11:36 AM [link]
Fred...
"'sunny' White Rock" ???...
WR is a 'cool' little town but sunny I would not call it...
Maybe its just my relative perspective from the California wine country (Santa Rosa, Sonoma County)...
However, if something compelled me to move to Canada WR would be my town (second place goes to Victoria)...
If we get a S&P500 close over 1510 on Monday due to buyouts/mergers then on Tuesday I intend to lighten up on positions held by my family since 1952 (father...now deceased...was one of the early mutual fund investors and stayed 'all in through thick and thin')...the fund portfolio is totally US-centric and requires a tax-efficient geographic rebalance...
Posted by: esbisworried at
May 11, 2007 11:57 AM [link]
Good Morning Bill and the Cara community. Hey Bill, can I call you Goo for short? lol. While I would like to have someone else grow my small pot o gold for me, I would be giving control and responsibility for my wellbeing to someone else! Actually sounds like giving up a little bit of my freedom...hmmmmm, maybe not a good idea. Already too much of that going on down here in the lower 48. To use a bs marketing term; Bill you are Empowering me! By teaching a way to evaluate price action, you teach me to fish. Thanks.
Now for the question nagging at me. Is the "buy and hold" tactic effective for the next 2-5 years - assuming an inflationary and maybe recessionary period? I took some serious hits 2000-2003 by giving up total control of my lil nest egg. As I am now learning to fish I am taking a more active approach.
Jasper asked this question earlier and I think it’s the same question I am asking to all here in this community.....
"is it a mistake to hold/accumulate and to then to look for when to sell the mining stocks, or is this a more circular process where I need to be prepared to sell into periodic strength...or are both styles effective?"
Tia for any input.
Looking at sbux and wfmi, waiting for the upturn to signal buy
Long wgdf,gfi,gld,kry,axca,at,luv,ticc
peace
Gray
Posted by: Photogray at
May 11, 2007 11:59 AM [link]
Bill,
Thank you for your take on GRS. I have been buying it on the dips and I guess I am going to have to sit on it for few months.
Sorry about bringing up CXO.
I send them an e-mail using the link below suggesting them to use individual picks for grading the gurus.
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/contactus/
As for brokers, why not www.interactivebrokers.com
IBKR at reasonable levels now. put in a GTC order to buy more at 27.5
Posted by: JogyP at
May 11, 2007 12:05 PM [link]
esbisworried,
Thanks, I enjoyed that. I will say that in White Rock it rains less than on the Sunshine Coast.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 11, 2007 12:07 PM [link]
Taking huge risks? - To the guy who blithely suggested yesterday it's OK to take huge risks when you're starting out, with little capital...
Upon reflection, I have to say it's NEVER smart to bet the ranch. If you lose big-time, the impact on your morale will be devastating. You also create bad habits. (Look how Jesse Livermore ended up: suicide.) Learn disciplne now; position sizing, use of stops.
Learn and stick to rules like these: only take a big trading position in a liquid stock, with stops, where you're max risk (single position-stop/total portfolio = max 2%). Never have more than 6% of total portfolio at risk, i.e. current value to stops <6% of total. These rules (drawn from Alex Elder, but more widely known) will save you from yourself; your "learning experiences" won't bankrupt you or drive you to drink! Learning good trading habits is more important to long-term success than a few "hail mary" wins ...
Posted by: Jock at
May 11, 2007 12:08 PM [link]
I'm obviously repeating the sentiment others have already expressed above but -
At first I was intrigued by the site and anxious to hear Bill's response about the low batting average of his calls. However, I know one can make very compelling points by manipulating stats to support bogus points of view so ofcourse I investigated further. It's quick to see it's based only on broad generalizations of the S&P500 and is extremely end point sensitive. I suppose if your only option is to buy or sell the S&P500 index, Bill's site is not for you. As many know the broad market weakness that was called for did not pan out, but Bill certainly offered an alternative portfolio that has fared much better. Thus one who followed advice that was reported as a miss, who have ended with higher returns seems to be quite a dilemma. I failed to see any commentary on particular stock recommendations. I wonder if the results would be any different even on the S&P500 basis if results were simply inflation adjusted for that matter. Happy Friday to all.
Posted by: rusticuf at
May 11, 2007 12:09 PM [link]
Dear Bill,
I only post comments to express my gratitude to you and your blog community since I'm a novice. What a difference from May 10,2006 and yesterday. In '06 I lost 20% of my money because I didn't see the full view of the market as I do now because of this site. Near the end of Feb. '07 I was 90% in cash and sailed through the day the market fell approx. 350-400 pts. Also by rotating into the gold/silver miners stocks and selling/buying in the highs/dips has been a winning play, thanks to BillCara.com.
I use this site to get the big picture (gross view) and with this knowledge I decide to scale back or add to my individual stocks. Also it helps me with sector rotation.
I say "thank you" to everyone who contributes to this blog.
A novice trader, Sarah-Hadassah
Posted by: SH at
May 11, 2007 12:12 PM [link]
With all the respect, the CXO Advisory Group Grades are scientifically worthless. No need to explain why, right…
I would just say that in order to compare Gurus you must have all the gurus predict the same indices on the the same time frame over and over again. That is a basic requirement for a comparison with minimum validity.(I think forbes is running something like that )
Personally As a reader I think you are better at picking Individual stocks (specifically metals juniors…) and the CARA 100.
Anyway, I for one read your blog to learn about your process of thinking and your insights regarding capital markets and the global economy.
As far as im concerned blogging is mostly about sharing opinions and thinking out loud… - you are excellent in that , that for sure.
Thank You for being generous.
Marco in Spain says that his country is just now starting to offer ETF's (because the banks don't earn the commissions they get via stocks and funds). He's looking for a good source of info on ETF's outside of anything he can find at my site.
The Forbes choice is Morningstar.com. I use AMEX.com and NASDAQ.com.
Maybe some of you could share your ideas on the best info for ETF's?
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 11, 2007 12:42 PM [link]
GRS bouncing around @14.25- 14.40 or so with a RSI of about 28 (on a 12 mo chart).
Posted by: Craig at
May 11, 2007 12:47 PM [link]
re: Alexa.com Kitco hits vs. POG
I've also looked at Google trends
http://tinyurl.com/2vnowc
and seen the same thing.
Posted by: omphalos at
May 11, 2007 12:48 PM [link]
There is a lot of info on ETFs available these days. Seekingalpha.com publishes comments on ETFs at http://etf.seekingalpha.com/
Other info can be found at
<a href="http://www.streetauthority.com/pdf/SA17-11-2006_11-27-
There is a bewildering variety of ETFs available: general indexes, sectors, subsectors, emerging markets, and so on. My preferences at the moment are EWM, following the Malaysian stock exchange, and DFE, the Wisdom Tree Dividend-weighted European small cap ETF.
Posted by: kurtwalter at
May 11, 2007 1:01 PM [link]
re ETF websites.
In order of the ones I use, as a resource.
IndexUniverse is the most interesting for analytical articles. Just published one on "infrastructure"
("With many unique attributes, infrastructure can be though of as a separate asset class that deserves the attention of investors with an appetite for exposure to defensive, high-yielding securities. As this asset class emerges, we expect it may follow a course similar to REITs: one of growth and diversification. Among the key components that could drive this growth are increasing demand from both institutional and retail investors and increasing supply from the growing privatization of infrastructure assets. If exposure to infrastructure is an investment objective, gaining this exposure through an index-based vehicle such as an ETF is likely the most efficient means for the vast majority of investors.)
For now GII is the only etf.
indexuniverse.com
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/
(great for screening re: inception date and volume)
Posted by: jasper at
May 11, 2007 1:01 PM [link]
I just tried posting a list of etf websites...but post would not take...got the message that it is being screened for malicious content...????
Posted by: jasper at
May 11, 2007 1:05 PM [link]
To whom it might concern....
CNBC is reporting those big block trades around 11.00AM were Citigroup @ $53.40
Posted by: Craig at
May 11, 2007 1:07 PM [link]
WHR
With news today of slowing consumer spending, shorting WHR here could be a good idea.
78/81/69 ( daily dropping below 70). Price is currently 112.50
Posted by: holdenll at
May 11, 2007 1:15 PM [link]
jasper,
I don't know why your post would not take. Once you are approved by TypeKey, which is a service many bloggers use (and have no control over), you are free to post whatever.
Having had many readers tell me of problems with TypeKey (which I too experience), I decided to go to my own reader registry system for those who want to make comments or receive free Wall Street research etc. We should have that ready in a month or so. You will then have totally open access to this website and the other two I am developing.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 11, 2007 1:16 PM [link]
Peter Grandich just made a comment that goldminers who operate in the US outside the State of Nevada have difficult issues with environmentalists. He discussed Montana and California, for example, where promoters are looking to re-activate old mines, as being particularly tough.
I agree. I think Nevada is the US jurisdiction of choice for goldminers, and as Robt McEwen says, the gold is there.
California is where Western Goldfields operates, and I believe the company has no environmental problems. It has a license to operate its mine plan, and Los Angeles County is a business partner. So, when you hear that California is a difficult jurisdiction, I concur, but that does not apply to Western Goldfields.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 11, 2007 1:23 PM [link]
Bill:
RE ETF Info - I have found ETF Connect at www.etfconnect.com to be useful.
Posted by: RobBoss at
May 11, 2007 1:26 PM [link]
Try this link for searching ETF's:
http://www.stockpickr.com/etf/
The site itself is a nice place to search through stocks that one may be interested in.
Posted by: redclaydawg at
May 11, 2007 1:26 PM [link]
Posted by: Telestar3d at
May 11, 2007 1:30 PM [link]
With respect to block trades, block trades can be a very useful tool, but it is not the “Holy Grail.”
I do however know the secret. The secret is there is no secret.
Posted by: Telestar3d at
May 11, 2007 1:32 PM [link]
lovesaves,
i'm assuming you are in Canada (like myself). I have an account with tradefreedom.com . the trades are 9.95, no monthly minimums, no quarterly minimums, free platform which allows real-time quotes level 1 1/4 i believe. also will let you see real time quotes for free (streaming) on tsxv (up to ten) on web-based platform. best of luck
Posted by: Eric at
May 11, 2007 1:38 PM [link]
Hi Bill,
I don't understand the CXO's motivation in attacking you. They must be jealous of you & your cult. We appreciate for all you do for us.
thanks, jk
Posted by: jk484 at
May 11, 2007 1:44 PM [link]
re ETF websites...new attempt to post
In order of the ones I use, as a resource.
IndexUniverse is the most interesting for analytical articles. Just published one on "infrastructure"
("With many unique attributes, infrastructure can be though of as a separate asset class that deserves the attention of investors with an appetite for exposure to defensive, high-yielding securities. As this asset class emerges, we expect it may follow a course similar to REITs: one of growth and diversification. Among the key components that could drive this growth are increasing demand from both institutional and retail investors and increasing supply from the growing privatization of infrastructure assets. If exposure to infrastructure is an investment objective, gaining this exposure through an index-based vehicle such as an ETF is likely the most efficient means for the vast majority of investors.)
For now GII is the only etf.
http://www.etftrends.com/...for new etfs and articles
indexuniverse.com
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/
(great for screening re: inception date and volume)
Posted by: jasper at
May 11, 2007 1:45 PM [link]
re ETF websites.
3rd attempt...and editing post to just one site
In order of the ones I use, as a resource.
IndexUniverse.com is the most interesting for analytical articles. Just published one on "infrastructure"
("With many unique attributes, infrastructure can be though of as a separate asset class that deserves the attention of investors with an appetite for exposure to defensive, high-yielding securities. As this asset class emerges, we expect it may follow a course similar to REITs: one of growth and diversification. Among the key components that could drive this growth are increasing demand from both institutional and retail investors and increasing supply from the growing privatization of infrastructure assets. If exposure to infrastructure is an investment objective, gaining this exposure through an index-based vehicle such as an ETF is likely the most efficient means for the vast majority of investors.)
For now GII is the only etf.
Posted by: jasper at
May 11, 2007 1:47 PM [link]
re ETF websites.
indexuniverse.com
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/
(great for screening re: inception date and volume)
Posted by: jasper at
May 11, 2007 1:48 PM [link]
re ETF websites.
etftrends.com/
(for new etfs)
marketwatch.com/tools/
(great for screening re: inception date and volume)
Posted by: jasper at
May 11, 2007 1:49 PM [link]
Bill,
I have a question.
When you are watching a stock to buy and it enters your AZ, since you already have price in mind, do you put on your position all at once or do you stage your buys?
Posted by: Craig at
May 11, 2007 1:53 PM [link]
cool for checking overall intraday performance:
http://screening.nasdaq.com/heatmaps/Heatmap_ETF.asp
good for mutual fund and etf info.
www.indexfunds.com
hope it helps.
Posted by: rob d at
May 11, 2007 1:54 PM [link]
Please, people, nobody at CXOA attacked me. I have never had a discussion with them (at least any I can recall). They have a discipline that ranks me second last on their list. That's fine; my favorite on that list is last and the best of the rest, in my opinion, is just ahead of me. This should not be a distraction.
I only pointed it out because I want to be fair. I want readers to know that some investor services on the web don't think that highly of whatever it is they think I do. That's ok. There are different strokes for different folks.
That's all. Remember, I even had one reader who stated that he had alerted the SEC about my pointing readers to the stock of a "worthless" company that is rated as a BUY or Strong Buy by the majority of Canadian analysts who follow it.
With some people, you cannot win. So, you move on. Full stop. Please.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 11, 2007 1:55 PM [link]
Jock, I thought your advice posted at 12:08 PM re: taking huge risks was (and is) spot on.
Thanks for your contribution.
Posted by: GemmaStar at
May 11, 2007 2:01 PM [link]
Hello all..this is way..Way off topic, my apology. Today the volume on (FXI) Xinhua 25 index was 300% according to my StockTiming update. Can anyone search block trades on the index? Is this a setup of a short?
Here I am sitting in a 17' rowboat on a calm inland pond, learning to fish and I see a 300' wave coming at me! I'm learning to question whats pushing the wave.
peace
Gray
RE: Block trades: RE: C - thanks, Craig. I wonder which way those monster trades went, and since I've heard that the financials must lead the market for it to rise, I wonder, do they mean anything in that respect?
Maggie
Posted by: writersblock at
May 11, 2007 2:12 PM [link]
Well put, Bill. (I was writing a lengthy reply to the commenters' indignation but Typekey ate my post). First, criticism is healthy IMO, so we should all welcome it From whoever it comes (as long as it doesn't come from malicious motivations). Second, a lot of very smart minds suffered the indignation of being wrong (and underperforming) from mid-1999 to late 2000. Flash forward to 2003 or today and their errant ways are now acknoledged and feted (BTW, Gartman called for a bear market on Feb. 27 eve and the tremendous liquidity injection since mid-March has proven him dead wrong. Yet underlying risks & conditions remain). Third, Bill offers opinions and analyses not advice. Most of us form way more opinions (very wrong ones at times) than we actually trade on. So let's judge a track record of actual investments, not free-flowing, daily writings (Bill will submit himself to this harsh benchmarking when he returns to advisory).
JML
Posted by: Jumble at
May 11, 2007 2:14 PM [link]
Bill,
Thanks for your notes on Western Goldfields. I have no position (yet) but seeing these new changes being implemented may push me over the edge yet. I think I speak for everybody when I say that we are greatful for your efforts regarding the company, especially since you have no vested interest (and such a full plate of other things to do).
You mentioned Fleck earlier. I follow him as well. He is also accused of being "early to the party." He is good company to be in, in my opinion.
Posted by: ricej11 at
May 11, 2007 2:14 PM [link]
Telestar, RE: block trades and holy grails. yes, I know, they're not the Holy Grail. :-) However, novice that I am, I wonder whether or not knowing a little something about them might lead one to information as to sector rotation, and hence, a little more about market direction?
Maggie
Posted by: writersblock at
May 11, 2007 2:15 PM [link]
Anyone else finding the markets odd today? Choppy, quick little whip-saws -- just odd. My TIKI indicator has hit the magic +26 6 times, too. I sometimes wonder if that's the PPT in action. My conclusion is that something funny is going on...
Posted by: omphalos at
May 11, 2007 2:22 PM [link]
Is Cramer becoming frustrated by his poor relative performance?
I find very interesting his latest "dirty dozen" strategy of targeting stocks with relatively limited float and (reportedly) heavy institutional interest (WHR, BDK, ATI, BGC, HON, ASD, JCI, MDR, FWLT, CAT, TEX, DE). Take a look at their recent moves and today's actions. Sure, you can point to sharp price moves, but watch out for heavy institutional distribution to his bilndly-following retail audience. Interesting the cyclical concentration of his picks. So much for diversification.
JML
Posted by: Jumble at
May 11, 2007 2:23 PM [link]
The above is also a resource to check out for ETF's.
oomph-
Pretty clear on the charts. Quick buying burst this morning in the middle of the fade, then another quick burst when that stalled out. Nice work if you can get it.
Posted by: MarkM at
May 11, 2007 2:32 PM [link]
RE: WHR
Hmmm, that could be a nice short setup. It's been fading since 12:30. Cramer did a pump job of all the big caps yesterday, including whr and hon.
RE: FXI
Yup, there's some major volume moving FXI today, some six million shares. I'd say part of it is in expectation of a following up day Monday in China, but the word blowoff has crossed my mind. However, SNP does looks like a very clean breakout.
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
May 11, 2007 2:35 PM [link]
These are some of Bill's recs that I remember because I traded them
GLD at $52 March-April 2006 . Went to $70+ in early May 2006.
DELL at $19 July 2006. Was over $23 in August and subsequently went to $28 in December.
SNDK at under $38 July 2006. Went to $60+ in less than a month.
IVN at $6-7 summer 2006. Went to $11+ in November and as high as $14 last month.
KRY at under $2.50-3 last fall. Currently $4.80
GRZ mentioned several times at around $4. Currently at $7
UXG mentioned several times at $4 in Jan- Feb. Was as high as $7 last month and is currently $5.50+
WFMI at $42-43 in Jan-Feb. Spiked to $52+ in 2 weeks.
I recall Bill mentioning INTC at under $17 last summer though I never traded it. Currently trades at $22+.
I recall SBUX being mentioned at under $30 last summer and it went to $38+ in a few months.
Recall NVDA in the low $20s and it went to $38+ in December.
Bill has mentioned RIMM several times around $100 and now its $150.
Posted by: TheAdonis at
May 11, 2007 2:37 PM [link]
Dear Bill and Co.
Negative divergences in on daily and intra for KRY suggest that absent a permit, the stock may be under pressure.
HAPPY MOTHERS DAY!!!!!!
Chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 11, 2007 2:45 PM [link]
With regard to CXOA, I know Jasper did a back test and posted his reults back on March 24th. Doubtful that CXOA ever took that in to account, which at the end of the day is what this site is about trading prices in the AZ and DZ.
I just did a 2.1 yr back test of the cara100 with relative strength trading once per 30-40 days as a preference. The cutoff value is 30(among the 100 stocks) and the stocks are ranked by a risk adjusted roc 15day period. Stops are placed at 5% for purchase and 6% for trailing. Total return is 452%, no more than 9.3 trades per year, 67% win rate. Not exactly value trading ala Bill, but I'll take these results. Current holding is VIP, buy signal was 3/19.
Posted by: jasper at March 24, 2007 6:55 PM
I'd take these results for any time period.
PS~ Sorry Bill. I learned of Tradeking from your site but it must have been one of your acolytes in a post. I did a thorough investigation of their site and talked to their customer service department. All in all I have been using them since January of this year and not a single complaint. Did not mean to put words in your mouth.
Tripp
Posted by: TcolemanUF at
May 11, 2007 2:48 PM [link]
Referring above to the macd and momentum. weekends starting early. will rebuy on a nice drop....chris
Posted by: shark_attack at
May 11, 2007 2:49 PM [link]
craig,
Re BMD:
I honestly don't know how the conference call will go. I think it's a good price to be adding. Summer is when roads get built in Alberta, and they may want to announce more orders for aggregate, but it could just as easily be a non-event. fwiw, the latest high-volume moves have been on up days.
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
May 11, 2007 2:50 PM [link]
Thank you 2nd,
Today they are down but on about 1/2 normal daily volume. I'm down no more than a normal market swing and a smallish position so I'm not too worried.
Bill,
Sorry about the dumb question, WFMI kinda confused me until I remembered it is at the 52 wk low, so an all in buy has low downside risk.
If I was buying all in with GRS today I would have been a total bozo. Still a little scary chart seeing nothing below for real support until what? $9 and change.
Posted by: Craig at
May 11, 2007 3:03 PM [link]
Hi Folks, soliciting some feedback, not advice. I'm 33, within my retirement fund I have successfully made the following trades with no more then 25% of my holdings: Energy ETF XEG in at 85 May 2 out May 7 at 87.8. Toyota in yesterday at 118 out today at 120.1.
Crystallex (2% of funds) in on May 9 at 4.86 and out today at 5.35
I've been reading the site for many weeks and try my best to follow along. Using some of the RSI 7 related az/dz to guide me.
Anyhow, being newer to this and a departure from my buy & hold ETF previous "couch potato" approach, this is new ground for me. I'm not savy, don't deal options, and am not employed in Capital Markets etc. Very simplisitic. my questions are, Am I being naive? Am I ignorant of greater forces here and poised to get wiped out by someone/something? My reason for departing my "couch potato" plan, is based on what i read, i've formulated an opinion a correction could be imminent, and after a couple of solid >10% years doing the couch potato, i'm trying my best to avoid or not get caught in a big correction.
The strategy I am testing is quick holds with small gains aggregated. my question to the forum: Is what i'm doing a "going out business" strategy of sorts and I just don't know it yet? Similar to a black jack table where the odds are against someone of my limited skills? Or is this a legitimate way to manage ones funds? Appreciate the feedback and critique. Writing this i am 80% or so in cash waiting for the next RSI 7 <30. thanks for anyone's opinion, Andy.
Posted by: steele73 at
May 11, 2007 3:08 PM [link]
Andy,
Why did you buy each holding? Why did you sell each holding? After paying trading commissions did you make money?
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 11, 2007 3:21 PM [link]
Craig,
About WFMI (or any stock of a good quality company) that may be down in the Cara Accumulation Zone (I call it that not because there is anything proprietary but because these are rules I follow. You have the same right to call it Craig's AZ, and maybe you like RSI-14, and maybe the levels are 32 and 68 for you, or whatever. Maybe you just use the Daily or a combo of Weekly-Daily, etc. I'm trying to give people a framework for decisions, and nothing more.
To answer your question, when a stock is down in the AZ, epecially without much company, I will actually ignore the Wall Street research (not that they do a bad job), and go straight to the latest SEC EDGAR quarterly filing, and then to the management discussion. I'm looking to see if there is any reason for the company to break down. Since this is a Cara 100 company, I have aready decided I like management, hence I have to trust the text they file with the SEC. Sometimes I can read between the lines. The discussion usually does not take much time to read. Also, I will look to see if there is a resignation/termination of CEO or CFO or Director or Auditor. These are red flags for me, but mostly it's trying to see if the CEO is giving a hint of problems.
If not, then I'll have a quick look at Wall Street research. If I'm ready to buy, but still nervous, I'll scale down the order and try to paint the bottom -- even if the order size is not that big. It's a matter of trying to sustain confidence.
WFMI really doesn't have a peer group, like most of the High Tech 19 I listed last July 21 or thereabouts. But when it appears that an entire peer group is oversold and probably turning around (with the Daily RSI-7 breaking upwards through 30) for the majority of the group, then I will not go in as small as with say a WFMI that is now quite low in price without many others to compare to.
Hope that helps.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 11, 2007 3:39 PM [link]
Hi Fred, sorry to be brief, last response just got nuked by my mistake. anyhow. I bought TM since it was near AZ zone. XEG was because 50DMA crossed 200DMA. and KRY was speculative.
Sold simply to lock in gains.
Strategy again is accumulation of positive trades with limited time in the market.
Less fee's up approx 1100 cdn dollars.
Posted by: steele73 at
May 11, 2007 3:41 PM [link]
Steele78 -
I may be incorrect but my limited understanding of the AZ/DZ has a longer time horizon in mind - i.e. a purchase with intention to hold until it reaches the DZ. It is also more of an alert to consider a transaction more than a blind rule. As Bill pointed out his entry in the comments on the 5/9 BB, he also uses other indicators before completing a transaction. FWIW, I'm restating as much for my own clarification and would continue to seek feedback from the others, but I hope this helps.
Posted by: rusticuf at
May 11, 2007 3:54 PM [link]
Andy,
Ask yourself, if the three holdings had dropped by 2 or 3 percent instead of going up would I have held them or sold? The worst thing that can happen is you get caught always selling winners and holding losers.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 11, 2007 3:55 PM [link]
Thank You Bill.
I usually do all fundamental research, see any segment competitors and charts, check all the news feeds and the SEC EDGAR filings and run a time series of charts to see where possible support is and how the stock tends to trade.
Where is it likely to go?
If I'm going to invest, that is buy longer term, I tend to use longer term RSI and then the daily to buy.
If it's a range trade like I've been doing for the last few weeks with GME until recently, I use the daily/intraday RSI and the known price range to get in and out.
My minimum opening size corresponds with a 1% commission, which is $700 USD for me as my broker is $7 in and out. I usually buy in stages like today buying GRS opening small and getting larger as I paint it down. Since I'm using RSI to buy and sell (all time frames as a buying tool and also depending on time of holding) I tend to sell all at once so my fees stay well under 2%.
I bought WFMI in thirds which worked fine near the 52 wk low.
I used to buy larger and then get scaled down in smaller position buys which killed my confidence and returns. Much help at Bill Cara.com helped me stop that.
Thank you again. Any further suggestions are certainly appreciated.
Posted by: Craig at
May 11, 2007 4:34 PM [link]
re fxi,
Anyone who is using a relative strength strategy,particularly with a moderately long roc period which is considered conservative, may regard this as a screaming buy. I did. My own strategy called to buy a few days ago. I'm supposed to let the numbers talk; they have no emotion...but I do.
re Japan,
Economist mag has an interesting article. BOJ may raise interest rates to stimulate consumer buying. ...if that makes sense. The country really has problems. Carry trade/liquidity could continue even with rates up, implied. But, whoa, what a shock to the system, I think.
The more I read, the more moving parts. Overwhelming. To think that mutual funds hire a huge research staff with mega academic credentials, and then there are the one man operations that do fine or better than fine. It's all a mystery to me.
Posted by: jasper at
May 11, 2007 4:38 PM [link]
In November 2003, I put together a website called Trader Wizard for a book that I was trying to organize in my mind. It was pretty much a brain dump.
Then I decided not to follow through, but instead start on Easter weekend 2004 a free blog instead. By the end of that year, my stats were starting to reflect the fact that what I was writing, many people were reading. Then I ran into computer problems, and decided to drop Trader Wizard and start from scratch under my own name.
Then in June 2006, after being asked by the editors of Wall Street Journal to write something for them, I had two of the top three book publishers contact with to ask if I would publish a book. I said that would interest me, and started back on my Trader Wizard notes.
But I'm a firm believer in finding long-term personal relationships, and one of my associates (one of the top securities regulators in the world at one time) introduced me to someone who had co-founded the Bermuda stock Exchange and ran it for six years along with a capital markets publishing company he and his wife ran, called ISI Publishing. After a single meeting, I determined that these were good people who I wanted to work with for a long time, so I asked them (his wife is publisher) to take on my book project.
"The Lessons of the Trader Wizard" will come out probably in late September. It would have come earlier in the year, but I got sick for several months. I haven't looked at the rough manuscript I turned in on Jan 4, and now I need to do that and get the thing finished. But it's a big project, and now I have a series of other projects under way.
The publisher thinks the job is done, but I want this book to be special, so I have several weeks work to do. I do agree, it is almost done. There is a book jacket I signd off on, and the rest. The publisher is now lining up promotion and all that.
So if you want to go to my TraderWizard.com site, just remember that nothing's been changed from what I uploaded in November 2003, long before you even heard of the TraderWizard.
By the way, I conceived the name in the 1990's for a project I had in mind that I took to Standard & Poor's data group (before they sold it). TW was going to be a computer-based electronic robot on their pages that would answer subscriber queries on trading. S&P liked the concept, and sent us to a group that would develop the user technology while I created the content. Then I got involved in other projects that I decided I really wanted to do more, so the domain name sat there. My associate at the time put my notes onto the site, which you see today, and I later used the site to publish the first year TW blog.
I think that Fall, it was Michael Panzner ("Financial Armageddon") who was the first person who suggested TW would have more credibility as BC, and I agreed. So when I started fresh in mid-December 2004, I came out as BC. Fortunately or unfortunately as the case may be, the publishers loved the name TW, and so I have been brushing up the TW website plan.
TW will be radically changed in the next month. It will become a commercial sales tool for my book and for various premium research reports, one of which we hope to publish sometime in the second half of June.
Here's the link:
Posted by: Bill Cara at
May 11, 2007 4:42 PM [link]
BQI
A developing oil sands stock for the microcap consideration, I am taking a starter position here and may take on more if it clears 3.5. It looks like they want to produce oil in 08/09.
Check the URL and the website for DD
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070507/to451.html?.v=18
Posted by: BRC at
May 11, 2007 4:44 PM [link]
To David who does the Worden RSI calculations:
I would like to find out what your personal criteria formula is for calculating daily, weekly, and monthly RSI's.
Could you either list them on Bill's site or if not, please email me at: bdtobias@yahoo.com
Thank you!!!
Posted by: bdtobias at
May 11, 2007 4:45 PM [link]
Don Luskin on the markets:
".....The other big threat to growth is the Fed. Ever since the Fed paused its rate-hiking cycle last August, I've been warning that eventually it would start hiking rates again. I still believe that, and, in fact, I've been surprised that it hasn't happened already.
But the fact is, it hasn't happened, and at this point it looks like it won't for quite a while. Until it does happen, rates are still low in absolute terms, and relative to historic standards. There's no way to argue that a 5.25% interest rate from the Fed is high enough to restrain growth.
Eventually the Fed is going to raise rates. Inflation's not going away, and the economy isn't going to be weak enough to force the Fed to lower rates. When the rate hikes start, we'll be at a point of real risk — because if history is any guide, once it gets started the Fed isn't very good at stopping.
And eventually the Democrats in Congress are going to get organized and try to actually accomplish some of the antigrowth initiatives they campaigned on.
So there are no shortage of things to worry about out there. It's just that they are, indeed, "out there" — not here and not now. And until they're here and now, they aren't real. What's real is a gusher of earnings and jobs that is going to sustain this economy and this stock market.
There will come a time to sell, and it could come yet this year. I'm a bull, but a cautious one. For now, though, the game is the same as it's been for the last four years of this bull market: Buy the dips."
Fred,
If you are looking for low commission prices on trades and it is a cash or margin account you have at BMO then also check out Interactive brokers.
Posted by: trader at
May 11, 2007 9:07 PM [link]
Thanks to everyone for your suggestions regarding discount brokers. I'll look into them all this weekend.
Fred
Posted by: lovesaves at
May 11, 2007 10:53 PM [link]
Seamus thanks for the tip, Axel's fees arnt too bad I believe 1.3%.
I established a position today in FXY at $ 83.25, suppose I just cant get enough of Bill, Mish Shedlock, Calculated Risk, Russ Winter, and
Marc Faber :)
Posted by: Rick45 at
May 12, 2007 12:25 AM [link]
Jumble "Is Cramer becoming frustrated by his poor relative performance?
I find very interesting his latest "dirty dozen" strategy of targeting stocks with relatively limited float and (reportedly) heavy institutional interest (WHR, BDK, ATI, BGC, HON, ASD, JCI, MDR, FWLT, CAT, TEX, DE). Take a look at their recent moves and today's actions. Sure, you can point to sharp price moves, but watch out for heavy institutional distribution to his bilndly-following retail audience. Interesting the cyclical concentration of his picks. So much for diversification."
I wouldnt know I dont watch the show however since these stocks have had nice runs someone has to take them off the big-boyz hands' at the top.
Interesting your use of the word "cyclical" noting Bill's comments on energy above. My feeling thats its different this time via the concept of "decoupling" is bullshit; if retail/housing sales continue to trend down crude will BREAK key support at $ 60.77 THIS SUMMER short of storm spikes. This recent run in the RBOB is a last gasp; now in a perfect world P.M.'s would decouple but how low USD would have to get may correlate with this.
Posted by: Rick45 at
May 12, 2007 12:39 AM [link]
From the latest Doug Noland -
" I’ll conclude this query into the issue of unchecked finance and the concentration of financial power with a few closing thoughts. In practice, the “Infinite Multiplier Effect” is restrained by the natural limitations in the demand for borrowed funds. In the case of traditional lending, finance will expand at a rate to satisfy the demand for funds for real economic endeavors (i.e. business capital investment). And despite some rather outrageous lending excesses, even the expansion of mortgage finance was limited to a degree by the capacity of households to borrow.
Today is different. The prevailing demand for borrowing emanates from securities markets activities – specifically for M&A and leveraged securities speculation. In both cases, “the sky’s the limit.” As such, we’re in a period of extraordinary capacity for finance to mount a powerful burst of expansion. The Credit infrastructure has developed incredible capabilities over the past few years; Wall Street and the global leveraged speculating community have become enormously powerful; foreign central bank “recycling” of dollar liquidity has evolved into one of history’s most remarkable (and dangerous) Monetary Processes; and Wall Street has begun to position for the next easing cycle with tens of trillions of securities available for such an endeavor.
The monetary backdrop has clearly become extremely unstable – I’ll refer to it as an “Unchecked Liquidity Dislocation.” The question then becomes, can monetary affairs settle down to a less unwieldy posture? Or are we instead now firmly locked in a Minsky Ponzi “deviation amplifying system” - that at some unpredictable time and in some unpredictable fashion comes to a predictably devastating conclusion? "
Posted by: Bishx at
May 12, 2007 1:00 AM [link]
trading KRY for $.15 scalps is foolish; proverbial running in front of a steamroller collecting quarters. i rarely would comment on someone else's trading, but i'd suggest you rethink that approach. buying one day, holding overnight and then scalping a $.15 profit the next day is, i believe, a very flawed trading plan, particularly for a stock like KRY. there are opps everyday with much less rich for $.15/sh profit - holding overnight on a scalp is asking for a big haircut
Asia - China-led chill . .
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/IE12Cb04.html
Posted by: jk484![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
May 11, 2007 8:26 AM [link]