Bill Cara: Bill Cara’s Saturday Report, 05/26/2007 11:48 AM

« Cara’s Daily Commentary, Fri., May 25, 2007, 9:25 AM | Main | Week in Review #21 (2007-05-26) »

May 26, 2007

Bill Cara’s Saturday Report, 05/26/2007 11:48 AM

Each Saturday morning, I shall publish the “Saturday Report”, for your discussion, including the Week In Review (WIR) Tables, the end-of-the-week tables and charts (used in the Daily Commentary), the Impulse system report and the Friday Value Line Dow Report(s). Henceforth, my "Week In Review" will be published on Sunday at 12:00pm ET (Noon).

When I am set up for it, I shall also publish a new feature called “Cara Roundtable” on Saturday. This will be a review of a moderated survey done during the week. We shall try to learn more about our Community, your interests in capital markets and how we can share resources to help one another.

Next week, probably mid-week, some changes will be implemented in the site. I decided to go slow and to phase in these changes and get feedback each time.

WIR Tables for Week #21 (2007-05-26)

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

IYZ 33.88 0.25 0.74% 1.44% 2.76% 6.07% 14.23% 9.22% 19.63% 36.39%

XLI 38.50 0.23 0.60% 0.65% 0.81% 2.28% 9.28% 5.19% 8.54% 13.40%

IYH 72.25 0.10 0.14% 0.15% 0.85% 0.81% 8.71% 5.60% 10.05% 19.60%

XLE 67.77 1.02 1.53% -0.09% 3.93% 5.68% 19.78% 15.55% 17.78% 23.40%

XLB 40.23 0.46 1.16% -0.12% 1.06% 2.26% 16.24% 4.77% 14.68% 25.64%

XLY 39.63 0.10 0.25% -0.23% 0.84% 0.51% 2.88% -0.55% 4.43% 18.09%

XLP 27.54 0.19 0.69% -0.54% 1.25% 0.15% 4.79% 2.68% 7.03% 14.32%

XLF 37.56 0.04 0.11% -0.69% -0.50% 0.70% 1.73% 0.70% 4.10% 14.97%

SMH 36.26 0.19 0.53% -2.40% -4.53% -2.19% 8.01% 1.97% 2.52% 6.65%

XLU 41.10 0.02 0.05% -4.04% -2.61% -1.70% 11.62% 6.28% 13.54% 31.35%

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

CEO 93.16 1.59 1.74% 1.49% 1.59% 7.34% -1.18% 12.44% 6.04% 20.07%

IMO 46.47 0.60 1.31% 1.33% 15.02% 19.52% 30.31% 27.88% 26.59% -57.60%

PBR 107.78 1.76 1.66% 0.36% 5.46% 5.25% 8.15% 12.73% 19.09% 25.33%

XOM 83.51 1.23 1.49% 0.30% 2.81% 3.92% 12.68% 11.02% 15.38% 35.74%

TOT 75.97 1.02 1.36% -0.11% 1.48% 2.19% 7.05% 9.20% 7.68% 15.77%

STO 27.82 0.15 0.54% -0.39% 5.22% -1.38% 8.29% 4.78% 4.90% -4.76%

SU 87.13 1.75 2.05% -0.63% 4.59% 6.33% 17.89% 18.35% 13.67% 8.49%

ECA 61.28 1.16 1.93% -1.90% 3.60% 14.54% 35.16% 26.90% 19.38% 27.32%

CVX 81.13 1.16 1.45% -2.08% 1.36% 3.91% 14.32% 14.16% 17.85% 36.38%

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

RTP 292.05 13.56 4.87% 4.91% 0.40% 18.53% 43.09% 26.77% 38.64% 32.14%

PKX 115.17 2.37 2.10% 3.76% -0.20% 8.08% 45.00% 16.50% 49.57% 76.51%

AA 40.90 0.69 1.72% 2.94% 7.55% 13.64% 39.45% 16.59% 33.18% 29.19%

TS 47.78 1.51 3.26% 2.89% 5.75% 1.34% -1.53% 0.02% 3.71% 30.51%

BHP 50.95 1.35 2.72% -0.29% -2.66% 4.15% 31.08% 10.04% 25.06% 18.24%

MT 58.69 1.27 2.21% -1.01% 4.21% 9.33% 43.85% 12.56% 40.78% 81.65%

NUE 65.73 1.82 2.85% -1.37% -0.18% 1.22% 20.61% 2.05% 11.73% 20.69%

GGB 21.72 0.81 3.87% -1.99% 4.78% 7.79% 32.28% 17.41% 39.59% 61.25%

TCK 40.07 1.38 3.57% -3.14% -6.03% -47.59% -42.14% -45.91% -47.41% 0.00%

RIO 43.38 1.25 2.97% -3.79% -2.60% 6.56% 50.52% 18.23% 59.78% 82.65%

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

ABB 21.02 0.19 0.91% 2.99% 5.68% 3.60% 17.96% 17.76% 30.48% 67.09%

BA 98.25 0.83 0.85% 1.68% 5.19% 4.50% 10.18% 8.83% 9.45% 18.39%

GE 37.56 0.18 0.48% 1.62% 1.60% 1.95% -1.08% 7.01% 5.24% 9.12%

CAT 75.71 0.28 0.37% 1.26% 1.11% 2.64% 23.79% 12.56% 20.42% 2.37%

ERJ 47.49 1.21 2.61% 0.64% 0.34% 0.79% 16.45% 3.69% 11.87% 43.34%

MMM 87.35 0.20 0.23% 0.52% 2.10% 7.11% 11.62% 14.62% 7.64% 4.91%

FDX 105.96 0.04 0.04% -0.55% -2.12% -1.18% -3.47% -12.41% -9.71% -1.63%

UTX 68.62 0.36 0.53% -0.82% 0.34% 1.37% 9.25% 1.58% 3.99% 9.99%

HON 56.93 0.94 1.68% -3.02% -1.49% 3.72% 26.23% 19.38% 33.14% 40.43%

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

NKE 54.28 -0.19 -0.35% 1.93% 2.36% 0.30% 11.16% 0.48% 12.22% 36.28%

CCL 49.95 0.38 0.77% 1.57% 2.38% 2.61% -1.96% 4.91% -1.11% 24.53%

DIS 36.03 0.19 0.53% 0.03% -0.11% 3.00% 5.35% 2.53% 9.48% 19.50%

EBAY 32.65 -0.06 -0.18% -0.15% -4.53% -4.45% 8.22% -3.94% -2.13% -3.63%

JCP 79.26 0.39 0.49% -0.53% 3.62% -3.34% 1.54% -5.70% -1.92% 29.89%

BC 34.02 -0.11 -0.32% -0.70% 1.70% 2.66% 6.58% -0.18% 3.88% -6.56%

SBUX 28.61 0.30 1.06% -1.17% -3.38% -9.17% -18.84% -12.61% -21.21% -19.27%

TM 120.00 -0.32 -0.27% -1.50% 0.05% -1.64% -11.31% -11.44% 1.17% 10.12%

WHR 111.22 0.04 0.04% -2.29% -1.05% 4.52% 31.37% 19.14% 29.70% 25.87%

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

WFMI 40.43 -0.06 -0.15% 1.74% -1.32% -14.90% -11.10% -19.89% -17.78% -40.63%

BUD 50.98 -0.30 -0.59% 1.66% 1.68% 1.90% 3.58% 1.86% 10.16% 8.91%

MO 70.78 0.31 0.44% 1.19% 3.19% 1.70% 9.03% 10.46% 12.62% 30.78%

DEO 84.90 -0.26 -0.31% -0.09% 0.98% 0.83% 6.75% 3.46% 10.76% 28.02%

WMT 46.91 0.26 0.56% -0.76% -1.82% -2.96% -1.35% -5.37% -2.07% -5.14%

PG 62.96 0.09 0.14% -0.82% 2.12% -0.03% -2.45% -2.87% -0.90% 13.93%

PEP 68.82 0.37 0.54% -0.95% 3.02% 3.82% 9.73% 6.57% 10.39% 13.64%

KO 51.89 0.65 1.27% -1.41% -1.52% -0.33% 6.81% 9.80% 10.59% 16.95%

WAG 45.09 0.50 1.12% -1.42% 2.15% 0.16% -2.13% -0.51% 10.90% 9.18%

ABV 65.65 0.68 1.05% -2.63% 7.80% 11.48% 33.71% 25.45% 40.82% 55.94%

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

UNH 54.41 0.20 0.37% 1.76% 1.53% 2.37% 3.50% 2.60% 16.48% 28.26%

AMGN 54.55 -0.02 -0.04% 0.94% -3.11% -13.78% -20.25% -17.64% -24.79% -19.97%

DNA 77.54 -0.10 -0.13% 0.34% -3.24% -4.65% -5.21% -9.30% -3.78% -3.07%

PFE 27.53 0.25 0.92% 0.33% 1.81% 3.46% 4.72% 7.46% 2.38% 15.43%

BMET 43.70 0.08 0.18% 0.25% 0.64% 1.25% 5.38% 3.09% 15.64% 25.00%

AET 52.42 0.82 1.59% 0.25% 4.86% 11.39% 22.25% 13.81% 26.44% 36.62%

JNJ 63.19 -0.29 -0.46% -0.36% 1.48% -1.53% -4.83% -1.50% -4.04% 4.53%

NVS 56.12 0.04 0.07% -1.04% -2.20% -4.93% -3.47% -4.31% -4.46% -0.65%

BMY 30.05 0.02 0.07% -1.31% -0.63% 3.02% 13.91% 11.09% 22.80% 22.10%

GSK 52.43 -0.16 -0.30% -9.15% -7.71% -9.51% -2.56% -7.89% 1.51% -5.82%

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

LEH 72.76 -0.52 -0.71% 0.50% -3.44% -4.43% -7.47% -7.95% -4.99% 11.20%

C 55.12 0.19 0.35% 0.22% 3.78% 3.28% -0.24% 2.51% 9.56% 12.33%

HBC 92.88 0.36 0.39% -0.24% -2.46% 0.00% -0.10% 4.65% -1.17% 6.15%

UBS 64.31 1.10 1.74% -0.76% 1.45% -1.61% 4.76% 4.18% 5.00% 13.82%

MS 84.26 -0.20 -0.24% -0.93% -1.05% -0.88% 3.23% 4.06% 6.73% 40.97%

CS 74.66 0.08 0.11% -1.49% -2.84% -5.00% 6.49% 0.07% 13.33% 0.00%

JPM 51.64 0.05 0.10% -1.71% -0.98% -1.73% 7.43% 1.20% 9.24% 20.51%

GS 225.53 -0.15 -0.07% -2.09% -0.87% 0.56% 12.36% 4.17% 11.87% 53.09%

MER 91.85 -0.76 -0.82% -2.46% -1.78% 1.93% -1.88% 3.16% -0.80% 28.50%

DB 151.13 -3.05 -1.98% -4.28% -5.30% -2.08% 11.67% 8.03% 15.28% 30.14%

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

SAP 47.45 0.36 0.76% 2.51% 1.56% -2.39% -10.81% 3.42% -9.62% -11.66%

ADSK 44.97 0.23 0.51% 1.51% 3.93% 7.10% 10.87% 5.89% 8.15% 23.27%

ORCL 19.24 0.49 2.61% -0.05% 1.37% 0.73% 9.88% 14.39% -1.84% 36.74%

INFY 49.90 1.34 2.76% -1.03% -4.13% -5.44% -10.61% -13.50% -6.83% 37.88%

INTC 22.16 0.19 0.86% -2.38% -0.54% 1.33% 8.89% 6.74% 2.64% 22.77%

CSCO 25.52 0.12 0.47% -2.63% -4.17% -5.59% -8.00% -7.23% -4.92% 24.37%

ADBE 42.38 0.39 0.93% -2.78% 1.63% -1.19% 6.16% 4.31% 2.02% 45.44%

CTSH 75.71 0.77 1.03% -3.96% -6.13% -16.45% -2.64% -19.96% -5.07% 23.51%

QCOM 43.35 -0.24 -0.55% -4.11% -3.37% -2.87% 15.72% -0.02% 15.35% -5.88%

SNDK 41.97 -0.03 -0.07% -4.92% -6.46% -4.64% 0.60% 8.73% -12.16% -28.67%

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Month 4.71 4.74 4.66 4.80

6 Month 4.74 4.76 4.74 4.80

2 Year 4.83 4.82 4.80 4.61

3 Year 4.78 4.76 4.72 4.53

5 Year 4.77 4.75 4.71 4.53

10 Year 4.84 4.82 4.78 4.63

30 Year 4.98 4.97 4.94 4.81

Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 3.66 3.70 3.62 3.65

2yr AAA 3.61 3.61 3.56 3.59

2yr A 3.65 3.67 3.64 3.62

5yr AAA 3.69 3.66 3.62 3.58

5yr AA 3.67 3.69 3.63 3.61

5yr A 3.74 3.76 3.71 3.71

10yr AAA 3.83 3.83 3.75 3.72

10yr AA 3.80 3.81 3.72 3.71

10yr A 4.10 4.11 4.03 4.00

20yr AAA 4.38 4.36 4.32 4.13

20yr AA 4.29 4.29 4.22 4.43

20yr A 4.27 4.37 4.53 4.24

Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 5.19 5.19 5.15 4.97

2yr A 5.28 5.28 5.25 5.03

5yr AAA 5.29 5.27 5.20 5.04

5yr AA 5.32 5.31 5.27 5.11

5yr A 5.41 5.38 5.33 5.11

10yr AAA 5.79 5.86 5.55 5.38

10yr AA 5.58 5.54 5.54 5.35

10yr A 5.71 5.65 5.62 5.42

20yr AAA 5.97 5.96 5.93 5.84

20yr AA 5.92 5.90 5.87 5.80

20yr A 6.11 6.10 6.07 5.98

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

FNM 64.56 -0.19 -0.29% 2.18% 3.15% 9.42% 7.85% 8.52% 12.49% 27.82%

SHY 80.14 0.05 0.06% 0.12% 0.01% -0.26% 0.12% -0.05% -0.15% 0.35%

TIP 99.78 0.14 0.14% 0.11% -0.72% -1.01% 0.55% -0.06% -0.57% -0.06%

AGG 99.36 -0.05 -0.05% -0.09% -0.55% -0.76% -0.55% -0.93% -1.36% 1.39%

IEF 81.92 -0.09 -0.11% -0.32% -1.09% -1.19% -0.92% -1.00% -1.87% 1.54%

TLT 86.37 -0.20 -0.23% -0.64% -2.06% -1.66% -3.03% -2.78% -4.69% 2.49%

FRE 66.65 0.27 0.41% -1.39% -0.10% 1.76% -1.83% 2.54% -0.94% 8.80%

CFC 39.48 -0.52 -1.30% -4.29% -3.89% 2.55% -6.25% 0.38% -3.09% 4.39%

Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

NEM 39.20 -0.25 -0.63% 0.03% -4.60% -7.87% -11.31% -16.33% -13.94% -24.73%

LIHRY 40.75 0.34 0.84% 0.02% -10.54% -7.20% 23.37% 0.00% 0.00% 2.77%

GFI 17.23 -0.02 -0.12% -0.58% -1.20% -6.05% -6.00% -6.71% -1.15% -18.30%

KGC 12.87 0.09 0.70% -1.61% -4.67% -5.71% 12.70% -8.33% 8.61% 17.32%

BVN 32.50 0.58 1.82% -1.78% -6.07% -1.07% 17.71% 11.11% 16.91% 22.87%

MDG 24.70 -0.01 -0.04% -2.45% -3.48% -4.52% -6.05% -18.62% -17.56% -19.94%

AEM 33.98 0.08 0.24% -3.03% -5.22% -5.95% -12.69% -17.22% -17.84% 2.38%

ABX 28.90 -0.10 -0.34% -3.12% -3.89% 1.08% -3.12% -6.95% -2.86% -6.56%

GG 22.86 0.37 1.65% -3.79% -5.73% -8.05% -16.39% -19.65% -18.91% -26.00%

AUY 13.05 0.30 2.35% -5.09% -6.72% -9.12% 5.84% -13.35% 12.11% 36.22%

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

IFN 43.02 1.65 3.99% 1.32% 4.16% 4.95% -5.12% 4.16% -13.32% -12.31%

EWJ 14.31 -0.02 -0.14% 0.42% -1.58% -0.56% 0.77% -4.85% 8.33% 1.49%

EWC 29.80 0.35 1.19% 0.37% 3.36% 6.89% 20.65% 13.26% 15.19% 24.63%

IEV 116.67 1.07 0.93% -0.49% 0.84% 1.14% 10.48% 7.30% 13.02% 28.63%

QQQQ 46.45 0.29 0.63% -0.56% -0.71% -0.26% 7.42% 2.63% 4.03% 18.01%

SPY 151.68 0.54 0.36% -0.62% 0.54% 1.44% 7.29% 4.39% 8.07% 18.75%

EWU 25.33 0.18 0.72% -0.63% 0.52% 1.89% 7.56% 5.37% 9.04% 21.78%

EWZ 57.84 1.72 3.06% -0.99% 3.88% 8.13% 23.85% 17.99% 30.86% 53.42%

TRF 67.25 1.69 2.58% -1.15% -1.68% -5.41% -24.05% -9.91% -13.12% -9.12%

FXI 112.08 2.10 1.91% -2.40% -2.54% 3.69% -3.71% 6.34% 16.58% 48.94%

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

AA 40.90 0.69 1.72% 2.94% 7.55% 13.64% 39.45% 16.59% 33.18% 29.19%

HPQ 45.62 0.22 0.48% 2.33% 0.84% 7.87% 9.61% 11.76% 15.32% 41.37%

BA 98.25 0.83 0.85% 1.68% 5.19% 4.50% 10.18% 8.83% 9.45% 18.39%

GE 37.56 0.18 0.48% 1.62% 1.60% 1.95% -1.08% 7.01% 5.24% 9.12%

CAT 75.71 0.28 0.37% 1.26% 1.11% 2.64% 23.79% 12.56% 20.42% 2.37%

MO 70.78 0.31 0.44% 1.19% 3.19% 1.70% 9.03% 10.46% 12.62% 30.78%

MRK 53.70 -0.05 -0.09% 0.85% 3.27% 3.55% 21.99% 25.06% 21.55% 56.15%

MMM 87.35 0.20 0.23% 0.52% 2.10% 7.11% 11.62% 14.62% 7.64% 4.91%

PFE 27.53 0.25 0.92% 0.33% 1.81% 3.46% 4.72% 7.46% 2.38% 15.43%

XOM 83.51 1.23 1.49% 0.30% 2.81% 3.92% 12.68% 11.02% 15.38% 35.74%

C 55.12 0.19 0.35% 0.22% 3.78% 3.28% -0.24% 2.51% 9.56% 12.33%

DIS 36.03 0.19 0.53% 0.03% -0.11% 3.00% 5.35% 2.53% 9.48% 19.50%

VZ 42.50 -0.04 -0.09% -0.21% 2.78% 12.17% 12.37% 10.65% 22.30% 36.44%

JNJ 63.19 -0.29 -0.46% -0.36% 1.48% -1.53% -4.83% -1.50% -4.04% 4.53%

AIG 71.95 0.41 0.57% -0.37% -0.87% 2.58% -0.28% 4.59% 1.05% 18.13%

AXP 63.63 -0.39 -0.61% -0.52% 1.05% 2.40% 5.42% 9.67% 6.23% 17.64%

WMT 46.91 0.26 0.56% -0.76% -1.82% -2.96% -1.35% -5.37% -2.07% -5.14%

PG 62.96 0.09 0.14% -0.82% 2.12% -0.03% -2.45% -2.87% -0.90% 13.93%

UTX 68.62 0.36 0.53% -0.82% 0.34% 1.37% 9.25% 1.58% 3.99% 9.99%

T 40.76 0.34 0.84% -0.83% 2.96% 5.49% 16.62% 10.16% 24.76% 58.60%

MSFT 30.48 0.31 1.03% -1.14% -1.33% 1.20% 2.08% 5.47% 2.42% 28.39%

HD 38.38 -0.57 -1.46% -1.29% -1.24% -0.23% -6.55% -6.30% 1.75% -0.05%

KO 51.89 0.65 1.27% -1.41% -1.52% -0.33% 6.81% 9.80% 10.59% 16.95%

JPM 51.64 0.05 0.10% -1.71% -0.98% -1.73% 7.43% 1.20% 9.24% 20.51%

DD 51.46 0.12 0.23% -1.76% 2.06% 3.56% 4.93% -2.89% 6.26% 21.65%

INTC 22.16 0.19 0.86% -2.38% -0.54% 1.33% 8.89% 6.74% 2.64% 22.77%

IBM 105.18 1.23 1.18% -2.60% -0.75% 3.96% 8.13% 7.62% 12.67% 31.25%

MCD 50.90 -0.06 -0.12% -2.73% 0.49% 3.98% 16.02% 10.63% 21.54% 53.04%

HON 56.93 0.94 1.68% -3.02% -1.49% 3.72% 26.23% 19.38% 33.14% 40.43%

GM 30.49 0.02 0.07% -3.05% 3.50% -3.39% 3.53% -11.00% -2.37% 9.28%

Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]

(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 25)

American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]

(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 25)

Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]

(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 25)

JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]

(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 25)

Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]

(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 25)

International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar for next week.

Econoday Weekly International Report.

International Equity Markets Review

Here’s the latest session data for the Asia-Paciic stock exchanges.

Here’s the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

Here’s the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Charts of US stock ratings changes

Wall Street upgrades

Wall Street recent downgrades

There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes. That website updates in the morning.

Industry “Impulse” Review

This 10-week table that depicts stock price inertia/momentum of 31 industries has been created by “Jock”, based on the “Impulse System” that is described in Dr Alexander Elder's book Come into My Trading Room.

That book, and Dr Elder’s Entries & Exits, sits on my bookshelf.

This weekly "impulse" looks at inertia through the EMA, and at momentum through MACD (the rate of change in EMA's).

With the “Impulse System”, Industries are colored GREEN when both weekly MACD-H and 26-week EMA have ticked up; they are RED when both MACD-H and 26-week EMA have ticked down.

“Impulse”-related questions will be answered by Jock in the running Commentary when he is available to do so. Some weeks, I presume, this table will not be available to us.

Bonds & Yields Review

Here is the T-Bond chart.

Forex Review

Here is the $USD chart at the close of the prior session.

Commodities Review

Here is the $CRB Index chart.

Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY July-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review

Here is the Jun-07 Gold futures chart.

Here is the Recent Spot Gold chart.

Here is the Recent Spot Silver chart.

Here is the Recent Spot Platinum chart.

Here is the Recent Spot Palladium chart.

Precious Metals Stocks Review

Here are the Daily and Weekly Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Daily and Weekly data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

ABX NEM GG GFI KGC AU HMY AUY BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

This data is supplied every day by the folks at KNOBIAS, Inc.

Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 gainers

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers

Here are the previous session’s Cara 100 losers

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)

Here are the Cara 100 stocks that hit 52-week intra-day highs or lows in the previous session

The Cara Global 100 RSI-7 Studies

Here, from “Chris”, are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from “Chris”:

RSI-7 > 70 (11)

RSI-7 < 30 (8)

Using data from “Chris” – which he takes from BillCara2.com, which is not smoothed like David’s data, which he takes from Worden, the Cara 100 Company stocks that are below 30 on the Daily RSI-7 moved from 6 to 17 to 8 on Friday versus the move from 17 to 5 to 11 for charts with Daily RSI-7 above 70.

Here, from “David” (when available), are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with the highest and lowest Daily RSI-7 sorted by (i) daily and (ii) monthly values, for the previous session.

Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with highest RSI-7 with Monthly-Weekly-Daily all either >70 or <30

Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading with RSI-7 Daily all >70 or all <30

Have a great day. Please feel free to comment below.

As you may have noticed, I have set up this Saturday Report without comment. That's so an Admin Asst can do the job, and also set up the WIR templates for Sunday. That way I can write the WIR notes in maybe three hours early on Sunday morning and have the rest of Sunday and all day Saturday off to go fishing and diving.

Hopefully, I'll be able to do the upload from places like Staniel Cay, Georgetown, Harbour Island and Treasure Cay. Then I just have to worry about the shape I'm in on Sunday morning. (LOL)

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 26, 2007 11:48:47 AM | Category: Saturday Report

Discourse

China’s Pace, America’s Angst / Roach

As Condos Rise in Florida, Investors Try to Flee
"Flippers in Trouble"

please click on my initials "jmf" to visit the blog

Posted by: jmf at May 26, 2007 12:12 PM [link]

Jock,
Perhaps you could explain how you use the impulse table in investing/trading decisions of equities or sector ETF's

Bill and all,
I would benefit from case studies presented in option stratagies used to accumulate and distribute holdings with explanations of income earnings from option stratagies, and the rational decision making in choosing time horizens and strike price of option choices. It may seem basic to some but I can not seem to get comfortable employing these tactics. Hopefully I am not thee only one

All,
What are peoples thoughts on TCK. RSI 7 daily and weekly @ 20. Monthly @ 40.

Posted by: jamgar1 at May 26, 2007 12:39 PM [link]

Thank goodness the trading week is over. I took a 3% haircut and more importantly increased my risk exposure to small cap gold and silver stocks slightly beyond my responsible threshold. Next week I hope to bring my risk exposure back to normal.
Friends who do not share my enthusiasm for trading have been imploring me to buy a condominium townhouse before I lose all of my money. I currently rent an apartment. They make a compelling argument that had I purchased real estate in White Rock B.C. four years ago with 25% down I would have made a net 350% return on a $60,000 downpayment by now after my increased costs over renting.
We all know the state of the housing market in the U.S. and I am worried that B.C. is also at the peak of a real estate bubble. My friends argue that new immigrants will continue to drive our real estate market up forever. So, I pose a question to the billcara.com community, What do you see happening in the Canadian residential real estate market over the next few years? As an investment would you put $120,000 today in a downpayment on a townhouse in White Rock, B.C. or put it in the stock market? All investment related comments are greatly appreciated. I am already aware of the "quality of life" arguments. Thanks.

Fred

Posted by: Fred at May 26, 2007 12:49 PM [link]

jamgar1, I do what I can do in the time I can allocate to the site. Hopefully somebody can help you with your query on options trading.

Alas, I don't even have time to brew my own coffee anymore, so I turned to a single cup brew system.
http://www.kitchenkapers.com/braun-tassimo-hot-beverage-system.html

I like mostly the expresso with cappuccino creamer. At night, I've been known to add Bailey's. :-)

Posted by: Bill Cara at May 26, 2007 12:55 PM [link]

Fred,

There are (mostly hot) BC and Alberta real estate markets that do not reflect the national picture. I still think Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and points East are reasonably priced.

Today, I think a young person in Canada's East would be best off getting into a house and using the monthly mortgage payment as a savings tool. I wouldn't want to see young people today lose precious assets in the stock market.

Now, if the stock markets were to crash, that's a different ball game. At that point, I would recommend that young people buy the stocks of Cara Global 100 companies or ETF's, where they can use the market as a personal portfolio managment learning tool as well as a vehicle for growing wealth.

Posted by: Bill Cara at May 26, 2007 1:06 PM [link]

Thanks Bill. That is sage advice. My grandmother used to say that "your best investments are education, your family and your home". My grandfather added "keep good friends, see the world and enjoy life".

Fred

Posted by: Fred at May 26, 2007 1:32 PM [link]

TCK- RSI still falling.
Other indicators: macd - turning down from overbought area. acc-dist - still positive trend. stoc - turned down from overbought.

Posted by: score22 at May 26, 2007 1:51 PM [link]

Fred,

I took an economics class many years ago taught by a relatively young and very sharp Indian professor. He digressed near the end of one class to dispense some practical advice which I never forgot, the first of which was to buy a house as soon as possible after graduation: it will (1) serve as a tax shelter, (2) force you to save, and (3) [potentially] leverage your net worth to a level not possible otherwise.

I agree with kaimu that the stock market is in many ways a casino, especially at these levels, and more so given your exposure to small cap gold and silver stocks. Obviously, I have nothing against making bets in that casino, but it would not be my first priority.

Best wishes whatever you decide.

Posted by: 2nd_ave at May 26, 2007 3:10 PM [link]

Fred,

Multi-Family home! Live in a unit and rent out to tenants. Have them pay most of your mortgage while you build equity in the home. Try to get the ratio of down payment:mortgage payment to be as profitable against the rental income as possible.

Posted by: NYUgrad at May 26, 2007 3:14 PM [link]

...btw, no one really knows until after the fact whether there was a real estate "bubble," or when it will peak. There were stories in 2003 about people in California trying to time the peak by selling and moving into a rental, with the intention of repurchasing after the correction. It sounded like a good idea at the time, but at least in the Bay Area, they have to be hurting now. The market went up another 50% between 1Q03 and 1Q06. Prices are beginning to level off now, but they're not falling. I don't know if they'll ever drop. The market may simply rise at a lower rate for the next 15 years.

Posted by: 2nd_ave at May 26, 2007 3:22 PM [link]

Fred,
Here's my personal experience.

My wife and I bought the house I'm sitting in now in 1983 for $67,500 and 9 1/2% interest. It's 2100 Sq Ft on five acres on an island in the South Puget sound.

We stayed awake at night at first wondering what we were doing buying a house at over 9% interest.

I doubled up the principal payments and paid it off in less than 15 years and it's the best thing I ever did. The funds that I would be paying to rent or make house payments now can be saved/invested and no one can take it away from you once it's paid off provided you carry the proper insurance and pay your taxes.

I think the notion of forced savings is how it really works best, at least it did for me.

While I know the value may be shrinking, the house is now worth 5 or 6 times the purchase price which is a great return by anyone's book.

My point, even if you buy in the worst of times as I did, years later you won't regret it and you might even be able to leverage it against more property and produce future income or gains.

Posted by: Craig at May 26, 2007 5:37 PM [link]

BTW, when interest rates get to 9.5% it is interesting to see what banks, sellers, agents and the government will do to sell homes.

To qualify for my home loan in 1983 I had to sign my name. That's it. Everyone think credit was too easy recently? No tax returns, no income verification, no anything. Just put your mark here....an X will do. It's all been done before.

Posted by: Craig at May 26, 2007 5:41 PM [link]

My mortgage payment is 2100.00 on a 550K loan. Good for another three years @ 4 5/8%. I don't plan on owning long term. I am just in it for the equity. I bought it in 2002 for 650K and with the pool and landscaping, etc., I am in it for around 800K. Conservatively it is worth 1.2 mil. stk

Posted by: stktrader at May 26, 2007 5:54 PM [link]

I am about 2/3 of the way through the Richard Bookstaber book "A Demon of our Own Design" and can't recommend it highly enough. If you want an inside look at HB&B, and irrevocable proof of all the things Bill keeps talking about with respect to market manipulation, etc., you will find it here. Get your thinking cap on for this one - sure to make you cogitate endlessly ;)

Posted by: GTT at May 26, 2007 5:56 PM [link]

Re the MT Blog publishing software I use, does anybody know how I can color code the main body text that I write versus the reader comments?

Either I color code my text to clearly differentiate from what others write or I will have to find a way to put the comments somewhere else in the blog or possibly eliminate them altogether.

Your letters to me in the past week, re the blog, are quite illuminating. I am really impressed by the depth of thought and time many of you have taken to help make this a better community. Thank you so much.

Posted by: Bill Cara at May 26, 2007 5:57 PM [link]

Fred. Put your money in the real estate. Presently I have 60% in Gold, 30% in real estate and 10% in Stock. For me it works very well. The gold keeps it shine forever, the real estate will always appreciate over time and the stock market is my play money that keeps me occupied and provides a wonderful life style. If you have a mortgage increase the payments religously every year.

Posted by: Horatio at May 26, 2007 6:51 PM [link]

I'm trying to figure out this real estate thing.

Craig, if you bought in 1983 and your property value has sextupled, according to my calculator, that's a compounded gain of 7.75% over 24 years. In my calculation I've ignored the fact that you paid 9.5% on your mortgage and that you've had to pay insurance and taxes for the past 24 years. If I count all that in, your compounded return is a lot lower.

I live in a New York City rental. It might have been smart for me to buy 15 years ago when we had a severe pullback in real estate, but I wasn't that smart. On the other hand, I have calculated that my return would have been no more than about 8% compounded, but really less if I count in (and one must count in) the cost of a mortgage, insurance, taxes, etc., etc.

I think there is a great deal to be said for owning, but ROI doesn't seem to be at the top of the list. One thing you can definitely say for renting, however: when something breaks down, it's someone else's responsibility.

In short, if it's forced savings one wants, maybe real estate is the way to go. But if it's building a nest egg, why not invest?

BUT I must be missing something here. Feel free to chime in and tell me what it is.

G/S

PS: I do think that one smart home-owning, wealth-building approach is the purchase of a two or three family home if you don't mind the headaches. (Some do.) Let your tenants pay all of (or at least most of) your mortgage.

PPS: I can also see buying and selling real estate as a way to build wealth, provided one is savvy and knowledgeable. I have a friend who is doing that. She's a licensed realtor married to a builder and between the two of them, they bring a lot of information and knowledge to the table -- and money to their bank account

Posted by: GemmaStar at May 26, 2007 7:23 PM [link]

Wow! I'm overwhelmed by the responses. Thank you.

Fred

Posted by: Fred at May 26, 2007 7:31 PM [link]

Fred - before you take a bunch of random advice with respect to making such a major investment such as putting 120k down on a home, I IMPLORE you to read the Robert Shiller paper "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices". You should be able to download it here:

http://www.bepress.com/ev/

To quote:
"The magnitude of the current boom is much greater than past booms, and so the way the boom ends, may be more unpredictable
and dramatic."

Do not listen to anyone who tells you prices MUST keep going up or MUST nosedive. Educate yourself, and if you make such a big investment, hedge it somehow, for example with the Case-Shiller housing derivatives on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

However for those who argue that we don't know whether or not there is a housing bubble or when it will burst, I can say without question that San Diego, where I live, was a massive bubble that is currently deflating. Prices are 20% south of where they were 2 yrs ago, in some areas more. If I had bought the type of place I was considering buying then before deciding against it, my tax and rent savings would have paled in comparison to the amount of money I would have lost. I would likely be 150k+ in the hole already, with no end to the decline in sight around here, admittedly perhaps the most bubblicious real estate market in the US!

Posted by: GTT at May 26, 2007 7:54 PM [link]

I just realized something reeeeeally stupid on my part: When one buys a home, one puts down anywhere from 5 to 20% of the value of the home.

Craig's actual return (assuming he put down 20%) is more like 15% -- and is higher if he put down less. That's definitely better than a market return and it goes a long way to cover the cost of taxes and insurance.

Now I realize that I really should have bought 15 years ago!

Talk about a DUH! experience....

Now, ya'll, don't go out and tell everyone how stupid I was, o.k.?

Posted by: GemmaStar at May 26, 2007 8:01 PM [link]

For
What Sam Stovall's Guide to Sector Investing would say about the economy

Click On 'Wolf Stone'

Posted by: WolfStone at May 26, 2007 8:47 PM [link]

Wolfie,

Sorry, man. I really don't like to do this but I had to cut the link. Too many readers have been complaining to me that you are not playing fair. If you have something to say, please say it here.

I see your modus operandi got you banned, killed or K:Lined at blitzed.org. What's that all about?

Posted by: Bill Cara at May 26, 2007 9:07 PM [link]

Fred,

I'm kinda late to this thread, but my advice about buying a home is first and foremost to be sure you buy something you can afford. That means no exotic loans that presuppose the price of housing is going to turn around soon. It's not. So buy with the expectation that the market value of your home may not go up for several years, and indeed might go down.

I decided to buy a house when a) I had saved up enough $$ for a 20% down payment, and b) I found a house and a mortgage that would, on a month-to-month basis, cost me about the same as it would to rent. That included taxes and insurance.

That was ten years ago, when housing prices in California were still reasonable. Today, the rent v. own equation is severely out of whack. I believe the market is just in its early stages of reverting back to the mean. Today, for example, I read in my local paper that national home builders are offering discounts of 20-30% on homes in inventory. That looks like quite a bargain, until you realize just how high prices had gotten in the past few years.

In any case, good luck.

Posted by: number2son at May 26, 2007 9:17 PM [link]

jmf,

I like you man, but you're probably next on my hit list. I helped you get around a negative spam rating so you could post here, but you appear to be doing much the same as Wolfie. When readers complain, I have to take action, so judge yourself accordingly.

To all, I will soon be setting up an editorial board of about 15 readers who, with about 5 others who are project leaders here, will be able to monitor the comments (including mine), and will forward mail to my new admin asst who will take the necessary action. That will start sometime in June.

Unfortunately I no longer have the time to read all my mail or the comments here. I try, but you can imagine what it must be like to filter through 700 mails/comments a day and still do other things.

The regulars and others will get through because I'm about to set up a separate mail system to handle mail that my admin asst filters for me. Scary; this is almost becoming corporate-like.

Anyway, I hope you all appreciate that I spend time every day thinking how I can improve this website and blog. That was the reason I got the survey software. Now that I lined up a true pro to manage it, I think you'll see some changes here on a regular basis.

The bottom line is that I need time and space to be able to do my thing, and having to look after the Wolfie's and jmf's is too much. You agree with that because you tell me so in your letters. Thanks.

Posted by: Bill Cara at May 26, 2007 9:27 PM [link]

All this talk ...and remorse about real estate.
In 1972 I bought a co-op at 19 West 77th Street, that's right , across the street from the Museum of Natural History, NYC. (Cost $63,000.).
At the time I was running around in Gucci loafers and Cardin (sp) suits and had nothing on my mind more significant than the next babe I was going to meet. I was in the film business as the resident counsel for Cannon Group, our new film company.
That coop apartment today is worth about $2. million in funny money.
After we took the company public, I left and bought a ranch in Crested Butte, Colorado (Cement Creek Ranch, check it out on the internet) for $145,000. That's right, an "inholding" in the Gunnison Naional Forest with a hot spring that fed our funky swimming pool, horses, hippy heaven for only $145,000.
I ended up owning that property for 21 years as my brother became the county judge, etc. Now he is a budhist monk, go figure.
I left in 1980 and went sailing.
Before that I had bought a winter shack on Caye Caulker off the coast of Belize. Windward side of the island: $1500. US.
So I still left and went sailing only to end up on Mt Dessert Island in Maine where I just happened to land a job as the marketing guy for a well respected boat builder.
Bought a house in Manset for $145,000., lost it in a divorce, but last summer saw it in a magazine advertised for $900,000.
Have I made $ in real estate? Hell yes, but it has never been my goal. I have just happened into these places that end up becoming popular spots.
Got to follow your heart.

Posted by: Rigdon at May 26, 2007 9:31 PM [link]

Dear Fred,

Real estate is probably one of the best asset classes to be in going forward, but you state it as an either real estate or the stock market proposition, as though you were gonna throw the whole buck-twenty down on Crystallex or something nutty like that. The answer is to do neither thing at the moment. The forces that kept Canada prospering while the U.S. suffered these past years won't last, and the bubble prices that you now have will indeed come down. In fact, it is so late already in the popping cycle that what you propose is tantamount to having a helicopter fly you out into the atlantic so that you can join the passengers of the Titanic. You want to trade places with the owners of real estate now no more than you would buy a stock that's about to go down.
My advice: It is virtuous to wait for the right moment to strike.
Chris

Posted by: shark_attack at May 26, 2007 9:37 PM [link]

Rig,

We'll have to get that boat of yours down to Bahamas. The clubhouse should be full when you're around.

Posted by: Bill Cara at May 26, 2007 9:38 PM [link]

Thanks, Bill, I'm looking forward to 'talking boats' with you and anyone else interested, I am also keen on talking to you about the Bahamas and smart places to have a few bucks.

Posted by: Rigdon at May 26, 2007 9:59 PM [link]

I really like the idea of the 'Cara Roundtable".
Given the amount of traffic and readers, and breadth of readers i.e. I don't believe that all of us are directly employed in the financial sector. I know I'm not, although I did last about 10 weeks last summer before my internship came to a premature end. But the idea of sharing resources, specialties and knowledge with a diverse group of like-minded goal-oriented individuals sounds A-OK to me.
On WGI.TO, the resilience of that stock to drop (compared to many of its peers I am following) from these levels is quite amazing. Although still small relative to most, my largest position in this sector is with WGI.TO and I only need a 'few more shares' to complete my desired level.
It's nice that they posted those pictures of the fleet arriving, especially for someone like me who has not yet had the opportunity to visit any mining sites. I was not able to find the CEO interview on BNN that day somebody mentioned it would be on, does anyone know if it was aired?

Happy trading.

Posted by: Eric at May 26, 2007 10:38 PM [link]

Hello Bill and all who have been offended by my posting,
I am very sorry for any inconvenience i have caused anybody. My intentions behind posting were only to increase people's awareness about certain topics and insights covered by various commentators. I only wanted to highlight news i found relevant and posted over here because i thought you(Bill) and your readers might find something of value in my blog. I will stop posting from now on and thoroughly apologize once again.
P.S. Bill i have never heard of blitzed.org and i do not know anything about being banned, killed or K:Lined. 'Wolf Stone' is a psedo name i have taken on and only began using it once i started my blog(late 2006). I have never visited blitzed.org or know what it is. I hope that clears up a few things !!
Wolf Stone

Posted by: WolfStone at May 26, 2007 10:49 PM [link]

RE: Real Estate (non-hot market version)
In 1992, I bought a 5 bedroom, 2 bath house in a good school district in suburban Buffalo for $99,500. We refinanced 7-8 years later and the house was reassessed........... at $99,500. When you look at what has happened to parts of the city and inner ring suburbs, I'm not totally unhappy that at least it's holding its value. And while I have a non-existant ROI, I have a 100 grand basically paid off asset, which is more than I would have had if I was paying rent all those years. (As I write this, I'm really starting to get depressed!)

Moral of the story- It's hard to generalize about bubbles, since real estate is about as local as you can get.

Posted by: Klingon288 at May 26, 2007 11:12 PM [link]

Well, real estate investing, as investing, makes sense when you can buy a house on leverage(say 20% down upfront), then rent it out and attempt to let the tenant's monthly rent pay the mortgage payments, insurance, utility, taxes etc. That way, if the house appreciates at say 8% a year, it's really 40% a year on cash.
Having net worth solely tied up in your own home doesn't really make too much sense, since you're likely not going to sell your home to lock in the gains, so they're paper. It's like Penn Central going broke with what, book value of $60 per share?

Posted by: FirstConsul at May 26, 2007 11:12 PM [link]

Fred,
It would scare the hell out of me buying a house in White Rock, Vancouver, or Calgary right now. Are we in a bubble in Canada that is going to burst? I don't know. Many people feel that real estate can never go down. Over the long term that is probably correct. Over the short term, it can definitely go down. The early 80's in Alberta saw real estate tank. I know two people who saw they had negative equity and just turned their houses back to the bank and walked away. I sold a business and had to move to start my next career and saw my $130,000 acreage turn into $105,000. Quite a haircut but I was in no position to hold on to it and hopefully have the price rebound, if I wanted to reinvest where I was going to move. Then in '88 I saw an opportunity to buy land south of Calgary. On the land I purchased, the mortgage on the title for the previous owner was for $1500/acre. I paid less than 1/3 of that. So I took a beating on the acreage, but the bank and farmer who owned the land I purchased, really took a beating. That land obviously appreciated greatly since then. Point is, if you can buy and hold and not be forced to sell (to move, or overextended, or whatever), real estate is probably still an excellent LONG TERM investment. It is only shorter term that you may see your investment go backwards for a while if we do see a real estate correction.

As to your point about owning vs investing in the stock market, I've just done a little reading about how to do both. In Canada we can not deduct the interest on our mortgage. Fraser Smith (from Victoria, BC) has come up with a strategy called "The Smith Manoeuvre" http://www.smithman.net/home.html and has written a book on the subject. A blog that has quite a bit of information on this is: http://www.milliondollarjourney.com/the-smith-manoeuvre-a-wealth-strategy-part-1.htm

In a nutshell, you set up two mortgages - home equity line of credit (HELOC) and a regular mortgage. With every mortgage payment you increase the amount in your HELOC by your mortage amount and invest that money in income producing entities. At tax time you deduct the interest paid on your HELOC. You have to be comfortable with leverage as you will not be reducing the amount borrowed until the regular mortage is paid off. There are obviously a lot more details but no sense wasting everyone's time by giving more info.

I have not used the manoeuvre as I am fortunate to not have a mortgage so haven't really studied it. For people that are trying to decide whether to pay down their mortgage as fast as possible, or invest, this is maybe an option.

BUT, I have to agree with shark_attack. I'm over 50 so my point of view may be different from yours (I don't know your age). If "it" hits the fan, you may be able to buy the Cara 100 stocks and your house at bargain basement prices and really be the one laughing at your friend's expense as they purchased high dollar property and saw their values plummet, but still have enormous mortgages. The only problem of course is timing. Will you continue renting for 10 days, 10 months, or 10 years before "it" hits the fan.

jamgar1
I too have had problems getting my head around options. I've not wanted to go to cash even in this very volatile market because in a melt up, a lot of money could be made. However, I'm not prepared to do it "naked". I want some insurance so if the markets take a dramatic drop, I have some protection. I've used futures but just this month have bitten the bullet and bought puts. I purchased "Options as a Strategic Investment" by Larry McMillan and it helped me immensely. I've just ordered "McMillan on Options 2nd edition". I have no experience in choosing time horizons and strike prices. I'm still very naive on that.

I would be very interested if other readers could recommend books or other sources for information.

Posted by: bobj at May 26, 2007 11:37 PM [link]

"Then I just have to worry about the shape I'm in on Sunday morning. (LOL) "

Bill-I second that, my man. May the beers always be cold and flowing, may life bring you good health and happiness.
I also like the 1st picture you provided in your blog....these mkts are not for the folks with weak stomach.
Very interesting interview in Barron's this week-interview with hedge fund ngr Ray Dalio who provides some macro-economic thoughts.

Bill-keep up the great work, and here's to hoping you stay in good health and stay happy. Your blog is a wealth of information, as are the folks who comment here.
A lurker who reads religiously-Ray

Posted by: rayg at May 27, 2007 12:09 AM [link]

As the Wolf who came to dinner, wolfie, I wouldn't be too offended when the host says it's time to wipe the grin. At least 99 pct of others here know what you were up to, so don't play dumb.

When others, many of whom have blogs like this one and yours, invite themselves into my home, they don't pass out invites to theirs. They let the host do that as I have with Leisa and Ron Sen and others. So show some class. I can be a nice guy and I can be something different-- like direct, when its called for.

And wolfie, you must have ticked off somebody because my comments filter says your IP address doesn't give you a ticket to get past "Go". And your IP address may not know your nickname, but the IP number is the one clearly stamped on your passport. So be good to it. And people like me will be good to you.

This is a good community. When people treat it with respect, they are shown respect in return.

Trust me, receiving good letters about you is something I'd prefer. But that's up to you.

Posted by: Bill Cara at May 27, 2007 12:19 AM [link]

rayg,

About those photos. There may have been some method in my madness. The one I will probably use was not shown. It's one my wife said, "Definitely not!"

But, like I just tried to tell Wolfie, this is my blog and I'll do whatever makes me happy.

You can infer from that statement that I have chosen a photo where I'm frowning. Then, when you come to visit, I can say, "OK, work's over, let's party!"

Posted by: Bill Cara at May 27, 2007 12:30 AM [link]

jamgar1 -

First, the "impulse" chart is great for reading the internal dynamics of the market. I like to count the "net green" industries (i.e. greens - reds)

Over 5 weeks, the "net green" count has fallen from 30 industries (out of 31) to 8 - !!! Quite a dramatic deterioration! Scan down the week ending April 20th. A sea of green! ONLY tobacco was hesitating (not falling). And now, lots of neutral readings, and not much green! Will we soon see "reds" start to overwhelm "greens"?

What a contrast with CNBC touting of every new record in the Dow. The chart gives me a visceral sense of market internal health which numbers and even Bill's ETF tables don't give me. That's the main reason I started sharing this with Bill.

2nd, the chart tells me to short Real Estate, which is "red" for the 2nd week. This means that prices for real estate companies (of various kinds) are now below their 26 week moving average, and that price momentum is accelerating towards the downside. (Remember, Bill doesn't advocate shorting, given insiders'information advantage. Personally, I do feel comforting shorting broad ETF's like IYR.)

If you are the type of trader who likes to "drill down" you can check the "impulse" reading on the real-estate sub-industries, and finally upon the constituent companies.

You can then combine other chart-reading techniques with "impulse" changes on individual stocks to pinpoint entries and exits. Software to "drill down" is available from Worden Brothers.

3rd, Alex Elder uses "impulse readings" on individual stocks (not related to their industry "impulse" readings) as a major input to his stock trading. He says he has found that the "impulse system" is best used as negative check against wrong trading decisions.

He finds candidate stocks by other criteria, and then imposes upon himself the following "impulse system" rules for "entries" into trades:

-- stocks with "green" daily and weekly "impulse" readings may ONLY be bought, never shorted.

-- stocks with "red" daily and weekly "impulse" readings may ONLY be shorted, never bought.

-- stocks with neutral daily and weekly "impulse" readings may be EITHER bought or sold.

Alex uses other criteria for determining "exits". His books explain this thoroughly.

At the end of the day, Alex Elder's message -- like Bill's -- is that your aim is, over time, to develop your own trading style, which fits your personality, risk tolerance, and financial circumstances.

While I find Bill's RSI-based approach to Cara 100's brilliant for its powerful simplicity, the Cara 100's don't go on sale that often! I like having multiple strategies. Now, I'm working on using monthly/weekly "impulse" readings to trade ETF's longer-term in my IRA and my kids'IRA's.

I hope this meandering answer is helpful to you and others.

Jock

Posted by: Jock at May 27, 2007 12:38 AM [link]

Jock,

Not meandering at all. that's a tutorial. Thank you.

Sometime this year i will have Cara 100's for (i) Global (ii) USA (iii) Americas (iv) Europe/UK (v) Asia-Pacific (vi) Emerging Economies and (vii) Micro-cap. Since the Global 100 will be included in one of the other groups, that is a total of 600 companies to monitor. Now, that's going to be cool.

If I don't set up my own Metal Man Fund, I'll consider setting up a Cara 100 for metals and minerals, which would make it 700 companies to monitor.

As the community grows, and the volunteers come forward, I'll keep expanding this service. I'm also working on a Cara Price Motion Oscillator for pinpointing prices on a theoretical Market Cycle Model, too.

These projects just take time and hard work. But the love and commitment is there.

Posted by: Bill Cara at May 27, 2007 12:57 AM [link]

Jock,
Very helpful explanation. I will check out elder's books.
Bobj,
Perhaps I just haven't been able to put forth the time required to feel competent with options. I will look into McMillan's book.

Thank you both for your kind response
Jim

Posted by: jamgar1 at May 27, 2007 1:00 AM [link]

Bill,
When do you sleep?
Jim

Posted by: jamgar1 at May 27, 2007 1:01 AM [link]

you were very lenient on those "innocents" who were using your blog to underhandedly promote their own spaces today. Personally i wouldn't give them a single chance. Just boot them and ban them the first time it happens. Period.

If you don't make a strong stand now, you'll be plagued with this problem as your site becomes ever more popular. just mho, sir.

PS: did you ever nail VAL.v!?!

Posted by: coripaco at May 27, 2007 1:35 AM [link]

Bill Lundin's bid for RNO is perceived by many as lowball; do you ever trade juniors on pure speculation per M/A activity with all other variables remaining the same? TIA

Posted by: Rick45 at May 27, 2007 4:35 AM [link]

My two cents on the blog promotion going on in these pages. Once it is allowed for awhile, others jump in. It is not surprising to me to see it become abusive. I used to be Lead Hall Monitor in these pages, but I haven't been here enough lately to be offended by what is apparently happening. However, once I see the "Hey, lookee here!" variety, I am right there with Bill. Stomp on it like the cockroach it is.

Re real estate. I know a little bit about this. ;)
From a GENERAL PERSPECTIVE it is too early in this down cycle to get the absolutely best prices. My work still shows 2008 as the bottom if economic conditions do not deteriorate. Nonetheless, there are pockets where the downturn has not hit and values are holding up. Will they? I don't know. It's very possible. There are a lot of VERY BIG sharks circling these waters and they are JUST STARTING to nibble. Does real estate make sense as an investment? Yes. The ownership of income producing real estate is a great diversifier in your overall portfolio of assets. I am not talking about SF homes, duplexes or tri-plexes.

Re IYR. Technical driven bounce off the MA then retreat right back through it. That was CLASSIC action. Utes have rolled over here as well. Are they anticipating rates moving or were they just wildly overbought? Hmmmm.

Re Goldie and the Miners. I am still waiting.

Re equities. We are doing the firewalk here.

Good luck and good trading all.

Posted by: MarkM at May 27, 2007 7:04 AM [link]

Jock-

Very nice contribution to the Community. Thanks.

Leisa- I am a Chock Full O Nuts drinker. Imagine that. Also, no pods.

Gemma- I have a few moments in the next few days if you wish (dare).

Posted by: MarkM at May 27, 2007 7:39 AM [link]

working under the radar / illegal immigrants as a percentage of total workers

this is a another reason why the official employment data is not showing the real impact of the slowdown in the economy.....

Jeffrey S. Passel, a former Census Bureau demographer who works at the Pew Hispanic Center, estimates that more than 7 million of the 12 million illegal immigrants are employed.

They account for nearly 5 percent of the nation’s civilian labor force, with higher shares in some occupations: 29 percent of roofers, 24 percent of agricultural workers and 25 percent of construction laborers.

here is the detailed graph ( wort a look) !

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/05/27/washington/27immigGRAPHIC.gif

Posted by: jmf at May 27, 2007 9:27 AM [link]

working under the radar / illegal immigrants as a percentage of total workers

this is a another reason why the official employment data is not showing the real impact of the slowdown in the economy.....

Jeffrey S. Passel, a former Census Bureau demographer who works at the Pew Hispanic Center, estimates that more than 7 million of the 12 million illegal immigrants are employed.

here is the detailed graph ( wort a look) !

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/05/27/washington/27immigGRAPHIC.gif

Posted by: jmf at May 27, 2007 9:28 AM [link]

hello from germany,

sorry to hear that i have offended readers.

i wanted to make clear that i´ve had the permission from bill. but it is clear that when readers complain that i will stop doing this.

from now on i will try to post (as shown above) details without mentioning my blog

Posted by: jmf at May 27, 2007 9:38 AM [link]

MarkM - I dare to wish!

Posted by: GemmaStar at May 27, 2007 9:43 AM [link]

MarkM - on real estate and cheap everyday coffee- is right again (as usual). when the RE bottom comes, you will see plenty of sharks out and about. And you will not have a chance to compete. One of my agents (they work as a team) owned close to 100 houses in the early to mid 90s (northern NJ). He had a crew fix them up and flip them. He knew the area so well, he would buy from the foreclosure lists just by seeing the address. He made close to $7 million. 3 wives later, he says he's ready to do it again in 2008. This time for himself.

Jock - thanks so much for the "Impluse" contibution. It really is an improvement on the ETF table.

JMF and Wolfie - CONTRIBUTE! don't just provide links. I'll admit I don't have much to contribute in the way of trading yet (still trying to learn), so I have just been taking from the people who post here. But I want to be part of this site going forward because I think it's going to be bigger than even Bill expects. I try to drop in a link or two that may be good reading, BUT I have no blog or obvious hidden agenda. I felt like I should give back, so I joined TeamMicro (#52). It's the least I can do (literally).

JMF - i like your links btw, some are very entertaining - and you are in my Google Reader. But there is not much in the way of added value, which is why few people comment. Most people do not need for you to highlight the important parts of Hussman's and Gross's weekly messages. Sometimes the posts remind me of that Simpsons episode where Homer has the German backpackers invade his house, and the one starts saying "Reeson Numba ThuhtyFawh of vhat's vrong wit Amereeka - no univuhsal health care." And I think some people are just tired of seeing you as the first post here, at WallStreetExaminer, and every other high traffic blog. But I still read them:)

Posted by: rob d at May 27, 2007 10:44 AM [link]

Bill,
I did not like the smiling pictures either. It should be a picture that reflects no position either way. Non discript. Like a picture of you sitting at the table drinking a cup of coffee with no attitude. I picture of you on your porch late afternoon with a view of the lake in the background. Just sitting; thinking. The picture should take place where you do your work; your home. That is who you are. Greg

Posted by: stktrader at May 27, 2007 11:01 AM [link]

Gemma,
Glad to see you saw the actual leverage!
Lots of people miss that point, you aren't alone.

However, I agree with all who warn of buying too soon. Still a ton of inventory to work off.
It will be at least 8.5 mos according to numbers some distribute.

We know how those numbers tend to get fudged bigtime.

Posted by: Craig at May 27, 2007 11:48 AM [link]

jmf,

Yes, I did say that I helped you get around a spam filter issue because I liked your previous contributions, and I hope you stay.

You know that when even say a half dozen of the readers complain to me about something, there are many hundreds, and probably more, who are thinking the same thing.

In addition to the fun I have, I am doing this blog for the readers. Soon I will have a readership-based editorial board, and that will likely solve some of these distracting issues.

And for me too; I tend to cross the line of politics too much, and I hear about it. Since I have no axe to grind, I have to be listening to what you are telling me.

Posted by: Bill Cara at May 27, 2007 11:59 AM [link]

hi rob,

you mean this clip...? :-)

http://youtube.com/watch?v=L27G_HM24o0

Posted by: jmf at May 27, 2007 12:07 PM [link]

Re: editorial board for comments

First, this is BC's blog and he can handle this however he wishes.

Second: But I'm still of the mind that objectionable comments can be handled on an exception basis (deleted, etc) rather than subjecting ALL comments to a filter. It seems to me that we've been pretty good at self policing since the issue came up some months ago.

Posted by: Leisa at May 27, 2007 12:23 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

You guys have not mentioned once why buying real estate has been a "no brainer" over the past 50 years and under current "political" conditions will continue to be a "no brainer". Essentially it is the same motto I repeat here quite often ...

PRICES DON'T GO UP THE DOLLAR'S VALUE GOES DOWN!

The reason for the dollar's continuing multi-decade decline is purely "political" since we are now in the grips of BIG GOVERNMENT and its BIG SPENDING! QUADRILLION debt levels are next!

Certain "geographical" areas are always in a higher demand due to "desirability". A "view" always costs more so oceanfront will always demand a higher premium than a view of the dump! Also temperature comes into play so Southern California is always more costly than South Dakota! That's just common sense ...

I personally have more invested in real estate than any other asset, but my real estate assets are more of a hedge against a US economic collapse than merely "a place to live"! Aside from Hawaii I also own "storage facilities" that produce income without my participation. One of my storage facilites/repo companies is going to IPO later this summer in the UK. I also own farmland in Texas and Louisisana that are leased by cattle companies and oil companies and I am currently exploring selling timber(all owned debt free). Land that produces food will always be in demand and I believe more so and rather soon. Part of my reason for living here in Hawaii is a guaranteed food and water source as well as one of the best tropical climates in the World without annual hurricane seasons to fear!

Farm real estate values from 1900 to 2007 have skyrocketed like other real estate yet the cost per acre is nowhere near the cost for an acre of land in Las Vegas or San Diego.

Link: http://www.nowandfutures.com/download/farm_real_estate1900-2003landvalues.png

I believe the USA is in for a huge crisis and that is why I am invested where I am and why I live where I do. We are already in a huge crisis by any past historical standards yet the complacency level of our politicians and our citizenry is just astounding to me!! Of course like all past Empires "complacency" was a key symptom of a failing monetary and economic system. The "public", of course, is always the last to know! I have accumulated what I have now because I know that the younger generations of my family will not have the same opportunity in their lifetime! The economic deterioration is moving way much faster than average disposable incomes are rising. I do not see any changes to such conditions until the system completely collapses! Expecting a "political" change is useless as long as Reps and Dems are in power. Quite simply the "bankers" who own the US political system do not want a change!

In general the formula for success has not changed ... buy hedges against the US Dollar's declining value, which real estate is one and gold is another.

Anyone who insists that "politics" has nothing to do with investments is half way to the nut house! Politics has "everything" to do with your future and not much else matters! You are at this blog because of "politics" whether you see it or not!

Posted by: kaimu at May 27, 2007 12:27 PM [link]

hi bill,

no problem.

i will stop providing links.

hi rob,

i hope i´m not so annoying like the germans in the excellent "sipmson" clip :-)

Posted by: jmf at May 27, 2007 12:37 PM [link]

MarkM--regarding interest rates.....

Given that the bond market has had a muddled view of interest rates since last year, I'm not sure that I trust it now. But the bond market IS talking to be sure.

IYR has been a fascinating study. There's a bit of a conundrum in it (to my overtaxed brain anyway). Specifically, they are sensitive to interest rates (like the utilities) but they are also sensitive to economic conditions--so if the rates drop, I'm really not sure how to "weigh" that dynamic against the prospect of (1) lower retail sales (as some rents are based on retail sales) and (2) commercial weakness (current rents, prospective builds) that could lead to higher vacancy rates. I still remember the fire sale in the early 1990's as well as 2001 on rents!

I'm not so much looking for an answer (hey but if any has one, by all means....)as much as expressing the conundrum.

The second conundrum is the price of oil. Let's suspend 'peak oil' for a moment. If there are recessionary fears then oil traders would likely drop the price BUT if rates are cut to "help" the economy then that will imperil the USD and if that drops oil will go up.

Chock full of Nuts--really terrific. I wonder if they want to hire me as their spokesperson. We could make the comments section a free-for-all, and then Bill could just rename it "Chock-Full of Nuts"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Leisa at May 27, 2007 12:43 PM [link]

Thanks to all who commented on my gold/interest rate question from last week. I continue to learn something new on this blog each day.

Posted by: mrmockbird at May 27, 2007 12:49 PM [link]

Dear Kaimu,

Your above post is right-on, and I don't disagree with a word of it. However, we're now mixing the apples (farm land and other commercial properties) to the oranges (residential property). It's my hunch that going forward much of the former will outperorm much of the latter, due mostly to the reason you imply, namely decreasing opportunity, on average, for more Americans to generate significant income. It's the promise of technology, and it's the promise of globalization, and I merely think that when it comes to residential, ultimately and in most places, that fate rests on the shoulders of America's workers and their future in the global marketplace.

A salute to your success and to the wisdom contained in your excellent posts,

Chris

Posted by: shark_attack at May 27, 2007 12:49 PM [link]

The thread on real estate made me re-visit my situation. I have about $600K tied up in real estate. However, rather than living large in a single property I have three modest properties where I live in one ( a 3 bedroom bungalow ) and I have a net monthly income of about $1,700 from the other two properties. I have been dispensing financial advice for 25 years and one of my mantras has been to spread risk within each and every asset class invested in. Whenever greed or the need for instant gratification hits me and I deviate from this mantra - I loose, bigtime. As I get older I hope to make fewer mistakes by sticking to my plan. I also rest easy knowing that I won't have to suffer a loss when unloading some over-priced McMansion when the bubble bursts.

Posted by: TerryC at May 27, 2007 2:49 PM [link]

g/s-

Just email me directly.

Posted by: MarkM at May 28, 2007 9:41 AM [link]

May 26, 2007

Bill Cara’s Saturday Report, 05/26/2007 11:48 AM

Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

International Economics Review

International Equity Markets Review

US Equity Markets Review

Charts of US stock ratings changes

Industry “Impulse” Review

Bonds & Yields Review

Forex Review

Commodities Review

Oil Review

Gold & Precious Metals Review

Precious Metals Stocks Review

The Cara Global 100 Stockwatch

The Cara Global 100 RSI-7 Studies

Discourse

Post a comment