Yesterday I was shocked and saddened to receive the following letter:

Hello - I found your email address on my brother's computer, and have the impression that you and Al were friends or colleagues. If you were indeed friends, then I am very sorry to let you know that my much-loved brother died a few weeks ago, on March 11. If the circumstances of his death are important to you as a friend, please feel free to get in touch and I will try to answer any questions you have.

sincerely,

Samantha Arnold

Assistant Professor, University of Winnipeg Department of Politics
Director, Institute for Human Rights and Global Studies, Global College Research Fellow, Centre for Defence and Security Studies (University of Manitoba)

I replied,

Samantha,

I am distressed to hear this news. Al last contacted me on Feb. 28 (which I soon after corrected to March 8 and 10 when I saw the importance of the date).

Below is his last message, which he submitted as a comment to my blog. He often wrote directly as well. He first wrote me August 10, 2006, and we corresponded often, but never met.

Do you have a number and time that is best to call?

/Bill

View this comment: http://www.billcara.com/archives/2007/02/caras_daytrader_bull_board_wed_14.html

IP Address: (hidden)
Name: tacktician
Email Address: (hidden)
URL:
Comments:

Eric,

Ebay has an active market in bullion.

Scotiabank (Toronto) also has a metals desk.
I used to go in there looking like a chimney sweep and buy 100oz silver bars for 5.85 an ounce.
The clerks sneered at me, sometimes I wore flip flops and my best Pau Hana!! I pointed out that you cant mine silver for 5.85 an ounce. Good times.

The next letter I received was most distressing.

Hi Bill - thanks for getting in touch; I have been doing what I can to contact people, but with only email addresses and message fragments to go on, I haven't known if I am reaching near-strangers or people with whom Al had regular correspondence - I gather you fall into the latter group.

You asked for my number – (hidden); I'm in Winnipeg. I would actually be interested in speaking to you a bit, either in person or by email, but I would like to give you a bit of context for my interest. If you were in receipt of a message from Al on March 10, given the nature of your blog, it may be that you already have some sense of what happened to my brother.

Until a few days before his death, Al was just as he always was - doing some renovations, playing the stock market, researching technology, riding his bike, and making travel plans for the future. There are gaps in what we know about what happened next, but we do know that by March 10 he was fully overtaken by a very complicated paranoid delusion - it centred on some role that he believes he had in the stock market crash a few weeks before, and involved fairly classic plotlines about being poisoned, chased, etc. By the afternoon of the 11th, we have been told by witnesses that he believed that we - his family - had all been killed by whomever was chasing him. He jumped off a bridge to his death the same afternoon.

I tell you all of this because when he contacted you on March 10, he was, we are quite certain, no longer himself, and I can only imagine at this point what he may have said to you in his message of that day. People who saw him in the last hours have told us that your name, among others, was mentioned several times by my brother as being part of the conspiracy against him. Perhaps you already know this from his message to you. Sadly, some of his best friends were also in that group, and so you were in good company - if he did say anything in those last messages that has troubled or confused you, I hope you understand that Al was already lost to us by then. Hopefully, that message was entirely banal, and none of this matters.

A heavy message from a stranger, yes? More than you wanted to know, perhaps, but I thought you should have a sense of what happened before you call, if that is still something you plan to do. If you decide not to, I understand, but I would be very interested to know more about that last message, and in particular, the time it was sent.

best regards,
Samantha

I replied at once,

Samantha,

I am truly shocked, and I feel badly for you.

Yes, I was surprised at Al's final letter because it contained no subject heading other than my name, and was merely a few words that I did not understand. See below. On March 8, he seemed his normal self, although maybe you will be surprised at the contents (see below).

As most days I receive several hundred direct letters, I did not respond. Also, I had just finished a tiring four day convention and my health slipped back (I had pneumonia in January and have been coughing for three solid months, and seeing doctors and all), so I was responding only to a few people.

In fact I have not responded to many letters since getting pneumonia, where I was in bed for five weeks. My last letter to Al was Jan. 29.

Al's initial letter to me back in August offered much needed computer help and I had forwarded it to my chief techie. I have been busy trying to organize in the past couple months to a point where I was going to ask Al to help directly.

I have over 100,000 readers in over 140 countries, but I had spotted Al as being one of the few talents who might help the community that has sprung up around me. I am saddened that he made the ultimate decision to no longer help people. I will miss him.

I shall call you on Saturday morning.

Btw, I see you are a graduate of WLU, as am I. Many years ago, I was awarded the scholastic medal for top marks in the business school. That four years in Waterloo was one of the best times of my life.

Until tomorrow,

/Bill

-----Original Message-----
From: alarnold@(hidden)
Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2007 1:56 PM
To: Bill Cara
Subject: Bill

how would you advise here?

-------------------------

On March 8, Al wrote under the subject heading: "Pile on or run for the exits"

Accounting shenanigans well presented:
http://www.som.yale.edu/faculty/Sunder/FinancialFraud/Frank-Common%20Financial%20Fraud%20Schemes%207May%2003v1.doc

I used to work for a magician once a week running the smoke machine and operating the elevation machine and other effects. People want to be fooled. I had another gig with a hypnotist. people will do whatever you tell them to do. Its kind of wierd how those experiences helped me to trade better.

have a great day.

Here are sample letters from Al. You will see how much he wanted to help this community.

Aug 11, 2006:

"I was surprised that about 75 pct of you wanted e-mail alerts, and so I will set up a system for that as well, once I understand what info you want to be alerted to."

http://www.billcara.com/archives/2006/08/survey_results.html#more

Hi Mr. Cara,

Email alerts are my hobby. I have a Linux 686i machine located in BC
- via netnation - dedicated to email alerts.

I can write scripts to do just about anything, for example I have a script that will calculate the NAV of CEF - every ten minutes - and alert me to market premium situations. I have been instantly alerted to any move in the silver market since 2002. I have a program that combs what I call "surface news" and simply counts words. The machine visits 200 webpages at 20 minute intervals then, for example, counts the number of time the word "terror" is used and charts the results. I find the results fascinating.

I would be most interested in learning more about the alerts your readers want. Anything that exists in the internet realm is fair game including on the fly calculations and reporting. Let me know, I do this stuff for free.

Best,

Al Arnold
Toronto

Aug 13, 2006
(after our lengthy telephone call and then receiving my letter, also included with his mail)

Bill,

I can automate all of those tasks. Updates at the push of a button.

My system works well with Yahoo Finance. I just need a list of symbols and the info format you want. $price, $bid, $ask, $volume, $news,.. etc.

What do you need/want to get done first? Its all doable.
I've got some time for this tomorrow and could have something installed and functioning for you mid week.

I opened a window for you at:
(hidden)
Username:bcara password:bcara

Al

On Sat, 12 Aug 2006, Bill Cara wrote:

> Al,
>
> Further to our discussion,
>
> I attached the Week In Review worksheet for today, plus a template.
>
> I manually enter all this data usually between 5am and 6am every
> Saturday morning (or as soon after that as I can get to it) from two
> sources: All data comes from HYPERLINK
> "http://www.investertech.com/"www.investertech.com
> except for the block in lines 52 through 65, which I get from
> HYPERLINK "http://www.stockcharts.com/"www.StockCharts.com.
>
> I was going to have volunteers do this, but once the retrieval is
> automated I could avoid that step.
>
> Also, using the same format for the Dow 30 at the bottom, I’d like to
> be able to get the Cara 100.
>
> If this is doable, I’d like to capture for the Cara 100 and the Dow
> 30, all info published in the media/blogs about them, so that I could
> easily review it before I publish an article. I know that Yahoo has
> News/Blogs News, but you may have a better list of sources.
>
> Investertech is likely to be able to give me a downloadable file of
> their data for my blog – sometime soon apparently, which is why I
> held off going to volunteers. But, I’d like to know if you can do it
> because I never count on vendors like (hidden).
>
> Let me know if this is something you could do.
>
> /Bill

The correspondence went on like this for the next five months.

The comments Al made to the blog, in addition to the earlier stated one, were:

Jan. 8, 2007-04-07

Name: tacktician
Email Address: (hidden)
Comments:

Who is John Galt?

sorry, could'nt resist. Chavez nationalizing "railroads" and all...

Name: tacktician
Email Address: (hidden)
Comments:

Im not so sure, as I indicated here a few weeks ago I sold my PM and sidelined myself.

Fortune's 2007 Investor Guide had a stack of kilo bars on the cover, numerous retail magazines have gold coins and stacks of silver bars...
thats my cue to sell. When I bought PM's my advisor said it was dead money.
Five years later, the piper plays a different tune.

The market narrative is predictable. Clearly if making money were easy everyone would be doing it.

Name: tacktician
Email Address: (hidden)
Comments:

Im sidelined and cautious.

Sold my paper gold and silver last Monday for above my target. Methinks a bit of black box mal-function over at the central fund. I just traded the numbers.
My black box worked *perfectly*

Im starting to think the PM's are a honey-pot.

I think we've got some red hats painted blue.

Cheers!

Thanks Bill for the blog. I'd download this blog at 640 kbps from the middle of the carib sea if I had to!

Nov. 30, 2006

Name: tacktician
Email Address: (hidden)
Comments:

Re: CEF

I sold some CEF on Monday, trading was 17% over NAV.
I am buying those same re-priced shares back today if I can, looks like the premium has eased back to 6% over.

Nov. 27, 2006

Name: tacktician
Email Address: (hidden)
Comments:

I sold today. Buyers were aggressive.
A dream come true.
Waiting for the next pullback...

Name: tacktician
Email Address: (hidden)
Comments:

Silver on fire, Indeed.

Years ago I was working as a cabinet maker. Every other Friday after work I would go down to Scotiabank head office metals desk in Toronto, the ground floor of that sleek office tower. I would buy a 100oz bar of silver - those nice poured JM ones - cost me a weeks wages all in.

I honestly think they thought I was a fool...
They got some paper, I got 100oz of silver.
I knew I was onto something when I was escorted around by two armed guards. Not sure how many people actually bought "physical" but I did my part.

Thanks Bill for one of the best resources on the internet.

Name: tacktician
Email Address: (hidden)
Comments:

I agree, silver looks strong and I've been watching it for years.

Central Fund of Canada AMEX:CEF TSE:CEF-A Current bullion holdings:
Au 680026 ounces
Ag 33995514 ounces
16.7mm cash.
104654523 shares outstanding.

Average trading last few sessions 9.4% premium over NAV. Sometimes goes 14 pct over.
NAV moves sharply up/down on any big silver moves.

Those recent changes in silver inventory in the COT reports are due to CEF taking physical delivery. I have a feeling we will have some Ag/Au action this fall.

Au 621.60 Ag 12.30 Oil 73.65 Rate 1.1078

You can see that Al was consumed with silver trading. But he also had a worldly perspective. Here is a letter he wrote me on Feb. 27, 2007, which was 12 days before his suicide:

Hi Bill,

I watched CNBC today at about 5PM.

At one point he had seven "experts" on and he was deep into his blame china theme, the screen was the seven nodding experts in little boxes like hollywood squares or the brady bunch, he asked them "So all eyes on China... when does this China market open up again anyway?"

They all just blanked out, not one had the answer. Not one of them could say when the Shanghai market opens for trading. I was even embarrassed for them.

Just blame China. They all look the same. Has nothing to do with fundamentals here. Nooo. Its all those over-extended greedy chinese speculators using their home equity in the stock market. They are not "sophisticated" enough to invest with due care... etc etc. They monkey with the currency markets, flood our stores with junk. we should nuke them.

Cheers.

Al was also keenly interested in the blog and in my upcoming book. Here is what he wrote me on Jan. 29, 2007:

Hi Bill,

Good to hear your health has improved.

Your blog was noticeably rudderless without you, shows clearly your helmsmanship...

Helmsmanship

Helmsmanship is the ability of a seaman to steer a vessel:
Some knowledge can be gleaned in a classroom or from a book, but true ability comes only from actual experience. Be aware that helmsmanship "rules" are only general statements because boats, like seamen, have individual characteristics. Their specific strengths and weaknesses are unique. Obviously, a boat with a shallow draft will handle differently than one with a deep draft. Outboards and inboard/outboards are steered by changing their thrust direction, and react differently than rudder-steered boats. Heavy, slow displacement hulls will react differently than light, fast planing hulls. When you take the helm of any boat for the first time, relax and get to know her. Don't force large corrections. As much as possible, let her find her own way through the waves.

Compensating at the Helm:
When a craft swings and changes course, the inexperienced helmsman tends to oversteer because of the lag between the turning of the wheel and the craft's actual response. The experienced helmsman will return the rudder to midships before the boat actually reaches the new heading. In some cases, he or she may use some opposite rudder action to check the craft's swinging motion.

Yawing:
Yawing from side to side on an exaggerated, crooked course is a sure sign of a novice "at the helm." To keep your craft on a straight course, you must "anticipate." Only by constantly observing the boat's swing can you quickly correct her course with just a little rudder. Turn the helm slowly. Sudden movement is the mark inexperience.

Pick a Point to Steer By:
Choose an obvious landmark: a rock formation, church steeple, or at night, a star. Use such reference points for general direction and drop your eyes occasionally to check your course on the compass. Never steer by cloud formations, they not only move, but change shape.

Let the Sea Dictate to You:
The direction and speed of waves relative to your craft can have a great effect on your ability to steer. Driving into a head sea, you'll want to slow your craft and/or alter course slightly for a more comfortable ride. You may also have to correct for the swing of the bow with slight rudder changes. Overtaking waves in a following sea have a tendency to lift and carry your stern. You must anticipate this effect and compensate with adequate rudder. An overtaking, following sea creates a dangerous situation. In severe cases, the waves can lift your stern, set your craft sideways and capsize you (broach). This can happen offshore, but most commonly occurs when waves break as you're entering an inlet. In a following sea, it is always best to proceed at least as rapidly as the waves are moving.

Bill, I see you as an experienced Captain, "navigating" the world markets in any weather, having a moral compass, independent, and successful...

I honestly think sailing would sell better than dancing.

Think of the possibilities: the doldrums, the rogue wave, a broad reach, downwind wing and wing... fear, greed, freedom, wealth, mobility of capital...

Ok, Ive had some wine.

(About your suggestions for a book title)

1. "Cara's Crystal Ball: Trading Profitably in an Uncertain World"
Plain vanilla. all authors make those claims...
Cara's Crystal ball? Is that transferable to a slob like me?

2. "Cara's Crystal Ball: Toolbox of a Trader Wizard"
Interesting, id have a look at it. skills and drills.

3. "The Market's Dance: Learning to lead or follow"
Most guys dont dance. statistically. and those who dont are intimidated

4. "Dancing with Capital Markets"
I want to make, protect and grow money not embarrass myself.

5. "Dancing with Wall Street"

6. "We Trade Prices not Companies"
Who's we?

7. "Trading Prices, Preserving Capital - 30 years experience from the CEO of two trading houses"
I like that. I get to trade, not lose, and the guy has experience.

8. "Trading Prices: Bill Cara's Guide to Profitably Riding the Ebb and Flow of the Financial Markets"
I feel richer already. And smart.

9. "Taking Down Wall Street: Bill Cara's Populist Guide to Markets and the Factors That Move Them"
Is that a white paper? Sounds like rough sledding ahead. Do I have to think?

10. "Saying No to Wall Street: The Cara Approach to Capital Markets"
No? What about "How to One-Up Wall Street: The Cara Approach to Markets"

11. "The Cara Way: Trading & Investing Wisdom for Wealth Creation and Preservation"
Maybe.

12. "Cara: Mastering the Trade"
Anyone (Canadian) who doesnt know who you are would think of Cara Foods. CAO was it?

13. "Playbook of a Stock Operator (or Trader Wizard)"
A crib on Reminicenses of a Stock Operator obviously. Too bad that ones taken.

14. "Wizdom of the Trader Wizard: Bill Cara on Capital Markets, Investing & Social Equity"
Id pick that up.

15. "Wizdom of the Trader Wizard: A Neo-Capitalist's Guide to Investing"
Maybe.
_________________________________________________________________

Well, those are my comments. FYI, my last Chapters purchase from the "investing" isle was Empire of Debt. I like the doom and gloom narrative right now, Bill Bonner has a knack with history and I enjoyed the perspective.

I look forward to your book.

Again, great to hear your feeling better.

Al

I passed that letter on to my publisher. After a while of receiving a flood of such mail, my publisher replied: “You don’t have a blog; you have a cult.”

After Al first contacted me with his proposal to help, I contacted him by phone, and we spoke at length. But as time passed, I realized that managing volunteers – so many, and so much talent being offered – was just not doable with the amount of time I have. Some of you have even volunteered to manage the task of managing the army of volunteers.

Here’s my dilemma. I started this blog for personal reasons. I needed some intellectual stimulation in retirement, and I also needed a distraction from the awful reality of watching my parents die for that difficult last 15 months or so. Then I realized that a new dynamic had taken control: I had given birth to a virtual community of like-minded persons from all over the world and that I needed to help them. Finally, I came to realize that many of you were hanging on my every word and that my personal interests had become an obligation to society that weighs heavily on me. I knew that I had set myself up where I could not fail you, but would, as I did Al.

In writing this blog, I have a lot of responsibility, and I have to walk a fine line. I have had parents tell me I am now part of the home schooling program for their children, so I have to be careful not to discuss sex or religion or to allow it in comments. I have had Jews calling me anti-Semite because I speak out about the practices of Humungous Bank & Broker. I have Americans calling me unpatriotic for apparently not chastising the enemies of America. I have offended Brits and Europeans by making ill-conceived references to WWII bombing, and lately by suggesting that maybe the Iranian government may not be the only liar on the world stage. I have been accused of being a Bush-basher, when sadly had I been American I probably would have voted for him.

At times, when you are just trying to live life, you get that feeling there is no winning. Al Arnold must have felt that way. From personal records, his family believes I was the last person he turned to for answers: "Bill: how would you advise here."

It’s not that I feel that I failed Al, but I could have done more. The reality is I wish I could do more for all of you.

Still, I feel, take it or leave it; I do what I can do. I know that the blog is making a positive impact, and that I am always trying to improve it. What else can I do?

I will now leave the Week In Review until tomorrow, so that our thoughts and prayers can stay today at least with Al Arnold.

Hi Bill - I am attaching two photos, which you may use - or not - as you see fit in your text about Al. I am truly touched by your desire to honour Al in this way, and appreciate your kind words. As I said on the phone, your's was an opinion that Al respected and trusted. best regards, Samantha

ARNOLD, Albert Al's family sadly announces that Al died, suddenly, on March 11th, 2007. Al was born in Hamilton on March 19, 1969, and moved to Toronto as a child. He has been a constant source of joy and amazement to everyone who was lucky enough to be a part of his life. He was a wonderful craftsman, an avid cyclist, a reader of Thoreau, a humourist, a traveller and an adventurer. He was adored by his family, and we will miss him terribly ... cherishing every memory we have of him. Al leaves behind his mother Pat Cochrane, his sisters Samantha Arnold and Kazia Slusarenko, their partners Steven Kavanaugh and John Pitts, and was the much loved 'Uncle' to his treasured niece and nephew Georgia (daughter of Samantha and Steve) and Benjamin (son of Kazia and John). Al was much loved by his aunt Barb and uncle Jim Stevenson of Smithville, and by many members of our extended family. Al was predeceased by his father Albert Arnold. The family will receive friends at the HUMPHREY FUNERAL HOME - A.W. MILES CHAPEL, 1403 Bayview Avenue (south of Eglinton Avenue East) from 6-9 p.m. on Wednesday, March 14th. A private funeral will follow the next day. Flowers gratefully declined; we know Al would prefer you to do something special with someone you love to celebrate his precious life.

Al, I’d like to add, even if I never met you face to face, it was good to know you, “tacktician”. Clearly you marched to your own drummer; you went where the wind took you. You cared enough to want to help people. That’s the best we can hope for in life.