This week I took a shot at Canada’s politicians and journalists because of their complicity, direct or otherwise, in the securities fraud known as Stelco. Today, however, I will admit that Stelco is a case study and that Canada has a history of producing some of the world’s finest journalists.

One of them is Arthur Kent. Americans and people around the world know him as “The Scud Stud”. Today, Arthur hangs his hat at his Sky Reporter, which is a sparkling example of the best of web journalism.

Last evening, a CBC news magazine show interviewed Arthur Kent about the grim situation in Afghanistan. I hope you can spend just 10 minutes to hear a professional journalist speak his mind.

At the end of this video clip, I hope my readers understand why I personally have become 100 pct cynical of politicians in Washington and Ottawa. It is difficult to say that and also hope to be seen as a balanced and objective person. Let me just say that I am proud to sit in the Arthur Kent School of Web Journalism.

“Never” is a dangerous word, but I will never, under any circumstances, respect the decisions of the present leadership of these two countries, or Great Britain, to send our sons and daughters to their death under impossible circumstances as they are doing in Afghanistan and Iraq today. After many difficult years, hoping beyond hope, I finally say ‘Enough is Enough’.

As a capital markets trader, at the beginning of January I sat back to assess the worsening big picture. What I saw was a situation in the Middle East that had become doomed to failure and a political leadership that had lost its moral compass. I concluded that these people – Bush, Blair, Harper, Cheney, Rove, Libby, US Attorney General Gonzales, and the rest, would lie to any extent and take whatever extreme action they deemed necessary, to mislead The People in the hope we would continue to serve the vested interests of their financial supporters. Having totally and utterly failed the people they were elected to represent, they decided to turn over the mess to Goldman Sachs insiders.

What a mess they have put the world in.

As you know, it was January 12 (8:48am) that I presented a list of 20 gold and silver mining and exploration companies. At that moment, the Dow 30 index stood at 12514.98. This week, the Dow closed at an all-time record 12961.98. So, in 14 weeks, the Dow has gained all of +3.57 pct, and the dummied-down American public is led to believe that means the economy is solid, and the VIP’s in charge are doing a respectable job.

However, Bill Cara’s Dow is up +18.1 pct (4.3 times as much) to 14775 from January 12 at 8:48am to this week’s close.

You read that right. Over the same 14 weeks, my 20 gold and silver companies are up +18.1 pct on average. And that’s after a tough week of profit-taking in the precious metals stocks. Until a couple days ago, my selections were rising over five times as fast as the Dow Industrials. And, my Gold and Silver bullion, on average, are up +11.8 pct too.

So, let the Bulls have their day, but who is kidding whom? Some of us are not Dummies, you know.

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After Friday’s close on Jan. 12th, I wrote in the WIR#2-07,

$GOLD dropped -31.10 (-4.87 pct) to $606.90… gold was hammered, … but compared to oil, the precious metals were absolutely aglitter. When in trouble, you have to look for the silver lining. Hopefully, this doesn’t get worse.

The bad jokes AND the PM prices.

In any case, I think the $600 level held. (After all, the day before Friday morning’s absolute bottom I had presented my list of 20 PM stocks)

But by midway through Friday morning, it was real bad. Then I saw something shining. It happened to be Crystallex, which is gold, and Silver Wheaton, which is, of course, silver.

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That Friday (January 12) was an intermediate cycle bottom for Precious Metals.

Intelligent traders then spoke: ‘sell the broad market and buy precious metals bullion and shares’. Why? Because they, like me, had lost respect for our political and economic leadership and we no longer trusted HB&B and the central bankers.

Traders decided then and earlier they no longer want to hold USD, US Bonds or the majority of US stocks, just as they no longer want to hear the voices of this US President, US Treasury Secretary or Governor of the US Federal Reserve System.

Since then Gold is up +14.0 pct and Silver +9.6 pct for an average gain of +11.8 pct for bullion prices, which compares to the gain in the Dow, which, as spectacular as you may think the latter is, is a gain of just +3.57 pct.

That pretty much sums up the past 100 days. As usual, readers are asking me today what I think will happen to these crazy markets in the future. That’s were my crystal ball comes in.

I cannot tell you that I know how high and for how long gold and silver will soar, and the USD plunge, other than it will continue to happen. However, I can tell you what driving factor will reverse the course of financial history and the precious metal markets for a time.

As soon as the next President, a wise and unburdened President, takes power in the US in January 2009, there will be an order given to return the American soldiers home. All other country’s forces will follow. Their duty and honor has been paid and repaid. The world owes them the deepest respect.

At that moment, all of us will know that the immense cost of the war will wind down and America’s balance sheet and income statement will begin to improve, hence the USD will strengthen. This brings a whole new meaning of the word inauguration.

Traders always make strategic decisions six to nine months before events of this magnitude, based on probabilities. By my calculation, sometime around the 2Q08, there will be no holding the USD back from its new Bull. Just over a year out, then, is my outside timing for the cycle peak for gold and silver, and it could be sooner.

There may be one intermediate cycle peak before the big spike and blow-off or the present one may the final one.

I think in time the US economy is going to get worse than what I have been inferring in my blog to this point. So far, I have vacillated between a 12-month’s forward growth of GDP of about +1 pct down to a small recession of two or possibly three quarters of slightly negative growth.

But events of the last couple weeks have changed my mind.

Among my concerns:
(i) the US government and HB&B bail-out of the private mortgage and housing industry
(ii) a continous stream of debt-financed multi-billion dollar share buy-backs,
(iii) a relentless push of the stock market by HB&B to try to hold equity and debt levels in balance,
(iv) bankers in China and India tightening credit in order to stem speculation among securities traders,
(v) indications that other central banks (eg, ECB and BoJ) will soon raise rates, and
(vi) a G-7 communiqué that seemed indifferent to currency imbalances and speculative trading.

What specific driver will ultimately push a major trend reversal in capital markets, I cannot say. However, the credit bubble will definitely pop. In the following months and years, there will be failures of local governments, small and mid-sized banks, housing and mortgage companies, as well as the related service industry (some lawyers, accountants and real estate brokers included) in the US. Unemployment will rise, etc. The hundreds of thousands of returning solders (Middle East and elsewhere) will make for worse unemployment.

I now believe this will be a gradual process of economic and capital market breakdown, something like 1973 and 1974, which just happens to be the poster child for Stagflation. Only this cycle will be worse, in my opinion. Whether or not we are headed for a period to be defined as Depression is something I will leave to people like Nouriel Roubini to argue. I am, however, concerned.

Tomorrow I will try to package recommendations for a wealth protection portfolio. Yes, it will start with a weighting of about 25 pct in gold and silver bullion, coins and miner shares, but that will soon evolve, hopefully just before the speculator’s world crumbles, to a weighting of about 5 pct.

Surprisingly, perhaps, you will subsequently see me recommending a switch of those assets, as gold peaks, to the $USD because cash will become king, and the $USD will reign supreme for a couple years as America borders on depression and real estate bargains will become steals. Smart Money will flow from around the world to pick up real estate bargains during those recession (possibly depression) years.

In hard times, that’s what bankers and gnomes do of course. They buy quality assets for pennies on the dollar. That’s how the rich become richer.

This time, I hope, we will all be ready, with cash at hand, to enrich ourselves. Our day will come.

As for the immediate situation, my willingness to keep this website/blog with the ISP to whom I had moved about 75 days ago has dissipated to the point that tonight the whole site moves to a new ISP. So, if you find changes (good or bad) in the site operation tomorrow, please let me know. TIA.

And you may experience an outage, but I am hopeful you won't. [ADDENDUM: The site is now live on a faster, more reliable ISP. Reader comments, however, are not being processed. I think that will be easily fixed today.]

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: Still some catching up to do if you can believe that the push in US markets on late Thursday plus Friday is sustainable.

U.S. Equities : The broad indices in the US gained between +1.2 pct and +2.8 pct W/W. That’s a three week period of nirvana, helped by earnings increases, which in turn have been helped by financial engineering, eg, share buy-backs. Even with the dip this week in precious metals stocks, the broad market indexes are still falling well behind the gold and silver crowd.

Dow 30 : The Dow 30 average lifted +2.78 pct to 12961.98. Can you believe that after a long history of running blue chip enterprises, the market cap of HON rocketed +9.3 pct, INTC +8.3 pct, CAT +7.5 pct, JPM +7.0 pct, AXP +6.4 pct, WMT +5.0 pct, and on and on? That is in five days. This is not a sustainable rocket.

U.S. Sector ETFs: All ten US sector ETF’s were up this week, although it took a huge move (+1.8 pct) on Friday to put XLE slightly above water. That happens when, during a week where oil prices dropped, XOM rocketed +3.0 pct and CVX was up +1.9 pct. Go figure.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #10 (+0.1 pct); Lower oil prices
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #9 (+0.5 pct); Miners down; Fri. saved the week
20: Industrials (XLI): #3 (+2.1 pct); GE fell while others zoomed
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #8 (+1.7 pct); Friday saved the week again
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #7 (+1.8 pct); Helped by WMT +5.0 pct W/W
35: Healthcare (IYH): #5 (+2.0 pct); 3 huge weeks running
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #2 (+4.0 pct); Unbelievable moves in LEH, JPM, MER, GS
45: Tech (SMH chips): #1 (+5.1 pct); So-called bottom after INTC rocketed +8.3 pct
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #6 (+1.9 pct); T was up +2.7 pct, VZ +1.4 pct
55: Utilities (XLU): #4 (+2.1 pct); Rising bond market helped

Bonds: “The US Bond market lifted a lot. US Treasury Yields dropped -9 to -11 basis points W/W.

Commodities: Crude oil dipped -2.22/bbl, and so $CRB was down, closing the week at 312.05. With more money being printed to throw into the market (stocks and bonds) this week, it’s only a matter of time for USD to cycle through to commodities. This is all “hot” money now, isn’t it?

Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures dropped -2.22/bbl (+3.4 pct W/W) to 64.11 according to StockCharts. This is now within the upper end of OPEC’s 55-65 comfort zone.

Gold: The Precious Metals continue to gain. $GOLD was up +5.90 (+0.9 pct) on the week to 695.80. But the big story was $PLAT (+4.4 pct) and +PALL (+2.0 pct W/W).

Goldminers: The goldminers went the opposite way with the $XAU dropping about -2.3 pct. I guess you needed to be in Platinum stocks.

Forex: Yet again, the $USD dropped, this week by -0.6 pct and the Euro gained +0.5 pct. The $USD has fallen from 83.30 to 81.69 (-1.93 pct) in four weeks. There was a small gain on Friday.

Economic calendar for next week.

Econoday weekly report.

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Cara 100 Stockwatch

Here are the Cara 100 gainers on Friday.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers

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Here are the top Cara 100 losers for Friday.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)

Here are the 15 stocks of the Cara 100 for Friday that hit 52-week intra-day highs and lows.

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Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.

As for this week’s prices, of the ten sector ETF’s I follow here, eight were up this week, one flat and one down. The Financials (XLF) were the back markers on the track. Is it time to black flag them or do they get to go round the track a few more weeks (to help the insiders get off the last of their stock) before the Big Bear pays a long-overdue visit?

The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SMH	36.23	0.21	0.58%	5.11%	5.81%	5.47%	7.92%	8.47%	7.76%	-5.28%
XLF	37.12	0.19	0.51%	3.98%	3.80%	2.65%	0.54%	0.43%	5.69%	11.94%
XLI	36.82	0.25	0.68%	2.11%	2.76%	1.85%	4.51%	3.37%	7.47%	5.65%
XLU	41.57	0.32	0.78%	2.09%	2.14%	4.82%	12.90%	15.31%	16.74%	33.62%
IYH	71.50	0.47	0.66%	2.03%	4.18%	5.68%	7.58%	3.86%	6.75%	14.93%
IYZ	32.27	0.21	0.66%	1.89%	2.09%	3.00%	8.80%	9.09%	12.83%	27.25%
XLP	27.57	0.22	0.80%	1.77%	1.77%	3.14%	4.91%	3.61%	7.95%	17.72%
XLY	39.57	0.46	1.18%	1.72%	1.85%	2.49%	2.73%	-0.10%	8.62%	16.62%
XLB	39.08	0.40	1.03%	0.51%	1.61%	2.68%	12.92%	9.25%	19.62%	14.74%
XLE	63.10	1.14	1.84%	0.08%	2.19%	5.31%	11.52%	11.48%	15.36%	7.83%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

This week, XLE gained +1.84 pct on Friday, which was enough to close the week with a slight gain of +0.08 pct W/W, at 63.10, up a wooden nickel.

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Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XOM	79.76	2.30	2.97%	3.04%	3.29%	7.26%	7.62%	8.47%	14.68%	24.78%
CVX	78.45	1.64	2.14%	1.87%	3.76%	7.57%	10.54%	8.48%	20.17%	30.68%
TOT	73.62	1.02	1.40%	1.21%	4.04%	8.14%	3.73%	8.84%	8.63%	6.62%
STO	28.08	0.48	1.74%	-0.35%	2.97%	6.08%	9.30%	12.32%	10.68%	-14.91%
SU	81.46	1.55	1.94%	-1.03%	5.11%	12.39%	10.22%	10.39%	8.50%	-6.37%
ECA	53.47	0.19	0.36%	-1.07%	2.69%	7.95%	17.93%	14.64%	12.45%	5.88%
CEO	87.57	1.44	1.67%	-1.39%	-0.71%	5.13%	-7.11%	0.31%	5.05%	0.42%
PBR	104.08	1.11	1.08%	-1.73%	1.89%	10.06%	4.44%	10.03%	21.56%	7.43%
IMO	38.62	0.06	0.16%	-1.86%	2.33%	6.07%	8.30%	13.55%	19.23%	-65.27%

Big Oil gained again this week, but there were some losses.

Thanks to a Friday rocket (XLE +1.84 pct on the day), ExxonMobil (XOM) (+3.0 pct) and ChevronTexaco (CVX) (+1.9 pct) were up, but many of the foreign oils were down, which logic would dictate was the reasonable thing to happen when Crude Oil ($WTIC) contracts dropped -3.35 pct W/W. Only in America can Big Oil rocket up on weaker fundamentals.

Canada’s Suncor (-1.03 pct), Imperial Oil (-1.86 pct) and EnCana (-1.07 pct) all acted normally. Petro Brazil was also down -1.73 pct and CNOOC China Offshore (-1.39 pct) the same.

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) gained +0.51 pct W/W to close at 39.08. The gain of +1.03 pct on Friday helped, you might say.

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GGB	20.62	0.42	2.08%	5.47%	9.27%	15.00%	25.58%	34.33%	42.21%	-19.48%
TCK	76.07	0.08	0.11%	1.97%	5.46%	10.34%	9.85%	10.04%	5.79%	0.00%
NUE	67.69	1.06	1.59%	1.35%	1.77%	4.62%	24.20%	18.36%	25.24%	20.75%
RIO	41.76	0.68	1.66%	1.24%	5.06%	13.02%	44.90%	38.65%	74.00%	68.86%
MT	54.88	1.48	2.77%	0.96%	0.11%	5.30%	34.51%	31.39%	36.11%	44.99%
RTP	248.77	2.67	1.08%	0.71%	4.00%	11.06%	21.89%	21.20%	17.78%	14.41%
BHP	50.44	1.19	2.42%	0.06%	1.94%	7.02%	29.77%	26.07%	20.53%	12.94%
PKX	101.90	2.56	2.58%	-0.53%	-4.19%	0.79%	28.29%	24.53%	50.12%	49.09%
TS	47.87	0.56	1.18%	-1.28%	3.75%	9.84%	-1.34%	-0.42%	26.77%	10.61%
AA	34.37	0.04	0.12%	-2.14%	-0.64%	2.02%	17.18%	9.46%	25.16%	-1.15%

Gerdau (+2.1 pct) and Alcoa (-2.1 pct) showed that steel and aluminum were going in opposite directions. The gold miners were mostly soft.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, rocketed +2.11 pct to close at 36.82.

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Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HON	51.40	2.34	4.77%	9.29%	8.76%	8.03%	13.97%	13.49%	23.26%	17.27%
CAT	71.82	3.20	4.66%	7.53%	6.20%	7.94%	17.43%	20.97%	21.73%	-7.89%
UTX	67.48	0.26	0.39%	3.74%	3.93%	2.12%	7.44%	3.53%	3.78%	5.09%
ABB	18.74	0.27	1.46%	3.65%	4.69%	6.90%	5.16%	7.27%	30.68%	40.06%
BA	93.29	0.30	0.32%	2.48%	3.08%	3.00%	4.62%	5.26%	14.13%	9.11%
MMM	77.75	0.17	0.22%	1.34%	1.30%	-0.04%	-0.65%	-1.89%	-0.92%	-5.87%
ERJ	47.55	-0.28	-0.59%	1.08%	0.83%	6.14%	16.60%	15.61%	14.63%	25.63%
FDX	109.03	1.73	1.61%	1.04%	0.19%	-1.45%	-0.67%	-1.76%	-6.17%	-5.42%
GE	35.13	0.13	0.37%	-0.71%	0.31%	-1.90%	-7.48%	-4.93%	-0.96%	2.96%

A week ago GE had a good quarterly report and gained +1.0 pct W/W, but this week was in the poorhouse again (-0.7 pct).

The movers and shakers this week were Honeywell (+9.3 pct) and Caterpillar (7.53 pct). Actually, these two moved up +4.8 pct and +4.7 pct respectively on Friday. Sometimes seeing is not believing, though.

Colin Twiggs (www.incrediblecharts.com) opines that the lift in the Dow Transports, including Fedex and UPS, is confirming the Bull market.

I cannot deny my surprise that FDX and UPS have joined the rally.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) had a gain of +1.18 pct on Friday, which helped the week as XLY gained +1.72 pct W/W to close at 39.57.

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CCL	47.20	0.65	1.40%	4.31%	0.96%	-1.34%	-7.36%	-9.91%	-1.83%	-0.84%
TM	125.93	1.76	1.42%	3.63%	-0.44%	-5.17%	-6.93%	-4.84%	8.94%	10.03%
SBUX	31.66	0.88	2.86%	2.93%	0.83%	0.06%	-10.18%	-10.92%	-15.44%	-18.53%
JCP	83.19	2.42	3.00%	2.43%	-1.03%	2.14%	6.57%	0.60%	11.13%	31.59%
BC	31.29	0.91	3.00%	2.36%	-2.55%	-2.16%	-1.97%	-0.51%	-2.89%	-21.85%
WHR	90.47	0.79	0.88%	1.92%	4.87%	3.83%	6.86%	3.88%	3.19%	-0.31%
DIS	35.28	0.36	1.03%	1.61%	1.06%	-0.14%	3.16%	-0.62%	12.18%	29.04%
NKE	53.53	0.05	0.09%	-0.22%	0.09%	-1.42%	9.63%	7.12%	20.84%	29.24%
EBAY	33.52	0.33	0.99%	-3.62%	-0.56%	3.58%	11.10%	13.09%	9.79%	-8.84%

Although EBAY was down -3.6 pct this week, the bleeding in the rest of this group stopped. Carnival Cruise (+4.3 pct), Toyota Motor (+3.6 pct), and Starbucks (+3.7 pct) were up.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up 1.77 pct W/W to close at $27.57. With the flood of capital coming out of gold stocks Tuesday through Thursday, I guess other traders decided to ignore defense.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WMT	49.76	1.42	2.94%	4.96%	3.09%	3.65%	4.65%	3.00%	0.79%	7.24%
KO	52.09	0.34	0.66%	4.43%	5.19%	7.96%	7.23%	7.94%	11.42%	24.59%
WFMI	45.91	0.66	1.46%	3.54%	1.17%	4.48%	0.95%	4.44%	-29.10%	-29.51%
ABV	59.98	0.83	1.40%	3.52%	6.71%	12.11%	22.16%	19.77%	34.48%	27.10%
PEP	66.65	0.62	0.94%	3.49%	4.66%	3.96%	6.27%	2.82%	6.11%	16.32%
DEO	83.19	-0.03	-0.04%	1.19%	1.14%	5.93%	4.60%	6.22%	14.74%	26.39%
BUD	52.61	0.51	0.98%	0.90%	2.95%	3.36%	6.89%	3.52%	11.18%	23.50%
PG	63.80	0.17	0.27%	0.66%	1.27%	-0.08%	-1.15%	-3.46%	1.79%	13.40%
MO	69.55	0.15	0.22%	-0.01%	-1.70%	7.58%	7.13%	6.20%	16.32%	32.32%
WAG	45.80	-0.15	-0.33%	-0.26%	-0.95%	-3.31%	-0.59%	-0.46%	5.09%	6.96%

Wal-Mart (+5.0 pct) led the parade, but Coca-Cola (+4.4 pct) was not far behind.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

After being the number one ETF performer in my list of ten for the second consecutive week, the IYH healthcare ETF was still rolling along, up +2.03 pct to close at 71.50. That’s over +7.0 pct in three weeks.

Now we are being told that the litigation issues of Merck are inconsequential, and we ought to be recognizing the “new” Merck.

These story-tellers from HB&B can really lay it on thick. But with a Daily RSI-7 up at 88.3, it is starting to smell like horse manure. I know the Dems are having an open house with free bar, but isn’t this going overboard?

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AMGN	61.97	-0.35	-0.56%	4.98%	6.24%	2.48%	-9.40%	-16.54%	-16.13%	-9.55%
JNJ	65.12	0.18	0.28%	4.44%	5.80%	7.00%	-1.93%	-3.90%	-5.10%	11.85%
NVS	57.83	0.62	1.08%	2.59%	3.71%	1.31%	-0.53%	-1.23%	-4.60%	1.90%
GSK	59.35	0.25	0.42%	2.15%	5.53%	6.98%	10.30%	6.08%	5.60%	11.69%
DNA	82.40	0.03	0.04%	1.32%	-1.20%	-3.38%	0.73%	-7.47%	-0.91%	2.49%
BMY	28.67	0.25	0.88%	1.24%	3.06%	3.17%	8.68%	7.66%	17.07%	16.12%
PFE	26.97	-0.10	-0.37%	1.12%	4.37%	4.58%	2.59%	-0.92%	-2.57%	8.10%
AET	44.86	-0.17	-0.38%	0.54%	-0.31%	-1.69%	4.62%	7.09%	11.23%	-5.02%
BMET	43.21	-0.04	-0.09%	0.54%	1.01%	1.77%	4.20%	3.70%	23.28%	13.50%
UNH	53.20	1.15	2.21%	0.47%	-3.85%	-4.47%	1.20%	0.00%	4.93%	6.15%

Amgen (+5.0 pct) and Johnson & Johnson (+4.4 pct) are being marked up to be put out for sale, the proceeds of which will buy new homes in the Hamptons for the summer.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) didn’t just have a good week, they had an unbelievable week, going up +3.98 pct to close at 37.12, which goes to show that traders ought not to diss the “Gold”man now that he’s Treasury Secretary and his sidekick is head trader at the FOMC.

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Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
LEH	78.14	0.79	1.02%	8.20%	9.38%	6.79%	-0.62%	-6.03%	1.39%	0.66%
JPM	52.54	0.45	0.86%	7.03%	7.73%	8.40%	9.30%	7.75%	11.50%	23.33%
DB	152.20	5.21	3.54%	6.88%	10.49%	14.23%	12.46%	11.58%	23.55%	28.61%
MER	92.02	1.91	2.12%	6.65%	6.90%	8.21%	-1.70%	-4.02%	9.31%	14.98%
GS	220.00	0.71	0.32%	6.54%	5.80%	4.72%	9.61%	4.62%	21.95%	30.53%
UBS	64.53	2.34	3.76%	4.89%	6.29%	7.95%	5.11%	5.80%	3.58%	13.57%
CS	76.23	1.89	2.54%	3.69%	5.44%	3.08%	8.73%	10.43%	28.07%	0.00%
MS	82.91	0.32	0.39%	3.65%	3.25%	2.19%	1.58%	1.73%	8.52%	27.59%
C	53.42	0.33	0.62%	3.53%	3.59%	3.05%	-3.31%	-1.98%	7.03%	10.60%
HBC	93.41	0.93	1.01%	1.75%	4.16%	5.98%	0.47%	1.21%	-1.52%	7.84%

Lehman Bros (LEH), JP Morgan (JPM), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Goldman Sachs (GS) must have had significant hand-outs this week from the “T-Man” now that the rest of us have paid our taxes. These HB&B members were up an astounding +8.2 pct, +7.0 pct, +6.7 pct and +6.5 pct in a single week.

And you thought their holiday bonuses had already been paid!

I suppose when you pony up some client money to buy the failing mortgage industry you deserve to “get” yours.

Anyway, let me see that happen again this coming week and I’ll be on my soapbox screaming $1,000 gold before the summer.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

This week SMH gained +5.11 pct to close at 36.23 thereby taking its 52-week loss down to just -5.28 pct in a single swing of the bat.

That Inteller is quite the closing pitcher.

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Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
INTC	22.16	0.35	1.60%	8.31%	13.18%	15.66%	8.89%	6.44%	3.79%	13.93%
SAP	50.39	1.21	2.46%	4.96%	7.86%	8.88%	-5.28%	2.75%	1.82%	-9.71%
QCOM	43.44	0.08	0.18%	2.09%	0.32%	0.21%	15.96%	11.76%	14.56%	-16.20%
ORCL	19.00	0.24	1.28%	1.99%	1.77%	2.76%	8.51%	10.02%	0.11%	34.28%
ADBE	42.14	-0.25	-0.59%	1.20%	-1.10%	-1.70%	5.56%	9.71%	10.14%	11.84%
CSCO	26.99	0.31	1.16%	1.16%	3.57%	2.35%	-2.70%	1.09%	9.80%	28.34%
ADSK	39.65	0.04	0.10%	1.04%	0.25%	1.80%	-2.24%	-6.11%	13.03%	-7.64%
CTSH	88.21	1.74	2.01%	0.95%	1.67%	-5.14%	13.44%	8.02%	15.01%	37.98%
INFY	54.25	0.48	0.89%	-1.29%	4.67%	1.52%	-2.81%	-3.35%	7.04%	31.26%
SNDK	42.53	-0.06	-0.14%	-1.89%	-4.43%	-2.23%	1.94%	0.43%	-13.57%	-35.11%

The aforementioned Intel gained +8.3 pct W/W to close at 22.16, making it a neat two-week gain of +13.2 pct. The competition (AMD) must be really on the ropes.

German software giant SAP gained +3.1 pct the previous Friday and a further +5.0 pct. That sounds reasonable – up over +8.1 pct in six days.

Talk about keeping up to the Joneses, I mean, Ellisons.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) had a gain of +1.89 pct W/W.

Verizon gained +1.4 pct and AT&T jumped +2.7 pct.

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) just loved the improving bond market this week as they jumped +2.09 pct on the week, closing at 41.57.

The lower those bond yields go, the more appealing their stock dividends look. And with higher bond prices, their balance sheets look better too.

Now they just need customers that can pay the bills!

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Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

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Bond & Interest Rate Review

US Treasury bonds gained in price a lot this week as the yields dropped -9, -9, -10 and -11 basis points (bp) to 4.82 pct, 4.65 pct, 4.55 pct and 4.63 pct respectively on the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year paper.

Note that the spread between the 2-year and 3-month Treasuries has movd back up from -10 bp to -19 bp this week as the T-Bill yield dropped -2 bp from 4.84 pct to 4.82 this week, but the yield on the two-year dropped -11 bp, for a net loss W/W of -9 bp.

In other words, the yield curve is dipping more.

The TLT gained +1.18 pct W/W to close up at 88.15.

Everybody had been asking, ‘How low can TLT go?’ That’s usually when it doesn’t.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Interactive Daily data charts:

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US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.82	4.82	4.84	4.79
6 Month	4.81	4.81	4.85	4.77
2 Year	4.63	4.62	4.74	4.50
3 Year	4.55	4.55	4.68	4.43
5 Year	4.55	4.55	4.66	4.41
10 Year	4.65	4.65	4.74	4.52
30 Year	4.82	4.81	4.91	4.70

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.60	3.57	3.57	3.44
2yr AAA	3.61	3.60	3.59	3.51
2yr A	3.62	3.70	3.56	3.68
5yr AAA	3.56	3.58	3.61	3.54
5yr AA	3.59	3.63	3.66	3.53
5yr A	3.70	3.70	3.72	3.60
10yr AAA	3.76	3.76	3.81	3.63
10yr AA	3.75	3.75	3.81	3.59
10yr A	4.03	4.04	4.10	3.94
20yr AAA	4.14	4.14	4.20	4.15
20yr AA	4.43	4.43	4.41	4.45
20yr A	4.55	4.30	4.26	4.03

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.99	4.98	5.13	4.87
2yr A	5.05	5.05	5.18	4.91
5yr AAA	5.06	5.06	5.16	4.86
5yr AA	5.12	5.12	5.24	4.98
5yr A	5.14	5.14	5.27	5.01
10yr AAA	5.43	5.39	5.46	5.13
10yr AA	5.38	5.37	5.47	5.35
10yr A	5.52	5.52	5.59	5.43
20yr AAA	5.79	5.78	5.94	5.84
20yr AA	5.78	5.77	5.89	5.70
20yr A	5.93	5.92	6.08	5.98

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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Fannie (FNM) (+9.5 pct), Freddie (+8.7 pct) and Countrywide Financial (CFC) (+11.1 pct W/W) trapped more than a few Bears.

Yes, I don’t like shorting markets for this very reason. You never know when the HB&B traders and gnomes with deep pockets decide to pull people’s chains.

There is no way this Fannie, Freddie and Countrywide group of losers is up +10 pct on average in a single week based on operations, or changing perceptions of operations. What happened here is one of the reasons I have turned rather more bearish on the economy.

Government has decided to help their Friends in high places (ie, HB&B and gnomes) “save” the bankrupt mortgage and housing industry. The cost will now be shifted to future generations just like a 20-year home mortgage recently became a 40-year mortgage.

This is no longer a matter of sticking it to your children. Its your grandchildren who will be paying for these miscreants in Washington and their VIP patrons whose greed knows no bounds, it seems.

When they want it, tomorrow cannot be soon enough; but when they have to pay it back, why not leave the bill to our kids and their kids, as the logic goes.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

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SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

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Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CFC	37.36	-0.86	-2.25%	11.06%	10.99%	2.69%	-11.28%	-9.58%	6.14%	-0.21%
FNM	59.07	1.04	1.79%	9.51%	8.72%	4.09%	-1.32%	3.63%	0.25%	11.92%
FRE	65.21	0.39	0.60%	8.67%	8.90%	4.77%	-3.95%	0.32%	-4.69%	7.75%
TLT	88.15	-0.23	-0.26%	1.18%	0.46%	-0.97%	-1.03%	0.18%	0.69%	4.55%
TIP	100.65	0.04	0.04%	0.70%	0.08%	-0.42%	1.43%	2.28%	1.44%	0.95%
IEF	82.87	-0.09	-0.11%	0.64%	0.19%	-0.56%	0.23%	0.82%	0.90%	2.65%
AGG	100.14	-0.05	-0.05%	0.55%	0.22%	-0.36%	0.23%	0.30%	0.70%	1.93%
SHY	80.28	-0.02	-0.02%	0.26%	0.10%	-0.17%	0.30%	0.36%	0.27%	0.56%

I put a link on the side bar to www.thehousingbubbleblog.com, which seems to offer solid insights as to what really is happening across America with respect to housing and mortgages.

This cancer will spread for several years, not resolve itself in a few weeks. And its not ever going away if the taxpayer gets stuck with the bill.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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If you truly believe that the People’s White Elephants CFC, FNM and FRE are good buys here, then I applaud you for your phone link to VIPs in Washington and NYC.

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Commodities Review

The Commodities Index ($CRB) dipped this week -1.85 pct, closing at 312.05. That hit of -5.88 was largely energy related.

$CRB (312.05) is now sitting between the 50-day MA (310.22) and 200-day MA (314.44) lines.

Even a lower $USD this week didn’t help push up the $CRB.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil:

This week, $WTIC dropped -2.22/bbl (-3.35 pct W/W) to close at 64.11 according to StockCharts. I thought it was lower.

The $WTIC 50-Day Moving Average (from StockCharts) is now 61.78, while the 200-Day MA is 63.39. Hence the current price (64.11) is still technically bullish.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold:

This week, thanks to a bump (+1.09 pct) on Friday, $GOLD gained +5.90/oz (+0.86 pct W/W) to close at 695.80. That’s a bump of +38.50 in four weeks.

The 50-day MA is now at 669.17 and the more important 200-day MA is at 633.94. So $GOLD at 695.80 is very bullish.

Except for $SILVER, all the Precious Metals were on the rise this week. But, even $SILVER popped on Friday.

The money machine that pumped up the Dow by +153 points on Friday also pumped up Precious Metals. As the Dow gained +1.2 pct on the day, $GOLD, $SILVER, $PLAT and $PALL were up +1.1 pct, +1.6 pct, +2.4 pct and +2.2 pct.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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This week, $SILVER lost -0.14 (-0.96 pct) to close at 13.95. That pull-back was, in my view, just a matter of brief profit taking. The gain in the prior three weeks had really been too hot not to realize a portion of.

The 50-day MA is 13.64 and the 200-day MA at 12.67, so the current price at 13.95 is still technically strongly Bullish.

Interactive 60-minute data

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT rocketed +56.10 (+4.37 pct) W/W to 1341.20. It closed the week of March 10 at 1208.00.

The 50-Day MA for $PLAT is now 1241.82 and the 200-Day MA is 1192.41, so $PLAT is solidly Bullish.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL closed at $389.50, up 7.60 (+1.99 pct W/W).

The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages for $PALL are 357.22 and 336.37 respectively, which means palladium is technically quite bullish, and has been since early October (290.88).

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Base metals continue to be red hot. (Just a pun.)

$COPPER gained +8.50 (+2.40 pct) W/W to close at 362.10, which is a move of about +30 pct since March 10.

So where are all the Talking Heads who, just a month or so ago, were telling us with straight faces that Copper was +100 pct over-priced? I supposed they have been really cleaning up with their stocks in the S&P 500, and telling their friends at the country club.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is 301.45, and the 200-Day MA is 316.98. So, at 362.10, $COPPER is not going down like some experts were forecasting.

I think this move, like uranium, has a lot to do with producers keeping supply off the market for a while. This is enough to squeeze the shorts.

Remember, these big guys are no longer mining companies. Xstrata, for example, is a market trader. They buy management control in order to play the resource market. They hire great professional managers, but their head office people wouldn’t recognize a shaft unless they are sticking it to somebody.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BVN	33.94	0.60	1.80%	6.20%	8.54%	14.28%	22.93%	22.13%	34.42%	28.12%
LIHRY	40.75	0.34	0.84%	0.02%	-10.54%	-7.20%	23.37%	0.00%	0.00%	2.77%
NEM	44.28	0.62	1.42%	-0.74%	1.49%	1.77%	0.18%	2.41%	4.29%	-20.10%
ABX	28.86	0.18	0.63%	-1.64%	-1.60%	-0.79%	-3.25%	0.87%	-3.86%	-2.10%
AUY	14.71	0.22	1.52%	-2.32%	-0.74%	0.82%	19.30%	22.69%	58.17%	43.37%
AEM	37.42	0.62	1.68%	-2.48%	-0.21%	-2.22%	-3.85%	2.07%	14.79%	11.20%
MDG	27.05	0.18	0.67%	-3.22%	-1.02%	7.77%	2.89%	0.30%	12.52%	-10.76%
GG	25.65	0.03	0.12%	-3.35%	-0.08%	5.43%	-6.18%	0.31%	10.89%	-18.23%
KGC	14.04	0.14	1.01%	-4.55%	-1.40%	0.14%	22.94%	13.32%	14.80%	25.25%
GFI	19.02	0.32	1.71%	-4.66%	-0.83%	4.68%	3.76%	12.48%	12.15%	-20.25%

Most of the seniors and juniors were down this week. I’m not crying over a little profit-taking.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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$XAU, GDX and (TSE’s) XGD were all up down sharply this week, -2.29 pct, -2.08 pct and -3.76 pct respectively. Not to worry. These traders now have some ammunition to use.

The $XAU index lost -2.29 pct to close at 143.66. The 50d-MA (139.47) and 200d-MA (138.32) are well below the current price, which means that the PM stocks are technically very bullish, still.

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

I’d like to spend more time this week on the PM stocks, like I did last week, but I’m rushing to get this WIR finished so the ISP conversion can start. The FTP system isn’t working, so that’s also slowing me down.

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Forex Review

The $USD closed at 81.69, a loss of -0.48 (-0.59 pct) W/W.

The $USD 50-Day MA is now 83.39, and the 200-Day MA is 84.70, so the current price (81.69) is technically quite bearish.

The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week.

M3 is growing at an excessive rate in order to pay for a war and for govt deficits not matched by taxes, although the annualized rate of change has dropped a bit.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro (priced in USD) had another big increase on the week, gaining +0.62 (+0.46 pct W/W), closing at 135.98.

The $XEU 50-Day MA is 132.75, and the 200-Day MA is 129.54, so the current price (135.98) is technically very bullish.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The British Pound gained +1.75 (+0.88 pct W/W) to close at 200.33.

The $XBP 50-Day MA is 196.04, and the 200-Day MA is 191.98, so the current price (200.33) is technically quite bullish.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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The Japanese Yen had a pull back against the $USD on Friday (-0.34 pct), but on the whole week, the Yen was actually up against the USD +0.33 pct, closing at 84.20.

The 50-Day MA is 84.32, and the 200-Day MA is 84.86, so the current price (84.20) is still short-term and long-term bearish. This is a function, I think, of the Japanese Administration and central bank trying to help domestic exporters, but it could be that the carry trade will be coming to a close soon as the BoJ may be about to raise rates.

Something to consider.

Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar gained +1.14 (+1.30 pct W/W) to close at 89.09, which is five weeks of powerful moves against the USD.

The $CDW 50-Day MA is 86.18, and the 200-Day MA is 87.46, so the current price (89.09) is technically very bullish.

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International Equities Review

Most of the international markets had a winning week, but the Templeton Russia Fund gave up -1.89 pct this week despite gaining +1.98 pct on Friday.

India (IFN) gained a modest +0.29 pct despite being up Friday by +2.14 pct.

The China FXI was up +0.70 pct, thanks to a gain of +1.23 pct on Friday.

Global traders have been advised by Talking Heads that Dr. Joe of the People’s Bank of China is not to be feared. I question that one.

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Colin Twiggs continues to suggest optimism, which goes along with my opinion that the Fed and HB&B are working overtime to hold the international markets high, but I still suggest the best perspective would be that of caution.

I still believe in the motto, “Buckle Up, there is some challenges ahead.” And, I’ll take that one a step further, and say: “Sell in May and go to Bahamas in June!”

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Asia-Pacific indices (Interactive link)

European indices (Interactive link)

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Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWZ	54.03	1.01	1.90%	2.33%	6.13%	10.22%	15.70%	18.05%	31.05%	24.44%
SPY	148.62	1.39	0.94%	2.27%	3.04%	3.80%	5.13%	4.06%	8.61%	13.34%
IEV	115.10	0.91	0.80%	2.06%	3.78%	6.70%	9.00%	9.16%	15.76%	25.38%
QQQQ	45.40	0.25	0.55%	1.68%	1.89%	2.58%	5.00%	2.78%	8.10%	6.82%
EWC	27.77	0.37	1.35%	1.57%	3.77%	6.68%	12.43%	12.16%	14.19%	12.89%
EWU	25.11	0.17	0.68%	1.25%	2.95%	4.71%	6.62%	6.04%	10.23%	19.12%
EWJ	14.64	0.06	0.41%	0.90%	-0.27%	-1.61%	3.10%	3.17%	6.16%	-0.34%
FXI	110.85	1.35	1.23%	0.70%	3.60%	8.61%	-4.77%	4.23%	30.47%	36.38%
IFN	41.02	0.86	2.14%	0.29%	4.11%	0.96%	-9.53%	-8.64%	-12.59%	-26.24%
TRF	73.25	1.42	1.98%	-1.89%	0.01%	4.03%	-17.28%	-5.18%	7.09%	-9.68%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan’s EWJ (which is a USD-denominated NYSE-traded ETF) gained +0.90 pct W/W to close at 14.64.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

The EWU (UK market ETF trading in the US in USD) gained +1.25 pct to 25.11.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

EWC (priced in USD) had another big gain (+1.57 pct on the week) to close at 27.77. That’s a gain of +6.1 pct in 14 sessions. The TSX Composite hit another new all-time record this week.

I ask you, what’s getting frothy here? The banks, the Western Cdn Oilsands plays, the coffee at Tim Hortons, or the weeping Leafs, Habs and Oiler fans.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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U.S. Equities Review

All broad indexes in the US stock market gained this week. In fact the gains on Friday were typical of a very good week. The Bulls are running in Manhattan. The spigots are open in Washington.

The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 small cap indexes gained +1.38 pct and +1.16 pct respectively, while the S&P 500 and the Dow 30 gained +2.17 pct and +2.78 pct on the week.

Just for the record, on Friday, the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 small cap indexes gained +0.84 pct and +1.16 pct respectively, while the S&P 500 and the Dow 30 gained +0.93 pct and +1.19 pct on the day.

That’s the froth I see in HON, INTC, CAT, JPM, AXP and WMT, all of which were up +5 pct or more this week. For goodness knows why.

But good traders respect price trends and cycle data. It may be misinterpreted by people like me sometimes, but it doesn’t lie.

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Colin Twiggs has done his usual superb job of positioning the support and resistance levels of the US stock markets. He has opined that resistance levels have been cut through this week, and now stand as technical support.

Traders cannot argue with the facts, but the faster and higher the broad market continues, the more I believe we are going to witness a 1987-type correction, only this one won’t have just a single shoe to drop. After a bounce back (as the Bulls will buy the pull-back), I believe that unlike 1987 there will be a Bull Trap and the broad market will hit trap door number two.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HON	51.40	2.34	4.77%	9.29%	8.76%	8.03%	13.97%	13.49%	23.26%	17.27%
INTC	22.16	0.35	1.60%	8.31%	13.18%	15.66%	8.89%	6.44%	3.79%	13.93%
CAT	71.82	3.20	4.66%	7.53%	6.20%	7.94%	17.43%	20.97%	21.73%	-7.89%
JPM	52.54	0.45	0.86%	7.03%	7.73%	8.40%	9.30%	7.75%	11.50%	23.33%
AXP	61.00	2.05	3.48%	6.35%	9.01%	6.20%	1.06%	5.01%	5.10%	16.32%
WMT	49.76	1.42	2.94%	4.96%	3.09%	3.65%	4.65%	3.00%	0.79%	7.24%
JNJ	65.12	0.18	0.28%	4.44%	5.80%	7.00%	-1.93%	-3.90%	-5.10%	11.85%
KO	52.09	0.34	0.66%	4.43%	5.19%	7.96%	7.23%	7.94%	11.42%	24.59%
AIG	69.53	0.57	0.83%	3.92%	3.42%	1.94%	-3.63%	-2.58%	4.59%	9.15%
UTX	67.48	0.26	0.39%	3.74%	3.93%	2.12%	7.44%	3.53%	3.78%	5.09%
C	53.42	0.33	0.62%	3.53%	3.59%	3.05%	-3.31%	-1.98%	7.03%	10.60%
HD	39.21	0.30	0.77%	3.48%	3.13%	2.30%	-4.53%	-3.30%	8.95%	-3.92%
XOM	79.76	2.30	2.97%	3.04%	3.29%	7.26%	7.62%	8.47%	14.68%	24.78%
T	39.87	0.56	1.42%	2.65%	1.53%	1.94%	14.08%	13.69%	15.77%	57.34%
MRK	51.49	1.34	2.67%	2.55%	13.07%	16.57%	16.97%	12.92%	12.82%	47.11%
BA	93.29	0.30	0.32%	2.48%	3.08%	3.00%	4.62%	5.26%	14.13%	9.11%
DIS	35.28	0.36	1.03%	1.61%	1.06%	-0.14%	3.16%	-0.62%	12.18%	29.04%
MCD	48.36	-0.42	-0.86%	1.51%	5.64%	8.70%	10.23%	7.92%	16.61%	37.86%
MSFT	29.02	0.33	1.15%	1.43%	1.65%	2.65%	-2.81%	-6.72%	2.08%	7.36%
VZ	37.91	0.40	1.07%	1.39%	-0.24%	-0.26%	0.24%	1.77%	0.29%	16.43%
MMM	77.75	0.17	0.22%	1.34%	1.30%	-0.04%	-0.65%	-1.89%	-0.92%	-5.87%
PFE	26.97	-0.10	-0.37%	1.12%	4.37%	4.58%	2.59%	-0.92%	-2.57%	8.10%
PG	63.80	0.17	0.27%	0.66%	1.27%	-0.08%	-1.15%	-3.46%	1.79%	13.40%
HPQ	41.37	0.22	0.53%	0.46%	-1.03%	2.27%	-0.60%	-1.50%	5.05%	22.36%
MO	69.55	0.15	0.22%	-0.01%	-1.70%	7.58%	7.13%	6.20%	16.32%	32.32%
DD	49.28	0.52	1.07%	-0.06%	-0.08%	-4.03%	0.49%	-3.07%	9.58%	11.09%
IBM	94.58	0.29	0.31%	-0.37%	-2.01%	-0.64%	-2.77%	-1.65%	4.53%	15.31%
GE	35.13	0.13	0.37%	-0.71%	0.31%	-1.90%	-7.48%	-4.93%	-0.96%	2.96%
GM	31.68	0.31	0.99%	-1.06%	-0.69%	4.49%	7.57%	0.41%	-4.98%	39.93%
AA	34.37	0.04	0.12%	-2.14%	-0.64%	2.02%	17.18%	9.46%	25.16%	-1.15%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Dow 30 comments:

If you didn’t already, you might wish to review the reports from Value Line, which this week are on four companies: Alcoa (AA), DuPont (DD), Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE).

Recognizing, as I know you do, that there is a difference between a company and a stock, if I were forced to pick a favorite company, it would be DuPont. None are Cara 100 companies. None of the four stocks appeal to me for trading purposes except maybe MRK, which is in the Cara Distribution Zone with a Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 reading of (84.8)(80.8)(87.2), which you can see from the charts below.

For the others, the RSI-7 values are:
AA (67.9)(59.8)(40.5)
DD (66.7)(45.0)(46.9)
PFE (56.7)(63.6)(74.6)

I’d like to have the time to review the Value Line reports but time is of the essence today.

---

(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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AA charts

DD charts

MRK charts

PFE charts

None of these four are Cara 100 companies, although at one time Pfizer and Merck were favorites.

With Merck, maybe you can see what's going on here. There is a Sell-Side promotional campaign happening for MRK. The media stories that I have been referring to, recently and today, are planting the seed that (i) Merck's litigation problems are either basically over or overstated (ii) the company is a "reborn" company with much lower expenses and multiple new products in a rapidly filling pipeline that will carry the company to the industry leadership it once enjoyed.

For what it's worth, I believe (i) there is always an element of truth or believability to a con man or magician's presentation (ii) the public gets sucked into believing these stories because of hope and greed factors, and (iii) all companies are working hard to create shareholder value, but it is the Wall Street sales machine that makes some of them appear better than others -- until of course the storytellers want to move on to a new story (whereupon they dump their inventory positions to free up cash for the next play), not caring who gets left holding the bag.

The so-called financial services business is a brutal one. There is no place for traders who are afflicted with credulity syndrome.

Getting back to my point that MRK (the stock) is in the Distribution Zone (DZ), ie, Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 from 70 to 100, that's not to say it ought to be sold, ie distributed. DZ only represents a technical level where I would consider selling. The final decision is made on factors such as (i) a Daily RSI-7 that is falling and appears to be moving to a level below 70, (ii) an MACD indicator that looks to be peaking or sliding, (iii) a Stochastic (which is a hypersenstive form of RSI) is falling, (iv) share price is churning on higher than average volume, particularly on heavy news days (or Talking Head promotions) for the company or rising market days for the industry group or the broad market, and (v) the upcoming ex-dividend date (if the company pays dividends).

Then I have to consider (i) my assessment of risk/reward for the entire portfolio, (ii) the same factors for the company's industry group comparables, and (iii) my personal needs and resources at the time.

Selling, as you know, is a more difficult decision than buying. Its made easier simply by appreciating the fact that no trader ever hits tops or bottoms. The ego factor, which prevails in the fund management industry, is the downfall of most bad traders. Another dysfunctional group is the "Just Wanna Have Fun" people.

So, just by following the simple Accumulation/Distribution Rules over the years, you will find your trading (i) outperforming the past (ii) more mechanical, ie, less exciting, and (iii) now a matter of skill and experience that you can see slowly but surely building.

At the end of the day, you will come to see you are not investing (in products or companies), but you are trading prices, and that your motivation is to increase your financial wealth and lower your risk. You will look at trading as a process, a journey which has a right road and a wrong one, and with a few skills, some experience and a bit of determination you can make it on your own, and that you should make every possible effort to do it on your own. It is after all your capital.

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)(AXP: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 30: next one is due Jun. 29)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 23: next one is due Jun. 22)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

---

Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)(C: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)(DIS: Value Line Report Feb. 16: next one is due May 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 16: next one is due Jun. 15)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)(GM: Value Line Report Mar. 2: next one is due Jun. 1)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)(HD: Value Line Report Apr. 6: next one is due Jul. 6)

---

Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

---

IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

---

Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Mar. 2: next one is due Jun. 1)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 9: next one is due Jun. 8)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Feb. 16: next one is due May 18)

---

Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

---

Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

---

Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 20: next one is due Jul. 20)

---

Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Apr. 6: next one is due Jul. 6)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 30: next one is due Jun. 29)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb. 9: next one is due May 11)

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Wrap up:

What a gorgeous weekend in Toronto. The Spring has finally sprung. Spectacular. Sunday is my day to enjoy it.

Finally, I see that reader comments were not being accepted Saturday evening. On Sunday, I will look into it. It seems there is always work to do whatever the day, whatever the weather.

One of those comments I don't want you to miss. "Ron" is commenting about my opening remarks. Here is his comment:

A new comment has been posted on your blog Bill Cara, on entry #3370 (Week #16 (2007-04-21) in Review (FINAL)).

IP Address:
Name: Ron
Email Address:
URL:
Comments:

As a cynical former Navy doc and observer of the human condition I'll just add a few items

1) My mentor predicted that the fall of the Soviet Union would ultimately lead us to disaster as we became the buffer between US and every outlaw nation on earth

2) href="http://www.newscloud.com/read/81395/">http://www.newscloud.com/read/8
1395/ pretty much sums up the range of (bad) outcomes available...most will include increased energy prices

3) political decisions are made not based on value or price, but politics...every possible suitor for the White House will do nothing to impede their quest. I.e. they will not disqualify their claim on the Commander-in-Chief role and be seen as 'weak on defense'. It is never about you or me, as it is about them.

4) With the narrowing reserves between oil production and consumption, I concur that the US will have A PERMANENT MILITARY PRESENCE in Iraq, analagous to post WWII Germany.

5) I do believe Professor Bernanke to be a man of his word, and expect him to do everything he has done to continue to destroy the dollar via feckless credit expansion. Any concept of honor and central bankers must surely be misguided.

6) Will we ever do anything to address the coming pension crisis (see Texas this week) at the state and municipal level?

7) The answer for Social Security is simple. Those of us who have paid hundreds of thousands of dollars into the system will only be asked to collect less or nothing at an even greater age.

8) Free markets are dead. Everything is manipulated and one can only hope to play the game as well as possible amidst the gypsies, tramps, and thieves running the game.

Harsh? I guess so. But the first thing they do when you join the Navy is to teach you how to wear the uniform, the Navy Blues. And once you believe that black is blue, anything is possible.

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